BEAT MARKET October 2021 Patrick Manzi, NADA Chief Economist Ford GM Market Share, by manufacturer Percent share of market (also indicated by size of circle) 2.0% 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 1% 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 -1.2 -1.4 -1.6 -1.8 -2.2 -2.0 ● Gain ● No change ● Loss All figures are year to date/year-to-date changes. *Other is JLR, Lucid, Mitsubishi, Rivian, Tesla, Volvo -2.4 -2.6 Nissan Market Share, by powertrain Diesel 4.0% Hybrid 5.3% Electric 2.8% Plug-in hybrid 1.1% Gasoline 86.8% SUV 9.4% 4.6% Van Crossover Pickup 18.0% Small Car 9.2% Large Car 0.6% 8.2% Midsized Car Luxury Car 4.8% Market Share, by segment 45.2% Subaru Mazda Other* Hyundai- Kia Daimler VW October 2021 Y/Y % Jan - Oct 2021 YTD/YTD % Total Car 2.59 -32.0% 3.48 5.5% Total Light Truck 10.40 -17.5% 11.93 11.0% Domestic Light Vehicle 10.15 -20.7% 11.65 7.5% Import Light Vehicle 2.84 -21.1% 3.75 17.2% Total Light Vehicle SAAR 12.99 -20.8% 15.40 9.6% U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales (Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates) Stellantis Honda Toyota New light-vehicle sales in October 2021 saw their first month-to-month gain since April. The October SAAR totaled 13 million units, down 20.8% from October 2020 but up 6.3% from September 2021. October sales began with the lowest inventory levels on record, at 972,000 units, and the low inventory continues to keep sales rates below current market demand. We don’t expect that October’s month-end inventory levels will show significant change from September. In this tight market, OEMs continue to prioritize retail deliveries over fleet deliveries. According to J.D. Power, fleet sales are expected to account for just 13% of new-vehicle sales in October. In October 2021 light-truck market share topped 80% for the first time, representing 80.2% of all new light vehicles sold. Through the first 10 months of the year, light trucks have accounted for 77.2% of new-vehicle sales. After setting a record in September 2021, average new light-vehicle transaction prices are expected to set a new record of just under $44,000, says J.D. Power. Prices have risen due to limited new-vehicle supplies and reduced OEM incentive spending. Accordingly, average incentive spending per unit is also expected to hit a new record low of $1,628. Consumers facing these rising prices have benefited from very strong trade-in values. J.D. Power estimates that the average trade-in value is up 70% year over year. For the rest of 2021 we expect that dealers will continue to sell most of their inventory soon after it reaches their lots as they work their way through their customer order books. Therefore, we foresee little change to overall inventory levels before year-end. Invento- ry levels should begin to slowly and steadily increase throughout 2022, but will likely remain below pre-COVID levels. Our forecast for new light-vehicle sales in 2021 is 15.2 million units. NATIONAL AUTOMOBILE DEALERS ASSOCIATION 8484 Westpark Drive, Suite 500 | Tysons, VA 22102 SOURCE: Wards Intelligence
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BEATMARKET
October 2021
Patrick Manzi, NADA Chief Economist
Ford
GM
Market Share, by manufacturer
Percent share of market (also indicated by size of circle)
2.0%
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
1% 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-1.2
-1.4
-1.6
-1.8
-2.2
-2.0
● Gain ● No change ● LossAll figures are year to date/year-to-date changes.
*Other is JLR, Lucid, Mitsubishi, Rivian, Tesla, Volvo
-2.4
-2.6
Nissan
Market Share, by powertrain
Diesel 4.0%Hybrid 5.3%Electric 2.8%Plug-in hybrid 1.1%
Gasoline 86.8%
SUV9.4% 4.6%
VanCrossoverPickup18.0%
Small Car9.2%
Large Car0.6%8.2%
Midsized Car Luxury Car4.8%
Market Share, by segment
45.2%
Subaru
Mazda
Other*
Hyundai-Kia
Daimler
VW
October 2021 Y/Y % Jan - Oct 2021 YTD/YTD %
Total Car 2.59 -32.0% 3.48 5.5%
Total Light Truck 10.40 -17.5% 11.93 11.0%
Domestic Light Vehicle 10.15 -20.7% 11.65 7.5%
Import Light Vehicle 2.84 -21.1% 3.75 17.2%
Total Light Vehicle SAAR 12.99 -20.8% 15.40 9.6%
U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales(Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates)
Stellantis
Honda
Toyota
New light-vehicle sales in October 2021 saw their first month-to-month gain since April. The October SAAR totaled 13 million units, down 20.8% from October 2020 but up 6.3% from September 2021. October sales began with the lowest inventory levels on record, at 972,000 units, and the low inventory continues to keep sales rates below current market demand. We don’t expect that October’s month-end inventory levels will show significant change from September. In this tight market, OEMs continue to prioritize retail deliveries over fleet deliveries. According to J.D. Power, fleet sales are expected to account for just 13% of new-vehicle sales in October. In October 2021 light-truck market share topped 80% for the first time, representing 80.2% of all new light vehicles sold. Through the first 10 months of the year, light trucks have accounted for 77.2% of new-vehicle sales. After setting a record in September 2021, average new light-vehicle transaction prices are expected to set a new record of just under $44,000, says J.D. Power. Prices have risen due to limited new-vehicle supplies and reduced OEM incentive spending. Accordingly, average incentive spending per unit is also expected to hit a new record low of $1,628. Consumers facing these rising prices have benefited from very strong trade-in values. J.D. Power estimates that the average trade-in value is up 70% year over year. For the rest of 2021 we expect that dealers will continue to sell most of their inventory soon after it reaches their lots as they work their way through their customer order books. Therefore, we foresee little change to overall inventory levels before year-end. Invento-ry levels should begin to slowly and steadily increase throughout 2022, but will likely remain below pre-COVID levels. Our forecast for new light-vehicle sales in 2021 is 15.2 million units.
NATIONAL AUTOMOBILE DEALERS ASSOCIATION8484 Westpark Drive, Suite 500 | Tysons, VA 22102
SOURCE: Wards Intelligence
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