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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

May 4, 2015Monthly Technical

Emergence of value area = buying time

The pullback in equities at the start of April 2015 fizzled out precisely near our earmarked resistance area of 29000, 8800 (Sensex, Nifty). The benchmarks reversed lower after making highs of 29094, 8844. In the ensuing correction, they have breached their March 2015 lows (27248/8269) to form a lower high lower low on monthly time frame for the first time in 12 months. The violation of higher high/low sequence on the monthly scale signals deceleration of upward momentum and paves the way for a round of consolidation in the coming month. What we expect

We believe the current decline will get arrested near the key medium term value area of 27000 - 26300, 8185-8000 levels in the coming month. As the selling momentum gets absorbed near the key value area we expect the benchmarks to undergo a basing formation which will lay the ground work for a pullback towards 28250, 8580 over the coming months Price wise correction approaching maturity

We believe the price wise correction is approaching maturity as the benchmarks have already corrected over 10% from recent life-time highs (30024, 9119) and are poised near the key medium term value area of 27000 - 26300, 8185-8000 levels, which is the confluence of following technical parameters:

The long term rising 52 week EMA is currently placed at 26760, 8048 levels. The index approaching its long term moving average after a span of over 14 months will trigger value buying

Price parity of the current down move from April 2015 high (29094) with the March 2015 decline (2776 points) is placed at 26318, 7994 levels

At around 27000, 8000 the entire correction from life-time high (30024,9119) will equal the magnitude of the last major declining segment of 2013 (20443-17448), which measured 2995 points

The monthly lows of December 2014 (26469, 7961) and January 2015 (26776, 8065) are placed in the vicinity of 8000 levels

Based on the aforementioned observations, we believe the benchmarks should hold the 27000-26300, 8185-8000 support in the current correction. Only a decisive breach of the 26300, 8000 support threshold would lead to a panic situation in markets and trigger a further decline towards 25500, 7700. We believe any such panic decline towards the 25500, 7700 region should be used as a buying opportunity. The current decline from life-time highs will equal the magnitude of the 2013 fall in percentage terms (15%) at around 25500, 7700. We do not expect the markets to sustain below these levels as value buying will outstrip supply and lead to a gradual recovery. Basing formation at value area to extend time wise correction

We believe the current selling momentum will get absorbed in the 27000-26300, 8200-8000 range as value buying near the important support region will outstrip supply and lead to a basing formation in the coming months. We expect markets to remain in a consolidation mode and undergo a base building process in the coming month while stock specific activity will dominate trade as the result season peters out.

a74

Indices Snapshot

% from 3-month 12-monthIndices 200 EMA % chg % chgSensex 27011 -0.5 -7.4 20.5CNX Nifty 8182 0.0 -7.1 22.2CNX Mid Cap 12690 5.6 -3.3 44.5CNX Small Cap 5462 4.8 -0.1 38.8CNX IT 11001 -2.6 -7.0 19.2Auto 18335 2.0 -8.3 37.1CNX Pharma 12058 9.5 3.1 48.9CNX FMCG 19511 -2.2 -7.8 11.0Banking 21031 5.7 -7.4 43.0Oil & Gas 9203 -7.7 -9.3 -3.6Metal 9801 -7.6 -3.8 -1.8Capital Goods 16519 4.5 -3.4 36.3Power 2095 0.0 -5.8 24.2Realty 1573 -6.1 -13.1 12.6PSU 7566 -3.3 -7.8 16.5* Closing Price of April 30, 2015

Close

Source: BSE India, NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research

* BSE has replaced IT, health care, FMCG, mid-cap and small cap indices with new ones. Due to lack of historical data, we have considered the CNX IT, pharma, FMCG, mid-cap and small cap indices for reference

Top picks for May 2015

• Reliance Industries

• Mahindra & Mahindra

• UltraTech Cement

• DCB Bank

* All stock recommendations have been initiated on i-click to gain prior to releasing of report. Research Analyst Dharmesh Shah [email protected] Nitin Kunte , CMT [email protected] Dipesh Dagha [email protected] Pabitro Mukherjee [email protected]

Vinayak Parmar [email protected]


Page 2

Seasonality factor favours bottom formation in second quarter

Historically, markets have tended to form important bottoms in the second quarter of every year. A look back into the market performance in the second quarter of every calendar year since 2000 reveals that the Sensex has formed a major bottom in May in seven out of 14 years. In two years (2009 and 2014) the index was already in an uptrend and the lows made in May in those years have not been breached till date. Therefore, seasonality factors also favour a major bottom formation in the second quarter. Post base formation, benchmarks to pull back towards 28250, 8580

The March 2015 correction was retraced by a tad more than 61.8% at the April 2015 high of 29094, 8844. After conclusion of the basing formation in the coming month, we expect the index to replicate this tendency and retrace up to 61.8% of the current down leg from April highs (29094 to 26879), which would open upsides towards 28250, 8580 in the coming months.

Momentum indicators approaching oversold zone

On the momentum oscillators front, the 14 period RSI on the daily chart has approached its oversold threshold of 30. Meanwhile, the weekly RSI is poised at a reading of 46. Historically, the bull market support for the weekly RSI is placed around 38-40 readings. Therefore, if the weekly RSI approaches its bull market support threshold in the coming months that would lead to a rebound on the price front as well.

BSE Sensex CMP- 27011

Exhibit 1: BSE Sensex – Weekly Candlestick Chart

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

We believe the price wise correction is approaching maturity as the index is poised near the key value area of 27000-26300. The index is expected to undergo a basing formation in the coming month before resolving higher towards 28250 being the 61.8% retracement of the current decline

The 14 week RSI is poised at a reading of 46. Historically, the bull market support for weekly RSI is placed at 38–40 readings. The oscillator approaching this zone will trigger a bullish reversal on price front

The 52 week EMA is placed at 26760 Price parity of April 2015 decline with the

March 2015 fall is placed at 26318 levels The entire decline from life highs will achieve

price equality with the 2013 correction at around 27000 levels

Monthly lows of January 2015 is placed in the at 26776 levels

61.8% @ 28250

Dec’14 26469

30024

Jan’15 26776

Sensex performance post bottom in 2nd Quarter

Year Sensex low in Q23M return

%6M return

%

2000 3832 6.7 3.7

2001 3097 -9.2 5.3

2002 3098 -3.4 9.0

2003 2904 53.3 101.1

2004 4228 32.1 56.2

2005 6141 40.6 53.0

2006 8799 41.5 56.7

2007 12426 39.2 63.3

2008 13406 -4.1 -28.0

2009 9546 79.4 83.0

2010 15960 25.7 28.5

2011 17314 -5.0 -10.7

2012 15749 19.1 23.4

2013 18144 6.8 16.7

2014 22198 20.0 23.9


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Bank Nifty (18490) – Outperformance to continue…

Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Generic Futures– Weekly Bar Chart


• The Bank Nifty displayed resilience in the face of plunging broader markets as it managed to protect the March 2015 bottom of 17710 and produced a rebound towards the end of the month. A pullback in private banking heavyweights post the quarterly earnings helped the index

• The monthly price action has resulted in a high

wave candle with negligible real body and large shadows in either direction, which highlights the volatility and overall indecisiveness at current levels. Holding above the last two month’s identical lows around 17700 will be crucial for the Bank Nifty to remain in the fray for a move back towards the April high of 19109 over the coming months

• Over the last four months, the broad trading

range for the Bank Nifty has been confined between 17600 and 20700. The monthly lows of December 2014, March and April 2015 are placed between 17600 and 17710, which highlights the presence of strong buying support at around the 17700 region. The key thing to watch in the coming month would be if the index manages to hold the lower band of last four months as that would uphold the overall positive price structure

• Only a decisive breach of the lower band of last

four months below 17700 would trigger further downsides towards 17000. We believe the index will not sustain below 17000. Any panic selling towards the same should be used as a buying opportunity from a medium-term perspective. We expect value buying to outstrip supply upon any drift towards the 17000 region, which can lead to a major bottom formation based on the confluence of following technical observations:

The rising 52 week EMA is currently placed at 17034

Monthly low of November 2014 is placed at 17029

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire up move from July 2014 low of 14405 to all-time high of 20934 is placed at 16910

• On the momentum oscillators front, the 14

week RSI is holding steady above the bullish reading of 50 highlighting the robust price structure. Historically, the bull market support for weekly RSI is placed near 40 reading above which the underlying bullish momentum will remain intact

Bank Nifty is poised at the lower band of last four months broad trading range of 17700 to 20700 levels. Holding 17700 will be crucial for the index to remain in fray for a move back towards the April high of 19109 levels over the coming months.

The 14 week RSI remains above its bull market support reading of 40 despite the recent correction highlighting the overall positive price structure

19109

20740

14405

52 week EMA 17034 November 2014 low 17029 61.8% @ 16910

17600 17710


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BSE sectoral merry-go-round

In this section, we focus on the relative performance of the BSE sectoral indices. The adjacent scatter chart highlights the relative performance of the BSE’s 11 major sectors relative to the Sensex with the y-axis plotting the relative price momentum over the past 12 months and the x-axis plotting the relative price. The chart is then subdivided into four quadrants.

Leadership quadrant: Top right is “Leadership” quadrant, which represents a sector that has strengthened in relative price and momentum vis-à-vis the Sensex.

Weakening quadrant: Bottom right is the “Weakening” quadrant where a sector’s relative price has started to deteriorate and momentum has started to slow.

Lagging quadrant: Bottom left is the “Lagging” quadrant where the sector’s relative price has become negative with momentum suggesting underperformance vis-à-vis the benchmark.

Improving quadrant: Top left is the “Improving” quadrant where a sector’s relative price trend has started to rise with momentum.

In summary, if a sector appears in the top right quadrant, it indicates the sector is trending higher and outperforming the benchmarks. If a sector appears on the bottom left it indicates it is trending lower. Sectors appearing on the bottom right indicate they are underperforming the benchmark while if they appear in the top left it suggests an improving price momentum.

Note: BSE has replaced IT, health care, FMCG, midcap and small cap indices with new ones. Due to lack of historical data, we have considered the NSE IT, pharma, FMCG, mid-cap and small cap indices for reference Exhibit 3: BSE sectoral indices relative performance


Sector rotation monitor

What each quadrant indicates

Sectors in the top right quadrant indicate strong trending sectors

• Beaten down metals and oil & gas play catch-up while major indices undergo profit booking: The BSE Metal and Oil & Gas indices emerged as strong outperformers on relative momentum and price terms in April 2015. The follow up action in oil & gas index after last month’s spurt in momentum along with a strong pick-up of momentum in the metal index implies that the prolonged period of consolidation in these beaten down sectors is approaching maturity. Both indices are on the verge of entering the improving quadrant, which makes these key sectors to watch in the coming months

• The leadership quadrant is still dominated by the defensives and capital goods space. The capital goods index has consolidated its position in the leading quadrant while FMCG and IT sectors have incurred deceleration in relative price and momentum suggesting profit booking after the recent outperformance

• Banking and auto indices continue to lose momentum in relative terms and have slipped further into the weakening quadrant implying that further consolidation is on the cards in these sectors

• The BSE realty index has lost significant

ground and reversed from the improving quadrant. It is on the verge of slipping back into the lagging quadrant. The BSE Power index is poised at the neutral line implying an in line performance


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Sectoral performance – Relative to benchmarks In order to closely gauge the underlying strength in the respective sectors vis-à-vis the benchmark, we analyse the Relative Strength Comparative (RSC) indicator. As the name suggests, it is a comparative measure of strength vis-à-vis a benchmark or a sector. While the RSC line is rising, the sector is outperforming the general market, i.e. it is either rising faster than the benchmark in an up trending market or going down less, in a down trending market or even rising. While the RSC line is falling, the sector is underperforming the broad equity market. If the market is going up, the sector is going up less or may be even going down. If the market is going down when the RSC line is falling, the sector is going down more than the market. A flat RSC line indicates in line market performance going up or down by the same magnitude. The purpose of this exercise is to identify those sectors that are outperforming and avoid the sectors that are underperforming.

BSE Auto Index The auto index has remained in a declining mode since beginning of 2015. In April, the index underperformed, both in absolute and relative terms. However, we expect buying support to outstrip supply in the vicinity of 18000 region and lead to base formation in the coming month.

Exhibit 4: BSE Auto Index – Weekly Bar Chart


Exhibit 5: BSE Auto Index vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison


Relative underperformance of index is reflected on RSC line. However, over the past six months RSC line is seen consolidating at higher levels and expected to resume higher over next few months.

Index remained in a corrective mode for most of April and now approached key support zone Confluence of December low of 17907 along with rising 52-week EMA and lower band of channel is expected to lend the support

BSE Auto Index and relative to Sensex

Price structure remains robust for auto index. We expect index to resolve higher after a basing

formation in the vicinity of 18000 levels

Relative Strength Comparative: Evaluating

the underlying strength

Weekly RSI approached its own support around reading of 45 and expected to support a gradual pull back in prices

52-week EMA

20386

RSC line continues to make higher high / low suggesting overall bullish bias for Auto

Key support marked by - 52-week EMA - December 2014 lows - Lower band of channel

17907


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NSE Pharma Index The pharma index scaled new life-time highs before surrendering gains amid broad based profit booking and the sector’s relative outperformance in earlier months. The index has retraced its preceding rally by 61.8%, which also coincides with the rising 21-week EMA. It is likely to enter into short-term consolidation as RSC line cools off towards its support

Exhibit 6: NSE Pharma Index Weekly Bar chart


Exhibit 7: NSE Pharma Index vs. Nifty – Relative Comparison


BSE Capital Goods Index The capital goods sector underperformed benchmarks during April 2015. However, the recent correction led prices to a value area marked by rising trend line and 34-week EMA, which is expected to attract buying support. On relative charts as well the index is poised near trendline support.

Exhibit 8: BSE Capital goods Index Weekly Bar chart


Exhibit 9: BSE Capital goods v Sensex – Relative Comparison


BSE Capital Goods Index and relative to Sensex

Post its April 2015 decline, the index is expected to enter a consolidation phase in short-term while

maintaining its rising peak and trough formation

Capital goods index is expected to resolve higher after a brief period of consolidation as overall price

structure remains bullish

The Pharma index is currently poised near 21-week EMA and 61.8% retracement of recent rally and likely to enter consolidation in the short term

The RSC line reacted lower reflecting recent profit booking. However, rising trough and peaks on RSC line exhibit out performance over medium term

In relative terms, the sector has underperformed benchmarks. However, over the medium-term, leadership is expected to pan out as long as the RSC line remains above rising trend line

The index has approached key support near 16000 mark being confluence of rising 34-weeek EMA and rising trend line connecting 2013 and 2014 lows

NSE Pharma Index and relative to Nifty

Weekly RSI has approached a key displacement at the reading of 50 which has historically acted as support

13836

21-week EMA

Weekly RSI line reacted lower after negative divergence in prior month. In the short term it suggests range bound action

18796

Jan’15 low @ 10525

61.8% @ 11225

14020

34-week EMA

Support @ 16000


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NSE FMCG Index The FMCG space remains in a consolidation mode as highlighted by the narrow ranged movement in relative terms. After the recent correction on the price front, we expect the FMCG index to consolidate in the range of 19000-21000 in the short-term.

Exhibit 10: NSE FMCG Index Weekly Bar Chart


Exhibit 11: NSE FMCG Index v Nifty – Relative Comparison


NSE IT Index The IT index remained a key underperformer during April 2015. The sharp decline has led the index towards its 52-week EMA, which coincides with October and December 2014 lows. We expect the index to undergo a basing formation above the key support in the short-term.

Exhibit 12: NSE IT Index Weekly Bar Chart


Exhibit 13: NSE IT Index v Nifty – Relative Comparison


FMCG sector index is expected to hold 61.8% retracement at 19200 and bounce back while in

the short term consolidation looms

IT index is expected to undergo consolidation after a sharp decline in April 2015 as prices approach key

support near 10690 levels

FMCG index was weighed down by underperformance of ITC and profit booking in recently run up stocks RSC line for index remains in sideways

trajectory suggesting overall range bound bias for index on relative terms

The RSC line is seen contracting amid lower high and higher lows suggesting consolidation over next few months

IT stocks took a severe hit after sharp profit booking amid weaker quarterly earning

NSE FMCG Index and relative to Nifty

Double bottom @ 10690

52-week EMA

Weekly RSI is seen approaching its own support near reading of 40-45 zone and expected to attract buying

12908

NSE IT Index and relative to Nifty

21-week EMA

Key support @ 10690

22716

17029

61.8% @ 19200


Page 8

BSE Oil & Gas Index The oil & gas space remained a relative outperformer during April as the index traded within the March high-low range. As it is placed at a crucial trend line support, connecting 2008 and 2013 lows, we expect the index to form basing pattern and eventually resolve higher in coming months.

Exhibit 14: BSE Oil & Gas Index Monthly Bar Chart


Exhibit 15: BSE Oil &Gas Index vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison


BSE Metal Index The Metal Index outperformed benchmarks for the first time in over six months. Placement of price at an important support and rebound on RSC from previous lows will lead to a shift in momentum on the positive side.

Exhibit 16: BSE Metal Index Weekly Bar Chart


Exhibit 17: BSE Metal Index v Sensex – Relative Comparison


Oil & Gas index is expected to form a basing pattern as it trades near long term trend support

and eventually resolve higher

As prices have approached key technical support, at 9300, we expect a pullback in the short-term

The index traded within March high-low range. Going forward, we expect the index to hold long term trend line support and resolve higher

In relative terms, the index remains in a downward trajectory. However, as RSC line has approached lower band of down trending channel a marginal pull back may not be ruled out. However, larger degree under performance may continue over medium term

The RSC line is seen rebounding from close to its previous trough which should see some out performance on relative terms in the coming months

The index is seen holding key Fibonacci retracement at 9300 over the past couple of months. We expect it to rally towards 12000 in the short-term being 50% retracement of fall

BSE Oil & Gas Index and relative to Sensex

BSE Metal Index and relative to Sensex

14102

6354

Monthly RSI continues to drag lower indicating lack of momentum

8598 61.8% @ 9313


Page 9

Stock Picks

Reliance Industries (RELIND) Buying Range: 862.00 - 874.00 Target: 990.00 Stop loss: 805.00

Exhibit 18: Reliance Industries – Weekly Bar Chart


Mahindra & Mahindra (MAHMAH) Buying Range: ` 1170.00 –1182.00 Target: ` 1345.00 Stop loss: ` 1100.00 Exhibit 19: Mahindra & Mahindra – Weekly Bar Chart


• The share price of M&M is poised at an attractive value area after a eight month corrective decline and provides a good entry opportunity from a medium-term perspective

• The overall price structure remains positive as depicted by rising peaks and troughs on long term price charts. The last major up move from | 847 to | 1433 took seven months. The stock has already taken over eight months to retrace just 50% of the preceding rally. The slow pace of retracement highlights the underlying strength in the trend and positive price structure

• Currently, the stock is poised a at major value area of | 1150-1180 being the confluence of the following technical parameters: a) The lower band of the rising channel in

originating since May 2013 is at | 1150 b) The rising 52 weeks EMA is currently placed

at ` 1195 levels c) The lower band of the previous consolidation

zone of June – July 2014

• We expect the current up move from support levels to extend towards | 1350 being the price parity with previous up move from | 1102 to | 1309 as projected from recent trough of | 1138, which also almost coincides with the high of January 2015 (| 1375). Therefore, it offers a good reward/risk set up to ride the uptrend

Recommendation has been initiated on i-click to gain at 09:51 on May 4, 2015

50% retracement @ 1140

The share price is seen taking support at the confluence of lower band of the rising channel and consolidation zone of June–July 2014 indicating a fresh entry opportunity to ride the next up move

Price parity with previous up move @ 1350

847

RSI is seen consolidating at a trend line support thus forming base for the nest up move in the stock

1433

668

The share price is expected to head towards | 1000 in the short term while | 800 is expected to act as a strong support for prices

61.8% @ 1005

1145

RSI is seen taking support at its own support zone near reading of 40-45

• The share price of Reliance Industries has shown early signs of revival as it is seen holding above its long term trend support for a second successive month (March and April 2015)

• While RIL remains in a larger consolidation pattern since 2008 peak, green shoots in demand to own the stock are clearly visible on the price chart as the stock has outperformed the benchmark in the past couple of weeks when Nifty remained on slippery ground

• The stock is poised at the long term rising trend line (| 790) connecting significant bottoms of 2008 and 2012, which coincide with consolidation low of August 2013-February 2014. A faster retracement of February-March 2015 decline (943-796) during April 2015 signals a shift in momentum on the bullish side

• Based on the above-mentioned parameters, we believe the stock price is placed at an attractive entry level. A pullback in prices towards | 1000 is imminent. The November 2014 high and 61.8% retracement of the June 2014 – April 2015 decline (1145-796) both coincide around | 1000 making it a key price target for an expected pullback

Recommendation has been initiated on i-click to gain at 10:59 on May 4, 2015

793

Two month decline retraced in faster time

462


Page 10

UltraTech Cement (ULTCEM) Buying Range: ` 2730.00 – 2750.00 Target: ` 3070.00 Stop loss: ` 2590.00

Exhibit 20: UltraTech Cement – Weekly Bar Chart


DCB Bank (DCB) Buying Range: ` 116.00 –119.70 Target: ` 141.00 Stop loss: ` 106.50 Exhibit 21: DCB Bank - Weekly Bar Chart


1402

The share price is seen taking support at the confluence of lower band of the rising channel and 52 weeks EMA indicating a fresh entry opportunity to ride the next up move 61.8% @ 3100

3398

RSI is seen taking support at its own trend line joining previous lows

• The share price of UltraTech is poised at an attractive value area after the recent corrective decline and provides a good entry opportunity from a medium-term perspective

• The overall price structure remains positive as depicted by rising peaks and troughs on weekly price charts

• The stock is currently poised near the key value area of | 2600-2650 being the confluence of the following technical parameters: d) The lower band of the rising channel

originating since May 2013 is at | 2640 e) The rising 52 weeks EMA is currently

placed at ` 2644 levels f) The 78.6% retracement of the previous

rally from 2419 to 3398 is also placed at 2630 levels

• We expect the stock to resolve higher after a basing formation near key support area and rally towards | 3100 being the 61.8% retracement of the entire decline from | 3398 to 2626 in the coming months

• Among oscillators, the weekly RSI is seen taking support at its rising trend line, thus supporting the overall bullish price set-up

Recommendation has been initiated on i-click to gain at 13:04 on April 29, 2015

161.8% retracement of recent decline @ 142

Weekly 14 periods RSI has recently generated a bullish crossover thus supports positive trend in price

127

High volume during channel breakout and price up move supports the positive trend in price

50% @ 101

• The share price of DCB Bank remains in a well established up trend forming rising peak and troughs on all time frames. The stock has displayed resilience during recent corrective phase in broader markets which highlights the inherent strength in the price structure

• The stock has recently registered a breakout above

the falling channel comprising the entire corrective decline since January 2015 signalling end of the four month corrective phase and resumption of the primary uptrend

• The corrective decline since January 2015 got anchored at the 50% retracement of October 2014 – January 2015 up move (| 75 to | 127) placed at | 101. This also coincided with the 34 week EMA (106) that has historically acted as strong support in the stock over last two years

• We expect the current up move off key retracement support to extend towards | 142 being the 161.8% retracement of the most recent decline from | 127 to | 101 levels

• The 14 week RSI has been sustaining above its bull market support of 50 reading over the last one year. The RSI has recently generated a buy signal above its nine periods average thus validates the strength in the price breakout

Recommendation has been initiated on i-click to gain at 11:59 on April 29, 2015

2419

The stock is in uptrend and has recently given a falling channel breakout signalling a reversal of corrective trend and a fresh entry opportunity to ride the next up move within the larger uptrend

75 34 Week EMA

52 Week EMA

2872


Page 11

Forthcoming Economic Events Calendar Date EventUS30-Apr Initial Jobless Claims

30-Apr Chicago Purchasing Manager

1-May Markit US Manufacturing PMI

1-May Construction Spending MoM

1-May ISM Manufacturing

4-May Factory Orders

5-May Markit US Composite PMI

5-May Markit US Services PMI

6-May MBA Mortgage Applications

6-May Nonfarm Productivity

7-May Initial Jobless Claims

8-May Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

8-May Unemployment Rate

11-May MBA Mortgage Foreclosures

12-May NFIB Small Business Optimism

13-May Retail Sales Advance MoM

13-May Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM

14-May Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing claims

15-May Industrial Production MoM

15-May Manufacturing (SIC) Production

19-May Housing Starts MoM

20-May U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from April 28-29 FOMC Meeting

21-May Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing claims

21-May Bloomberg Economic Expectations

22-May Markit US Manufacturing PMI

26-May Durable Goods Orders

26-May Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air

27-May MBA Mortgage Applications

27-May Markit US Composite/Services PMI

28-May Initial Jobless Claims/Continuous Claims

29-May GDP Annualized QoQ

29-May Personal Consumption

29-May Chicago Purchasing Manager

29-May U. of Mich. Sentiment/Current Conditions

India4-May HSBC India Manufacturing PMI

6-May HSBC India Services/Composite PMI

8-May Exports/Imports YoY

12-May Industrial Production/CPI YoY

14-May Wholesale Prices YoY

25-May Eight Infrastructure Industries

29-May GDP YoY

29-May GDP Annual Estimate YoY

Strategy Follow up – April 2015 Date Scrip Product Strategy RP Target SL Gain/Loss % Comment

24-Mar Mahindra & Mahindra Cash Buy 1183.00 1360.00 1095.00 8.00 Book profit at 127623-Mar Voltas Cash Buy 276.00 315.00 255.00 7.00 Book profit at 295.0023-Mar MCX Cash Buy 1170.00 1370.00 1080.00 -7.50 Stoploss triggered


Page 12

NOTES:

• It is recommended to enter in a staggered manner within the prescribed range provided in the report

• Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing basis.

• The recommendations are valid for three to six months and in case we intend to carry forward the

position, it will be communicated through separate mail. Trading Portfolio allocation

• It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products

• Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment

• Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation

• For example: The ‘Daily Calls’ product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to

allocate equal amount to each recommendation

Recommended product wise trading portfolio allocation

Allocations Return Objective Products Product wise

allocation Max allocation

in 1 stock Number of Calls

Frontline Stocks Mid-cap stocks Duration

Daily Calls 8% 2-3% 3-4 Stocks 0.50-1% 2-3% Intraday Short term Delivery 6% 3-5% 7-10 p.m 4-5% 7-10% Opportunity based Weekly Calls 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week Weekly Technical 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week Monthly Call 15% 5% 2-3 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month Monthly Technical 15% 2-4% 5-8 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month Techno Funda 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 6 Months Technical Breakout 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 3-6 Months Cash in Hand 10% - - - - -

100%


Page 13

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected] ICICIdirect.com Technical & Derivative Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 [email protected]


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Disclaimer ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

NSE / BSE Share & Stock Market Trading with iDirect (ICICI Direct) …content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_MonthlySect... · 2016-03-14 · Indices Snapshot % from 3-month 12-month

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