Nuclear proliferation. Nature of nuclear weapons and their effects Diffusion of nuclear and missile technology Theorizing nuclear proliferation and non-

Nuclear proliferation

• Nature of nuclear weapons and their effects• Diffusion of nuclear and missile technology• Theorizing nuclear proliferation and non-

proliferation• Evolution of global nuclear control and anti-

proliferation measure.

Introduction

• NPT acknowledge five NWS. Other states called near-clear states have the capacity to construct nuclear devices.

• Different regions have different attitudes to nuclear weapons and thus result in nuclearization and denuclearization in different regions.

• The dissolution of Soviet Union is the only case where a NWS has been subjected to political disintegration.

• During cold war, It would be more difficult to ensure nuclear stability without policies such as Cooperative Threat Reduction Programme and agreements like multilateral NPT.

• It is very controversial whether nuclear deterrence maintained stability during cold war and if it induce similar stabilizing effects on other conflict situations.

Waltz thesis

• Nuclear weapons have spread rather than proliferated.

• Nuclear weapons have spread horizontally to other states only slows.

• The gradual spread of nuclear weapons is better than either no spread or rapid spread.

• NWS feels the constraints about using nuclear weapons.

• The likelihood of war decreases due to deterrent and defensive capacities .

• Second nuclear age is more dangerous than first nuclear age because the nuclear dilemma is unable to alleviate.

Nature of nuclear weapons and their effects

• Technical basis of nuclear weapons. It includes a range of radiological, nuclear, conventional, computational, and electronic technologies.

• Fission weapon 裂变 and fusion weapon聚变• Moderator. Uranium. A process called

enrichment. • Nuclear weapons produce energy in three

forms, blast, heat and nuclear radiation-EMP

Diffusion of nuclear and missile technology

• The nature of nuclear weapons and dissemination of the capacities to manufacture them around the world since 1945 makes nuclear proliferation a good illustration of the globalization of world politics.

• There has been a diffusion of ballistic missile and space-launch technology since 1945.

Theorizing nuclear proliferation and non-proliferation

• Nuclear puzzle: What constitutes nuclear proliferation: a single decision to acquire nuclear weapon or a process that may stretch over several years and consequently no one identifiable decision can be located?

• Why? Political realism asserts that in an anarchic international environment states will seek nuclear weapons to enhance their security.

• On Which level? Individual, the organization, the cultural group, the state, the international system, or some combination of these.

• Norms, taboos, and epistemic communities have played an important role in the nuclear context. International norms have been increasingly important both as constraints on nuclear behavior and in setting appropriate standards among a range of actors. NGOs and epistemic communities have also become conduit for ideas on non-proliferation.

• What can explain nuclear ‘non-use’ since 1945?

Nuclear weapon s were useful only in their non-use.• States have been deterred form using nuclear

weapons because of concerns of retaliation in kind by adversaries.

Nuclear motivations

• Second World War: It was seen as war-fighting or war-winning weapons. The role of bombings in Japan’s was to make them surrender.

• Later: One of the principal motivations for acquisition was the deterrence of other nuclear weapons-capable states.

• Similarly: political and prestige benefits were also significant.

A range of factors that may affect nuclear weapons acquisition

• Traditional technological factors• A cadre of trained nuclear scientists who

encourage acquisition• The domestic political situation may propel a

state towards nuclear weapons • Diplomatic bargaining: Nuclear weapons can be

used to bargain with perceived allies and enemies. • Non-intervention: It can deter or prevent

intervention

Nuclear restraint and nuclear reversal

• Changes in strategic circumstances, such as the forgoing of an alliance with a NWS

• Technical difficulties in the construction of the weapon may have been encountered

• A perception emerges that the acquisition of such weapons would increase vulnerabilities.

Transnational actors

• States are no longer the sole focus of attention, as non-state actors have also featured.

• It is possible for a terrorist group to build a crude nuclear device provided it had sufficient quantities of chemical high explosives and weapons-usable fissile materials.

Nuclear capabilities and intentions

• South Africa had produced six nuclear devices prior to 1989 but had dismantled them before signing the NPT.

• The complexity surrounding compliance with international obligations has been a feature of debate since 1990s .

Evolution of global nuclear control and anti-proliferation measures: early efforts, 1945-70

• Nuclear control and anti-proliferation measures have been evolving since 1945

• In January 1946 the UN General Assembly passed a resolution establishing the UN Atomic Energy Commission (UNAEC).

• IAEA (29 July 1957) established a safeguards system to ensure that materials in the nuclear energy programmes were not diverted for military use.

• In the late 1950s CTBT (comprehensive test ban treaty) called for the three NWSs to engage in nuclear disarmament. Due to the absence of the provisions for a system that could provide assurance of detection of violation, especially for underground testing.

• Partial Test Ban Treaty(1963) prohibited nuclear testing in the atmosphere, in outer space, and underwater, and meant that future testing had to be conducted underground.

• The first NWFZ applied to a populated region is the Treaty for the prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America , which was opened for signature in 1967. NWFZs and NPT members have been increasing

Anti-proliferation efforts since 1970

• Formed in 1975, Nuclear suppliers group agreed that additional conditions should be attached to sensitive nuclear exports like reprocessing and uranium enrichment plants.

• In 1978, NWSs issued unilateral statements on so-called negative security assurances on the use of nuclear against NNWSs. Only China’s was unconditional.

• In 1987,MTCR(Missile Technology Control Regime) was introduced as a supply arrangement seeks ‘to limit the risks of nuclear proliferation by controlling transfers of technology which could make a contribution to nuclear weapons delivery systems other than manned aircraft.

• The Hague Code of Conduct was launched in 2002 to develop standards of appropriate behavior in the transfer of missiles and missile parts.

• In 1996, although a comprehensive test ban treaty was opened for signature , it has not entered into force.

• Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty encountered problem that whether it should prevent future production of fissile materials only or remove existing stockpiles.

• New measures have been implemented in response to the consequences of nuclear globalization.

Measures should be focused on for non-proliferation

• Raise the costs of nuclear acquisition• Develop standards of nuclear and missile

behavior• Create the conditions allowing for reductions

in nuclear stockpiles to occur in a safe and secure manner.

Q&A

1. Will terrorists use nuclear weapons?

2. What do you think is the motivation for DPRK to develop nuclear weapon and do you think they are likely to use it or just nuclear deterrence? How do you suggest for the denuclearization of Korean peninsula?

Yes

• Terrorists have been trying to obtain this material from Iraq and Pakistan, Bin Laden says ‘acquiring such weapons for the defense of Muslims is a religious duty.

• It is likely that they may explode a ‘dirty bomb’ on a target that contains radioactive material.

• Stockpiles still exist in some states, which have weaponizable uranium and plutonium, and a black market for nuclear materials still survives.

No

• Global nuclear control and anti-proliferation measures have been evolving since 1945. Organization like IAEA and treaties like CTBT and FMCT are able to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons.