Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative

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Northern Eurasia earth science partnership initiative (NEESPI ),science plan overview

Pavel Ya. Groisman a,⁎, Sergey A. Bartalev b

The NEESPI Science Plan Development Teama National Climatic Data Center, Federal Building, NOAA 151 Patton Avenue, Asheville, NC, 28801, USA

b Space Research Institute RAS, Moscow, Russia

Received 28 April 2005; accepted 19 July 2006Available online 13 November 2006

Abstract

Northern Eurasia Earth System Partnership Initiative, NEESPI, was established to address the global change processesassociated with and/or originated within Northern Eurasia as well as to study the major socially-important processes within theregion. NEESPI began as a US–Russian initiative but has quickly broadened into a fully international program. Scientists from 11countries participated in preparing the NEESPI Science Plan. Current version of the Science Plan was released for public review onthe World Wide Web in summer 2004 and finalized in December 2004. This paper provides an Overview of the Plan and is based,mainly, on its Executive Summary. The Overview describes the Plan's science themes and key science questions, provides ajustification of the urgency studying Northern Eurasia from the global change prospective, and outlines research strategy and toolsto address NEESPI science questions, as well as projected deliverables of the Initiative.© 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative Overview

1. Introduction

Northern Eurasia embodies 19% of the Earth's landsurface and 59% of the terrestrial land cover north of40°N. It is a diverse region. Although covered by tundrain the North and semi-deserts and deserts in the South,Northern Eurasia contains a substantial fraction of theEarth's boreal forests (about 70%) and more than twothirds of the Earth's land that is underlain by permanentsoil ice or permafrost. Thus, Northern Eurasia must beregarded as a key region for studying global change

processes for these two biomes and their interactionswith the Global Earth System (Fig. 1).

Over the past 5000 yr, climatic changes in NorthernEurasia were among the most dramatic in the world(Fig. 2). Surface air temperature increases reported byinstrumental observations during the past century werethe greatest for the interior parts of Northern Eurasia;and model simulations of future climate changes showthat this region will have the most substantial changes inthe future. Current evidence strongly suggests signifi-cant and rapid changes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere,cryosphere, and land cover in Northern Eurasia, but itis important to accurately quantify these changes andthe particular processes that caused them. Taking into

Global and Planetary Change 56 (2007) 215–234www.elsevier.com/locate/gloplacha

⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 828271 4347; fax: +1 828 2714328.E-mail address: [email protected] (P.Y. Groisman).

0921-8181/$ - see front matter © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.027

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account the geographic scale and current rate ofchange, this situation must be viewed as unacceptable.It is critical to develop the ability to measure, monitor,and model the processes that will provide accuratefuture projections of climatic and environmental changesin this region because these changes have the potential toimpact the Global Earth System and the human society.

Northern Eurasia Earth System Partnership Initiative,NEESPI, was established to address the global changeprocesses associated with and/or originated withinNorthern Eurasia as well as to study the major socially-important processes within the region. NEESPI began asa US–Russian initiative but has quickly broadened into afully international program. Scientists from 11 countries

Fig. 1. NEESPI study area includes Former Soviet Union, Northern China, Mongolia, Fennoscandia, Eastern Europe and the coastal zone of thesecountries. Inserted map shows land cover for the most of the region. Source: European Commission, Joint Research Center (Bartalev et al., 2003;Bartholomé and Belward, 2005).

216 P.Y. Groisman, S.A. Bartalev / Global and Planetary Change 56 (2007) 215–234

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Fig. 2. Environmental and climatic changes in Northern Eurasia were very strong (A) in the past; (B) present and (C) are projected to be very strong inthe future. (A) Changes of the northern boundaries of forest and steppe zones along the 39°E during the past 13 k yr (Kozharinov and Puzachenko,2002, in press). (B) Mean annual temperature change 1965 to 2004 over the globe. Data source:Jones and Moberg, 2003. (Right) Changes in theNorthern Eurasia temperature during the past 120°yr. Data source:Lugina et al., 2004. (C). Major ecosystems distribution in central and easternSiberia (top) in the current climate and (bottom) the warmed climate that would be by 2090 derived from the HADCM3GGa1 run (Tchebakova et al.,2003). According to this scenario, the tundra and forest–tundra zones (currently ∼one third of the area) practically disappear while taiga zones(currently about two thirds of Siberia) move northward and reduce to ∼40% of the area.

217P.Y. Groisman, S.A. Bartalev / Global and Planetary Change 56 (2007) 215–234

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participated in preparing the NEESPI Science Plan(Appendix A) allowing us to develop a very inclusiveprogramof studies. The Planwas reviewed by anExternalInternational Review Panel (in 2003). After accountingfor the Panel recommendations and intense teamwork, thecurrent version of the Science Planwas released for publicreview on the World Wide Web in summer 2004 andfinalized in December 2004. This paper provides anOverview of the Plan and is based, mainly, on itsExecutive Summary. Therefore, the focus of this paper ison the NEESPI scientific rationale and science questions.It draws upon and complements existing and plannednational and international research programswith the goalof developing a multi-disciplinary, integrated understand-ing of this important region of the globe and how it relatesto the functioning of the Global Earth System. Additionaldetails about the NEESPI can be found at the NEESPI(2004) Web site at http://neespi.org.

2. Science themes and key science questions

The functioning of the Global Earth System can beconsidered as an interaction of three major types ofprocesses (cycles):

(1) Biogeochemical cycles, which affect the compo-sition of the atmosphere and ocean, the formationof soils, and the evolution of biomes.

(2) Energy and water cycles, which affect the transferof energy, water, aerosols, and trace gases be-tween the atmosphere, land surface, hydrosphere,and cryosphere.

(3) Human activity, which began to strongly affect theplanetary system on the regional level with theestablishment of the first agricultural civilizations,now includes effects on the Global Earth System.

Studying any one of these cycles or activities oftenrequires analyses of its interaction with the other twoand of the transitional (non-equilibrium) character ofthese interactions (Fig. 3).

The Science Plan is focused on the surface and near-surface processes in the Northern Eurasian regionand addresses the overarching NEESPI theme, whichis Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics and its interactionswith the Global Earth System. The major scientificareas, or science themes, to be addressed in the NEESPIinclude terrestrial ecosystem dynamics, biogeoche-mical cycles, surface energy and water cycles, landuse interactions: societal-ecosystem linkages, eco-systems and climate interactions, and topics of specialinterest, which include cold land region processes,coastal zone processes, and atmospheric aerosol andpollution.

2.1. The overarching NEESPI science question is:

How do Northern Eurasia's terrestrial ecosystemsdynamics interact with and alter the biosphere,atmosphere, and hydrosphere of the Earth?

This question can be reformulated in a pragmatic wayas:

How do we develop our predictive capability ofterrestrial ecosystems dynamics over Northern Eurasiafor the 21st century to support global projections as wellas informed decision making and numerous practicalapplications in the region?

While seemingly different, the two questions con-verge because, to answer them, the same scientificinvestigations are required. Specifically, the followingquestions must be addressed:

(1) How does the Northern Eurasia ecosystemfunction and how and why has it been changingduring the past centuries?

(2) What are the linkages between the NorthernEurasia ecosystem, atmosphere, and the WorldOcean?

(3) What has been the role of anthropogenic impactson producing the current status of the ecosystem,both through local land use/land cover modifica-tions and through global gas and aerosol inputs?

Fig. 3. Pre-industrial (up to circa mid 19th century) and present interactions in the Global Earth System.


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What are the hemispheric scale interactions, andwhat are the regional and local effects?

(4) How will future human actions affect the NorthernEurasia ecosystems? And, how will changes inthese ecosystems feedback to society? How canwe describe these processes using a suite of local,regional, and global models?

(5) What will be the consequences of global changesfor the regional environment, the economy, andthe quality of life in Northern Eurasia? How canscience contribute to decision making on envir-onmental issues in the region?

The information on the status and dynamics ofterrestrial ecosystems, the understanding of the maindriving forces, and prediction of the future conse-quences are essential for global change science, im-plementation of environmental treaties, developmentprograms, natural resource management, environmentalprotection, and human health and well-being. Therefore,we need to establish (restore, develop, utilize) a modernobservational system capable to retrieve and properlyinterpret information about the current state and changesof the environment of Northern Eurasia. Thereafter, weneed to develop an ecosystem level and regional input(data flux, model blocks, and missing parameter values)to the contemporary Regional and Global Earth Systemmodels, thus merging terrestrial ecosystems dynamicsstudies in the region with the global change science.Other NEESPI science questions related to the key sci-ence themes are presented and discussed below.

2.2. Biogeochemical cycles

(1) What are the current geographical and temporaldistributions of the major stores and fluxes ofcarbon and other elements in Northern Eurasia?

(2) What are the major drivers and feedback mechan-isms that control the dynamics of the biogeo-chemical cycles at local, regional, and continentalscales?

(3) What are the likely future dynamics of biogeo-chemical cycles that are important to the function-ing of the Earth system and the human society?

(4) What points of intervention and windows of oppor-tunity exist for society to manage biogeochemicalcycles in order to mitigate adverse consequences?

Understanding the role and projecting the futuredynamics of biogeochemical cycles in Northern Eurasiais critically important for comprehensive, policy-rele-vant knowledge of the global carbon cycle, and for

welfare of the populations inhabiting the region.Proposed diagnostic analyses include distributed terres-trial measurements, detailed description of the propertiesand dynamics of individual landscapes and ecosystems,monitoring of disturbance regimes, and studies ofhydrologic transfers of carbon and other elements andtheir sequestration in sediments. These activities will beorganized into process-based models, inversion andtracer transport models, and data assimilation schemes;all three supported by interdisciplinary intensive fieldcampaigns. The proposed process-oriented researchactivities will be based on process-oriented models at aregional scale, which would accumulate and explicitlyuse knowledge on individual landscapes, land usesystems, and ecosystems and include studies ofresponses and feedbacks of terrestrial biogeochemistryto internally-caused perturbations and external forcing.Modeling is the only viable approach to generatepredictive capabilities of biogeochemical cycles. Re-search related to management of biogeochemical cycleswill include analyses of economics, land use, and energypolicy options for this management, analyses ofvulnerability of carbon pools, development of scenariosfor incorporation into global Earthmodels, assessment ofsequestration options, and development of anticipatorystrategies of adaptation of the NEESPI region's ter-restrial ecosystems to environmental changes.

2.3. Surface energy and water cycles

(1) What is the relative importance of the major driversand feedback mechanisms that control the variabil-ity and changes of the surface energy and watercycles at local, regional, and continental scales?

(2) What are the details of surface energy and watercycle dynamics in Northern Eurasia, and how dothey improve our understanding of how thisregion interacts with global cycles?

Priorities in surface energy andwater cycle studieswereset according to two criteria. First, attention must be paidto the processes that directly feedback to the Global EarthSystem. This justifies the interest of the internationalcommunity in environmental changes in Northern Eurasia.These processes (listed in Section 3 of this Overview) arealso very important on regional and larger scales. In mostcases, the feedbacks to the Global Earth System are onlyfeeble manifestations of enormous changes within thesubcontinent that “spill out” across the regional borders.Furthermore, by affecting the Global Earth System, they,by definition, affect Northern Eurasia. The fundamentalstudy of land–atmosphere exchange in this region


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incorporates the need to evaluate the natural dynamics incontrast to large scale land use changes affecting the land–atmosphere exchanges. Second, the processes of majorsocietal importance must be addressed. They may or maynot affect the Global Earth System, but for the region'spopulation, they are of pivotal importance. These includeextreme weather events, water supply, thaw of permafrost,desertification, and impacts on agriculture and air andwater quality. Major deficiencies in surface energy andwater cycle knowledge and observing systems will beaddressed by (1) using modern tools of environmentalmonitoring, (2) integration of the results from historicaldatasets, present observational systems, and processstudies into a unified knowledge base, (3) developmentof an interactive suite of the land surface models that canaccount for major land surface process dynamics inNorthern Eurasia and interactively feedback to the regionaland global climate, environmental, and economic models,and (4) performing all necessary studies to make this suiteof models a viable working tool.

2.4. Land use interactions: societal-ecosystem linkages

The central set of land use and society, or “societalfeedback,” questions to be addressed in the NEESPI are:

(1) What land use changes are taking place inNorthern Eurasia and what are their impacts onthe environment and society?

(2) What lessons can be learned from the responses todramatic land use modifications during the“planned” economy period for future sustainablenatural resource management?

(3) What will be the consequences of socio-economicchanges in Northern Eurasia on the environment?

(4) How can science contribute to development ofenvironmental strategies for society (societies)?

The vast regions of Northern Eurasia and the broadrange of lands, ecosystems, and peoples that character-ize them— have undergone major fundamental changesresulting from the unprecedented and dramatic trans-formations of the social, economic, political, environ-mental, and technological systems in the countries of theregion. The changes in land use have altered a numberof ecosystem processes (including carbon and waterdynamics, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity) andland–atmosphere interactions. The state of knowledgeof the understanding of the linkages and changes in thecoupled human, environmental, and climatic systemsassociated with land sustainability in the region isinadequate. The development of NEESPI research

studies related to this topic will focus on: human healthand well-being, impact of fires and pollution on humansand ecosystems, biodiversity, agricultural and forestryproductivity, water management and quality, and naturalhazards. Advances in studies addressing these issues,will provide a direct support to the informed decisionmaking and numerous practical applications in theregion. Much of this region is currently continuing toundergo transformation on a large scale and thus thetiming of the NEESPI program is at the same time bothcritical and potentially highly rewarding.

2.5. Ecosystems and climate interactions

Northern Eurasia is one of the regions whereecosystem and climate interactions play a critical role,and a topical question for the NEESPI is:

(1) How do we account for the synergy of feedbacks ofmajor processes within the regional terrestrial eco-systems, climate, cryosphere, and hydrosphere ofNorthern Eurasia and their interactionswith society?

An extensive overview of studies in Northern Eurasiashows that a combination of factors, conditions, andlinks makes it very difficult to answer the question aboutthe final sign and magnitude of the terrestrial ecosys-tems–climate interactions that are loosely named“biogeochemical and biogeophysical feedbacks”. Un-derstanding these feedbacks and their description withina viable blend of models is essential for predicting theirfuture behavior. The main attention should be focused

Fig. 4. Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) for 1998–2002 [positive CO2flux stands for source to the atmosphere]. Sign of annual NEE dependsupon weather conditions. Data source: archive of the EurosiberianCarbon flux Project, courtesy of Dr. Julia A. Kurbatova, RussianAcademy of Sciences A.A. Severtsov Institute of Problems of Ecologyand Evolution, Moscow, Russia.


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pyon the most vulnerable ecosystems, “hot” positive feed-backs, or feedbacks which, when initiated, may causerun-away processes in the Earth system, and the keyregions. In particular, larger changes in ecosystem–climate interactions across Northern Eurasia should be

expected in taiga (watch for hydrology–vegetation feed-backs) (Fig. 4), in the coastal zone (watch for permafrostthaw–greenhouse gases release feedbacks), and atborders of major vegetation zones like forest–tundra(watch for albedo–vegetation feedbacks), forest–steppe(watch for albedo–vegetation and hydrology–vegeta-tion feedbacks) (Fig. 5), steppe–desert (watch fordesertification processes), and in mountains.

It is concluded that for a reliable regional pattern ofenvironmental changes in Northern Eurasia, which isprone to very strong ecosystem variability and powerfulfeedbacks, the simultaneous interactive models’ runsshould be conducted. Thus, a synergetic approach andknowing all substantial ecosystem–climate interactionsin Northern Eurasia are a prerequisite to the futureprojections and/or scenario simulations for the regionand for the globe.

2.6. Topics of special interest

Cold Regions, Coastal Zone, and Atmospheric Aero-sols and Pollution were identified as cross-cutting topicsof special interest with the following topical scientificquestion for each of them:

(1) How do their changes (or changes in these regionsand/or zone) affect regional and global biogeo-chemical, surface energy and water cycles, andhuman society?

Fig. 5. NASA's data on spatial patterns in persistence of normalizeddifference vegetation index (NDVI) increase: 1981–1999 (Zhou et al.,2003). According to the interpretation of NDVI data by Myneni et al.(2001), boreal forest might provide the net sink of 0.68±0.34 Gt of Cyr−1 of which nearly 70% is in Northern Eurasia.

Fig. 6. (Top) Present boreal forest over permafrost and (bottom) two scenarios of its changes when permafrost will thaw: wetlands (under poordrainage conditions) and steppe.


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2.6.1. Cold land region processesThe stability of the ecosystems in the Cold Land

Regions relies on the stability of ice that, so far, holdsthese systems together. In losing the glacier ice andpermafrost, we are losing the stability of the systems.The changing properties of permafrost and glaciers playan important role in driving the ecosystem balance andeffecting the carbon, energy, and water cycles in theCold Land Regions. Presence of large amounts of ice onand below the ground surface makes northern and highelevation ecosystems and infrastructure very vulnerableto present and future climate warming. The majorthreshold occurs when permafrost starts to thaw from itstop down and when glaciers start to retreat intensively(Fig. 6). At this point, many processes (some of themvery destructive) will be triggered or intensified. Even ifsome ecosystems and infrastructure could avoid com-plete disintegration, their characteristics will be changeddramatically. Therefore, coordinated efforts are urgentlyneeded to (1) establish and support comprehensivepermafrost and glaciers monitoring systems; (2) buildreliable models accounting for changes in land ice andits interactions with terrestrial ecosystems, hydrology,atmosphere, and society in the framework of integratedchange assessment; and (3) develop mitigation strate-gies for the regions negatively affected by the perma-frost thaw and glaciers retreat (Fig. 7).

2.6.2. Coastal zoneSeveral areas of concentrated economic develop-

ment, large populations, and intensive present and futurecoastal zone changes require special attention because

of the extreme risk of degradation in the coming de-cades. The major issues are: possible intensified erosionof coastal escarpments and depositional bodies, degra-dation of unique natural coastal and marine ecosystems,damage to local and regional infrastructure affecting thequality of life for population, and change of bottomtopography due to coastal and bottom erosion of perma-frost rocks that may be significant for the future use ofthe Northern Sea Route and the global biogeochemicalcycle. Reasonable, regionally oriented strategies ofdevelopment in the coastal zone should be introduced.In particular, balances should be found betweenenvironmentally sound future development, the neces-sity to preserve unique ecosystems, and economicallyadvantageous further development.

2.6.3. Atmospheric aerosols and pollutionIn Northern Eurasia, additional aerosol particles

and gaseous pollutants come from emissions from fossilfuel combustion and other industrial processes, anthro-pogenic enhancements of fires, and increases in atmos-pheric dust due to human-induced land use changes.The direct and indirect effects of aerosol particles onsurface energy and water cycles are currently the mostuncertain of the known climate forcings. Atmosphericaerosols and gaseous pollutants can affect terrestrialand marine ecosystems and agricultural production, posea health threat, and cause property damage. Climatechange and population development in the 21st centuryare expected to cause increases in atmospheric aerosolconcentrations. Therefore, there is a clear need forimproved knowledge of interactions between changing

Fig. 7. Example of a central Tien Shan glacier recession. Petrova glacier in the Akshiyrak area (Kuzmichenok et al., 2004).


https://www.researchgate.net/publication/234315146_Assessment_of_Glacial_Area_and_Volume_Change_in_Tien_Shan_Central_Asia_During_the_Last_60_years_Using_Geodetic_Aerial_Photo_ASTER_and_STRM_Data?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-b05c2b19-6035-4beb-830c-121222ff2130&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI0ODI0MzI5NDtBUzoxMDQ4MjMxNjg5NjI1NjlAMTQwMjAwMzE5OTg2MA==

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atmospheric aerosols and the Earth System to increaseconfidence in our understanding of how and why theclimate and environment have changed. NEESPI willprovide a strong scientific underpinning to address thiscomplex problem focusing on Northern Eurasia wherepollution levels and several unique features of aerosolproduction and impact require special attention andstudies.

2.7. Tools: remote sensing, data, information technol-ogy, and modeling

Remote Sensing, Data, Information Technology, andModeling are among the major tools for the NEESPIstudies and the topical scientific questions for theseareas of endeavor are:

(1) How can we characterize and improve the accura-cy and availability of current remotely sensed dataproducts to meet the needs of the NEESPI sciencecommunity and resource managers?

(2) How do we improve the capability of presentand future observation systems as well to captureclimatic and environmental characteristics andchange in the unique conditions of NorthernEurasia?

(3) How do we reduce the uncertainty of regional andGlobal Earth System modeling related to poorknowledge of major processes and feedbacks inNorthern Eurasia?

(4) How do we secure a societal feedback loop in ourmodels that allows simulation of various scenariosof human activity and, in particular, land use in theregion?

3. The importance of studying Northern Eurasia

Given that many of the above scientific questionsinvolve the Global Earth System, the question naturallyarises as to why we should focus on Northern Eurasia. Inbrief, the answers are:

(1) The changes in this region have the potential toaffect the global Earth climate and environmentand may already be doing so.

(2) The region has unique features that need to bebetter understood, parameterized, and accountedfor. Without clear understanding of them, descrip-tion and modeling of the entire Earth system is notpossible.

(3) The study will have benefits to the societies of theregion.

(4) This region possesses a wealth of scientific talentthat can be utilized in this study. It has beenstudied in detail for more than a century, yet theabundance of data that has been collected (particu-larly, by Soviet and Russian research projects) hasnot been utilized enough to study these problemsand is in danger of being lost.

The first two of these points are further elaboratedbelow.

3.1. Current and future changes and global impacts

The changes in this region have the potential to affectthe global Earth climate and environment and mayalready be doing so. Being the largest land mass in theextratropics, the largest terrestrial reservoir of carbon inthe biosphere, one of the regions with the largest cli-matic variations, and an area of active land use changesduring the past century (and possibly in the future),Northern Eurasia has a unique capacity to generate non-linear, large scale, and sometimes abrupt changes inregional carbon, surface energy, and water balances.These changes may feedback to the global climate,biosphere, and society. Specifically,

(1) If we are to understand the global carbon cycleand other biogeochemical cycles, we must knowhow they function in the NEESPI region whichholds more than half of the total pool of terrestrialcarbon.

(2) Accelerated climatic changes across NorthernEurasia may cause changes in global atmosphericcirculation and meridional heat transfer (Fig. 8).

(3) Changes in surface albedo (snow/ice cover, shiftsin vegetation, land use change) and atmospherichumidity may change the Earth heat and waterbalances.

(4) About half of the Northern Eurasian terrain haspermafrost that controls the hydrosphere andbiosphere of the eastern half of the continent.Thawing of permafrost may change the soil car-bon cycle and the entire ecosystem above it and,thus, the concentration of greenhouse gases in theatmosphere. It also will produce major changes inland cover and hydrology. Advance/retreat of theforest line, increase/decrease of conditions con-ducive for forest fires, wind-throw, bogging, andlogging may lead to global biogeochemical,energy, and water cycle changes.

(5) Drying of bogs over expansive areas in WestSiberia and the Great Russian Plain may result in


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their degradation as well as affect the globalcarbon cycle and runoff formation.

(6) Changes in the hydrological cycle over thecontinent will affect the fresh water transport tothe World Ocean and interior lakes. Changes inthe fresh water transport to the Arctic Ocean mayinfluence ocean thermohaline circulation (Fig. 9).

(7) Boundary exchange of fresh water, organic andnon-organic matter may affect biochemical pro-cesses in the shelf seas and interior lakes. In-tensive erosion (currently up to 10 m yr−1 in someareas) and other coastal line changes may affectlife conditions and cause enormous economicdamage.

(8) Ongoing aridization of the continental interiormay cause a massive aeolian aerosol input into thetroposphere that can affect the Earth's heat bal-ance and generate direct biospheric and societalimpacts thousands of kilometers away from theorigin of these dust storms (Fig. 10).

(9) Deglaciation in the mountain systems of CentralAsia and Caucasus, increasing water withdrawal,and increasing dryness of steppe and semi-aridzones will affect surface albedo and water re-sources and their quality of the interior areas of thecontinent and, thus, the global climate and society.

(10) Human activity has changed ecosystem types overmost of the steppe and forest-steppe zones andover part of the forest zone causing numerousbiogeochemical and biogeophysical feedbacks,near-global environmental changes, and affectingenvironmental health and quality of life (Fig. 11).

3.2. Unique features

Northern Eurasia is the largest contiguous landregion in the extratropics. Several unique features ofthis part of the world are predefined by its location:

(1) Northern Eurasia is a major host of the borealforest and bog ecosystems, which may exercisecontrol of the global biogeochemical cycleaffecting the atmospheric composition of suchgreenhouse gases as methane and carbon dioxide.

Fig. 9. Recent changes in North Eurasian annual runoff. Deviations (%) of runoff for 1978–2000 compared to the long-term mean for ∼previous55°yr. Georgievsky et al. (2002). Runoff increase may effect the World Ocean thermohaline circulation.

Fig. 8. Correlations of the surface air temperature data with northernhemispheric meridional temperature gradient (zone 0–30°N minuszone 60°–90°N) for the winter season (Gershunov, 2003). Thegradient defines the intensity of zonal circulation in the extratropics.


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(2) This is the world's largest cold region with twothirds of the permafrost area, two thirds of the areawith seasonal snow cover, and more than a third ofthe mountain glaciers in the Northern Hemi-sphere. Cold land processes define, control, andput a unique signature on the Northern Eurasianclimate, hydrology, and environment.

(3) This is the region where the most continentalclimate is observed that affects the intensity of theEurasian monsoon circulation, which is vital forthe densely populated southern half of Eurasia.

(4) This is the region with the largest river, lake, andreservoir systems on the Earth, the largest closeddrainage basins, and the most extensive coastalzone exposed to the permafrost thaw.

(5) In Northern Eurasia, the major ecosystems arefrequently under heat and/or moisture stress. Overmost of the continent there is a heat deficit and inthe regions where the heat is sufficient, the wateris not. The region is mostly cut off from the humidtropical air masses. Consequently, this region hasthe highest levels of observed climate and weathervariability. The Northern Eurasian surface hasmodulated, and probably will modulate in thefuture, any external forcing imposed on the GlobalEarth System.

(6) Extensive variable dry land areas in NorthernEurasia host highly vulnerable natural andagricultural ecosystems that depend upon scarceand highly variable water resource and are thelargest source of dust in the extratropics, pollutingareas far away from the source.

In addition, the regional land use history and socialforces that underlie this history are unique within the

global environmental science framework and presentchallenges to social and ecosystem scientists assessingthe human dimensions of land cover and land usechange (Fig. 12).

3.3. Comparison with North America

These two major continents in the north, in manyaspects, complement each other rather than expresssimilarities. Major factors that cause differences aregeographical: the size of the Eurasian continent thatprevents atmospheric circulation systems from crossingthe continent; mountain ranges and plateaus that isolateits northern part from the tropics; and different roles ofoceans in the formation of climates of both continents.The geographical differences produce unique ecosys-tems with different reactions to external forcing andunique controls that vary differently with Global EarthSystem changes. Human activity has added a new anddistinctively different feature to each of the continents.Synergy of all the above has generated, and willgenerate in the future, different feedbacks and patternsof environmental changes. Therefore, to be able to knowthe processes that define environmental change in theextratropics, comprehensive studies of both continentsare required.

3.4. Intensity of processes

Compared to the tropics, the absolute values of thesurface energy and water cycle in Northern Eurasia arerelatively low and variations in the cycles do not need tobe huge to cause significant perturbations. The lowintensity but high variability of processes makes itdifficult to monitor and study them. Therefore, if we

Fig. 10. Long-range transport of the dust storm originated over the Gobi desert on April 6th, 2001 (Darmenova et al., 2005).


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intend to monitor changes in Northern Eurasia with thesame precision as in other regions (e.g., remotely), weneed more than the usual amount of information aboutprocesses causing these changes.

4. Research strategy and tools to address NEEPSIscience questions

Terrestrial ecosystems, being an integrating compo-nent at the land surface and, in some sense, one of themajor forms of the biogeochemical cycle, absorb,control, transform, react to, and, to some extent,generate the changes in all these cycles. Human activityexercises controls on all these cycles, depends uponthem, and reacts to their changes. Therefore, in NorthernEurasia all components, climatic processes, environ-mental changes, and the societal sustainability areclosely and substantially interconnected to each otherand should be studied together in an interdisciplinaryfashion. Moreover, many of the important processes thatdefine the environmental role of Northern Eurasia occurat the boundary between zones and ecosystems.

Interdisciplinary studies are critical for understandingthese changes. Within the integrative framework of theNorthern Eurasian partnership, the NEESPI studies areexpected to include learning from and contribute toother relevant regional and global programs.

Research strategies for the Science Plan include:extraction and preservation of past observations,satellite assessments and monitoring, process studies,studies of impacts of environmental changes on societyand the societal feedback, and modeling. The education

component is an important, intrinsic part of eachcomponent of the research strategy. These researchdirections are closely linked and overlap one another.

4.1. Process studies

To answer the major science questions of the SciencePlan it is necessary to better understand the processesand interactions within the regional ecosystems. There-fore, process studies will be a key research element ofthe NEESPI Program. These studies include: (1) biogeo-chemical cycling in terrestrial ecosystems in NorthernEurasia studies; (2) recovery of the informationaccumulated during century-long process studies ofthe past and blending it with a new generation of envi-ronmental studies; and (3) new field and process-oriented studies that focus on processes critical toNorthern Eurasia (cold land processes, large scaleinteraction with boreal and tundra ecosystems, sustain-able agriculture in zones with high risk of inclementweather). At the plant, patch, and micro-meteorologicallevels, as well as at the ecosystem, watershed, andregional scales, a set of research questions should beaddressed in order to develop model representations ofprocesses and feedbacks associated with the landsurface, terrestrial hydrology, cryosphere, and vegeta-tion and their testing of skill using observations.

Focused societal studies are not uncommon inglobal change assessments. The unique objective ofthe NEESP Initiative (or at least one that is rarely met)is to elevate these studies to the level of investigation ofan equally important interactive process that shapes (in

Fig. 11. Cropland (orange areas) occupies currently more than 90% of steppe and forest–steppe zones of Northern Eurasia (Fischer et al., 2001).


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substantial manner) the present and future global andregional changes. Therefore, impact of environmentalchanges on society and the feedback loop will be animportant part of the NEESPI research program.Studies that address these societal issues are clustered

into the following five major groups. Studies of humanhealth and well-being shall analyze the interconnec-tions between environment, climate, urban and indus-trial development, pollution, land use, and social/political changes and human health. This includes

Fig. 12. (Top) Land use dynamics over the Volga River Basin during the past 60 yr (Golubev et al., 2003, updated). (Bottom) Man-made changes inthe area of the Aral Sea reported from satellites.


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pystudies of the vulnerabilities and capacities of humansand ecosystems to adapt to these changes, possiblemitigation actions, and improved decisions and policiesfor future actions proposed. Ecosystem health studieswill focus on the effects of global and regionalchanges, in particular pollution, on biodiversity, pro-ductivity, and sustainability. Research to improve thequantification of the impacts of climate and environ-mental variability and change on agricultural andforestry productivity, shall include a feedback loop inconsideration and into models that accounts for social,economic, political and governmental policies, prac-tices, and management. Water management and qualitystudies shall assess past, present and potential impactsof anthropogenic influences and climate change onquality and quantity of water supply (Figs. 12–13).Implications of this assessment should be analyzed andpossible mitigation measures suggested when andwhere needed. Natural hazards and disturbance studiesshall assess the frequency and intensity of extremeevents, extensive fires, and other natural disasters in theregion, the vulnerabilities of the people to these events,and their capability to cope with disasters. The con-tribution of regional fires to trace gas emissions and

long range transport of particulates outside the regionwill be also examined. The studies should includeimproved efforts to monitor, predict, and to feedbackthat information to the people for emergency prepared-ness and assessment of anticipated additional effectsthat could result from environmental changes ofdifferent origin.

Inherent in the NEESPI research strategy is theincorporation of a variety of “tools” that will be requiredor helpful in conducting the scientific investigations.These tools include remote sensing, modeling, and dataand associated technologies.

4.2. Remote sensing

One of the goals of NEESPI is to involve NEESPIscientists in the development and testing of the integratedglobal observing systems (IGOS). Such systems wouldprovide monitoring of Northern Eurasia using satellitefacilities and information technologies that include datacollection and management, image processing/analysis,spatial data analysis and modeling, data distribution, andusers interface. There is a wide range of existing satelliteinstruments that will cover needs of various applicationswithin Northern Eurasia to study and monitor vegeta-tion status, land use, coastal zone, inland waters (lakes,reservoirs, and rivers) (Fig. 14), snow cover (Fig. 15),ground ice (glaciers) (Fig. 7) and permafrost character-istics (Fig. 16), components of surface energy and carbonbudget, precipitation (Fig. 17), evapotranspiration, andatmospheric water vapor. The use of remote sensing,however, is hampered by inadequate in-situ informationneeded for validation of the remote sensing products andby lack of understanding of the regional processesrequired for reliable implementation of the retrievalalgorithms. Therefore, validation studies and regionalretrieval algorithms development will be an importantcomponent of NEESPI.

Observations from space allow accurate and com-prehensive quantification of many otherwise unavail-able characteristics of ecosystems. The accuracy ofthese products, however, still has to be improved withthe help of information from in-situ observations and/orregional model data assimilation. Expanding the modernin-situ environmental networks into Northern Eurasiaand strengthening the existing operational and scienceoriented systems may substantially improve the situa-tion. An investment to properly validate remote sensingalgorithms for the Northern Eurasia region is required.Satellite remote sensing will also provide an input toearly warning systems and timely information for im-proved resource management.

Fig. 13. Observed and “natural” changes of the Caspian Sea level(Shiklomanov 1976; Shiklomanov and Georgievsky, 2003). “Natural”changes are the changes that would have happened if there were noanthropogenic impacts on the river inflow into the Sea. The CaspianSea is the world's largest lake. It does not have outflow and thus issalty. Most of its influx (∼80%) comes from the Volga River that hasbeen covered by a set of reservoirs during the 20th century. Thesereservoirs and water withdrawal for irrigation and other types of waterconsumption caused a systematic decrease in the river stream flow thataffected the Sea level, and thus the coastal zone, fisheries, urbandevelopment, and transportation. During the past sixty years, thisFigure shows a relatively stable Sea level up to the late 1970s and thenan increase in the Sea level that would have happened without theanthropogenic impact. However during the 1950–1980 period, thisnatural process had been temporarily reversed by the regionalanthropogenic impact misguiding the water managers. The misjudg-ment caused enormous economic and environmental losses whenprotective measures “to save the Sea” (the dam construction to separatethe Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay from the Sea) were implemented and finallyfailed.


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pyRemote sensing in Northern Eurasia is of particular

importance because vast areas of the region are not wellcovered by in-situ observations. Currently, NASA,NOAA, NASDA, ESA, CMA, and Rosaviakosmossatellites conduct monitoring of various characteristicsof the Earth climate, environment and land use. Newlaunches will occur in the years to come. Sensors onboard these satellites and techniques for data interpre-tation rely on the understanding of the processes ofinteraction among radiation, the Earth surface, and theatmosphere. NEESPI studies will secure improvedinterpretation of current and future remote sensinginformation in Northern Eurasia and provide the bridgebetween this information and historical in-situobservations.

4.3. Modeling

The triad of the primary functions of modeling (i.e.,studying processes, filling gaps in observations, andprojecting the future) will be represented in NEESPI.Local, regional, and global scale modeling are all im-

portant, as well as integrated assessment modeling andmodeling strategies for prediction (e.g., environmentaland societal issues). The overarching, complementaryscientific topics for the NEESPI modeling component

Fig. 14. (Top) Endangered oil tanks at the coast of Pechora Sea (20 yr ago they were 60 m from the coast; Ogorodov, 2003). (Bottom) Phytoplanktondistribution in Dnepr Estuary demonstrates eutrophication processes in the area. Landsat7. August 10, 1999 (Bands ETM+: 3,2,1).

Fig. 15. Eurasian snow cover extent in spring (April, April–May;Groisman et al., 1994, updated; Brown, 2000).


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pyare processes that control energy, water, and carbonfluxes over Northern Eurasia, direct and feedback effectsof environmental changes in Northern Eurasia on theGlobal Earth System and their evolution, capability ofthe models to simulate observed environmental changesin Northern Eurasia, and capability of the models toprovide an operational interface between on-ground andremote sensing data for data assimilation. The NEESPImodeling efforts will focus on models’ improvements toaddress the above topics, enhancements of the models’capability to simulate the past and to estimate thespectrum of possible future environmental and societalchanges both in Northern Eurasia and globally, andassessments the vulnerability of the regional ecosystemsand societies to future environmental conditions.

The NEESPI modeling efforts will be organized on threescales: local, regional, and global. The three-scale approachimplies using or developing a wide range of models,including atmospheric boundary layer models, soil–vegeta-tion–atmosphere transfer models of different levels ofcomplexity, permafrost models, air pollution models, dataassimilation schemes, regional 3-D atmospheric modelscoupled to comprehensive land surface components, regionalhigh-resolution hydrologic models, models of primary andsecondary successions in vegetation and soils, dynamicgeneral vegetation models, global climate models,including, general circulation models and Earth system

models of intermediate complexity, socio-economicmodels, and integrated assessment models. The modelingactivity is to be supplemented with developing modeldiagnosis and inter-comparison tools, data assimilation,and down- and up-scaling techniques. Finally, in theframework of the integrated assessment modeling, asystematic, integrated environmental change assessmentstudy is to be conducted within the framework of a quasi-closed system with an explicit mechanism for incorpo-rating and addressing stakeholders’ (decision-makers)questions and concerns regarding global change asapplied to Northern Eurasia and for the interests of themajor societal and economic activities.

4.4. Data and information and associated technologies

Each of science foci of NEESPI has unique require-ments for data. A brief assessment indicates that thereis a wealth of information from various sources, butmechanisms to discover, identify and share datasets, andto integrate them into a multi-lateral research programsuch as NEESPI are lacking. While the first step toremedy this deficiency will be the creation of a meta-data archive (i.e., a catalog of existing datasets withinNEESPI countries in a standard form), significant effortswill also be devoted to preservation and dissemination ofpast and current observations and organization of an open

Fig. 16. Circumpolar permafrost extent (Brown et al., 1997). Glaciers (dark blue) and areas of continuous, discontinuous, sporadic, isolated, and relictpermafrost are shown. Shelf permafrost limit is depicted by the red line.


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Fig. 17. The mean seasonal total net surface radiation budget, W m−2 (Stackhouse et al., in preparation; top). Annual water vapor content in theatmosphere (surface to 300 hPa; Randel et al., 1996, middle), and precipitation, mm, over Northern Eurasia (in-situ data; Korzun, 1974; bottom).


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exchange of data and information among project partici-pants, to the greatest extent allowable by institutional,national, and international regulations. Preservation ofexisting unique observational programs and stabilizationof the density of standard meteorological, hydrological,and environmental observations is a critical task forNorthern Eurasia.

4.5. Educational component

NEESPI needs an increase in the availability oftrained scientists working on critical Earth-scienceissues in the region, the fostering of good internationalrelations through increased cross-cultural and collabo-rative opportunities, an increase in research and studyopportunities for talented students, a broader exposure(access) of scientists in the region to modern technol-ogies and methods of environmental studies, and anavenue for continuing education and re-training of ex-perienced scientists who may have recently faced sig-nificant institutional changes. While the presence of aneducation component will be among the funding re-quirements of successful NEESPI projects, severalstages of education and training will be additionallyimplemented at the following levels: elementary andsecondary school, undergraduate education, graduateprofessional education, graduate Ph.D. education, andcontinuing education and re-training.

5. Goals and deliverables

Through conducting the scientific research during thenext decade as addressed in the NEESPI Science Planthe following products are expected:

(1) An integrated observational knowledge data basefor environmental studies in Northern Eurasia thatincludes validated remote sensing products.

(2) A suite of process-oriented models for each majorterrestrial process in all its interactions (includingthose with the society).

(3) Prototypes for a suite of global and regionalmodels that seamlessly incorporate all regionallyspecific feedbacks associated with terrestrial pro-cesses in Northern Eurasia and which could serveto improve scientific understanding that wouldenable future environmental change projectionsand provide input to informed decision making forland use and environmental protection policies.

(4) Systems demonstrated in the research domain incollaboration with operational partners that canserve the emergency needs of the society (early

warning/management/mitigation of floods, fire,droughts, and other natural disasters).

6. Current status of the Initiative (April 2005)

The viability of any science plan depends upon thefollow-up implementation, i.e., upon the support fromparticipating Countries, Agencies, and Institutions thatresult in funded research and infrastructure-buildingproposals (projects). Approximately 20 individual researchprojects (always with international participation) arecurrently funded and/or are pending under theNEESPI umbrella. It is anticipated that up to 30 projectswill be running by the end of 2005. The increase will beachieved by both new research proposals aswell as existingprojects that will adopt NEESPI objectives and approachesand agree to associate themselves with the Initiative. TheScience Plan Development Team made all possible effortsto facilitate such associations for other research groups in aseamless and mutually beneficial manner.

AppendixA.NEESPI Science PlanDevelopmentTeam

A.1. List of contributors and chapter authors

In bold font are the lead chapter authors (except thelead authors, all other contributors are listed in alphabeticorder). Contributors from Austria, Estonia, Finland,France, Germany, Japan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Russia,Ukraine, and the United States participated in theScience Plan preparation. Editors of the Science Planare the NEESPI Project Scientists: Pavel Ya. Groisman(USA) and Sergey A. Bartalev (Russia).

A.1.1. Chapters 1 and 2H.H. Shugart, P.Ya. Groisman, S.A. Bartalev,

A.S. Isaev, A.V. Mestcherskaya, A. Robock, V.Yu.Georgievsky, A.G. Georgiadi, L.D. Hinzman, A.D.McGuire, A.G. Lapenis, R.A. Pielke, Sr., V.E.Romanovsky, A.I. Shiklomanov, N.M. Tchebakova,N.N. Vygodskaya, M.S. Zalogin.

A.1.2. Chapter 3.1S.A. Bartalev, A.S. Isaev, H.H. Shugart, A.G.

Georgiadi, P.Ya. Groisman, G.N. Koptsik, S.V. Koptsik,N.I. Koronkevich, O.N. Krankina, G.S. Kust, N.V.Lukina, A.D. McGuire, A.A. Sirin, V.S. Stolbovoi, S.E.Vompersky, and D.G. Zamolodchikov.

A.1.3. Chapter 3.2A.D. McGuire, N.V. Lukina, A.G. Georgiadi, M.E.

Harmon, O.N. Krankina, A.G. Lapenis, Sh. Maksyutov,


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D.S. Ojima, K.J. Ranson, A.V. Oltchev, A.Z. Shvi-denko, N.N. Vygodskaya, D.G. Zamolodchikov.

A.1.4. Chapter 3.3P.Ya. Groisman, A.G. Georgiadi, G.V. Alekseev,

V.B. Aizen, E.M. Aizen, R.G. Barry, S.G. Conard, V.Yu. Georgievsky, V.I. Gorny, L.D. Hinzman, G. Inoue,A.V. Kislov, L.M. Kitaev, A.N. Krenke, A.D.McGuire, A.V. Mestcherskaya, G.N. Panin, V.N.Razuvaev, V.E. Romanovsky, A.V. Oltchev, T. Ohta,A.A. Onuchin, B.G. Sherstyukov, A.I. Shiklomanov,I.A. Shiklomanov, A.B. Shmakin, A.J. Soya, P.W.Stackhouse, N.A. Speranskaya, N.N. Vygodskaya,W. Wagner, M.S. Zalogin, S.A. Zhuravin, A.N.Zolotokrylin.

A.1.5. Chapter 3.4N.F. Glazovsky, D.S. Ojima, N.G. Maynard, K.M.

Bergen, N. Chubarova, N. Davaasuren, G. Fisher, E. L.Genikhovich, P.Y. Groisman, G.V. Kalabin, V.M. Kotlya-kov, G.S. Kust, V. Osipov, V.E. Romanovsky, C.Rosenzweig, K. Seto, A.A. Chibilev, F. Tubiello, N.M.Vandysheva, R. Walker.

A.1.6. Chapter 3.5N.N. Vygodskaya, P.Ya. Groisman, N.M. Tcheba-

kova, V.B. Aizen, E.M. Aizen, V.Yu. Georgievsky, L.O.Karpachevsky, N.K. Kiseleva, A.V. Kozharinov, Yu.A.Kurbatova, Sh. Maksyutov, A.V.Meshcherskaya, T. Nilson,R.A. Pielke, Sr., V.N. Razuvaev, A.B. Savinetsky, A.O.Selivanov, A.I. Shiklomanov, N.A. Speranskaya, Yu.L.Tselniker, A.V.Varlagin, A.N. Zolotokrylin.

A.1.7. Chapter 3.6.1V.E. Romanovsky, T.E. Khromova, O.A. Anisi-

mov, V.B. Aizen, E.M. Aizen, R.G. Barry, M.B.Dyurgerov, A.G. Georgiadi, L.D. Hinzman, O.N.Krankina, S.S. Marchenko, T.S. Sazonova.

A.1.8. Chapter 3.6.2A.O. Selivanov, I.P. Semiletov, S.V. Victorov, A.G.

Georgiadi, V.Yu. Georgievsky, P.Ya. Groisman, Yu.L.Obyedkov, V.E. Romanovsky, S. Shaporenko, A.I.Shiklomanov, F.A. Surkov, M.S. Zalogin.

A.1.9. Chapter 3.6.3I. N. Sokolik, E.L. Genikhovich, M.S. Zalogin.

A.1.10. Chapter 4S.A. Bartalev, V.G. Bondur, A.A. Gitelson, C.

Justice, E.A.Loupian, J. Bates, D. Cline, G. Fisher,V.I. Gorny, P.Ya. Groisman, G. Henebry, T.E.

Khromova, C. Prigent, J. Roads, W. Rossow, A.J.Soya, P.W. Stackhouse, S.V. Victorov, L.A. Vede-shin, W. Wagner.

A.1.11. Chapter 5V.M. Kattsov, I.I. Mokhov, R.A. Pielke, Sr., S.V.

Venevsky, O.A. Anisimov, E.L. Genikhovich, A.G.Georgiadi, P.Ya. Groisman, A.S. Komarov, V.V. Kozo-derov, D.O. Logofet, V.M. Lykosov, Yu.G. Motovilov,A.V. Oltchev, V.E. Romanovsky, M.E. Schlesinger, A.I.Shiklomanov, N.I. Shiklomanov, A.B. Shmakin, N.N.Vygodskaya.

A.1.12. Chapter 6J.G. Macek, V.N. Razuvaev, V.E. Gershenzon,

P.Ya. Groisman.

A.1.13. Chapter 7V.G. Bondur, K.M. Bergen, R. Heino, V.V.

Kozoderov, R.G. Mamin, F.A. Surkov.

A.1.14. Chapter 8P.Ya.Groisman, S.A. Bartalev, L.D. Hinzman, R.G.

Barry, A. Robock, N.G. Maynard.

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Bartholomé, E., Belward, A.S., 2005. GLC2000: a new approach toglobal land cover mapping from Earth observation data. Int. J.Remote Sens. 26, 1959–1977.

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Brown, J., Ferrians Jr., O.J., Heginbottom, J.A., Melnikov, E.S., 1997.Circum-arctic map of permafrost and ground ice conditions.International Permafrost Association, Published as Map CP45, USGeological Survey, Washington, DC.

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