8/3/2019 Nov Dec Trendlines http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/nov-dec-trendlines 1/28 Perspectives on Utah’s Econom November/December 201 Department of Workforce Services Fun, Beauty & Culture Support Economic Growth Extended Mass Lay Statistis in Utah Insider News: There's Mre Hiring Ging n Than Yu Might Think Demgraphis, the Unemplyed, and the REcESSIoN: Wh gt hit hardest by unemplyment during the reessin? Prfling the Unemplyed in Utah's Reessi C e n s u s F a C t o id s P g . 14
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The Great Recession has taken its toll upon Utah’seconomy. Job counts are rebounding across the statebut still remain below their peak level prior to the
recession. Utah is starting to add jobs back to its rolls, withmany counties seeing employment increasing. But severalcounties are noted as having multiple years of employmentdeclines that have not yet reversed themselves.
These are mostly rural counties and include Box Elder,Carbon, Emery, Iron, Juab, Morgan, Piute, Rich, Sanpete,Washington, and Weber. Some of these counties look liketheir employment levels have bottomed out—they just
haven’t started to rebound yet. Others look like they arestill trending downward.
These less fortunate counties include Box Elder, Iron, Juab,Piute, Rich, and Sanpete counties. Box Elder has beenimpacted by manufacturing losses, including the closure of La-Z Boy and the cutbacks at ATK. Box Elder employmentis down 16 percent since 2008. Carbon County’s fortunesare generally tied to the coal mining industry, and this iswhere the slide lies. It is not drastic—down 2 percent—butit is enough to note.
Juab County’s employment is down 6 percent since2008, with most of it being traced to construction andhealthcare. Piute is such a small county that it doesn’t takemuch for its numbers to fall. Yet employment is down 18percent since 2008, and this is traced to trucking and retailtrade.
Rich County is a tourism-dependent county, relying uponsummertime tourism and building expansion of cabinsand summer homes. Both of these were impacted by therecession, so construction and leisure and hospitalitydeclines account for Rich County’s 17-percent job losssince 2008.
One of the larger rural economies in decline is Sanpete
County. Down 11 percent since 2008, its woes are tracedto manufacturing and construction.
he recent recession was not an equal opportunity“un-employer.” Certain demographic groups elt
the economic pain worse than others. The recentBureau o Labor Statistics release o its Geographic Profleo Employment and Unemployment provides some insightsto the demographics o Utah’s unemployed.
How low can you go?Comparing unemployment statistics or 2007 and 2010,contrasts the year with the lowest unemployment rateso the recent business cycle to the year with the highestrates. In 2007, Utah’s unemployment rate measured a
mere 2.6 percent—the lowest joblessness o the postWWII era. In act, or many employers the rate was too
low. Labor seemed scarce and, ollowing those old lawso supply and demand, wages took a decided hike.
Almost every demographic group managed a lowunemployment rate in 2007. Women, men, whites,Latinos, and age groups older than 24 all showed joblessshares near (or below) 3 percent. Only young people—those 24 years and younger—displayed signicant levelso unemployment. Teenagers were worst o with ajobless rate o 11 percent.
Demographics, the Unemployed, and the
Recession:
Who got hit hardest
by unemployment during the recession?Some felt the painworse than others.
Quick ChangeFast orward three years. By 2010,Utah’s annual unemployment ratehad basically tripled to reach 8.2
percent. Following the typical pattern,men (who dominate employment inindustries most aected by recession)experienced worse joblessness thandid women. In 2007, women showed ahigher unemployment rate than men.In 2010, joblessness or Utah menmeasured 9.5 percent, while women’srate had increased to just 6.6 percent.The Hispanic/Latino labor orce alsoelt the pangs o unemployment to agreater degree than did whites. Latinolabor orce saw their joblessness morethan quadruple rom 3.1 percent to12.6 percent in just three years.
Statistically, the higher the age group,the lower the level o unemployment.That relationship generally holdstrue in boom and bust. However,during the recession, while teenagers’unemployment rate doubled, therate or 55-64 year-olds almosttripled. Nevertheless, unemploymentor teenagers measured 21 percentcompared to 5 percent or the 55-64year-olds.
Fair ShareIn 2007, women and men maintainedequal shares o the number o unemployed persons. However, by2010, men made up 65 percent o thejobless and women’s share dropped to35 percent. Also, as more older workerselt the sting o “no job” during thedownturn, 16-19 year-olds saw theirshare o the unemployed drop rom20 to 13 percent. Those aged 25-34accounted or the largest proportion
(about one-ourth) during both goodtimes and bad. The recession hitworkers 35-44 particularly hard. Theirshare o unemployed workers increasedrom 14 percent in 2007 to 18 percentin 2011.
For more inormation about thedemographics o Utah’s unemployed, seehttp://www.bls.gov/gps/
Employee layos are an unortunatereality o any ree market economy.Even in healthy economic climates,
some rms exit the market and no longerneed the labor they once employed.During a recession, layos can be moreprevalent as a decrease in the demandor goods and services spur someestablishments to reduce their workorce.The state o Utah, in cooperation with theBureau o Labor Statistics, conducts theMass Layo Statistics (MLS) program toidentiy and characterize signicant jobcutback events using data rom the stateunemployment insurance database.
Unemployment insurance plays a rolein identiying layos in that when aworker is laid o, that worker will usuallyqualiy or unemployment insurancebenets. When the worker les or thesebenets, their claim inormation isstored and the MLS program is able tocompile it with other claims led against
the same employer. When these claimssum to more than 50 over a consecutive5-week period, and the laid-o workersare separated rom their jobs or morethan 30 days, the respective employeris considered to have had an extendedmass layo.
While layos and unemployment insur-ance claims are an economic phenom-
enon common to most labor markets,extended mass layos are not. In act,Utah’s mass layo counts are so ewthat to aggregate and analyze them on amonthly, quarterly or even annual basisyields little insight. As such, the analysisherein sums mass layos and the asso-ciated initial unemployment insuranceclaims by industry, rom the beginningo the most recent recession (the ourthquarter o 2007) to the secondquarter o 2011. Note that theevent and claim counts in thetable do not sum to the totalbecause the total includesdata that must be sup-pressed at an industry level.Counts are suppressedwhen they are so small thatthe identity o the employermay be deduced. Also, keepin mind that the 29,183 totalinitial unemployment insur-ance claims depicted in the ta-
ble only represent those claimsthat corresponded to a masslayo. By contrast, there werenearly 21,000 initial claimsled in January o 2009 alone.
The most telling inormationin the table belongs to theconstruction and manuacturingindustries. Together, these industries
accounted or almost 60 percent o the extendedmass layos and almost 70 percent o the relatedunemployment insurance claims during the periodstudied. These statistics coincide with the signicantjob losses that the two industries experienced duringthe recession.
Beyond the construction and manuacturing industries,mass layos in Utah were relatively ew, even during theslumping economic environment that was analyzed. Toview mass layo statistic data under a broader scope, goto www.bls.govb/mls to see how state data is combined toproduce national mass layo estimates.
Extended Mass Layoffs in Utah:4th Quarter 2007 – 2nd Quarter 2011
The construction and
manufacturing industries
accounted for almost 60 percent
of the extended mass layoffs.
Industry Layoff Events Initial Claims
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 5 505
In recessionary times individuals oten see the waytoward economic security down a path o moretraining. With the recent perception o not being
able to secure a better lie, workers look at their options.Continued job search in a highly competitive job marketis one option. But i the job seeker perceives their currentjob has limited upward mobility and stagnant earnings,another option is the opportunity provided by gettingmore training and/or a degree which may lead to betterpotential or the good lie.
We oten hear that when the economy “tanks” peoplego back to school. New entrants in the world o workmay have had higher education as a goal all along. Also,current workers losing their jobs or having their hourscurtailed also see the light and may decide to pursuemore training. These individuals perceive that theiropportunities are limited and see more training as aviable option.
A paradox presents itsel. How do current marginallyemployed or unemployed persons aord to go back toschool i they have no job and thus no way o payingor more education? One answer is through educationalloans, grants, or scholarships. Funding may also includethe use o savings and/or help rom amily. Regardless o the source o resources or education the desire or moreeducation is still there. Financing education is a veryimportant topic but the real thrust o this article is tolook at the relationship o economic activity, or the lacko it, and the desire o workers to seek more education.
What’s the evidence that recessions drive people to seekmore training? One important indicator is to look at
Did the Recession Drive People to
Education?Higher
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enrollment in our post-secondary education institutions.Enrollment numbers rom the Utah System o HigherEducation portrayed in the graph show average yearlyull-time equivalent enrollment at Utah’s public collegesand universities.*
In the graph are counts o enrollment or vocational,lower division, upper division, basic graduate, advancedgraduate, and the total. The time periods cover the schoolyears 2001-2002 through 2009-2010. Enrollment early in
the decade show what happened during the “DotCom”recession. Student counts peaked in 2003-2004 schoolyear with 105,500 persons enrolled at the colleges anduniversities. Enrollments dropped to the 98,800 level inthe 2006-2007 school year. These mid-decade years wereUtah’s boom period where the perception in the marketwas that jobs were plentiul and workers didn’t needmore training to get a job. Unemployment rates werenear-record lows as the economy was rapidly expanding.
Then came the Great Recession, beginning in Decembero 2007. As the recession deepened through 2008,enrollments increased rom 98,800 to 103,600 (2008-2009 school year). Enrollment increased by 1.1 percent
during the 2007-2008 school year to 3.7 percent theollowing year (2008-2009) then dramatically rose by10.1 percent by the 2009-2010 school year. In actualnumbers, enrollments increased rom 99,900 to 114,100.In the last two years, thousands o students enrolledwith the largest increase being or those lower division(entering) students. The overall increase or all levelso education was 10.1 percent but enrollment by lowerdivision students jumped by 14.4 percent. All levels o educational (vocational, lower division, etc.) enrollment
increased between 2008-2009 and 2009-2010. Do manyindividuals go back to school when the economy tanks?The numbers, at least in this cursory look, tend tosupport that notion. Increases in enrollment can’t allbe attributed to economic orces. Utah’s demographicand societal orces are at play here also. Notable is theyounger age o its population and the emphasis placedon education in Utah. These orces aside, it does appearthat a depressed economy does have a signicant eecton enrollment.
*University o Utah, Utah State University, Weber StateUniversity, Southern Utah University, Snow College, DixieState College, Utah State University – College o EasternUtah, Utah Valley University, and Salt Lake Community College. Not included is data rom private colleges and universities.
Utah Higher EduationEnrollments
by class Standing
Shool Years
2001-2002 to 2009-2010
Source: Utah System o Higher Education (USHE), Data Book 2011, Tab C - Enrollments.
n recent years, economists and data watchers have been able toincorporate a number o new data sources to their arsenal o economic
indicators. One o the most exciting additions, in my opinion, is theLocal Employment Dynamics (LED) inormation. LED data is a melding o available census, survey, and administrative records which provides newinsights on the economy and, in particular, the labor market.
It is fuid out there. . .I’ve been in this business a long time, and the “new hire” data producedby the LED program has truly opened my eyes to the fuidity o the labormarket. A “hire” in this case simply represents a person on a company’spayroll in the current quarter that wasn’t on the payroll in the previousquarter. Typically, we analyze only the net changes—are there more orewer jobs now than in a previous time period? But obviously, individualsare constantly leaving jobs, nding jobs, and entering the labor market.
The “new hire” data makes this act abundantly clear.
Lots o hiring going onGuess how many people were hired during the worst quarter o the “GreatRecession” in Utah? Go ahead and take a guess. Well, you most likelyguesstimated low. Almost 127,000 Utah workers ound a new job in therst quarter o 2010. In other words, almost 12 percent o the jobs trackedby the LED system were held by a “new hire.” And, that’s the worst quarter.These gures appear even more remarkable over time. New hires averagedmore than 200,000 per quarter between 2007 and 2010.
Seasonal PatternsThere is a very seasonal pattern to newhires. The rst quarter o a year (January
to March) shows the lowest hiring levelso the year, while the third quarter (Julyto September) always shows the highestannual new hires (although secondquarter isn’t ar behind). On the otherhand, despite increased retail hiring orthe holiday season, the nal quarterranks third in terms o new hires.
Where’s the trend?A quick and dirty way to track the trendsin the new hire data is to use a our-quarter moving average. As you can see
in the accompanying chart, new hiresollow the same trajectory as the labormarket in general. Hires surged in 2005and 2006, peaked in 2007, plummetedin 2008, bottomed out in 2009, and arenow on the uptick.
Other Stu Young adults are most likely to benew hires (no surprise to parents with
children that age). Individuals between19 and 24 account or roughly 30percent o new hires. And that sharehasn’t changed much over time. Slightly
older adults—24 to 35—typically areresponsible or one-ourth o new hires.However, this age group’s share o hireshas slowly been increasing. In the lasttwo years, they have made up closer to27 percent o new hires. Older adultsare ar less likely to be taking up newemployment. Those between the ageso 55 and 64 typically account or onlyabout 4 percent o new hires. But, theirshare o new hires has also increasedsomewhat in the past several years (to5 percent)—undoubtedly a secondary
result o the recession.
Finally, new hires are slightly morelikely to be male (about 55 percent)than emale. That’s not signicantlydierent rom their share o the labororce. And, not surprisingly, most newhires are in the largest counties—SaltLake, Utah, Weber, and Davis. Together,they steadily generate 70 percent o newhires.
For more information and data from the LED program:
Not all geographic areas in Utah are thesame. Urban and rural distinctionsabound and industry makeup plays a
part. Thereore, dierent usage patterns arisein lings or unemployment insurance claimsDierent parts o the state show dierent levelo usage, and each area has its own distinctexplanation.
For example, a high amount o unemployment
insurance activity suraces in eastern Utahspecically Uintah County. This is an economyheavily dependent on natural gas productionThere was a period covering most o 2009 inwhich energy prices collapsed and employmenlevels ell o noticeably. As a result, this countyexperienced a pocket o high unemploymeninsurance usage (this includes Roosevelt inDuchesne County or the same reason).
Another area with high usage is WashingtonCounty in the state’s southwest cornerThis area was hit hard by the housing pricebubble. Its sunbelt eatures and proximity toLas Vegas drove in-migration and resultanhousing speculation. The end result was asharply collapsing construction sector andan unprecedented three-year period o jobloss. Claims counts soared in this region, anevent that is much out o the ordinary orthis normally high-fying economy. Theseevents also impacted Iron County, WashingtonCounty’s neighbor to the north.
Grand County—the Moab area—is anothethat stands out with high unemploymeninsurance usage. However, this may not be as
noticeably tied to a signicant deterioration othe local economy as seen in Washington andUintah counties. Instead, it looks like normausage, although the recession probably addedsome infuence. Moab is an economy heavilydependent upon tourism, particularly nonwinter tourism. As such, Grand County exhibita seasonal pattern o high unemploymeninsurance usage. Tourism-dependent workerwork long enough to maintain unemploymeninsurance eligibility, then use this system to
Unemployment Insurance Usage
During the
RecessionNOTE: The Utah Department o
Workorce Services administers
Utah’s unemployment insurance
program. All claimant activity is recorded and stored by this
department. Individual records
can be aggregated to produce
cumulative statistical profles o
those fling or unemployment.
Claimants were quantifed across
the period October 2008 through
November 2010 statewide.
This is a representative window
in which the immediate and
lingering consequences o the
Great Recession had their
strongest impact upon the
unemployment insurance system.
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A high amount o unemploymentinsurance activity
suraces in easternUtah, specically UintahCounty.
Source: Utah Department o Workorce Services.
White space assumes no initial claims
Census Tracts
Initial Claim Counts
2,001 - 3,000
1,001 - 2,000
601 - 1,000
301 - 600
13 - 300
The WashingtonCounty area was hithard by the housingprice bubble.
bridge the winter down time. Nearly47 percent o all claimants workedin the tourism industry (whereasthe statewide average is only 7
percent). Because o this, it is dicultto separate the “normal” usage o the system rom that caused by therecession.
The same usage and diculty inassessment can also be attributed tothe Summit County area, up and overthe mountains east o Salt Lake City.This county is the home to threemajor ski resorts. It is both a tourism-dependent economy and a seasonalone. Thereore, it also has seasonalhigh usage, and again, it is dicultto separate the normal amount romany recession-generated usage. Fortypercent o claimants come romtourism.
Claims counts throughout theremainder o the state, including themetropolitan areas, largely ollowpopulation density proles.
Salt Lake is the state’s most populouscounty. Thereore it should, and does,have the most initial unemployment
claims. Mapping county initialunemployment claims by censustracts does show patterns o high andlow usage across the metropolitanarea. There seems to be a patterno low usage in the higher-incomeeastern tracts, and higher usagethroughout the rest o the valley.
The lowest quantity o claims is inthe census tracts running along theoothills o the Wasatch Mountainsbordering the valley’s east side,including the avenues east o 1300
East between I-80 (south) and theUniversity o Utah (north). The resto the valley experienced higherclaim counts, with most areas aroundSouth Salt Lake City southwardtoward Murray, neighborhoods inWest Valley City, Kearns, Magna, andthe ar southwest corner o the valley.
Evaluating the heavy usage in thesouthwest corner o the valley
presents something o a challenge.It is probably explained by theassumption that young workershave higher vulnerability to layos,
as businesses look to retain moreexperienced and tenured workers.Younger workers are cheaper toreplace.
As the decade o the 2000s emerged,new amilies and workers lookedor available land and housing. Formany, their jobs are in Salt LakeCounty but the workers themselveslocated urther into the county’sringes looking or lower housingcosts. The real estate people label this
“drive till you qualiy.” This produced
new communities where beore therewas only open land. This not onlyimpacted southern Salt Lake Countyin its reach, but also northern UtahCounty and eastern Tooele County
(to the west).
These are areas now populated bynew homes and in many cases,young workers. These areas, on amap, also jump out with the mostinitial unemployment insurancelers. Logic ollows that i youngworkers are the ones vulnerable tolayos, then claims should be highin these areas.
That theory I believe holds weight.But unortunately there is anotheractor playing out beside this, and itprobably produces an overstatement
o the amount o claims in theseareas.
These census tracts are 2000 Censustracts, built upon 2000 populationlevels. Population has growndisproportionately in all o the justmentioned areas since then. Newcensus tracts rom the 2010 Censusare now available (but not quantiedas such or this article). In these areas,where in 2000 there may have beenone census tract there are now asmany as six new tracts.
The large tract in Salt Lake County’ssouthwest corner in the 2000 Censusis now three separate tracts in the2010 Census. The most dramaticchange may be the 2000 Censustract that surrounds the northwestcorner o Utah Lake in Utah County(making up parts o Lehi and the newtown o Saratoga Springs). That onetract is now divided into six tractsin the 2010 Census. Its neighboringtract to the west surrounding the
city o Eagle Mountain is now vetracts in the 2010 Census. The large2000 Census tract in eastern TooeleCounty is now our separate tracts inthe 2010 Census.
There is no doubt that the largenumber o claims in these areas are aunction o the initial unemploymentinsurance claimants being distributedby the 2000 Census boundaries,not 2010 boundaries. As theunemployment insurance data wasquantied and located in census
tracts available at the time—2000Census tracts—this data cannot beredistributed.
Still, knowing the nature o thoseareas and the amount o youngworkers who inhabit them, it ishypothesized that they would stillbe areas o high claims distributioneven i quantied to 2010 Censusboundaries.
The southwest corner o
the Salt Lake Valley also
jumps out with the most
initial unemployment
insurance lers. I young
workers are the ones
vulnerable to layofs, then
claims should be high in
these areas.
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White space assumes no initial claims
Provo
Orem
Draper
WestJordan
Salt Lake City
Bountiful
Lehi
Census Tracts
Initial Claim Counts
2,001 - 3,000
1,001 - 2,000
601 - 1,000
301 - 600
13 - 300
Source: Utah Department o Workorce Services.
Utah Initial UnemploymentClaims by Census Tract
October 2008—November 2010Close up of Wasatch Front
Otentimes, they have earth moving equipment,tractors, and such to help them antasize about changingthe ace o the planet. Perhaps this is where it starts orsome operating engineers, those olks who make a livingoperating the equipment that clears and grades the landto prepare or construction o roads, buildings, bridges,runways, dams, and levees, to name a ew.
Since one cannot list on a resume the time spent
playing in a sandbox, how does one make the earthmoving antasy a reality? Operating engineers aretrained through ormal apprenticeships, on-the-jobtraining, paid training programs, or a combination o these. An apprenticeship consists o at least three years,or 6,000 hours, o paid on-the-job experience togetherwith 144 hours o classroom instruction each year.Since apprentices learn to operate a wide variety o equipment, they may have better job opportunities. Oneresource or apprenticeship programs is administered bythe International Union o Operating Engineers, which
reports over 400,000 members, 1,000 instructors andhundreds o acilities across North America.
Once the training has taken place, the real work begins.Operators run the machinery in all types o weatherconditions and at all hours, oten inremote locations. In addition, theymust have a working knowledge o
the machinery when it comes timeor repairs. It is part o their jobdescription to keep the job progressingand i that means time out or repairs,so be it. The job setting is oten noisy,dusty, greasy, muddy, and can bedangerous. It is important to ollowsaety guidelines when perormingthis job.
With the introduction o glob-al positioning system (GPS)technology, which helps
with grading and levelingactivities, and computer-ized controls and im-proved hydraulics, theindustry is more tech-nologically advancedthan in past years. Theseimprovements require ur-ther training and a basic un-derstanding o electronics andhydraulics.
ccp | b cc, c
M o v i n g t
h e O p e r a t i n g E n g i
n e e r s :
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About 63 percent o construction equipment operatorswork in the construction industry. Many equipmentoperators work in heavy and civil engineering construction,building highways, bridges, or railroads. About 16percent o construction equipment operators work inlocal government. Others—mostly grader, bulldozer, and
scraper operators—work in mining. Some also work ormanuacturing or utility companies. About 3 percent o construction equipment operators are sel-employed.
This occupation is expected to experience slower thanaverage growth, nevertheless, there should be a highvolume o annual job openings. Business expansion,
rather than the need or replacements, will provide themajority o job openings in the coming decade. In theshort term, employment may be limited but shouldimprove in concert with the economy.
For those o us who have not orgotten our sandbox
days, a ormer encing contractor in Las Vegas hasopened a business called Dig This, where, or a ee,visitors can operate a wide variety o constructionequipment in a ive-acre theme park. According toAARP magazine, about hal the visitors to Dig Thisare women, proo that gender is no barrier to sandboxdreams o becoming operating engineers.
UTAH Occupational Wages—Published June 2011(data from May 2010) for Operating Engineers and Other
Construction Equipment Operators
Area NameHourly
InexperiencedHourly Median
Annual
InexperiencedAnnual Median Training Level
Box Elder and Rich $15.61 $18.43 $32,460 $38,330Moderate-term OJT (1-12
months)
Central $14.33 $17.48 $29,810 $36,360 Moderate-term OJT (1-12months)
The leisure and hospitalityindustry provides a signicantnumber o jobs, wages, and
economic activity within Utah.Not only do Utahns enjoy the greatbeauty, diversity, and year round
recreation, travel, and tourismactivities within the state, but peoplefock here rom all parts o the globe.The visitors to our ski resorts, nationaland state parks, historical sites, andestivals bring with them the incomethat sustains the economic vitality o many communities across the state.
Ten counties in Utah derivemore than 15 percent o theirnonarm jobs rom the leisure andhospitality industry (see Chart).For these counties, and others in
the nonmetropolitan parts o thestate, recreation, travel, and tourismactivities are main economic drivers.
The great recession began ociallyin the U. S. in December 2007 andlasted through June 2009, at whichpoint production o goods andservices began to grow once again.December 2007 coincides with peaknonarm jobs in the nation and inUtah. On a seasonally adjusted basisthere were 1,264,500 nonarm jobs
in Utah in December 2007, droppingby 91,500 jobs or 7.2 percent, to1,173,000 by February 2010. Noticethat when production began toclimb once again in July o 2009,jobs in Utah continued to declineand did not began to growth untilspring o 2010.
The leisure and hospitality industryared somewhat better during the
Support Economic GrowthFun, Beauty & Culture
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recession, shedding ewer jobsand recovering aster. Again on aseasonally adjusted basis, leisureand hospitality employment withinUtah peaked in December 2007with 115,900 jobs. This industry
hit bottom in December 2009, at109,400 jobs, a reduction rom thepeak o 5.6 percent. By August 2011,the leisure and hospitality industrywas 0.9 percent or 1,000 jobs belowthe December 2007 record.
Total nonarm jobs in Utah remain3.7 percent below the pre-recessionpeak. The state will need anadditional 46,500 jobs to return tothe pre-recession level (see chart).
The leisure and hospitality industry
gives important support to overalleconomic activity in Utah, helpingto pull the State out o the recessionand into a brighter economic uture.The high quality o lie enjoyed byresidents and visitors alike is closelytied to this industry.
Percent of Nonfarm Jobs in Leisure and Hospitality
by County • Average for the Year Ending in March 2011
Source: Utah Department o Workorce Services.
Percent of Peak Employment • December 2007Jan. 2006 through August 2011 (Seasonally Adjusted Data)
Statistically Signicant Employment ChangesSelected states • August 2010-August 2011 • seasonally adjuste
Over the year to August 2011, 25 states experienced statistically signicant changesin nonarm payroll employment, 24 o which were increases. The largest increase occurred in Texas(+253,200), ollowed by Caliornia (+171,300), New York (+83,400), Ohio (+80,300), and Michigan(+79,800). The only state with an over-the-year statistically signicant decrease in employment wasGeorgia (−29,500).
The largest over-the-year percentage increase in nonarm payroll employment occurred in NorthDakota (+5.0 percent), ollowed by Utah and Wyoming (+3.0 percent each).
Source: U.S. Bureau o Labor Statistics.
253,200
171,300
83,400
80,300
79,800
56,600
48,000
44,300
42,700
42,400
41,500
39,700
35,200
31,600
24,700
23,200
21,900
20,000
18,900
16,400
10,700
8,400
8,400
5,800
-29,500
Texas (2.4%)
California (1.2%)
New York (1.0%)
Ohio (1.6%)
Michigan (2.1%)
Pennsylvania (1.0%)
Massachusetts (1.5%)
Minnesota (1.7%)
Oklahoma (2.8%)
Illinois (0.8%)
Washington (1.5%)
Arizona (1.7%)
Utah (3.0%)
Louisiana (1.7%)
Wisconsin (0.9%)
Oregon (1.5%)
Kentucky (1.2%)
Iowa (1.4%)
North Dakota (5.0%)
Nebraska (1.7%)
New Hampshire (1.7%)
Hawaii (1.4%)
Wyoming (3.0%)
Vermont (2.0%)
Georgia (-0.8%)
Over-the-year change in payroll jobs
Did you know?Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that Utah is
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w w | b b , p c c
Source: Utah Dept. o Workorce Services, Unemployment Insurance Division.
Employers subject to the Employment SecurityAct are required to pay contributions (unem-ployment taxes) to the Unemployment Insur-
ance (UI) Compensation Trust Fund. This money isused to pay unemployment insurance benets toindividuals who become unemployed, through noault o their own.
An employer’s overall tax rate is based on a statutory
ormula that actors in several components to insurethe solvency o the UI Trust Fund and to equitablyadjust tax rates on employers that are responsibleor generating these costs. The higher benet costsassociated with the economic downturn, haveresulted in a signicant decline in Utah’s UI TrustFund balance over the past two years.
Thirty-two states’ trust unds have becomeinsolvent during the last three years and they havebeen orced to borrow over $46 billion rom the
Federal government or issue state bonds. Utah’scurrent Trust Fund balance (as o August 24, 2011)is $360 million (see chart below).
Based on new projections, employment trends, andimproved unemployment rates, it is anticipatedUtah’s UI Trust Fund will remain solvent (see chartbelow), however it may go as low as $200 million.
The Department o Workorce Services (DWS) hasbeen proactive with multiple initiatives to helpensure the long-term solvency o Utah’s TrustFund, implementing enhanced integrity and re-employment initiatives.
DWS will continue to closely monitor the TrustFund and may consider recommending minorchanges to the tax rate ormulas to ensure long-term solvency. DWS’ goal is to keep the UI TrustFund solvent.
I you like volatility, you’ll like the construction industry
employment data. Obviously, this industry remainsextremely prone to the vicissitudes o the business
cycle—the most recent example is just barely behind us.Employment ell rom a high o almost 110,000 in August2007 to a low o 59,200 in February 2010. Fortunately,survey data suggests that the industry has nally started toimprove with a year-to-year increase o 0.6 percent in August2011. In 2010, construction employment accounted or 5.5percent o Utah’s total nonarm jobs. In 2007, its share o employment measured more than 8 percent o the total.However, it’s important to note that the housing bubbleand speculation “over-infated” construction employmentduring the recent boom years.
In addition, construction employment (like the weather) isvery seasonal in nature. (Note the chart that accompaniesthis article.) Employment is highest in the summer monthsand lowest in the coldest months. That means a notablenumber o construction workers are unemployed in thecourse o even a very good economic year.
In 2010, the average monthly wage or construction workerswas $3,500 compared to $3,250 or all employment.However, seven major industries (including manuacturing)pay higher wages on average than construction.