NOVA CHIEFS Pandemic Summery NVRC April 11,2006
Preparing for a pandemic requires the leveraging of all instruments of national power, and coordinated
action by all segments of government and society.
In the last 300 years, the world has experienced 10 influenza pandemics,
…three in the last century.
* Source: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic/keyfacts.htm
† Source: Homeland Security Council, National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza, November 2005
Pandemics Do Happen!
H1
H1H3
H2
H7*
H5*
H9*
1918Spanish
Influenza H1N1
1957Asian
Influenza H2N2
1968Hong Kong
Influenza H3N2
1980
1997
1915
*Avian Flu
2003 2004
1977
1996
2002
1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
1998
19992003
The Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1919
25-30 percent of the world’s population fell ill
500,000 deaths in the US
We do not know whether the H5N1 influenza virus in birds will be the virus that sets off a pandemic. It is still primarily a disease among animals not people. But the signs are worrisome, and we must be prepared.
Bruce Gellin, M.D.DirectorNational Vaccine Program OfficeUS Department of Health and Human Services
So far, there is no sustained human-to-human transmission of H5N1
influenza…..but we must prepare.
Will a novel influenza virus causing a pandemic present next month or 10 years from now?
…a newly emerging influenza virus can wreak catastrophic damage worldwide in a matter of months.
Anthony S. Fauci, M.D.Director, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
….an infection carried by one person can be transmitted to tens or hundreds of others. For this reason, individual action is perhaps the most important element of pandemic preparedness and response.
Issues for the localities
• Coordination• Working closely with:
– Local DOH
– Business
– Schools
– State and other localities
– Employees and families
– Public safety
– Infrastructure / utilities
– Legal Isolation Quarantine appeals
Issues for the localities
• Human Resources– Decreased staffing
• Staying home to care for family
• Operating with 30% loss in workforce
• Changes in minimum staffing to keep operational– ie medic unit with one EMT-I and one EMT
• Utilizing those who returned to work, post illness
• Vaccination /Antiviral distribution
• Employees and families
Fairfax DOH First Responders Working Group
• Part of the Fairfax County Health Department Pandemic planning group.
Mission:
• Develop and implement a comprehensive plan of action involving all public safety agencies in an effort to operate effectively and cooperatively with other stakeholders as it relates Pandemic Flu both locally and regionally.
First Responders Working Group
• Tasks identified– Education internal & external
• IB, handouts on front line equipment
• Cable, AM advisory radio
– Staffing– Behavioral Health– Family Issues/ Sick leave
First Responders Working Group
• Tasks identified:– Post exposure – Hospitals /Reroute/ Surge capacity
• Fever centers • Non-transport criteria or transport to alternative sites
– Risk Management workers comp.– Isolation / quarantine– Cache of PPE in stock and vendor availability
• 6-8 week supply
NCR October 2006 PanFlu FE
• Participants:– DPH
– Hospitals
– Emergency Mgt.
– Transportation
– Public Safety Fire & EMS
– State Police, Local Law Enforcement
– National Guard
– Federal Partners
Estimates & Assumptions
• Duration of Pandemic 1-1.5 years
• Duration of epidemic in community 8 weeks, will come in waves
• Illness rate 25 to 30 %
• 50% will seek medical care
• Average hospital stay 7-10 days.