NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08 THE OPPORTUNITIES OF HUNGARIAN WIND ENERGY Álvaro Rodrigues September 2008.

NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08

THE OPPORTUNITIES OF THE OPPORTUNITIES OF

HUNGARIAN WIND ENERGYHUNGARIAN WIND ENERGY

Álvaro RodriguesÁlvaro Rodrigues

September 2008


. Renewable Energy Sources - Wind Energy

. Renewables and electricity

. Wind Energy in Europe – Hungary / Portugal

. The “ingredients” for a wind farm project

. Y do we care so much about wind?

. Wind velocity, wind turbines and productivity

. Uncertainty in resource evaluation and production

estimates

Summary


WIND

WAVES

BIOMASS

WASTES

PHOTOVOLTAIC

SOLAR THERMAL

TIDAL

HYDRO GEOTHERMAL

Renewable Energy Sources

WIND


Renewables and electricity

Biomass

Tidal

Hydro

Wind

Mechanicalenergy

Electricity

Thermalenergy

Chemicalenergy

OTEC

Atm. air

Radiation

Waves

Nuclear

Geothermal

PV


Wind energy – annual growth

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1001992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Capaci

ty [

GW

]

Europe

World


Wind energy in Europe - 2007

112 MW


Portugal / Hungary

92 391 km210 617 575 inh

~11,0 GW~ 8,5 GW

93 030 km210 064 000 inh

~8,5 GW~6,5 GW


3,475

17,475

65,075

112,075

60,875

3,2500,8500,8500

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

MW

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Cap

acit

y [M

W]

Accumulated

New capacity

Under construction

Installed capacities

Hungary

Portugal

124,950

112,075


by 2012, 45% of the electricity consumption

are to be provided by renewables

consideringthe estimated growth

of demand

considering the contributions

from other sources

it will be necessary to get

~ 5 700 MW from wind !

Portugal – the target


NovEnergia II Hungary

# Project Capacity[MW]

Investment[M€]

Productivity[hfc]

Rights on landsEnvironmental

permissionBuilding permission Interconnection

1 A 30 45 2100 Secured Obtained ObtainedProject under negotiation

2 B 30 45 2100 To renew ObtainedObtainedfor 6 MW

LOI obtained

3 C 28 42 2100 To be secured Ready to apply Not startedConnect. point

at 10 km

4 D 22 33 2500 Secured Obtained Obtained Obtained

5 E 50 75 2400 Secured Obtained Not started LOI obtained

6 F 24 - 36 36 - 54 2200 Partly secured Not started Not startedConnect. point

at 2-3 km

7 G 40 60 2500 SecuredObtained for 36

MWObtainedfor 24 MW

24 MW obtainedplan for 16 MW

Und

er

deve

lopm

ent

Und

er

nego

tiat

ions

Und

er stu

dy


Wind / wind resource maps


LAND WIND

GRID TECHNOLOGY

Wind farms - the “ingredients”


LAND WIND

GRID TECHNOLOGY

… processing … done !!!


Site selection

Contacts with local authorities

Negotiations for the land (rental or acquisition)

Wind measuring campaign

Environmental studies

Electrical connection study

Wind resource assessment

Project definition

Development of a wind energy project


[Manufacturer pre-selection (WECs)]

Projects (main access, power line)

Call for tenders

Offer selection / negotiation / contract

Detailed projects

Construction

Commissioning

Follow up and performance verification

Development of a wind energy project


Measuring the wind

Why?

Where?

What?

How?

How long?


Why measuring the wind?

6,18 6,50 6,83-5,0% - 5,0%

4657 5138 5609

-9,4% - 9,2%

Productivity[hfc]

2329 2569 2804

Capacity factor[%]

26,6 29,3 32,0

Incoming (PT)[€]

350 300 388 000 425 000

Average selling price (PT)[€/MWh]

75,2 75,5 75,8

Production[MWh/ano]

Wind velocity (nacelle)

(rar=1,18 kg/m3 ; kWeib=1,8)[m/s]

For a 2 MW ( ≈ 80 m ) WEC


Measuring effort


What to measure?

5 1 0 1 5 2 0

N

EW

S0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Velocidade do Vent o [m/ s]

0

5

10

15

Freq

uênc

ia [%

]

Wind velocity [m/s]

Fre

qu

en

cy [

%]

Direction and velocity

rair Atmospheric pressure | ambient temperature | air humidity


Which wind characteristics?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 2 4 6 8 10

Velocidade do vento [m/ s]

Alt

ura

a.n.

s [m

]

N

Global

Velocidade média

PORT230 - Monte da Ovelha

(60 / 30 m a.n.s.) 52610 registos

Wind velocity [m/s]

Heig

ht

a.g

.l.

[m]

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25N

E

S

W

Expoente de perfi l positivo ( p )

Expoente de perfi l negativo (- p )


(60 / 30 m a.n.s.) 52610 registos

Positive shear factor

Negative shear factor

Shear factor [ V / V0 = (h / h0)]


Wind velocity, wind turbines and productivity

for 5,5 m/s at 60 m agl

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

0,6 MW2,53 m2/ kW

0,85 MW3,11 m2/ kW

1,5 MW3,10 m2/ kW

2 MW2,51 m2/ kW

2,3 MW3,02 m2/ kW

Pro

duct

ivity

[hfc

]

turbine axis height

60 m a.g.l

46 m

65 m

80 m

78 m

100m


Which wind characteristics?

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 5 10 15 20 25

Velocidade do vento [m/s]

Inte

nsid

ade

de

turb

ulên

cia

[%]

IT

IT (14<v15 m/s)


(60 m a.n.s.) 366 Dias válidos

Wind velocity [m/s]

Tu

rbu

len

ce in

ten

sit

y [

%]

Turbulence intensity [ I = / V]


How long shell a measuring campaign last?

0

2

4

6

8

10

J an Fev Mar Abr Mai J un J ul Ago Set Out Nov Dez

Velo

cid

ade d

o v

ento

[m

/s]

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Flu

xo d

e p

otê

ncia

[W

/m2 ]

Fluxo de potência a 10 m a.n.s.

Velocidade média a 10 m a.n.s.

Mon

thly

avera

ge v

elo

city

[m

/s]

Pow

er

flu

x [

W/m

2]

Seasonal variability

0

2

4

6

8

10

J an-04 Fev-04 Mar-04 Abr-04 Mai-04 J un-04 J ul-04 Ago-04 Set-04 Out-04 Nov-04 Dez-04

Velo

cida

de d

o ve

nto

[m/s

]

0

200

400

600

Flux

o de

pot

ênci

a [W

/m2 ]

Fluxo de potência a 60 m a.n.s.

Velocidade média a 60 m a.n.s. M

on

thly

avera

ge v

elo

city

[m

/s]

Pow

er

flu

x [

W/m

2]


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Vel

ocid

ade

méd

ia a

nual

[m

/s]

Inter-annual variability

An

nu

al avera

ge v

elo

city

[m

/s]

How long shell a measuring campaign last?

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004


Velocitymeasurements

Inter-annualvariability

Topography Roughness Others

Air densityPower curve Others

Verticalextrapolation

UNCERTAINTYIN POWER

Horizontalextrapolation

AD. UNCERTAINT.

UNCERTAINTYIN VELOCITY

PRODUCTIONUNCERTAINTY

Uncertainty in production estimates


Uncertainty in production estimates

Uncertainty factor % Uncertainty factor %

Velocity measurements 2,0

Inter-annual variability 1,5

Topography 1,0

Roughness description 1,0

Vertical extrapolation 2,0

Horizontal extrapolation 5,0

Others 1,0

Uncertainty in velocity 6,3

Determination of air density 2,0

Velocity-to-energy convertion 2,2 WEC power curve 2,5Others 2,0

Uncertainty in power 13,8 Aditional uncertainties 3,8

14,3%UNCERTAINTY IN PRODUCTION


0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Exceedence probability

P/P5

015 %12,5 %10%

Exceedence probabilities

2300 hfc

2005 hfc

1857 hfc


That’s what we are looking for

NovEnergia II Technical Bureau - Sep08 THE OPPORTUNITIES OF HUNGARIAN WIND ENERGY Álvaro Rodrigues September 2008.

Documents

wind energy project

wind turbines

acquisition wind

wind characteristics

hungary slide

gw slide

mw slide

wec slide