NWA Poster Session Handout 10-08

Josh Nathan, MA Stacy Barnes Communication Professor & Intern, Media Strategist Office of Emergency Management Denver, CO Compton, CA

Costly Forecasting from TV Meteorologists? A Case of Strong Reliance and Weak Alliance in Denver

Presented at the National Weather Association Annual Conference Louisville, Kentucky

October, 2008

Broadcaster’s Seal of Approval Author: Can TV News Change History?

Abstract

In 2006, those in the Denver metro area experienced the seventh strongest winter storm in the city’s history (National Weather Service, 2006). Applying Maurice Halbwachs’ theory of collective memory, this study suggests the two storms that paralyzed Colorado’s Front Range during the week surrounding Christmas created a strong collective memory that briefly led to an overreliance on broadcasters’ forecasts. In April of the following year, another significant snowstorm was predicted. When it ceased to materialize, emergency personnel in the city and at the airport had already prepared. Yet, the decisions were based, in part, on the memories, miscalculations, and mistakes made during the 2006 storms and too much stock was placed in the hands of weather forecasts. Whether anyone could have avoided the pitfalls made, or will do so in the future, depends on both the degree to which they rely on, as well as how they interpret, the forecasts provided. Better choices also hinge on whether collaboration increases among forecasters and local response agencies—a synergy that, as of yet, remains largely untapped.

Perfect Storms: Fast Facts

Denver Post Photo/Cyrus McCrimmon

“Bad weather is to the TV News business what Christmas is to the elves who live at the North Pole.” Dan Williamson (2007), Columbus’s News & Entertainment Weekly

December 2006 Denver Blizzards •  December 20-21 & December 28-29, 2006 •  27.7” Snow Total in Denver •  Third Snowiest December in Denver History •  Nearly 5,000 passengers stranded at DIA •  About 3,000 flights cancelled before Christmas •  Hundreds of motorists stranded along I-70 and I-25 •  Scores of communities isolated and without power

Cows had to be fed by helicopters. Dozens of major highways closed including I-25 from Denver south to New Mexico and north to Wyoming. Winter Storm Warnings and Blizzard Warnings in effect for days at a time. Governor Bill Owens declares a disaster emergency, activating the Colorado National Guard.

Broadcast News Viewers

SOURCE: Drobot (2007)

The main information sources for obtaining weather forecast information leading up to and during the December 20-21, 2006, winter storm. Respondents could only select one information

source.

· Nearly 65 percent turn to local TV Meteorologists as main information source leading up to the storms:

Lower Middle: 9News’

Kathy Sabine Below:

7News’ Mike Nelson

Whether Weather’s Valuable…

Denver TV Chief Meteorologists

Top Left:

FOX 31’s Chris Dunn

Middle Left: CBS4’s

Ed Greene Lower Left: CW2’s Dave Fraser

This aggregation takes the median value as representative of household values for

current forecast services.

The annual value per household for current weather forecasting services is estimated to be

$109.00

SOURCE: Stratus Consulting (2002)

•  Response highlights important role of

local TV Meteorologists.

•  On average, people are most interested in when and where precipitation will occur.

Why TV? An Issue of Trust •  In one survey, one in three people reported staying home

during the storms based solely on TV Meteorologists’ weather forecasts.

“I THINK THE MESSAGE HERE IS THAT LOCAL TV IS THE PLACE TO GO DURING

SEVERE WEATHER. IT’S THE FRONT LINES.” Sheldon Drobot,

Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, University of Colorado at Boulder

2008

–  Daily decisions about whether to leave home

change based solely on predictions. –  Those in TV focus on the certainty rather

than the uncertainty in the forecast, which often falsely boosts viewer confidence.

–  People are largely unable to differentiate

where the forecast information originates and typically assume it’s with TV Meteorologists.

–  Confidence in any forecast more than two

days out drops off significantly.

All too Strange a Scene

“The sidewalks were covered with six-foot piles of snow, so people were going down the middle of busy streets. It’s very dangerous. One car slips and that would be it.” (Terry Ross, Edgewater Police Officer)

“[With all of the cancelled flights,] this isn’t an act of God. It was mismanagement by United [Airlines].” (Robert Helmer, Denver Resident who sat in a plane stuck in snow for hours at DIA )

“A plow makes a pass when you’re getting snowfalls at that rate and an hour later you can’t tell a plow’s been there. I know that there is great frustration with people who feel stranded in their homes because the neighborhood streets have a lot of snow on them.” (Bill Vidal, Denver Public Works)

The Cost of a Memory

•  In the 1920s, French social psychologist Maurice Halbwachs was the first to study what he later dubbed “Collective Memory.” –  He argued individual memories could

only exist if a person could contextualize them; to do so, one needed to tap into the broader societal memory and, ever since, the two became inextricably-bound, varying by culture.

Saul Friedländer (1979)

•  Most agree television serves as a communal portal through which nearly identical memories are made for the majority.

“When crises occur, one searches the depths of one’s memory to discover some vestige of the past, not the past of the individual, faltering and ephemeral, but rather that of the community, which, though left behind, nonetheless represents that which is permanent and lasting.”

–  After emerging from two December

blizzards, the collective memory from the storms was strong enough and similar enough for most in Denver to take an abnormal amount of additional precautions in a predicted, but never materialized, blizzard in April, 2007.

“[An institutionalized cultural memory] draws on itself to explain, distinguish, reinterpret, criticize, censure, control, surpass, and receive. … Upon such collective knowledge, for the most part of the past, each group bases its awareness of unity and particularity.”

Jan Assmann (1992)

April (Snow) Showers Bring May Flowers?

The NWS predicts a large snow storm starting April 12, 2007, calling for 6”-12” in the Denver Metro Area.

With Strong Reliance comes Misdirected Anger:

–  TV Meteorologists tend to favor forecasting for 10”-12”.

–  Only a trace of snow falls at DIA, with similar amounts in the metro area.

•  Given an even stronger reliance on TV meteorologists

than typical due to the December blizzards, people now change plans for a storm that never occurs.

•  In one of many preemptive moves by companies & agencies, airlines cancel about 100 flights in and out of DIA.

•  Malcontent grows with changes in personal decisions, operations at DIA, and communication regarding incorrect forecast.

“Weather forecasts are inherently uncertain. … Weather forecasts communicated to the public today contain, at best, limited information about uncertainty.”

Rebecca Morss, Julie Demuth, & Jeffrey Lazo 2008

Perhaps if the showers that are predicted arrive!

“If you tell people what to expect, they’re mad at you for telling them and if you don’t tell them what to expect, they’re mad at you for not telling them. We can’t win in this business.” KUSA 9News Chief Meteorologist Kathy

Sabine to Denver Westword 2007

Strong Reliance on TV Weather Necessitates Change •  Nearly 60 percent of those in a nationwide survey

would prefer TV Meteorologists to discuss probabilities of precipitation, including, to some extent, what mesoscale conditions may change the immediate forecast.

•  More communication is needed among disparate agencies so waste of financial resources is minimized in preparing for storms that don’t come; this includes the use of better forecasting technology.

“As of February 2008, the WAS*IS mission has empowered 145

practitioners, researchers, and stakeholders around the world to

build new relationships and to use new tools and concepts for more

effective socio-economic applications and evaluations of weather information and products.”

–  Since 2007, some NWS offices have employed a successful “chat” service to better communicate with broadcasters; it seems to be successful with theoretical meteorological discussions that may create a change in the NWS forecasts or result in a justification in the summary disseminated.

–  The NWS for the Denver area did not, and does not, engage in chat sessions; its Operational Meteorologist cites problems with “band width, security, standardization, and staff resources,” affecting any potential implementation across the country.

weather & society * integrated studies

WAS*IS 2008

People Love to Hate

“People are learning by experience. People may have a plan in place, or no plan, and some major event

comes along and they change it and then another event comes along and they change it. … How the

storm evolves and how people make decisions is not simplified.”

Julie Demuth, Personal Communication

Associate Scientist National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Institute for the Study of Society and Environment (ISSE) Research Applications Laboratory (RAL)

Emotion plays a large role when it comes to uncertainty in a forecast

–  Studies show most thought TV Meteorologists underestimated the amount of snow in the December blizzards, which was not correct & merely a perception.

–  Still, necessary for NOAA, NASA, NSF, & DOD to strengthen efforts for better observation and modeling systems.

A sidewalk in Denver December, 2006

•  The collective memory of the December blizzards only adds to the anger some felt about wasted resources in preparation for the April storm that never came.

–  Storm was forecasted during normal work hours –  No excess cost accrued by putting snow removal crews on standby

An All Out Emergency: Preparing for a Non-Event

A United Airlines jet is deiced at DIA December 29, 2006.

AP Photo/Will Powers

Only a trace of snow at DIA was actually recorded for this storm

•  City of Denver puts its Public Works department on standby.

•  DIA declares snow emergency based on NWS report and begins the following preparations:

•  Many airlines cancelled flights in anticipation of the storm:

April 12-13, 2007: NWS calling for 6”-12” snow / Most in Denver TV News calling for 10”-12”

–  Briefing to airlines about emergency –  Staffed two trucks on Peña Boulevard –  Maintenance crews scheduled for airfield:

22 broom trucks, 12 pushers, 2, blowers, 4 sanders, 4 chemical trucks

–  United Airlines: 40 flights –  Frontier Airlines: 1 flight –  Other Airlines: 24 flights

What Experience and the 2006 Blizzards taught Denver Agencies

•  City & County of Denver changed its Standard Operating Procedures

(SOP) to address residential streets in a more timely fashion.

•  DIA made three changes for the 2007-2008 snow season:.

–  Residents complained about not having neighborhood streets cleaned during the 2006 storms.

–  Denver Public Works created the Residential Snow Plow Program. –  Increased the number of snow removal equipment to 100 plows. –  Pickup trucks reserved for residential areas; snowplows address main thoroughfares,

highways, other critical areas.

–  Added a third level of snow alert. –  Contracted out ramp snow removal & snow melter operations.

City of Denver Snowplow

AP Photo/Andrew Otto

•  Traditionally, information is received by the particular city’s Office of Emergency Management (OEM) from the NWS. •  OEM then disseminates the information internally among various city agencies to ensure everyone has a full understanding of the prediction. •  Then agencies work together to determine if further action must be taken, such as a local snow emergency that activates an Emergency Operations Plan (EOP). •  If further action is taken, the OEM will work with the city Public Information Officers (PIOs) to disseminate the information to local news outlets and general public via press releases. •  The emergency hierarchy varies from city to city and state to state, based on local laws and Standard Operating Procedures.

Information Distribution Hierarchy How forecast information is disseminated and translated into action

Public Works

NWS

Mayor’s Office Public

Information Officers

News Media

General Public

City OEM

Fire and Police

Private Forecasting

Firm

–  This gives the OEM a more complete weather forecast. –  Allows the OEM and first responders to make better decisions regarding response. –  Various cities in Colorado have followed suit. –  New forecast information is not shared, or discussed, with NWS.

Weak Alliance: The Need to Strengthen Some Bonds

NWS provides information to Emergency Managers, but there is still no mechanism used for a discussion from Emergency Managers to the NWS.

•  City of Denver employs a private meteorological firm that is an expert on

Denver weather patterns to give independent forecasts in addition to the NWS reports.

New Prospects in Denver?

•  Multi-agency effort to develop an Emergency Manager Communications Network. –  Scheduled to start this winter. –  Involves conference calls from NWS to

emergency management community. –  Uses Emergency Managers Weather

Information Network (EMWIN). Will provide information on the impact of a severe

weather event, including the level of uncertainty and variability due to Colorado’s terrain.

–  TV is still seen as both the best, and most turned to, medium to convey information to the public.

–  Allows for clearer flow of information to public.

•  During severe weather, general public relies solely on local broadcast

meteorologists to receive information and warnings.

•  Information flows from NWS to OEM, but OEM feedback is still virtually non-existent, which must change.

Conclusion

“…False alarms will reduce public confidence in the warning process.”

David Alexander, 2002 •  Employ better technology for more accurate predictions, enabling NWS, OEM, DIA personnel, and TV Meteorologists to better prepare and inform public, particularly because there is a high level of trust and recognition placed on the broadcasters.

•  Expanding dialogue between NWS, OEM, and TV Meteorologists using proposed EMWIN platform could provide for more efficient, less costly responses in severe weather situations and a synergy that is currently MIA.

The Aftermath: Aerial photo of DIA on the morning of December 22, 2006

Photo/Ashley Niblock

Josh Nathan Josh Nathan teaches in the Communication Arts & Sciences department at the

Metropolitan State University of Denver. He also teaches at The Art Institute of

Colorado and is an NWA-certified freelance broadcast meteorologist.

Nathan recently published his first book Can TV News Change History? which was released in the U.S., Germany, and the U.K. Emerging from a collective memory perspective, his main focus has been the affect of mass media on populations. He wrote a foundational citation in Communication on the topic and presented a Poster Session at the 2006 NWA Annual Meeting regarding how broadcast news shapes memories of severe weather, focusing on Hurricane Katrina. In addition, he has published several scholarly papers with research in Organizational Change & Development as well as Emergency Disaster Management & Preparedness. Nathan’s practical background includes 10 years as an on-air Meteorologist and Reporter for television news affiliates with a strong emphasis in educating the public about disasters and how to better prepare for them. Nathan earned an M.A. in Communication from Hawai'i Pacific University, a Certificate of Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University, and graduated Magna cum Laude in Journalism from Northwestern University. He earned his National Weather Association Broadcaster’s Seal of Approval in 2001 and was recertified through continuing education units in 2004 and 2007.

Information on the Researchers

Information on the Researchers

Stacy L. Barnes Stacy Barnes works in the Office of Emergency Management for the City of Compton in

California.

Barnes’s practical background includes three years of working in the emergency management field in southern California and one year in the field of communications, working in Hawai’i Governor Linda Lingle’s Communications Department. Barnes earned an M.A. in Communication from Hawai'i Pacific University, an M.S. in Emergency Management Administration from California State University Long Beach, and graduated with a B.A. in English, and a Secondary Education Certificate, from Washington College in Chestertown, MD.

References

Aguilera, D., & Zeppelin, J. (2008, June 26). Denver’s big blizzards. In M. Alger (Chair), Welcome to Denver! Symposium conducted at the American Meteorological Society 36th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology, Denver, Colorado. Alexander, D. (2002). Principles of emergency planning and management. New York: Oxford University Press. Assmann, J. (1992). Cultural memory: Writing, remembering and political identity in early civilizations. Munich: Beck. Brown, J. (2006, December 21). More than 2 feet expected for area before storm exits. Denver Post. Retrieved January 8, 2007, from http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_4872351 Changing from what WAS to what IS the future of integrated weather studies. (2008, February). Weather and Society * Integrated Studies Mission. Retrieved September 21, 2008, from http://www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/ Drobot, S. (2007, July). Evaluation of winter storm warnings: A case study of the Colorado Front Range December 20-21, 2006, winter storm. Quick Response Report, (192), 1-8. Dutton, J.A. (2002, September). Opportunities and priorities in a new era for weather and climate services. American Meteorological Society, 1303-1311. Friedländer, S. (1979). When memory comes. New York: Farrar, Strauss, Giroux. Gonzales, M., & McPhee, M. (2007, April 13). Snow makes a quick return. Denver Post, p. B-01.

References

Halbwachs, M. (1980). On Collective Memory. (F. J. Ditter, Jr. & V. Y. Ditter, Trans.). New York: Harper & Row. (Original work published 1950) Halbwachs, M. (1992). On Collective Memory. (L.W. Coser, Ed. & Trans.).New York: Harper Colophon. (Original work published 1950) Kohler, J. (2006, December 22). Frustration continues at DIA. Denver Post. Retrieved September 19, 2008 from http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_4886944 Lazo, J.K., & Chestnut, Lauraine G. (2002, November 22). Economic value of current and improved weather forecasts in the U.S. household section (Executive Summary No. 10050). Boulder, CO: Stratus Consulting. Morss, R.E., Demuth, J.L, & Lazo, J.K. (2008, February 28). Communicating uncertainty in weather forecasts: A survey of the U.S. public. Weather and Forecasting. National Climatic Data Center. (2006). Preliminary local climatological data for WFO Denver/Boulder. Boulder, CO: Author. Retrieved May 5, 2008, from http://www.crh.noaa.gov.bou/include/showClimate.php Roberts, M. (2007, February 15). The messengers. Denver Westword. Retrieved February 16, 2007, from http://westerword.com/2007-02-15/news/the-messengers/full Schwartz, B. (1996, Fall). Introduction: The expanding past. Qualitative Sociology, 19(3), 275-282. Williamson, D. (2007, February 15). Snow show. The Other Paper. Retrieved February 16, 2007, from http://theother paper.com/TOP2-15/2-15_coverstory.html

References

The researchers would like to extend a special thanks to the following individuals for providing their time and expertise:

Julie Demuth Associate Scientist

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Institute for the Study of Society and Environment (ISSE)

Research Applications Laboratory (RAL) Boulder, Colorado

Sheldon Drobot, Ph.D. Research Associate

Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research University of Colorado at Boulder

Lisa Gahm Operations Manager

Denver International Airport

Robert Glancy Warning Coordination Meteorologist

National Weather Service Boulder, Colorado

Daniel Nietfeld Science and Operations Officer (SOO)

National Weather Service Omaha, Nebraska

Dan Roberts Deputy Manager of Operations

Denver Public Works Department

Kathy Sherman-Morris Assistant Professor

Department of Geosciences Mississippi State University

Steven Steed Director

Office of Emergency Management Denver, Colorado