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Steinacher4, Nicolas Gruber2, and Yasuhiro Yamanaka4
(1National Institute for Environmental Studies , 2ETH Zurich , 3Hokkaido Univ., 4Univ. of Bern)
July 9, 2012 @ ICRS2012
Outline
1.Projected effects of global warming2.Projected effects of ocean acidification3.Projected combined effects of GW and OA
CO2 increase affects corals via…
1. Global warming
Rising water temperature
Sea level rise
Stratification of surface water
Current change
Increase of extreme climate -Physical destruction by storms -Increases in fresh water and terrestrial sediment and nutrient inputs by floods -Increase in airborne dust input by droughts
2. Ocean acidificationPhoto: M. Fujii
Using simplified indices and climate model outputs,
1. To project quantitatively effects of:• global warming• ocean acidificationon subtropical and temperate coral habitats
around Japan
2. To examine the combined effects of GW and OA on the coral habitats
Objective
Method
Climate model output of SST
SST as a simplified indexfor global warming
+Climate model output
of Ωarag
+
Ωarag as a simplified indexfor ocean acidification
Projected combined effects on corals
Projected effects of OA on corals
Projected effects of GW on corals
( Yamano et al., 2001)
SST and Ωarag as simplified indices
( Kleypas et al., 2006)
Northern limit- Subtropical coral habitats • SST=18℃ line during the coldest months (Yamano et al., 2001)
• Ωarag=3 line as the annual lowest value (Kleypas et al., 1999)
- Temperate coral habitats• SST=10℃ line during the coldest months (Yara et al., 2009)
• Ωarag=2.3 line as the annual lowest value (Yara et al., 2012)
Southern limit (caused by bleaching)•SST=30℃ line during the hottest months (Kayanne et al., 1999)
( Yamano et al., 2001)
Climate model outputs of SST and Ωarag
SRES scenario simulations
20C3M simulations
ModelHorizontal resolution
IPSL (France)
2°× 2° ・ cosφ
MPIM (Germany)
1.5°× 1.5°
NCAR-CSM1.4 (USA)
3.6°× (0.8 ~ 1.8°)
NCAR-CCSM3 (USA)
3.6°× (1 ~ 2°) The four models results were discussed in this
study
Results1. Effects of GW on coral habitats
2. Effects of OA on coral habitats
3. Combined effects of GW and OA on coral habitats
Yellow: SST=10℃ line in the coldest months (for temperate)Green: SST=18℃ line in the coldest months (for subtropical)Black: SST=30℃ line in the hottest months (for bleaching)
Northern and southern limits of subtropical and
temperate coral habitats regulated by GW
Yellow: Ωarag=2.3 line as the annual lowest value (for temperate)Green: Ωarag=3 line as the annual lowest value (for subtropical)
Northern limits of subtropical and temperate coral habitats regulated by
OA
Blue: SST=18℃ line in the coldest monthsRed: Ωarag=3 line as the annual lowest valueBlack: SST=30℃ line in the hottest months (for bleaching)
Combined effects of GW and OA on subtropical
coral habitats
Blue: SST=10℃ line in the coldest monthsRed: Ωarag=2.3 line as the annual lowest value
Combined effects of GW and OA on temperate
coral habitats
Ocean acidification will limit a poleward shift of coral habitats by global warming around Japan
Subtropical coral habitats The area of suitable habitats will be reduced by half by 2020s-2030s, and is projected to disappear by 2030s-2040s, by ocean acidification and bleaching
Temperate coral habitatsThe area is also becoming smaller, although at a less pronounced rate due to their higher tolerance for ocean acidification
Conclusions
12
Predicted SST and omega(in Tateyama (35°N, 140°E))