NTHMP Warning Coordination Subcommittee Meeting February 1, 2011 Charles McCreery Director NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Center Pacific Tsunami Warning.

NTHMP Warning Coordination Subcommittee Meeting

February 1, 2011

Charles McCreeryDirector

NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Center

Pacific Tsunami Warning Center 2/26/11 Chile Tsunami Summary

PTWC Timeline Overview

TIME (HST) EVENT

2/26 8:34PM Mw 8.8 Earthquake Occurs in Chile

February 26, 2010 Mw 8.8 Chile Earthquake

Aftershocks show Fault Dimensions

From USGS

238 aftershocks as of 3/18/10

PTWC Timeline Overview

TIME (HST) EVENT

2/26 8:34PM Mw 8.8 Earthquake Occurs in Chile

8:46PM Chile-Peru put in Warning, Ecuador in Watch

February 26, 2010 Mw 8.8 Chile Earthquake

PTWC Timeline Overview

TIME (HST) EVENT

2/26 8:34PM Mw 8.8 Earthquake Occurs in Chile

8:46PM Chile-Peru put in Warning, Ecuador in Watch

8:49PM Hawaii put in Advisory* Status

*Advisory under former definition was heads-up

Historical Tsunamigenic Earthquakes

YEAR PLACE MAGMAXIMUM HAWAII

RUNUP

1819 N. Chile 8.5 2 m = 6.5 ft

1837 S. Chile 8.5 6 m = 19.7 ft

1868 N. Chile 8.5 4.5 m = 14.7 ft

1877 N. Chile 8.3 4.8 m = 15.7 ft

1906 C. Chile 8.2 3.5 m = 11.5 ft

1922 N. Chile 8.5 2.1 m = 6.9 ft

1960 C. Chile 9.5 10.7 m = 35.1 ft

Historical Chile Tsunami Impacts in Hawaii

GAUGE TIME (HST) Max Amplitude*

Talcahuano 8:53 PM 7.7 ft, then failed

Valparaiso 9:08 PM 4.2 ft

San Antonio 9:39 PM ETA failed

Corral 9:39 PM 2.9 ft

Juan Fernandez 9:49 PM failed

San Felix 10:15 PM 1.7 ft

Coquimbo 10:52 PM 4.3 ft

Iquique 11:06 PM 0.9 ft

Antofagasta 11:41 PM 1.6 ft

DART 32412 11:41 PM 0.8 ft

Arica 12:07 AM 3.1 ft

Initial Sea Level Readings

* Measured center-to-peak or half crest-to-trough

SIFT Model - Maximum Amplitudes

PLACESIFT

10:31PRIFT

11:18PATFM11:24P

SIFTw/1-DART

12:33A

Hilo 2.6m 1.6m 1.9m 4.1m

Kawaihae 0.8m 1.6m 1.3m 1.2m

Kahului 2.4m 1.0m 2.5m 2.9m

Honolulu 0.5m 1.2m 0.3m 0.9m

Haleiwa 0.6m 1.1m 0.5m 1.1m

Nawiliwili 0.6m 1.4m 1.1m 0.9m

Initial Forecast Model Guidance for Hawaii

All values are crest-to-trough or double-amplitude in meters

PTWC Timeline Overview

TIME (HST) EVENT

2/26 8:34PM Mw 8.8 Earthquake Occurs in Chile

8:46PM Chile-Peru put in Warning, Ecuador in Watch

8:49PM Hawaii put in Advisory Status

2/27 12:45AM Entire Pacific put in Warning Status

12:46AM Hawaii put in Warning Status

11:15AM

1:38PM

2:12PM

11:40PM

GAUGE TIME (HST) Max Amplitude*

DART 51404 5:31 AM 0.4 m

Hiva Oa 7:45 AM 3.6 m

Nuku Hiva 7:41 AM 1.9 m

Cabo San Lucas 8:33 AM 0.7 m

Additional Sea Level Readings

* Measured crest-to-trough or double-amplitude in meters

PLACESIFT

w/1-DART1:38A

SIFTw/1-DART

4:30A

ATFMw/1-DART

5:10P

SIFTw/2-DART

5:50A

Hilo 2.1m 2.4m 3.6m 2.5m

Kawaihae - 0.7m 2.4m 0.6m

Kahului 2.2m - 4.8m 2.2m

Honolulu 0.7m 0.4m 1.2m 0.5m

Haleiwa - 0.8m 1.0m 0.5m

Nawiliwili - 0.4m 2.2m 0.4m

Further Forecast Model Guidance for Hawaii

All values are crest-to-trough or double-amplitude in meters

PTWC Timeline Overview

TIME (HST) EVENT

2/26 8:34PM Mw 8.8 Earthquake Occurs in Chile

8:46PM Chile-Peru put in Warning, Ecuador in Watch

8:49PM Hawaii put in Advisory Status

2/27 12:45AM Entire Pacific put in Warning Status

12:46AM Hawaii put in Warning Status

11:15AM Tsunami Begins Impacting Hawaii

PLACE Range of Forecasts Observed

Hilo 1.6 - 3.6 m 1.7m

Kawaihae 0.7 - 2.4 m 1.0m

Kahului 1.0 - 4.8 m 2.0m

Honolulu 0.3 - 1.2 m 0.5m

Haleiwa 0.5 – 1.1 m 0.8m

Nawiliwili 0.4 – 1.4 m 0.7m

Tsunami Observations in Hawaii

All values are crest-to-trough or double-amplitude in meters

PTWC Timeline Overview

TIME (HST) EVENT

2/26 8:34PM Mw 8.8 Earthquake Occurs in Chile

8:46PM Chile-Peru put in Warning, Ecuador in Watch

8:49PM Hawaii put in Advisory Status

2/27 12:45AM Entire Pacific put in Warning Status

12:46AM Hawaii put in Warning Status

11:15AM Tsunami Begins Impacting Hawaii

1:38PM Hawaii Warning Cancelled

2:12PM Pacific Cancelled except Japan / Russia

February 26, 2010 Mw 8.8 Chile Earthquake

SIFT Model - Maximum Amplitudes

PTWC Timeline Overview

TIME (HST) EVENT

2/26 8:34PM Mw 8.8 Earthquake Occurs in Chile

8:46PM Chile-Peru put in Warning, Ecuador in Watch

8:49PM Hawaii put in Advisory Status

2/27 12:45AM Entire Pacific put in Warning Status

12:46AM Hawaii put in Warning Status

11:15AM Tsunami Begins Impacting Hawaii

1:38PM Hawaii Warning Cancelled

2:12PM Pacific Cancelled except Japan / Russia

11:40PM Warning for Japan / Russia Cancelled

NTHMP Warning Coordination Subcommittee Meeting

February 1, 2011

Thank You