Jan 11, 2016
Seminar 6Feb20072
Global trend on nuclear powerNuclear Power ReactorsCharacteristics of nuclear power optionFuture projectionsIntroducing Nuclear PowerSummary
Seminar 6Feb20073
Current worldwide nuclear generating capacityCommercial NPPs in Operation 435 (367.8 GWe)Share of nuclear electricity 16%
Slowdown of capacity addition since late 80’s Electricity market deregulationSlow growth of electricity demand in advanced countriesPublic PerceptionEconomic reforms in Russia and EE countries
Nuclear electricity increased due to availability increase Best practice prevailing Consolidation to those who perform best Risk-informed regulation
Plant life extension and power uprating Current expansion in Asia Rising expectation to the role of nuclear power
Trend on Nuclear Power
Seminar 6Feb20074
17/29 in AsiaIndia 7China 4 (+2 in Taiwan, China)Japan 1ROK 1Pakistan 1Iran 1Russia 5 Ukraine 2Bulgaria 2Romania 1Finland 1Argentina 1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
GW
(e)
NA WE Russia & EE Japan & ROK Developing
North America
Western Europe
FSU / EEJapan / ROK
Developing countries
Current expansion is in Asia and Eastern Europe
Seminar 6Feb20075
Fig.1: Contributions to nuclear production growth
1990-2004
Uprating7%
New capacity
36%
Availability increase
57%
From 1990 through 2004, global nuclear electricity production increased ~40%
Seminar 6Feb20076
Operational reactors by age (January 2007)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
50%75%
Age distribution (327/435 over or equal to 20)
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0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
Capacity with 100% license renewal
Current licensed capacity (w/o license renewal)
Megawatts
Megawatts
Long-term operationLong-term operation
Life = Components specific (degradation, obsoleteness) Monitoring and replacement “License Renewal” (US), “Periodic Safety Review” (Europe) Coupled with power uprating, enhancing capacity
US projection
Seminar 6Feb20078
Projection in France
Source : EDF, ENC 2002
Long-term operationLong-term operation
Seminar 6Feb20079
Support to informed decision-making on Plant Life Management
Guideline for PLiM Guideline for aging management
Monitoring, Inspection &
MaintenanceAssessment method
on Integrity of Structure,
System and Components
Support to
Informed decision-making on PLiM by Member States
Database
TC
Seminar 6Feb200710
Global trend on nuclear powerNuclear Power ReactorsCharacteristics of nuclear power optionFuture projectionsIntroducing Nuclear Power
Seminar 6Feb200711
Typical Nuclear Power Plant
Nuclear Island-Nuclear Reaction
- Fuel- Controls
-Heat transport- Pumps & Valves- Heat Exchangers- Electrical, Controls
- Safety Systems(for key safety functions)
Turbine IslandPower conversion system - Turbine & Generator - Pumps, heat exchangers - Controls
Seminar 6Feb200712
Reactor types
Classification by neutron energy spectrum• Fast neutron reactor• Thermal neutron reactor
Classification by coolant • Gas-cooled (CO2, Helium)• Water-cooled (Heavy water, Light water)• Liquid Metal-cooled (Sodium, Lead, Lead-Bismuth etc)• Molten salt-cooled
435 commercial reactor in operation (as of today) 264 PWR, 93 BWR, 42 PHWR, 18 GCR, 16 LWGR(RBMK), 2 FR
Non-conventional concepts• Gas-core reactor• Accelerator Driven System (sub-critical)
Seminar 6Feb200713
Fuel Sphere
Half S ec tion
Coated P ar tic le
Fuel
Dia. 60m m
Dia. 0,92m m
Dia.0,5m m
5m m Graphite layer
Coated partic les im beddedin G raphite Matrix
P yro lytic C a rbon S ilicon C arb ite Ba rr ie r C oating Inner P yro ly tic C a rbon P orous C arbon B uffe r
40/1000m m
35/1000m m
40/1000m m
95/1000m m
Uranium Dioxide
FUEL ELEMENT DES IGN FOR PBMR
LWR (Light Water Reactor) fuel
Coated particle fuel
One pellet (1cm x 1cm) can produce 3000 KWhr (0.8 x yearly consumption in one household in Japan)
pellet
ReactorFuel Assembly
Fuel style • pellets in rods• coated particle• molten-salt etc.
Fissile Material• Uranium• Thorium• Plutonium etc.
Nuclear Fuel
Seminar 6Feb200714
Fission process and released energy
1 fission releases 200 MeV1 D-D fusion reaction releases 3.27 MeV1 chemical reaction (burning fossil) releases several eV
LWR power density in the reactor core : 50-100 KWth/literSolar power : use 1.3 kwth/sq. meter
Neutron
Fissile material
Fission Products
Neutron
ScatteredAbsorbed - capture - fission
Seminar 6Feb200715
Fissile material composition changes with burnup
Uranium fuel producesPlutonium by U238 absorbing neutron.
What produces energy in LWR?
Seminar 6Feb200716
Neutron interaction with fissile material depends on neutron energy
Higher potential for fission in lower neutron energy region
High potential of capture by U238 between fast and thermal
Seminar 6Feb200717
Thermal reactor
Fast reactor
epi-
thermal
neutron
resonance
neutron
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 eV 10 100 1keV 10 100 1MeV 10
thermal
neutronFast
neutron
neutron interaction capabilityin thermal neutron region
RED = fission BLUE = absorption
U235
Pu239
Pu241
Neutron energy
Distribution ofneutron energy in nuclear reactor
Seminar 6Feb200718
Potential for producing more fuel than is consumed
Neutron Energy [eV]
Nr.
of
neu
tro
ns
pro
du
ced
by
fiss
ion
Condition for breeding : more than 2 neutron produced Possible for
• Fast neutron (U235, Pu239 , U233) (Fast reactor)• Thermal neutron (U233) (Use Th as fertile)
Seminar 6Feb200719
MOST ELECTRICITY IS PRODUCED BY TURNING AN ELECTRIC GENERATOR
Seminar 6Feb200720
Evolution of reactor technology -US classification of reactor technology by generation-
Seminar 6Feb200721
Current trends in reactor design evolution
Designed considering “User requirements” Design considering 60 years life Design for maintenance – online or during outage Design for easier & shorter construction Use modern technologies - digital control, modern man-machine interface,
- computer-aided design - safety system design guided by Probabilistic Safety assessment etc.
Simplicity by reducing Nr. & rotating components Build safety into the design - increased margins - severe accident measures Complete and standardized designs with pre-licensing
Seminar 6Feb200722
Simplicity - case of BWR steam generating system-
Evolutionarywith
Active Safety
Innovativewith
Passive Safety
Generation 3 & 3+Current or Generation 1 & 2
Seminar 6Feb200723
Shorter construction period
Seminar 6Feb200724
Modern man-machine interface
Old Control Rooms
Modern Control Room- Large mimic display- Trend display- Operating console with touch screen- Other ergonomic considerations
Seminar 6Feb200725
Global trend on nuclear powerNuclear Power ReactorsCharacteristics of nuclear power option - Resources - GHG emission - Potential for non-electric application - EconomicsFuture projectionsIntroducing Nuclear Power
Seminar 6Feb200726
1. ResourcesUranium resources
“Uranium 2005” by OECD/NEA and IAEA Total identified 4.7 Million Ton (<USD130/Kg U) Total undiscovered (Prognosticated & speculative) 10 Million Ton (<USD130/Kg U)
Current consumption = 68,000 Ton/year for 360GWe• R/P with comfortable margin • Closed fuel cycle using FR further extends this margin
R/P (total conventional) R/P (conventional & phosphate)LWR 270 years 675 yearsFast Reactor 8000 years ~20,000 years
Seawater 4500 Million Tons
Source: Uranium 2005
Seminar 6Feb200727
2. GHG emission2. GHG emissionCO2 emission rates from electricity generationCO2 emission rates from electricity generation
CCS: Carbon Capture & StorageCCS: Carbon Capture & Storage
[SOURCE] EC, External Costs – Research Results on Socio-Environmental Damages due to Electricity and Transport, EC Study EUR 20198, Brussels, 2003
Seminar 6Feb200728
Stabilizing CO2 emission rates from Stabilizing CO2 emission rates from Diversifying generation sourceDiversifying generation source
[SOURCE] TEPCO Environmental Report
TEPCO, JapanTEPCO, Japan
Seminar 6Feb200729
3. Non-electric applications
Most of the world’s energy consumption : heat and transportation.
Nuclear Energy has potential for use in these energy sectors currently served by fossil fuels (price volatility and finite supply) without emitting GHG.
ApplicationsHigh temperature (900-1100 deg C)
• Hydrogen (energy carrier) production• Coal liquefaction
Medium temperature (400-600 deg C)• Recovery of oil from tar sand• Chemical processing
Low temperature (less than 200 deg C)• Desalination• District heating
Transportation15%
Heat55%
Electricity30%
Energy consumption by application
Seminar 6Feb200730
New plants Levelized cost study : OECD/NEA and IAEA (2005) least cost option by levelized cost (25-40 years) in recent European country studies (Finland, UK, Belgium, France) Before amortization, not necessarily a preferred option University of Chicago Study (August 2004) proposed federal financial policies for new nuclear plan Energy Policy Act of 2005 (USA)
“External” cost Nuclear power: most ‘external’ costs are internalized Comparative Assessment including externality
• Climate change• Energy security
4. Economics of nuclear power4. Economics of nuclear power
Seminar 6Feb200731
U.S. Electricity “Production Costs”(amortization not included)1995-2005
(Averages in 2005 cents per kilowatt-hour)
Capacity factor (up)Refueling outage duration (down)Forced outage rate (down)
NuclearNuclear
CoalCoal
GasGas
OilOil
Seminar 6Feb200732
The impact of the emission tradingThe impact of the emission trading on the electricity on the electricity generation cost (Prof. generation cost (Prof. VoßVoß , Univ. of Stuttgart) , Univ. of Stuttgart)
Seminar 6Feb200733
Global trend on nuclear powerNuclear Power ReactorsCharacteristics of nuclear power optionFuture projectionsIntroducing Nuclear Power
Seminar 6Feb200734
IAEA’s high projections
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
GW
(e)
Projection date20012002200320042005
Seminar 6Feb200735
Nuclear Power in IPCC-SRES 4 storylines by 2050Nuclear Power in IPCC-SRES 4 storylines by 2050 (Special Report on Emission Scenarios)(Special Report on Emission Scenarios)
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
20
40
60
80
100
120
A1T
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
A2
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
B1
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
OECD
REF
Asia
ROW
B2
Convergence among regions Heterogeneous world
Emphasis on global social & environmental sustainability
Local solution
Seminar 6Feb200736
Ambitious near-term expansion plans
Declared near-term deployment plans (different in various sources )
CURRENT (% of total production) NEAR-TERM EXPANSION PLAN
(Asia)China 6.6 GWe (2.03%) 40 GWe (4%) by 2020 x 6
…2x 1000 MWe plant/yearIndia 3.0 GWe (2.8%) 29.5 GWe (10%) by 2022 x 9ROK 16.8 GWe (44.7%) 26.6 GWe by 2015 x 1.6Pakistan 0.4 GWe (2.8%) 8.5 GWe by 2030 x 20
(Eastern Europe)Russia 21.7 GWe (15.8%) 40 GWe (25%) by 2020 x 2Ukraine: 13.1 GWe (48.5%) 20-22 GWe by 2030 x 1.5
Seminar 6Feb200737
US New Reactor Licensing Applications20122011201020092008200720062005
AP 1
00
0 P
rog
ram
Revie
wES
BW
RPro
gra
m R
evie
wU
nsp
eci
fied
AB
WR
Pro
gra
m
Revie
wEPR
Pro
gra
m R
evie
w2013
Design Cert
Design Certification
UniStar—Calvert Cliffs (MD) Hearing
UniStar—Nine Mile Pt (NY) Hearing
Design Certification
Dominion—North Anna (VA) Hearing
NuStart—Grand Gulf (MS) Hearing
Entergy—River Bend (LA) Hearing
Unannounced Applicant ESP Hearing
Duke—Cherokee (SC)
Hearing
Progress Energy—Harris (NC) Hearing
HearingSouth Carolina E&G—Summer
Progress Energy—TBD (FL) Hearing
Southern—Vogtle (GA) Hearing
FPL No Site or Vendor Specified Hearing
NuStart—Bellefonte (AL) Hearing
Amarillo Power Hearing
Vogtle ESP Hearing
North Anna ESP Hearing
Grand Gulf ESP Hearing
UniStar—EPR—COL 3 Hearing
UniStar—EPR—COL 4 Hearing
UniStar—EPR—COL 5 Hearing
NRG Energy—South Texas Project Hearing
Duke ESP Hearing
Duke ESP Hearing
Unannounced Applicant COL Hearing
Clinton ESP Hearing
Courtesy of Mr. Wang, Bechtel
Seminar 6Feb200738
rising expectation : background and prospect
Background; Recognition of nuclear power as an important option in the nation’s future energy portfolio
• Confidence from operational trend (Stable and competitive in many places around the world)
• Growing need for energy in developing countries• Environmental concern (GHG emission, air pollution)• Concern over energy supply security
Expansion will depend on;• Diligence and vigilance in safe operation of current fleet• Continued vigilance in safeguard• Economic competitiveness, Financing arrangement• Implementation of waste disposal• Public perception• Individual nation’s policy on environment, security etc.
Seminar 6Feb200739
Agency’s approach in providing support
Recommend comprehensive assessment of infrastructure preparedness to avoid missing factors for effective implementation of NE plan to achieve the use of NE in safe, secure, technically sound manner
Recommend the use of relevant Agency’s document Recommend regional approach for efficiency Through TCP (if TC recipient country) Inter-departmental coordinated response Nuclear Power Support Group (NPSG)
To ensure coordinated response to MS request for supportTo share information in the Agency etc.
Seminar 6Feb200740
Agency’s ongoing/planned activities
Guidance documents
Released “Basic infrastructure for a nuclear power projects” (TECDOC 1513, June 2006)
Released “Potential for sharing nuclear power infrastructure between countries (TECDOC 1522, October 2006)
Preparing publication of new documents• Planning for the first NPP (yet-to-be-published)• Milestone document (yet-to-be-drafted) and associated
measuring indexAssessment of all previously developed Agency
documentation & update : ongoing
Seminar 6Feb200741
By the time of:• Formal Intention To Implement Nuclear Power Program• Ready to issue Invitation To Bid• Ready for Commercial Operation
Expected preparedness and competency in key areas of;• Legal Framework/Regulatory Framework• Managing Organization• Training and Human Resources• Sites & Supporting Facilities• Financial arrangement• Public understanding/Public involvement in decision-making• Grid • Fuel cycle • Safeguards and security applications etc.
Use : MS’s self-assessment & review by international experts for assessment of the preparedness, prioritization & identification
of areas for further work/Agency’s cooperation
Milestones in the matrix form
Seminar 6Feb200742
Agency’s ongoing/planned activities
TCP (Technical Cooperation Project) for new build Current : 6 TCP including coupling with desalination 2007-8 : 12 countries plus 2 regional projects
Response to specific requestsWorkshops and Conferences
“Issues for the Introduction of Nuclear Power” (Dec2006) Similar workshop planned for 2007 w/focus on milestone doc. Regional workshops planned Participation to regional conferences on NE 2nd Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Power in the 21st Century
Institutional arrangements International cooperation in Fuel cycle, Licensing, Financing …
Seminar 6Feb200743
SUMMARY
New capacity addition dwindled after mid 80’s Increased availability Active programme for plant life management and power
uprating Technology evolution continues Globally growing interest to the role of nuclear power Agency’s support to developing country’s
infrastructure building through; Guidance documents and review/support missions Workshops and Conferences TCP under inter-departmental coordination
Seminar 6Feb200744
…Thank you for your attention
Seminar 6Feb200745
Guideline documents to assist the first NPP Plan
Already published in the last 20+ years, but needs updating• TRS 224 “Interaction of Grid Characteristics with Design and performance of NPPs (1983)
• TRS-392 “Design Features to Facilitate Safeguards at Future Water Cooled NPPS” (1981)• TRS 200 “Manpower Development for Nuclear Power: (1980).• Introduction of Nuclear Power: A Guidebook, TRS No. 217 (1982)• Promotion and Financing of Nuclear Power Programmes in Developing Countries, (1987)• TRS 281 “Developing Industrial Infrastructures to Support a Programme of Nuclear Power” (1988)• Policy Planning for Nuclear Power: An Overview of the Main Issues and Requirements (1993)• Choosing the Nuclear Power Option: Factors to be considered (1996)• TRS No. 396 “Economic Evaluation of Bids for NPPs” ( 1999) • TecDoc 1259 “Nuclear Power Programme Planning : An Integrated Approach “ (2001)