North Dakota Population ProjectionsLeading Trends Influencing North Dakota’s Future Population North Dakota’s population grew only slightly over the past decade. Data from the

North Dakota State Data Center at North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND

North Dakota Population Projections: 2005 to 2020

Including County Distributions by Age and Gender: 1980 to 2020 Issued September 2002

Issued September 2002

AuthorsRichard Rathge, Director

Mandy ClemensonRamona Danielson

ContributorsSara JohnsonKaren Olson

North Dakota State Data CenterDept. of Agribusiness & Applied Economics

North Dakota State University424 IACC Building, P.O. Box 5636

Fargo, ND 58105Phone: (701) 231-7980

Fax: (701) 231-9730URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

North Dakota Population Projections:2005 to 2020

Including County Distributions by Age and Gender: 1980 to 2020

Acknowledgments

This report was produced in conjunction with the 2002 North DakotaNeeds Assessment of Long-Term Care. The Long-Term Care Projectwas funded by a grant through the North Dakota Department of HumanServices. In addition, funding for this research was provided by theU.S. Department of Agriculture through the Regional Center for RuralDevelopment in North Dakota.

We wish to thank the North Dakota Department of Health, VitalStatistics Division, for their contributions of county data used togenerate birth and death rates.

For more information

Richard Rathge, DirectorNorth Dakota State Data Center424 IACC Bldg., P.O. Box 5636Fargo, ND 58105(701) [email protected]

Purchase a bound copy of this report for $15

Karen Olson, Information SpecialistNorth Dakota State Data Center424 IACC Bldg., P.O. Box 5636Fargo, ND 58105(701) [email protected]

Access the projections in summary form or the full report as a PDF file online

North Dakota State Data Center Website http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

North Dakota Population Projections: 2005 to 2020 North Dakota State Data Center iii

Table of Contents

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v - vii

Leading Trends Influencing North Dakota’s Future Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vRural Depopulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vOut-Migration of Young Adults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vIncreasing Proportion of Elderly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v

Table A. Population Trends in North Dakota by County: 1980 - 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viTable B. Population Trends in North Dakota by Age Cohort: 1980 - 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii

Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viii - ix

Cohort-Survival Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viiiBirth Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viiiDeath Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viiiMigration Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viii

Limitations of Population Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viiiReferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix

Organization of State and County Data Profiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x - xi

North Dakota County Map . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xQuick Facts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xPopulation Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xCensus Population Counts (Table 1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiPopulation Pyramids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiPopulation Projections (Table 2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi

State Data Profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-2

County Data Profiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-108

Adams . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3Barnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Benson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Billings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Bottineau . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Bowman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Burke . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Burleigh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Cass . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19Cavalier . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21Dickey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23Divide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Dunn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27Eddy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Emmons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31Foster . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Golden Valley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Grand Forks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Grant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39Griggs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41Hettinger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43Kidder . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45LaMoure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47Logan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49McHenry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51McIntosh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

North Dakota State Data Center North Dakota Population Projections: 2005 to 2020iv

Table of Contents (continued)

County Data Profiles (continued) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-108

McKenzie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55McLean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57Mercer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59Morton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61Mountrail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63Nelson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65Oliver . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67Pembina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69Pierce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71Ramsey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73Ransom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75Renville . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77Richland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79Rolette . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81Sargent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83Sheridan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85Sioux . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87Slope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89Stark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91Steele . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93Stutsman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95Towner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97Traill . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99Walsh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101Ward . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103Wells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105Williams . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107

North Dakota Population Projections: 2005 to 2020 North Dakota State Data Center v

Introduction

Leading Trends Influencing North Dakota’s Future Population

North Dakota’s population grew only slightly over the past decade. Data from the 2000 Census indicate that the stategrew by 0.5 percent between 1990 and 2000 reaching a population base of 642,200. This is the smallest relativegrowth of all 50 states. Three leading trends are seen to influence the state’s future population and comprise theunderlying assumptions used to project future county populations within North Dakota: rural depopulation, out-migrationof young adults and young families, and an increasing proportion of elderly.

Rural DepopulationDecades of movement of rural residents to the larger cities have depopulated much of North Dakota. This trend ofresidential consolidation in North Dakota is very similar to that occurring throughout the Great Plains. In the lastdecade, population growth occurred largely in the metropolitan and Native American reservation counties of thestate. In fact, only six of the state’s 53 counties grew between 1990 and 2000 (20 percent in Cass, 15 percent inBurleigh, 8 percent in Sioux, 7 percent in Rolette, 7 percent in Morton, and 2 percent in Ward). The long-termtrend of net out-migration is expected to continue. Thus, the majority of counties will continue to lose population. Currently, more than half of the 53 counties in the state have a population base below 5,000 residents. By 2020,nearly half of the counties will have a population base below 4,000 residents.

Out-Migration of Young AdultsIn addition to the general trend of rural depopulation, another significant pattern that will have a majorconsequence on the future of the state’s population is the out-migration of young adults and young families. Theloss of residents in their twenties and early thirties has increased markedly over the past two decades. This trendhas created an age imbalance that is very evident in the population pyramids. The loss of young adults meansthat there will be fewer parents of childbearing age and therefore fewer children. As a result, the number ofchildren will consistently decline for the majority of counties over the next 20 years.

Increasing Proportion of ElderlyAnother noteworthy trend is the increasing proportion of elderly (age 65 and older). In 1980, 12.3 percent of thestate’s population base was age 65 or older; in 2000, the proportion had increased to 14.7 percent. In addition, 27of the state’s 53 counties had more than 20 percent of their population base older than 64 in 2000. Nationally, theproportion of elderly is only 12.4 percent. In addition, North Dakota has the highest proportion in the nation ofelderly 85 years and older. These high proportions of elderly are due, in part, to a modest net in-migration ofseniors who are returning to the state to be close to family and friends. Elderly desiring to return to informal carenetworks, already a growing trend in population redistribution, will contribute to dramatic increases as the baby-boom population ages. If current trends continue, the number of elderly in the state will grow by 58 percent overthe next 20 years and represent nearly 23 percent of the state’s population. In addition, the number of olderseniors (i.e., 85 years of age and older) will grow by nearly two-thirds during that time frame.

These trends pose serious concerns for the state. For example, how will counties remain viable in the face ofcontinued rural depopulation? Population losses, which reduce community size, force residents to face rising costs of,increased travel times to, and decreased availability of goods and services. Can counties and the state ensureadequate healthcare in the face of rural hospital and clinic closings? What will be the impact of further schoolconsolidations on communities across the state? In addition, how will communities address the impact of out-migrationof young adults? Young adults provide the natural increase for a population base when they have children. Decliningnumbers of young adults will have an impact on future population growth. Moreover, young adults add vitality, newthoughts, and new ideas to their communities. They are also the newest generation of workers. The loss of this“human capital” will have significant effects on the state. Finally, are counties and the state positioned to offer servicesto a growing elderly population? Do they have adequate and appropriate housing? How should they deal with thoseelderly who are isolated? These and other concerns will be important topics of debate among policy-makers.

North Dakota State Data Center North Dakota Population Projections: 2005 to 2020vi

Introduction (continued)

Table A. Population Trends in North Dakota by County: 1980 - 2020

CountyCensus Population Counts Population Projections1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Adams 3,584 3,174 2,593 2,365 2,208 2,075 1,963Barnes 13,960 12,545 11,775 11,574 11,564 11,629 11,675Benson 7,944 7,198 6,964 7,101 7,329 7,571 7,835Billings 1,138 1,108 888 815 775 727 679Bottineau 9,239 8,011 7,149 6,839 6,661 6,420 6,202Bowman 4,229 3,596 3,242 3,177 3,181 3,108 3,038Burke 3,822 3,002 2,242 2,024 1,908 1,780 1,686Burleigh 54,811 60,131 69,416 70,524 72,531 73,881 74,727Cass 88,247 102,874 123,138 131,097 137,724 144,880 151,651Cavalier 7,636 6,064 4,831 4,391 4,070 3,830 3,614Dickey 7,207 6,107 5,757 5,536 5,426 5,365 5,283Divide 3,494 2,899 2,283 2,006 1,796 1,600 1,420Dunn 4,627 4,005 3,600 3,435 3,283 3,110 2,927Eddy 3,554 2,951 2,757 2,669 2,633 2,550 2,470Emmons 5,877 4,830 4,331 4,187 4,105 3,925 3,710Foster 4,611 3,983 3,759 3,637 3,557 3,395 3,216Golden Valley 2,391 2,108 1,924 1,856 1,800 1,723 1,658Grand Forks 66,100 70,683 66,109 66,545 67,551 67,988 68,238Grant 4,274 3,549 2,841 2,531 2,318 2,104 1,890Griggs 3,714 3,303 2,754 2,557 2,418 2,271 2,099Hettinger 4,275 3,445 2,715 2,432 2,228 2,046 1,877Kidder 3,833 3,332 2,753 2,548 2,385 2,194 1,995LaMoure 6,473 5,383 4,701 4,466 4,310 4,104 3,898Logan 3,493 2,847 2,308 2,202 2,115 2,032 1,919McHenry 7,858 6,528 5,987 5,787 5,760 5,736 5,701McIntosh 4,800 4,021 3,390 3,142 3,041 2,917 2,769McKenzie 7,132 6,383 5,737 5,391 5,197 5,033 4,924McLean 12,383 10,457 9,311 8,973 8,820 8,627 8,423Mercer 9,404 9,808 8,644 8,151 7,751 7,431 7,267Morton 25,177 23,700 25,303 26,272 27,481 28,550 29,521Mountrail 7,679 7,021 6,631 6,492 6,518 6,516 6,503Nelson 5,233 4,410 3,715 3,603 3,592 3,559 3,542Oliver 2,495 2,381 2,065 1,995 1,939 1,868 1,799Pembina 10,399 9,238 8,585 8,254 8,125 7,971 7,810Pierce 6,166 5,052 4,675 4,575 4,579 4,490 4,360Ramsey 13,048 12,681 12,066 11,591 11,447 11,212 10,958Ransom 6,698 5,921 5,890 5,834 5,844 5,860 5,840Renville 3,608 3,160 2,610 2,425 2,352 2,300 2,266Richland 19,207 18,148 17,998 17,715 17,570 17,414 17,218Rolette 12,177 12,772 13,674 13,687 13,965 14,019 14,029Sargent 5,512 4,549 4,366 4,258 4,230 4,225 4,272Sheridan 2,819 2,148 1,710 1,562 1,477 1,408 1,364Sioux 3,620 3,761 4,044 4,096 4,223 4,215 4,208Slope 1,157 907 767 705 675 639 605Stark 23,697 22,832 22,636 22,220 22,270 22,301 22,360Steele 3,106 2,420 2,258 2,190 2,134 2,102 2,074Stutsman 24,154 22,241 21,908 21,452 21,278 21,037 20,737Towner 4,052 3,627 2,876 2,666 2,521 2,440 2,382Traill 9,624 8,752 8,477 8,263 8,141 7,987 7,771Walsh 15,371 13,840 12,389 11,621 11,239 10,776 10,336Ward 58,392 57,921 58,795 57,427 56,728 56,349 55,809Wells 6,979 5,864 5,102 4,783 4,593 4,364 4,094Williams 22,237 21,129 19,761 18,556 17,959 17,318 16,679North Dakota 652,717 638,800 642,200 640,200 645,325 648,972 651,291

North Dakota Population Projections: 2005 to 2020 North Dakota State Data Center vii

Introduction (continued)

Table B. Population Trends in North Dakota by Age Cohort: 1980 - 2020

Age CohortCensus Population Counts Population Projections1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

0 to 4 54,752 47,845 39,400 38,254 37,359 37,868 36,5795 to 9 49,016 52,032 42,982 39,915 38,739 37,668 38,30110 to 14 51,043 48,820 47,464 43,015 39,968 38,795 37,67915 to 19 63,977 46,668 53,618 50,411 45,877 42,755 41,54720 to 24 69,393 47,873 50,503 53,389 49,614 46,251 44,29525 to 29 58,470 50,154 38,792 37,923 40,487 37,576 34,77130 to 34 45,687 53,861 38,095 37,316 36,576 38,898 36,15335 to 39 34,248 50,133 46,991 38,228 36,988 36,074 38,50340 to 44 29,398 39,887 51,013 46,420 37,925 36,309 35,23745 to 49 28,631 30,635 47,436 50,267 45,837 37,528 35,87650 to 54 30,497 26,449 37,995 46,562 49,481 45,220 37,10155 to 59 29,218 26,268 28,926 34,457 42,337 45,052 41,24760 to 64 27,942 27,120 24,507 26,272 33,908 41,715 44,43665 to 69 25,930 24,950 23,142 22,780 26,433 34,106 42,01570 to 74 21,217 22,591 22,759 21,451 22,942 26,579 34,29375 to 79 15,301 18,990 19,085 20,938 21,380 22,876 26,49380 to 84 9,857 13,284 14,766 17,313 20,647 21,042 22,50785 plus 8,140 11,240 14,726 15,289 18,827 22,660 24,258Total 652,717 638,800 642,200 640,200 645,325 648,972 651,291

North Dakota State Data Center North Dakota Population Projections: 2005 to 2020viii

Methodology

Baseline census figures for North Dakota are presented in this report by age and gender for 1980, 1990, and 2000along with projections for the years 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020. This report updates the projections released inJanuary 1999 (Rathge, et.al., 1999). The new projections were developed using a standard cohort-survival model. These new figures were based on census trends that reflect downward movement among most rural counties andupward growth among the counties with larger urban centers. Our assumptions reflect a weakening of the flow of NorthDakota’s population from the farmsteads and small rural communities into the metropolitan centers which will have amoderating effect on the state’s population. In addition, the state’s largest populated counties will continue to grow thusresulting in a modest growth pattern for North Dakota over the next two decades.

Cohort-Survival Model

A cohort-survival model is one of the most commonly used projection techniques. In brief, a set of rates for births,deaths, and migration are applied to baseline population figures to determine the population at a later point in time. Generally, this technique assumes that these rates will continue unchanged, in a linear fashion, through the course ofthe projection period. Although complete stability in rates is unlikely, the model does provide a reasoned scenario forprojecting the size and distribution of future populations. However, adjustments were made to the linear modeling,especially in the case of small counties, when such trends resulted in an unreasonable outcome. For example, it isunlikely that any age cohort would decline to zero, though this scenario would have been projected in several countiesif the model was left uncorrected. The assumptions made about trends in births, deaths, and migration are describedbelow.

Birth RatesThe number of births projected to occur in each county was derived from age-specific fertility rates. These rateswere based on a three-year average of the total number of births to mothers by age cohort for the years 1998through 2000. The three-year average was used to control for year-to-year variations. Fertility rates werecalculated for mothers between 15 and 44 years of age. Births occurring to mothers outside these ages wereaveraged into the top and bottom age cohorts. County-specific fertility rates were used in the model. It wasassumed that these rates would continue throughout the projection period.

Death RatesRates of death in North Dakota are very similar among counties. Therefore, a single statewide rate was used forall counties. The rates reflect age- and gender-specific mortality based on an average for the years 1998 through2000. Once again, the three-year average controlled for year-to-year fluctuations in deaths. The actual rates werecalculated using a standard life table (Hamm and Azam, 1991).

Migration RatesAge- and gender-specific migration rates were calculated using a residual technique (Shryock and Siegel, 1976). The rates reflect the age-specific migration patterns from 1990 to 2000. In some cases, the migration rates forcounties with small populations were modified to better reflect historical trends. For example, in some counties thenumber of residents in various age groups is extremely small. Slight changes in these age groups can result insizeable migration rates which do not accurately reflect the migration experience. Therefore, migration rates weremoderated in extreme cases.

Limitations of Population Projections

Population projections are mathematical calculations that illustrate what the population will be in the future if specificassumptions persist throughout the projection period. Although information depicting North Dakota's residentpopulation is relatively accurate, the ability to forecast substantial changes in any socio-economic or demographicprocess which may alter current population trends is tenuous at best. Therefore, it is wise to utilize these projectionswith caution. They should not be viewed as the sole element in planning or decision-making, rather as only one tool inthe process.

North Dakota Population Projections: 2005 to 2020 North Dakota State Data Center ix

Methodology (continued)

References

Hamm, Rita R. and Syed Azam. North Dakota Life Tables 1960,1970,1980, and 1990. North Dakota Census Data Center Report No. 17, Department of Agricultural Economics, North Dakota State University, Fargo, NorthDakota, September 1991.

Rathge, Richard W., Carrie Jacobsen, Andrea Huseth, Abu Husain, Karen Olson, Kay Olson and Andrea Schuler. North Dakota Population Projections by Age and Gender, 2000-2015. North Dakota State Data Center, NorthDakota State University, Fargo, North Dakota, January 1999.

Shryock, Henry S. and Jacob S. Siegel. The Methods and Materials of Demography. Condensed edition by Edward G.Stockwell. New York: Academic Press, 1976.

North Dakota State Data Center North Dakota Population Projections: 2005 to 2020x

Organization of State and County Data Profiles

North Dakota County Map

A map of North Dakota highlighting the location of each county is included in each data profile. The map below showsthe names and locations of each of the state’s 53 counties.

Quick Facts

Quick facts are included to provide some background information for the state and each of its 53 counties. Data,except for the capital and county seat, come from the 2000 Decennial Census and can be found online at the U.S.Census Bureau’s website: http://www.census.gov. Quick facts included are:

# North Dakota’s capital and the county seat for each county# North Dakota’s national population rank and the state population rank of each of the counties (population for the

United States in 2000 was 281,421,906)# The median age in years for North Dakota and each county (median age for the United States in 2000 was 35.3)# The number of persons per square mile, or population density, for North Dakota and each county (persons per

square mile for the United States in 2000 was 79.6)

Population Trends

The Population Trends: 1920 - 2020 charts show the population trendline for the state and each county using U.S.Census Bureau data from 1920 through 2000. The population projections through 2020 are also shown, as a dottedextension of the census trendline. At 642,200 in 2000, North Dakota has shown a 5.7 percent decrease in populationsince its peak in 1930 at 680,845. The state’s population is projected to increase by 1.4 percent by 2020, to 651,291. The trends for most counties show continued population decline, except for those counties that have larger urbancenters, which show increases in population.

North Dakota Population Projections: 2005 to 2020 North Dakota State Data Center xi

Organization of State and County Data Profiles (continued)

Census Population Counts (Table 1)

Table 1 consists of the census population counts by age and gender, as well as totals, for the state and each county in1980, 1990, and 2000. The population is divided into seventeen 5-year age cohorts, starting with 0 to 4, in addition tothe final cumulative cohort of persons age 85 and older. Table 1 offers a useful historical context to the populationprojections in Table 2.

Population Pyramids

Population pyramids are used in this report to illustrate the age-specific distribution of the population. Two pyramidsare generated for the state and each county. The first represents the population distribution as enumerated during the2000 Census. The second pyramid illustrates what the population distribution is projected to look like in the year 2020,though significant changes in socio-economic and demographic trends could alter this distribution. Each bar in thepyramid represents a 5-year age cohort with males depicted on the left and females on the right. The bottom bar on thegraph represents the youngest age cohort, persons 0 to 4 years of age. The top bar represents those seniors age 85and older. The bars are in percentages, thus the pyramid provides an easy way to see the relative distribution of thepopulation by age and gender.

The best way to interpret population pyramids is to compare and contrast the bars that represent age cohorts. Thesmaller the bar, the smaller that age cohort is relative to others. For example, when viewing North Dakota’s pyramid for2000 on page 2, one can quickly see that the three bars representing the young adult population (i.e., ages 20-24, 25-29, and 30-34) are among the smallest of all age cohorts in the state. This reflects the significant loss of young adultsin North Dakota through out-migration. In turn, the loss of young adults has a direct effect on the number of births. Persons in the age cohorts from 20 to 34 are primarily responsible for new births in the state. It is not surprising,therefore, that the bar representing persons under the age of 5 is also relatively small. In contrast, the size of the barsrepresenting the baby-boom population, those born between 1946 and 1962, is the largest in the state (i.e., age cohorts40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59). The senior population also is relatively large and the proportion of elderly is growing (i.e.,persons 65 years of age and older) in North Dakota. Contrasting the pyramid for 2000 with 2020 on page 2, one canquickly see the changes that are expected in each age cohort given current trends. On a statewide level, for example,the bars representing the age cohorts become very uniform. This means the proportion of elderly will increase,becoming very similar to younger cohorts in size. For most counties, however, the elderly will represent the largestproportion of all age groups.

Population Projections (Table 2)

Table 2 consists of the population projections by age and gender, as well as totals, for the state and each county for2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. The population is divided into seventeen 5-year age cohorts, starting with 0 to 4, inaddition to the final cumulative cohort of persons age 85 and older. The projections were determined using the Cohort-Survival Model described in the Methodology section.