Nuclear Energy and the Decarbonisation of Electricity · •Nuclear energy can play a large role in the future, but the electricity markets must be modernized and nuclear technology
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• Paris Agreement is intended to hold “increase inglobal average temperature to well below 2°C”.
• Current emission intensity is 570 gCO2/kWh - targetis 50 gCO2/kWh
• Electricity contributes 40% of global CO2 emissionsand will play key role. Annual emissions fromelectricity will need to decline 73% (global) and 85%(OECD countries).
Paris Agreement Implies a 50 gCO2/kWh Target
Source: OECD Environmental Outlook
GHG Emissions will need to decline despite GDP growth ...
• Total system costs are the sum of plant-level generation costs and grid-level system costs • System costs are mainly due to characteristics intrinsic to variable generation
System costs depend on:– Local & regional factors
and the existing mix – VRE penetration and
load profiles– Flexibility resources
(hydro, storage, interconnections)
Additional impacts on load factors of dispatchable generators and prices.
• High VRE penetration result in challenges for system management.• Residual demand (BLUE line) – the available market for dispatchable generation becomes
receives most focus, around 20% ofall , CO2 emissions originate fromindustrial processes requiring heat.
Nuclear energy can play a largerole in the future of both electricityand industrial heat – if it can adaptto future markets.
Currently, nuclear energy use is ona path to decline in OECD countriesand grow in non-OECD countries inAsia, Africa, the Middle East, andLatin America.
Nuclear Innovation Headwinds:Little Progress in the Last 25 years
COST•Nuclear technology researchbudgets have been under pressure inmost countries for the last decade.
•Nuclear technology often requiresan order-of-magnitude increase infunding to transition betweenresearch and engineering-scaledemonstration.
•The cost and risk of nucleartechnology innovation has becomeprohibitive in many countries.
REGULATORY•The job of today’s nuclearregulatory organisations is to assurepublic safety, not to promoteinnovation.
•Regulators in most countries willnot actively participate intechnology development – but willwait for the finished technology tobe presented for approval.
•Regulators are often viewed byresearchers and industry as abarrier to innovation.
INFRASTRUCTURE•Unlike many other areas ofinnovation, nuclear technology oftenrequires the availability of specialfacilities (test reactor, hot cells, testloops, etc.) and nuclear-skilledworkers.
•Tests using fissile materials requireappropriate facilities, trainedworkforce, security and licencing.
•Much of the global infrastructurewas built more than 40 years ago andis shrinking steadily.
•To meet global energy and environmental requirements, all low-carbon technologies must be applied in an optimized fashion.
•Nuclear energy can play a large role in the future, but the electricity markets must be modernized and nuclear technology must evolve to meet global needs
•In today’s environment, SMRs appear to have the best prospects for significant new nuclear deployment in OECD countries
•For the long-term future, we will need advanced fission energy technology that can be built and operated at costs comparable to other energy technologies.