Office of the President Northern Arizona University: Business Plan Arizona Board of Regents June 17 2011 June 17, 2011
Office of the President
Northern Arizona University: Business Plan
Arizona Board of Regents
June 17 2011June 17, 2011
Office of the President
OVERVIEWThe NAU business plan
– identifies university’s distinctive characteristics
– considers its competitive position among public high research– considers its competitive position among public high research institutions and ABOR approved peers,
– outlines institutional portfolio and metrics, p ,
– provides funding scenarios to meet the Vision 2020 goals under different funding structures, and
– highlights challenges and opportunities that the university faces in delivering on its mission.
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Office of the President
OPERATIONAL FRAMEWORKArizona is:•One of the states most impacted by
Arizona is:•49th in high school drop‐out rates
th d l ll d
College readiness
One of the states most impacted by recession•32nd in proportion of population with at least a bachelor’s degree•4th in proportion of population with
•45th in young adults ages 18‐24 enrolled in or completed college•44th in college participation of low‐income students
th d k ll f th d
P l ti
(K‐12 Performance)
State Economy Inputs
4 in proportion of population with Hispanic origin
•41th in reading skills of 8th graders•49th in math skills of 8th graders
NAU:$Population
Demographics
y(Public Support)
•Managed $63M in state cuts since 2008 (36% decrease in State General Fund)
Degrees
•State General Fund Appropriation per FTE is lower than it was over 20 years ago ( )
3
g(1989‐90)•No enrollment growth support since FY 2009
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MISSION FOCUS
To provide an outstandingTo provide an outstanding
undergraduate residential
education strengthened by
research, graduate and
professional programs, and
sophisticated methods ofsophisticated methods of
distance delivery and
innovative new campuses
and programs throughout
the state.
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Office of the President
DISTINCTIVE CHARACTERISTICS OF ADISTINCTIVE CHARACTERISTICS OF AREGIONAL UNIVERSITY
• Undergraduate students in• Core of university mission • Undergraduate students in research
• Selective areas of excellence• Regional focus
• Lower research expenditures
• Core of university mission• Highly residential main campus (88% of full‐time freshman students live on campus)
• Smaller class sizes (84% of • Lower research expenditures• Mostly federally and state funded grants and contracts
(81% of all awards in 2011)
Smaller class sizes (84% of freshman level classes are smaller than 50 students)
• Smaller athletics program• First generation students
Undergrad. Education/ Student
Research Focus
Research Focus
• Pell grant recipients Profile
Budget, FinancialStatewide
•More dependent on tuition revenue and state funding
• 1/3 of students off main campus
• Extensive network of community campuses
Financial Aid & Tuition
Statewide Access
revenue and state funding• Predictable pledge tuition
• Lower financial aid award levels
community campuses• 90% of all AUS online degrees• Older students, rural areas• Pilot: NAU‐Yavapai
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Office of the President
PERFORMANCE GOALS
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Office of the President
NAU PERFORMANCE METRICS
• Highest percentage headcount and FTE growth in the AUS Enterprise from 2006‐2011
• Highest percentage growth in new transfers from Arizona g p g gcommunity colleges in the Enterprise since 2006; further growth expected from:
2NAU J i t Ad i i2NAU Joint Admissions
Investment adding programs at NAU‐Yuma
• Bachelor’s degree percentage growth expected to be highest in AUS Enterprise for the next three years (average growth ~9%)
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Office of the President
2005‐2020 TOTAL HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT 2020 Target = 30,300 Enterprise GoalTarget = 40,000 P j t d
25000
30000
Target 40,000
25,204
Projected
15000
20000 19,069
10000
15000
0
5000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2020
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2020
Flagstaff Online/statewide Yuma Yavapai
Office of the President
5,000
BACHELOR'S DEGREES AWARDED 2020 Original Silver Target = 4,400;2020 New Target =4,900
4,500
Degree Production is a lagging indicator:
NAU’s huge enrollment growth from
4,000
NAU s huge enrollment growth from 2006‐2011 will mean large gains in bachelor’s degree graduates over the next three years
3,500
2 500
3,000
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2,500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020
Office of the President
1994 2020 F T F T O Y
85.0%
1994‐2020 FIRST‐TIME, FULL‐TIME ONE‐YEARRETENTION RATE
Enterprise Goal
80.0%
Enterprise Goal Target = 85%
2020 Silver Target = 78%
71.5%75.0%
ProjectedProjected
70.0%
60 0%
65.0%
10
60.0%
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
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1999 2020 SIX YEAR GRADUATION RATE65.0%
1999‐2020 SIX‐YEAR GRADUATION RATEEnterprise GoalTarget = 65%
60.0% 2020 Silver Target = 60%
50.0%
55.0%
ProjectedProjected
50.0%
45.0%
11
40.0%
19…
20…
20…
20…
20…
20…
20…
20…
20…
20…
20…
20…
20…
20…
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2020
RESEARCH AND PUBLIC SERVICE EXPENDITURESProjectedProjected
$28.8 $26.9
2009
20102020 Silver Target = $80M
2008
2009 = $80M
Enterprise GoalTarget = $100M
2006
2007Target $100M
2004
2005Research Expenditures
Public Service Expenditures
12$0.0 $10.0 $20.0 $30.0 $40.0 $50.0 $60.0 $70.0 $80.0 $90.0
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Mi bi l ti d i
Selective Areas of Strength
• Microbial genetics and genomics
• Renewable energy
• Landscape and resource conservation
H l d ltStrength • Human language and culture
• Undergraduate research
Research Strategy• Enhance academic programs
• Focus on regional problems
• Workforce development
Research
Workforce development
• Innovation/ economic development/ NACET
Research Infrastructure • Compliance
• Financial management/research administration software
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• Enhanced technology transfer framework
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RESEARCH AND PUBLIC SERVICE HIGHLIGHTS• 25 technologies currently available for licensing or development• 25 technologies currently available for licensing or development
• Recent successful spin‐offs: Eccentron, PathoGene, SunWind Solutions…
• Ecological Restoration Institute, Landscape Conservation Analysis, Sustainable Energy Solutions
• Partnerships (NACET, Science Foundation AZ, Colorado Plateau Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit)
• Bisgrove Postdoctoral Fellowships supported by Science Foundation Arizona
• Expertise addressing national and regional challenges (forest management, renewable energy ): Paul Keim Wally Covington Tom Ackerrenewable energy…): Paul Keim, Wally Covington, Tom Acker
– Emerging infectious diseases
– Four Forest Restoration Initiative agreement: the largest forest restoration
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project in the world
Office of the President
MASTER PLAN FOR FLAGSTAFF CAMPUS
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Office of the President
CAPITAL PROJECTSCompletion 2012Completion Fall 2011
• San Francisco Parking Garage
• Residence Halls
• Ardrey Auditorium
• Health and Learning Center
• Skydome
• Liberal Arts • Ardrey Auditorium
• Classroom Upgrades
• Liberal Arts
• North Plant
• Native American Cultural Center
h Q d• North Quad
• Transportation Spine
• Science Lab Facility
Potential Future Projects
• Multi purpose Facility
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• Multi‐purpose Facility
• Science/ Health Facility
Office of the President
NORTHERN ARIZONA UNIVERSITYPROJECTED DEBT SERVICE AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL EXPENSES (1)
(Amounts in Millions)
Outstanding Annual Debt Service as a %Debt of Total
Fiscal Student Estimated Debt Prin End of Yr. AnnualDebt Service
of Total Expenditures
Year Enrollment New Debt Retirement Balance 1Debt Service
With SPEED
Without SPEED
With SPEED
2009/10 24,925 179.3 8.9 443.4 23.4 23.4 6.33% 6.33%/ ,
2010/11 25,380 18.5 9.3 452.6 24.8 27.7 6.22% 6.95%
2011/12 26,263 84.6 10.2 527.0 25.9 32.4 6.12% 7.66%
2018/19 30,309* 0.0 17.2 421.6 26.4 38.7 4.32% 6.34%1) After FY11 retirement of $18.7 million of debt. Includes all COPS and BONDS and SPEED bondsAdditional debt capacity based on the maximum debt ratio percentages is as follows (based on assumed 30 year financing at 6%):Source: FY10 NAU Debt Capacity
FY 8% Debt Capacity (Without SPEED)p y ( )2011 $ 95,000,000
2012 $ 110,000,000
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2020 $ 305,000,000
*2020 goal
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STATEWIDE MISSIONSTATEWIDE MISSION
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Office of the President
S S M• Serving students off‐campus for more than three decades
34 community campuses (up from 22 in 2003)
SCOPE OF STATEWIDE MISSION
– 34 community campuses (up from 22 in 2003)– 76 traditional classroom‐based programs
• Online degree programs (90% of AUS undergraduate online degree awards)Online degree programs (90% of AUS undergraduate online degree awards)
– 78 online programs
El 90/30 ( ll t l t i l d b t f ll 2008 d• Eleven 90/30 programs (enrollment nearly tripled between fall 2008 and spring 2011)
• Joint admissions
• Three‐year bachelor’s degrees at NAU Yavapai
• $31.9 million budget in FY2011 supporting 7,675 students (30% of NAU h d )headcount)
• $1.7 million annually in leased facilities statewide 19
Office of the President
JOINT ADMISSIONS
• CCC2NAU pilot started in Fall 2008• CCC2NAU pilot started in Fall 2008
• Now partnerships with 7 community colleges:p p y g
– Arizona Western College
– Central Arizona Colleges
– Coconino Community College
– Maricopa Community Colleges
h C i C ll– Mohave Community College
– Pima Community College
– Yavapai College– Yavapai College
20Number of students served since 2008: 1,500
Office of the President
STUDENT COST OF BACHELOR’S DEGREE:
$ Transportation/Personal
STUDENT COST OF BACHELOR S DEGREE: LOWER COST OPTIONS
4 years at Flagstaff Campus
$
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000 Transportation/PersonalRoom and BoardBooks and SuppliesFeesTuition
4 years at NAU Statewide
4 years at Flagstaff Campus
$
$50,000
$60,000
$70,0002 years at community college + 2 years at NAU Statewide (Community Campus)
(Community Campus)
3 years at NAU Yavapai
$ 0 000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$0
$10,000
Flagstaff (Pledge) Statewide 2NAU Yavapai
21Note: Students starting in Fall 2011; statewide and Yavapai tuition annual increases assumed as 4.5% level
Office of the President
BUSINESS STRUCTURE 2012‐2020
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Office of the President
FY11 BUDGET SITUATIONEstimated all funding sources total = $444 million
FY12 BUDGET SCENARIOEstimated total = $430 million
State
$444 million
State Gen'l Fund$103
Other Revenue
$16 Gen'l Fund$134 30%
Net Tuition & Fees$145 33%
24%Net
Tuition & Fees$154
4%
33%
TRIFAuxiliary
Other Revenue
$16 4%
$ 5436%
Private
TRIF$12 3%
Auxiliary Revenue
$46 11%
Grants & Contracts
$47 11%
Fed Fin Aid$33 7%
Private Gifts$
$11 2%
yRevenue
$45 10%
Grants & Contracts
$48 11%
Fed Fin Aid$36 8%
Private Gifts$15 3%
3%
23Sage shaded pieces are the basic university expenditure supports
Yellow shaded pieces provide some university support
Red shaded pieces are not generally available for direct support
7%$13 3%
Office of the President
UNIVERSITY BUSINESS PLAN CHALLENGES
Scenario Models Assume:
R f d l f t t l f d t th h FY 2020• Range of models of state general fund support through FY 2020
• Target = FY 2011 state and tuition support per student, inflation dj dadjusted
• 2020 performance dependent on tuition revenue IF state does not reinvest through performance fundingnot reinvest through performance funding
Challenge is to consider impacts on tuition levels, campuses,
t d t i d i it i istudent mix, and university mission24
Office of the President
SCENARIO PLANNING TO MEET 2020 GOALS –SCENARIO PLANNING TO MEET 2020 GOALSSTATE GENERAL FUND AND TUITION AND FEES
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 est. FY12 FY15 FY20 Projection Projected Projection
State Percentage Change over FY12Funding Sources Final FY 08
was $158 273 6
Final FY09 was
$140 272 6‐30% 0% 93%
If State$158,273.6 $140,272.6Assumes No Reduction or Growth in State funds
Rollover B
If State does not increase
f di (M t i
If State Performance
Funding Investments FY15‐FY20 Return Us to FY11 S tBecomes a
Cutfunding (Metric Assumption)
FY11 Support Percentages
General Fund 160,867.0 161,600.0 133,118.0 133,118.0 103,022.0 103,022.0 72,528.6 103,022.0 199,000.0 Gross Tuition and Fees 128,921.0 146,365.0 173,313.0 202,539.0 216,751.0 277,979.0 428,637.4 398,144.0 302,166.0and Fees 128,921.0 146,365.0 173,313.0 202,539.0 216,751.0 277,979.0 428,637.4 398,144.0 302,166.0
Total 256,273.6 307,965.0 306,431.0 335,657.0 319,773.0 381,001.0 501,166.0 501,166.0 501,166.0
State Funds % 63% 52% 43% 40% 32% 27% 14% 21% 40%Gross Tuition % 38% 48% 57% 60% 68% 73% 86% 79% 60%
25Headcount 22,307 23,320 24,925 25,380 26,263 27,750 30,309 30,309 30,309
Office of the President
FY 2012 BUDGET PLAN REDUCTION OF $198MFY 2012 BUDGET PLAN REDUCTION OF $198MNAU SHARE IS $30.1M
Strategy Approx. Amt Discussion
Tuition and Fee Collections
$6‐8M ($6 million with
stable enrollment)
• Rebate new resident 2011‐2012 Pledge students $350 (estimated $1.2M)
• Additional financial aid (RSA and scholarships) to be provided estimated to be $3 5M) provided estimated to be $3.5M
• Graduate Assistant Waivers from 75% to 100% of Tuition
Reductions, savings, revenue growth from
$15M • FY 2011 Voluntary Retirement Program for Tenured Faculty should bring in $1,2‐$1.6M with EREg
Divisions, Debt Service, Salaries and Benefits (Employee Related Expenses – ERE)
g $ , $
• Debt service reduction of $1.9M• Changes/increases in benefits prices for employees
• Divisional/central budget reductionsp ) g
Operating Efficienciesin all Divisions
$0‐$2M • Innovations that reduce costs per FTE
Reduce state budget $4‐7M • Diverting one‐time funds for FY12 and FY13 knowing our flexibility and one time expenditures, reserves,auxiliary accounts
base or structural deficit must be corrected by FY14
Office of the President
STATE AND LOCALRESOURCES (MILLIONS)
Target
EMSA (Enrl Mgmt &
Cabinet Level Reduction (Millions)
Provost $3.8 EMSA (Enrl Mgmt &
Provost$94 9
gStudent Aff)
$28.114%
Extended Campuses
EMSA (Enrl Mgmt & Student Aff) 1.1Extended Campuses 1.0Capital Assets 0.3I f ti T h l$94.9
48%
p$24.312%
Capital Assets$15 2
Information Technology Services$14.8
President$6.73%
Information Technology Services 0.6Advancement 0.4Finance & Administration 0.3$15.2
8%
$8%
Finance & Administration
$8.74%
Institutional
President 0.3Research 0.1Institutional Effectiveness 0.1T t l 8 0
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Advancement$2.81%
Research$2.71%
Effectiveness$1.61%
Total 8.0
Office of the President
NAU TOTAL TUITION FEES AND STATENAU TOTAL TUITION, FEES, AND STATEAPPROPRIATION/ FTE
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Office of the President
2007 2009 DELTA EDUCATIONAL AND RELATED
University of North Carolina at63 000
68,000
2007‐2009 DELTA EDUCATIONAL AND RELATEDCOSTS PER DEGREE Depending how you look
at it: North Carolina at
Greensboro
The University of Montana
58,000
63,000
Northern Arizona University is either the
Northern Arizona
University48 000
53,000 • Most productive
‐‐‐or‐‐‐University
Utah State
43,000
48,000
• Has the lowest support per FTE
Utah State University
38,000 E&R/DEGREE E&R/DEGREE E&R/DEGREE among its Board approved
peersInstruction+ Student Services
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Delta E& = Instruction + Student Services + Instruction+ Student Services
Instruction + Student Services + Research + Public Service
x (Academic Sppt + Institutional Sppt+ O&M)
Office of the President
NOTES ON COST COMPARISONSNorthern Arizona University is:y
• More productive than its peer average per degree
• Lowest cost university in the Arizona University System for
educational and related costs per FTE and per degree
– On the Flagstaff Campus
– Through Online Courses and Degrees
– At Extended Campus Sites and NAU‐Yuma
– New Pilot: NAU‐Yavapai
Joint Admissions (Arizona CC2NAU Programs)– Joint Admissions (Arizona CC2NAU Programs)
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Office of the President
BUDGET CHALLENGES
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Office of the President
ENROLLMENT GROWTH30,000
Y
4 0332,593
2,956
662 675
631
686
20 000
25,000
Online
Yuma
17,5295,048 4,359
4,517
4,033
462 1,318
2,593675
15,000
20,000Community Campuses
13,027 12,71714,766
5 000
10,000Flagstaff
0
5,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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003 004 005 006 007 008 009 0 0
Office of the President
2010‐2011 AAUP: RANKED FACULTY PEER COMPARISON2010‐2011 AAUP: RANKED FACULTY PEER COMPARISONRank Peer Average forOrder Institution All Ranked Faculty ($)1 George Mason University 95,800 2 University of Nevada‐Las Vegas 94,600 3 The University of Alabama 92,500 4 Georgia State University 92,000 5 University of North Carolina at Greensboro 85,800 y ,6 Kent State University Kent Campus 85,300
Weighted Average (Peer Mean) 85,200 50th Percentile (Peer Median) 84,400
7 Old Dominion University 83,400
Still Last
7 Old Dominion University 83,400 8 Southern Illinois University Carbondale 81,400 9 Ohio University‐Main Campus 81,100 10 Western Michigan University 80,300 11 University of Akron Main Campus 79 000 Still Last11 University of Akron Main Campus 79,000 12 University of Maine 78,700 13 Northern Illinois University 76,800 14 Bowling Green State University 75,900 15 Wichita State University 75 000
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15 Wichita State University 75,000 16 Northern Arizona University 74,300
Percentage to Market 14.6Percentage from Market ‐12.8
Office of the President
FULL‐TIME INSTRUCTIONAL FACULTY COMPOSITION
Lecturers/
Fall 2002Fall 2010 N=836;
FTE Students per Full‐Time Faculty = 27:1
TenuredT
Lecturers/ Instructors
13619%
Lecturers/ Instructors
311
27:1
Tenured44363%
Tenure Track12918%
Tenured40749%
Tenure
37%
N=708;FTE Students per Full‐Time Faculty = 24:1
Tenure Track11814%
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24:1
Office of the President
SALARY MARKET COMPARISONSSALARY MARKET COMPARISONS
0
5
7
‐3
‐8
‐5
0
m M
arket
‐14 ‐14
‐7‐10
‐16
‐13
‐15
‐10
% from
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Classified Staff ‐14 ‐10 ‐10 ‐7 ‐6 ‐10 ‐13 ‐14
Service Professionals 7 8 7 3 1 6 7 10
‐16‐20
Service Professionals ‐7 ‐8 ‐7 ‐3 ‐1 ‐6 ‐7 ‐10
Academic Professionals ‐16 ‐13 ‐8 ‐8 ‐6 ‐5 ‐5 ‐8
Administrators ‐3 ‐6 ‐3 1 ‐5 ‐7 ‐10 ‐8
Ranked Faculty (Prof, Assoc, Assist) ‐16 ‐19 ‐16 ‐15 ‐16 ‐14 ‐14 ‐13
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Office of the President
AGING INFRASTRUCTURE• $230 million in deferred• $230 million in deferred maintenance
– Facility condition index: 0 12Facility condition index: 0.12 (Greater than 0.10 – a sign of poor condition)
• Last state appropriated building renewal (partial) in FY 2007
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Office of the President
BUDGET OPPORTUNITIESBUDGET OPPORTUNITIES
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Office of the President
N I t ti l I iti ti• Integrated degrees: Undergraduate + master’s degree in 5 years (instead of 6)
New Instructional Initiatives
‐ piloted by 5 departments
• Summer and winter sessions to aid in degree completion
• Program mix
• Student success initiative
– Focus on freshman skill buildingFocus on freshman skill building– Coordinated sections improve consistency of the student experience– Piloting proven modules/courses procured from commercial vendors– Multiple course delivery mechanismsp y
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Office of the President
P i i• Program mix expansion– Physician Assistant program, Doctor of Physical Therapy (Phoenix)
– Joint RN/BSN program with community colleges/ p g y g
• STEM field expansion– NAU’s enrollments in STEM fields have increased not only in
absolute terms, but in proportion of all NAU enrollments:
6,000 Growth in STEM Field Enrollments Growth in Proportion of STEM Field
4,000
5,000 Fall 03 – Fall 10
60%
80%
100%
Growth in Proportion of STEM Field Enrollments, Fall 03 – Fall 10
1 000
2,000
3,000
0%
20%
40%
60%
39‐
1,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
STEM Non‐STEM
Office of the President
TO ACCOMPLISH STRATEGIC BUSINESS PLANTO ACCOMPLISH STRATEGIC BUSINESS PLANFocus: Maintain Quality and Achieve 2020 Goals
• Pledge tuition program + lower cost options for students
– Pledge program cannot be maintained without annual increases
E ll h i i i l i i i• Enrollment growth in an increasingly competitive environment
• Increased attention to cost drivers and cost containment
• Efficient business practices – use of technology to minimize hiring
• Growth in self‐support for appropriate units/activities
• Innovative public‐private partnerships for capital construction and operations
• Increased retention, improved curricular and scheduling practices, use of technology
• State re‐investment in higher education
– Performance funding 40
Office of the President
THANK YOU
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