Novice Starter File 9-3-15

7/24/2019 Novice Starter File 9-3-15

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***Novice Starter File***

***AFF***..................................................................................................................3

***1AC***..................................................................................................................5

1AC - Middle East.......................................................................................................6

1AC - Solvency.........................................................................................................20

***2AC***................................................................................................................ 22

2AC AT: Politics....................................................................................................... 23

2AC AT: No SS !"act...........................................................................................262AC AT: No ME !"act............................................................................................ 2#

***NEG***................................................................................................................2$

***1NC***................................................................................................................ 31

1NC Politics %isad.....................................................................................................32

1NC AT: SS.............................................................................................................. 36

1NC AT: ME &a'........................................................................................................ 3#

***2NC/1NR***........................................................................................................3$

***2NC Politics***..................................................................................................(1

AT: PC %oesn)t E*ist..................................................................................................(2

AT: TPP Passa+e nevita,le....................................................................................... ((

AT: No !"act to P'otectionis!.................................................................................(5

***2NC Case***.......................................................................................................(#

2NC1N AT: SS.......................................................................................................(/

2NC1N AT: ME &a'.................................................................................................($
http://var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_4/HYPERLINK%23_Toc429066143http://var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_4/HYPERLINK%23_Toc429066143http://var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_4/HYPERLINK%23_Toc429066143


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***1AC***


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1AC - Middle East


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Advantage 1: Middle EastMiddle East instabilit is t!e !ig!est it"s ever been and t!eiri#$act de%ense is dated- &ba#a is c'rrentl s'ccess%'l at#aintaining a doctrine o% !ands-o( deterrence t!at is vital to

containing Middle East instabilit )nited States re-intervention into +ra, is t!e onl a to escalationGordon "1.Pili" o'don Senio' 4ello at te Concil on 7o'ei+n elations in&asin+ton %C. 7'o! 2013-15 e as S"ecial Assistant to te P'esident and &ite8ose Coo'dinato' 4o' te Middle East No't A4'ica and te l4 e+ion. As te !ostsenio' &ite 8ose o9cial 4ocsed on te +'eate' !iddle east is 'es"onsi,ilitiesinclded te 'anian nclea' "'o+'a! Middle East "eace ne+otiations te conictsin Sy'ia and 'a;


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$roble#Geven en decades o4 e*"e'ience incldin+ 'ecent e*"e'ience s++est

tat tis is not te case. Acce$ting t!at t!e nited States is not to bla#e %or5

and cannot resolve5 ever $roble# in t!e Middle East is not a $rescri$tion

%or inaction or resignation.Te i,ya and He!en no lon+e' e*ist and !aynot eve' ,e "t ,ac to+ete' a+ain. Tis "a'ticla' t'end is ca"t'ed ell in an only sli+tly e*a++e'ated 'ecent eadline in Tenion: ?Eve'yone in Middle East iven n Cont'y in 31#000000-state soltion.@ &e)'e not te'e yet. Lt as !c as e can andsold t'y to avoid it it)s no !o'e liely tat ote' states ill colla"se tan it is tat te no-,'oen states ill ,e "t ,acto+ete' a+ain. Te Snni-Sia s"lit. Te Snni-Sia s"lit is a'dly a ne t'endGit)s ,een +oin+ on since te #t cent'y en teP'o"et Moa!!ad)s 4olloe's 4ailed to a+'ee on is 'i+t4l sccesso'. No' it is necessa'ily o'se tan eve'Gte tensions todaystill 4all so't o4 "e'iods lie te late 1/t cent'y en &aa,i t'i,es 4'o! te A'a,ian Peninsla e'e sacin+ Sia cities liee',ala and NaJa4 in today)s 'a;. Lt te'e is no ;estion tat tis isto'ic "eno!enon tat as 'isen and 4allen in intensity ove'te yea's as ente'ed a ne and "a'ticla'ly dan+e'os "ase. Te latest escalation sta'ted it te 1$#$ 'evoltion in 'an and tes,se;ent 'an-'a; a' ,t it as +iven its 'eal nea'-te'! e!"asis ,y te 2003 'a; a' ic "t te !aJo'ity Sia ,ac inca'+e in La+dad and ts ti""ed te secta'ian ,alance in te 'e+ion. 'onically tis as one o4 te 4e !aJo' t'ends e did avea !aJo' 'ole in "'odcin+.F Ly doin+ so it ,ot s"''ed and alloed te develo"!ent o4 e*t'e!ist Snni +'o"s lie al-Qaeda in 'a;and its sccesso' S> ose attacs on Sia only 'ein4o'ce tis lite'ally vicios ci'cle. Te A'a, S"'in+ in 2011 and te colla"se instate ato'ity it "'odced 4'te' e*ace',ated secta'ianis!: As insec'ity 'ose in te "ost-ato'ita'ian caos "eo"le ave+'avitated to tei' inG"'odcin+ te o''i,le secta'ian violence e no see in Sy'ia 'a; and He!en. Te +'oin+ Snni-Sia

divideGand te +'oin+ Snni 4ea' o4 Sia 'anGis s!!ed " ,y te na''ative ea'd ,y any t'avele' to "a'ts o4 te Snni o'ldtat 'an and te Sia no cont'ol ?4o' A'a, ca"itals@GLa+dad %a!ascs Lei't and Sana)aGand a'e looin+ to cont'ol !o'e.

Te na''ative is e*a++e'ated Te Snnis ave not called te sots in %a!ascs and Lei't 4o' a lon+ ti!eF ,t 'eects a +enine4ea' o4 'anian SiaF e+e!ony tat te Snnis a'e dete'!ined to 'esistGas e see in te Snni coalitions no at a' di'ectly o'indi'ectly in Sy'ia 'a; and He!en. Te Sadi-led inte'vention in He!enGs""o'ted ,y all te Snni states in te 'e+ionGis ,estseen not as a "lan to ,'in+ "eace to He!en ,t si!"ly to "t don a !a'e' to 'an. Te Snni o'ld ill not tole'ate 4'te' Siaenc'oac!ent in te 'e+ion. Te Snni-Snni S"lit. Most o4 te 4ocs in te 'e+ion as nde'standa,ly ,een on te 'eal divide,eteen Snni and Sia ,t te Snni-Snni s"lit !ay ,e Jst as i!"o'tant. Al Qaeda a4te' all and no S> a'e Snni +'o"s ota'+et te Snni 'e+i!es tey ,elieve a'e ,eolden to te &est and not t'e to sla!. Te Snni 'e+i!es a'e ts K+tin+ ,acincldin+ ,y ,o!,in+ S> in Sy'ia and >i,ya. n Snni cont'ies tat do not ave la'+e Sia "o"lations sc as E+y"t and =o'danit)s not te ?Sia t'eat@ ,t te Snni-Snni s"lit tat as leade's and "o"lations o''ied. An even !o'e si+niKcant Snni-Snnis"lit is a +'oin+ ideolo+ical ,attle ,eteen te 'e+ion)s Snni 'e+i!es and te Snni ve'sion o4 "olitical sla!. Te al-Sisi 'e+i!e inE+y"t 4o' e*a!"le ,aced ,y Sadi A'a,ia and te


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Gone it is dete'!ined to c's at all costs. te' Snni states oeve'GT'ey and Qata'Ga'e sy!"atetic to te L'ote'oodand ts enti'ely at odds it tei' Snni ,'et'en in iyad and A, %a,i. Tey o""osed Sisi)s taeove' in E+y"t a taeove'

T'ey still 'e4ses to 'eco+nieF and s""o't 'ival sla!ist +'o"s in >i,ya and Tnisia tat te Sadis and E!i'atis see asadve'sa'ies. Te 'esltin+ sets o4 alliances ac'oss te 'e+ion is ts +ely co!"licated ,t i4 yo)'e 4olloin+ tis at o!e: n"laces divided a!on+ Snni and Sia lie Sy'ia 'a; o' He!enF te Snni states incldin+ T'ey and Qata'F all line " in acoalition a+ainst te Sia. Lt e'e te'e a'e no o' 4e Sia lie in E+y"t o' >i,ya te Snni a'!ony ,'eas don and teSnnis a'e dee"ly divided a!on+st te!selves. Lecase o4 tis Qata' and T'ey a'e K+tin+ a so't o4 cold a' it Sadi A'a,iaLa'ain and te 'ises .Teseinc'easin+ly vocal c'itics a'+e tat


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a costly disaste'. n >i,ya te


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A Middle East N'clear @oloca'st Nclea' ea"ons a'e no lon+e' 'est'ained ,yte Cold &a' MA% doct'ine. &asin+ton as 'eleased te! into "'e-e!"tive K'stst'ie 4o'!. Te ta'+ets o4 tese "'e-e!"tive st'iesssia and Cinano it ,ecase &asin+ton "'odly "'oclai!s itsi!!o'ality in ",lic doc!ents desc'i,in+ its a' doct'ine. Te 'eslt is to !a*i!ie te cance o4 nclea' a'. 4 yo e'e ssiaand Cina and yo ne tat &asin+ton ad a a' doct'ine tat "e'!its a s'"'ise nclea' attac old yo sit te'e aitin+ile &asin+ton c'ans " its anti-ssian and anti-Cinese "'o"a+anda !acine de!oniin+ ,ot cont'ies as a t'eat to?4'eedo! and de!oc'acy@ Te 4ools in &asin+ton a'e "layin+ it nclea' K'e. Noa! Co!sy "oints ot tat in a less dan+e'os

ti!e tan c''ently e*ists e ca!e ve'y close to nclea' a'.tt"s:"iloso"yno.o'+isses10#Noa!DCo!syDonDnstittionalDSt"idity 8a'old Pinte' one o4 te last &este'n intellectsnde'stood te dan+e' in &este'n a''o+ance. 8e denonced te &est)s c'i!es and called 4o' te c'i!es to ,e s,Ject to esta,lisedla ,e4o'e it is too late 4o' !anity. ?&e ave ,'o+t to't'e clste' ,o!,s de"leted 'ani! inn!e'a,le acts o4 'ando!!'de' !ise'y de+'adation and deat to te 'a;i "eo"le and call it ,'in+in+ 4'eedo! and de!oc'acy to te Middle East). 8o!any "eo"le do yo ave to ill ,e4o'e yo ;ali4y to ,e desc'i,ed as a !ass !'de'e' and a a' c'i!inal ne nd'ed tosandMo'e tan eno+ old ave to+t. Te'e4o'e it is Jst tat Ls and Llai' ,e a''ai+ned ,e4o'e te nte'national C'i!inal Co'to4 =stice.@8a'old Pinte' 2005 No,el P'ie Acce"tance S"eec. ?An 'a;i 8olocast@ ,y ideon Polyatt":.conte'c''ents.o'+"olya230315.t! and ?enocide n 'a;@ tt":.conte'c''ents.o'+"olya150315.t! "'ovidea,ndant evidence 4o' convictin+ Ls and Llai'. %'. ideon Polya is a "'o4esso' o4 science in one o4 Ast'alia)s leadin+ nive'sities.8e as a !o'al conscience so!etin+ inc'easin+ly 'a'e in te &este'n o'ld. 8is a'ticles a'e ,ased la'+ely on te Jst ",lised ,yCla'ity P'ess to vol!e eavily doc!ented enocide in 'a; ,y A,dl-8a; Al-Ani and Ta'i Al-Ani. A,dl-8a; Al-Ani is a L'itis-edcated laye' it a P.%. in nte'national >a and a P.%. in elect'onics en+inee'in+. Ta'i Al-Ani is an a'citect t'anslato' and'esea'ce'. C''ently a! 'eadin+ te to-vol!e o' and intended to 'evie it . Lt P'o4esso' Polya)s a'ticles s9ce as an

int'odction to enocide in 'a;. &asin+ton as co!!itted a te''i,le c'i!e in o' na!e. &asin+ton not only!'de'ed 'a; &asin+ton as !'de'ed te Middle East. &asin+ton and its

des"ica,le vassals@te Coalition o4 te &illin+@a'e 'es"onsi,le 4o' a Middle East8olocast. 7o' "eo"le in te An+lo-A!e'ican o'ld o ave a !o'al consciencete 4acts a'e sol-'encin+. Te "o"lations o4 te cont'ies ose +ove'n!entsco!"'ised ?te Coalition o4 te &illin+@ a'e conta!inated it a' c'i!esco!!itted ,y tei' +ove'n!ents in te 'a; enocide. A "'o+'essive !ode'n stateas o,lite'ated and 2.# !illion 'a;i "eo"le e'e !'de'ed. Te c'i!e as cove'ed " it"'o"a+anda tat de!onied Sadda! 8ssein and c'eated 4ea' o4 none*istent ea"ons o4 !ass dest'ction. Te 'a;i +enocide as,ased on a lie and ,ot Ls and Llai' ne it. Te to satanic leade's si!"ly decided to dest'oy a "eo"le o tey K'stde!onied and !a'+inalied. Ceney and te neocons contine to Jsti4y te +enocide and te ille+al to't'e 'e+i!e tat teyc'eated in o'de' to "'odce 4ae ?te''o'ists@ as a JstiKcation 4o' tei' a' c'i!es. Te &este'n !edia es"ecially te Ne Ho'

Ti!es is also co!"licit in te 'a;i enocide as a'e te insociant &este'n "eo"les te!selves o stood ,y cee'in+ ile !illionso4 "eo"le e'e dest'oyed on te ,asis o4 a ,latant and t'ans"a'ent lie. &at does te &est 'e"'esent 'eed >ies &a' To't'e&a' C'i!es SelKsness ntole'ance %est'ction o4 li4e on ea't Te ?C'istian@ &est is a !aste' at "'o"a+anda and sel4-dece"tion. >oo at te evan+elical c'ces. Tey s""o't a c'i!inal in!ane 'e+i!e ile "'o4essin+ to ,e 4olloe's o4 C'ist.>oo at A!e'ican ?conse'vatives.@ Tey s""o't te !ilita'ied "olice state. Tey s""o't te 'otine "olice !'de's o4 da'-

sinned A!e'ican citiens. Tey s""o't eve'y a' &asin+ton d'ea!s " and even !o'e. ndeed te'e a'e not eno+ a's 4o'te satis4action o4 Con+'essional e",licans o no ant a' it ssia and it 'an. >oo at te e",licans in Con+'ess andin state +ove'n!ents. Tey ate te envi'on!ent. Tey love "ollte's. Tey o'si" s'ael and s'ael)s dest'ction o4 tePalestinians and te on+oin+ te4t o4 te Palestinians) cont'y a 60-yea' old activity. =st loo at te !a" o4 s'inin+ Palestine.Mo'e is stolen eac day. &asin+ton as s""o'ted tis te4t o4 an enti'e cont'y. Het &asin+ton is a,le to !as;e'ade as a +'eatde4ende' o4 !an 'i+ts. &ose 'i+ts &asin+ton)s and s'ael)s. No one else)s 'i+ts cont. 8o does te o'ld s'vive teA!e'ican-s'aeli a++'ession P'o,a,ly it ill not. Te evil is no di'ected at 'an ssia and Cina. Tese cont'ies cannot ,e

,o!,ed yea' a4te' yea' a4te' yea' it no conse;ences to te ,o!,e's. 'an is li!ited in its dest'ctivea,ility. Lt 'an cold dest'oy Sadi A'a,ia and s'ael. ssia and Cina can dest'oyte


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A!e'ican !id-est ic osts te CLM silos ill ,eco!e nina,ita,le e*ce"t,y coc'oaces. A!e'icans and te "o"lations o4 te A!e'ican """et states des"e'ately need to nde'stand tat&asin+ton is inca"a,le o4 s"eain+ te t't a,ot anytin+. &asin+ton is an evil 4o'ce. &asin+ton is Sa'on. &asin+ton is

Satan. >oo at 'a;. >oo at A4+anistan. >oo at >i,ya. >oo at Sy'ia. >oo at So!alia.>oo at


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ot in is


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ast !ont e ato'ied 'o+ly do,lin+ te n!,e' o4 t'oo"s o ill ,e in non-co!,at 'oles to3100 ,t is een not to let te t'oo" co!!it!ent +'o too !c. Te'e a'e no a,ot 1#50


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e*can+e. Se cannot 'eJect te 'evealed "'ie and t'y a+ain alto+ i4 se +ets a t'ly o''i,le "'ie a ?on@ se can e*can+eit 4o' V100 a4te' te so is ove'. 7o'ei+n "olicy !ae's and acto's also ave 'eso'ces to t'ade o' s"end. Te doo's tey con4'ontave la,elsG?'esce ait@ ?invade 'a;.@ &at is nnon is te otco!e o4 te co'se o4 action lyin+ ,eind te cosen doo'.


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consi+ned to tei' "'e-aaenin+ stats ;o o4 a,se and isolation ,eind doo'n!,e' to !e see#s to be crac0ing o$en door n'#ber t!ree and anot!erS atte#$t to !alt t!e #arc! o% +S+S4and al-Iaeda4across +ra, Lt as ayon+e' ,a!a cold ave "'edicted5 it is not going to or0. n te a,sence o4 Ma'inesandin+ ot !ontly sala'ies to Snni 'a;is and itot te nely sel4-decla'ed cali" o4 S A, La' al-La+dadi tain+ oI 4o'

'eli+ios inst'ction in Sadi A'a,ia t!e best &ba#a #ig!t nd be!ind t!e doors %acing

!i# no o'ld be an e(ective $ro-Mali0i '$rising b t!e S!i"a in 8ag!dadand s'ccesses on t!e gro'nd $'s!ing +S o't o% its c'rrent bridge!eadselse!ere in +ra, ndeed tis is a doo' e does not even ave to o"en . Co!"a'ed tote inade;acy o4 Ls)s 30000 !ilita'y 4o'ces in 200# ,a!a)s tiny co!!it!ent o4 300 S"ecial 7o'ces is noe'e nea' eno+ tot'ain and e;i" an a'!y o' even ,e+in to end te co''"tion tat as olloed ot 'a;i "olitical and !ilita'y 4o'ces al'eady sonto ,e i!"e'vios to yea's o4 eIo'ts ,y nd'eds o4 tosands o4 i,e'ty Te nde"endent nstitte ?T'!oil in te Middle East See!s Constant and


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a9liate o4 te !ain +'o" as taen advanta+e o4 te ana'cy in He!en to e*"andits te''ito'y. Te A!e'ican !edia 'e"o't on all o4 tis t'!oil it +'eat y"e as i4 !ost o4 tese 4a'aayconicts i!"in+e +'eatly on


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6!e $lan is reverse ca'sal at creating stabilit-

Red'cing #ilitar $resence in +ra, sends a signal t!at t!enited States is not going to re-invade !ic! is s'Lcient andnecessar to o$en '$ s$ace %or indigeno's #ove#ents to

resolve instabilit- +S+S t!rives o( o% S ar?a7are "1.Sa'a >aa'e is a staI 'ite' 4o' Co!!on %'ea!s and aninde"endent Jo'nalist ose o' as ,een 4eat'ed in Te Nation Al =aee'a

To!%is"atc HesX Ma+aine 7o'ei+n Policy in 7ocs ?8o to et Se'ios A,otEndin+ te SS &a'@ tt":4"i4.o'++et-se'ios-endin+-isis-a' 7e,'a'y ( 2015F

A lon+-te'! alte'native to a' can only ,e ,ilt ,y "o"la' !ove!ents in 'a; andSy'ia. Tese !ove!ents still !atte' and tey dese've o' solida'ity G not o',o!,s. Te e*"andin+


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?!ission acco!"lised@ s"in A4+anistan is sIe'in+ a s"ie in civilian deatsdis"lace!ent "ove'ty and sta'vation it 201( "'ovin+ an es"ecially deadly yea'4o' A4+an non-co!,atants. Te Tali,an 4'te'!o'e a""ea's to ,e +'oin+ inst'en+t as te


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tragic e3a#$les o% t!e vast di(erence beteen 0illing a lot o% $eo$le andinning a ar &ver ve #ont!s in5 S #ilitar o$erations in +ra, andSria are neit!er alleviating t!e !'#anitarian crisis nor #eeting an o%

t!e s!i%ting goals o% S oLcialscontainin+ SS dest'oyin+ te! etc.F. 6!e $erce$tion

t!at +S+S is $ri#aril at ar it! t!e nited States is5 in %act5 critical to

t!eir grot!Te CA esti!ated in Se"te!,e' GK'st a #ont! a%ter S-ledbo#bings began 4 t!at +S+S !ad tri$led its ran0s5 %ro# 1>5>>> to over>5>>>. As Pat'ic Coc,'n 'e"o'ted in ea'ly =ana'y ?Te te''ito'ies YSSZ con;e'ed in a se'ies o4li+tnin+ ca!"ai+ns last s!!e' 'e!ain al!ost enti'ely nde' its cont'ol evento+ it as lost so!e tons to te 'ds and Sia !ilitias in 'ecent ees.@ Soile te e*"ansion o4 SS) 4'ontie's !ay ave sloed te inte'vention as 4ailed

to "'event te +'o" 4'o! consolidatin+ its cont'ol in 'a; and Sy'ia . E3tre#is#

t!rives d'ring %oreign interventions and #ilitar actions5 said Raed arrar

o% t!e A#erican Friends Service Co##ittee in an intervie %or t!is article .

?Lo!,in+ diIe'ent +'o"s o live in te sa!e a'eas as SS as el"ed nite SSit !o'e !ode'ate +'o"s !o'e 'easona,le +'o"s o cold ave ,een

"e'saded to 'eJoin te "olitical "'ocess. n Sy'ia ,o!,in+ SS and ote' e*t'e!ist+'o"s incldin+ al-Qaeda as el"ed te! nite alto+ tey ave ,een illin+eac ote' 4o' te "ast to yea's.@ n addition to te c'i!es "e'"et'ated ,y SS


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!ilita'y coalition is doin+ o lon+ tis a' ill last e'e its ,onda'ies lie and at ?victo'y@ !eans. ,a!a and e''y ave,ot indicated tat te a' on SS ill tae yea's ,t Penta+on o9cials 'e"eatedly 'e4se to 'eveal ,asic in4o'!ation lie ats"eciKc dties t'oo"s on te +'ond in 'a; a'e tased it and o is dyin+ nde'


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ene!y s'ael. 7'o! tat "oint it does not 'e;i'e too!c i!a+ination to "'oJectat ill ,e te eIect o4 o'ld and 'e+ional+ove'n!ents ali+nin+ te!selves it one sideo' te ote'. &o'ld &a' 3 sta'tin+ in te Middle East as an indi'ect 'eslt o4 teactions o4 SS is not sc a 4anci4l "'ediction X


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1AC - Solvenc

Plan: 6!e nited States %ederal govern#ent s!o'ldsignicantl red'ce PMCs %ro# +ra, and establis! a license andregistration regi#e concerning $rivate #ilitar contractco#$anies in +ra,

6!at solves- red'ces t!e n'#ber o% corr'$t and ine(ectivecontractors- %'nding sends a strong signal o% acco'ntabilit-o'trig!t banning co#$anies ca'ses t!e# to go 'ndergro'ndand $rivate re%or#s lac0 teet!McFate "1.Sean Mc7ate Senio' 4ello at te Atlantic Concil and ato' o4?Te Mode'n Me'cena'y: P'ivate A'!ies and &at Tey Mean 4o' &o'ld 'de'.@NHT ?einin+ n Soldie's o4 7o'tne@tt":.nyti!es.co!20150(1/o"inion'einin+-in-soldie's-o4-4o'tne.t!l

D'\0 A"'il 1# 2015F

A!e'ica t'ned to te "'ivate secto' 4o' "e'sonnel tat its all-volntee' !ilita'ycold not !ste'. n 'a; al4 o4 te "e'sonnel in a' ones e'e cont'acted and inA4+anistan it as close' to #0 "e'cent. A!e'ica !ay K+t 4t'e a's !ainly itcont'acto's. No ote's a'e 4olloin+ A!e'ica)s lead. Nigeria !ired !'ndreds o%#ercenaries to g!t 8o0o @ara#. R'ssia is alle+edly 'sing t!e# in 0raine.And oil co#$anies and !anita'ian o'+aniations are t'rning to $rivate#ilitar co#$anies to "'otect tei' o'e's and "'o"e'ty in dan+e'os "laces

and te'e is an a'+!ent tat te


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establis! a licensing and registration regi#e t!at all ind'str #e#bers

#'st observe in order to be eligible %or contracts Tis old inclde clear

standards %or training and vetting #e#bers and trans$arent #ec!anis#s

%or oversig!t and acco'ntabilit Mlti,illion dolla' indst'ies don)t Jsteva"o'ate and otlain+ "'ivate sec'ity 4o'ces on)t o'. elyin+ on te !a'et

is te ,est ay to avoid a 'et'n to te !edieval caos o4 a'!ies 4o' i'e.


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***2AC***


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2AC ) A6: Politics

;--< Political ca$ital doesn"t e3istMicael @irsc!5 2>1 cie4 co''es"ondent 4o' National =o'nal. 8e also cont'i,tes to 2012%ecoded. 8i's "'eviosly se'ved as te senio' edito' and national econo!ics co''es"ondent 4o'Nesee ,ased in its &asin+ton ,'ea. 8e as also Nesee)s &asin+ton e, edito' andato'ed a eely col!n 4o' Nesee.co! ?Te &o'ld 4'o! &asin+ton.@ Ea'lie' on e asNesee)s 4o'ei+n edito' +idin+ its aa'd-innin+ cove'a+e o4 te Se"te!,e' 11 attacs and tea' on te''o'. 8e as done on-te-+'ond 'e"o'tin+ in 'a; A4+anistan and ote' "laces a'ond teo'ld and se'ved as te Toyo-,ased Asia L'ea Cie4 4o' nstittional nvesto' 4'o! 1$$2 to 1$$(.tt":.nationalJo'nal.co!!a+ainete'e-s-no-sc-tin+-as-"olitical-ca"ital-2013020#

n Tesday in is State o4 te aPie''e o4 te National ie Association !a'+inalied i!sel4 it "oo'ly cosen co!!ents soon a4te' te !assac'e. Te "'o-+n lo,,y once a "alan* o4o""osition ,e+an to Kss'e into 'easona,les and c'aies. 7o'!e' e". a,'ielle iIo'ds %-A'i. o as sot in te ead to yea's a+o and is still st'++lin+ to s"ea and al sta'ted a PAC it e' s,and to a""eal to te!ode'ate !iddle o4 +n one's. Ten se +ave 'ivetin+ and "oi+nant testi!ony to te Senate callen+in+ la!ae's: ?Le ,old.@ As a 'eslt !o!ent! as a""ea'ed to ,ild a'ond so!e ind o4 a "lan to c'tail sales o4 te !ostdan+e'os ea"ons and a!!nition and te ay "eo"le a'e "e'!itted to ,y te!. t)s i!"ossi,le to say no ete' sc a ,ill ill "ass and i4 it does ete' it ill !ae anytin+ !o'e tan cos!etic can+es to +n las. Lt

one tin+ is clea': Te "olitical tectonics ave si4ted d'a!atically in ve'y little ti!e. &ole ne "ossi,ilities e*ist no tat didn)t a 4e ees a+o. Meanile te e",lican !e!,e's o4 te Senate)s so-calledan+ o4 Ei+t a'e "sin+ a'd 4o' a ne s"i'it o4 co!"'o!ise on i!!i+'ation'e4o'! a sa'" can+e a4te' an election yea' i n ic te P standa'd-,ea'e' decla'ed e old !ae li4e so !ise'a,le 4o' te 11!illion ille+al i!!i+'ants in te oisiana tat itotsc a si4t te "a'ty !ay ,e 4acin+ de!o+'a"ic deat in a cont'y e'e te 2010 censs soed 4o' te K'st ti!e tat ite ,i'ts ave 4allen into te !ino'ity. t)s +ot notin+ to do it ,a!a)s "olitical ca"ital o' indeed,a!a at all. Te "oint is not tat ?"olitical ca"ital@ is a !eanin+less te'!. 4ten it is a synony! 4o' ?!andate@ o' ?!o!ent!@ in te a4te'!at o4 a decisive electionGand Jst a,ot eve'y "oliticia n eve' elected as t'ied to c lai!!o'e o4 a !andate tan e actally as. Ce'tainly ,a!a can say tat ,ecase e as elected and o!ney asn)t e as a ,ette' clai! on te cont'y)s !ood and di'ection. Many "ndits still de4end "olitical ca"ital as a se4l!eta"o' at least. ?t)s an n;antiKa,le ,t !eanin+4l conce"t@ says No'!an 'nstein o4 te A!e'ican Ente'"'ise nstitte. ?Ho can)t 'eally loo at a "'esident and say e)s +ot 3# onces o4 "olitical ca"ital. Lt te 4act is it)s a

conce"t tat !atte's i4 yo ave "o"la'ity and so!e !o!ent! on yo' side.@ Te 'eal "'o,le! is tat te idea o4 "olitical ca"italGo' !andates o' !o!ent!Gis so"oo'ly deKned tat "'esidents and "ndits o4ten +et it 'on+ .?P'esidents sally ove'-esti!ate it@ says eo'+e Eda'ds a"'esidential scola' at Te*as AWM


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say tat "olitical ca"ital is at ,est an e!"ty conce"t and tat al!ost notin+ in teacade!ic lite'at'e sccess4lly ;antiKes o' even deKnes it. ?t can 'e4e' to a ve'y a,st'act tin+ lie a "'esident)s"o"la'ity ,t te'e)s no !ecanis! te'e. Tat !aes it ind o4 seless@ says ica'd Lensel a +ove'n!ent "'o4esso' at Co'nell > T8E&AH &T8 >L=]So!eti!es a cleve' "'actitione' o4 "oe ' can +et !o'e done Jst ,ecase e)s a++'essive and nos te allays o4 Con+'ess ell. Te*as AWM)s Eda'ds is 'i+t to say tat te otco!e o4 te 1$6( election >yndon

=onson)s landslide victo'y ove' La''y oldate' as one o4 te 4e tat conveyed a !andate. Lt one o4 te !ain 'easons 4o' tat !andate in addition to oldate')s ine"titde as a candidateF as P'esident =onson)s !aste'4lse o4 "oe' leadin+ " to tat e lection and is a,ility to +et 4a' !o'e done tan anyone to+t "ossi,le +iven is li!ited "olitical ca"ital. n te neest vol!e in is e*astive stdy o4 >L= Te Passa+e o4 Poe' isto'iano,e't Ca'o 'ecalls =onson +ettin+ cationa'y advice a4te' e ass!ed te "'esidency 4'o! te assassinated =on 7. ennedy in late 1$63. %on)t 4ocs on a lon+-stalled civil-'i+ts ,ill advise's told i! ,ecase it !i+t Jeo"a'dieSote'n la!ae's) s""o't 4o' a ta* ct and a""'o"'iations ,ills te "'esident needed. ?ne o4 te ise "'actical "eo"le a 'ond te ta,le Ysaid tatZ te "'esidency as only a ce'tain a!ont o4 coina+e to e*"end and yoo+tn)t to e*"end it on tis@ Ca'o 'ites. Coina+e o4 co'se as at "olitical ca"ital as called in tose days.F =onson 'e"lied ?&ell at te ell)s te "'esidency 4o'@ =onson didn)t o''y a,ot coina+e and e +ot te Civili+ts Act enacted alon+ it !c else: Medica'e a ta* ct a nti"ove'ty "'o+'a!s. 8e a""ea'ed to nde'stand not Jst te ays o4 Con+'ess ,t also te ay to !a*i!ie te !o!ent! e "ossessed in te lin+e'in+ !ood o4national +'ie4 and dete'!ination ,y "icin+ te 'i+t isses as Ca'o 'eco'ds. ?Mo!ent! is not a !yste'ios !ist'ess@ >L= said. ?t is a cont'olla,le 4act o4 "olitical li4e.@ =onson ad te sill and e'eital to 'ealie tat at tat!o!ent o4 isto'y e cold ave nli!ited coina+e i4 e andled te "olitics 'i+t. 8e did. At least ntil ietna! tat is.F And ten te'e a'e te "'esidents o +et te "olitics and te isses 'on+. t as te last "'esident,e4o'e ,a!a o as Jst sta'tin+ a second te'! eo'+e &. Ls o 'eally 'evived te clai! o4 "olitical ca"ital ic e as ve'y 4ond o4 ieldin+. Ten Ls "'o!"tly de!onst'ated tat e didn)t 4lly nde'stand te conce"teite'. At is K'st nes con4e'ence a4te' is 200( victo'y a conKdent-sondin+ Ls decla'ed ? ea'ned ca"ital in te ca!"ai+n "olitical ca"ital and no intend to s"end it. Tat)s !y style.@ Te (3'd "'esident t'e all o4 is"olitical ca"ital at an ove''idin+ "assion: te "a'tial "'ivatiation o4 Social Sec'ity. 8e !onted a 4ll-,o'e ",lic-'elations ca!"ai+n tat inclded ton-all !eetin+s ac'oss te cont'y. Ls 4ailed tte'ly o4 co'se. Lt te "'o,le!as not tat e didn)t ave eno+ "olitical ca"ital. Hes e !ay ave ove'esti!ated is standin+. Ls)s !a'+in ove' =on e''y as tinGel"ed alon+ ,y a ,!,lin+ e''y ca!"ai+n tat as al!ost te !i''o' i!a+e o4 o!ney)s+aIe-Klled 4ail'e tis ti!eG,t tat as not te 'eal !istae. Te "'o,le! as tat ateve' c'edi,ility o' stat'e Ls to+t e ad ea'ned as a nely 'eelected "'esident did notin+ to !ae Social Sec'ity "'ivatiation a,ette' idea in !ost "eo"le)s eyes. ote's didn)t t'st te "lan and 4o' yea's late' at te end o4 Ls)s te'! te stoc-!a'et colla"se ,o'e ot te ",lic)s se"ticis!. P'ivatiation Jst didn)t ave any !o!ent! ,eind it no!atte' o as "sin+ it o' o !c ca"ital Ls s"ent to sell it. Te !istae tat Ls !ade it Social Sec'ity says =on Sides an associate "'o4esso' o4 "olitical science at eo'+e &asin+ton atino vote and te sootin+ at Neton.@ ,a!a !ayalso +et is ayon te de,t ceilin+ not,ecase o4 is 'eelection Sides says ?,t ,ecase e",licans a'e ,e+innin+ to do,tete' tain+ a a'd line on Kscal "olicy is a +ood idea @ as te "a'ty sIe's in te "olls.]T8E EA> >MTS N P&E]P'esidentsa'e li!ited in at tey can do ,y ti!e and attention s"an o4 co'se Jst as !c as tey a'e ,y electo'al ,alances in te 8ose and Senate. Lt tis too as notin+ to do it "olitical ca"ital. Anote' e ll-o'n !e!e o4 'ecentyea's as tat ,a!a sed " too !c "olitical ca"ital "assin+ te ealt ca'e la in is K'st te'!. Lt te 'eal "'o,le! as tat te "lan as n"o"la' te econo!y as ,ad and te "'esident didn)t 'ealie tat te national!ood yes a+ain te national !oodF as at a ti""in+ "oint a+ainst ,i+-+ove'n!ent inte'vention it te tea-"a'ty 'evolt a,ot to ,'st on te scene. 7o' A!e'icans in 200$ and 2010Ganted ,y too !any 'onds o4 layoIsa""alled ,y te &all St'eet ,ailot a+ast at te a!ont o4 4ede'al s"endin+ tat neve' see!ed to Knd its ay into tei' "ocetsG+ove'n!ent-i!"osed ealt ca'e cove'a+e as si!"ly an inte'vention too 4a'. So as te idea o4anote' econo!ic sti!ls. Ce te tea "a'ty and at ensed: to titanic K+ts ove' te de,t ceilin+. ,a!a lie Ls ad settled on "sin+ an isse tat as ot o4 sync it te cont'y)s !ood. incoln. %aniel %ay->eis)s A,'aa! >incoln atte!"ts a lot o4 ,eind-te-scenesvote-,yin+ to in "assa+e o4 te 13t A!end!ent ,annin+ slave'y alon+ it elo;ent atte!"ts to !ove "eo"le)s ea'ts and !inds. 8e a""ea's to ,e sin+ te "olitical ca"ital o4 is 'eele ction and te t'nin+ o4 te tide in teCivil &a'. Lt it)s clea' tat a s'+e o4 conscience a sense o4 te can+in+ ti!es as as !c to do it te Knal vote as all te ,ac'oo! o'se-t'adin+. ?Te 'eason tin te idea o4 "olitical ca"ital is ind o4 disto'tin+ is tat iti!"lies yo ave cits yo can +ive ot to "eo"le. t 'eally ove'si!"liKes y yo elect "oliticians o' y tey can do at >incoln did@ says To!!y L'ce a 4o'!e' "olitical consltant in &asin+ton. Conside' as anote' e*a!"lete sto'ied "olitical ca'ee' o4 P'esident 7'anlin oosevelt. Lecase te !ood as 'i"e 4o' d'a!atic can+e in te de"ts o4 te 'eat %e"'ession 7% as a,le to "s an astonisin+ a''ay o4 Ne %eal "'o+'a!s t'o+ a la'+elyco!"liant Con+'ess ass!in+ at so!e desc'i,ed as nea'-dictato'ial "oe's. Lt in is second te'! 4ll o4 conKdence ,ecase o4 a landslide victo'y in 1$36 tat ,'o+t in n"'ecedented %e!oc'atic !aJo'ities in te 8ose andSenate oosevelt ove''eaced it is in4a!os Co't-"acin+ "'o"osal. All o4 a sdden te "olitical ca"ital tat e*"e'ts to+t as li!itless disa""ea'ed. 7%)s "lan to e*"and te S"'e!e Co't ,y "ttin+ in is Jdicial alliesa,'"tly c'eated an nantici"ated all o4 o""osition 4'o! nely 'enited e",licans and conse'vative Sote'n %e!oc'ats. 7% ts inadve'tently anded ,ac to Con+'ess es"ecially to te Senate te "oe' and inence ead seied in is K'st te'!. S'e oosevelt ad loads o4 "o"la'ity and !o!ent! in 1$3#. 8e see!ed to ave a ,an valt 4ll o4 "olitical ca"ital. Lt once a+ain a "'esident si!"ly cose to tae on te 'on+ isse at te 'on+ti!eO tis ti!e instead o4 !ost o4 te "olitical inte'ests in te cont'y ali+nin+ is ay tey o""osed i!. oosevelt didn)t 4lly 'ecove' ntil &o'ld &a' des"ite to !o'e election victo'ies. n te'!s o4 ,a!a)s second-te'!a+enda at all tese si4tin+ tides o4 !o!ent! and "olitical calclation !ean is tis: Anytin+ +oes. ,a!a as no !o'e elections to in and e needs to o''y only a,ot te s""o't e ill ave in te 8ose and Senate a4te'

201(. Lt i4 e "ics issestat te cont'y)s !ood ill s""o'tGsc as "e'a"s i!!i+'ation 'e4o'! and +n cont'olGte'e is no 'eason to tin ecan)t in 4a' !o'e victo'iestanany o4 te ca'e4l calclato's o4 "olitical ca"ital no,elieve is"ossi,le incldin+ ,attles ove' ta* 'e4o'! and deKcit 'edction. A!id today)s at!os"e'e o4 e",lican sel4-do,t a ne !o'e !at'e ,a!a see!s to ,e e!e'+in+ one o as is a+enda clea'ly in !ind and ill'ide te !ood o4 te cont'y !o'e ad'oitly. 4 e can +et so!e ea'ly insGas e al'eady as a""a'ently on te Kscal cliI and te ""e'-inco!e ta* inc'easeGtat illc'eate !o!ent! and one in !ay ell lead to ote's. ?&innin+ ins.@ ,a!a i!sel4 lea'ned so!e a'dlessons ove' te "ast 4o' yea's a,ot te 4alsity o4 te "olitical-ca"ital conce"t. %es"ite is decisive victo'y ove' =on McCain in 200/ e 4!,led te sellin+ o4 is V#/# ,illion sti!ls "lan ,y "o't'ayin+ i!sel4 naively as a ?"ost-"a'tisan@ "'esident o so!eo ad ,een +iven te electo'al !andate to ,e all tin+s to all "eo"le. So ,a!a t'ied to sell is sti!ls as a lon+-te'! 'est'ct'in+ "lan tat old ?lay te +'ondo' 4o' lon+-te'! econo!ic+'ot.@ Te "'esident ts 4ed P ss"icions tat e as Jst anote' ,i+-+ove'n!ent li,e'al. 8ad e nde'stood ,ette' tat te cont'y as di++in+ in a+ainst yet !o'e +ove'n!ent inte'vention and ad sold te sti!ls as atit !ainly asGa +iant sot o4 ad'enalin to an e cono!y it a sto""ed ea't a "'e e!e'+ency !eas'eGe !i+t ell ave esca"ed te o'st o4 te ,aclas. Lt ,y layin+ on a!,itios "'o+'a!s and 4olloin+ " ;icly itis ealt ca'e "lan e only sealed is 'e"tation on te 'i+t as a closet socialist. A4te' tat ,a!a)s ",lic "ost'in+ "'ovoed ato!atic o""osition 4'o! te P no !atte' at e said. 4 te "'esident "t is "e'sonali!"'i!at' on any "lanG4'o! deKcit 'edction to ealt ca'e to i!!i+'ation 'e4o'!Ge",licans e'e vi'tally +a'anteed to co!e ot a+ainst it. Lt tis yea' en e so+t to e*"loit te castened P)s ne4ondillin+ness to co!"'o!ise on i!!i+'ation is a""'oac as diIe'ent. 8e see!ed to nde'stand tat te e",licans needed to 'eclai! i!!i+'ation 'e4o'! as tei' on isse and e as illin+ to let te! ave so!e c'edit. &ene !onted is ,lly "l"it in Nevada e delive'ed anote' ne !essa+e as ell: Ho e",licans don)t ave to listen to at say any!o'e. And don)t o''y a,ot o)s +ot te "olitical ca"ital. =st tae a a'd loo at e'e )!sayin+ tis: in a state yo e'e s""osed to ave on ,t lost ,ecase o4 te 'isin+ 8is"anic vote. ,a!a as cleve'ly "ointin+ te P toa'd conclsions tat e nos it is al'eady 'eacin+ on i ts on: 4 yo te e",licansant to ave any ind o4 a 4t'e in a vastly can+ed electo'al !a" yo ave no coice ,t to !ove. t)s yo' coice.

;--< ero c!ance congress reKects 6PP) str'ct'ral %actorsStolt7%oos5 2>1. -- Rac!el5 Re$orter Bail Caller5 Bail Caller5/2/1.5 !tt$://dailcallerco#/2>1./>/2/congress-sec'res-trade-$ro#otion-a't!orit-%or-oba#a/

TPA old +ive Con+'ess !o'e "oe' to sa"e te t'ade a+'ee!ent ,y deKnin+ s"eciKc o,Jectives te "'esident

!st o' toa'd in a deal and ,y settin+ ne t'ans"a'ency 'les. Lt once te "'esident s,!its a

deal to Con+'essTPA +'eatly 'est'icts te Senate)s a,ility to ,loc o' co!"licatetedeal. An deal t!e $resident s'b#its to Congress in t!e ne3t si3 ears isal#ost g'aranteed to $ass ,ecase te Senate !st "'o!"tly a""'ove o' 'eJectte deal it no cance to a!end it and little ti!e 4o' de,ate. And Jst 51 votesold ,e 'e;i'ed 4o' "assa+e G a 4a' c'y 4'o! te 61 votes 'e;i'ed 4o' !aJo'le+islation.E>ATE%: &y A'e Senate e",licans So Ea+e' To Cede Tei' T'ade Ato'ity To ,a!aF&at doyo tin ,a!a says e needs TPA to concldea !assive t'ade deal teT'ans-PaciKcPa'tne'si" ic e is c''ently ne+otiatin+ it 11 ote' cont'ies. And te e",licans o 4o+t 4o' te


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deal say TPA is ey to 4t'e 4'ee t'ade a+'ee!ents tat ill ,eneKt te


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econo!ic c'isis. Te 'e"o't 4ond only ?li!ited evidence@ o4 an inc'ease in ta'iIs non-ta'iI ,a''ie's o' t'ade-'e!edy actions ,y !e!,e' cont'ies ,t noted tat te !ost si+niKcant actions taen in 'es"onse to te +lo,alc'isis ave involved ?Knancial s""o't o4 one ind o' anote' to ,ans and ote' Knancial instittions and to ce'tainindst'ies nota,ly te ato!o,ile indst'y.@11 Te &T 'e"o't notes ta'iI inc'eases on selected "'odcts ,ein+i!"le!ented ,y ndia ssia Ecado' and


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2AC ) A6: No +S+S +#$act

6!e sa no i#$act to +S+S beca'se o% ca$abilities ) ca$abilitiesare irrelevant beca'se t!e S is going to inevitablreintervene in +ra, ) t!is gives +S+S recr'iting $restige andenables t!e# to co##it a #assive terrorist attac0 !ic!triggers great $oer conict ) t!at"s 1AC ?a7are and Corre


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2AC ) A6: No ME +#$act

6!e sa no i#$act to #iddle east instabilit ) t!is is rong:A &ld Evidence ) t!eir 1NC Coo0 evidence is so old t!at itdoesn"t $res'#e t!e e3istence o% +S+S8 Arab leaders are irrelevant ) it"s a ,'estion o% Sintervention en!ancing t!e $restige o% +S+S ) not t!e Arableaders o% Sria and +ra, ) t!at"s 1AC ?a7arre


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***NEG***


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***1NC***


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1NC Politics Bisad

A1.staI 'ite' ?Tese 5 7acts E*"lain te ,stacles tote T'ans-PaciKc Pa'tne'si"@ tt":ti!e.co!3$/00#5tese-5-4acts-e*"lain-te-o,stacles-to-te-t'ans-"aciKc-"a'tne'si" Accessed /102015 '+F

Te !aJo' t'ade deal s!o'ld still $ass ,t te'e a'e si+niKcant sticin+ "oints le4te+acy &atc: A T'ans-PaciKc 7li+t 7'o! Toyo to San

7'ancisco in /( Seconds 8o te Teen Stoaay S'vived 8is T'ans-PaciKc 7li+t in a &eel &ellTe latest'ond o4 T'ans-PaciKc Pa'tne'si" ne+otiations ended in Mai last ee itot an

a+'ee!ent. &en all is said and done te !assive 12-nation t'ade deal ill lin (0_ o4 te o'ld)s econo!y.Te "otential "ayoIs a'e e*"ected to ,e +e 4o' te cont'ies at te ta,le ,t te +eo"olitics o4 sc a

co!"licated t'eaty a'e t'icy. Still ile te deal ill "ass in te end tese Kve 4acts e*"lainte last !aJo' 'dles to te !ost si+niKcant t'ade deal o4 te 21st cent'y .Pa'!acetical 7i+t Acco'din+ to te "a'!acetical co!"anies develo"!ent o4 a ne d'+ ty"ically taes 10 to15 yea's. Eac sccess costs a'ond V1.2 ,illionGincldin+ te "'ice o4 te !any 4ail'es alon+ te ay. A "e'iod o4e*clsivity in te 4o'! o4 "atents a'e te 'ea'd 4o' tis invest!ent. At isse in TPP ne+otiations is en cea"e'+ene'ic 4o'!s o4 ne d'+s can co!e to !a'et o' en tat e*clsivity ends. n te


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1NC A6: +S+S

;--< No great $oer ar4+S+S doesn"t even !ave t!eca$abilities o% a #inor co'ntr:evin Berb5 2/2./2>1.staI 'ite' ?%es"ite L'eain+ &it ,a!a on A


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1NC A6: ME 9ar

No Middle East ar- Arab leaders $rioriti7e regi#e $rotectionover $oer $roKectionCoo0 WV Steven C7 senio' 4ello 4o' Mid East Stdies. LA in inte'nationalstdies 4'o! assa' Colle+e an MA in inte'national 'elations 4'o! te =ons 8o"insScool o4 Advanced nte'national Stdies and ,ot an MA and P% in "oliticalscience 4'o! te e,anese.Te civil a' in >e,anon as'e+a'ded as so!eone elseRs K+t. ndeed tis is te ay !any leade's vie tec''ent sitationin 'a;. To Cai'o A!!an and iyad te sitationin 'a; is o''iso!e ,t in

te end it is an 'a;i and A!e'ican K+t. As 4a' as 'anian !llas a'e conce'ned tey ave lon+"'e4e''ed to "'ess tei' inte'ests t'o+ "'o*ies as o""osed to di'ect en+a+e!ent. At a ti!e en Te'an asaccess and inence ove' "oe'4l Siite !ilitias a !assive c'oss-,o'de' inc'sion is ,ot nliely andnnecessa'y. So 'a;is ill 'e!ain loced in a secta'ian and etnic st'++le tat otside "oe's !ay a,et ,t

ill 'e!ain itin te ,o'de's o4 'a;.Te Middle East is a 'e+ion ,ot "'one andaccsto!ed to civil a's. Lt +iven its e*"e'ience ita!,i+os conicts te'e+ion as also develo"ed an intitive a,ility to contain its civil st'i4e and "'eventlocal conicts 4'o! envelo"in+ te enti'e Middle East.
http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=6383265http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=6383265


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***2NC/1NR***


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***2NC Politics***


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A6: PC Boesn"t E3ist

@irs! is K'st an internet corres$ondent co#$laining abo't t!e ter#$olitical ca$ital-

a 6!ere"s still an agenda crod o't lin0- concedes tradeo(s !a$$en -es$eciall i% a $olic is 'n$o$'lar and o't o% snc it! t!e co'ntr"s#ood4ie t!e $lan

b Bes$ite t!e ev"s !$e5 it concedes it is a real t!ing

c Concl'des &ba#a #essaging on i##igration is a relevant %actor %orG&P s'$$ort

Micael @irsc!5 cie4 co''es"ondent 4o' National =o'nal. 8e also cont'i,tes to 2012 %ecoded.8i's "'eviosly se'ved as te senio' edito' and national econo!ics co''es"ondent 4o' Nesee,ased in its &asin+ton ,'ea. 8e as also Nesee)s &asin+ton e, edito' and ato'ed aeely col!n 4o' Nesee.co! ?Te &o'ld 4'o! &asin+ton.@ Ea'lie' on e as Nesee)s4o'ei+n edito' +idin+ its aa'd-innin+ cove'a+e o4 te Se"te!,e' 11 attacs and te a' on te''o'.8e as done on-te-+'ond 'e"o'tin+ in 'a; A4+anistan and ote' "laces a'ond te o'ld andse'ved as te Toyo-,ased Asia L'ea Cie4 4o' nstittional nvesto' 4'o! 1$$2 to 1$$(.tt":.nationalJo'nal.co!!a+ainete'e-s-no-sc-tin+-as-"olitical-ca"ital-2013020#

n Tesday in is State o4 te aPie''e o4 te National ie Association !a'+inalied i!sel4 it "oo'ly cosen co!!ents soon a4te' te !assac'e.Te "'o-+n lo,,y once a "alan* o4 o""osition ,e+an to Kss'e into 'easona,les and c'aies. 7o'!e' e". a,'ielle iIo'ds %-A'i. o as sot in te ead to yea's a+o and is still st'++lin+ to s"ea and al sta'ted a PACit e' s,and to a""eal to te !ode'ate !iddle o4 +n one's. Ten se +ave 'ivetin+ and "oi+nant testi!ony to te Senate callen+in+ la!ae's: ?Le ,old.@ As a 'eslt !o!ent! as a""ea'ed to ,ild a'ond so!e ind o4a "lan to c'tail sales o4 te !ost dan+e'os ea"ons and a!!nition and te ay "eo"le a'e "e'!itted to ,y te!. t)s i!"ossi,le to say no ete' sc a ,ill ill "ass and i4 it does ete' it ill !ae anytin+ !o'e tancos!etic can+es to +n las. Lt one tin+ is clea': Te "olitical tectonics ave si4ted d'a!atically in ve'y little ti!e. &ole ne "ossi,ilities e*ist no tat didn)t a 4e ees a+o. Meanile te e",lican !e!,e's o4 teSenate)s so-called an+ o4 Ei+t a'e "sin+ a'd 4o' a ne s"i'it o4 co!"'o!ise on i!!i+'ation 'e4o'! a sa'" can+e a4te' an election yea' in ic te P standa'd-,ea'e' decla'ed e old !ae li4e so !ise'a,le 4o' te 11!illion ille+al i!!i+'ants in te oisiana tat itot sc a si4t te "a'ty !ay ,e 4acin+ de!o+'a"ic deat in a cont'y e'e te 2010 censs soed

4o' te K'st ti!e tat ite ,i'ts ave 4allen into te !ino'ity. t)s +ot notin+ to do it ,a!a)s "olitical ca"ital o' indeed ,a!a at all.Te "oint is not tat ?"oliticalca" ital@ isa!eanin+lesste'!. 4ten it is a synony! 4o' ?!andate@ o' ?!o!ent! @ in te a4te'!ato4 a decisive electionGandJst a,ot eve'y "oliticianeve' elected as t'ied to clai! !o'e o4 a !andatetan e actally as.Ce'tainly ,a!a can say tat ,ecase e as elected and o!ney asn)t e as a ,ette' clai! on te cont'y)s !ood and di'ection. Many"ndits still de4end "oliticalca"italas a se4l !eta"o' at least. ?t)san n;antiKa,le ,t !eanin+4l conce"t@saysNo'!an 'nsteino4 te A!e'ican Ente'"'ise nstitte. ?Ho can)t 'eally loo at a "'esident and say e)s +ot 3# onces o4

"olitical ca"ital. Lt t!e %act is5 it"s a conce$t t!at #atters5 i4 yo ave

"o"la'ity andso!e !o!ent!on yo' side.@Te 'eal "'o,le! is tatte idea o4 "olitical ca" italGo' !andates o'!o!ent!Gisso"oo'lydeKnedtat "'esidents and "ndits o4ten +et it 'on+. ?P'esidentssally ove'-esti!ate it @says eo'+e Eda'ds a "'esidentialscola' at Te*as AWM


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at e ants and e +ets it ten eac ti!e tat a""ens it can+es te calcls o4 te ote' acto's@ 'nstein says. ?4 tey tin e)s +oin+ to in tey !ay can+e "ositions to +et on te innin+ side. t)s a ,anda+on

eIect.@]A>> T8E &AH &T8 >L=]So!eti!es a cleve' "'actitione 'o4 "oe'can +et !o'e doneJst ,ecase e)sa++'essive and nos te allays o4 Con+'ess ell. Te*as AWM)s Eda'ds is 'i+tto say tat te otco!e o4te 1$6( election >yndon =onson)s landslide victo'y ove' La''y oldate' as one o4 te 4e tat conveyed a !andate. Lt one o4 te !a in 'easons 4o' tat !andate in addition to oldate')s ine"titde as a candidateF asP'esident =onson)s !aste'4l se o4 "oe' leadin+ " to tat election and is a,ility to +et 4a' !o'e done tan anyone to+t "ossi,le +iven is li!ited "olitical ca"ital. n te neest vol!e in is e*astive stdy o4 >L= TePassa+e o4 Poe' isto'ian o,e't Ca'o 'ecalls =onson +ettin+ cationa'y advice a4te' e ass!ed te "'esidency 4'o! te assassinated =on 7. ennedy in late 1$63. %on)t 4ocs on a l on+-stalled civil-'i+ts ,ill advise's told i!,ecase it !i+t Jeo"a'die Sote'n la!ae's) s""o't 4o' a ta* ct and a""'o"'iations ,ills te "'esident needed. ?ne o4 te ise "'actical "eo"le a'ond te ta,le Ysaid tatZ te "'esidency as only a ce'tain a!ont o4 coina+eto e*"end and yo o+tn)t to e*"end it on tis@ Ca'o 'ites. Coina+e o4 co'se as at "olitical ca "ital as called in tose days.F =onson 'e"lied ?&ell at te ell)s te "'esidency 4o'@ =onson didn)t o''y a,ot coina+eand e +ot te Civil i+ts Act enacted alon+ it !c else: Medica'e a ta* ct anti"ove'ty "'o+'a!s. 8e a""ea'ed to nde'stand not Jst te ays o4 Con+'ess ,t also te ay to !a*i!ie te !o!ent! e "ossessed in telin+e'in+ !ood o4 national +'ie4 and dete'!ination ,y "icin+ te 'i+t isses as Ca'o 'eco'ds. ?Mo!ent! is not a !yste'ios !ist'ess@ >L= said. ?t is a cont'olla,le 4act o4 "olitical li4e.@ =onson ad te sill and e'eital to'ealie tat at tat !o!ent o4 isto'y e cold ave nli!ited coina+e i4 e andled te "olitics 'i+t. 8e did. At lea st ntil ietna! tat is.F And ten te'e a'e te "'esidents o +et te "olitics and te isses 'on+. t as telast "'esident ,e4o'e ,a!a o as Jst sta'tin+ a second te'! eo'+e &. Ls o 'eally 'evived te clai! o4 "olitical ca"ital ic e as ve'y 4ond o4 ieldin+. Ten Ls "'o!"tly de!onst'ated tat e didn)t 4lly

nde'stand te conce"t eite'. At is K'st nes con4e'ence a4te' is 200( victo'y a conKdent-sondin+ Ls decla'ed ? ea'ned ca"ital in te ca!"ai+n "olitical ca"ital and no intend to s"end it. Tat)s !y style.@ Te (3'd"'esident t'e all o4 is "olitical ca"ital at an ove''idin+ "assion: te "a'tial "'ivatiation o4 Social Sec'ity. 8e !onted a 4ll-,o'e ",lic-'elations ca!"ai+n tat inclded ton-all !eetin+s ac'oss te cont'y. Ls 4ailed tte'lyo4 co'se. Lt te "'o,le! as not tat e didn)t ave eno+ "olitical ca"ital. Hes e !ay ave ove'esti!ated is standin+. Ls)s !a'+in ove' =on e''y as tinGel"ed alon+ ,y a ,!,lin+ e''y ca!"ai+n tat as al!ost te!i''o' i!a+e o4 o!ney)s +aIe-Klled 4ail'e tis ti!eG,t tat as not te 'eal !istae. Te "'o,le! as tat ateve' c'edi,ility o' stat'e Ls to+t e ad ea'ned as a nely 'eelected "'esident did notin+ to !ae SocialSec'ity "'ivatiation a ,ette' idea in !ost "eo"le)s eyes. ote's didn)t t'st te "lan and 4o' yea's late' at te end o4 Ls)s te'! te stoc-!a'et colla"se ,o'e ot te ",lic)s se"ticis!. P'ivatiation Jst didn)t ave any

!o!ent! ,eind it no !atte' o as "sin+ it o' o !c ca"ital Ls s"ent to sell it.Te !istae tat Ls !ade it Social Sec'itysays=on Sides an associate "'o4esso' o4 "olitical science at eo'+e &asin+ton atino voteand te sootin+ at Neton.@ ,a!a !ay also +et is ay on te de,t ceilin+ not ,ecase o4 is 'eelection Sides says ?,t ,ecase e",licans a'e ,e+innin+ to do,t ete' tain+ a a'd lineon Kscal "olicy is a +ood idea@ as te "a'ty sIe's in te "olls.]T8E EA> >MTS N P&E]P'esidentsa'e li!ited in attey can do ,y ti!e and attentions"an o4 co'seJst as !c as tey a'e ,yelecto'al

,alancesin te 8ose and Senate . Lt tis too as notin+ to do it "olitical ca"ital. A note' ell-o'n !e!e o4 'ecent yea's as tat ,a!a sed " too !c "oliticalca"ital "assin+ te ealt ca'ela in is K'st te'!. Lt te 'eal "'o,le!as tat te "lan as n"o"la' te econo!y as ,ad and te"'esident didn)t 'ealie tat te national !ood yes a+ain te national !oodF as at a ti""in+ "oint a+ainst ,i+-+ove'n!ent inte'vention it te tea-"a'ty 'evolt a,ot to ,'st on te scene. 7o' A!e'icans in 200$ and 2010Ganted ,y too !any 'onds o4 layoIs a""alled ,y te &all St'eet ,ailot a+ast at te a!ont o4 4ede'al s"endin+ tat neve' see!ed to Knd its ay into tei' "ocetsG+ove'n!ent-i!"osed ealt ca'e cove'a+e as si!"ly an

inte'vention too 4a'. So as te idea o4 anote' econo!ic sti!ls. Ce te tea "a'ty and at ensed: to titanic K+ts ove' te de,t ceilin+. ,a!a lie Ls ad settled on

"sin+ an issetat as o't o% snc it! t!e co'ntr"s #ood . incoln. %aniel %ay->eis)s A,'aa! >incoln atte!"ts a lot o4 ,eind-te-scenes vote-,yin+ to in "assa+e o4 te 13t A!end!ent ,annin+ slave'y alon+ it elo;ent atte!"ts to !ove "eo"le)s ea'ts and !inds. 8e a""ea's to ,e sin+ te "olitical ca"ital o4 is 'eelection a nd te t'nin+ o4 te

tide in te Civil &a'. Lt it)s clea' tat a s'+e o4 conscience a sense o4 te can+in+ ti!es as as !c to do it te Knal vote as all te ,ac'oo! o'se-t'adin+. ?Te 'eason tin te idea o4 "oliticalca"italis ind o4 disto'tin+ is tat it i!"lies yo ave cits yo can +ive ot to "eo"le. t 'eally ove'si!"liKesy yo elect "oliticians o' y tey can do at >incoln did@ says To!!y L'ce a4o'!e' "olitical consltant in &asin+ton. Conside' as anote' e*a!"le te sto'ied "olitical ca'ee' o4 P'esident 7'anlin oosevelt. Lecase te !ood as 'i"e 4o' d'a!atic can+e in te de"ts o4 te 'eat %e"'ession 7% asa,le to "s an astonisin+ a''ay o4 Ne %eal "'o+'a!s t'o+ a la'+ely co!"liant Con+'ess ass!in+ at so!e desc'i,ed as nea'-dictato'ial "oe's. Lt in is second te'! 4ll o4 conKdence ,ecase o4 a landslide victo'y in1$36 tat ,'o+t in n"'ecedented %e!oc'atic !aJo'ities in te 8ose and Senate oosevelt ove''eaced it is in4a!os Co't-"acin+ "'o"osal. All o4 a sdden te "olitical ca"ital tat e*"e'ts to+t as li!itlessdisa""ea'ed. 7%)s "lan to e*"and te S"'e!e Co't ,y "ttin+ in is Jdicial allies a,'"tly c'eated an nantici"ated all o4 o""osition 4'o! nely 'enited e",licans and conse'vative Sote'n %e!oc'ats. 7% tsinadve'tently anded ,ac to Con+'ess es"ecially to te Senate te "oe' and inence e ad seied in is K'st te'!. S'e oosevelt ad loads o4 "o"la'ity and !o!ent! in 1$3#. 8e see!ed to ave a ,an valt 4ll o4"olitical ca"ital. Lt once a+ain a "'esident si!"ly cose to tae on te 'on+ isse at te 'on+ ti!eO tis ti!e instead o4 !ost o4 te "olitical inte'ests in te cont'y ali+nin+ is ay tey o""osed i!. oosevelt didn)t 4lly

'ecove' ntil &o'ld &a' des"ite to !o'e election victo'ies. n te'!s o4 ,a!a)s second-te'! a+enda at all tesesi4tin+ tides o4 !o!ent! and "olitical calclation !ean is tis:Anytin+ +oes. ,a!aas no !o'eelections to in and e needs to o''yonly a,ot te s""o'te ill ave in te 8ose and Senate a4te'201(. Lt i4 e "ics isses tat te cont'y)s !ood ill s""o'tGsc as "e'a"s i!!i+'ation 'e4o'! and +n cont'olGte'e is no 'eason to tin e can)t in 4a' !o'e victo'ies tan any o4 te ca'e4l calclato's o4 "olitical ca"italno ,elieve is "ossi,le incldin+ ,attles ove' ta* 'e4o'! and deKcit 'edction. A!id today)s at!os"e'e o4 e",lican sel4-do,t a ne !o'e !at'e ,a!a see!s to ,e e!e'+in+ one o as is a+enda clea'ly in !ind and il l'ide te !ood o4 te cont'y !o'e a d'oitly. 4 e can +et so!e ea'ly insGas e al'eady as a""a'ently on te Kscal cliI and te ""e'-inco!e ta* inc'easeGtat ill c'eate !o!ent! and one in !ay ell lead to ote's.?&innin+ ins.@ ,a!a i!sel4 lea'ned so!e a'd lessons ove' te "ast 4o' yea's a,ot te 4alsity o4 te "olitical-ca"ital conce"t. %es"ite is decisive victo'y ove' =on McCain in 200/ e 4!,led te sellin+ o4 is V#/# ,illionsti!ls "lan ,y "o't'ayin+ i!sel4 naively as a ?"ost-"a'tisan@ "'esident o so!eo ad ,een +iven te electo'al !andate to ,e all tin+s to all "eo"le. So ,a!a t'ied to sell is sti!ls as a lon+-te'! 'est'ct'in+ "lan tatold ?lay te +'ondo' 4o' lon+-te'! econo!ic +'ot.@ Te "'esident ts 4ed P ss"icions tat e as Jst anote' ,i+-+ove'n!ent li,e'al. 8ad e nde'stood ,ette' tat te cont'y as di++in+ in a+ainst yet !o'e+ove'n!ent inte'vention and ad sold te sti!ls as at it !ainly asGa +iant sot o4 ad'enalin to an econo!y it a sto""ed ea't a "'e e!e'+ency !eas'eGe !i+t ell ave esca"ed te o'st o4 te ,aclas. Lt ,ylayin+ on a!,itios "'o+'a!s and 4olloin+ " ;icly it is ealt ca'e "lan e only sealed is 'e"tation on te 'i+t as a closet socialist. A4te' tat ,a!a)s ",lic "ost'in+ "'ovoed ato!atic o""osition 4'o! te P no!atte' at e said. 4 te "'esident "t is "e'sonal i!"'i!at' on any "lanG4'o! deKcit 'edction to ealt ca'e to i!!i+'ation 'e4o'!Ge",licans e'e vi'tally +a'anteed to co!e ot a+ainst it. Lt tis yea' en eso+t to e*"loit te castened P)s ne4ond illin+ness to co!"'o!ise on i!!i+'ation is a""'oac as diIe'ent. 8e see!ed to nde'stand tat te e",licans needed to 'eclai! i!!i+'ation 'e4o'! as tei' on isse and

e as illin+ to let te! ave so!e c'edit. &en e !onted is ,lly "l"it in Nevada e delive'ed anote'ne !essa+eas ell: Ho e",licans don)t ave to listen to at say any!o'e. And don)t o''y a,ot o)s +ot te "oli tical ca"ital. =st tae a a'd loo at

e'e )! sayin+tis: in a state yoe'e s""osed to ave on ,t lost ,ecase o4 te 'isin+ 8is"anic vote .,a!a ascleve'ly "ointin+ te P toa'd conclsions tat e nos it is a l'eady 'eacin+ on its on: 4 yo te e",licans ant to ave anyind o4 a 4t'e in a vastly can+ed electo'al !a" yo ave no coice ,t to !ove. t)s yo' coice.


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A6: 6PP Passage +nevitable

&ba#a PC 0e to 6PP $ost %ast trac0 ) g!t over deal itself ist!e decisive last ro'nd and ill be a @GE $olitical battle )$assage li0el no5 b't not g'aranteed8enen5 /2. ) Steve5 MSN8C $olitical contrib'tor5 Prod'cerRac!el Maddo S!o5 !tt$://#snbcco#/rac!el-#addo-s!o/oba#as-trade-agenda-bac0-t!e-brin0

,a!a)s t'ade a+enda ,ac 4'o! te ,'in 7o' tose en+a+ed in te de,ate ove't'ade te last si* ees ave ,een a roller coaster 'nli0e ant!ing t!e$olitical orld !as seen in a !ile. ""onents o4 P'esident ,a!a)s t'adea+enda e'e innin+ te s""o'te's e'e innin+. Ten o""onents 'eclai!ed teadvanta+e only to see s""o'te's tae it 'i+t ,ac. As o4 late yeste'day oeve'it a$$ears t!e 9!ite @o'se and its 'n's'al set o% allies are going to gete3actl !at t!e ant. NLC Nes 'e"o'ted last ni+t: A c'itical as"ecto4 P'esident La'ac,a!a)s econo!ic le+acy +ot a ,ooston &ednesday en te Senate voted to a""'ove +ivin+i! ?4ast-t'ac@ ato'ity to ne+otiate a see"in+ 12-nation t'ade "act itot tet'eat o4 Con+'ess addin+ a!end!ents o' Kli,ste'in+ te Knal deal. Te vote as60-3/.Te !eas'e no eads to te "'esident)s des 4o' si+nat'e. Te Knal 'oll call on te Senate vote isonline e'e. Note Con+'ess "assed T'ade P'o!otion Ato'ity ,ette' non as ?4ast-t'ac@ itot te la,o'-4'iendly T'ade AdJst!ent Assistance ,t tat ill soon can+e.


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A6: No +#$act to Protectionis#6PP critical to S trade leaders!i$ and reversing bac0sliding

on global trade ) its not 'esilient ne "'otectionist consensse!e'+in+ TPP is ey !odel s"ills ove' and sets ,a' 4o' all 4t'e +lo,alt'adeE7ell5 n4o'!ation Tecnolo+y and nnovation 7ondation 10-2$-1D

YSte"en ?T'ade P'o!otion Ato'ity A ital Co!"onent o4


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***2NC Case***


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2NC/1NR A6: +S+S

No i#$act to +S+S1 ?i#ited %orce ) t!e 1NC Berb evidence arg'es t!at +S+Sdoesn"t !ave t!e #ilitar ca$abilit to be serio's5 crediblet!reat

2 Ca$acit ) s#all n'#bers5 eas to target and no %oreignterrorist attac0s #eans +S+S isn"t a t!reatMelle' #-23-15

Y=on is a "olitical scientist at io State


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2NC/1NR A6: ME 9ar

No Middle East ar )1 Sel%- Preservation - 6!e 1NC Coo0 evidence arg'es t!ereill be no #iddle instabilit beca'se leaders are t$icall sel%-$reserving as o$$osed to $oer $roKecting Pre%er o'revidence beca'se Coo0 is a CFR senior %ello in Middle Eastst'dies

2 E#$irics $rove ) no #iddle east instabilit -Malone WVSanne Senio' 7ello Sa,an Cente' 4o' Middle East Policy Steve

Coo 7ello Concil on 7o'ei+n elations and ay Taey 7ello Concil 4o'7o'ei+n elations ?&y te 'a; &a' &on)t En+l4 te Mideast@ nte'national 8e'ald

T'i,ne tt":.,'ooin+s.edvieso"-ed!aloney200#062$.t! =ne 2/200#F

Yet, the Saudis, Iranians, Jordanians, Syrians, and others are very unlikely to go to war either to

protect their own sect or ethnic group or to prevent one country from gaining the upper hand in Iraq.

The reasons are fairly straightforward. First, iddle !astern leaders, like politicians everywhere, are

primarily interested in one thing" self#preservation. $ommitting forces to Iraq is an inherently risky

proposition, which, if the conflict went %adly, XandY co'ld t!reaten do#estic $oliticalstabilit. oreover, most &ra% armies are geared toward regime protection rather than pro'ectingpower and thus have little capa%ility for sending troops to Iraq. Second, there is cause for concern

a%out the so#called %low%ack scenario in which 'ihadis returning from Iraq desta%ili(e their homecountries, plunging the region into conflict. iddle !astern leaders are preparing for this possi%ility.

)nlike in the *++s, when &ra% fighters in the &fghan 'ihad against the Soviet )nion returned to

&lgeria, !gypt and Saudi &ra%ia and %ecame a source of insta%ility, &ra% security services are %eing

vigilant a%out who is coming in and going from their countries. In the last month, the Saudi

government has arrested appro-imately people suspected of ties with militants. /iyadh is also

%uilding a 0 kilometer wall along part of its frontier with Iraq in order to keep militants out of the

kingdom. Finally, there is no precedent for &ra% leaders to commit forces to conflicts in which they

are not directly involved. The Iraqis and the Saudis did send small contingents to fight the Israelis in

*+12 and *+30, %ut they were either ineffective or never made it. In the *+0s and *+2s, &ra%

countries other than Syria, which had a compelling interest in esta%lishing its hegemony over

4e%anon, never committed forces either to protect the 4e%anese from the Israelis or from other4e%anese. The civil war in 4e%anon was regarded as someone else5s fight.

Novice Starter File 9-3-15

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