“NYC Climate Projections & New Atmospheric Observational Capacity” Stuart R. Gaffin, Cynthia Rosenzweig Center for Climate Systems Research Columbia University & NASA Goddard Inst. For Space Studies 2880 Broadway New York, NY 10025 New York Bight Sub-Regional Meeting May 13, 2008
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“NYC Climate Projections & New Atmospheric Observational Capacity” Stuart R. Gaffin, Cynthia Rosenzweig Center for Climate Systems Research Columbia University.
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“NYC Climate Projections & New Atmospheric Observational
Capacity”
Stuart R. Gaffin, Cynthia Rosenzweig
Center for Climate Systems ResearchColumbia University &
NASA Goddard Inst. For Space Studies2880 Broadway
New York, NY 10025
New York Bight Sub-Regional Meeting
May 13, 2008
Skating in Central Park 1890
Typical End-Winter View of Central Park Lake
Dakota Building
1900 2000 2080
UHIUHI
UHI
GW
GW
NYC’s Heat BurdenPast, Present and Projected:
Columbia University & GISS
~7oC / 13oF
2oC
7 days above 90oF 14 days above 90oF
3-4 days above 95oF
Most of Summer above 90oF
17-50 days above 95oF
GW = Global WarmingUHI = urban heat island
“Very Wet” Days (~2 inches)
Very wet days occur ~25% more often in the 2050s, and 50% more often in the 2080s
Source: CCSR
GCM Projected Change in Sea Level Rise
Draft April 10, 2008 Columbia Center for Climate Systems Research
Note: There are 7 GCM's and 3 emission scenarios used. Base = 2000 to 2004, 2020s = 2020-2029, etc…
Min-Max25%-75%Median value0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2020s 2050s 2080s
Sea Level Rise (cm)
Projected Change In NYC Area Sea Level
(Extremely Conservative on Greenland & Antarctica)
Former “Urban Dispersion Program” “Met Net”
New Columbia University “Green Met Net” – 4 nodes as May 2008
LI City
Flushing
MorningsideHeights
Bronx
Benefits to the people of NYC from MetNet Data
• Emergency-response planning: for accidental or terrorist releases
• Weather forecasts of precipitation, sea breeze movement, thunderstorm activity, etc.
• Ozone and PM/aerosol forecasts & prevention• Human-health impacts from heat, cold, & poor air quality• Energy planning based on local urban heat island
variations & of potential new sources (e.g., wind, solar)
• Measurements in real-time• Permanent and expandable facility • Secure two-way data-flow communications• Quality-assured data• Permanent data-archive• Secure-access to archive• Transparent graphical user-interface developed
with end-user input• Dynamic-forecasts for emergency-response• A decision support facility
Requirements of a NYC MetNet
Potential Stakeholders
• City of New York: OEM (Fire, Police), DEP, Dept. of Health, et al.