October 29, 2012 Tom Moore Air Quality Program Manager Western Governors’ Association WESTAR Council Meeting.

October 29, 2012

Tom Moore

Air Quality Program Manager

Western Governors’ Association

WESTAR Council Meeting

WRAP regional technical support

NAAQS Implementation and MaintenanceData for future infrastructure and transport SIPs

Exceptional EventsDevelop technical support data and analysis protocols

Implementation of Regional Haze SIPsIdentify and execute technical work needed for 2018 plans

Needs of sub-regional groups of statesCurrently oil and gasSimilar efforts in past

Applying Data from Western Regional Technical Studies

Leveraged studies address both regulatory planning needs and fill gaps where data are needed

Tracking key western source categories / source areas

Analysis of Ozone and PM background and transport during elevated episodes Background data for SIP planning Includes impacts of fire on ozone

Better oil & gas, fire, biogenics emissions data Improves assessment of natural vs. anthropogenic contributions

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Coordination on Analysis and Planning

WRAP working as regional technical center

Facilitate communication – forum for discussion

Interconnected series of regional technical projects

Management of ongoing emissions and modeling studies Reviewed / coordinated with federal agencies, states, and locals

Coordinated through WESTAR Planning and Technical Committees to identify needs and SIP applications

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Implementing a regional modeling framework

West-Wide Jumpstart Air Quality Modeling Study (funding by State of NM, BP, and BLM national air program)

Regional results provide data and context for state and federal planning Most current transport and background studiesMeteorological and emissions modeling

Regionally consistent, High resolution, Comprehensive

Photochemical modeling 2008 base case model performance evaluation with Ozone / PM source apportionment

Improve awareness of Study Increase understanding of elementsToward goal of providing a regional modeling framework

Draft Modeling Plan and Source Apportionment Design Plan – released last week for month-long comment period

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WestJumpAQMS Area

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CAMx Source Apportionment Modeling

Regional Ozone Source Apportionment – 2 typesType 1 - Anthropogenic vs. Natural contributionsType 2 - Ozone formation potential, all sources, including Natural

Particulate Source ApportionmentSulfateNitrateAmmoniumPrimary PM (carbon and dust)

2 tiers of Source Apportionment Modeling

Ozone Source Apportionment – (Type 1, as an example)

Ozone SeasonWestern State Source Regions2 Source Categories

AnthropogenicNatural

Initial Source Apportionment Modeling

Ozone from State Regions by Anthropogenic-Natural categories Just described

Ozone formation potential from all sources, including Natural1 Source Region & Anthropogenic-Natural categoriesExamine VOC-limited vs. NOX-limited Ozone Formation

Particulate from State Regions by Anthropogenic-Natural categoriesLike first Ozone type above, only for PM chemical species

2nd tier of additional apportionment with more source categories and/or sub-state spatial regions possible

On-Line Source Apportionment Visualization Tool

Source Apportionment modeling produces lots of information

Extract key information at sites for on-line visualization tool AQS, IMPROVE, etc.

Allow users to drill down into Source Apportionment results for sites and sources of interest

CENRAP Visualization Tool for Regional Haze planning - example CAMx PSAT 36 km CONUS State-specific PM 2002 / 18 Visibility impacts at Class I areas Example – Rocky Mountain National Park

Example non-WestJumpAQMS work - 2018 Worst Visibility at Rocky Mountain NP

Ranked Contributions by Source Region and Category

Tracking and Managing Smoke

Significant impacts to both local and regional air qualityLarge summer wildfiresPrescribed and agricultural burns in spring and fall

States & tribes manage both planned burns & wildfire impactsFLM Joint Fire Science Program project enables continuing operation of

WRAP’s Fire Emissions Tracking System (http://www.wrapfets.org/)Used daily by western states, tribes, and federal agencies to track

planned fire and manage smokeFETS

Used by states and OAQPS to evaluate 2008 NEI Fire activity and emissions data being sent to EPA for 2011 NEI

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DEASCO3 project - purpose & goals

• Assess fire’s impact on elevated ozone episodes with retrospective studies

• Studies of fire and ozone in 2002 through 2008

• Outcomes• Support future collaborative FLM-state ozone air quality planning• Develop “lessons learned”, basic analysis rules for fire-ozone episodes,

and online tools for FLM-state air quality planning• Prepare and implement planning-grade fire emissions inventories in

FETS suitable for SIP work by states & FLMs• Collaboration involving EPA western RO and FLM staff, leverages

WestJumpAQMS• Products for FLMs and states to use in SIP process and Exceptional

Events demonstrations

Fire Activity Data (acres/day)

Loading Moisture

EmissionsModel

distribute emissions

Chemical Profiles

loft emissionsFETS

DEASCO3

DEASCO3 – questions to be tested

Technical

Does smoke from fire contribute to background concentrations of Ozone across large areas of the U.S.?

To what degree does fire/smoke management affect formation of Ozone?

When, where, and how much does fire cause/contribute to Ozone exceedances?

Policy/Planning

What improved quantitative information will help FLMs assess the use of smoke management techniques to address nonattainment issues?

What information is needed in the Online Tool to help FLMs to be more effective in air quality planning processes?

WestJump AQMS

2008 NEIv2 (USFS collaboration)

Leveraging

DEASCO3

Improved AQ Planning

PMDETAIL

Exceptional Event applications

Regional Haze: Reasonable Progress Reports(remaining EPA grant funds for contractor support)

WRAP producing a comprehensive, regionally-consistent technical reportRegional, state, and Class I area reportsTechnical analyses required by Regional Haze RuleWestern states will use as a common basis in preparing individual

SIP revisionsSIP revisions due 2013-15

WRAP providing western 2008 emissions data States will use to evaluate changes in monitored visibility

Project timeframe: Completion in 2012

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Oil & Gas: Emissions Inventories and Control Analysis(funding by Western Energy Alliance , EPA, States of WY and ND, BLM)

• Key source for Ozone / PM standards, & Regional Haze

• Exploration and production activity continue to increase

• Data in use current OAQPS national & western modeling work• Significant funding and involvement by industry• Open review and discussion process with all interested stakeholders

• Linkages• WestJumpAQMS• 3-State Air Quality Study • New project funded by BLM MT-Dakotas office

• 2011 base & projection years’ EI for Williston & Montana Great Plains Basins 19

Federal Leadership Forum / 3-State Air Quality Study(funded by BLM, USFS, EPA, others in-kind)

Steering committee of WY, CO, UT, EPA, BLM, NPS, and USFS

Implementation of 3-State and national MOUs - objectives:Facilitate more complete and consistent air quality analysis for NEPA and

other air quality decisions Improve timeliness Reduce duplication of air quality analyses resulting in lower costs Improve collaboration

Planning for air quality impacts of energy developmentOzone focus, additional rural monitoring stations in oil & gas basinsWintertime ozone nonattainment areas Integrates results from WestJumpAQMS and Oil & Gas projects Data warehouse to support future air quality modeling and other analyses

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Future 3-State Air Quality Study work planned

• Workplan through 2014 approved in early October• Completes warehouse

• Activities to be completed by late 2012 – early 2013– Data integration—WestJumpAQMS and other datasets from

cooperators– Technical Committee to develop data acceptance criteria– Monitoring – ongoing– Modeling-Emissions improvement work with Warehouse staff

• Remainder of 2013– Modeling of Base Case and Future Case– Secure outside funding for ongoing monitoring / warehouse O&M and

modeling updates

WestJumpAQMS Schedule

Lengthy delay while waiting for 2008 NEIV2.0

Products - WRAP webpage: http://www.wrapair2.org/WestJu

mpAQMS.aspx

13 Emissions MemosVarious StagesEmissions modeling

complete October 2012

Draft Modeling Protocol & Source Apportionment Design Review and comment October –

November 2012

2008 Base Case ModelingNovember - December 2012

Source Apportionment January - March 2013

Final ReportMarch – May 2013

WestJumpAQMS - key next steps

Need feedback from states, feds, others on:Source Apportionment approach and

thoughts about representing the results,

andLocations for extracting Source

Apportionment results, if results beyond monitoring sites are wanted

Next Steps for WRAP

Continue regional analysis and planning support activities

Potential opportunity for Western regional analysis of fire and dust exceptional events:

Protocol to follow in conducting analysis Determine incremental contribution by event, beyond “nominal”

condition Provide results to state and federal air programs to assist in

Exceptional Events flagging and air planning activities Track background and transport

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