NEW YORK CITY MULTI-FAMILY SALES MARKET OVERVIEW ROBERT A. KNAKAL
NYC Multifamily Sales Market Overview
May 19, 2015
Robert Knakal presents the NYC Multifamily Sales Market Overview as a keynote address during the Massey Knakal Multifamily Summit (GreenPearl Events).
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NEW YORK CITY MULTI-FAMILYSALES MARKET OVERVIEWROBERT A. KNAKAL
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
NYC Investment Property Sales Volume (1984-2010)
VOLUME OF SALES
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
NYC Investment Property Sales Volume (1984-2010)
VOLUME OF SALES
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
NYC Investment Property Sales Volume (1984-2010)
VOLUME OF SALES
TURNOVER RATES(ANNUALIZED)
BUILDING SALES VOLUME(NUMBER OF BUILDINGS SOLD)
2005 – 1H 2010, MANHATTAN
BUILDING SALES VOLUME(NUMBER OF BUILDINGS SOLD)
2005 – 1H 2010, CITYWIDE
CITYWIDE DOLLAR VOLUME(AGGREGATE SALES PRICE)
2005 – 1H 2010, ALL SALES (IN BILLIONS)
MANHATTAN DOLLAR VOLUME(AGGREGATE SALES PRICE)
2005 – 1H 2010, ALL SALES (IN BILLIONS)
AVERAGE PPSFMANHATTAN – FROM PEAK TO 2009
-32%
AVERAGE PPSF
MANHATTAN
PP
SF
AVERAGE CAP RATES
MANHATTAN
CA
P R
AT
E
CAP RATES
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008)
MANHATTAN APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2010)
WALK-UP CAP RATESCOMPARED TO GRM
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008)
MANHATTAN WALK-UP APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2010)
ELEVATOR CAP RATESCOMPARED TO GRM
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008)
MANHATTAN ELEVATOR APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2010)
CAP RATESCOMPARED TO MORTGAGE RATES
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008), Federal Reserve Bank
MANHATTAN APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2010)
LEVERAGE(CAP RATES MINUS MORTGAGE RATES)
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
MANHATTAN APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2010)
CAP RATESCOMPARED TO 10-YEAR T-BILL
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008), US Treasury
MANHATTAN APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2010)
RISK PREMIUM(CAP RATES MINUS 10-YEAR T-BILL)
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
MANHATTAN APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2010)
APARTMENT BUILDINGSWALK-UP and ELEVATOR SALES
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
*annualized
# Buildings # Units $ Volume2009 435 9,888 1,264,841,119$ 1H10 304 8,701 1,589,335,058$
CHANGE* +40% +76% +151%
APARTMENT BUILDINGSWALK-UP SALES
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
2009
1H 2010
# Buildings # Units $ VolumeManhattan 77 1,064 236,428,208$
Northern Manhattan 38 918 83,160,552$ Bronx 53 1,422 100,076,847$
Brooklyn 123 1,205 151,710,737$ Queens 57 413 66,455,375$
TOTAL MARKET 348 5,022 637,831,719$
# Buildings # Units $ VolumeManhattan 34 403 147,660,014$
Northern Manhattan 38 857 77,697,684$ Bronx 37 905 63,282,937$
Brooklyn 85 688 190,349,073$ Queens 45 462 64,841,671$
TOTAL MARKET 239 3,315 543,831,379$
CHANGE* +37% +32% +71%
*annualized
APARTMENT BUILDINGSELEVATOR SALES
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
2009
1H 2010
*annualized
# Buildings # Units $ VolumeManhattan 11 643 224,675,000$
Northern Manhattan 22 931 116,208,000$ Bronx 31 1,881 139,407,500$
Brooklyn 18 905 91,926,400$ Queens 5 506 54,792,500$
TOTAL MARKET 87 4,866 627,009,400$
# Buildings # Units $ VolumeManhattan 12 1,517 635,454,000$
Northern Manhattan 18 1,934 222,636,067$ Bronx 17 1,185 85,868,612$
Brooklyn 13 556 74,935,000$ Queens 5 194 26,610,000$
TOTAL MARKET 65 5,386 1,045,503,679$
CHANGE* +49% +121% +233%
MULTIFAMILY ANALYSISCAP RATES
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
WALK-UP
ELEVATOR
2007 2009 2010Change from
2009Change from
2007
Manhattan 3.18% 4.71% 5.08% +37 +190
Northern Manhattan
5.11% 5.53% 6.01% +48 +90
Bronx 5.85% 7.84% 7.97% +13 +212
Brooklyn 5.27% 6.14% 6.26% +12 +99
Queens 5.32% 6.04% 6.56% +52 +124
2007 2009 2010Change from
2009Change from
2007
Manhattan 4.40% 5.46% 6.08% +62 +168
Northern Manhattan
5.43% 7.02% 7.26% +24 +183
Bronx 7.45% 7.51% 7.30% -21 -15
Brooklyn 5.91% 7.60% 7.09% -51 +118
Queens 6.45% 6.72% 7.20% +48 +75
MULTIFAMILY ANALYSISGRM
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
WALK-UP
ELEVATOR
2007 2009 2010Change from
2009Change from
2007
Manhattan 15.35 11.66 11.23 -0.43 -4.12
Northern Manhattan
11.45 8.25 7.70 -0.55 -3.75
Bronx 7.81 7.16 7.45 +0.29 -0.36
Brooklyn 10.12 9.42 9.92 +0.50 -0.20
Queens 11.21 9.93 9.62 -0.31 -1.59
2007 2009 2010Change from
2009Change from
2007
Manhattan 16.75 13.30 11.67 -1.63 -5.08
Northern Manhattan
12.54 8.47 8.90 +0.43 -3.64
Bronx 8.45 6.94 6.88 -0.06 -1.57
Brooklyn 10.96 8.78 8.64 -0.14 -2.32
Queens 12.13 9.14 9.56 +0.42 -2.57
MULTIFAMILY ANALYSISPRICE PER SQUARE FOOT
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
WALK-UP
ELEVATOR
2007 2009 2010Change from
2009Change from
2007
Manhattan $522 $434 $406 -6% -22%
Northern Manhattan
$170 $124 $109 -12% -36%
Bronx $85 $69 $59 -14% -31%
Brooklyn $110 $126 $196 +56% +78%
Queens $117 $133 $189 +42% +62%
2007 2009 2010Change from
2009Change from
2007
Manhattan $556 $505 $634 +26% +14%
Northern Manhattan
$307 $161 $128 -20% -58%
Bronx $108 $88 $96 +9% -11%
Brooklyn $188 $160 $181 +13% -4%
Queens $220 $190 $185 -3% -16%
MULTIFAMILY ANALYSISPRICE PER UNIT
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
WALK-UP
ELEVATOR
2009 2010Change from
2009
Manhattan $347,630 $387,900 +12%
Northern Manhattan
$115,780 $88,240 -24%
Bronx $73,522 $79,379 +8%
Brooklyn $131,574 $136,431 +4%
Queens $143,450 $137,552 -4%
2009 2010Change from
2009
Manhattan $355,181 $319,823 -10%
Northern Manhattan
$92,733 $114,782 +24%
Bronx $70,643 $66,262 -6%
Brooklyn $129,672 $145,908 +13%
Queens $108,383 $132,826 +23%
1. VOLUME – Continued Increases
3. FINANCING – Strong
MULTI-FAMILY MARKETCONCLUSIONS:
2. PRICES – Uncertain
THINGS TO KEEP AN EYE ON:
1. Unemployment
3. Housing Market
4. Inflation
5. Fed Monetary Policy
6. Deleveraging
2010 and BEYOND
2. Supply vs. Demand
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