NUMBERS NUMBERS Kiersten Adams Kiersten Adams Jay Singerman Jay Singerman Jen Storch Jen Storch Ashley Thomas Ashley Thomas James Trinidad James Trinidad
Jan 16, 2016
NUMBERSNUMBERS
Kiersten Adams Kiersten Adams Jay Singerman Jay Singerman
Jen Storch Jen Storch Ashley Thomas Ashley Thomas James Trinidad James Trinidad
AgendaAgenda IntroductionIntroduction Numbers as MetaphorsNumbers as Metaphors Numbers as Norms and SymbolsNumbers as Norms and Symbols Hidden Stories in NumbersHidden Stories in Numbers Making Numbers in the PolisMaking Numbers in the Polis Numbers in HealthcareNumbers in Healthcare Questions?Questions?
Problem DefinitionProblem Definition
How do we know there is a disparity How do we know there is a disparity between social goals and the current between social goals and the current state of affairs?state of affairs?
We must define a problem.We must define a problem. But, problem definition is not simple: But, problem definition is not simple:
it is a strategic representation of it is a strategic representation of situations.situations.
Problem Definition Problem Definition ContinuedContinued
There are many ways to define There are many ways to define problems in policy discourse.problems in policy discourse.
Each mode is a language which Each mode is a language which people utilize to defend conflicting people utilize to defend conflicting interpretations.interpretations.
One common way to define a policy-One common way to define a policy-related problem is to measure it.related problem is to measure it.
Elephant exampleElephant example
Say I hire you to measure an elephant?Say I hire you to measure an elephant? It sounds straightforward, but its not!It sounds straightforward, but its not! What information do you collect?What information do you collect? Weight?, height?, length?, volume?, Weight?, height?, length?, volume?,
intensity of its color gray?, number of intensity of its color gray?, number of wrinkles?wrinkles?
The fundamental issues of any policy The fundamental issues of any policy problem are always contained in the problem are always contained in the question of how to count the problem.question of how to count the problem.
Counting ElephantsCounting Elephants
Round?
YesNoPrimaryColor?Square?
Yes Yes
No No
Red?
GiraffeGator
Green?
ElephantMonkeyLion Snake
NoYes
No
Yes
Counting As…Counting As…
Counting the problem involves a Counting the problem involves a strategic representation of the situation.strategic representation of the situation.
Every description of a situation is a Every description of a situation is a portrayal from only one of many points of portrayal from only one of many points of view.view.
So, counting always involves deliberate So, counting always involves deliberate decisions about decisions about counting ascounting as..
Counting must begin with categorization.Counting must begin with categorization.
CategorizationCategorization
Notice how political counting sounds?Notice how political counting sounds? Counting must be about:Counting must be about:
inclusion/exclusion: terms that inclusion/exclusion: terms that suggest community, boundaries, allies, suggest community, boundaries, allies, enemiesenemies
Selection: terms that imply privilege and Selection: terms that imply privilege and discriminationdiscrimination
Important characteristics: terms that Important characteristics: terms that suggest value judgments and hierarchysuggest value judgments and hierarchy
Numbers as MetaphorsNumbers as Metaphors
Numbers as MetaphorsNumbers as Metaphors
To categorize in counting or to To categorize in counting or to analogize in metaphors is to select analogize in metaphors is to select one feature of something, assert a one feature of something, assert a likeness on the basis of that feature, likeness on the basis of that feature, and ignore all the other features.and ignore all the other features.
Counting requires judgment about Counting requires judgment about inclusion and exclusion.inclusion and exclusion.
Counting SchemesCounting Schemes
Counting schemes are subject to 2 Counting schemes are subject to 2 possible challenges:possible challenges:
(1)(1) Asserting a real likeness where a Asserting a real likeness where a measure finds a difference (Including measure finds a difference (Including something the measure excludes)something the measure excludes)
(2)(2) Asserting a real difference where a Asserting a real difference where a measure finds a likeness (Excluding measure finds a likeness (Excluding something the measure includes)something the measure includes)
Clear RulesClear Rules
Often times, conflict in policy is over Often times, conflict in policy is over what legitimately counts as whatwhat legitimately counts as what
Numbers are used to settle the Numbers are used to settle the discussionsdiscussions
The need for clear rules drives The need for clear rules drives policymakers to establish thresholds policymakers to establish thresholds as dividing linesas dividing lines
Central themeCentral theme
There is no universal, scientific, or objective There is no universal, scientific, or objective method of problem definition.method of problem definition.
Numbers are just one way problems are Numbers are just one way problems are defined in politics - and politicians employ defined in politics - and politicians employ several different counting strategies to set the several different counting strategies to set the problemproblem
Fancy manipulation of numbers equal claims Fancy manipulation of numbers equal claims about similarities and differencesabout similarities and differences
These are the ultimate basis for decisions in These are the ultimate basis for decisions in public policy.public policy.
Numbers as Norms and Numbers as Norms and Symbols Symbols
MeasurementsMeasurements
Imply a need for actionImply a need for action Usually taken because we seek to Usually taken because we seek to
change them or to change our change them or to change our behaviorbehavior
Creates pressure to do something Creates pressure to do something about itabout it
UnemploymentUnemployment
1930s- no unemployment census1930s- no unemployment census 1950s and 60s- 4.6%1950s and 60s- 4.6% 1970s- more than 6%1970s- more than 6% 1980s- 7-9%1980s- 7-9%
A Double- Edged SwordA Double- Edged Sword
U.S. Navy saved 2.5 billion in U.S. Navy saved 2.5 billion in shipping costsshipping costs
Show thrift, successful building, and Show thrift, successful building, and good management?good management?
Show an excess of allocated funds Show an excess of allocated funds that could be cut?that could be cut?
CostCost
Generally think of high costs as badGenerally think of high costs as bad Sometimes, high costs= high qualitySometimes, high costs= high quality
Designer clothes, carsDesigner clothes, cars Is a costly national defense system Is a costly national defense system
waste-ridden or extra secure?waste-ridden or extra secure?
EfficiencyEfficiency
Generally think the more efficient Generally think the more efficient and productive, the betterand productive, the better
Not necessarily so with servicesNot necessarily so with services
Middles and AveragesMiddles and Averages
Often the normOften the norm Political campaigns promote to Political campaigns promote to
“middle class”“middle class” Depends on the categoriesDepends on the categories
Hidden Stories in NumbersHidden Stories in Numbers
Hidden Stories in NumbersHidden Stories in Numbers
Explicit StoriesExplicit Stories Used to authenticate a storyUsed to authenticate a story
Identify causal relationshipsIdentify causal relationships
Implicit StoriesImplicit Stories
More Implicit StoriesMore Implicit Stories
Frequent enough to countFrequent enough to count Clear boundaries make numbers identifiableClear boundaries make numbers identifiable Counting creates a communityCounting creates a community
Natural vs. ArtificialNatural vs. Artificial Political supportPolitical support
Numbers can stimulate conflict resolutionNumbers can stimulate conflict resolution Dividing, weighing, balancingDividing, weighing, balancing
Numbers are symbols of precision and Numbers are symbols of precision and accuracyaccuracy
The Political StoryThe Political Story
In counting, decisions must be made In counting, decisions must be made about inclusion and exclusionabout inclusion and exclusion
Measuring creates norms about how Measuring creates norms about how much is just rightmuch is just right
Ambiguous numbers create room for Ambiguous numbers create room for political strugglespolitical struggles
Numbers tell stories, especially about Numbers tell stories, especially about declinedecline
The Political StoryThe Political Story
Numbers create illusions about Numbers create illusions about complex phenomenon complex phenomenon
Numbers create political Numbers create political communitiescommunities
Counting can help with negotiations Counting can help with negotiations and compromiseand compromise
Numbers create authorityNumbers create authority
Numbers in the PolisNumbers in the Polis
Numbers in the Polis: Numbers in the Polis: People as numbersPeople as numbers
People know when they are being measuredPeople know when they are being measured Examples of people as numbersExamples of people as numbers
Social Security number, UFID, phone number, censusSocial Security number, UFID, phone number, census Bank account number and identity theftBank account number and identity theft
Measurement triggers the natural desire to look goodMeasurement triggers the natural desire to look good Examples: height, business portfolio, IRS & taxesExamples: height, business portfolio, IRS & taxes Therefore, if our measurements do not look good, we are Therefore, if our measurements do not look good, we are
disappointeddisappointed Does “15Does “15thth best” sound good to you? best” sound good to you?
Giving people the option of being counted as something Giving people the option of being counted as something invites people to consider choosing itinvites people to consider choosing it
Implies inclusion and exclusionImplies inclusion and exclusion ““Check one” vs. “Please check all that apply”Check one” vs. “Please check all that apply”
Numbers in the Polis:Numbers in the Polis:CountingCounting
Counting and measurement affect Counting and measurement affect people’s behaviors and perceptionspeople’s behaviors and perceptions Counting enables group (vs. individual) Counting enables group (vs. individual)
discrimination/mobilizationdiscrimination/mobilization Ex. Hate crimesEx. Hate crimes
A formal count normalizes rare eventsA formal count normalizes rare events Ex. War-on-terrorism and American deathsEx. War-on-terrorism and American deaths
Counting/measurement can induce Counting/measurement can induce dissatisfaction and changedissatisfaction and change
Ex. Weight, diet, and Healthy People 2010Ex. Weight, diet, and Healthy People 2010
Numbers & Polis:Numbers & Polis:Record KeepingRecord Keeping
Record keeping is more intense when the Record keeping is more intense when the records are under scrutiny or public attentionrecords are under scrutiny or public attention Reformers try to show that the problem is big, new, Reformers try to show that the problem is big, new,
and not something that has been tolerated for a long and not something that has been tolerated for a long timetime
Ex., Global warmingEx., Global warming As tolerance for annoyances diminishes, then the As tolerance for annoyances diminishes, then the
perception is that annoyances are growingperception is that annoyances are growing Decreased tolerance: increasing inclusion of negativesDecreased tolerance: increasing inclusion of negatives
Ex. Child abuseEx. Child abuse Decreased tolerance: decreasing exclusion of positivesDecreased tolerance: decreasing exclusion of positives
Ex. Affirmative actionEx. Affirmative action
Numbers & Polis:Numbers & Polis:Reactivity and PowerReactivity and Power
Measurement induces incentivesMeasurement induces incentives Measures evaluate performance, rewards, and punishmentMeasures evaluate performance, rewards, and punishment Ex. FCAT (“teaching to the test”)Ex. FCAT (“teaching to the test”)
The power to measure is the power to controlThe power to measure is the power to control The power to include is the power to excludeThe power to include is the power to exclude
Ex. Police, clearance rate (police effectiveness), & crime rateEx. Police, clearance rate (police effectiveness), & crime rate Ex. Political campaigning and measurement of issuesEx. Political campaigning and measurement of issues
Marginal cost – the cost of producing the next itemMarginal cost – the cost of producing the next item May mask the actual cost of production (e.g., Dept. of Defense)May mask the actual cost of production (e.g., Dept. of Defense)
Measurers need the people/organizations they measureMeasurers need the people/organizations they measure Ex. FDA and Big PhRMAEx. FDA and Big PhRMA Likewise, sometimes the measured need measurement for Likewise, sometimes the measured need measurement for
validityvalidity
Numbers in HealthcareNumbers in Healthcare
Numbers in HealthcareNumbers in Healthcare
Alachua County Choices ProgramAlachua County Choices Program Health care coverage for thousands of Health care coverage for thousands of
low-income people low-income people Funding through ¼ cent sales tax Funding through ¼ cent sales tax
increaseincrease How much extra will the average How much extra will the average
consumer have to pay each year?consumer have to pay each year? Number manipulation from both sidesNumber manipulation from both sides
Numbers in HealthcareNumbers in Healthcare
Insurance and Reimbursement RatesInsurance and Reimbursement Rates Reimbursement levels for Medicaid v. Reimbursement levels for Medicaid v.
private insuranceprivate insurance Doctors have an incentive to change Doctors have an incentive to change
their behaviors to treat more private their behaviors to treat more private patientspatients
Doctors can treat fewer Medicaid patientsDoctors can treat fewer Medicaid patients Doctors can spend less time with Medicaid Doctors can spend less time with Medicaid
patientspatients
Numbers in HealthcareNumbers in Healthcare
QualityQuality Number of medical errorsNumber of medical errors Number of procedures performedNumber of procedures performed Number of malpractice suitsNumber of malpractice suits Number of unexpected deathsNumber of unexpected deaths
Numbers in HealthcareNumbers in Healthcare
Quality- Number of medical errorsQuality- Number of medical errors ““Countability”Countability”
Do estimations accurately measure the Do estimations accurately measure the number of medical errors?number of medical errors?
Attention is given to things that are Attention is given to things that are measured measured
Reactive effects- Reactive effects- New York state report cards for heart careNew York state report cards for heart care Once measured, doctor’s outcomes improvedOnce measured, doctor’s outcomes improved
Numbers in HealthcareNumbers in Healthcare
Quality- Number of Procedures Quality- Number of Procedures PerformedPerformed Measure of quality- more experienced Measure of quality- more experienced
doctors should have better resultsdoctors should have better results Measuring this could result in a change Measuring this could result in a change
of behaviorsof behaviors Doctors may perform procedures that aren’t Doctors may perform procedures that aren’t
medically necessary just to increase their medically necessary just to increase their numbersnumbers
Numbers in HealthcareNumbers in Healthcare
Florida’s Malpractice CrisisFlorida’s Malpractice Crisis Counting normalizes and legitimizes Counting normalizes and legitimizes
problemsproblems Attention to the problem increases the Attention to the problem increases the
number of reported casesnumber of reported cases Highly publicized cases/large award casesHighly publicized cases/large award cases
Questions?Questions?