November 2011 It’s growth, educators: Know thy impact John Hattie University of Melbourne Optimism in Challenging Times Northern regional conference -

November 2011

It’s growth, educators: Know thy impact

John HattieUniversity of Melbourne

Optimism in Challenging TimesNorthern regional conference - Lorne

The dilemmas of democracy and school leadership.

Public Perceptions of Schools

Democracy ...

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that point on,

the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship” Alexander Tytler (1834).

The pendulum swings in educational leadership

Political Market Bureaucratic Social Pedagogical Impact

Pre 1980'sHigh at school

High at school

High at centre

High at centre

Low at centre

High at school

Late 80's Increased

Move to parents (but not realised)

Reduced at centre

Higher at schools

Move more to schools

High at school

1990-2000’s Dominant

Moving even more to parents

Even higher at schools

Moving to Centre

Move to schools

Moving to centre

2010 -- All in centreDominant by

parents All in schoolsEven more to Centre

All in schools

Strong at centre

School

Regions

Department

Centre

The pendulum swings in educational leadership

Political Market Bureaucratic Social Pedagogical Impact

Pre 1980'sHigh at school

High at school

High at centre

High at centre

Low at centre

High at school

Late 80's Increased

Move to parents (but not realised)

Reduced at centre

Higher at schools

Move more to schools

High at school

1990-2000’s Dominant

Moving even more to parents

Even higher at schools

Moving to Centre

Move to schools

Moving to centre

2010 -- All in centreDominant by

parents All in schoolsEven more to Centre

All in schools

Strong at centre

School

Regions

Department

Centre

The pendulum swings in educational leadership

Political Market Bureaucratic Social Pedagogical Impact

Pre 1980'sHigh at school

High at school

High at centre

High at centre

Low at centre

High at school

Late 80's Increased

Move to parents (but not realised)

Reduced at centre

Higher at schools

Move more to schools

High at school

1990-2000’s Dominant

Moving even more to parents

Even higher at schools

Moving to Centre

Move to schools

Moving to centre

2010 -- All in centreDominant by

parents All in schoolsEven more to Centre

All in schools

Strong at centre

School

Regions

Department

Centre

The pendulum swings in educational leadership

Political Market Bureaucratic Social Pedagogical Impact

Pre 1980'sHigh at school

High at school

High at centre

High at centre

Low at centre

High at school

Late 80's Increased

Move to parents (but not realised)

Reduced at centre

Higher at schools

Move more to schools

High at school

1990-2000’s Dominant

Moving even more to parents

Even higher at schools

Moving to Centre

Move to schools

Moving to centre

2010 -- All in centreDominant by

parents All in schoolsEven more to Centre

All in schools

Strong at centre

School

Regions

Department

Centre

The pendulum swings in educational leadership

Political Market Bureaucratic Social Pedagogical Impact

Pre 1980'sHigh at school

High at school

High at centre

High at centre

Low at centre

High at school

Late 80's Increased

Move to parents (but not realised)

Reduced at centre

Higher at schools

Move more to schools

High at school

1990-2000’s Dominant

Moving even more to parents

Even higher at schools

Moving to Centre

Move to schools

Moving to centre

2010 -- All in centreDominant by

parents All in schoolsEven more to Centre

All in schools

Strong at centre

School

Regions

Department

Centre

The pendulum swings in educational leadership

Political Market Bureaucratic Social Pedagogical Impact

Pre 1980'sHigh at school

High at school

High at centre

High at centre

Low at centre

High at school

Late 80's Increased

Move to parents (but not realised)

Reduced at centre

Higher at schools

Move more to schools

High at school

1990-2000’s Dominant

Moving even more to parents

Even higher at schools

Moving to Centre

Move to schools

Moving to centre

2010 -- All in centreDominant by

parents All in schoolsEven more to Centre

All in schools

Strong at centre

School

Regions

Department

Centre

The debates about SES

the tail, &

the gap

Reading distribution

Reading distribution

Reading distribution (N=126,424)

Victoria Reading: Up to Year 12 vs. Post Secondary parental education

AUSTRALIA’S performance over time

So to the Northern Region

There are 1574 schools in Victoria and 192 in Northern Region

Reading

Writing

Numeracy

GROWTH

But what about the growth

First – let us set some expectations

Synthesis of meta-analyses NAPLAN across Oz 2007+

Concept of effect-sizes

Decreased EnhancedZero

0

The typical influence on achievement

900+ meta-analysis

55,000 studies, and

240+ million students

Effect on Achievement over time?

Decreased EnhancedZero

0

Typical Effect Size

1.0.40

Distribution of effects

Transformational

Instructional

Leadership…

Transformational Instructional

Set the vision, school goals,

the expectations

Instructional support

Monitoring school activity

Buffering staff from external

demands

Ensures that staffing is fair

and equitable

Easily accessible to students

and staff

Secures a high degree of

autonomy for the staff

makes several formal classroom

observations each year

interprets test scores with teachers

Insists teachers collaborate the

teaching program across grades

insists teachers expect high

proportions of their students to do

well on achievement outcomes

insists and knows that class

atmosphere in this school is

generally very conducive to

learning for all students.

Remarkable!

Naplan

Growth over time ALL = . 40Year 3-5 = .54 Year 5-7 = .35 Year 7-9

= .26

Reading Writing Spelling Grammar Numeracy

Average (purple) and Growth (red)

The scene is set

We can expect .4 per year

Or .8 over two years

Effect sizes for background

Growth comparisons

Males and female growth similar 0.05

LOTE higher than non-LOTE 0.13

Indigenous growth similar 0.04

Lower parental occupation higher growth than upper 0.11

Where does WMR sit? - Mean status

Relative to SES

EMR SMR NMR BSW GIP GMP LMR HME WMR

SES ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Relative to SES

EMR SMR NMR BSW GIP GMP LMR HME WMR

SES ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Growth 1 2 3 6 7 8 5 9 4

Growth effects

Be wary about status not progress

Gonski Report

Linking funding to outcomes

Reference schools are those where at least 80 per

cent of students are achieving above the national

minimum standard, for their year level, in both

reading and numeracy, across each of the three

years 2008 to 2010 (p. 157).

A profile of NMR

Growth ES % students > .80Northern Victoria Northern Victoria

Reading 0.66 0.66 40% 43%

Writing 0.55 0.53 39% 41%

Numeracy 0.74 0.74 44% 47%

No. of schools with Reading, Writing, Numeracy > .80

Northern VictoriaNone 24% 25%One 36% 35%Two 28% 28%

Three 12% 12%

Great vs. Low Growth Schools

Reading Writing Numeracy

Low 1 0.15 0.17 0.13

Low 2 0.20 0.15 0.25

Low 3 0.20 0.21 0.11

Low 4 0.27 0.45 0.07

Low 5 0.21 0.26 0.15

Reading Writing Numeracy

High 1 0.80 0.40 0.64

High 2 0.52 0.68 0.64

High 3 0.66 0.46 0.71

High 4 0.65 0.60 0.73

High 5 0.62 0.70 0.70

The Low & High Growth Northern Schools

Relation to SES

It is the case that there is a positive correlation between Achievement score and SFO

SFO and Achievement

But no relation between SES and Growth

Calculating PROGRESS effect-sizes

Student February test June test Individual

Growth EffectsDavid 460 455 -0.28Eeofa 445 450 0.28Anne 425 432 0.39Barry 432 440 0.44Hemi 420 430 0.56Juliet 463 475 0.67Corrin 435 448 0.72Karmo 480 500 1.11Fred 450 475 1.39Ginnie 425 455 1.67

Average: 444 456Spread 20 22Ave spread Ave of 20 + 22 21

Effect size (456-444) / 21 0.60

Calculating PROGRESS effect-sizes

Student February test June test Individual

Growth EffectsDavid 460 455 -0.28Eeofa 445 450 0.28Anne 425 432 0.39Barry 432 440 0.44Hemi 420 430 0.56Juliet 463 475 0.67Corrin 435 448 0.72Karmo 480 500 1.11Fred 450 475 1.39Ginnie 425 455 1.67

Average: 444 456Spread 20 22Ave spread Ave of 20 + 22 21

Effect size (456-444) / 21 0.60

A disposition to asking …

•How do I know this is working?

•How can I compare ‘this’ with ‘that’?

•What is the merit and worth of this influence on learning?

•What is the magnitude of the effect?

•What evidence would convince you that you are wrong?

•Where is the evidence that shows this is superior to other programs?

•Where have you seen this practice installed so that it produces effective results?

•Do I share a common conception of progress?

The Leader as Evaluator – Know thy

impact

Expectations – Christine Rubie-Davies -- University of Auckland

Low expectation High expectation

Effects = -.03 to .20 Effects = .50 to 1.44

Expect low performance, see low performance, and this reinforces their views about low performance

Expect improvement, see the errors, and seek negative evidence to enact improvement

Intelligence is fixed Intelligence is malleable

Facilitators, constructivists, socializersDirector, active change agent, academic instructor

Great differences between students in class Lower differences between students in class

Some expected to improve All expected to improve

Differentiated activities in class Less differentiated activities in classSee low effort, class behaviour, in-class relationships, try hard

See confidence, motivation, persistence, and attitude to work

Males - performance orientation Females - mastery orientationMore in higher decile schools More in lower decile schools

The Leader Mantra

1. Decide where & what impact one wants.

2. Collaborate with all to Know thy impact

3. Ensure there are the resources to know and have impact

4. Success when thy has above average impact

The Teacher Mantra

Analyse, Intervene, Evaluate

Levers of Change

It’s growth, educators: Know thy impact

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