NSW population forecasts launch event: Return of the premier state?

Key drivers of population change and

population forecasts in NSW

August 2016

.id are population experts (demographers, spatial analysts,

forecasters, urban planners)

.id has Australia’s largest team of population forecasters

We understand how cities are growing and changing

We quantify this knowledge into detailed population

forecasts

Our clients use this knowledge to decide where and when to

invest in infrastructure, services and marketing effort

Over 1.5 million people access .id’s Demographic Resource

Centre every year

We provide the evidence-base for 300 councils Australia-

wide and numerous public and private enterprises

Who are we?

Introducing SAFi

Population growth trends: The Return of the Premier State?

Case study: Anticipating demand at the local level

Questions

Agenda

Population forecasts for New South Wales

Small Area Forecast information

Introducing SAFi

SAFi is a state-wide, micro-geography population forecast

Available for Vic, NSW, ACT & WA.

Provides unprecedented insight into the future of Australia’s population –

macro and the micro level.

Quantifies the demand for services across geographies and over time.

Reflects development activity at a local area level

Regularly updated

Proven over 5 years – third iteration for New South Wales and ACT

What SAFi can tell you?

Population

Dwellings and household types

Single year of age (0-85+ year olds)

Single year of forecast period – 2011 to 2041

Micro-geography – 8,650 SA1-derived areas

Source: id, SAFi

SAFi is granular….8,650 small areas

Who we work with…

300 Local Governments and …

Summary of methodology

State

Regions

Metro regions

Demographic components

Housing components

Determine supply / demand balance

Household characteristics

Amelioration modelling

Small areas

Housing components

Demographic components

Household characteristics

Fertility ratesMortality ratesMigration typologyPop. In non-private dwellings

Relationship in household by ageHousehold yield

Dwelling additionsDemolitionsVacancy rates

Tops-down

Bottoms-up

Key drivers for total pop:Dwelling additions

- Building approvals- Aerial photography- Cordell database & UDP- Council input (Sites, Strategy

and local knowledge)- Land use changes

Population growth trends

Ageing of the population

Changing housing consumption

Three Growth Markets

Sub-state population trends

Conclusions

The Return of the Premier State

Population growth trends

Sydney is a major attractor of overseas migrants

NSW loses population to other States, especially to Queensland

and to a lesser degree Victoria

NSW is ageing but at a lower rate than expected as overseas

migration and more births have supplemented the population

under 40

Births continue to outweigh deaths, but less natural increase over

time, and more older people

How does NSW’s population grow?

Average annual population growth,

Census periods, Major States, 1976-2015*

*Data to December 2015

Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-6 2006-11 2011-15

Ave

rage

an

nu

al g

row

th r

ate

Period

Australia NSW

Vic. Qld

SA WA


Annual population growth rates, Major

States, 2000-2015

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

An

nu

al g

row

th r

ate

Year to June 30

Australia NSW

Vic SA

Qld WA

Net overseas migration has increased and the share to NSW has

increased as Western Australia and Queensland have waned

NSW is losing less population to other States, especially

Queensland and Western Australia

NSW has a solid investment pipeline, which is attractive to

migrants given the fall in construction in resource states

NSW has a stable political environment, with a handsome Premier

Fertility rates increased, leading to a greater gain in births

The return of the Premier State…..

What has changed?


Net overseas migration, New South Wales,

1976-2015

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Shar

e o

f A

ust

ralia

Ne

t o

vers

eas

mig

rati

on

Year ending June 30

Net overseas Migration Share of Australia

Net overseas migration by age,

New South Wales, 2006-2011

Source: .id – SAFi (historical population reconciliation)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Pe

rso

ns

Age group

Net interstate migration, New South

Wales, 1976-2015


-40,000

-35,000

-30,000

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

Ne

t in

ters

tate

mig

rati

on

Year ending June 30

Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2008ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics

Fertility rates and number of births


0.000

0.500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Tota

l Fe

rtili

ty R

ate

Bir

ths

Year

Births Total Fertility Rate

Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014ABS, Deaths Australia

Life expectancy, New South Wales,

1981-2014

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

Life

exp

ect

ancy

Age group

Males

Females

Ageing of the population….

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Pe

rso

ns

Age group

1971

1981

1991

2001

Population by five year age group,



Pop. change by five year age group,



0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Pe

rso

ns

Age group

Population change by five year age group,



-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Pe

rso

ns

Age group

Changing patterns of household formation and the

dwelling demand / supply equation

Changing housing consumption

Average household size, NSW and

major regions, 1981-2011

Source: ABS, Census

2.00

2.20

2.40

2.60

2.80

3.00

3.20

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Ave

rage

ho

use

ho

ld s

ize

Year ending June 30

New South Wales

Metro Sydney

Regional NSW

Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics 2015; ABS, Building Approvals AustraliaNote: 2016 data based on 11 months of data

Population growth & building approvals,


0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Nu

mb

er

Year ending June 30

Population Change

Building approvals

Difference in pop and households at 2011, comparing

2011 to 2006 household relationship data, Sydney

Source: id, unpublished research; ABS, Census

Population by position in householdRelative change

in populationRelative change in households

Relative change in household size

Partner in two parent family -34,671 -17,335 + 0.06

Child or 'dependent' in two parent family 3,893 - -

Couple without children -56,154 -33,912 + 0.04

Parent in one parent family 12,411 12,411 + 0.00

Child or 'dependent' in one parent family 24,940 - -

Person in other family 46,335 4,530 + 0.44

Lone person 12,516 12,516 + 0.00

Person in group household -10,304 -5,731 + 0.05

Non-private dwellings -1,034 0 -

Difference 0 -27,520 + 0.04

Changes are driven by both economic and socio-demographic considerations….

Person in other family 46,335 4,530 + 0.44

Growth of persons in ‘Other Families’, 2006-2011,

Sydney


Change in population

More than +75 persons+40 to +75 persons+15 to +40 persons-15 to +15 persons-40 to -15 personsMore loss than -40 persons

Liverpool + 4,638 persons

Lower North Shore + 435 persons

City / Eastern Suburbs + 1,187 persons

Fairfield + 6,497 persons

Blacktown + 8,599 persons

Campbelltown + 4,199 persons

Bankstown + 4,493 persons

Persons in other families as a share of population

growth, 2006-2011, Sydney LGAs


LGA

Change in persons in

other familiesShare of

pop. growth

Campbelltown 4,199 90.6%

Fairfield 6,497 62.7%

Penrith 3,335 39.1%

Hawkesbury 853 32.4%

Bankstown 4,493 29.8%

Auburn 2,590 26.0%

Blacktown 8,599 25.7%

Liverpool 4,638 25.5%

Rockdale 1,948 25.2%

Wollondilly 877 24.1%

LGA

Change in persons in

other familiesShare of

pop. growth

Hunters Hill -60 -25.4%

Leichhardt -219 -5.0%

North Sydney -111 -2.1%

Mosman -27 -1.5%

Manly -12 -0.3%

Randwick 4 0.0%

Sydney 114 0.6%

Waverley 142 3.2%

Warringah 735 7.3%

Ku-ring-gai 753 7.4%

Highest share by LGA Lowest share by LGA

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1991-1996 1996-2001 2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2031-2036

Dw

elli

ng

gain

Census period

Established

Greenfield

Source: ABS, Census; id, SAFi

Dwelling growth, established versus

greenfield, Sydney, 1991-2036

Historical Forecast

Three Growth Markets

Forecast population growth by age,


Source: id, SAFi

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

Dif

fere

nce

by

age

Age group

Population by five year age group,



0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Po

pu

lati

on

Age group

2011 2021 2031

Age structure comparison

Selected countries and NSW, 2035

Source: id, SAFi; UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision: Medium Fertility Series

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

Pe

rso

ns

Age group

NSW

Australia

Canada

Japan

Regional and local changes

Population growth by typology area,


-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

An

nu

al g

row

th r

ate

Year ending June 30

Inner City Middle Suburbs Outer Suburbs Regional Coastal Regional Inland

Average annual population change

More gain than 2.5%1.0% to 2.5%0.3% to 1.0%-0.3% to 0.3%-0.3% to -1.0%More loss than -1.0%

Population growth by LGA,


Source: id, SAFi

Camden

Auburn

Murray

Shoalhaven

Yass Valley

Tamworth

Greater Taree

Tweed

Maitland

Dubbo

See Sydney Inset

Sydney

Botany Bay

Lane Cove

Brewarrina

Conargo

Source: id, SAFi

Population growth by LGA,


See Sydney Inset

Average annual population change

More gain than 2.5%1.0% to 2.5%0.3% to 1.0%-0.3% to 0.3%-0.3% to -1.0%More loss than -1.0%

Camden

Wollondilly

Auburn

Murray

Shoalhaven

Yass Valley

Tamworth

Greater Taree

Tweed

Coffs Harbour Pittwater

Maitland

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Po

pu

lati

on

Year as at June 30

Blacktown

The Hills Shire

Penrith

Wyong

Hornsby

Forecast Population growth, Selected Outer

Northern and Western LGAs, 1991-2041

Source: id, SAFi; ABS, Regional Population Growth

Historical Forecast

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Po

pu

lati

on

Year as at June 30

Camden

Liverpool

Sutherland Shire

Fairfield

Bankstown

Forecast Population growth, Selected Southern

and South-Western LGAs, 1991-2041


Historical Forecast

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Po

pu

lati

on

Year as at June 30

Sydney

Parramatta

Ryde

Canterbury

Auburn

Forecast Population growth, Selected Inner

and Middle Suburban LGAs, 1991-2041


Historical Forecast

The final word

Conclusions

There has been a transformation of New South Wales’ population prospects over the

last decade, driven by high rates of overseas migration and higher fertility

Population growth is now likely to be higher and more ‘youthful’ than previously

expected, but the challenge of ageing remains

Growth has continued in established parts of Sydney in the past 5 years and there

are vast numbers of sites in the pipeline

Growth is assumed to hold up in coastal areas in the future

Change is driven by economic factors as well as social components (higher birth

rates / more stable household size

Volatility means timely updates are critical

Placemaker

NSW population forecasts launch event: Return of the premier state?

Data & Analytics