(not pictured below) War by developed countries: State building: effective police and military Control war, but still do it WWI: rise of war aversion.

(not pictured below)

War by developed countries: State building: effective police and military Control war, but still do it WWI: rise of war aversion

Changing attitudes toward war

A prolonged peace favors the predominance of a mere commercial

spirit, and with it a debasing self-interest, cowardice, and effeminacy, and tends to

degrade the character of the nation.

--Immanuel Kant, 1790

War by developed countries since 1918:

World War IIColonial warCold warPolicing wars

Number of wars among developed states since 1945:

Longest period of peace on the Rhine since the second

century B.C.E., before the Cimbi and the Teutones appeared to challenge the armies of the consul Gaius Marius in the

Rhone Valley.

--Brad de Long

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

Civil war

Imperial and colonial war

International war

War, 1946-2003 (K. Gleditsch)

The data are for “wars," violent armed conflicts which result in at least 1000 battle deaths over the duration of the dispute for international wars, an average of at least 1000 battle deaths per year for imperial and colonial wars, and at least 1000 military and civilian battle-related deaths per year for civil wars.

Source: K. Gleditsch 2004.

2002Sudan

India (Kashmir)Nepal

ColombiaBurundi

2003Sudan

India (Kashmir)Nepal

LiberiaIraq

2004Sudan 2994

Chechnya 1141Nepal 1596

India (Kashmir) 1075Uganda 1600

Iraq

Battle-related deaths under 1000 per year:

armed conflict

riots

terrorism

brutal policing

criminal predation

Civilian deaths when there are less than 1000 battle-related deaths in a year:

genocidemass killing

massacreethnic cleansing

terrorismcriminal predation

MALVINAS ISLANDS

FALKLAND ISLANDS

PEOPLE 1,900SHEEP 600,000COST TO UK THROUGH 1989 $3,000,000 PER FALKLANDER OR $5 PER SHEEPUK TROOPS, 1999 2,000

Frequency of Armed Conflict, 1946-2001

The data are for "armed conflicts," contested incompatibilities that concern government or territory or both where the use of armed force between two parties (one of which must be the government of a state) results in at least 25 battle-related deaths per year.

Source: N.P. Gleditsch et al. 2002.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Civil War, 1945-2002 (Fearon and Laitin)

The data are for “civil wars," violent armed conflicts which result in at least 1000 battle deaths over the duration of the dispute with an average of at least 100 deaths per year.

Source: Fearon and Laitin 2003, 2004 .

27 civil wars active in 2002, Fearon and Laitin START END DUR DEATHS

BURMA 1948 . 55 CPB, Karens, etc. 220INDIA 1952 . 51 N.East rebels 375COLOMBIA 1963 . 40 FARC, ELN, etc 1500CHAD 1965 . 38 FROLINAT, various ... 418INDONESIA 1965 . 38 OPM (West Papua) ?PHILIPPINES 1968 . 35 MNLF, MILF 150ANGOLA 1975 2002 28 UNITA 400SRI LANKA 1983 2002 20 LTTE, etc. 20SUDAN 1983 . 20 SPLA, etc. 2250TURKEY 1984 . 19 PKK 50INDIA 1989 . 14 Kashmir 2250SENEGAL 1989 . 14 MFDC (Casamance) 3RWANDA 1990 . 13 RPF, genocide 59CHINA 1991 . 12 Xinjiang ?SOMALIA 1991 . 12 post-Barre war 100ALGERIA 1992 . 11 FIS 240ANGOLA 1992 . 11 FLEC (Cabinda) 175ETHIOPIA 1992 . 11 Oromo Lib. Front 1300BURUNDI 1993 . 10 Hutu groups v. govt 1000UGANDA 1993 . 10 LRA, West Nile, etc. 1032NEPAL 1997 . 6 CPN-M/UPF (Maoists) 2800CONGO 1998 . 5 RCD, etc v. govt 0INDONESIA 1999 . 4 GAM II (Aceh) 112RUSSIA 1999 . 4 Chechnya II 742ISRAEL 2000 . 3 2nd Intifada 990LIBERIA 2000 . 3 LURD 500IVORY COAST 2002 . 1 anti-Gbagbo 600

17287

Figure 3- 1: Number of Civil Wars per Year, 1960- 1999

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

Source: Tilly 2003, applying Paul Collier, World Bank data

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

International

Mixed types

Internal

Frequency of War, 1945-2000

The data are for "wars," organized violence between armed forces in which at least one side is composed of regular governmental troops. Both sides must have some degree of central direction, and there must be some continuity to armed operations. No casualty counts are included and some of the wars tabulated have resulted in only a handful of deaths.

Source: Gantzel and Schwinghammer 2000 with additional data from Burkhard Conrad.

Thugs as mercenaries:

Yugoslavia Rwanda Kosovo East Timor Zimbabwe Chechnya Kenya Sudan

Thugs as warlord bands:

Sierra Leone Congo Somalia Colombia Burma Liberia Caucasus Nigeria Angola Algeria Macedonia Afghanistan

Each dressed as if he had been cast as a thug by a movie director.

The atrocities in Bosnia were committed by young urban gangsters in expensive sunglasses.

Dangerous primitives

I II III

Number of bad guys killed by Rambo with his shirt on 1 12 33

Number of bad guys killed by Rambo with his shirt off 0 46 45

Total number of bad guys killed by Rambo no matter how attired 1 58 78

Number of bad guys killed by accomplices of Rambo acting on their own 0 10 17

Number of good guys killed by bad guys 0 1 37

Total number of people killed 1 69 132

Number of people killed per minute 0.01 0.72 1.30

Time at which the first person is killed 29'31" 33'34" 41'9"

Number of people killed per minute from that point until the end of the film (not including the ending credits)

0.02 1.18 2.39

Sequences in which Rambo is shot at without significant result 12 24 38

Number of sequences in which good guys are tortured by bad guys 2 5 7

Number of sex scenes 0 0 0

PanamaGulf WarSomalia

HaitiCroatiaBosnia

RwandaEast Timor

Sierra LeoneAfghanistan

Iraq

Ancient hatreds myth

Aversion to nation-building

Low tolerance for casualties

Lack of political gain from success

Bias against war and aggression

Syndrome?

Sri LankaIsrael

Iraq insurgencyChechnya

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

Civil war

Imperial and colonial war

International war

Effective government

NOTICERS: Gwynne Dyer

www.gwynnedyer.com

United Nations10 stories the world should hear more about: The Peacekeeping Paradox, May 2004 www.un.org/events/tenstories

PRIO Gregg Easterbrook

New Republic forthcoming

I’m not so naïve or simplistic to believe we

can eliminate war. We’re not going to

change human nature anytime soon.

Robert S. McNamara, in “Fog of War”

Testosterone

Evolution

Human nature

Aggressive drive

Thrill of war

Moral equivalent

Nationalism, religious extremism

Inequality

Lack of brotherhood, understanding

Lack of love, justice, harmony, good will, inner peace

Hate, selfishness, racism

Arms industry

Military ethos

Arms trade, proliferation

Nuclear weapons

Economic development: poverty-prosperity

International trade

Economic interdependence

International communication

Economic inequality

State system

Nation state

International organization

World government (vs. anarchy)

International law

Outlawing, renouncing war

Security communities

Democracy

RESPONSES:

It ain’t happeningOK, it’s happening, but I

still have faith in my fellow man

Yeah, but what about inequality in South Africa?

THE END