Nowcasting the household income distribution

Nowcasting the household income distribution

Δ Δ β Δ β ε

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10

Control for lags No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Change in/growth of:

Unemployment rate - - - - - - - - -

GDP + + + + + + + +

Wage rate + + + + + + + + +

Average tax wedge - - - - - - - - - -

Disbursement of government + + + + + + + +

Current transfers +

Net current household receipts -

Self-employment rate +

Share price +

Disposable income +

Disposable income growth rate for decile:

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10

mean abs. error model mean abs. growth rate mean abs. error RW

•

•

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10

mean abs. error model mean abs. growth rate mean abs. error RW

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

CAN

_w7

CAN

FRA

ITA

ITA_

w7

FIN

DNK

KOR

POL

AUT_

w7

SVN

SVN_

w7

POL_

w7

CZE

CZE_

w7

IRL_

w7

LUX

LUX_

w7

USA

PRT_

w7

PRT

SWE

ESP

GBR

EST_

w7

EST

IRL

BEL_

w7

DEU

SVK

SVK_

w7

mean abs. prediction error model mean abs. growth rate

mean abs. prediction error random walk