Oceans, Watersheds, and People: Facts, Myths, and Realities Steve Colt ([email protected]) and Henry Huntington June 18, 2002 Comments welcome.

Oceans, Watersheds, and People: Oceans, Watersheds, and People: Facts, Myths, and RealitiesFacts, Myths, and Realities

Steve Colt ([email protected])

and

Henry HuntingtonJune 18, 2002

Comments welcome

Our Talk

• Part 1: Great Expectations, or “How Alaskans use their oceans and watersheds”

• Part 2: Myths, or “Perception versus reality in assessing the state of human-ocean interactions”

• Part 3: A Challenge, or “Can we hope to manage all this?”

Part 1: Great Expectations

• Alaskans use their oceans and watersheds for many things

• Only one community – Anaktuvuk Pass – lacks access to anadromous fish

• Societal forces help determine how people respond to the ocean-watershed ecosystem

84,000 Alaska Jobs Depend on Healthy Ecosystems (circa 1998)

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Indirect

Direct

26% of all Alaska Jobs Depend on Healthy Ecosystems

Direct, Ecosystem-

Related17%

Indirect, Ecosystem-

related9%

Other74%

Total 1998 Alaska Employment = 317,350

Uses: Commercial FishingUses: Commercial Fishing

• Alaska produces over half the nation’s domestic catch of fish

• Especially important in many coastal communities

• Allocations are contentious

• Environmental impacts may be significant

19,928 direct jobs 33,670 total jobs

Uses: Sport Fishing

• One of the most popular uses of marine and anadromous resources

• One of four Alaska residents bought a license in 2001 – but resident use is flat

• Many tourists come to Alaska to fish

• 6,635 direct jobs ~ 9,236 total jobs

Nonresidents want Alaska Fish!

-

50

100

150

200

250

30019

89

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

Nu

mb

er

of

Lic

en

ses

(000

)

Non-resident

Resident

Source: CNF calculations using data from ADFG (1989-98)

Uses: Subsistence

• Great cultural, spiritual, nutritional, and economic importance

• Hundreds of pounds per person per year in some villages

• Sharing networks extend throughout the state, spreading the benefits

• 2,000 direct cash economy jobs (providing inputs)

Uses: Tourism

• Alaska’s marine environment is a major attraction

• “Soft adventure” is fastest growing segment, but…

• Many residents dislike the associated impacts (e.g., helicopters)

16,871 direct jobs 25,512 total jobs

Uses: Recreation• Hard/impossible to measure - overlaps with

tourism and sport fishing

• Important to many residents as a key benefit of living in Alaska (“permanent tourists”)

• The marine area is very popular

7,200 direct jobs 9,800 total jobs

Uses: Transportation• Ease of shipping determines many city and

village locations• Most of Alaska’s resources (oil, timber,

minerals) are exported via the sea• Accidents, such as the Exxon Valdez, are a

threat to the marine environment

Uses: Offshore Development

• Oil and gas prospects are found all around Alaska

• Conflicts with commercial fishing have halted some leasing and exploration

• Offshore development does not depend on a healthy marine ecosystem

Part 2: Myths

• There are many accepted “truths” about the human-ocean relationship

• Facts often do not support these “truths”

• Continued reliance on the myths may impede effective management of our oceans and watersheds

• We provide five examples – there are others

Myth 1: Alaska’s social and economic health closely tracks

changes in marine resource availability and world markets

• Great volatility in ecosystems and world markets in past decade

• Demographics are almost boring by comparison

• Are mid- and long-term changes greater?

Census.shplost 24-42%lost 6% - 24%lost 6% - gained 12%gained 12%--30%gained 30% - 49%

Alaska Population Change 1990-2000

Fastest and Slowest Growing Areas

Total Population Change 1990-2000:Census Areas

14%22%

-2%

49%

24% 23%

2% -5% -11%

-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

Mat

Su

N S

lope

Dill

ingh

an

Ken

ai

Ala

ska

Ket

chik

an

Prin

ceW

ales

Wra

ngel

l-P

sbg

Bris

tol

Bay

Myth 2: Tourism is “the next big thing” for Alaska’s economy

• Growth is slower: Summer arrivals grew at 7% per year 1989-98 but only 1.1%/yr 1998-2001

• What are tourists after, and how much can we provide?

• How important is a healthy marine ecosystem for tourism?

• How much economy can tourism actually support? • Can eco- and cultural tourism really help rural

economies?

Tourism Growth has Slowed

Summer Visitor Arrivals 1989-2001(May - September)

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2001

tho

usa

nd

s o

f a

rriv

als

Cruise

Domestic Air

Highway

Ferry

Myth 3: Rapidly increasing human use is stressing the marine ecosystem

• Many Coastal populations are “flat”• Use patterns are shifting

– Fishing flat, timber declining, tourism footprint is expanding, “quality of life industry” is growing

• Conflicts among uses are increasing– E.g., mariculture vs. ecotourism– Or, sport vs. commercial fishing

Overall Population Growth is Slow

Alaska 1.3 % per year

Anchorage 1.4 % per year

Mat Su 4.1 % per year

Kodiak Island 0.4% per year

Ketchikan Borough 0.2% per year

Aleutians West - 5.4% per year

But, some places show rapid change

Big Lake 6.0 % per year

Haines 4.2 % per year

Selawik 2.9 % per year

Ketchikan City - 0.4% per year

St. Paul - 3.4% per year

And, a population pulse is coming

Population Pyramid Coastal 2000

15 10 5 0 5 10 15

0 to 4

15 to 19

30 to 34

45 to 49

60 to 64

75 to 79

percent

Males Females

Myth 4: Alaska is different and lessons from elsewhere do not apply

• Alaska is remote, sparsely populated

• But other northern regions are, too– Nunavut, Greenland are much less populated

• Ecosystems do not reflect the idiosyncrasies of their human neighbors

• Ecosystems may not notice who the user is

Words of Wisdom

“The legislature passes game laws, and nobody pays any attention to them after they are passed. Why? Because we insist on considering wild animals as our remote forefathers considered them, when men were scarce and wild animals were plenty.”

--Commissioners of Fisheries of Massachusetts, 1868

Caution from the Atlantic

• Newfoundland cod crashed despite protectionism

• Catches were stable for a decade prior to the crash

Canadian

All nations

Year1960 1970 1980 1990

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

(Haedrich and Hamilton 2000)

Caution from the Salmon industry

• Farmed salmon are more than half of world supply

• Alaska volume may be going up, but world price is going down

• We don’t live in an economic vacuum• Traditional extractive industries cannot

grow the economy forever (max out ecosystem or the economy generates substitutes)

Farmed Salmon dominates world markets

World Salmon Supply

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

thou

sand

s of

met

ric

tons

Other Wild

Alaska

Farmed

Value of Alaska salmon is down

Wholesale Value, Ex-Vessel Value, & Processing Margin After Adjusting for Inflation: All Alaska Salmon

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

1600.0

1800.0

Note: "Processing Margin" = First Wholesale Value - Ex Vessel Value

FirstwholesalevalueEx-vesselvalue

Processingmargin

AK Economy looks like US Employment Mix by Industry (2000)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%M

ilitar

y

Extr

act

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Man

ufac

ture

Trad

e

Prof

essi

onal

Hos

pita

lity

Ed/H

ealth

/Gov

Alaska

Anc-MatSu

US

Alaska looks more like US over time

Employment Mix by Census Class of Worker

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

AK 1990 AK 2000 ANC-MatSu

US 2000

Self

Govt

Private Wage

per capita income is down from 1990 to 2000

Alaska -2% (total change)

Anchorage -1%

Mat Su Borough +2%

Rest of coastal AK -5%

Kodiak Island -15%

Ketchikan Borough -2%

Myth 5: Alaska’s coastline is protected from, or inaccessible to,

development• Much of the coastline is in protected areas,

and much is remote• But, distance has not hindered past

development when it paid– Nome was AK’s largest city at 1900 census

• And, access is improving and often cannot be controlled (e.g., boats in PWS)

• Use is becoming more “extensive” (mariculture, helicopter tourism)

Prince William Sound: Land of Many Managers

Part 3: A Challenge for Society

• Human uses growing, due to bigger footprint, not simply more people

• Conflicts over allocation and management priority are substantial and increasing

• The health of Alaska’s oceans and watersheds is important to the state’s residents

• So, . . .

Fact or Fiction?“The current

management system provides for a healthy ecosystem…

…and a healthy economy”

Ecosystem Questions

• Are we approaching any stress thresholds in the ecosystem?

• Can we really sustain a “maximum yield” given volatility and uncertainty?

• How do we assess cumulative impacts?• Can a fragmented management system

address the major threats faced by our oceans and watersheds?

Economy Questions

• Healthy economy for WHOM?

• What is the role of marine resource management in achieving socioeconomic goals such as stable rural communities?

• How can our oceans and watersheds best be managed for Alaska’s short-, medium-, and long-term economic health?

Limits and Allocations

• Do allocation battles pressure us to ignore the limits of the ecosystem? Or,

• Do we recognize that there is not or may not be “enough for everybody”?

• How can we meet our many demands on the finite resources of our oceans and watersheds?

~The End~

Download this show and the paper to follow from:

www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu

link to the “resources and environment” research area

Addendum: Employment FiguresDirect Total

Comm. Fishing 19,928 33,670

Tourism 16,871 25,512

Sport Fish/Hunt 8,800 12,200

Land Mgmt 4,534 10,475

Resident Recreation 7,200 9,800

Subsistence 1,980 1,980Adjust for doublecount (4,356) (9,450)

TOTAL 55,000 84,200