Oakland Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce Voter Survey Results October 15, 2014
Nov 28, 2014
Oakland Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce Voter Survey Results
October 15, 2014
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 2
Please note that due to rounding, some percentages may not add up to exactly 100%.
Telephone survey of Likely November 2014 Voters in the City of Oakland
Research conducted jointly by Oakland pollsters EMC Research and FM3
Interviews conducted October 5-9, 2014
500 total interviews city wide
Margin of Error: + 4.4 percentage points
Interviewing conducted by trained, professional interviewers
Landlines and mobile phones included
Where appropriate, results compared with previous survey conducted by EMC Research in September 2013
Methodology
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 3
Voters feel things are improving in Oakland: Most feel the local economy in Oakland is getting better; quality of life ratings have improved; a plurality feel the city is on the right track, and most feel safer or as safe as they did a year or two ago.
At the same time, ratings of city leadership remain very weak. Both Mayor Quan and the City Council have job ratings below 20%.
Schools, safety and jobs remain voters’ top concerns.
An overwhelming majority of voters feel the City should be making it easier to start and grow a business in Oakland, and voters place a higher priority on helping local businesses than attracting national chains.
Key Findings: Voter Attitudes
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 4
21% of voters are undecided on their first choice vote, and another 34% have not yet allocated (and may not allocate) all three of their choices.
Mayor Quan’s unfavorable to favorable numbers remain stubbornly high, with a weak job rating and low vote total despite the increasingly positive sense about the state and direction of the City.
Bryan Parker, the OakPAC-endorsed candidate, trails the field, but has the most opportunity to improve given current name ID, especially in the wake of the SF Chronicle endorsement.
Libby Schaaf’s position is improving, with a 20 point improvement in name ID since last year, and a significant bump in support during this poll after receiving the endorsement of Governor Brown last week.
Having run City-wide twice already, Kaplan remains in the lead but has less room to improve her name ID; and her unfavorable rating is higher than any candidate other than the Mayor.
Key Findings: 2014 Mayoral Election
Voter Attitudes on Jobs and Economic Development
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 6
Perceptions of Oakland’s Economy
61%
15%7%
17%
Better Same Don't know Worse
More than 6 in 10 voters say the city’s economy is better than a year or two ago.
Q11. Thinking about Oakland’s economy today, would you say Oakland’s economy is better than a year or two ago, or would you say it is worse?
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 7
Perceptions of Economy by Council DistrictVoters in Districts 6 and 7 are least likely to feel the economy is improving.
Q11. Thinking about Oakland’s economy today, would you say Oakland’s economy is better than a year or two ago, or would you say it is worse?
61%
66%
68%
60%
66%
59%
52%
46%
15%
13%
17%
13%
15%
26%
13%
12%
7%
4%
7%
10%
3%
13%
16%
17%
17%
7%
17%
16%
15%
22%
26%
Overall
D1 (n=105)
D2 (n=75)
D3 (n=80)
D4 (n=85)
D5 (n=45)
D6 (n=60)
D7 (n=50)
Better Same (Don't know) Worse
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 8
Oakland Voter Priorities
59%
73%
58%
46%
43%
46%
42%
42%
36%
39%
32%
32%
35%
23%
19%
12%
18%
18%
17%
13%
17%
14%
19%
13%
13%
14%
8%
9%
13%
6%
14%
23%
22%
21%
20%
22%
20%
17%
23%
17%
16%
23%
91%
91%
90%
87%
82%
80%
79%
78%
75%
69%
68%
63%
59%
55%
Public safety and crime prevention
Improving the quality of public schools
Creating good-paying local jobs
Keeping parks safe and clean
Repairing and maintaining roads
Building housing that lower & middle-income people can afford
Balancing the city budget
Making it easier to start, run, & grow a business in Oakland
Improving city government services
Cleaning up blight, illegal dumping, and graffiti
Improving public transportation
Providing recreational opportunities
Protecting residents from increased fees and taxes
Building more housing
7 Extremely Important 6 5 Total Important
Voters rate public safety, schools and jobs as the most important priorities for the city.
Using a scale from 1 to 7 where 1 is not at all important and 7 is extremely important, how important do you feel each of the following should be in Oakland right now? (Split Sample, N=250)
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 9
Improving Oakland’s business climateAn overwhelming majority of voters across all demographic groups believe the city should
be making it easier to start and grow a business in Oakland.
Q13c-Q13d. (SPLIT SAMPLE B ONLY) Next, do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with each of the following statements?
“The city should make it easier to start and grow a business in Oakland.”
88%
88%
90%
93%
83%
96%
83%
86%
95%
78%
7%
5%
6%
1%
13%
2%
9%
14%
5%
8%
5%
7%
4%
5%
4%
2%
8%
13%
Overall
Men 18-49
Women 18-49
Men 50+
Women 50+
Black/African-American
White
Hispanic
Asian
Other
Agree Don't know Disagree
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 10
Improving Oakland’s business climateAcross the city, voters feel strongly that the city should make it easier for businesses.
Q13c-Q13d. (SPLIT SAMPLE B ONLY) Next, do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with each of the following statements?
“The city should make it easier to start and grow a business in Oakland.”
88%
83%
92%
83%
88%
89%
94%
95%
7%
17%
5%
7%
3%
6%
2%
5%
3%
9%
8%
5%
5%
5%
Overall
D1 (n=105)
D2 (n=75)
D3 (n=80)
D4 (n=85)
D5 (n=45)
D6 (n=60)
D7 (n=50)
Agree Don't know Disagree
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 11
Attitudes toward economic development policiesMore than 3 in 4 voters support requiring affordable housing in new development; most voters also support tax incentives to attract businesses and allowing more chain stores.
Q14a-Q14c. Next, I’d like to get your opinion on some ideas about economic growth and job creation. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose…
53%
38%
37%
25%
32%
25%
5%
7%
5%
10%
15%
17%
7%
9%
15%
Requiring affordable housingbe part of any new housing
development project
Offering tax incentives toencourage companies to move
to Oakland
Allowing more national retailstores to locate in Oakland
Stronglyfavor
Somewhatfavor
(Don't know) Somewhatoppose
Stronglyoppose
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 12
Priorities for Business DevelopmentVoters want the city to focus on supporting local businesses over national chains; more voters want to see the city focus on neighborhood stores than downtown, but both are
priorities.
Q15a-Q15i. Now I’d like to ask about your opinion on priorities for business development in Oakland. For each of the following items, please tell me how high a priority that item should be for the City of Oakland. Use a scale of 1 to 7, where 1 means the lowest priority and 7 means the highest priority?
56%
50%
49%
44%
37%
41%
31%
16%
20%
21%
18%
19%
20%
15%
17%
8%
14%
17%
20%
18%
22%
18%
20%
19%
90%
88%
87%
81%
79%
74%
68%
43%
Supporting local Oakland-ownedstores
Supporting existing stores in localneighborhoods
Promoting art, music and culture
Promoting new downtown retail
Supporting food and restaurants
Attracting new tech jobs
Building high quality housing
Introducing big national chains
7 6 5 Total Priority
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 13
Support for neighborhood stores by Council DistrictVoters across Oakland want to see the City do more to support neighborhood stores.
Q15a-Q15i. Now I’d like to ask about your opinion on priorities for business development in Oakland. For each of the following items, please tell me how high a priority that item should be for the City of Oakland. Use a scale of 1 to 7, where 1 means the lowest priority and 7 means the highest priority?
50%
51%
44%
49%
54%
53%
43%
54%
21%
22%
27%
18%
22%
20%
27%
9%
17%
20%
19%
13%
16%
12%
15%
25%
88%
93%
90%
80%
92%
85%
85%
88%
Overall
City Council District 1 (n=105)
City Council District 2 (n=75)
City Council District 3 (n=80)
City Council District 4 (n=85)
City Council District 5 (n=45)
City Council District 6 (n=60)
City Council District 7 (n=50)
7 6 5 Total Priority“Supporting existing stores in local neighborhoods.”
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 14
New downtown retail by Council districtVoters in D4, D6 and D7 are most likely to want the city to promote downtown retail.
Q15a-Q15i. Now I’d like to ask about your opinion on priorities for business development in Oakland. For each of the following items, please tell me how high a priority that item should be for the City of Oakland. Use a scale of 1 to 7, where 1 means the lowest priority and 7 means the highest priority?
44%
40%
33%
46%
51%
42%
48%
55%
19%
26%
21%
15%
26%
11%
10%
11%
18%
17%
28%
15%
8%
20%
24%
15%
81%
83%
82%
76%
85%
73%
82%
81%
Overall
City Council District 1 (n=105)
City Council District 2 (n=75)
City Council District 3 (n=80)
City Council District 4 (n=85)
City Council District 5 (n=45)
City Council District 6 (n=60)
City Council District 7 (n=50)
7 6 5 Total Priority“Promoting new downtown retail.”
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 15
Support for new housing by Council districtVoters in D2 are least interested in new housing; voters in D7 are most likely to want the
City to focus on new housing.
Q15a-Q15i. Now I’d like to ask about your opinion on priorities for business development in Oakland. For each of the following items, please tell me how high a priority that item should be for the City of Oakland. Use a scale of 1 to 7, where 1 means the lowest priority and 7 means the highest priority?
31%
32%
18%
28%
36%
30%
30%
50%
17%
18%
23%
17%
17%
14%
11%
13%
20%
27%
23%
15%
22%
15%
19%
13%
68%
77%
64%
60%
75%
59%
60%
76%
Overall
City Council District 1 (n=105)
City Council District 2 (n=75)
City Council District 3 (n=80)
City Council District 4 (n=85)
City Council District 5 (n=45)
City Council District 6 (n=60)
City Council District 7 (n=50)
7 6 5 Total Priority“Building high quality housing.”
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 16
Oakland Culture & Dining ParticipationMost voters have dined downtown more than twice in the last year.
Q16a-Q16e. Next, in the last twelve months, about how many times do you think you or another household member has done each of the following activities.
31%
17%
23%
6%
7%
38%
40%
35%
25%
19%
20%
27%
17%
24%
28%
89%
84%
75%
55%
54%
Shopped or dined in downtownOakland
Shopped or dined in Jack LondonSquare
Shopped or dined in Uptown
Attended Oakland’s First Fridays Art Festival
Attended either an Oakland A’s or Oakland Raiders game
More than 12 times 3-12 times 1-2 times Total Attend
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 17
Oakland Culture & Dining Participation Over TimeVoters report more shopping and dining visits compared to last year.
Q16a-Q16e. Next, in the last twelve months, about how many times do you think you or another household member has done each of the following activities.
6%
3%
17%
13%
23%
21%
31%
29%
25%
18%
40%
38%
35%
32%
38%
40%
24%
26%
27%
26%
17%
16%
20%
15%
55%
47%
84%
77%
75%
68%
89%
84%
2014
2013
2014
2013
2014
2013
2014
2013
Firs
t Fr
iday
sJa
ck L
on
do
nU
pto
wn
Do
wn
tow
nMore than 12 times 3-12 times 1-2 times Total Attend
Attitudes Toward Oakland
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 19
Direction of Oakland
71%68% 70%
58%
69%
49% 48%
25%20%
23%23%26%
17%
27%33%
36%
45%
20% 19% 17%
26%
19%
33%38%
58%63%
54% 55% 54%59%
47%
50%46%
38%
Oct99
Feb00
Mar01
Jun01
Jul01
May02
Jun02
Mar05
Apr09
Nov09
Jan10
Apr12
Sep12
Aug13
Sep13
Mar14
Jul14
Oct14
Right direction Wrong track
Voters have grown more optimistic about Oakland over the past year.
Q2. Do you think things in the City of Oakland are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel that things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Source: Previous data from past EMC polling in Oakland
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 20
Oakland’s Quality of LifeRatings of Oakland “as a place to live” have also improved over the last year.
Q10. How would you rate Oakland as a place to live? Would you say it is an excellent, good, only fair, or poor place to live?
35%
21%
43%
49%
1%
2%
16%
20%
5%
8%
2014
2013
Excellent Good (Don't know) Only Fair Poor
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 21
Rating Quality of Life by Council DistrictVoters in D6 and D7 are least likely to say Oakland is an excellent place to live.
Q10. How would you rate Oakland as a place to live? Would you say it is an excellent, good, only fair, or poor place to live?
35%
44%
39%
35%
31%
44%
25%
17%
43%
39%
41%
44%
54%
24%
48%
45%
1%
1%
4%
2%
16%
11%
17%
16%
12%
22%
18%
29%
5%
6%
3%
3%
2%
9%
5%
7%
Overall
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
D6
D7
Excellent Good (Don't know) Only Fair Poor
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 22
Feelings of Safety 35% say they feel safer in Oakland than a year or two ago, and 35% feel safer in their
neighborhood.
Would you say you feel safer today in Oakland / your neighborhood than you did a year or two ago, or would you say you feel less safe?
35%
35%
37%
39%
2%
4%
25%
23%
In Oakland
In yourneighborhood
Safer Same (Don't know) Less Safe
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 23
Trend: Perceptions of Safety in Oakland
24%20%
13% 12% 13%
35%35% 34%
51%47%
55%
25%
Nov-09 Jan-10 Apr-12 Sep-12 13-Sep Oct-14
Safer Less Safe
Perceptions of safety have improved sharply.
Next, would you say you feel safer today in Oakland than you did a year or two ago, or would you say you feel less safe? (Split Sample, N=250)
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 24
Feelings of Neighborhood Safety by Council DistrictVoters in D5 and D7 are most likely to say their neighborhoods have become less safe.
(Split Sample, N=250) Next, would you say you feel safer today in your neighborhood than you did a year or two ago, or would you say you feel less safe?
35%
38%
30%
33%
37%
39%
33%
36%
39%
36%
51%
36%
41%
32%
48%
20%
4%
3%
3%
6%
16%
23%
24%
16%
25%
22%
29%
19%
28%
Overall
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
D6
D7
Safer Same (Don't know) Less Safe
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 25
Job Ratings: Mayor and City CouncilDespite optimism about the city’s direction, job ratings of the Mayor and City Council
remain weak.
Q5a-Q5b. Next, using a scale of excellent, good, only fair, or poor... How would you rate the overall job Oakland Mayor Jean Quan is doing? How would you rate the overall job the Oakland City Council is doing?
4%
1%
15%
16%
3%
9%
42%
53%
35%
21%
Oakland Mayor JeanQuan
Oakland City Council
Excellent Good (Don't know) Only Fair Poor
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 26
Job Ratings: Mayor and City Council Over TimeJob ratings for Mayor and Council are essentially unchanged since 2013.
Q5a-Q5b. Next, using a scale of excellent, good, only fair, or poor... How would you rate the overall job Oakland Mayor Jean Quan is doing? How would you rate the overall job the Oakland City Council is doing?
19%
20%
17%
14%
3%
4%
9%
11%
77%
77%
74%
75%
2014
2013
2014
2013
Oak
lan
d M
ayo
r Je
anQ
uan
Oak
lan
d C
ity
Co
un
cil
Excellent/Good (Don't know) Only Fair/Poor
2014 Mayoral Election: Background
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 28
Quan Favorable Rating Trend
35%
51%
36%
24% 34%
12%17%
53%
62%57%
Nov-09 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-13 Oct-14
Favorable Unfavorable
Mayor Quan’s favorable rating has improved since last year but a solid majority continue to hold negative opinions of her.
Please tell me if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of… Mayor Jean Quan
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 29
Incumbent Vital Signs: Jean QuanOn all key measures, Quan remains weak for an incumbent.
Would you say you feel safer today in Oakland / your neighborhood than you did a year or two ago, or would you say you feel less safe?
34%19% 25% 28%
8%
3%
8%
21%
57%
77%67%
51%
Quan Favorable Quan Job Rating Quan Re-elect Initial Vote
FavorsChallengers
Neutral
Favors Quan
(Vote Quanwith any choice)
(Undecided 1st Choice)
(Vote for Challengers
only)
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 30
Mayoral Candidates – Name IDKaplan and Quan are best known by a wide margin.
Q4a-Q4i. Now I’m going to read you a list of people and organizations. For each one, please tell me if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of that person or organization. If you have never heard of one, please say so.
91%
72%
52%
49%
42%
36%
32%
6%
13%
18%
18%
18%
20%
20%
98%
86%
69%
68%
61%
57%
52%
Mayor Jean Quan
City Council Member Rebecca Kaplan
City Council Member Libby Schaaf
Civil Rights Attorney Dan Siegel
Government Law Professor JoeTuman
City Auditor Courtney Ruby
Businessperson and UniversityTrustee Bryan Parker
Hard Name ID (Fav + Unfav) Soft Name ID (Can't rate) Total Name ID
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 31
Mayoral Candidates - FavorablesKaplan has significant unfavorable rating; Schaaf has the strongest favorable to
unfavorable ratio.
Q4a-Q4i. Now I’m going to read you a list of people and organizations. For each one, please tell me if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of that person or organization. If you have never heard of one, please say so.
50%
44%
35%
34%
33%
27%
21%
28%
48%
51%
8%
58%
63%
68%
22%
8%
14%
57%
9%
9%
11%
2.3
5.5
2.5
0.6
3.7
3.0
1.9
City Council Member Rebecca Kaplan
City Council Member Libby Schaaf
Civil Rights Attorney Dan Siegel
Mayor Jean Quan
Government Law Professor Joe Tuman
City Auditor Courtney Ruby
Businessperson and University TrusteeBryan Parker
Favorable Can't Rate/Never Heard
Unfavorable Fav/UnfavRatio
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 32
Kaplan Favorable Rating Trend
32%
44%
54%50%
8%13% 13%
22%
Nov-09 Sep-10 Sep-12 Oct-14
Favorable Unfavorable
Kaplan’s unfavorable has risen as she has become better known.
Please tell me if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of… City Council Member Rebecca Kaplan
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 33
Schaaf Favorable Rating Trend
23% 26%
44%
5% 7% 8%
Apr-12 Sep-13 Oct-14
Favorable Unfavorable
Schaaf name ID and favorables have spiked since September 2013.
Please tell me if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of… City Council Member Libby Schaaf
2014 Mayoral Election: Vote
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 35
Ranked Choice Voting21% of voters are completely undecided in the mayoral election, and 55% in total have
not yet allocated all 3 of their votes.
38% of the total possible vote in the mayoral election remains up for grabs.
21%
15%
19%
45%
0 candidates
1 candidate
2 candidates
3 candidates
Mean: 1.88 choices per
voter
Number of candidates chosen in Ranked Choice Vote
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 36
Mayoral Ranked Choice VoteKaplan leads in the first choice vote and total vote. Schaaf narrowly trails Quan in first
choice vote, but leads her in total vote.
21%
14%
17%
8%
9%
4%
4%
15%
13%
7%
8%
6%
5%
4%
7%
6%
4%
7%
5%
5%
5%
43%
33%
28%
23%
20%
14%
13%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
Rebecca Kaplan
Libby Schaaf
Jean Quan
Joe Tuman
Dan Siegel
Courtney Ruby
Bryan Parker
Charles Williams
Eric Wilson
Jason Anderson
Saied Karamooz
Peter Liu
Pat McCullough
Ken Houston
Nancy Sidebotham
FirstChoice
SecondChoice
ThirdChoice
Total Vote
Mayoral vote asked in actual ballot order and using full ballot titles for each candidate.
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 37
Mayoral Vote – RCV ResultsKaplan beats Schaaf in the ranked choice vote results.
Mayoral vote ranked choice vote distribution
Candidate Initial Top 7 Top 6 Top 5 Top 4 Top 3 Final
Kaplan 20.9 27.9 28.7 30.5 33.0 40.7 58.8
Schaaf 14.3 18.4 19.6 20.9 27.0 30.9 41.3
Quan 17.1 22.0 23.0 23.4 24.9 28.4
Siegel 9.0 11.8 12.4 13.6 15.1
Tuman 7.6 10.0 10.7 11.6
Parker 4.0 5.1 5.6
Ruby 3.7 4.8
Undecided/Other 23.4
Sample Size remainingafter eliminated votes 500 389 384 378 362 343 300
Margin of error +4.4% +5.0% +5.0% +5.0% +5.1% +5.3% +5.7%
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 38
Mayoral Vote Shift During PollSchaaf moves into second place on the news of her endorsement from Governor Brown.
20%
9%
18%
10%
9%
3%
4%
39%
26%
29%
23%
20%
12%
16%
Kaplan
Schaaf
Quan
Tuman
Siegel
Ruby
Parker
First Choice Total Vote
Mayoral vote asked in actual ballot order and using full ballot titles for each candidate.October 5-6 (n=186)October 7-9 (n=314)
22%
17%
17%
6%
9%
4%
4%
45%
37%
27%
23%
19%
14%
11%
Kaplan
Schaaf
Quan
Tuman
Siegel
Ruby
Parker
First Choice Total Vote
October 5-6 Results October 7-9 Results
RCV result: Kaplan 57% Quan 43%
RCV result: Kaplan 57% Schaaf 43%
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 39
Mayoral IRV Simulation: Top 7
If the election were held today, who would be you first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…
5% 5%10% 12%
22%18%
28%
Ruby Parker Tuman Siegel Quan Schaaf Kaplan
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 40
Mayoral IRV Simulation: Top 6
If the election were held today, who would be you first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…
5% 5%10% 12%
22% 18%28%
1%1% 1%
1%1%
1%
6%11% 12%
23%20%
29%
Ruby Parker Tuman Siegel Quan Schaaf Kaplan
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 41
Mayoral IRV Simulation: Top 5
If the election were held today, who would be you first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…
6%11% 12%
23% 20%29%
1% 1%
0%1%
2%
12% 14%
23% 21%
31%
Ruby Parker Tuman Siegel Quan Schaaf Kaplan
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 42
Mayoral IRV Simulation: Top 4
If the election were held today, who would be you first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…
12% 14%23% 21%
31%2%
2% 6%
3%
15%
25% 27%33%
Ruby Parker Tuman Siegel Quan Schaaf Kaplan
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 43
Mayoral IRV Simulation: Top 3
If the election were held today, who would be you first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…
15%25% 27%
33%
4% 4%
8%28% 31%
41%
Ruby Parker Tuman Siegel Quan Schaaf Kaplan
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 44
Mayoral IRV Simulation: Final
If the election were held today, who would be you first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…
28% 31%41%
10%
18%41%
59%
Ruby Parker Tuman Siegel Quan Schaaf Kaplan
Oakland Ballot Measures
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 46
Attitudes Toward Property TaxesMost voters think property taxes are too high; voters in D6 and D7 are most likely to agree.
Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?
Property taxes in Oakland are too high.
53%
45%
48%
40%
61%
57%
63%
70%
17%
22%
17%
29%
7%
14%
9%
16%
30%
33%
35%
31%
32%
28%
28%
14%
Overall
D1 (n=105)
D2 (n=75)
D3 (n=80)
D4 (n=85)
D5 (n=45)
D6 (n=60)
D7 (n=50)
Agree (Don't know) Disagree
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 47
Measure Z Vote
Yes, approve54%
No, reject27% Undecided
19%
Yes, approve No, reject Undecided
Support for Measure Z falls short of 2/3.(On the ballot, the text of Measure Z begins with the wording “without increasing current tax rates…” Recent public
polling which tested the measure’s full ballot language showed support at 75%.)
Q3a. Next, there are several measures on the ballot in the City of Oakland this November. If the election were held today, would you vote “yes” to approve or “no” to reject each of the following measures…
Would you vote yes to approve or no to reject:Measure Z, which would renew an annual parcel tax and parking tax to fund police staffing and violence prevention and intervention programs.
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 48
Measure N Vote
Yes, approve59%
No, reject23%
Undecided18%
Yes, approve No, reject Undecided
Support for measure N is also less than the 2/3 required.
Q3b. Next, there are several measures on the ballot in the City of Oakland this November. If the election were held today, would you vote “yes” to approve or “no” to reject each of the following measures…Measure N, which would establish an annual parcel tax of $120 dedicated to school programs that prepare students for colleges and real-world jobs, and reduce dropout rates.
Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 49
Likely Voter Demographics
46% Men54% Women
Length of Time in Oakland
Less than 2 years (4%)
2-5 years (13%)
6-10 years (14%)
11-20 years (18%)
More than 20 years
(51%)
Work in Oakland – 29%Employed elsewhere – 24%
Unemployed – 8%Retired – 26%Other – 12%
68% Democrats6% Republicans
26x% NPP/Others
47% are 18-49 years old28% are 50-64
25% are over 65
White – 49%African-American – 28%
Latino – 8%Chinese – 4%
Other Asian/Pacific Islander – 3%Other – 5%
Contacts
Alex [email protected]
510.550.8920
David [email protected]
510.451.9521
Contactss
Barbara [email protected]
510. 874.4800