Notice of Faculty Disclosure - Amazon S3s3.amazonaws.com/ascpcdn/static/adasp/assets/2014... · AMA Physician Age Distribution 25–34 45–54 55–64 65–74 75 +35–44 Male Female
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Pathologist Workforce Study
Stanley J Robboy, MDImmediate Past President – CAPVice Chair of Pathology - Duke
• Imminent pathologist shortage: more pathologists will retire than residencies will graduate.
• Without significant changes in pathologist training, patients and their clinicians will experience potentially disruptive changes in current patterns of practice
Pathologists are older
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
35–4425–34 45–54 55–64 65–74 75 +
Male
Female
Age & Gender Distribution, 2009
Age Group
Num
ber o
f Pa
thol
ogist
s
5%
21%
33%30%
10%
2%
3
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
AMA Physician Age Distribution
35–4425–34 45–54 55–64 65–74 75 +
Male
Female
Pathologists vs All MDs
Age Group
Num
ber o
f Pa
thol
ogist
s
5%
21%
33%30%
10%
2%
AMA - Physician Characteristics and Distribution in the US, 2010 Edition
We Intend to segment the supply of pathologists by services in the following manner:1. Calculate the total supply of FTE hours in the base year (Input from Phase I model)2. Distribute the total FTE hour supply into various services based on the % of time spent by pathologists in various services
from the Case for Change survey3. Convert FTE hours spent in various services into FTE count of pathologists across various services
Research
27%4% 277
Consults to Physicians
60%
4% 613
Teaching
50%
6% 517
Medical Administration
50%
7% 512
Clinical Pathology Interpretation
65%
7% 671
Laboratory Medical Direction
71%
14% 728
Anatomic Pathology Services
89%56%
911
90%
50%
0%
% of Pathologists Involved% of Time Spent
241974
Pulmonary
2%0%
Autopsy/Forensic
2%1%
Hematology
7%2%
GynecologicalPap SmearCytology
46%
3% 474
Immunohisto-chemistry
73%
4%747
GenitourinaryPathology
72%
5%738
OtherGynecological
Pathology
68%
6%704
Dermato-pathology
66%
6% 674
BreastPathology
74%
7%763
GastrointestinalPathology
78%
13% 797
% o
f Tim
e Sp
ent a
nd
% o
f Res
pond
ents
90%
50%
0%
Sum of % of time spent across various services is not 100%, as services
insignificant time spent are not listed here
Segment Supply of Pathologists by ServicesSegmentation of Current Supply
9
College of American Pathologists
Expected Change in Time Spent Across Services Young1 vs. All Pathologists (n=1028)
Medical Administration
Laboratory Medical Direction
Consult to Physicians
Clinical Pathology Interpretation
ResearchAnatomic Pathology Services
TeachingServices
Increase
Remain at current level
Decrease
Expected Change in Time Spent
Larger percentage of young pathologists1 are expected to increase the time they spend in Lab Medical Direction, Medical Administration and Teaching
32%31%44%34%
18%20%35%
20%46%
26% 25% 25%28% 28%
Young PathologistsOverall Pathologists
61%61%51%58% 68%66%56% 61%51% 59% 62% 55%62% 57%
2%3%3%6% 10%9%5% 14%0% 12% 6% 16%6% 14%
Overall: n=512Young: n=59
Overall: n=728Young: n=100
Overall: n=613Young: n=109
Overall: n=911Young: n=159
Overall: n=671Young: n=108
Overall: n=277Young: n=51
Overall: n=517Young: n=95
Note: 1 We have included pathologists below the age of 40 years in the category ‘young pathologists’
This data will enable us to understand how percentage of time spent across services is expected to change over time, for overall population and for the young pathologists
Segment Supply of Pathologists by ServicesExpected Increase in Supply Across Services (1/3)
In comparison to overall pathologist population, lower percentage of young pathologists1 feel that the time they spend in Gynecological Pap Smear Cytology would decrease
Expected Change in Time Spent Across AP Services: Young1 vs. All Pathologists (n=1028)We intend to analyze how the percentage of time spent across AP services is expected to change over time
Note: 1 We have included pathologists below the age of 40 years in the category ‘young pathologists’
Segment Supply of Pathologists by ServicesExpected Increase in Supply Across Services (2/3)
1. Important for pathology.Pathologists, if not participating, may lose service to other physicians
2.Significant patient interaction; brings pathologists closer to patientsWill lead to increased personalization even if pathologists are not involved in endoscopic procedures
M2B Prioritized ServicesCoordinated Care/Non-Coordinated Care Environment: Top Two Services
In Vivo MicroscopyIn Vivo Microscopy
FTEs Required: -30–400FTEs Required: -30–400
1.Science making advances rapidly 2.Demand for targeted drug therapy will
increase in the future driving demand for this service. Several groups now tailoring specific chemoRx regimens to specific genomes
3.If not embraced, pharmacists (?) and other physicians may pick up service
4.In coordinated care, highly proximate action where pathologists can demonstrate value
5.Significant patient interaction6.Helps establish role for pathologists in field of