North Korea Hereditary Power Transition Security Implications for the United States and ROK.

North Korea Hereditary Power TransitionSecurity Implications for the United States and ROK

Countries will experience hereditary transitions inside their governments. Countries experiencing this type of leadership transition can create the conditions necessary to produce conflict or war. This presentation attempts to project the correlation between hereditary power transition at the national level within the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK) and its effect on the United States, and the Republic of Korea (ROK).

Introduction

Executive Summary

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (D.P.R.K.) experienced a major power transition in 2011 between President Kim Jong IL and his son Kim Jong UN, the grandson of former president Kim Il Sung. This is the second hereditary power transition for North Korea extending from father to son.

North Korea presents a complex political scenario involving the Republic of Korea, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the United States, China, and the United Nations. Internal power transition between Kim Jong il and his son Kim Jong un will only compound major problem sets associated with the North Korea.

Kim Jong il had over a decade to prepare for the transition of government from father to son. He knew that his son would not have that privilege. Kim Jong il constructed a collective leadership base, three family members, and a trusted general sit at its core.

1. Overarching Concern.

Will this hereditary power transition create international conflict?

2. Internal Political - DPRK.

Will the DPRK stage a coup through violent or non-violent means?

3. Defense of ROK - US / DPRK / ROK Interrelationship.

Does the transition of power pose a legitimate national security threatto the standing defense agreement between the US and ROK?

Central Questions

North Korea’s Trajectory Toward Regional Dominance.

“Southern bias was more a matter of geography and hereditary social hierarchy: the northern portion of the peninsula was a land of chronic conflict and invasion, and hence a land of less-than-noble, even foreign peoples. But the very differences that allowed northern society to develop along a different path from the rest of the country also proved advantageous in adjusting to the changes of the early modern era. The dominance of northerners among the cultural figures and nationalist leaders in the early twentieth century suggests strongly, in fact, that another regional imbalance, this time in favor of the northern provinces, would have developed in an independent modern Korea, had not the events of the mid-twentieth century re-imposed a north-south division.”

Bibliographic Note.Hwang, Kyung Moon. From the Dirt to Heaven: Northern Koreans in the Chosŏn and Early Modern Eras. Harvard Journal of Asiatic

Studies, Vol. 62, No. 1 (Jun., 2002), pp. 135-178 Published by: Harvard-Yenching Institute. http://www.jstor.org/stable/4126586 . (accessed: February 5, 2011).

North Korea’s Endstate at the beginning of the 20th Century.

“The traveler is impressed in the North by the independent, manly spirit of many of the mountain people. A man seems to be more of a man in the North than in the South. In looking for the causes of this I find it in the marked absence of the so-called "gentleman" class. In the South the independent middle class is apt to be crushed out between the upper and the nether mill stones, between the strutting, conceited "yangban" and the obsequious, cringing serf. The North is brighter with hope because of the predominance of an independent middle class, who have to work for their own living, and as a result have more muscle and more brains.”

― William M. Baird, "Notes on a Trip into Northern Korea," 1897

Views of Historical Importance on North Korea

Proto - 3 Kingdoms. 238 BC: Establishment of Buyeo Kingdom. 200 BC: Establishment of Samhan confederacies. 195 BC: Establishment of Wiman Joseon Kingdom. 108 BC: Chinese Han Dynasty destroys Wiman Joseon Kingdom 108 BC: Han Dynasty Creates 4 commands in the north.

The 3 Kingdoms.

57 BC: Founding of Silla 37 BC: Founding of Goguryeo 18 BC: Founding of Baekje

Unified Silla and Balhae. 676 - 936

Goryeo. 936 - 1388

Joseon Dynasty. 1392 – 1896

Sino-Japanese War.

1895: China recognizes Korean independence in the Treaty of Shimonoseki1896: King Gojong flees to the Russian legation in Seoul.

Sources.Carter J. Eckert, el., "Korea, Old and New: History", 1990, pp. 2Mary E. Connor, "The Korea, A global studies handbook", 2002, pp. 9Sam Houston State University.

http://www.shsu.edu/~his_ncp/Korea.html

Formational Foundations

The Korean Empire Formed.

1897. Joseon dynasty proclaims the Korean Empire (1897–1910) with King Gojong becoming Emperor Gojong. This brief period saw the

partially successful modernization of the military, economy, Real property laws, education system, and various industries, influenced by the political encroachment into Korea of Russia, Japan, France, and the United States.

1904. Russo-Japanese War pushes the Russia out of the fight for Korea.

Start of Japanese Colonial Rule.

1910. Occupied Korea becomes a forced party to the Japan- Korea Annexation Treaty.

Koreas Division.

1948. Politics of the Cold War resulted in the establishment of two separate governments, North Korea and South Korea.

1950. North Korea invades the South.Sources.Carter J. Eckert, el., "Korea, Old and New: History", 1990, pp. 2Mary E. Connor, "The Korea, A global studies handbook", 2002, pp. 9Sam Houston State University. http://www.shsu.edu/~his_ncp/Korea.html

20th Century Key Events

Early Years.Born April 15, 1912 to a middle class family in a small farming community in the northern providence of North Cholla. His father was a elder in the protestant church, his mother was closely associated with their church too. In the 1920’s Kim’s family assisted with “anti-Japanese activities” This event is believed to be where Kim gained his political activism from.

In late 1920’s and 1930’s Kim joined many communist organizations and Anti-Japanese organizations such as; North East Anti-Japanese United Army, and Communist Party of China. It is rumored that this is when and where he became closely associated with Mao Zedong of the Chinese Communist Party

War between the Soviet Union and Japan.In 1937 Kim was appointed to be commander of the 6th Division. Although Soviet records show his unit only participated in one cross border raid into Korea with limited success, his biography states he was a major player in the war and a vital asset to the Soviets.

Kim Il-Sung (1912 -1994)

Return to Korea from Exile and Rise to Power.In 1945 Kim was installed by the Soviets as Head of People’sProvisional Committee. He increased his fame with the populace by creating their own army named Korean People’s Army and naming himself the commander and chief.

Leadership during the Korean War.On June 25, 1950 Kim decided to invade South Korea without the knowledge of the Soviets or the Chinese, the United States intervened later that year.

Early in the war the DPRK did extremely well pushing the UN troops back almost to the end of South Korean territory, but shortly following their offensive the UN troops conducted a counteroffensive that pushed to DPRK back almost to the border with China.

This led Kim’s government to retreat to China as to stay alive, but the Soviets would intervene and cause the UN troops to retreat back to the 38th Parallel, thus leading to a virtual stalemate until hostilities ended in 1953

Kim Il-SungRise to Power and Korean War

End of Korean War.

In 1953 after the end of hostilities Kim returned to Korea and took the position of Prime Minister of North Korea and Immediately started a reconstruction policy to rebuild a destroyed country this led to his extreme popularity among the people.

In the 1960’s the situation became difficult with both of North Korea’s major allies. The Sino Soviet conflict escalated in December of 1961 causing a rift between the People’s Republic of China and the Soviet Union causing the

Sino-Soviet Split. This further isolated North Korea forcing them to seek alliances with smaller nations outside of Soviet Union’s sphere of control.

Later Years.

Kim continued to be a very popular leader this lead to him being given the name of Dear Leader shortly after his death in 1994.

Kim Il-sungPost Korean War and Death

There two accounts of his birth place and the year.

The first account states that he was born in in Vyatskoye in 1941 according to Soviet Records.

The second account states that he was born in a secret military camp on Baekdu Mountain in Japanese occupied Korea on February 16, 1942 according to DPRK Records.

Education.His education consisted of general studies between September 1950 and August 1960. Throughout his education he was involved in political organizations. He was involved in the Children’s Union and Democratic Youth League (DYL). He studied Marxist political theory and other literature. He studied English at the University of Malta in the early 1970’s.

Likes and Dislikes.Kim Jong Il was a huge fan of American cinema, harbored a fear of flying like his father, loved Elvis Presley & Eric Clapton’s music (Clapton declined an invitation to play for him), he enjoyed basketball, was an avid golfer, and referred to himself as an internet expert.

Kim Jong-Il

Major Events in IL’s Rise to Power.

In February of 1982 Il was made a member of the Seventh Supreme People’s Assembly and was named “heir apparent” of North Korea. The government then began building a personality cult around him and in December of 1991 he was named the supreme commander of the North Korea Armed Forces.  

When Kim Il-sung died on July 8, 1994 they began the process of Kim Jong-il’s consolidation of power. This took three years. On October 8, 1997 he officially took the title of General Secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea, then in 1993 took the title of National Defense Commission.

Kim Jong-IL’s Rise to Power

Domestic/Economic Policies.

Kim adopted a “Military first” policy early in his career. His goal was “to strengthen the

country and reinforce the regime. He admired the Chinese rapid economic progress and

believed that “money should be capable of measuring the worth of all commodities.” Even

though he idealized Chinas economy, he distanced himself for China and Russia, two

traditional Korean allies.

Foreign Relations.

In 1998 South Korean president Kim Dae-jung implemented the “Sunshine Policy” which was an attempt to improve North-South. During this attempted peace period they began plans for Kaesong Industrial Park, a complex for North and South Korean companies located just north of the de-militarized zone.

The US and North Korea tried to make peace by signing an “Agreed Framework” which attempted North Korea to stop and eventually decease all nuclear weapons programs under the condition that the US would provide assistance “in producing two power-generating nuclear reactors.” North Korea later broke this agreement by creating nuclear weapons, and on October 9, 2006 it was reported that the North had successfully conducted their first underground nuclear test.

Kim Jong-ILPolicies

Kim Jong-unEarly Life

Childhood and Early Life.

January 8, 1983 or 1984 Kim Jong-un born

Most information on childhood does not exist due to redaction of records by the DPRKGovernment.

Education.

1993-1998 attended private English language school in Gumligen in Switzerland

While a student there his grades were deplorable and was absent from school frequentlymany classmates have stated sometimes he would only be at school during theafternoon, he excelled in music and technical skills.

1998-2000 Attended Public school in Koniz Switzerland

While a student here he also suffered from very deplorable grades much as in the schoolGumligen

Personality.

While as student at The International School of Bern many classmates referred to him as very westernized due to him owning a large amount of Nike shoes worth nearly $100,000. His infatuation with the NBA and specifically Michael Jordan. As a side note he would miss several consecutive days of school to attend or watch NBA games. He was also very interested in western movies and music much like his father. Also Kim Jong-un would put social events before his schooling, thus leading to deplorable grades.

Rise to Power.

He became the heir to his father’s throne by the stupidity of his older brother due to his attempted visit to Tokyo Disneyland, where he was apprehended with a false passport and the his middle brother showing feminine characteristics and showed weak leadership characteristics.

Kim Jong-unThe private life behind the public image

Facade Being Implemented by DPRK media.

He was an excellent student who made

outstanding grades, although proved false by

recent press release of his transcripts.

He is a military genus even though he has had no

military experience

He is exactly like his grandfather Kim Il-sung, it is rumored that in early 2011 he obtained plastic surgery to look more like his grandfather.

From Un 2002-2007 attended Kim IL Sung University in North Korea While as student here he was very successful making nearly perfect grades in all subjects

He excelled in economics in his schooling as to build popular sentiment within North Korea.

Numerous reports state he failed all classes in economics at Kim Il-Sung University.

Kim Jong-unThe Building of a New Leader

Future Policy/Actions/Beliefs.

Un may be trying to distance himself from his father or his fathers actions to be seen as a leader who cares about his people and would not lead them to famine as Il did.

Un will continue with the Military First Policy and will most likely launch a satellite Un will attempt to revive the economy by spending less on the military and focus money on growing the North Korean Economy.

We believe he may try to make North Korea to resemble China. He will back off on the Military and somewhat get in to the Western Economic idea a little but keep the powerful leadership and strong military.

He shows that he cares some what for the common man of North Korea and may back off a little from his fathers stance on his people, as he has shown at the inspections with smiles and hand shakes, and try to unite the people behind him.

Un may also be doing all of this because he has no record and needs to earn the peoples trust and respect, however this may change.

Kim Jong-UnFuture Predictions

Questions?