North Ayrshire Council Housing Need and Demand … · 1 . This Housing Need and Demand Assessment has been developed in partnership with the North Ayrshire Housing Market Partnership.

North Ayrshire Council Housing Need and Demand Assessment Final Report 14th September 2017

Contents

Executive Summary 2 Purpose of the HNDA 2 Housing Market Drivers 2 Housing Stock Profile and Pressures 4 Housing Requirement: Estimating Housing Need and Demand 5 Specialist Provision 7

1. Introduction 11 1.1 Purpose of the HNDA 11 1.2 Governance and Consultation 12 1.3 Defining Housing Market Areas 13

2. HNDA Toolkit 16 2.1 HNDA Toolkit 16 2.2 Quality Control 17 2.3 Limitations of the Report 18

3. Key Housing Market Drivers 19 3.1 Introduction 19 3.2 Demography 19 3.3 Economic Context and Trends 27 3.4 Affordability 34 3.5 Key Issues Table 42

4. Housing Stock Profile, Pressures And Management Issues 43 4.1 Introduction 43 4.2 Stock Profile 43 4.3 Stock Pressures 50 4.4 Stock Management 55 4.5 Future Housing Supply 55 4.6 Key Issues Table 57

5. Estimating Future Housing Need and Demand 58 5.1 Introduction 58 5.2 The HNDA Tool 58 5.3 Key Issues Table 66

6. Specialist Provision 67 6.1 Health and Wellbeing in North Ayrshire 68 6.2 Accessible and Adapted 75 6.3 Wheelchair Housing 80 6.4 Non-permanent housing 83 6.5 Supported Provision 88 6.6 Care/Support Services for Independent at Home Living 94 6.7 Gypsy Traveller Site provision 99 6.8 Key Issues Table 103

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This Housing Need and Demand Assessment has been developed in partnership with the North Ayrshire Housing Market Partnership. The following named officers have signed this document on behalf of North Ayrshire Council and the Housing market Partnership, that they have jointly produced this HNDA and agreed the Core Outputs. This statement is in fulfilment of the requirements of Core Process 6 as detailed in the HNDA Manager’s Guide (June 2014). Signed on behalf of North Ayrshire Council:

Yvonne Baulk Head of Physical Environment North Ayrshire Council Date: 28/08/2017

Catriona McAuley Head of Economic Growth North Ayrshire Council Date: 28/08/2017

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Executive Summary Purpose of the HNDA

A Housing Need and Demand Assessment (HNDA) is an important evidence base required by the Scottish Government to inform the preparation of Local Housing Strategies (LHS), under the Housing (Scotland) Act 2001, and the preparation of Strategic and Local Development Plans, under the Town and Country Planning (Scotland) Act 1997 (as amended). The purpose of the HNDA is to provide an evidence base to inform the Local Housing Strategy and Development Plan. Specifically, it is expected that the HNDA should underpin the following key areas of housing policy and planning:

• Housing Supply Target(s) (HSTs) - to inform the setting of a HST for use in the LHS and Development Plan. The HST sets out the amount and type of housing to be delivered over the period of the plan(s). For more details on the HST see the Managers Guide.

• Stock management - to assist understanding of the current and future demand for housing by size, type, tenure and location in order to optimise the provision, management and use of housing stock. This in turns feeds into policy and planning decisions about future stock in the LHS.

• Housing investment - to inform future housing investment decisions, for example through Strategic Housing Investment Plans (SHIPs).

• Specialist Provision - to inform the provision and use of specialist housing and housing-related services to enable independent living for all, as expressed in policy in the LHS and to inform planning decisions e.g. land for Gypsy/Travellers. See Chapter 5 for more information on Specialist Provision.

• Geographic distribution of land - to inform the spatial allocation of land through the Development Plan for new housing at both Housing Market Area level and local authority level.

Housing Market Drivers

Key issues in relation to Housing Market Drivers identified in the HNDA include: Demographic issues for the Local Housing Market:

• Declining Population: The population of North Ayrshire is falling and projected to continue to

fall between 2012 to 2037 by 8.8%. Older and aging Population: North Ayrshire has an above average proportion of the population in the over 65 age group. This age group is projected to increase while younger age groups are projected to fall over the period to 2037. A key issue for the future provision of housing will be the need for specialist accommodation and properties which can be adapted to meet the needs of the aging population. There will be a need for a number of flexible housing options to accommodate smaller household units. The majority of older people will continue to live in their own homes as they age, and there will be implications in terms of property condition, repairs and maintenance. In order to enable older people to remain in their own sufficient care provision will require to be in. Older owner occupiers may require more support to release equity in their homes in order to manage repairs and maintenance.

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• Sheltered housing provision will need to be fit for purpose and meet current demand and aspirations of older people in terms of quality, size and services available. Services which may be required include: wardens, community alarms, telecare and the use of new technologies.

• Differences across Sub Housing Market Areas (SHMA)s: Different socio-demographics characterise the different areas within North Ayrshire; from the relatively wealthier, older and less populated areas of the North Coast and Arran through to the urban, and more deprived areas of the Three Towns and Irvine/Kilwinning. A key issue for the future provision of housing is the need to take different approaches in different SHMAs. The Isle of Arran is characterised by high levels of second homes and holiday homes and affordable homes for rent and sale should be provided. The Three Towns SHMA has high levels of deprivation.

• Migration: The greatest area of negative migration is observed within the 16 to 44 age groups and new housing provision should take cognisance of the predominant age groups.

Therefore the LHS should respond to the need for:

• the future provision of flexible specialist accommodation; • properties to be adapted to meet the needs of the aging population; • mechanisms to allow people who wish to remain in their own home, and to live

independently (including care, support and good property condition), and • mechanisms to address the outward migration of young people.

Future provision of housing should be mindful of the need to take different approaches in different SHMAs. Affordability Issues for the Local Housing Market

• Incomes: Incomes vary dramatically across the local authority area and affordability remains an issue for many households. House Prices are 41% lower than the Scottish median and have fallen at a greater rate over recent years, although they have now started to recover. Some households will, therefore be more able to afford home ownership while others may be unable to move due to negative equity.

• Average (mean) rents in the Ayrshires1 area between 2010 and 2015 have increased particularly for 4 bedroom properties, which have seen an increase of 15.0%. 1 bedroom shared and 3 bedroom properties have also seen increases to a lesser extent, by 0.9%, 2.2% respectively. Rents for 1 and 2 bedroom properties have decreased at 3.3% and 0.8% respectively.

• Social housing rents have risen by 6.2% since 2013/14. A key issue for future provision will be monitoring affordability of social housing and any potential convergence with private rented sector rents and affordability of owner occupation which may have a negative impact on demand for the sector.

The LHS should detail how costs associated with housing provision will be monitored, as any convergence between private and social rents, and the affordability of owner occupation may have a negative impact on demand across rented housing and therefore require a policy response. Economic Issues for the Local Housing Market

• Economy: Historically, the economy of North Ayrshire has been dominated by the traditional and declining manufacturing industries such as coalmining, steelworks and textiles particularly in the SHMAs of Garnock Valley and Three Towns. There is consequently a need

1 The Broad Rental Market Area in which North Ayrshire sits is ‘the Ayrshires’ and is shown as area 14 in Figure 3.10 on Page 42 below

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to diversify into other economy sectors such as tourism. This will require adequate provision of accommodation for those who work in the industry.

• Deprivation: Areas of high unemployment and deprivation are concentrated in the urban SHMAs, particularly in Three Towns. 12 (6.7%) of North Ayrshire’s 179 datazones were found in the 5% most deprived datazones in Scotland. This compares to 10 (5.6%) in 2009, 9 (5%) in 2006 and 6 (3.4%). Levels of deprivation therefore appear to be increasing in the local authority, or at least, parts of North Ayrshire are not improving, as quickly as in other parts of Scotland. These areas are most likely to require social rented housing.

• Commuter Towns: Affluent commuter towns exist in the North Coast SHMA where transport links to Glasgow are better. These areas are most likely to require market and low cost home ownership opportunities.

The LHS and LDP must identify how to provide affordable housing solutions towards areas with declining economy or high deprivation. Housing Stock Profile and Pressures

Key issues in relation to Housing Stock Profile and Pressures identified in the HNDA include: Housing Quality:

• Condition: The local authority has 48% of all its stock in the private sector in need of urgent

repair, higher than the average for Scotland of 38%. The level of disrepair within the public sector is similar at 47%, again higher than the national average.

• The number of dwellings needing adaptations however, are slightly lower than the Scottish average.

The LHS should detail how poor condition will be addressed across the private housing sector. Housing Stock Pressures:

• Second Home Ownership: Very high levels of second home ownership in the Arran SHMA; 25.1% compared with 3.0% across the local authority and 1.5% nationally.

• Social Renting: North Ayrshire has a higher than average level of socially rented properties, 27.9% compared with 24.3% nationally. Again rates of social renting differ across the SHMAs with the Three Towns SHMA having the highest level at 34.1%. The North Coast SHMA conversely has a very low rate of social renting at just 9.1%. Social housing is predominantly from local authority stock.

• There is limited evidence available in relation to need and demand in the private rented sector and this is a key issue for the LHS.

The LHS should seek to address information gaps in terms of housing stock pressure in the private rented sector. Future Social Housing Supply:

• A total of 456 new build social housing units are planned between 2014/15 and 2019/20. • Over half of this new supply will be in Irvine/ Kilwinning (56%, 257 units). The Three Towns

will receive 31% of the new supply (141 units), while 7% (32 units) will be in the North Coast and 5% (24 units) will be in the Garnock Valley. A further two units will be purchased through the Empty Homes Buy Back Scheme.

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• Forty four per cent (44% 201 units) will be general needs provision, 41% (186 units) will be Amenity dwellings, 9% (40 units) will be Sheltered housing and 6% (29 units) will be Wheelchair accessible accommodation.

• All the units contained within the SHIP 2015 – 2020 are social rented units. • Based on the 2015/16 Housing Land Supply Audit NAC estimate that there will be a total of

2,772 new build completions for owner occupation between 2016 and 2020. The number of anticipated completions rises steadily from 249 during 2016 to 800 during 2020, averaging 544 per annum. This is considerably more than the 101 to 105 units for owner occupation identified by the HNDA and is therefore a key issue for the LHS.

The LHS and LDP should clarify why the forecast number of completions exceeds the shortfall identified in this assessment (ie. 101 to 105 units). Sustaining Communities:

• North Ayrshire Council has undertaken a programme of targeted regeneration through the demolition of pockets of low demand housing. In these areas it was considered the house type did not match the overall picture of demand. New build social housing has been built on the site of the demolitions.

• There are currently no low demand units or difficult to let stock. The LHS & LDP detail policy interventions to ensure communities are sustainable. This could build on existing demolition and rebuild programmes, or identify new mechanisms. Housing Requirement: Estimating Housing Need and Demand

The LHS and LDP should set achievable housing supply targets based on the estimated need, considering deliverability within the North Ayrshire context, and the local strategic landscape. Future Need

• Between 2016 – 2020 the estimated need per annum across the whole of North Ayrshire is 317, ranging from:

o Between 110 and 116 units in the social rented sector o Between 50 and 55 units in the mid market/ below market rented sector o Between 47 and 53 units in the private rented sector o Between 101 and 105 units for owner occupation

As shown in the Housing Need and Demand Summary on the following page the total additional future housing need is 1,585 by 2020. This is comprised of 317 units per annum. Between 2021 and 2025 the estimated need per annum across the whole of North Ayrshire is zero for all four tenures. The HNDA would normally report beyond 2025 but the figures beyond 2025 are also zero. The LHS and LDP should consider the need for housing supply targets that extend beyond the duration of the LHS (ie. beyond 2021) by reviewing historic new build completion rates, considering the wider policy context and through discussion with private developers.

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The following template provides a summary of the Housing Need and Demand Assessment: HOUSING NEED AND DEMAND ASSESSMENT

Key Findings Template: Estimate of Additional Future Housing Units Number of years to

clear existing need

Total Households with existing need (net)

1148

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Household Projection Period

2016 - 2020 Total Number of New Households over the Projection Period 670

Principal

Projection Variant Projection Variant Projection Variant Projection

OWNER OCCUPATION

525 510 520 505

PRIVATE RENT

260 235 265 245

BELOW MARKET RENT

265 275 250 260

SOCIAL RENT 535 570 550 580 Total Additional Future Housing Units2

1,585

1,585

1,585

1,585

Between 2021 and 2025 the estimated need per annum across the whole of North Ayrshire is zero for all four tenures. The HNDA would normally report beyond 2025 but the figures beyond 2025 are also zero.

2 Where total additional units do not correspond to the sum of individual components this is due to rounding. The HNDA Model provides detailed figures.

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Specialist Provision

Key issues in relation to Specialist Housing Provision identified in the HNDA include: Accessible and Adapted Housing

• Consultation with RSL stakeholders indicates that there is an ongoing demand for aids and adaptations with recent increases in demand for wet floor and level access showers.

• Demand currently outstrips the available resources for aids and adaptations. • In terms of complex needs and physical disability current provision is in the form of

sheltered accommodation and 43 residential care units. It is anticipated that there will be 18 individuals requiring alternative accommodation over the next few years. This should be in the form of barrier free single level accommodation and through the development of core sheltered housing.

• The Council has embarked on a programme of reprovisioning all of its sheltered housing complexes. All units delivered through this programme will be accessible and have a minimum of one bedroom. The units will have ‘dementia friendly’ design. Establishing high levels of fuel efficiency is also a key part of the programme.

• Demographic projections are likely to require additional provision of new build, adaptations and care at home services.

The LHS and LDP should respond to the need for:

• continuing demand for adaptions that currently outstrip resources. • barrier free specialist housing solutions • maximising the use of existing adapted stock • dementia suitable housing provision

The demographic projections of an increasingly ageing population means it will be likely that the demand for adaptations and barrier free housing will increase. Wheelchair Housing

• By analysing the North Ayrshire Housing Register, the required ratio of housing for wheelchair users was identified. This showed that as at August 2014 1% of demand for one bedroom properties comes from wheelchair users, 2% of demand for two bedroom properties.

• The Council recognises that occasionally it may be necessary to build larger ‘wheelchair user’ housing to meet the needs of individual households.

• The Council has embarked on a programme of reprovisioning all of its sheltered housing complexes. All units delivered through this programme will be accessible and have a minimum of one bedroom. The units will have ‘dementia friendly’ design. Establishing high levels of fuel efficiency is also a key part of the programme.

The LHS and LDP should respond to the need for:

• better information on the housing needs of wheelchair users • provision of wheelchair user housing (at least 3% of all provision)

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• ad hoc larger ‘wheelchair user’ housing to meet the needs of individual, exceptional, households.

Long term demographic and health changes are likely to mean there will be additional requirements for wheelchair accessible properties. Non-permanent Housing

• There is no specific student accommodation in North Ayrshire. This is based on low demand for such services from existing and potential students. The vast majority of students at Ayrshire College are already resident in the area when they apply for and take up a place to study.

• There is no identified need for student accommodation in the future. Students face similar pressures to other young people in the area in terms of accessing accommodation.

• Occupancy rates within emergency and temporary accommodation units are high, averaging 97% per annum. There are seasonal variations throughout the year but overall the levels of accommodation are considered to be in line with demand. The Council carries out an annual review of temporary accommodation provision and usage.

• The vast majority of homeless approaches are from single person households. A large proportion are also under the age of 35. The under-35 age group also frequently displays multiple and complex needs which causes issues in terms of the provision of temporary accommodation and resettlement in permanent accommodation.

• Welfare Reform will introduce further impacts in relation to under-35s and their ability to afford both temporary and permanent accommodation. There are few shared properties and HMOs available in which under 35s could access a shared room.

• The Council has committed to working with COSLA and the Scottish Government to support refugees in coming to North Ayrshire. Depending on family sizes, over a period of time the Council will offer accommodation and other support to 50 to 100 refugees.

The LHS should provide a policy response to:

• Addressing homeless approaches from single person households, a large portion of whom are under the age of 35 and display multiple and complex needs

• The affordability of temporary and permanent accommodation for under 35 years olds, resulting from Welfare Reform.

• The few shared properties and HMO’s available in which under 35’s could access a shared room.

Supported Provision

• It is anticipated that there will be 35 individuals with mental health issues requiring alternative accommodation over the next few years. Twelve of these will be as a result of moves from slow stream hospital rehabilitation and community alternatives will be required.

• It is considered that many of the others would benefit from support in accommodation of the core and cluster model – with the need identified as 22 in core accommodation, and 10 in cluster.

• It is anticipated that there will be 32 individuals with a learning disability requiring alternative accommodation over the next few years. The assessed need indicates a requirement for 7 to be in ‘core model’ tenancies, with a further 6 able to be supported along the lines of cluster (outreach support from the core); 7 would benefit from shared tenancies, 4 from individual tenancies and 8 from a residential facility. The residential facility

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would need to be a bespoke housing environment to accommodate the most challenging clients, those with complex learning and physical disabilities, and behaviours that place self or others at risk

• Demand for North Ayrshire Women’s Aid service has remained consistent for approximately 15 years and no additional accommodation is sought.

• Based on the projected increase in the number older people in North Ayrshire it is anticipated that an increase in care and support services which enable people to live in their own home or in community settings for longer will be required.

• At March 2015, there were 520 units of ‘sheltered housing’ for older people, 858 units of medium dependency housing and 3,341 dwellings with community alarms. These figures exclude any private providers of older people’s housing.

The LHS should provide a policy response to meeting the future housing needs for the ageing population, people with mental health conditions, and people with learning disabilities.

Care/ Support Services for Independent Living

• There is a higher proportion of older people resident in North Ayrshire; 29.3% compared with 23.2% nationally. Some areas within North Ayrshire have a particularly high proportion of residents in the over 60 age group; Arran and the North Coast specifically.

• The proportion of older people is expected to increase. The latest population projections produced by the National Records of Scotland, forecast an increase of 92% in the over 75 age category over the period 2012 to 2037, a relatively higher increase than the projected increase of 85% for Scotland as a whole.

• Based on the projected increase in the number older people in North Ayrshire and the continuing shift away from institutional models of support it is anticipated that an increase in care and support services which enable people to live in their own home or in community settings for longer will be required.

• There are high levels of demand for the Care and Repair, Small Repairs and Handyman Services all of which enable older people to remain in their own homes.

• A review of older people specific budgets and outcomes across housing providers, Social Care and the NHS should be undertaken to identify any duplication of services and identify opportunities for joint working and efficiency.

The LHS should provide details of how older people will be supported to remain at home to facilitate independent living. Site Provision

• Scotland’s Census 2011 indicated there were 58 households where the household reference person indicated that they were White: Gypsy/Traveller for the North Ayrshire area.

• There is one Gypsy Travellers site in North Ayrshire with 16 individual pitches including four pitches that are for mobility access.

• The site Occupancy rate for 2015 was 97.4% and there is currently a waiting list of 12 applicants.

• No need for additional provision has been identified. As part of the HNDA and LHS considerations, NAC has taken part in a desktop research study with other partners across Glasgow, the Clyde Valley and Ayrshire. The study did not identify North Ayrshire as an area where further site provision is required.

• A recent Council survey with Gypsy Travellers in North Ayrshire (2016), noted that of travellers visiting North Ayrshire, 88% of respondents said they would not move to the Redburn site; 75% said they would not like to relocate to North Ayrshire; and 69% said that

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they only intended to stay in the area for less than a month. This information illustrates the transient nature of travellers and further illustrates the lack of demand for further site provision in the area.

There are no outstanding issues that require a response.

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1. Introduction 1.1 Purpose of the HNDA

A Housing Need and Demand Assessment (HNDA) is an important evidence base required by the Scottish Government to inform the preparation of Local Housing Strategies (LHS), under the Housing (Scotland) Act 2001, and the preparation of Strategic and Local Development Plans, under the Town and Country Planning (Scotland) Act 1997 (as amended). The Scottish Government’s HNDA Practitioner’s Guide (June 2014), expects the HNDA to underpin the following key areas of housing policy and planning:

• Housing Supply Target(s) (HSTs) • Stock management • Housing investment • Specialist Provision • Geographic distribution of land

The purpose of the HNDA is to provide an evidence base to inform the Local Housing Strategy and Development Plan. Specifically, it is expected that the HNDA should underpin the following key areas of housing policy and planning:

• Housing Supply Target(s) (HSTs) - to inform the setting of a HST for use in the LHS and Development Plan. The HST sets out the amount and type of housing to be delivered over the period of the plan(s). For more details on the HST see the Managers Guide.

• Stock management - to assist understanding of the current and future demand for housing by size, type, tenure and location in order to optimise the provision, management and use of housing stock. This in turns feeds into policy and planning decisions about future stock in the LHS.

• Housing investment - to inform future housing investment decisions, for example through Strategic Housing Investment Plans (SHIPs).

• Specialist Provision - to inform the provision and use of specialist housing and housing-related services to enable independent living for all, as expressed in policy in the LHS and to inform planning decisions e.g. land for Gypsy/Travellers. See Chapter 5 for more information on Specialist Provision.

• Geographic distribution of land - to inform the spatial allocation of land through the Development Plan for new housing at both Housing Market Area level and local authority level.

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1.2 Governance and Consultation

The production and sign off of the HNDA has been overseen by a Housing Market Partnership (HMP). The North Ayrshire HMP comprises the following representatives from stakeholder organisations within North Ayrshire: Table 1.1 Housing Market Partnership Members Attendee Organisation Emma Anderson Older People Housing Manager, NAC Housing Services Jeff Bell Housing Supply Co-ordinator, Scottish Government Trudi Fitzsimmons Divisional Manager, NAC Housing Services Anne-Marie Fox-Smith

Housing Services Manager, Irvine Housing Association

Billy Kirkwood Director, RDK Construction Alasdair Laurenson Team Manager (Regeneration), NAC Economy and Communities Freya Lees Director, North Star Consulting & Research Helen McArthur Senior Manager, Health & Social Care Partnership Lesley McVeigh Planning Officer, NAC Planning Steve Morley Research Analyst, NAC Chief Executives Linda Anderson Executive Director of Operations, Cunninghame Housing Association Lynne Richardson Development & Strategy Manager, NAC Housing Services In North Ayrshire external stakeholders remain central to the HNDA process. While HMPs do not need to include external stakeholders, we have carried out the consultation with the following stakeholders during the development of the HNDA. Table 1.2 Stakeholders Consulted in the development of the HNDA Consultee Organisation Linda Anderson Executive Director of Operations, Cunninghame Housing Association, Janeine Barratt NAC Housing, Senior Manager Homelessness and Community Safety Thelma Bowers NAC, Head of Service (Mental Health) Helen Canning Director Student Services, Ayrshire College Trudi Fitzsimmons NAC Housing, Divisional Manager, HQ Neale McIlvanney NAC, Strategic Planning Manager Chris McNey NAC, Planning Officer Andy Mackay NAC, Economist Elaine Gibson Director, ANCHO Steven Good Director of Property Services, Cunninghame Housing Association Blair Kerr NAC Housing, Gypsy/Traveller Co-ordinator Alasdair Laurenson Team Manager (Regeneration), NAC Economy and Communities NAC HRA Business Plan Implementation Group North Ayrshire Network, including representation from Registered Tenants Organisations North Ayrshire Older Persons Forum Marianne McManus NAC Housing, Divisional Manager, West Lesley McVeigh NAC Planning, Planning Officer Carol Nelson NAC Housing, Divisional Manager, East Landlord Working Group including PRS Landlords, Estate agents and letting agents Lynne Richardson NAC Housing, Development & Strategy Manager

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David Rowland Health & Social Care Partnership, Head of Service (Health & Community Care) Nicola Thom Interim Managing Director, Irvine Housing Association A full record of consultation undertaken is presented as Appendix 2 to this report. .

1.3 Defining Housing Market Areas

A Housing Market Area (HMA) is a geographical area where the demand for housing is relatively self-contained, i.e. where a large percentage of the people moving house or settling within the area have sought a dwelling only within that area. North Ayrshire is a Housing Market Area. Housing Market Areas are areas where households either currently live or work and, if they wished to move, areas where they would search for alternative accommodation. Therefore, if housing need is identified in a particular housing market area, it is reasonable to assume that the household would expect to meet that need in the same area. For the purposes of strategic planning for housing it is necessary to undertake an assessment of housing need and demand at housing market area (HMA) level. This will provide, for each HMA an estimate of:

• Households living in housing need • Households requiring affordable housing now and in the future • Households requiring open market housing now and in the future • The shortfall of affordable housing now and in the future.

There is no single method for establishing Housing Market Areas and it is recognised that different approaches are required in different areas. Potential approaches include:

• Analysis of the origin and destination of house buyers. • Travel to Work Areas, mainly defined using census data. • Community boundaries such as Community Council areas. • Pre-defined boundaries such as Structure Plan boundaries. • Local knowledge, other recognised boundaries such as school catchment areas.

The approach used in North Ayrshire used the methodology published by Communities Scotland (Housing Market Areas in Scotland: Definition and Review, December 2003), which outlines the process for defining and updating housing market boundaries as follows:

• Define Settlement Backbone: identify the major settlements in North Ayrshire, i.e. the centres of local employment;

• Determine Movement Patterns: using Sasines data, analyse transactions to determine the origin of house purchasers, defining movement in relation to each major settlement;

• Identify Policy Parameters: identify key developments in policy or infrastructure which impact on the movement of households between and within local housing market areas in North Ayrshire;

• Analyse Critical Developments: assess the impact of any housing developments on the mobility of households; and

• Revise Housing Market Area Boundaries: reflect policy and infrastructure considerations.

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• Sales transactions and patterns of household movement across the North Ayrshire area were analysed using the most recent Sasines data available over a five year period from 2003 to 2007.

The full Housing Market Area Structure in North Ayrshire: A Consultation can be found at https://www.south-ayrshire.gov.uk/documents/housing%20market%20area%20structure%20in%20ayrshire%20-%20a%20consultation.pdf The 17 settlements were allocated to five housing market areas as follows:

• Arran (Arran) • 3 Towns (Ardrossan, Saltcoats and Stevenston) • Garnock Valley (Barrmill, Beith, Dalry, Glengarnock and Kilbirnie) • Irvine (Irvine and Kilwinning) • North Coast & Cumbraes (Fairlie, Largs, Millport, Seamill, Skelmorlie, and West Kilbride)

The configuration mirrors the 2007 SHMAs. The HNDA Tool is pre-populated with SHMAs that authorities have provided. In considering the continued relevance of the SHMAs that have been in place since 2007, no circumstances have been identified that would indicate the SHMAs are no longer accurate. The repercussions of the 2007/2008 economic recession have driven some significant changes to the way in which North Ayrshire Council plans for housing (including management of existing stock and provision of land for - and delivery of - new homes), however, there is no evidence that the impact of the recession and the slow pace of the recovery of the housing market have altered the SHMAs, or created new SHMAs. NAC analysis of CHMA 2016 data on house sales3 shows that self containment within each SHMA remains high. In addition, analysis of the Scottish Government's returns for new build completions shows a significant post recession decline in completion of new build houses, compared with both pre-recession new build peaks, and long-term averages of completions. Rather than any geographical trend emerging that conflicts with the SHMAs, new build completions would appear to reinforce the SHMA geographies. The main pattern to have emerged from the economic collapse is the low completions rate for new build housing across all SHMAs; but particularly in the Garnock Valley, which reflects the very low completions across the towns in that grouping - and reinforcing the rationale for that SHMA. Part of the evidence-gathering stage for the Council's second local development plan focussed on engagement with Homes for Scotland. Through the industry, feedback was provided on the marketability for new housing development of settlements across North Ayrshire. The feedback reflects the existing SHMAs and indicates that North Ayrshire is a challenging commercial market for house-builders, but that, in particular, there is very little private interest in settlements in the Garnock Valley; there is no commercial market interest from volume house builders in Arran; while there were distinctions between Irvine, Kilwinning, three towns and North Coast market areas in terms of marketability. This supports the retention of the SHMAs as they currently are.

3 NAC Analysis of House Sales Buyer Origin data as provided by CHMA 2017, 20170526 Sub Housing Market Analysis

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Another significant trend to have emerged is the increasing importance of the delivery of social housing, and the reliance on the SHIP for provision of new houses. As the impact of the recession continues, a pattern has emerged showing that private sector completions are no longer almost entirely driving new house building in North Ayrshire; but that social housing is increasingly important to providing new houses. It is noteworthy that affordable housing completions have been recorded at comprising over half of all new builds in 2014/15. Again, this does not give rise to geographical trends that would question the rationale for the existing SHMAs. In terms of management, maintenance and provision of new affordable stock, investment is aligned to needs that are more localised than SHMAs - i.e. at settlement (or sub-settlement) level through, for example, development on existing planned/programmed sites, replacement or upgraded amenity housing, or new housing as and where opportunities arise (e.g. regeneration sites). Through investment in affordable housing in this way, no spatial issues have emerged to suggest existing SHMAs are not relevant. More broadly, there have been no commercial or other significant developments (for example regional scale employment drivers) that have altered the make-up of the North Ayrshire economy, such that would drive new or altered SHMAs. This is also due to the slow post recession recovery. The Council is the largest partner in the North Ayrshire Housing Register (which covers 97% of all shared housing register) and leads a working group of all partners that meets on a regular basis to monitor and maintain the register. It is the responsibility of each landlord to monitor patterns and trends. The Council's 8 Area Housing Managers (who work across the SHMAs) have not identified any alteration, in the last 5+ years, of demand patterns, from where people are currently living to where they wish rehoused. Overall, there is no evidence to suggest the SHMAs identified in 2007 are no longer relevant. The changed economic circumstances that have emerged in North Ayrshire post recession have given rise to strategic housing issues that will be considered throughout the HNDA, however, those issues either reflect and reinforce the relevance of the existing SHMAs, or, at least, do not indicate that new or altered SHMAs have emerged.

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2. HNDA Toolkit HNDA Guidance requires the CHMA to appraise the process and methodology of the HNDA as being ‘robust and credible’. This section provides an overview of the HNDA Toolkit, including the requirements which need to be satisfied in order to achieve a ‘robust and credible’ appraisal. The Scottish Government Directorate for Planning and Environmental Appeals has commented that, where the CHMA has confirmed that an HNDA is robust and credible, the approach used will not normally be considered further at a Development Plan examination.

2.1 HNDA Toolkit

The guidance sets out four Core Outputs and six Core Processes which are required to achieve ‘robust and credible’ status. Each stage of the HNDA is accompanied by the template provided by the CHMA, which draws out the key issues for subsequent LHS and Development Plans. A template summarising the key findings is also provided at the start of this HNDA (Core Process 5 section 1.5 of this report). Table 2.1 below sets out the Core Processes and Outputs, and their location within this report. The North Ayrshire HNDA report reflects the structure and approach described in the HNDA Practitioner’s Guide (Scottish Government, 2014). Table 2.1 HNDA Core Criteria for Robust and Credible Status No. Core Outputs Chapter 1 Key housing market drivers

Identifies the key factors driving the local housing market. This should consider household formation, population and migration, housing affordability including income, house prices, rent levels, access to finance and key drivers of the local and national economy. This analysis should reflect the data that have been inputted to the HNDA Tool and the choice of scenarios that are chosen to run the Tool.

Chapter 3 Key Housing Market

Drivers

2 Estimate of additional housing units This figure should be broken down into the number of households who can afford a) owner occupation b) private rent c) below market rent or d) social rent. Estimates must be reported for each year of the projection, each five year period within the projection and the cumulative total at the end of the projection. The Tool outputs these. The projection period and geography chosen should fit with those required for the LHS and Development Plan.

Chapter 5 Estimating Future Need and Demand

3 Specialist Provision Identifies the contribution that Specialist Provision plays in enabling people to live well, with dignity and independently for as long as possible. Identifies any gap(s)/ shortfall(s) in that provision and the future level and type of provision required. Considers evidence regarding property needs, care and support needs and locational/ land needs. Gives due consideration to the provisions of the Equality Act (2010).

Chapter 6 Specialist Provision

4 Housing stock profile, pressures and management issues Consider what existing housing stock is available to meet the housing needs of the local population. This should identify any under-supply or surplus of certain kinds of housing. This will demonstrate where the existing housing stock may be pressured and where that stock may

Chapter 4 Housing Stock Profile, Pressures and

Management Issues

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need to be managed in order to meet the housing needs of the local population. The types and number of in-situ solution used should be evidenced. Stock should be considered by size, type, condition, occupancy, concealed households and turnover (relets and voids). These should be considered by tenure and location as appropriate.

Core Processes 1 A Housing Market Partnership has overseen production of the HNDA

and other stakeholders have been engaged with separately. Chapter 1

Introduction 2 Housing Market Areas have been agreed with the Housing Market

Partnership and are considered in the production of all core outputs. Chapter 1

Introduction and throughout

3 The methodology, limitations and quality control mechanisms are given full technical explanation.

Chapter 5 Estimating Future Need and Demand

4 Assumptions, judgements and scenarios are well reasoned and transparent.

Chapter 5 Estimating Future Need and Demand

5 Key findings have been summarised, at the start of the HNDA, using the template provided and in no more than 2 pages.

Chapter 1 Introduction

6 HNDAs have been officially signed-off by the Head(s) of Housing and the Head(s) of Planning or the designated senior official. In North Ayrshire the corresponding roles are the Head of Physical Environment and the Head of Economic Growth. Where Local Authorities have jointly produced an HNDA they all agreed their core outputs. A statement to this effect has been included as part of the official sign-off.

Page 1 Signatories

2.2 Quality Control

Ensuring the Housing Need and Demand Assessment (HNDA) process delivers a quality document that clearly articulates housing need in North Ayrshire was the primary goal of North Ayrshire Council, the Housing Market Partnership and North Star Consulting & Research. A series of Housing Market Partnership meetings informed the content of the document, and the Partnership was issued with a copy of the draft document to ensure it reflected their input. Partnership members were also invited to feedback any quality issues in terms of ambiguity, statistical errors and lack of referencing. North Ayrshire Council also undertook multiple accuracy and quality checks prior to agreeing the final document that was issued to the CHMA on 1st December 2016. Officers from both Housing & Planning Services subjected the document to review. The document was amended as appropriate and submitted to the Head of Service (Physical Environment) and the Head of Service (Economic Growth) for final review and sign off. Both Heads of Service subjected the document to further checks prior to sign off, and the document received the final revisions requested by the Council at this point. The CHMA appraisal of the HNDA outlined eight recommendations to achieve robust and credible status. Following work to meet these recommendations, final accuracy and quality checks were carried out again by North Star Consulting & research and officers from both NAC Housing & Planning Services.

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2.3 Limitations of the Report

There are a number of limitations of the report due to available datasets. In particular there is limited available data on the private rented sector. Where possible our analysis has sourced Census and Scottish Government published datasets but there are a number of areas where data has been sourced locally. One such limitation is that of the social housing data based on analysis of the Common Housing Register (CHR). Similarly the specialist provision section has a number of limitations due to lack of available data. There are gaps in the data for some of the six Specialist Provision topics featured in this chapter, and these are referenced in detail in the relevant sections. In general these gaps tend to relate to the extent of current shortfalls in provision and the future level and type of provision required. Given the growing importance of Specialist Provision in the future, the Council are committed to addressing these data gaps. A joint Council/Health & Social Care Partnership Group was established in summer 2017 to identify baseline need data and future estimated need for those who require a specialist housing solution. It is anticipated that a database will be established by early 2018, and thereafter the group will continue to meet to review and update the data on an ongoing basis, as well as providing recommendations on how these housing needs will be met.

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3. Key Housing Market Drivers

3.1 Introduction

This chapter provides an overview and insight into the market drivers in North Ayrshire as described in ‘Core Output 1’ of the Housing Need and Demand Assessment Toolkit:

North Ayrshire, is a diverse local authority covering urban areas such as Irvine and the three towns of Ardrossan, Saltcoats and Stevenston, but also rural areas such as the Isle of Arran and parts of the Garnock Valley. As a result the area has differing issues and challenges. Where possible, data has been collected at the Sub-Housing Market Area (SHMA) in order to identify the particular market drivers within North Ayrshire. The Five SHMA were identified as part of the previous North Ayrshire HNDA and are shown in Figure 3.1 below (the Irvine SHMA incorporates Irvine and Kilwinning). Figure 3.1: The Five Sub-Housing Market Areas

Source: North Ayrshire Local Housing Strategy 2011- 16

3.2 Demography

As with other parts of Scotland, North Ayrshire faces various issues and challenges associated with its changing demography. On average, the local authority area has a declining population, however it is also an aging population, particularly in the more rural SHMAs of Arran and the North Coast. Differences also exist within the local authority; from the deprived urban areas of Irvine/Kilwinning and the Three Towns through to the remote Isle of Arran. Each of these sub-areas face their own challenges, many of which have implications for the provision of housing.

Core Output 1: Key housing market drivers: Identifies the key factors driving the local housing market. This should consider household formation, population and migration, housing affordability including income, house prices, rent levels, access to finance and key drivers of the local and national economy. This analysis should reflect the data that have been inputted to the HNDA Tool and the choice of scenarios that are chosen to run the Tool.

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3.2.1 Population

Table 3.1 provides a breakdown of the population for each of the five SHMAs in North Ayrshire. It shows large differences within the local authority area ranging from a population of just 4,660 in Arran to almost 57,000 in the Irvine/Kilwinning SHMA, which makes up 41% of the total population of North Ayrshire. There are also differences within the local authority in terms of age. Arran for example has almost double the national average in the over 75s age group, the North Coast also has high levels of those aged 75 and over while Irvine/Kilwinning, Three Towns and Garnock Valley all have higher representations in the under 16 age groups. Across North Ayrshire as a whole there is a relatively lower proportion of residents within the working age groups of 16 to 60 when compared to the average for Scotland. There is also a higher proportion in the over 60s age group. Table3.1: Population of North Ayrshire SHMAs by Age Age Groups

All people 0 to 15 16 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 59

60 to 74

75+

Arran 4,660 13.6% 11.0% 13.0% 22.3% 25.9% 14.1% Garnock Valley 20,900 18.1% 16.0% 19.2% 22.3% 16.7% 7.7% Irvine/Kilwinning 56,634 18.7% 17.4% 19.5% 21.8% 16.0% 6.6% North Coast 22,769 14.9% 11.7% 15.6% 21.7% 23.2% 12.8% Three Towns 33,183 18.4% 17.5% 18.9% 21.6% 16.5% 7.2% North Ayrshire 138,146 17.7% 16.1% 18.5% 21.8% 17.7% 8.2% Scotland 5,295,403 17.3% 18.5% 20.0% 21.1% 15.5% 7.7% Source: 2011 Census (Table KS102SC - Age structure)

3.2.2 Population Projections

Population projections by age group are produced by the National Records of Scotland (NRS), with the most recent produced in 2012. Table 3.2 sets out the projections for North Ayrshire from 2012 to 2037. As of 2012, North Ayrshire had a total population of 137,560 with the largest age group falling within the working age bracket of 30-49 years (26%). The younger age group of 0-15 years represents 18% of the total population, while those over the age of 65 represents 20% of the population. Starting from this base, the population is projected to decrease overall by 8.8%. However, as we can also see from Figure 3.2, there are significant rises in the over 65 age group, particularly in the over 75s where the population is projected to increase by 92%. This has been offset by projected decreases in other age groups, most notably in the working age group (16-64) where a 26% decline is projected.

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Table 3.2 Population Projections for North Ayrshire 2012 to 2037 Age Groups

2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 % Change

0-15 24,170 23,341 23,025 22,158 21,287 20,172 -16.5 16-29 21,991 21,362 19,885 18,500 18,085 17,729 -19.4 30-49 35,339 31,073 28,309 28,018 26,809 25,778 -27.1 50-64 28,978 29,874 29,918 27,139 23,594 20,771 -28.3 65-74 15,442 16,968 17,262 17,913 19,106 18,675 20.9 75+ 11,640 13,332 15,876 18,363 20,282 22,340 91.9 ALL 137,560 135,950 134,275 132,091 129,163 125,465 -8.8 Source: NRS 2012 Based Population Projections Table 2 Figure 3.2 also highlights the projected change in population of North Ayrshire compared with Scotland overall. It shows increases in all age groups for Scotland as a whole but declines in North Ayrshire for those in all age groups under 64 years. For all age groups the population in North Ayrshire is projected to fall by 8.8% in contrast to Scotland, where an increase of 8.8% is projected. Figure 3.2 Population Projections: Change Between 2012 to 2037 by Age Group

Source: NRS 2012 Based Population Projections Population projections from NRS have limitations. The projections implicitly show what is expected to happen if past trends continue to be observed and no policy action is taken - they are trend-based rather than policy-based forecasts of what the government expects to happen. Many social and economic factors influence population change including policies adopted by both central and local government. Specifically, the projections do not take account of the recent referendum vote to leave the European Union. However, the projections provide a good basis for informing council decisions. The influence of local and national policy could drive growth above this level as it is a stated aim of public policy to mitigate the effects of the aging population and to tackle population decline. Therefore, the above is consistent with the ‘no real growth’ scenario.

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3.2.3 Household Composition

The composition of a household is an important factor to consider when determining housing supply, given that different compositions will require different types of housing. Table 3.3 provides information on housing composition by SHMA. It shows that on average, North Ayrshire has a slightly higher proportion of older, single residents; 14.4% compared with 13.1% nationally, as well as having a higher than average proportion of single parents; 13% compared with 11.1% nationally. There are differences within the SHMAs however, with the Irvine/Kilwinning SHMA having a higher than average proportion of families; 18.1% compared with 17.3% nationally and both Arran and the North Coast having a significantly higher proportion of lone residents over the age of 65 years; 20.8% and 19.4% respectively compared with an average for Scotland of 13.1%. The Three Towns SHMA also shows a slightly higher than average proportion of residents in the ‘one person household, aged under 65 years’ compared with the Scottish average; 23.8% compared with 21.6%

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Table 3.3 Household Composition

Number of Households

One person household: Aged 65 and over

One person household: Aged under 65

One Family only: All aged over 65

Couple no children

Couple with dependent children

Couple with non dependent children

Single parents

Other

Arran 2,126 20.8% 15.3% 15.3% 19.0% 13.3% 5.6% 6.3% 4.4% Garnock Valley 9,457 14.0% 20.3% 7.8% 16.7% 16.9% 7.3% 13.4% 3.5% Irvine/Kilwinning 24,878 12.6% 19.5% 7.2% 17.3% 18.1% 7.3% 14.2% 3.9% North Coast 10,823 19.4% 17.3% 13.2% 18.6% 15.2% 6.0% 7.8% 2.7% Three Towns 15,214 13.3% 23.8% 6.8% 14.6% 15.4% 6.7% 15.7% 3.7% North Ayrshire 62,498 14.4% 20.1% 8.5% 16.8% 16.6% 6.9% 13.0% 3.6% Scotland 2,372,777 13.1% 21.6% 7.5% 17.5% 17.3% 6.4% 11.1% 5.5% Source: 2011 Census (Table KS105SC - Household composition)

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3.2.4 Household Projections

Household projections for North Ayrshire are produced by the National Records of Scotland and the latest estimates are outlined in Table 3.4 and in Figure 3.3. Projections cover the period 2012 to 2037 and provide figures for three different migration assumptions. The ‘Principal Projection’ projects a rise in the number of households from just over 62,500 in 2012 to 63,339 in 2027 before declining to 61,758 in 2037. The projections based on a low migration scenario show a steeper decline while the projections based on a high migration scenario show an overall increase in the number of households over the period 2012 to 2037. Table 3.4: Household Projections for North Ayrshire All Households 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 Principal Projection 62,519 63,165 63,505 63,339 62,699 61,758 Low Migration 62,519 63,047 63,164 62,741 61,812 60,562 High Migration 62,519 63,259 63,847 63,944 63,558 62,900 Source: 2012 Based Household Projections from NRS For all migration assumptions, the number of households are expected to peak by 2027, as shown in Figure 3.3. Figure 3.3 Household Projections for North Ayrshire

Source: 2012 Based Household Projections from the NRS Household projections have also been produced for each local authority by the age of the head of the household (see Table 3.5). This provides an idea of how projected households will look, which has implications for the type of housing that should be provided in the future. In line with the population projections, there is a clear difference in household projections based on the age of the head of household.

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Here we can see that the household projections for younger households, where the head of the household is under 59 years, there is expected to be a decline over the period 2012 to 2037. This compares with modest growth across Scotland as a whole. In contrast, there is projected to be a rise of 89% for those households where the head of house is over the age of 75 years, slightly above the rate for Scotland as a whole. Table 3.5 Household by Age of Head of Household, North Ayrshire and Scotland

Base-year

2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 % Change in North Ayrshire 2012 to 2037

% Change in Scotland 2012 to 2037

16 to 29 years

5,661 5,782 5,523 4,876 4,809 4,783 -16% 5%

30 to 44 years

14,436 12,811 12,706 13,012 12,779 12,203 -15% 7%

45 to 59 years

18,270 18,548 17,049 14,998 13,361 13,242 -28% 1%

60 to 74 years

15,762 16,452 16,875 17,365 17,331 15,700 0% 16%

75+ years 8,391 9,573 11,353 13,088 14,420 15,831 89% 82% Total Households- North Ayrshire

62,520 63,166 63,506 63,339 62,700 61,759 13% N/A

Total Households- Scotland

2,387,207 2,477,212 2,565,377 2,644,418 2,716,698 2,782,774 N/A 17%

Source: North Ayrshire Council Area Demograpic Factsheet, NRS, Published in 2015 (NB: NAC totals do not agree with the original due to rounding)

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3.2.5 Migration

Over the period 2012 to 2014 there was a net outflow of 286 people from North Ayrshire per year, meaning that less people entered North Ayrshire (3,516 per year) than left (3,802 per year). See Table 3.6. The largest group of in-migrants was in the 16 to 29 year group where an average of 930 people came to live in North Ayrshire. This was, however, offset by an even larger out migration of 1,292 in the same age category. Table 3.6 Average Migration In and Out of North Ayrshire 2012 to 2014 Age Group In Out Net 0-15 672 620 52 16-29 930 1,292 -362 30-44 830 914 -84 45-64 750 668 82 65+ 334 308 26 All Ages 3,516 3,802 -286 Source: North Ayrshire Council Area Demograpic Factsheet, NRS, Published in 2015 Figure 3.4 shows all migrants as per percentage of the total population. It shows that overall, North Ayrshire has a relatively low and stable flow of in and out migration, with the largest variation in the working age groups of 16 to 46 years. Figure 3.4 All Migrants as a Percentage of Population by Single Year of Age, 2012 to 2014, North Ayrshire

Source: North Ayrshire Council Area Demograpic Factsheet, NRS, Published in 2015

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

0 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86

Perc

enta

ge o

f pop

ulat

ion

In migrants

Net migrants

Out migrants

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3.3 Economic Context and Trends

North Ayrshire has, and continues to face, a number of economic challenges including levels of high unemployment and low economic activity, concentrations of deprivation, and lower than average levels of income. Historically, the economy of North Ayrshire has been dominated by traditional manufacturing industries such as coalmining, steelworks and textiles. However these industries have been in decline for many years and the area has looked towards other economy sectors such as tourism for growth. Within North Ayrshire each SHMAs experiences different opportunities and challenges. The area as a whole is within community distance, and has good transport links, to Glasgow. Most notable is the proximity of the Garnock Valley to the city being only 12 miles to Glasgow Airport and 20 miles to Glasgow city centre. Tourism is the main economy sector in North Ayrshire, and this is most pronounced on Arran, and to a lesser extent the North Coast. Irvine is the most urban and developed settlement within the region presenting retail and employment opportunities. The Irvine/Kilwinning SHMA also boasts good transport links to Glasgow and the rest of Ayrshire via the A78/A71 and M77. In the Three Towns SHMA, however, levels of deprivation are high and unemployment significantly higher than the average for Scotland.

3.3.1 Socio-Economic Status and Employment

Table 3.7 provides data on the socio- economic status of North Ayrshire residents. As with Scotland as a whole, the largest grouping with 20.4% is for residents in classification 2 (Lower managerial, administrative and professional occupations). However North Ayrshire has a higher than average proportion of its population in classification 6 (Semi-routine occupations); 16.5% compared with 13.3% nationally, and relatively fewer in Classification 1 (Higher managerial, administrative and professional occupations); 8.4% compared with 12.4% across Scotland. Again there are variations within the local authority. For example, the North Coast SHMA has a higher than average proportion of residents in Classification 1 (Higher managerial, administrative and professional occupations); 16.6% compared with 12.4% nationally. The Three Towns and Garnock Valley SHMAs both have higher proportions of workers in groups 6 ((Semi-routine occupations) and 7 (Routine occupations). Eight per cent (8.1%) of all people aged under 65 in households in the Three Towns SHMA fall within the ‘Never Worked and Long Term Unemployed’ Classification compared with just 4.0% nationally. Across the local authority only 1.5% are full term students compared with 3.0% across Scotland which perhaps reflects the lower proportion of residents in North Ayrshire within the 16 to 29 age category.

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Table 3.7 Socio-Economic Status and Employment All people

aged under 65 in households

1. Higher managerial, administrative and professional occupations

2. Lower managerial, administrative and professional occupations

3. Intermediate occupations

4. Small employers and own account workers

5. Lower supervisory and technical occupations

6. Semi-routine occupations

7. Routine occupations

8. Never worked and long-term unemployed

L15 Full-time students

Arran 3,080 9.0% 21.9% 6.1% 25.6% 11.1% 12.9% 11.9% 1.2% 0.3% Garnock Valley 17,133 7.9% 18.5% 10.6% 10.2% 12.7% 16.6% 16.2% 6.1% 1.2% Irvine/Kilwinning 47,519 6.7% 20.1% 10.5% 8.6% 13.3% 17.4% 15.7% 6.2% 1.5% Three Towns 27,466 6.6% 17.8% 10.1% 7.3% 12.8% 18.8% 16.7% 8.1% 1.9% North Coast 16,561 16.6% 27.5% 10.4% 13.6% 9.3% 10.7% 8.2% 2.5% 1.1% North Ayrshire 111,759 8.4% 20.4% 10.3% 9.7% 12.4% 16.5% 14.8% 6.0% 1.5% Scotland 4,342,234 12.4% 22.7% 10.6% 10.1% 10.3% 13.7% 13.3% 4.0% 3.0% Source: 2011 Census (Table QS608SC - National Statistics Socio-economic Classification (NS-SeC) of Household Reference Person (HRP) - People aged under 65)

Employment in North Ayrshire has changed little over time. In 2004 there were 58,000 residents in employment. North Ayrshire is still recovering from the job losses of the recession and the number of jobs has been growing recently, since 2012-13. New employment growth has boosted the proportion of full-time posts and this will have increased the wages and salaries in the local economy, helping to sustain local businesses through multiplier effects (secondary spending of wages and salaries locally). The Council’s commitment to Inclusive Growth, The Ayrshire Growth Deal and planned investments in employability and skills as well as infrastructure will provide an economic stimulus which, in time, would be expected to offset the minor longer term employment reduction identified above, maintaining the number of jobs over the long term. The overall long term future trend could therefore reasonably be assumed as static employment, consistent with the ‘no real growth’ scenario.

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3.3.2 Travel To Work Areas

Figure 3.5 provides information on travel to work flows in and out of North Ayrshire using data from the 2011 Census. It shows a total inflow of commuters from UK local authorities into North Ayrshire of 9,808 and a total outflow of 21,345. Overall therefore, there is a net decrease in population of 11,537 people. Of those commuting to work in North Ayrshire from other UK local authorities, the majority are from either East Ayrshire (29%) or South Ayrshire (28%). The majority of out commuting is to Glasgow City (26%) followed by East Ayrshire 20%, South Ayrshire (16.4%) and Renfrewshire (16.3%). Figure 3.5 Travel to Work Information for North Ayrshire

Source: Figure extracted from Nomis, Originally sourced from the Census 2011

3.3.3 Gross Value Added (GVA)

GVA data is provided for local authorities by the Scottish Government and is set out in Table 3.8 and in Figure 3.6 below. Table 3.8 provides time series information for North Ayrshire from 2008 to 2013. It shows a total decline in the number of those in employment over the period of 7% and a decline in the total number of employees of 6.4%. However, despite there being fewer workers in the local authority area, the total turnover has increased and as a result the GVA per Head of population has risen from an average of £35,369 in 2008 to £45,767 in 2013, representing a 29% increase in productivity over the period.

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Table 3.8 GVA Data for North Ayrshire North Ayrshire

Total Employment (Ths)

Total Employees (Ths)

Total Turnover (£m)

GVA Basic Prices (£m)

GVA Per Head (£)

2008 31.1 29.6 3,272.6 1,101.5 35,369 2009 29.1 27.4 3,043.5 951.3 32,713 2010 27.9 26.8 3,162.4 996.8 35,776 2011 28.2 26.7 3,457.0 1,102.0 39,093 2012 27.2 26.0 3,356.0 1,209.0 44,392 2013 29.0 27.7 3,500.9 1,328.7 45,767 Source: Scottish Government, Scottish Annual Business Statistics, 2014 Figure 3.6 provides information on GVA per Head for North Ayrshire compared with Scotland as a whole over the same time period. For both geographies the pattern has been similar; dropping during the recession but gradually increasing from 2009 onwards, however the GVA per Head for North Ayrshire has been lower throughout the period than the Scottish average, almost £8,900 less in 2013 or 16.2%. This difference in GVA per Head output nonetheless does seem to be narrowing. Figure 3.6 GVA per Head, 2008 to 2013

Source: Scottish Government, Scottish Annual Business Statistics, 2014

3.3.4 Economic Inactivity and Unemployment

The Office for National Statistics provide information on an annual basis on economic activity and unemployment and this has been set out in Table 3.9. It shows North Ayrshire as having 73.1% of its population ‘Economically Active’, this compares with 77.6% across Scotland as a whole. 65.8% of the population is ‘In Employment’ compared with 72.9% nationally and correspondingly, the percentage of people ‘Unemployed’ in North Ayrshire is also higher at 9.1% compared with 5.9% nationally.

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Table 3.9 Economic Inactivity North Ayrshire North Ayrshire North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain

(Numbers) (%) (%) (%)

All People Economically Active 64,300 73.1 77.6 77.5

In Employment 57,900 65.8 72.9 73.1

Employees 50,000 56.9 64.6 62.5

Self Employed 7,100 7.9 8 10.1 Unemployed (Model-Based)

5,800 9.1 5.9 5.7

Source: Office of National Statistics, Annual Population Survey, 2014 Table 3.10 provides the claimant count in North Ayrshire compared with Scotland and the rest of Great Britain. The Claimant Count is the number of people who are receiving benefits principally for the reason of being unemployed. Since Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) was introduced in October 1996, this has consisted of those people claiming JSA or National Insurance (NI) credits. From April 2013, those people receiving Universal Credit (UC) principally for the reason of being unemployed also meet the definition of the Claimant Count4. Here we can see a relatively high count of 3.9% which compares to a rate of 2.9% at the Scotland level and 1.8% across Great Britain. Table 3.10 Claimant Count October 2015 North Ayrshire North Ayrshire North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain

(Numbers) (%) (%) (%)

All People 3,285 3.9 2.1 1.8 Males 2,195 5.4 2.9 2.2

Females 1,090 2.5 1.3 1.3

Source: Office of National Statistics, NOMIS Claimant Count Data for Local Authorities, October 2015

3.3.5 Deprivation

As with all local authorities, there are areas within North Ayrshire where poverty and deprivation are concentrated and it is important to highlight these when it comes to housing provision. Figure 3.7 provides an illustration of where deprivation is spread across North Ayrshire and it shows a particular concentration in the Three Towns of Ardrossan, Saltcoats and Stevenston.

4 Unemployment and the Claimant Count, ONS

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Figure 3.7 SIMD 2012 for North Ayrshire

Source: SIMD 2012 The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 2012 provides detailed information at datazone level for North Ayrshire as well as all other local authorities in Scotland. It shows that 12 (6.7%) of North Ayrshire’s 179 datazones were found in the 5% most deprived datazones in Scotland. This compares to 10 (5.6%) in 2009, 9 (5%) in 2006 and 6 (3.4%) in 2004, See Figure 3.8 below. Levels of deprivation therefore appear to be increasing in the local authority, or at least, parts of North Ayrshire are not improving in terms of deprivation, as quickly as in other parts of Scotland. Figure 3.8 SIMD 2012 for North Ayrshire: Change in 15% Most Deprived Datazones 2009 to 2012

Source: SIMD 2012

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Table 3.11 shows the number of datazones by area in North Ayrshire. Of the 46 in the most deprived 15%, 19 are located in the three towns. A further 16 datazones are located in Irvine and 5 in Kilwinning. Table 3.11 Deprivation by Area North Ayrshire Most deprived 15% 2009 2012 % Change 2009 to 2012 Irvine 14 16 2 Kilwinning 6 5 -1 Three Towns 19 19 0 Garnock Valley 4 6 2 North Coast 0 0 0 Arran 0 0 0 North Ayrshire 43 46 3 Source: SIMD 2009 and 2012 Two key drivers of economic status are the availability of plentiful local jobs and a skilled workforce ready to fill them. Areas in North Ayrshire differ widely in these respects. A reliable indicator of economic status is the SIMD which uses a suite of indicators to identify where local economic and social conditions are poor. When local people fail to secure employment due to an insufficient local jobs base then employment and income deprivation are a result. The table below shows the extent of deprivation experienced across locality areas. Some areas experience very little deprivation while others experience significant deprivation. Not only that, but the picture is fluid over time. The table shows deprivation across the six Locality Partnership Areas (using counts of datazones). The number of deprived datazones in Irvine has almost doubled since the first SIMD in 2004, with 3 added since the last SIMD in 2012. The Three Towns has also seen an increase of 3 (from 15 to 18) over the long term although there was a decrease of 1 since 2012. The Garnock Valley has seen a deteriorating picture since 2004 with an increase of 5 deprived datazones. Until the most recent SIMD neither the North Coast nor Arran had any deprived datazones. However, in 2016 the North Coast has seen one datazone identified as being deprived. Table 3.12 Deprivation by HMA 2004 to 2016 Irvine 2004 2006 2009 2012 2016 Change

2004-16 Change 2012-16

Kilwinning 10 10 14 16 19 9 3 Three Towns

6 4 6 5 6 0 1

Garnock Valley

15 16 19 19 18 3 -1

North Coast

2 3 4 6 7 5 1

Arran 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 North Ayrshire

33 33 43 46 51 18 3

Source: NAC Analysis of SIMD Using Counts of Datazones

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3.4 Affordability

3.4.1 House Prices

The trend in house prices for North Ayrshire in recent years has shown a similar pattern to the national average although the median house price has been consistently lower. In 2014, the median house price in North Ayrshire was £100,000, 29% lower than the equivalent for Scotland at £140,950 and the sixth lowest of all 32 local authorities in Scotland. Furthermore, the median house price in North Ayrshire has fallen over the period from 2008 to 2014 from £107,000 to £100,000. This compares with a small rise nationally from £140,000 to £140,950 or 0.7%, See Figure 3.9. Figure 3.9 Median House Prices 2008 to 2014

Source: Register of Scotland (RoS) Land Value Monthly Data Extracts Table 3.12 provides time series information on house prices for North Ayrshire along with information on the most expensive house price quartile and the least expensive quartile. For 2014, the data shows a price differential between the most and least expensive properties of almost £100,000 or 61% which is slightly higher than the price differential at a national level which equates to 58%. The price differential has also widened over the period 2008 to 2014 in North Ayrshire. Median prices for properties in the lower quartile in 2008 were higher at £78,000 compared with £63,000 in 2014 while properties in the upper quartile have retained their value at £160,000.

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Table 3.13 Second Hand and Company Sales New Build House Sales, 2008-2014 North Ayrshire Area 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 North Ayrshire

Lower Quartile

£78,000 £70,000 £70,000 £67,000 £55,000 £57,000 £63,000

Median £107,000 £99,000 £105,000 £101,750 £87,500 £90,000 £100,000 Upper Quartile

£160,000 £150,000 £162,000 £160,000 £145,000 £148,000 £160,000

Scotland Lower Quartile

£97,500 £91,000 £91,000 £90,000 £85,000 £86,000 £90,000

Median £140,000 £133,000 £137,000 £137,000 £130,050 £135,000 £140,950 Upper Quartile

£201,000 £190,000 £203,000 £204,995 £198,000 £205,000 £213,000

Source: Register of Scotland (ROS) Land Value Monthly Data Extracts, 2015

3.4.2 House Sales

The volume of sales in North Ayrshire from 2008 to 2014 is presented in Table 3.13. It shows that total sales in 2014 amounted to 1,709, accounting for just 2.1% of all sales across Scotland. In line with the national average, the volume of sales in North Ayrshire have decreased over the seven year period by 13.9%. However, this is a larger decrease than the Scottish average of 3.7%. The volume of sales has been steadily rising since 2011, as is the case for Scotland as a whole. Table 3.14 Second Hand and Company Sales New Build House Sales, 2008-2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 % Change North Ayrshire

1,985 1,097 1,334 1,222 1,482 1,583 1,709 -13.9%

Scotland 85,937 51,511 60,335 55,663 61,915 73,474 82,729 -3.7%

Source: Register of Scotland (RoS) Land Value Monthly Data Extracts, 2015

3.4.3 Private Rented Sector

Private Sector Rent statistics, Scotland (2010 to 2015), published 10 November 2015 presents statistics on private sector rent levels in Scotland over the years 2010 to 2015 (years to end-September) using data from the Rent Service Scotland market evidence database. It presents information on rent levels for different property sizes across each of the 18 broad rental market areas in Scotland. It contains information on average rents as well as rents at the higher and lower end of the market. The Broad Rental Market Area in which North Ayrshire sits is ‘the Ayrshires’ and is shown as area 14 in Figure 3.10 below:

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Figure 3.10 Broad Rental Market Areas

Average (mean) rents in the Ayrshires area between 2010 and 2015 have increased particularly for 4 bedroom properties, which have seen an increase of 15.0%. 1 bedroom shared and 3 bedroom properties have also seen increases to a lesser extent, by 0.9%, 2.2% respectively. Rents for 1 and 2 bedroom properties have decreased at 3.3% and 0.8% respectively. Average (mean) rents have shown annual variation, with every type of property except 4 bedroom properties showing some annual increases and decreases over the 2010 to 2015 period. 4 Bedroom properties have seen annual increases every year. Table 3.15 Average (Mean) Private Sector Rents by Property Size (£), Ayrshires 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1 Bedroom Shared 302 301 302 301 290 304

1 Bedroom 375 378 365 369 365 363 2 Bedrooms 464 469 459 470 461 461 3 Bedrooms 556 570 576 575 569 568 4 Bedrooms 758 789 816 834 840 872 Source: Private Sector Rent statistics, Scotland (2010 to 2015) 10 November 2015

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Figure 3.11 Average (Mean) Private Sector Rents by Property Size, 2010 – 2014, Ayrshires

For 1 bedroom properties, a greater decrease in the bottom end (lower quartile) has widened the gap in rents. For 2 bedroom properties, rent changes between 2010 and 2015 have been similar at the top end (upper quartile) and bottom end (lower quartile) of the market. For 3 and 4 bedroom properties the greater increase at the top end (upper quartile) compared to the bottom end (lower quartile) has widened the gap in rents. For 1 bedroom shared properties, there has been a slight increase in the top end (upper quartile), along with a small decrease at the bottom end (lower quartile), causing a small widening of the gap between the top and bottom ends. Table 3.16 Lower Quartile Private Sector Rents by Property Size (£), Ayrshires 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1 bed shared

280 274 273 260 260 275

1 bed 350 350 330 325 325 325 2 bed 425 425 425 425 425 420 3 bed 475 495 495 495 495 490 4 bed 650 650 650 677.5 675 695 Source: Private Sector Rent statistics, Scotland (2010 to 2015) 10 November 2015

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Figure 3.12 Lower Quartile Private Sector Rents by Property Size (£), Ayrshires

Table 3.17 Upper Quartile Private Sector Rents by Property Size (£), Ayrshires 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1 bed shared 324 324 325 325 315 333 1 bed 400 400 395 400 395 395 2 bed 495 500 495 500 497.5 500 3 bed 600 625 650 650 625 642.5 4 bed 850 875 900 900 1000 995 Source: Private Sector Rent statistics, Scotland (2010 to 2015) 10 November 2015 Figure 3.13 Upper Quartile Private Sector Rents by Property Size (£), Ayrshires

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3.4.4 Social Rented Sector

Social Rented sector rents collected through the Annual Return on the Charter (ARC) are presented here to provide average social rented sector rents across North Ayrshire. This data cannot be presented at SHMA level. We can see that social rented sector rents range from £54.32 to £66.40 for a 1 apartment (bedsit) property to between £66.46 and £89.67 for a 5 apartment (4 bedroom) property. Average rents across the landlords compared range from £57.62 for a 1 apartment to £82.78 for a 5 apartment. Table 3.18 Average Social Rented Sector Rents 2014/15 NAC ANCHO CHA IHA Average 1 apt £61.78 £54.32 £66.40 £64.01 £57.62 2 apt £62.77 £62.75 £74.72 £67.88 £71.37 3 apt £64.25 £72.42 £79.44 £75.77 £77.05 4 apt £65.06 £82.23 £85.00 £78.58 £81.75 5 apt £66.46 £86.56 £89.67 £80.07 £82.78 Source: SHR Source: SHR ARC Returns, 29/03/2016 When we consider the annual rent increases to be applied to social rented sector rents we see that according to the SHR ARC 2014/15 rents were planned to rise by an average of 2.6% during the 2015/16 financial year. The highest rent increases were introduced by Irvine Housing Association (3%) and both North Ayrshire Council and Cunninghame Housing Association had the lowest rent increases at 2.1%. Figure 3.14 Average Rent Increases to be Applied 2014/15 ARC

When we look at historic rent increases from the SHR data we find similar rent increases during 2013/14 with an average increase across the compared landlords of 3.2%. This ranged from 2.5% in ANCHO properties to 3.5% in North Ayrshire Council and Irvine HA properties.

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Figure 3.15 Average Rent Increases to be Applied 2013/14 ARC

Overall average social housing rents in North Ayrshire have increased by 6.2% between 2013/14 and 2015/165.

3.4.5 Income

Heriot Watt University have provided income information for each of the SHMAs within North Ayrshire. The database contained within the HNDA Tool provides Income Projections for each year of the tool, income projections for North Ayrshire 2015 are set out in Table 3.18 below. It shows the median income in North Ayrshire is £21,122. However, there is some variation in the median income by SHMA. For example, households on Arran have a median income of £24,263, while those living in the Three Towns SHMA have a median income of £19,150, a difference of £5,113 per year or 21%. There are also significant differences between the income of North Ayrshire residents falling within the lowest 10% bracket and the highest 10% bracket. Across the local authority this differential equates to over £41,000 (89.7%). Again, there are large differences within the SHMAs, most substantial being in the North Coast SHMA where the difference between the lowest and highest income bracket is close to £45,000 (92.4% differential). Indeed, the lowest and highest incomes are both within the North Coast SHMA which shows that while residents here are in the main, better off when compared with the average for North Ayrshire, there are a number of residents whose incomes are among the lowest in the area.

5 Source: SHR Charter Data – all social landlords complete dataset 2015-16; 2014-15 and 2013-14 https://www.scottishhousingregulator.gov.uk/find-and-compare-landlords/statistical-information

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Table 3.19 Income Information for North Ayrshire 2015 Projections Decile North

Ayrshire Arran Garnock

Valley Irvine/ Kilwinning

North Coast Three Towns

Lowest 10% below £4,706 £4,368 £5,527 £5,274 £3,640 £4,013 20% £8,798 £9,480 £9,456 £9,198 £8,703 £7,798 30% £12,890 £14,591 £13,386 £13,122 £13,766 £11,582 40% £16,982 £19,703 £17,316 £17,046 £18,830 £15,366 Median £21,122 £24,263 £21,350 £21,009 £24,011 £19,150 60% £25,939 £29,323 £26,246 £25,830 £29,763 £23,387 70% £36,950 £38,735 £37,094 £36,627 £39,716 £28,915 80% £41,399 £42,285 £41,448 £40,918 £44,065 £39,783 Highest 10% above £45,848 £45,836 £45,801 £45,209 £48,414 £44,888 Source: Heriot Watt University Estimates 2015, Extracted from HNDA Toolkit Earnings information is also produced by the ONS and set out in Table 3.20 below. This shows that residents in North Ayrshire have an average gross weekly pay of £509.90 compared to £518.20 across Scotland, a difference of £8.30. Table 3.20 Earnings by Residence (2014) North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain

(Pounds) (Pounds) (Pounds)

Gross Weekly Pay Full-Time Workers 509.9 518.2 520.8 Male Full-Time Workers 560.5 557.2 561.5

Female Full-Time Workers 432.8 460 463

Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings - Resident Analysis, 2014

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3.5 Key Issues Table

HOUSING MARKET DRIVERS - Key Issues Table LHS & Development Plan Key Issues Identified in the HNDA Demographic issues for the local housing market(s)

The LHS should respond to the need for: • the future provision of flexible specialist

accommodation; • properties to be adapted to meet the needs of the

aging population; • mechanisms to allow people who wish to remain in

their own home, and to live independently (including care, support and good property condition), and

Future provision of housing should be mindful of the need to take different approaches in different SHMAs.

Affordability issues for the local housing market(s)

The LHS should detail how costs associated with housing provision will be monitored, as any convergence between private and social rents, and the affordability of owner occupation may have a negative impact on demand across rented housing and therefore require a policy response.

Economic issues for the local housing market (s)

The LHS and LDP must identify how to provide affordable housing solutions towards areas with declining economy or high deprivation.

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4. Housing Stock Profile, Pressures And Management Issues

4.1 Introduction

This Chapter provides a description of the existing housing stock and any associated pressures and management issues as set out in ‘Core Output 4’:

4.2 Stock Profile

Overall the stock in North Ayrshire is relatively new and predominantly terraced or semi- detached. Across the SHMAs there are of course differences, with flatted developments featuring in the North Coast SHMA and detached dwellings much more common in Arran. Levels of private rented households are relatively less prevalent across the local authority when compared with the Scottish average.

4.2.1 Dwelling Size

Information on the size of dwellings has been collected for each of the SHMAs in North Ayrshire from the 2011 Census and presented in Table 4.1. From this we can see that in line with the average for Scotland, the majority of household spaces have four rooms, 29.3% compared with 29.2% nationally. Across North Ayrshire, there are relatively fewer smaller household spaces compared with the average for Scotland, which may reflect the type of housing within North Ayrshire which is predominantly younger (post 1945), semi- detached, detached or terraced. Table 4.1 Dwelling Size All occupied household

spaces One room

Two rooms

Three rooms

Four rooms

Five rooms

Six rooms +

Arran 2,126 0.5% 1.7% 8.9% 16.2% 24.8% 47.9% Garnock Valley 9,457 0.4% 2.4% 12.1% 32.2% 28.6% 24.4% Irvine/Kilwinning 24,878 0.5% 2.7% 10.7% 30.3% 30.8% 25.0% North Coast 10,823 0.4% 3.5% 13.1% 24.7% 21.0% 37.3% Three Towns 15,214 0.6% 3.0% 12.4% 30.9% 30.5% 22.5% North Ayrshire 62,498 0.5% 2.8% 11.7% 29.3% 28.5% 27.2% Scotland 2,372,777 0.6% 3.5% 13.4% 29.2% 24.3% 28.9% Source: 2011 Census (Table QS407SC - Number of rooms)

Core Output 4:Housing stock profile, pressures and management issues: Consider what existing housing stock is available to meet the housing needs of the local population. This should identify any under-supply or surplus of certain types of housing. This will demonstrate where the existing housing stock may be pressured and where that stock may need to be managed in order to meet the housing needs of the local population. The types and number of in-situ solution used should be evidenced. Stock should be considered by size, type, condition, occupancy (overcrowding and under-occupancy, concealed households and turnover (re-lets and voids). These should be considered by tenure and location as appropriate.

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4.2.2 Dwelling Type

Table 4.2 provides information on the type of dwellings within North Ayrshire at the SHMA level, again collected from the 2011 Census. It shows that the majority of housing stock across the local authority is Terraced; 28.5% compared with 18.6% nationally. It also shows that there are relatively fewer detached dwellings, particularly in the urban SHMAs such as Three Towns and Irvine/Kilwinning, although the Arran and North Coast SHMAs have higher levels of detached houses. North Ayrshire also has relatively fewer flats; 26.1% compared with 36.4% nationally, although the North Coast SHMA has a higher than average proportion of dwellings in this category with almost 38% of all household spaces falling within this grouping. Table 4.2 Dwelling Type All

occupied household spaces

Detached Semi Detached

Terraced Flats Other

Arran 2,126 58.0% 25.9% 10.3% 5.1% 0.6% Garnock Valley 9,457 20.5% 28.0% 30.4% 21.0% 0.1% Irvine/Kilwinning 24,878 17.2% 23.0% 38.3% 21.3% 0.2% North Coast 10,823 31.7% 18.1% 12.6% 37.5% 0.2% Three Towns 15,214 14.3% 28.5% 25.2% 32.0% 0.1% North Ayrshire 62,498 20.9% 24.3% 28.5% 26.1% 0.2% Scotland 2,372,777 21.9% 22.8% 18.6% 36.4% 0.3% Source: 2011 Census (Table QS405SC - Tenure – Households)

4.2.3 Housing Tenure

The majority of households within North Ayrshire are owner occupied, 62.2% compared with 62.0% across Scotland, see Table 4.3. A further 27.9% are socially rented, a higher proportion than the average for Scotland (24.3%) and another 9% are privately rented compared with 12.4% nationally. At the SHMA level, over 78% of households are owned in the more affluent area of the North Coast while a much lower proportion of 54.8% ownership can be seen in Three Towns. North Ayrshire has a higher than average level of socially rented properties, 27.9% compared with 24.3% nationally. Again rates of social renting differ across the SHMAs with the Three Towns SHMA having the highest level at 34.1% followed by Irvine/Kilwinning at 32.1% and Garnock Valley at 31.6%. Levels are much lower in other notably in the North Coast SHMA at 9.1%, much lower than the average for Scotland. Of all those households within the social housing sector, the majority are rented from the Council; 21.5%, a higher rate than the Scottish average of 13.2%. The figure is highest in the Garnock Valley SHMA where the rate is 28.2%. The proportion of properties in other social housing is lower than the Scottish average across all SHMAs, particularly within the North Coast SHMA at only 1.6%. Conversely, private renting levels are lower in North Ayrshire compared with the national average at 9% compared with 12.4% for Scotland as a whole. Levels of private renting are particularly low in the Garnock Valley SHMA at only 6.9%.

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Table 4.3 Housing Tenure All

households Owned Owned:

Owned outright

Owned: Owned with a mortgage or loan

Owned: Shared ownership (part owned and part rented)

Social rented

Social rented: Rented from council (Local authority)

Social rented: Other social rented

Private rented

Private rented: Private landlord or letting agency

Private rented: Employer of a household member

Private rented: Relative or friend of a household member

Private rented: Other

Living rent free

Arran 2,126 73.9% 52.4% 21.1% 0.4% 12.4% 1.6% 10.8% 10.7% 8.8% 0.5% 1.2% 0.2% 3.1% Irvine/ Kilwinning

24,878 59.3% 22.9% 36.2% 0.2% 32.1% 23.3% 8.8% 7.9% 7.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7%

Three Towns

15,214 54.8% 23.5% 31.1% 0.2% 34.1% 27.0% 7.1% 10.4% 9.5% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6%

Garnock Valley

9,457 60.8% 26.9% 33.8% 0.1% 31.6% 28.2% 3.4% 6.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.7%

North Coast

10,823 78.2% 45.1% 32.9% 0.3% 9.1% 7.4% 1.6% 11.3% 10.2% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 1.5%

North Ayrshire

62,498 62.2% 28.5% 33.5% 0.2% 27.9% 21.5% 6.4% 9.0% 8.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.9%

Scotland 2,372,777 62.0% 27.8% 33.7% 0.4% 24.3% 13.2% 11.1% 12.4% 11.1% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 1.3% Source: 2011 Census (Table QS405SC - Tenure – Households)

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4.2.4 Social Housing Stock

As at December 2015 there were 17,300 social housing units in North Ayrshire owned by the four largest landlords and those which participate in the North Ayrshire Common Housing Register (NACHR). North Ayrshire Council is the largest provider with 13,104 units or 76% of the CHR stock. This is followed by Cunninghame Housing Association (CHA) with 1,907 units, 11%, Irvine Housing Association (IHA) with 1,628 units, 9%, and ANCHO with 661 units, 4%. The greatest proportion of the stock is terraced/ mid terraced/ end terraced style properties 39%, followed by 17% which is four in a block style, 15% tenement flats, 14% detached/ semi-detached houses, 11% of the stock are bungalows, while 2% are maisonettes and 2% are multi-storey flats. Table 4.4 Social Housing Stock by Landlord and Type of Property ANCHO CHA IHA NAC Total Bungalow 5 119 343 1504 1971 Semi/ detached house 83 352 169 1832 2436 End/ Mid Terraced 256 591 946 4941 6734 Four in a block 14 72 2 2850 2938 Maisonette 59 0 22 251 332 Multi-storey flat 335 335 Tenement 244 773 146 1391 2554 Total Stock 661 1907 1628 13104 17300 Source: NACHR From tables 4.5 and 4.6 below we can see that the majority of the social rented stock is in the Irvine/ Kilwinning SHMA (47%), the Three Towns accounts for 30% of the stock followed by the Garnock Valley (17%), the North Coast (5%) and Arran 0.3%. The greatest proportion of the stock has two bedrooms (45%), while 28% has three bedrooms and 22% has one bedroom and 4% has four bedrooms. Only 1% of the stock is studios/ bedsits and 0.02% has five bedrooms and 0.02% has six bedrooms. Table 4.5 Size of Property by SHMA (Number) Studio 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed 5 bed 6 bed Total Arran 0 14 28 8 0 0 0 50 Garnock Valley 9 706 1361 863 41 0 0 2980 Irvine/ Kilwinning 96 1694 3824 2173 404 0 2 8193 North Coast 6 333 424 153 14 0 0 930 Three Towns 38 1097 2170 1669 171 1 1 5147 Total Stock 149 3844 7807 4866 630 1 3 17300 Source: NACHR

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Table 4.6 Size of Property by SHMA (%) Studio 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed 5 bed 6 bed Total Arran 0% 28% 56% 16% 0% 0% 0% 0.3% Garnock Valley 0% 24% 46% 29% 1% 0% 0% 17% Irvine/ Kilwinning 1% 21% 47% 27% 5% 0% 0% 47% North Coast 1% 36% 46% 16% 2% 0% 0% 5% Three Towns 1% 21% 42% 32% 3% 0% 0% 30% Total Stock 1% 22% 45% 28% 4% 0% 0% 100%

4.2.5 Dwelling Condition

Information on the condition of dwellings is available from the Scottish House Conditions Survey 2011- 2013 at the local authority level only. Table 4.7 has summarised the findings and shows that the vast majority of the housing in North Ayrshire, 76%, has been built post 1945, this is perhaps unsurprising given that one of the largest concentrations of population is in the new town of Irvine. The data also shows that the majority of dwellings are houses rather than flats (71%) and have 1 or 2 bedrooms (56%). Table 4.7 Dwelling Condition Number of Households in North Ayrshire by Dwelling Characteristics Total Age of Dwelling House or Flat Number of Bedrooms

Pre-1945 Post 1945 House Flat 1 or 2 3 000s 62 15 47 44 18 35 27 % 100% 24% 76% 71% 29% 56% 44% Source: Scottish Government, Scottish House Conditions Survey 2011- 2013 Table 4.8 provides a summary of findings on the dwellings in North Ayrshire which fall below the ‘Tolerable Standard’ levels, ‘Tolerable Standard’ being one of the criteria within the SHQS. It shows that across all tenures 10% of older properties (pre-1945) fall below the standard, a higher rate than the average for Scotland of 7%. Levels are otherwise very similar to the average for Scotland.

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Table 4.8 Below Tolerable Standard Levels BTS (Below Tolerable Standard) by Dwelling Characteristics BTS (Below Tolerable Standard) by Household Attributes Age of Dwelling House or Flat Number of

Bedrooms Tenure Household Type

Local Authority

% of LA

Pre-1945 Post 1945 House Flat 1 or 2 3+ Owner-occupied

Social Housing

Private Rented

Families Pensioners Adult Only

North Ayrshire

3% 10% 1% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 1% * 4% 4% 3%

Scotland 3% 7% 2% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 5% 2% 3% 4% Source: Scottish Government, Scottish House Conditions Survey 2011- 2013

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Table 4.9 provides some further information on adaptations for North Ayrshire. It shows that the number of dwellings where adaptions are required is relatively small at only 3.2% for the local authority compared with 5.5% nationally. Table 4.9 Dwellings Where Adaptations are Required by Householders Adaptations required Yes No North Ayrshire

2,000 3.2% 60,000 96.7%

Scotland

129,000 5.5% 2,233,000 94.5%

Source: Scottish Government, Scottish House Conditions Survey 2012

4.2.6 Second Homes

Occupancy rates in North Ayrshire are comparatively similar to the rest of Scotland as a whole at 94.5% compared with 95.9%, however at the SHMA level, we can see that Arran has a large proportion of its household spaces unoccupied and falling within the ‘Second residence/holiday home’ category. The North Coast SHMA similarly has a higher than average number of household spaces in this group at 8.4%. North Ayrshire has a lower rate of vacant homes than Scotland as a whole. The highest rate (3.9%) is found in the North Coast and the lowest in Irvine/ Kilwinning. Table 4.10 Occupancy Rates All

household spaces

All household spaces: Occupied

All household spaces: Unoccupied: Second residence/holiday home

All household spaces: Unoccupied: Vacant

Arran 2,924 72.7% 25.1% 2.2% Garnock Valley 9,732 97.2% 0.4% 2.4% Irvine/Kilwinning

25,406 97.9% 0.2% 1.9%

North Coast 12,344 87.7% 8.4% 3.9% Three Towns 15,726 96.7% 0.7% 2.6% North Ayrshire 66,132 94.5% 3.0% 2.5% Scotland 2,473,881 95.9% 1.5% 2.6% Source: 2011 Census (Table KS401SC - Dwellings, household spaces and accommodation)

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4.3 Stock Pressures

4.3.1 Social Housing Demand

As at 31st March 2015, there were 4,779 applicants on the North Ayrshire Housing Register. Of these applicants the majority (44%) are General Needs applicants, 36% are transfer applicants and 20% are homeless applicants (20%). Figure 4.1 Housing Register Applicant Type

Housing register applicants can select as many or as few letting areas on their housing application form. This means that there are many more area choices than there are actual applicants, with applicants on average selecting 7.5 letting areas. Our analysis of the housing register shows that by far the most area choices are for the Irvine/Kilwinning SHMA (69.3%) followed by the Three Towns (16.6%), the Garnock Valley (7.9%), the North Coast (5.5%) and Arran (0.7%).

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Figure 4.2 Demand by SHMA (North Ayrshire Housing Register)

Analysis carried out on the demand for housing by house size shows that across all areas, the highest demand is for two bedroom properties at 51.8% on average. One bedroom properties are sought by 30.9% of applicants, followed by 3 bedrooms (6.7%), bedsits (6.5%), 4 bedrooms (3.5%) and five or more bedrooms 0.6%. Figure 4.3 Demand by House Size (North Ayrshire Housing Register)

We can also analyse the level of demand for each property size by SHMA. This shows that Arran has a slightly lower demand for 2 bedroom properties (and correspondingly a slightly higher demand for 1 bedrooms). The lowest demand for 1 bedrooms is found in Irvine/ Kilwinning, which has the highest demand for 3 bedroom properties.

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Table 4.11 Housing Register Demand by House Size and SHMA Bedsit 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed 5+ bed Arran 5% 36% 49% 6% 4% 0% Garnock Valley 6% 33% 52% 6% 4% 0% Irvine Kilwinning 7% 30% 52% 7% 4% 1% North Coast 4% 34% 52% 6% 3% 1% Three Towns 5% 33% 52% 5% 3% 1% North Ayrshire 6.5% 30.9% 51.8% 6.7% 3.5% 0.6%

4.3.1.1 Concealed Households

The North Ayrshire Housing Register captures data on overcrowding and concealed households among those households which apply for social housing. As at 31st March 2015 there were 23 households on the waiting list who are identified as concealed or hidden households. This accounts for 0.48% of households on the Housing Register.

4.3.1.2 Allocations

There were a total of 1,824 social housing lets made during 2014/15. Of these 1,806 were lets made by the four largest social landlords, which, as we know from 4.2.4 above, have a total of 17,300 social housing properties in North Ayrshire. This indicates a turnover rate of 10%. The turnover rate varies by landlord with ANCHO having the highest turnover at 15% and NAC having the lowest at 10.44%. The average social housing turnover rate was 8.64% during 2015/16, 8.85% during 2014/15 and 9.67% during 2013/14 significantly lower than the North Ayrshire average. High turnover indicates a less stable population and tends to be found in lower demand areas. Figure 4.4 Social Housing Stock Turnover (NAC data)

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Almost half of social housing lets made during 2014/15 were in the Irvine/ Kilwinning SHMA (46%). The second most number of lets were made in the Three Towns SHMA (28%), followed by the Garnock Valley (19%), North Coast (6%) and Arran (2%). When we compare the proportion of lets made to the proportion of stock we see that it is broadly comparable with 46% of lets made in the area with 47% of stock (Irvine/ Kilwinning), 28% of lets in the Three Towns which has 30% of the stock, 19% in Garnock Valley which has 17% of stock, 6% of lets in North Coast which has 5% of the stock. Arran only has 0.3% of the social rented stock but has 2% of allocations. This indicates higher turnover rates in Arran. Figure 4.5 Social Landlord Relets by SHMA

Table 4.12 below shows that the majority of lets in each SHMA were made of 2 bedroom properties. This ranges from 51% of lets in Garnock Valley and Irvine to 43% in Arran. One bedroom properties account for the second largest proportion of lets ranging from 48% in North Coast to 25% in Irvine/ Kilwinning. Table 4.12 Proportion of Lets by Size and SHMA Row Labels Studio 1

Bed 2 Bed

3 Bed

4 Bed

Arran 0% 33% 49% 17% 0% Garnock Valley 1% 34% 51% 14% 1% Irvine/ Kilwinning 2% 25% 51% 17% 4% North Coast 1% 48% 45% 7% 0% 3 Towns 2% 34% 43% 19% 2% Grand Total 2% 31% 48% 17% 3% When we consider lets by property type, we find that the largest proportion of lets (28%) are made to terraced properties (end and mid terraced), this is followed by tenements (25%), four

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in a block (23%) and bungalows (12%), houses (semi-detached and detached) account for 9% of lets while maisonettes account for 3% and 1% multi storey flats. Figure 4.6 Social Housing Relets by Property Type

4.3.1.3 Voids and Difficult To Let Stock

No stock in North Ayrshire is categorised as long term void or difficult to let.

4.3.1.4 Demolitions

There have been a total of 251 demolitions in the social rented sector since 2010/11. There have been five distinct demolition periods within the five years with most demolitions occurring during 2010/11 (90), then during 2013/14 (81) and during 2012/13 (73). The vast majority of demolitions have been in the Irvine/ Kilwinning SHMA (245, 98%).These demolitions account for around 1.5% of the social rented stock. Demolitions and regeneration are policy decisions and these figures play no role in the calculation of future housing need and demand. Table 4.13 Social Rented Sector Demolitions 2010/11 to 2014/15 Year No. of Demolitions 2010/11 90 2011/12 1 2012/13 73 2013/14 81 2014/15 6 Total 251

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4.3.1.1 Right To Buy Sales

There has been an average of 42 Right To Buy sales each year for the last five years. Sales peaked at 50 during 2011/12, with a slump to 26 sales during 2012/13. When we consider the number of sales as percentage of the total social housing stock we can see that during 2014/15 0.3% of the stock was sold through Right To Buy. Table 4.14 below shows the number of sales. Table 4.14 Right To Buy Sales 2010/11 to 2014/15 Year No. of RTB Sales % of Stock Sold 2010/11 50 0.3% 2011/12 42 0.2% 2012/13 26 0.2% 2013/14 42 0.3% 2014/15 50 0.3% NACHR Data December 2015

4.3.2 Private Rented Sector Demand

There is limited evidence available in relation to need and demand in the private rented sector and this is a key issue for the LHS.

4.4 Stock Management

4.4.1 In-situ / Management Solutions

The North Ayrshire Housing Register Allocations policy aims to make the best use of the housing stock by awarding points to applicants who are overcrowded, under-occupying and sharing facilities with another household. Adapting existing stock is also a way to meet housing need in-situ. This is described in more detail in the Specialist Provision chapter of this document.

4.5 Future Housing Supply

The HNDA tool shows that between 2016 – 2020 the average annual new build requirement is 317 per annum. This falls to a negative requirement per annum between 2021 and 2025 (zero units). The estimated need per annum across the whole of North Ayrshire is 317, ranges from:

• Between 110 and 116 units in the social rented sector • Between 50 and 55 units in the mid market/ below market rented sector • Between 47 and 53 units in the private rented sector • Between 101 and 105 units for owner occupation

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Based on the 2015/16 Housing Land Supply Audit6 NAC estimate that there will be a total of 2,772 new build completions for owner occupation between 2016 and 2020. The number of anticipated completions rises steadily from 249 during 2016 to 800 during 2020, averaging 544 per annum. This is considerably more than the 101 to 105 units for owner occupation identified by the HNDA. A total of 456 new build social housing units are planned between 2014/15 and 2019/20. Over half of this new supply will be in Irvine/ Kilwinning (56%, 257 units). The Three Towns will receive 31% of the new supply (141 units), while 7% (32 units) will be in the North Coast and 5% (24 units) will be in the Garnock Valley. A further two units will be purchased through the Empty Homes Buy Back Scheme. Forty four percent of all new build (44% 201 units) will be general needs provision, 41% (186 units) will be Amenity dwellings, 9% (40 units) will be Sheltered housing and 6% (29 units) will be Wheelchair accessible accommodation. All the units contained within the SHIP 2015 – 2020 are social rented units with no plans for Mid Market Rent, Low Cost Home Ownership (LCHO) or Private Sector Rent. It is, therefore, a key issue for the LHS that the current planned future supply of social housing is far in excess of the HNDA estimated need. Similarly the planned development in other tenures are above the need indicated by the HNDA.

http://www.north-ayrshire.gov.uk/Documents/CorporateServices/LegalProtective/LocalDevelopmentPlan/LDPSep2012/HLA2016-by-settlement.pdf6 Page 4

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4.6 Key Issues Table

HOUSING STOCK PROFILE AND PRESSURES - Key Issues Table LHS & Development Plan Key Issues Identified in the HNDA Housing (condition) quality

The LHS should detail how poor condition will be addressed across the private housing sector.

Housing stock pressures

The LHS should seek to address information gaps in terms of housing stock pressure in the private rented sector.

Size, type, tenure and location and numbers of future social housing supply

The LHS and LDP should clarify why the forecast number of completions exceeds the shortfall identified in this assessment (ie. 101 to 105 units).

Sustaining communities e.g. using tenure diversification/ regeneration

The LHS & LDP detail policy interventions to ensure communities are sustainable. This could build on existing demolition and rebuild programmes, or identify new mechanisms.

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5. Estimating Future Housing Need and Demand 5.1 Introduction

This section presents an estimate of housing need and demand and describes the way in which housing need and demand has been estimated in North Ayrshire. The key findings are presented for the periods 2016 to 2020 and 2021 to 2025. These estimates of the additional housing requirement in future years will inform housing supply targets and affordable housing policies that will be set out in the Local Housing Strategy and Development Plan.

5.2 The HNDA Tool

In order to reach the estimated housing need and demand figures we have used the Centre for Housing market Analysis (CHMA) HNDA Tool Version 2.3.3 – 1 March 2016. The HNDA Tool estimates housing need by tenure:

• Social housing • Below market housing • Private sector housing • Home ownership

The estimate of future additional housing units required takes account of existing levels of need, migration patterns and the demographic and economic pressures outlined in previous chapters.

5.2.1 Inputs and Assumptions

The HNDA Tool is populated with a wide range of data which can be manipulated to produce various possible scenarios. This is done by changing the assumptions which drive the tool calculation, such as changes in income, house prices and affordability. Following detailed consideration of the issues the North Ayrshire Housing Market Partnership decided the inputs and assumptions to be used for the Baseline and the additional Scenarios to be modelled in using the HNDA Tool.

5.2.1.1 Demography

The first input to consider in using the HNDA Tool is the source to be used for future Household Projections. The HMP considered:

Core Output 2 – Estimate of Additional Housing Units: This should be broken down into the number of households who can afford a) owner occupation b) private rent c) below market rent or d) social rent. Estimates must be reported for each year of the projection, each five year periods within the projection and the cumulative total at the end of the projection. The Tool outputs these. The projection period and geography chosen should fit with those required for the LHS and Development Plan.

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• Using the National Registers of Scotland (NRS) Household Projections (2012 based) • Creating and Using North Ayrshire’s own Household Projections • Using the NRS Household Projections and adjusting these

The HMP decided to use the CHMA recommended NRS Household Projections because this dataset is considered by the CHMA to be sufficient to produce a broad range of estimates of future housing. The other options were ruled out on the basis that it is very resource intensive to create and use local household projections and any adjustment to the NRS Household Projections must be based on robust evidence which would require additional resources. The NRS Household Projections were considered to be the most robust and credible dataset available. Once the decision to use the NRS Household Projections had been taken the HMP then considered the most likely pattern of future net migration to North Ayrshire. The options presented in the tool allowed selection from the following options:

• Principle migration levels • High migration levels • Low Migration Levels

Based on the Migration data presented at 3.2.5 we can see that overall North Ayrshire has a relatively low and stable flow of in and out migration. For this reason the HMP decided to use the Principle Migration level within the HNDA Tool.

5.2.1.2 Existing Need Choices

The HMP also considered how to calculate Existing Need within the tool. Additional housing units would need to be found for these people. The options considered were to:

• Use the Homelessness and Temporary Accommodation Pressure (HaTAP) which is built into the Tool

• Use North Ayrshire’s Own Estimates of Existing Need • Use both the HaTAP and North Ayrshire Estimates of Existing Need

Use of the HaTAP indicator is considered to be an acceptable approach in the CHMA robust and credible appraisal. These estimates model the rate of social sector new build which would be needed in each local authority in order to: ensure that the proportion of lets to homeless people does not exceed a fixed proportion; and the number of people in temporary accommodation does not increase. The North Ayrshire HMP considered the figure of existing need produced by the HaTAP model as a starting point. Discussions of the HMP indicated that overall it was considered that the HaTAP did not accurately reflect the level of backlog need in North Ayrshire and therefore decided to consider North Ayrshire HMP calculations of backlog need within the model to run the scenarios.

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The North Ayrshire HMP estimates an overall backlog need of 918 in addition to the HaTAP assumption of 230 units. The overall backlog need is, therefore, comprised up of 918 housing register applicants who currently have no housing of their own plus the 230 homeless households and those living in temporary accommodation as identified by HaTAP, resulting in an overall backlog need of 1,148. The North Ayrshire HMP also identified that there is a different calculation in place if the HaTAP assumption is used when compared to using the NAC’s own figures of backlog need. The HaTAP model assumes that a larger proportion of those who are homeless or are in temporary accommodation will require social rented housing compared to the affordability assumption which the CHMA model uses when North Ayrshire HMP backlog need figures are used. In order to understand the most accurate number of units required in each tenure the North Ayrshire HMP ran the model using HaTAP figures and then ran the model again using the NAC backlog need figures. In order to understand the most accurate number of units required in each tenure the North Ayrshire HMP calculated the required tenure mix using the HaTAP calculation and have applied this figure to the final calculation of need which is based on the affordability model. The HMP also considered the number of years within which it would be reasonable to clear that backlog need. The default within the tool is set at five years, reflecting the position used in many previous HNDAs. North Ayrshire Council has previously used the five year timescale to clear backlog need and this approach has been continued during the 2016 HNDA calculation.

5.2.1.3 Income Growth and Distribution

In relation to income growth the HMP considered whether to use the Heriot Watt University (HWU) Small Area Income Estimates (2008) or whether to use the authority’s own income data. The HMP considered this issue in detail, specifically whether the use of 2008 generated data would be sufficiently accurate and whether to use CACI Paycheck data held by the Council. The HMP sought advice from the CHMA. The advice clarified that while the HWU data had been modelled using 2008 data the calculation took into account projected changes over the period to 2016 and that the data was valid for the purposes of the HNDA. The HMP also considered the resources required to use the CACI Paycheck data but concluded that the resources required were too great when an acceptable robust and credible dataset was already in place. The HNDA Tool is prepopulated with five scenarios to consider how income might grow over the projection period. It was agreed by the HMP that the default option should be considered and that a further scenario of ‘No real growth’ should also be considered based on local knowledge of the economy and future employment prospects in North Ayrshire. The HNDA principle projection was produced using the default option in the HNDA tool but, additionally, a further scenario of ‘no real growth’ was also used based on local knowledge of the economy and future employment prospects in North Ayrshire.

• The default option included in the tool assumes: Modest increases: incomes generally rise by 4.0% per annum to 2023, then drop back to 3.0% per annum to 2032

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• The Inflation target (no real growth) assumes: incomes rise in line with inflation 2.0% per annum to 2020, increasing to 2.5% per annum to 2032

The default option assumes modest increases in incomes; rising 4.0% per annum to 2023, then to 3.0% per annum to 2032. Since 2002 the hourly rate of pay for full-time workers has risen from £8.87 to £13.08 (2016). This is equivalent to an annual increase of 3.4% and therefore the rates of 4% and 3% very closely match the long-run historical trend. The Bank of England’s latest Inflation Report (Feb 2017) points to continued moderation in pay growth and higher import prices (inflation) following sterling’s depreciation. This means that while wages may rise, weaker household real income growth is expected over the coming few years. As a consequence, real consumer spending/income is expected to slow or stagnate. This lends support to the ‘no real growth’ scenario which assumes incomes rise in line with inflation at 2.0% per annum to 2020, increasing to 2.5% per annum to 2032. The BoE Monetary Policy Committee has recently increased its central expectation for growth in 2017 to 2.0% and expects national economic growth of 1.6% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019. However, CPI inflation rose to 1.6% in December and further substantial increases are very likely over the coming months. In the central projection, inflation is expected to increase to 2.8% in the first half of 2018, before falling back gradually to 2.4% by 2020 and to 2% in 2021. Therefore, this year’s forecast growth of 2.0% is likely to be neutralised by inflation of 1.6%-2.8% leaving consumers with no real growth in income, which is consistent with the HNDA ‘no real growth’ assumption. The HMP also considered which part of the income distribution was of interest. The tool is set up to analyse affordability (incomes divided by house prices and rent prices) at the 25th percentile of income, house prices and rental prices. In North Ayrshire the 25th percentile has been chosen by the HMP because, historically, this is seen to represent where First Time Buyers enter the housing market, where housing need and demand is most frequent7. The HMP also considered how income distribution might change over the projection period. The tool is pre populated with a range of options to allow for higher, lower and midway scenarios to be examined. The HMP agreed to test scenarios using the ‘Flat’ and ‘Creeping Inequality’ assumptions. These are:

• Flat (core/default): The incomes of the most affluent (the 90th percentile of the income distribution) and the least affluent (the 10th percentile of the income distribution) do not increase

• Creeping inequality: The incomes of the most affluent (the 90th percentile of the income distribution) increase more steadily compared to the incomes of least affluent (the 10th percentile of the income distribution)

5.2.1.4 Affordability and House Prices

The HMP also considered how house prices may grow over the projection period. The Tool is pre-programmed with eight future house price scenarios that are designed to offer the users a 7 HNDA Tool Instructions Page 15

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range of options to include higher scenarios, lower scenarios and scenarios midway between these. The HMP thought that the scenario which best reflects what might happen to house prices in the local area in future years is:

• SG (LBTT) (core/default): Scottish Government produced economic house price forecasts/changes signed-off by the Scottish Fiscal Commission for the Scottish budget 2014/15. House prices rise steadily year-on-year from 5.3% in 2015, 5.1% in 2016 and 2017 and levelling out to 4.5% in 2019

The HMP also set affordability criteria to decide a cut-off point for who can afford to buy in the market and who cannot (and will need to rent). The HMP have followed the default setting in the Tool, which assumes that one can afford to purchase a house priced at the lower quartile (25% percentile of the house price distribution) if ones lower quartile income is 4x greater than the house price. The 4x income is equivalent to 3.2x income with a 75% mortgage. This is based on information from the Council of Mortgage Lenders.

5.2.1.5 Affordability and Rental Choices

In terms of rental choices, the HMP agreed that the likely level of those who can afford to purchase a home in the market will actually go on to do so should be set at 50%. This assumes, of those who can afford mortgage repayments only 50% will also have the required deposit to go on and buy. Within those households who will rent the HMP considered the proportion which will rent in the private rented sector and those who will require social rented sector housing. In line with the HNDA Tool the HMP agreed that:

• If people are spending less than 25% of their income on rent it is assumed they can afford to rent in the private sector. This threshold has been used historically as the threshold for PRS affordability

• If people are spending between: 25% to 35% of their income on rent it is assumed they can afford below market rent

• If people need to spend more than 35% of their income (including Housing Benefit) on rent they can afford social rent

The final task for the HMP in setting the inputs and assumptions of the HNDA Tool was to decide how rental prices are likely to change over the course of the projection period. The HMP agreed that the Scottish Government default figures should be used. Specifically, these assume:

• SG (LBTT) (core/default): Scottish Government produced economic house price forecasts/changes signed-off by the Scottish Fiscal Commission for the Scottish budget 2014/15. House prices rise steadily year-on-year from 5.3% in 2015, 5.1% in 2016 and 2017 and levelling out to 4.5% in 2019

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5.2.2 Summary of Baseline and Scenarios Selected

Table 5.1 below summarises the Baseline data and the Scenarios modelled by the HMP. Table 5.1 Summary of Baseline and Scenarios

Scen

ario

Hous

ehol

d Proj

ectio

ns

Mig

ratio

n

Exis

ting

Nee

d

Year

s to

Cl

ear

Exis

ting

Nee

d In

com

e Da

ta

Sour

ce

Inco

me

Gro

wth

Inco

me

Dist

ribut

ion

Affo

rdab

ilit

y Th

resh

old Pu

rcha

se

Choo

se

to

Purc

hase

Af

ford

abi

lity

Thre

shol

d Re

nt

Rent

al

Gro

wth

1 Base Line

NRS Principle HaTAP & NAC Backlog Need

5 HWU Modest Increases

25th Percentile

Flat Core 25th Percentile, 4x lower quartile income

50% Default Core

2 NRS Principle HaTAP & NAC Backlog Need

5 HWU Inflation Target

25th Percentile

Flat Core 25th Percentile, 4x lower quartile income

50% Default Core

3 NRS Principle HaTAP & NAC Backlog Need

5 HWU Modest Increases

25th Percentile

Creeping inequality

Core 25th Percentile, 4x lower quartile income

50% Default Core

4 NRS Principle HaTAP & NAC Backlog Need

5 HWU Inflation Target

25th Percentile

Creeping Inequality

Core 25th Percentile, 4x lower quartile income

50% Default Core

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5.2.3 North Ayrshire Housing Supply Estimates Using the Baseline and Scenarios described above the HNDA Tool shows that the average annual new build requirements between 2016 and 2020 is 317 units, this falls to a negative requirement per annum between 2021 – 2025 (shown as ‘zero’ in Table 5.2). As the HNDA identifies the requirement for additional housing units, negative projections are inappropriate and can instead be shown as zero. Table 5.2 North Ayrshire Housing Supply Estimates 2016 – 2020 Cumulative

2016-2020 2021 - 2025

Scenario Social Rent

Below Market

PRS OO Total Total Total All Tenures

1 Baseline

107 53 52 105 317 1,585 0

2 114 55 47 102 317 1,585 0 3 110 50 53 104 317 1,585 0 4 116 52 49 101 317 1,585 0 CHMA HNDA Model Version 2.3.3 Top Level figures

Between 2016 – 2020 the estimated need per annum across the whole of North Ayrshire is 317, ranging from:

• Between 110 and 116 units in the social rented sector • Between 50 and 55 units in the mid market/ below market rented sector • Between 47 and 53 units in the private rented sector • Between 101 and 105 units for owner occupation

Between 2021 and 2025 the estimated need per annum across the whole of North Ayrshire is zero for all four tenures. The HNDA would normally report beyond 2025 but the figures beyond 2025 are also zero. The most important determinants of future housing within the CHMA HNDA Tool are household projections and backlog need. The North Ayrshire HMP consider the Homelessness and Temporary Accommodation Pressure (HaTAP) figures of backlog need to be too low as they do not take into account housing register demand from those applicants who currently have no home of their own. The North Ayrshire HMP, therefore consider the estimates of housing need produced in Scenarios 1 to 4 to be an accurate reflection of housing need in North Ayrshire. In terms of the tenure distribution of the figures shown in Scenarios 1 to 4 these have been calculated using the ‘affordability model’ within the HNDA tool. The affordability model filter in the HNDA Tool apportions some existing need to the social rent sector, but also to the other tenure choices; owner occupied, private rented sector and below market rent. If the

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affordability filter is not used, the model will assume that all existing need will be met in the social rented sector. It is noted that the HaTAP model similarly assumes that all existing need will be met in the social sector, regardless of the affordability model, although the North Ayrshire HMP declined to use HaTAP. 5.2.4 North Ayrshire Housing Supply Estimates by HMA We can also consider the distribution of housing need by HMA. Using the North Ayrshire HMP calculation of backlog need we find the following level of need between 2016 and 2020 (Between 2021 and 2025 the estimated need per annum within each Housing Market Area is zero for all four tenures): Arran HMA overall need 2016 – 2020 per annum 14, broken down by:

• 4 units in the social rented sector • 2-4 unit in the mid market/ below market rented sector • 2-5 units in the private rented sector • 2-3 units for owner occupation

Garnock Valley HMA overall need 2016 – 2020 per annum 43, broken down by:

• 14-15 units in the social rented sector • 7-8 units in the mid market/ below market rented sector • 4-5 units in the private rented sector • 16-17 units for owner occupation

Irvine/ Kilwinning HMA overall need 2016 – 2020 per annum 123, broken down by:

• 41-45 units in the social rented sector • 20-22 units in the mid market/ below market rented sector • 15-18 units in the private rented sector • 41-43 units for owner occupation

North Coast HMA overall need 2016 – 2020 per annum 56, broken down by:

• 17-19 units in the social rented sector • 7-8 units in the mid market/ below market rented sector • 13-14 units in the private rented sector • 16 units for owner occupation

Three Towns HMA overall need 2016 – 2020 per annum 82, broken down by:

• 31-33 units in the social rented sector • 14-15 units in the mid-market/ below market rented sector

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• 8-10 units in the private rented sector • 26-27 units for owner occupation

NB: The difference between the overall estimated need (317) and the cumulative total of the sub-areas (318) is due to rounding.

5.3 Key Issues Table

HOUSING REQUIREMENT: ESTIMATING HOUSING NEED AND DEMAND - Key Issues Table

LHS & Development Plan Key Issues Identified in the HNDA

Future need for additional housing broken down by household who are likely to be able to afford owner-occupation, private rent, below market rent and social rent.

The LHS and LDP should set achievable housing supply targets based on the estimated need, considering deliverability within the North Ayrshire context, and the local strategic landscape. Between 2016 – 2020 the estimated need per annum across the whole of North Ayrshire is 317, ranging from:

• Between 110 and 116 units in the social rented

sector • Between 50 and 55 units in the mid-market/ below

market rented sector • Between 47 and 53 units in the private rented

sector • Between 101 and 105 units for owner occupation

Between 2021 and 2025 the estimated need per annum across the whole of North Ayrshire is zero for all four tenures. The HNDA would normally report beyond 2025 but the figures beyond 2025 are also zero. The LHS and LDP should consider the need for housing supply targets that extend beyond the duration of the LHS (ie. beyond 2021) by reviewing historic new build completion rates, considering the wider policy context and through discussion with private developers.

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6. Specialist Provision This chapter sets out information on the need and demand for a range of specialist provision as defined in the HNDA Practitioners Guide summarised in Table 6.1 below. Table 6.1 Types of housing or housing-related provision Category of Housing Need Type of Housing Provision Property Needs

1. Accessible and adapted housing 2. Wheelchair housing 3. Non-permanent housing e.g. for students, migrant workers, asylum seekers, refugees

Care and Support Needs

4. Supported provision e.g. care homes, sheltered housing, hostels and refuges 5. Care/ support services for independent living

Locational or Land Needs8

6. Site provision e.g. sites/ pitches for Gypsy/ Travellers and sites for Travelling Showpeople, city centre locations for student accommodation

The chapter is aimed at meeting the requirements of Core Output 3, as specified in the HNDA Refresh Guidance:

The following groups have been considered in exploring housing needs:

• older people • people with a physical disability • people with a mental health condition • people with a learning disability • homeless people

8 At SDP and local authority level Gypsy/Traveller issues are a requirement of SPP given cross border issues here. Locational need may also be for non-permanent accommodation e.g. student accommodation in town centres or near the college/university. Other more innovative or aspirational `locational need' may be for certain types of Specialist Provision e.g. properties within close proximity to shops and services or in groups (villages) to allow support services to be managed and delivered more effectively. With the health and social care agenda, this may come more to the fore so that in future there will be more planning collaboration over the provision of nursing/care homes, residential homes etc.

Core Output 3 - Specialist Provision: Identifies the contribution that Specialist Provision plays in enabling people to live well, with dignity and independently for as long as possible. Identifies any gap(s)/ shortfall(s) in that provision and the future level and type of provision required. Considers evidence regarding property needs, care and support needs and locational/ land needs, it also gives due consideration to the provisions of the Equality Act (2010).

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• people fleeing/ at risk of domestic abuse • people requiring non-permanent accommodation e.g. homeless people, students,

migrant workers, asylum seekers, refugees, care leavers, offenders • minority ethnic people (including Gypsy/ Travellers) • Travelling Showpeople.

The information contained in this chapter will help to inform the provision and use of specialist housing and related services, and will be used as the basis for consideration of approaches to policy and service delivery that will be set out in the Local Housing Strategy, and which will read across to the Joint Commissioning Strategy. This chapter will also inform approaches to planning policy on specialist provision within the Development Plan.

6.1 Health and Wellbeing in North Ayrshire

The 2011 Census provides information on health and wellbeing for all local authorities in Scotland. Table 6.2 provides a summary of responses from North Ayrshire residents when they were asked to describe their health. From this we can see that the majority of residents described their health as either ‘Good’ or ‘Very Good’ at 79.3%; a similar result to the average for Scotland. However there is a slightly higher proportion of people who would describe their health as either ‘Bad’ or ‘Very Bad’; 6.8% compared with 5.6%, nonetheless this is still a very small proportion of the total. Table 6.2 General Health North Ayrshire Scotland All people 138,146 5,295,403 % Very good 48.9 52.5

% Good 30.4 29.7 % Fair 13.9 12.2

% Bad 5.2 4.3 % Very bad 1.6 1.3 Source: 2011 Census Table 6.3 provides further information on health in the local authority. It shows that slightly more people in North Ayrshire were suffering from a long term health condition than the average for Scotland; 32.7% compared with 29.9%. Of those with a long term health condition, there were relatively more with ‘deafness or partial hearing loss’ and ‘physical disability’ when compared with the Scottish average. Other categories of health conditions were in line with the average for Scotland.

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Table 6.3 Health Conditions in North Ayrshire North Ayrshire Scotland All people 138,146 5,295,403

% With no condition 67.3 70.1

% With one or more long-term health conditions

32.7 29.9

% With deafness or partial hearing loss 7.3 6.6

% With blindness or partial sight loss 2.7 2.4

% With learning disability (for example, Down's Syndrome)

0.5 0.5

% With learning difficulty (for example, dyslexia)

1.8 2

% With developmental disorder (for example, Autistic Spectrum Disorder, Asperger's Syndrome)

0.5 0.6

% With physical disability 7.7 6.7 % With mental health condition 4.8 4.4

% With other condition 21 18.7 Source: 2011 Census Table 6.4 provides information on the limitations of residents with a health condition and shows that North Ayrshire has a higher proportion of residents whose life is ‘limited a lot’; 11.3% compared with the average for Scotland of 9.6%. Table 6.4 North Ayrshire Residents with a Limiting Health Condition North Ayrshire Scotland All people 138146 5295403

% Limited a lot 11.3 9.6 % Limited a little 11.2 10.1 % Not limited 77.4 80.4 Source: 2011 Census The number of Disability Living Allowance (DLA) claimants has risen in the last few years and stands at 10,560 at the last quarter of 2012, see Figure 6.1

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Figure 6.1 Disability Living Allowance Claimants

Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics Of those claiming DLA, there has also been a steady increase in those with a low rate of mobility; 3,270 as of 2012Q4, see Figure 6.2. Figure 6.2 No. of DLA claimants, Low Rate of Mobility Component

Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics There has also been a rise in the number of DLA claimants requiring a high rate of care, see Figure 6.3.

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Figure 6.3 No. of DLA claimants, High Rate of Care Component

Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics

6.1.1 Older People

Although specialist housing can be required by people of all ages, needs become more acute in later life. This section describes how North Ayrshire’s older population will increase during the planning period, and how this might result in an increase in the need for both care at home (with a commensurate increase in the need for specialist and adapted housing) and residential care. A significant proportion of the elderly population is likely to live alone, bringing a particular set of challenges in terms of housing and care, and information is also given on single person households. Operational models developed over the last decade and more have aimed to move the balance of care away from care homes to care in the home and community, with care homes providing for the particularly frail and elderly. This has been successful with the number of people in care homes, and the number of beds provided, falling over the last decade and the numbers receiving care at home increasing. A significant challenge for specialist provision will be to provide purpose built and adapted housing of all tenures that enables people to live in their own homes as long as possible, and to provide the care that is required from a labour force that falling as a percentage of the total population. From Chapter Two we have established that there is a higher proportion of older people resident in North Ayrshire; 29.3% compared with 23.2% nationally, and also that some areas within North Ayrshire have a particularly high proportion of residents in the over 60 age group; Arran and the North Coast specifically.

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Table 6.5 Population of North Ayrshire SHMAs by Age Age Groups

All people 0 to 15 16 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 59

60 to 74

75+

Arran 4,660 13.6% 11.0% 13.0% 22.3% 25.9% 14.1% Garnock Valley 20,900 18.1% 16.0% 19.2% 22.3% 16.7% 7.7% Irvine/Kilwinning 56,634 18.7% 17.4% 19.5% 21.8% 16.0% 6.6% North Coast 22,769 14.9% 11.7% 15.6% 21.7% 23.2% 12.8% Three Towns 33,183 18.4% 17.5% 18.9% 21.6% 16.5% 7.2% North Ayrshire 138,146 17.7% 16.1% 18.5% 21.8% 17.7% 8.2% Scotland 5,295,403 17.3% 18.5% 20.0% 21.1% 15.5% 7.7% Source: 2011 Census (Table KS102SC - Age structure) We can also see from Table 6.6 that the proportion of older people is expected to increase. The latest population projections produced by the National Records of Scotland, forecast an increase of 92% in the over 75 age category over the period 2012 to 2037, a relatively higher increase than the projected increase of 85% for Scotland as a whole. Table 6.6 Population Projections for North Ayrshire 2012 to 2037 Age Groups

2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 % Change

0-15 24,170 23,341 23,025 22,158 21,287 20,172 -16.5 16-29 21,991 21,362 19,885 18,500 18,085 17,729 -19.4 30-49 35,339 31,073 28,309 28,018 26,809 25,778 -27.1 50-64 28,978 29,874 29,918 27,139 23,594 20,771 -28.3 65-74 15,442 16,968 17,262 17,913 19,106 18,675 20.9 75+ 11,640 13,332 15,876 18,363 20,282 22,340 91.9 ALL 137,560 135,950 134,275 132,091 129,163 125,465 -8.8 Source: NRS 2012 Based Population Projections

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6.1.2 Minority Ethnic People (including Gypsy/ Travellers)

Table 6.7 provides a summary of 2011 census information on ethnic groups in North Ayrshire. It shows that the vast majority of residents are classed as Scottish, Other British or Irish White (97.9%) with a further 0.7% classed as Asian Scottish or British and 0.2% Polish and 0.2% mixed race. 58 residents considered themselves to be Gypsy/Travellers. Minority ethnic groups are not a key issue for the LHS. Table 6.7 Ethnic Groups in North Ayrshire Ethnic Groups in North Ayrshire

Tota

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an B

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Asia

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Sco

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138,146 136,648 127,140 7,204 948 58 247 1,051 319 948 108 328 22 315 175 83 83

100% 98.9% 92.0% 5.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Source: 2011 Census

The remainder of this chapter will provide the completed templates required from the HNDA.

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6.1.3 Social Care Support Services

Table 6.8 below shows the number of people in North Ayrshire receiving social care services by client group.. A number of clients will direct their own support in terms of Self Directed Support (SDS) legislation. Table 6.8 Percentage of the Population Receiving Social Care Support Client Group Number of Clients receiving

Social Care services Frail older people 2,490 Physical disability 970 Mental health 230 Learning disability 320 Learning & physical disability

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Dementia 380 Other 1,020 Not known 1,020 Total 6,433 Source: Social Care Services Scotland 2016 http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/11/8311/downloads Arran and the North Coast (including the island of Millport) have the highest percentage of older people in relation to all adults (16-64) Conversely they have the lowest proportionate uptake of formal social care service as reflected in Care at Home/ Community alarm figures . It may be that informal networks of support are available and effective, but equally, there may be an unmet and hidden need.

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6.2 Accessible and Adapted

6.2.1 National Policies

• 2020 Vision: Strategic Narrative • Reshaping Care For Older People • Adapting for Change: Final Report of the Adaptations Working Group, November 2012 • Age, Home and Community: A Strategy for Housing for Scotland’s Older People: 2012 –

2021

6.2.2 Local Policies and Strategies

• Scheme of Assistance • Delivery of Equipment and Adaptations

6.2.3 Property Needs

Housing adaptations play a major role in enabling older people and disabled people to live independently in their own homes. Adaptations encompass a broad range of changes to the fabric of a building to enable people of all ages who have been affected by injury or suffer from ill health, or the effects of aging, to carry out ordinary activities of daily life. Adaptations range from simple alterations such as grab rails, lever taps, and non-slip flooring; to more complicated, structural alterations, such as an extension to a house, or a through floor lift. Adaptations can prevent hospital admissions; allow people to return home safely after a period in hospital; and ultimately minimise the duration of time spent in hospital. Providing adaptations at the right time can be life changing for an individual, and for their family members or carers. Numerous studies have shown that the vast majority of older people would prefer to remain in their own homes and communities rather than in institutional settings. A Scottish Government paper entitled ‘Reshaping Care for Older People – A Programme For Change 2011-2021’1 addresses this aspiration. The paper details the need for high quality care and support which will enable older people to live independently in their own homes. ‘Age, Home and Community: A Strategy for Housing for Scotland’s Older People: 2012 – 2021’ acknowledges that the majority of older people live in existing housing (as opposed to newly constructed housing), which is ill equipped to deal with their current or future accessibility needs. It highlights the importance of adaptations in preventing falls and other accidents within the home; reducing emergency hospital admissions; reducing admission to long-term care; and ensuring quality of life. North Ayrshire Council will assist tenants to remain in their own homes for as long as reasonably possible by adapting council houses (where appropriate). In order to achieve this, North Ayrshire Council has five key objectives:

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• Customer Focus will be at the centre of the new adaptations process; • Independent Living will be achievable for all service users; • Value for Money will ensure the delivery of more adaptations on a restricted budget; • Equitable Distribution of Resources will guarantee a fair process; and • Accountability will improve by incorporating an efficient performance management

system. In 2013, North Ayrshire Council Housing Services commissioned a review of the provision of housing adaptations by the Council and its partners, across all tenures. The purpose of the study was to investigate options to deliver a more person centred, equitable, effective, and consistent Adaptations Service. Housing Services recognise the work required in order to improve the wider Adaptations Service. However, the process described in these pages relates specifically to the delivery of equipment and adaptations within North Ayrshire Council’s housing stock. The provision of private sector housing equipment or adaptations is covered within The Council’s ‘Scheme of Assistance’. The key areas which have been identified for improvement within the existing North Ayrshire Council Adaptation Process:

• Lack of clearly defined roles and responsibilities; • Lengthy waiting lists; • Poor customer service; • Lack of procedures/timescales/roles; • No clearly defined definition of acceptable adaptations; and • No performance management information.

From April 2015, the Housing Adaptations function was delegated to the new Integration Joint Boards. It is hoped that by integrating Health and Social Care Services, resources will be used more effectively and efficiently. As a result, services should be better placed to meet the needs of the increasing number of people with longer term, and often complex needs, many of whom are older. However, budgetary agreement is still to be reached. The delegation of the Adaptations Process to Health and Social Care Services presents the opportunity to adopt one of the Adaptation Working Group’s key recommendations; and provide a person centred approach is at the heart of the revised Adaptations Process. The new streamlined service will put the individual at the centre of the Adaptations Process, and ensure that those in the greatest need will be provided with appropriate adaptations timeously and efficiently. The installation of appropriate adaptations will ensure independent living where possible; and enable our existing tenants to safely remain in their own homes and communities.

6.2.4 Suitable For

This type of accommodation will be suitable for people with limited mobility and or dexterity and those with a need for low level care.

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6.2.5 Evidence

The Scottish House Conditions Survey provides information on adaptations and shows that in North Ayrshire, only 4% of properties are in need of adaptations, this is in line with the Scottish average of 5%. Table 6.9 Dwellings Where Adaptations are Required by Householders Adaptations required Yes No 000s % 000s % North Ayrshire

2 3.2 60 96.7

Scotland

129 5.5 2,233 94.5

Source: Scottish House Condition Survey 2012 However where adaptations are needed, Table 6.10 has highlighted the age and type of property. We can see from this that adaptions are needed most in older properties (built pre-1945) and in flatted dwellings. Table 6.10 Dwellings Requiring Adaptations in North Ayrshire Dwellings Requiring Adaptations by Dwelling Characteristics Age of Dwelling House or Flat Number of

Bedrooms Local Authority

% of LA Pre-1945

Post 1945

House Flat 1 or 2 3+

North Ayrshire

1.4% 5.4% 0.6% 1.2% 3.2% 1.6% 1.9%

Scotland 2.7% 2.7% 3.2% 2.6% 3.7% 3.4% 2.6% Source: Scottish House Condition Survey 2013 The Scottish House Condition Survey also provides information on the type of housing which causes restrictions in Long Term Sick or Disabled (LTSD), see Table 6.11. Here we can see that 11.5% of properties are social housing, but a higher than average 8.5% of restrictions are in privately rented dwellings. Pensioners also face the biggest obstacles as 16.2% of those restricted falling into this category, a higher rate than the average for Scotland of 10.4%.

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Table 6.11 North Ayrshire Restrictions because of Property LTDS individual restricted because of property by Household Attributes Tenure Household Type Local Authority

Owner-occupied

Social Housing

Private Rented

Families Pensioners Adult Only

North Ayrshire

7.5% 11.5% 8.5% 5.2% 16.2% 4.3%

Scotland 4.6% 11.0% 2.7% 3.3% 10.4% 4.5% Source: Scottish House Condition Survey 2013 Thirty five percent of the social housing stock in North Ayrshire currently has aids or adaptations installed. This accounts for 5,998 units across all SHMAs. The highest proportion of adapted stock is found in the North Coast (44%) followed by the Three Towns (42%) and the Garnock Valley (34%). Forty nine percent of these properties (49%) have one adaptation, 26% have two adaptations, 12% have three adaptations and 7% have four adaptations, 6% have five or more adaptations. This data does not provide information on whether the current occupant requires the adaptations within their property or which type of adaptation is present. There are currently 4,779 Housing Register applicants in North Ayrshire. Of these 289 (6%) have indicated on their housing application form that they would require some form of aid/ adaptation to any home they were to be allocated. The data does not allow analysis of the type of aid/ adaptation required. From the housing allocation data we can see that there were a total of 4,773 lets made during 2014/15 and 1,366 (29%) of these lets were made to properties which have some form of aid/ adaptation. This suggests that there is significantly more adapted stock than people requiring adapted properties on the housing register and many allocations of adapted properties are made to applicants who do not require adaptations. Again data limitations mean that we cannot identify which adaptations are present or required. Consultation with RSL stakeholders indicates that there is an ongoing demand for aids and adaptations with recent increases in demand for wet floor and level access showers. Demand currently outstrips the available resources for aids and adaptations. In terms of complex needs and physical disability current provision is in the form of sheltered accommodation (out of area) and 43 residential care units. It is anticipated that there will be 18 individuals requiring alternative accommodation over the next few years. This should be in the form of barrier free single level accommodation and through the development of core sheltered housing.

6.2.6 External stakeholder consultation and engagement

North Ayrshire Council staff responsible for: the provision of Aids and Adaptations, Sheltered Housing and Homelessness Services were consulted alongside the wider HMP. Evidence provided included the results of a survey of older people living in North Ayrshire as part of the

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preparation of the Older Persons Housing Strategy. The Older Persons Housing Forum and the North Ayrshire Network were also consulted.

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6.3 Wheelchair Housing

6.3.1 National Policies

• Lifetime Homes Standards - which provides for ‘visitability’ by a wheelchair user and includes features that make the home adaptable for wheelchair use at a later date.

• Housing for Varying Needs Standards – a design guide: design for dwellings specifically for wheelchair users

• National Health and Wellbeing Outcome 2 - People, including those with disabilities or long term conditions, or who are frail, are able to live, as far as reasonably practicable, independently and at home or in a homely setting in their community

6.3.2 Local Policies/ Strategies

• North Ayrshire Strategic Housing Investment Plan (SHIP) 2015-2020 • Local Housing Strategy Topic Paper: Sustainability, 2011-2016

6.3.3 Property Needs

Overall there is a lack of published data nationally relating to the provision of wheelchair accessible accommodation and the extent of need for such properties. The Scottish House Conditions Survey indicates that there is a concentration of adapted property and individuals restricted by their dwelling / waiting for adaptations in the social rented sector. This suggests both investment and need are concentrated in this sector. There is a degree of overlap between wheelchair accessible housing and the type of provision set out in 6.2 Accessible and Adapted and also with some forms of supported accommodation as defined in 6.5. Wheelchair and accessible and purpose built accommodation includes features such as: low level appliances, wider door openings, barrier free bathroom/ shower access, outside space with wider entrances and suitable surfaces. The Scottish House Condition Survey describes properties which are adapted or accessible for wheelchair use as having:

• Wheelchair access to entrance door of dwelling or common block • Internal circulation is barrier free • Pathways from road and/or car spaces up to but not including the sntrance door are

step free • Doorbell/ entry system to dwelling or common block is accessible to wheelchair users • Separate WC compartment suitable for wheelchair user • Primary heating controls are accessible for wheelchair user

6.3.4 Suitable For

This type of accommodation will be suitable for wheelchair users. This includes all wheelchair users including: families with disabled children; young adults; disabled parents with dependent

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children; adults who acquire a disability and use a wheelchair as a result of an accident, incident or illness; and older wheelchair users. 6.3.5 Evidence Ensuring that double counting is avoided when assessing the provision of wheelchair accommodation in the RSL and local authority sector is problematic given the range of definitions used by landlords and the overlap between the categories outlined in the HNDA templates. There is also a distinction between existing housing which has been adapted for wheelchair use and purpose built accommodation. Data for the private rented and owner occupier sectors is even more difficult to collate. The lack of data is a key issue which should be addressed in the LHS. The ‘Strategic Housing Investment Plan 2015-2020’, or SHIP, sets out the affordable housing investment priorities for North Ayrshire. It includes a 5-year development programme based on these priorities and on “minimum likely” resource planning assumptions. Past and current trends Beyond the housing register, there is limited data on wheelchair housing needs. This is an issue which should be addressed in the LHS. However, the previous HNDA found that approximately 23% of households had a long term illness or disability in North Ayrshire, predominately focused on physical disability. There was a significant unmet requirement for specialist accommodation in the region of 1,700 - 2,400 dwellings depending on data source. This indicates an historic need for barrier free housing provision. The North Ayrshire Housing Register shows that (at August 2014), 1% of demand for one bedroom properties comes from wheelchair users, 2% of demand for two bedroom properties. The housing register figures were re-run summer 2017 and showed similar results. Within the SHIP, projects designed to meet specialist housing needs have a high priority. The overall requirement within the SHIP is for 3% of new build developments to be wheelchair accessible housing. During the period 2015 to 2020 this equated to 29 wheelchair units. The Council recognises that occasionally it may be necessary to build larger ‘wheelchair user’ housing to meet the needs of individual households The Council has embarked on a programme of reprovisioning all of its sheltered housing complexes. All units delivered through this programme will be accessible and have a minimum of one bedroom. The units will have ‘dementia friendly’ design. Establishing high levels of fuel efficiency is also a key part of the programme. As at 31st March 2015, there were 97 housing register applicants who require wheelchair housing. This equates to 2% of housing register applicants. Housing register applicants can select different sizes or property for which they wish to be considered, and may chose more than one property size. Seventy three percent of housing applicants who require wheelchair housing have selected a two bedroom property, 40% selected a one bedroom property, 20% selected three bedrooms and 6% four bedrooms. The majority (73%, 71 applicants) of housing applicants who require wheelchair housing are aged under 65.

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There are a total of 41 social rented wheelchair accessible properties, the majority of these (26, 63%) are amenity properties, 20% (8) are general needs and 17% (7) are sheltered housing. The supply of wheelchair accessible housing is half the current outstanding demand for accommodation of this type and this suggests a requirement for additional purpose built provision in the future. The supply outlined in the SHIP plus the existing supply compared to housing register demand suggest an additional shortfall of at least 27 units.

6.3.5 External Stakeholder Consultation and Engagement

North Ayrshire Council staff responsible for: the provision of Aids and Adaptations, Sheltered Housing and Homelessness Services were consulted alongside the wider HMP. Evidence provided included the results of a survey of older people living in North Ayrshire as part of the preparation of the Older Persons Housing Strategy. The Older Persons Housing Forum was also consulted and the North Ayrshire Network were also consulted. NAC has a collaborative approach to the preparation of the SHIP, and have involved: ANCHO, Cunninghame Housing Association, Irvine Housing Association, North Ayrshire Council (Housing, Finance, Planning), Scottish Government, and Trust Housing Association.

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6.4 Non-permanent housing

6.4.1 National Policies

• A Strategy for the Private Rented Sector in Scotland • Licensing of Houses in Multiple Occupation Statutory Guidance for Scottish Local

Authorities • Housing (Scotland) Act 2006 • The Homeless Persons (Provision of Non-permanent Accommodation) (Scotland)

Regulations 2010 The Homeless Persons (Unsuitable Accommodation) (Scotland) Order 2004

6.4.2 Local Policies/ Strategies

• Private Sector Advice Service Support for all housing matters • Violence Against Women Strategy • Homelessness A Local Housing Strategy 2017-2022 Evidence Paper

6.4.3 Property Needs

This section covers some of the accommodation needs of mainly young, single people who may require accommodation whilst in education, preparing to enter owner occupation / social renting, experiencing homelessness or other housing crisis. The private rented sector plays an important role in North Ayrshire’s housing system. It provides housing for a wide range of households including young working people, students, lower income households and economic migrants as well as people who need support and those who are at risk of homelessness. Transitional accommodation may include: single person or single parent family flats; Houses in Multiple Occupation; refuges and hostels. Provision includes self-contained, dispersed temporary accommodation units in both the private and social rented sectors, supported accommodation units and serviced accommodation.

6.4.4 Suitable For

Non-permanent housing will be suitable for: single people, students, single homeless, victims of domestic abuse and refugees.

6.4.5 Evidence

6.4.5.1 Student Accommodation

Ayrshire College is the only provider of further and higher education in North Ayrshire. The College has three sites in North Ayrshire: the Irvine Campus, the Kilwinning Campus and the Nethermains Satellite Campus (also Kilwinning). There are approximately 3,500 students of Ayrshire College living in North Ayrshire and some of these will study at the North Ayrshire Campuses while others will travel to the Ayr and Kilmarnock campuses. Approximately 2,600 full time students attend college in North Ayrshire. Of all Ayrshire College students around 7%

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do not have an Ayrshire address and may travel to college from homes in neighbouring authorities such as Renfrewshire, East Renfrewshire and Inverclyde. The College does not provide any student accommodation. This is based on low demand for such services from existing and potential students. The vast majority of students at Ayrshire College are already resident in the area when they apply for and take up a place to study. Where students do move into North Ayrshire on commencing their studies the College provides support to ensure their accommodation is sustainable. There is no identified need for student accommodation in the future. Students face similar pressures to other young people in the area in terms of accessing accommodation.

6.4.5.2 Emergency and Supported Accommodation

Homeless applicants who have nowhere to live within North Ayrshire will be offered emergency and supported accommodation. There are 69 bed spaces in three temporary hostels in North Ayrshire: Ardrossan Short Stay, Victoria House, Irvine and the Green Street Hostel, Saltcoats. There are also 160 temporary furnished tenancies throughout North Ayrshire. Homeless applicants may be offered accommodation at one of the hostels before being moved on to temporary furnished accommodation. However, households with no support needs or containing children are likely to be placed straight into dispersed accommodation. The time spent in temporary accommodation will depend upon each individual set of circumstances, including the area and house type choices of the individual, but efforts are made to keep the time that anyone spends in temporary accommodation to a minimum. Occupancy rates within the emergency and temporary accommodation units are high, averaging 97% per annum. There are seasonal variations throughout the year but overall the levels of accommodation are considered to be in line with demand. The Council carries out an annual review of temporary accommodation provision and usage. In times of exceptionally high demand, mainstream stock is released to provide additional temporary accommodation. This happens infrequently, and is not considered an issue. In future, the Council is moving towards a ‘Housing First’ model. This model offers a homeless people resettlement into permanent accommodation with tailored support. Therefore, in future, existing temporary and emergency accommodations is thought to be sufficient, as many more properties will be taken from the mainstream stock. Current temporary and emergency accommodation meets demand, and no further provision is required. Scottish Government data ‘Homelessness in Scotland 2015-16’ shows that the number of people presenting as homeless and being accepted as homeless has increased over the past three years. The requirement to maintain an adequate supply of suitable properties is likely to continue at least at current levels, but the increases of recent years may continue requiring additional provision. This will be a key issue for the LHS.

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Table 6.12 Levels of Homelessness Year 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 % change

2012/13 to 20115/16

Presentations 661 735 783 744 12.5% Assessed as homeless/ potentially homeless

579 633 680 698 20.5%

Source: Homelessness in Scotland 2013-2016 Scottish Government extracted from NAC Homelessness A Local Housing Strategy 2017-2022 Evidence Paper

6.4.5.3 Women Fleeing Domestic Abuse

There were a total of 110 households presenting as homeless to North Ayrshire Council during 2014/15 as the result of Domestic Violence. The levels of those presenting as homeless as a result of domestic violence remained consistent during 2013-2016. In addition to the temporary provision detailed above, there is a range of refuge spaces (17) and dispersed flats (7) available across North Ayrshire. There is no evidence to suggest that the requirement to maintain an adequate supply of suitable properties is likely to increase in future. North Ayrshire Women’s Aid delivers services to women, children and young people experiencing domestic abuse in North Ayrshire. The core services provided include: counselling support, refuge, outreach.

6.4.5.4 Asylum Seekers

North Ayrshire Council recognises the humanitarian crisis in Syria, Libya and Eritrea and at a Full Council Meeting on 9th September 2015 the Council agreed to support the work of the Scottish Government and Opposition parties to urge the UK Government to accept more refugees into the United Kingdom. The Council has committed to working with COSLA and the Scottish Government to support refugees in coming to North Ayrshire. Depending on family sizes, over a period of time the Council will offer accommodation and other support to 50 to 100 refugees. A dedicated Refugee Support Team is in place to ensure the housing and support needs of asylum seekers are met, and it is anticipated that all housing needs can be met through the existing housing stock. Nonetheless, it is not possible to fully forecast needs of as yet, unknown individuals.

6.4.5.5 Homeless Applications from Single People

There were 779 homeless approaches during the calendar year 2015. The vast majority of these (627, 80%) were single person households. A large proportion was also under the age of

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35 (334, 43%). Within this group 217 (28% of total approaches) are aged 25 to 35 and 117 (15% of total approaches) are aged 16 to 24. The under-35 age group also frequently displays multiple and complex needs which causes issues in terms of the provision of temporary accommodation and resettlement in permanent accommodation. On the introduction of Welfare Reform further impacts are anticipated in relation to the under-35 age group and their ability to afford both temporary and permanent accommodation. There are few shared properties and HMO’s available in which under 35’s could access a shared room and this is a key issue for the LHS. Responding to this demand is a key issue for the LHS.

6.4.5.6 Rent Deposit Guarantee Scheme

A big problem for homeless people who want to rent a home from a private landlord is being unable to afford a cash deposit. The Rent Deposit Guarantee Scheme helps homeless people rent from a private landlord by giving the landlord a written 'guarantee' instead of a cash deposit. This scheme helps people who are currently, or at the risk of becoming, homeless. Applicants must:

• be receiving benefits or have a low wage or income (due to Housing Benefit restrictions, it is difficult to help single people under the age of 35 with this scheme)

• not be able to afford a deposit for a private let • be willing to pay the deposit back to the landlord, and • have a local connection to North Ayrshire

The Rent Deposit Guarantee Scheme is well used with approximately 16 new cases each month. During 2013/14 there were a total of 270 sign-ups for the Rent Deposit Guarantee Scheme. During 2014/15 there were 238-sign ups. The greatest demand for the scheme is observed in Irvine and Kilwinning where rents are higher compared to other areas and service provision should continue at existing levels. Tenancy sustainment levels after one year are high for those accessing the Rent Deposit Guarantee Scheme with 89% of tenancies sustained after one year during 2013/14 and 90% during 2014/15.

6.4.6 Land Needs

No additional land needs have been identified.

6.4.7 External Stakeholder Consultation and Engagement

North Ayrshire Council staff responsible for: the provision of Temporary Homelessness Accommodation and Homelessness Services, those in Licensing responsible for HMO’s and coordination of Domestic Abuse services were consulted alongside the wider HMP. Ayrshire

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College was also consulted and provided feedback gathered through student consultation exercises.

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6.5 Supported Provision

6.5.1 National Policies and Documents

• Joint Improvement Team9 • Joint Strategic Commissioning • Reshaping Care for Older People • Scotland’s National Dementia Strategy • Keys To Life – improving quality of life for people with learning disabilities, 2013 • Caring together: the carers strategy for Scotland 2010-2015 • Mental Health Strategy for Scotland 2012-2015 • Regulation of Care (Scotland) Act 2001 • Community Care and Health (Scotland) Act 2002

6.5.2 Local Policies/ Strategies

• Older Persons Model of Care • Older Persons Housing Strategy 2013 - 2016

6.5.3 Property Needs

There tends to be a lack of clarity about the definition of both a housing support need and of a housing support service. Debate about definitions has the potential to become unhelpful, losing focus on the key requirement: meeting the needs of individuals and households who are vulnerable and in need of assistance. In order to move forward, the following have been taken as the key features of housing support, and the focus for this component of the LHS:

• Services with a focus on prevention – in particular preventing, or reducing the likelihood of, housing needs arising such as the loss of accommodation, an avoidable need to move, or of current housing becoming unsuitable or presenting a risk

• A low level service response to those who are not eligible for a care service from the local authority, but have difficulties in sustaining independent living

• Support to people, based on their needs, and irrespective of the tenure in which they live.

The focus on prevention is a key feature of housing support. Housing support services provide the Council and it partners with a core of services with this focus on prevention in relation to housing ‘crises’. There is however a need for services with a health and social care focus, which are preventative and delay or avoid the need for more expensive service interventions, in particular emergency hospital admission. The Care Commission’s definitions of ‘housing support’ on the one hand and of ‘support’ on the other hand are very general and have the potential to overlap with one another.

9 Joint Improvement Team is no longer operational work continues as part of Healthcare Improvement Scotland

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‘Housing support services provide support, assistance, advice or counselling to enable people to live independently.’ ‘(Support) services provide day care and can be offered within a care home, day centre or elsewhere in the community. Support services can provide help to people who need support with very complicated needs or people who need time-limited support at various times.’

6.5.4 Evidence

6.5.4.1 Residential Care Homes

There are a total of 1,039 Residential Care Home bed spaces in North Ayrshire. The majority of these are dual Care Homes (631, 61%), the remainder are Nursing Homes (248, 24%), Private Residential Homes (139, 13%) and local authority Care Homes (21, 2%). Table 6.13 provides overall provision by SHMA. There are currently 17 confirmed vacancies across North Ayrshire. Table 6.13 Residential Care Homes by SHMA 2015 SHMA Bedspaces Current Vacancies Arran 49 1 Garnock Valley 60 2 Irvine/Kilwinning 340 8 North Coast 151 2 Three Towns 439 4 North Ayrshire 1,039 17 Residential care homes in North Ayrshire are near full capacity. However, it is not North Ayrshire Council’s intention to focus on developing new residential care homes. Instead, the North Ayrshire Health and Social Care Partnership will move toward an approach that sees people supported to remain at home - a shift towards independent living that mirrors the approach led by the Scottish Government. It is anticipated that by focussing on care and support, and by keeping people at home, demand for residential care will fall.

6.5.4.2 Sheltered and Amenity Housing

A snapshot of the North Ayrshire Housing Register (NAHR) taken at the beginning of 2016 counted a total of 585 housing register applicants who require sheltered housing. This accounts for 12% of housing register applicants. Twenty one percent (21%) or 1,015 housing register applicants require amenity housing. There is considerable overlap between those applicants seeking sheltered and amenity housing with 447 (9.4%) seeking both sheltered and amenity housing. A total of 138 (2.9%) only want sheltered housing, while 11.9% seek only amenity housing. Another count of the NAHR was taken during summer 2017, and the proportion, and numbers of applicants who requires sheltered or amenity housing was very similar.

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The North Ayrshire SHIP 2017-2020 notes that at the time of publication (November 2016) there was approximately 1,200 individual applicants on the North Ayrshire Housing Register who have requested housing for older people (i.e. amenity housing or sheltered housing); 24% of the common housing register. With the forecast increase in older households (Table 3.5), the LHS should provide a policy response to meet the housing needs of the ageing population.

6.5.5 Care and Support Needs

Information on supporting housing for older people is collated for local authorities and housing associations and is shown in Table 6.14. It shows that there were, as of March 2015, 520 units of ‘sheltered housing’ for older people, 858 units of medium dependency housing and 3,341 dwellings with community alarms. These figures exclude any private providers of older people’s housing.

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Table 6.14 Supported Housing Provision for North Ayrshire: Older People Housing for older people Very

sheltered Sheltered of which

wheelchair adapted10

Medium dependency

Dwellings with community alarm

North Ayrshire

0 520 0 858 3,341

Scotland 599 14,722 2,063 5,434 27,741 Source: http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Housing-Regeneration/HSfS/SpecialNeeds as of March 2015. Supported housing statistics are collected for LA and housing association housing.

6.5.6 People with a Physical Disability

From the 2011 Census we know that there are 10,636 North Ayrshire residents who have a physical disability, this equates to 7.7% of the population which is slightly higher than the average for Scotland of 6.7%, see table 6.3 above, 55% of those with a physical disability in North Ayrshire are female. Supported housing information is provided in Table 6.15. It shows that in total, as of March 2015, 205 units were available to those with physical disabilities with the majority; 80% designed for ambulant disabled use. Table 6.15 Supported Housing Provision for North Ayrshire: Physical Disabilities Housing for people with physical disabilities adapted for wheelchair use ambulant disabled11 other adapted North Ayrshire

40 165 0

Scotland 2,062 14,994 2,672 Source: http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Housing-Regeneration/HSfS/SpecialNeeds as of March 2015. Supported housing statistics are collected for LA and housing association housing. The Council does not hold information on who requires alternative housing because of a disability beyond those who either have expressed a need on the housing register, or have applied for an adaptation. Issues relating to wheelchair and accessible housing, and adaptations have discussed earlier in this report.

10 It is for older people confined to wheelchairs, rather than for other such disabled people. (Numbers in this category are also included in the total for sheltered or very sheltered housing. Not available for Housing Associations.) 11 This consists of dwellings for people with disabilities who are not confined to wheelchairs. It is built or adapted to general needs housing standards but has a level or ramped approach, WC and bathroom at entrance level and other special features.

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6.5.7 People with a Mental Health Condition12

6,697(4.8%) people in North Ayrshire who have a mental health condition, a similar level to the national average of 4.4%, see Table 6.3 above. Current residential provision for people with a mental health condition tends to be outwith the area although there is an 8 bed residential unit within North Ayrshire and a number of people receiving support through core tenancies or in their own homes. It is anticipated that there will be 35 individuals requiring alternative accommodation over the next few years. Twelve of these will be as a result of moves from slow stream hospital rehabilitation and community alternatives will be required. It is considered that many of the others would benefit from support in accommodation of the core and cluster model – with the need identified as 22 in core accommodation, and 10 in cluster. The LHS should provide a response to how this future need will be met.

6.5.8 People with a Learning Disability

A small minority of North Ayrshire residents have a learning disability, 759 in total or 0.5% of the local authority population. This is the same rate as the Scottish population as a whole, see Table 6.3. There are current 44 units of residential provision in addition to a number of core tenancies, shared supported housing and support in individual tenancies. It is anticipated that there will be 32 individuals requiring alternative accommodation over the next few years. The assessed need indicates a requirement for 7 to be in ‘core model’ tenancies, with a further 6 able to be supported along the lines of cluster (outreach support from the core); 7 would benefit from shared tenancies, 4 from individual tenancies and 8 from a residential facility. The residential facility would need to be a bespoke housing environment to accommodate the most challenging clients, those with complex learning and physical disabilities, and behaviours that place self or others at risk. The LHS should provide a response to how this future need will be met.

6.5.9 Homeless People

During 2014/15 there were a total of 1,005 homeless households which the Council was required to make an offer of temporary or emergency accommodation. More detail is provided at 6.4.5.2 above.

6.5.10 People at Risk of Domestic Abuse

There were a total of 110 households presenting as homeless to North Ayrshire Council during 2014/15 as the result of Domestic Violence. In addition to the temporary provision detailed

12 Source: North Ayrshire Housing and Social Care Partnership, 2016

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above, there is a range of refuge spaces (17) and dispersed flats (7) available across North Ayrshire. North Ayrshire Women’s Aid delivers services to women, children and young people experiencing domestic abuse in North Ayrshire. The core services provided include: counselling support, refuge, outreach. Demand for the service has remained consistent for approximately 15 years and no additional accommodation is sought. Also refer to the section in 6.4 (non-permanent housing).

6.5.11 Suitable For

This type of accommodation will be suitable for older people, homeless, those fleeing domestic abuse, people with a physical disability, those with learning disabilities, people with mental health issues and people with other long term limiting health conditions which might be exacerbated by their living conditions.

6.5.12 External Stakeholder Consultation and Engagement

North Ayrshire Council staff responsible for the provision of Long Term Housing Support, Sheltered Housing, and Homelessness Services were consulted alongside the wider HMP. Evidence provided included the results of a survey of older people living in North Ayrshire as part of the preparation of the Older Persons Housing Strategy. The Older Persons Housing Forum was also consulted.

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6.6 Care/Support Services for Independent at Home Living

6.6.1 National Policies

• National Telehealth and Telecare Delivery Plan for Scotland to 2016 • 2020 Vision: Strategic Narrative

6.6.2 Local Policies

• Older Persons Model of Care • Older Persons Housing Strategy 2013 - 2016 • North Ayrshire Scheme of Assistance

6.6.3 Care and Support Needs

From Chapter Two we have established that there is a higher proportion of older people residing in North Ayrshire; 29.3% compared with 23.2% nationally, and also that some areas within North Ayrshire have a particularly high proportion of residents in the over 60 age group; Arran and the North Coast specifically. We can also see from that the proportion of older people is expected to increase. The latest population projections produced by the National Records of Scotland, forecast an increase of 92% in the over 75 age category over the period 2012 to 2037, a relatively higher increase than the projected increase of 85% for Scotland as a whole. With an increasingly elderly population, rising levels of frailty and prevalence of dementia it is evident that the needs of our older people will become ever more complex. At the same time, an increasing number of younger adults with complex care needs are being supported to live as independently as possible at home or in a homely setting. In this context, it is evident that the current models of care will not meet the needs of local people over the next decade. The time is therefore right for a paradigm shift to a values-based model that recognises older people and those with complex care needs as assets within local communities and places individuals in control over how services are designed and delivered to best meet their needs and desired outcomes. It is, therefore, anticipated that an increase in care and support services which enable people to live in their own home or in community settings for longer will be required.

6.6.4 Suitable For

This type of accommodation will be suitable for People Living at Home but Needing Care/ Support to Continue to Live Independently.

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6.6.5 Evidence

6.6.5.1 Care and Repair Extra Services and Handyman Services Mainland and Cumbrae

Care and repair services on the North Ayrshire mainland and Cumbrae help elderly home owners and private sector tenants over 65 years of age who require adaptations or small repairs to their home. A Small Repairs Service is also available to Care and Repair Extra clients who are elderly or disabled. This service will assist with repairs required to improve the safety and security of the home. Qualifying repairs under the Small Repairs Service are paid for by the service (NAC funded) to a value of £80. Any costs over £80 are paid by the occupier. The North Ayrshire mainland and Isle of Cumbrae service has been expanded to include a handyperson service. It is available to all owner occupiers, private sector tenants, council tenants and housing association tenants living on the North Ayrshire Mainland and Isle of Cumbrae. Both the Care and Repair and Handyman Services are delivered by Cunninghame Housing Association on behalf of NAC. A recent review of service delivery led to the creation of a Public Social Partnership from 1st April 2015. During 2015/16 there were a total of 1,221 applications to the Care and Repair Service. The highest proportion of applications come from those aged between 75 - 80 (22.1%) followed by those aged 80 – 85 (18.6%), 70 – 75 (17.2%) and 85+ (16.4%). Table 6.16 Care and Repair Applications 2015/16 Age of Applicant No. of Cases % of Total Applications Under 65 118 9.7% 65 – 70 196 16% 70 – 75 210 17.2% 75 – 80 270 22.1% 80 – 85 227 18.6% 85+ 200 16.4% Total 1,221 100% The funding available for the Small repairs Service during 2015/16 was £20,000 and this amount was used within the first three months, leaving an unmet demand throughout the rest of the year. There is scope to increase these funds in order to deliver the service to a greater number of people and meet overall demand. Care and Repair services are also provided on the Isle of Arran by Arran Care and Repair and these figures are included in Table 6.15 above.

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6.6.5.2 Care at Home

Care at Home is a service designed to preserve an individual’s independence and allow them to remain in their home for as long as possible. The service is available 24 hours a day, 365 days a year and can help with daily tasks such as:

• Getting dressed • Maintaining personal hygiene • Taking medication • Getting out of and into bed

Services may be provided by NAC care at home assistants or through an approved partner in the independent sector. As at 31st December 2015 there were a total of 1,805 Care at Home service users and 3,563 people using Telecare Services. Table 6.16 shows the number of Care at Home and Telecare service users by SHMA. Consultation with the North Ayrshire Health and Social Care Partnership confirmed that Care at Home Services have seen a 2% year-on-year increase in the number of people receiving a service and a 5% increase in the complexity of packages over the last five years. The HSCP has measures in place to address the ongoing demand.

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Table 6.17 NAC Care at Home and Telecare Service Users 31/12/2015 SHMA Care at Home Service Users Telecare Service Users Arran 68 166 Garnock Valley 291 499 Irvine/Kilwinning 687 1,417 North Coast 353 689 Three Towns 406 792 North Ayrshire 1,805 3,563

6.6.5.3 Future Need and Level of Provision

The Older People Housing Survey provided an understanding of what older people want locally. When asked about their future housing aspirations the majority of older people would prefer to stay in their existing home regardless of how their needs changed. Figure 6.15Future Housing Aspirations of Older People

Source: NAC Older Persons Housing Survey13 The main reasons people were currently considering moving home were: accessibility, maintenance and affordability. However, the majority have no intentions to move home (77%) and wish to stay in their own home/ or receive care in their own home. Those who acknowledged that their home was no longer suitable for their needs, still chose not to move. This suggests people may be unaware of the alternative housing options which are available to them. The LHS should provide details of how older people will be assisted to remain at home, and facilitate independent living.

13 Data does not total 100% due to rounding

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6.6.6 External Stakeholder Consultation and Engagement

North Ayrshire Council staff responsible for: the provision of Care at Home and Housing Support were consulted alongside the wider HMP. Evidence provided included the results of a survey of older people living in North Ayrshire as part of the preparation of the Older Persons Housing Strategy. The Older Persons Housing Forum was also consulted.

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6.7 Gypsy Traveller Site provision

6.7.1 National Policies and Documents

• Equalities Act 2010 • Housing (Scotland) Act 2010 - The Scottish Social Housing Charter • Scottish Government National Strategy Group • Equal Opportunities Committee inquiries into the lives of Gypsy/Travellers • LHS Guidance 2014 • The Scottish Parliament Equal Opportunities Commission, March 2013 ‘Where Gypsy

Travellers Live’ • Scottish Government, May 2015 ‘Improving Gypsy Traveller Sites’ • Scottish Government, 2009 Twice Yearly Count of Gypsies/Travellers • Scottish Government: Gypsies/Travellers in Scotland: Summary of the Evidence Base,

Summer 2013

6.7.2 Local Policies/ Strategies

In line with Scottish Government guidelines, North Ayrshire Council considers Gypsy Travellers to be a minority ethnic community. The council recognises Gypsy Travellers rights to nomadic life and respects the fact that Gypsy Travellers may wish to maintain a travelling way of life as part of their cultural identity. It is acknowledged that there should be no discrimination against Gypsy Travellers because of their way of life and culture. Local Policies which have been considered in this area include:

• North Ayrshire Equality Plan • North Ayrshire Local Development Plan • North Ayrshire Local Housing Strategy 2011 - 2016 • North Ayrshire Policy on Unauthorised Gypsy Traveller Encampments • Clydeplan Housing Need and Demand Assessment, 2015

6.7.3 Land Needs

The Local Development Plan process will provide the framework to identify and consult on specific sites taking account of any national published design standards.

6.7.4 Care and Support Needs

A Community Room is available on site for partner services to meet tenants and their children in a safe and comfortable environment. The multipurpose room is used to provide support services to tenants including:

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• Education Tutors - currently three sessions per week (Tuesday, Thursday and Friday), one session specifically for literacy and numeracy

• Connected Community Service (Play team) - currently one session per week (Sept 2014, won 'Nancy Ovens award for play' for services to gypsy travelling community)

• Doctor Surgery - Every week by appointment only NHS Primary care and Early years - Every Friday Morning, services include access to dental health, healthy eating, Opticians, healthy baby program etc.

• North Ayrshire Tenancy Support team - Support with budgeting, debt advice, benefit claims, helping tenants stay in their current tenancies, understanding and managing tenancy rights and responsibilities etc. (recently accredited for their work)

• Welfare Reform team - New service to site, initially starting with benefit maximisation programme and progressing to other welfare reform issues i.e. Universal credit when it is expanded throughout across North Ayrshire

6.7.5 Suitable For

This type of provision will be suitable for Gypsy Travellers and Travelling Show people.

6.7.6 Evidence

There is one Gypsy Travellers site in North Ayrshire. The Redburn travellers site is located two miles from Irvine town centre. Incorporated within the Redburn site are 16 individual pitches including four pitches that are for mobility access. Each pitch has its own amenity block with separate kitchen, shower toilet facilities and utility room. Each tenant is responsible for their rent, council tax and electricity. Current rent is £86.77 per week (plus two rent free fortnights) average weekly rent £80.10 per week. Council tax is Band A, currently £768 plus water rates 128.76 plus waste water rates £149.46 – total £1046.22. Occupancy rate for 2015 was 97.4% and there is currently a waiting list of 12 applicants. A 2015 survey of residents indicated that the reasons for Gypsy Travellers coming to North Ayrshire include:

• Family connections in the area • Liking the area • Moving to the area for work • Gypsy Traveller Churches in the area • Police approach

The survey also showed that 56% of tenants had been resident for less than one year, 13% had been resident between one and two years and 31% had been resident for five years or more. Ninety four per cent of tenants travel for at least part of the year. Seventy five per cent of tenants were satisfied with the site in general.

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The gypsy/traveller/ show people population have been historically difficult to quantify, travelling activity partly accounts for this but the community often do not wish to be counted or identified and as such the counts, surveys etc. are not completely reliable. As part of the HNDA and LHS considerations, NAC has taken part in a desktop research study with other partners across Glasgow, the Clyde Valley and Ayrshire. Key issues to be addressed include:

• Providing an assessment of the current level of site and pitch provision and whether the current provision is adequate

• Providing an assessment of whether sites and pitches currently provided are of an acceptable standard and of the right type

• Current and future need for appropriate sites identified by Clydeplan HNDA The research was specifically commissioned to assist the authorities develop and update their LHSs and aimed to identify and quantify gypsy/travellers/ show peoples accommodation needs over the next five years as well as providing some insight into longer term requirements. The Twice Yearly Count of Gypsies/Travellers in Scotland (undertaken by local authorities) 2009 is the most up to date information available and is the last published official count. At that time, there were estimated to be around 112 households living in the Glasgow, Clyde Valley and Ayrshire area, with 497 estimated households across the whole of Scotland. A Scottish Government review of the count estimated that it may only record a third of the gypsy/travellers in Scotland. At a North Ayrshire level, the count estimated 19 households living in the area, 8 households were resident on Council provided pitches and 11 households were on unauthorised encampments. Scotland’s Census 2011 indicated there were 58 households where the household reference person indicated that they were White: Gypsy/Traveller for the North Ayrshire area. The study did not identify North Ayrshire as an area where further site provision is required. A recent Council survey with Gypsy Travellers in North Ayrshire (2016), noted that of travellers visiting North Ayrshire, 88% of respondents said they would not move to the Redburn site; 75% said they would not like to relocate to North Ayrshire; and 69% said that they only intended to stay in the area for less than a month. This information illustrates the transient nature of travellers and further illustrates the lack of demand for further site provision in the area.

6.7.7 Travelling Showpeople

The planned regeneration of Glasgow’s East End may have led to the displacement of Showpeople living in that area, it is not clear, however, whether there will be an appetite amongst this group to relocate to North Ayrshire. NAC will continue to review the situation.

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6.7.8 External Stakeholder Consultation and Engagement

North Ayrshire Council staff responsible for the provision of Gypsy Traveller sites; including the Divisional Manager and the Gypsy Traveller Co-ordinator, were consulted alongside the wider HMP. Evidence provided included the results of a survey of 25 Gypsy Travellers living on both local authority provided sites and unauthorised encampments.

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6.8 Key Issues Table

LHS

Specialist Provision - Key Issues Identified in the HNDA

Accessible and adapted housing

The LHS and LDP should respond to the need for:

• continuing demand for adaptions that currently outstrip resources.

• barrier free specialist housing solutions • maximising the use of existing adapted stock • dementia suitable housing provision

The demographic projections of an increasingly ageing population means it will be likely that the demand for adaptations and barrier free housing will increase.

Wheelchair housing

The LHS and LDP should respond to the need for:

• better information on the housing needs of wheelchair users

• provision of wheelchair user housing (at least 3% of all provision)

• ad hoc larger ‘wheelchair user’ housing to meet the needs of individual, exceptional, households.

Long term demographic and health changes are likely to mean there will be additional requirements for wheelchair accessible properties.

Non-permanent housing e.g. for students, migrant workers, homeless people, refugees, asylum seekers

The LHS should provide a policy response to:

• Addressing homeless approaches from single person households, a large portion of whom are under the age of 35 and display multiple and complex needs

• The affordability of temporary and permanent accommodation for under 35 years olds, resulting from Welfare Reform.

• The few shared properties and HMO’s available in which under 35’s could access a shared room.

Supported Provision e.g. care homes, sheltered housing, hostels and refuges

The LHS should provide a policy response to meeting the future housing needs for the ageing population, people with mental health conditions, and people with learning disabilities.

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Care/ support services for independent living at home e.g. home help, Handyperson, Telecare

The LHS should provide details of how older people will be supported to remain at home to facilitate independent living.

Site provision e.g. sites/ pitches for Gypsy/ Travellers and sites for Travelling Showpeople

There are no outstanding issues that require a response.