NAVIGANT’S VIEW OF THE NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY MARKET ENERGY CENTRAL WEBINAR OCTOBER 13, 2016 NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 2016: TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS ROB PATRYLAK NAVIGANT MANAGING DIRECTOR GORDON PICKERING NAVIGANT DIRECTOR MAGGIE SHOBER NAVIGANT ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR
34
Embed
NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 2016: TRENDS AND … · 2018. 3. 21. · 2021-2025. 2026-2030. 2031-2035. COAL RETIREMENTS • Navigant tracks retirement announcements and models unit
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Notice Regarding PresentationThis presentation was prepared by Navigant Consulting, Inc. (Navigant) for informational purposes only. Navigant makes no claim to any government data and other data obtained from public sources found in this publication (whether or not the owners of such data are noted in this publication).
Navigant does not make any express or implied warranty or representation concerning the information contained in this presentation, or as to merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or function. This presentation is incomplete without reference to, and should be viewed solely in conjunction with the oral briefing provided by Navigant. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution without prior written approval from Navigant.
Transition industry away from coal toward natural gas, energy efficiency, and renewables, causing substantial planning and generation asset transaction activity
• Installed costs for renewables remain low or keep falling over next decade• RPS and economics driving increased penetration for renewables • Installed solar expected to grow 600% between 2015 and 2025
RPS/AEPS
Renewable Goal
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2015 2025 2035
(GW
)
Installed Large-Scale Wind and Solar, North America
Wind Solar
Renewable Portfolio Standard Policies
(Source: Navigant Energy Market Outlook) (Source: DSIRE)
• Based on LNG projects that are in construction or on-stream now, five US export terminals will be on by 2020:- Sabine Pass, LA (Cheniere): First train on-stream
February 24, 2016; five other trains planned- Cameron LNG, Hackberry, LA (Sempra, Engie,
Mitsui, Mitsubishi, Nippon): Three trains in construction (trains 4-5 FERC filed in May 2015), EA issued February 2016, DOE export approval received July 2016 for add; 1.4 Bcfd; on-stream 2018
- Freeport LNG, Brazoria Country, TX (M. Smith): Three trains in construction, 13.2 mtpa, 1.7 Bcfd, one additional train submitted to FERC in May 2015 for about 7 mtpa (total 20 mtpa or 2.6 Bcfd); on-stream 2019
- Corpus Christi, San Patricio County, TX (Cheniere): Two trains FID (8.4 mtpa or 1.1 Bcfd), three other trains planned; on-stream 2018
- Cove Point, Calvert Country, MD (Dominion): One train FID (5.25 mtpa or 0.77 Bcfd); on-stream scheduled for 2017
• Navigant forecasts US LNG export capacity of 10 Bcfd by 2022 (or 11% of US gas demand in 2022)
• With growing pipeline exports to Mexico and Canada, as announced previously, the United States is set to become a net exporter of natural gas in 2016 (pipe and LNG by ship)
• In its 2016 North American Gas Market Outlook, Navigant estimates gas shale production will increase 103% (or by 36.6 Bcfd) between 2015 to 2040
• With a renewable policy mandate (such as the Clean Power Plan currently on hold), gas demand for electric generation would increase as the decline of coal output continues, but it is likely that power prices would increase as gas use in electric generation increases
• It is also likely that if such renewable generation policy was put in place, by 2050, higher gas and power prices would reduce total energy use in the non-electric sectors
• Total gas demand would also decrease (primarily industrial demand) as renewables (perhaps nuclear, advanced biofuels) would need higher prices to be able to meet the needs of the US electric market
The Impacts on the US Economy from Gas Shale Have Been Large to Date and Are Expected to Continue in the Future
• The impacts of gas shale are viewed as important and a key contributor to limiting global warming to 2°C as policymakers worldwide have established in order to avoid a global catastrophe
• In order to limit global warming, CO2 emissions need to be reduced and lower-carbon energy systems will need to be used
• Most man-made CO2 is caused by coal-fired generation (as capture and storage technologies, while hopeful, have yet to be developed)- Coal-to-gas switching as a result of economics (not policy) has resulted in total gas-fired
generation overtaking US coal generation burn for the first time ever—31% to 30% in April 2015
Gas Shale and its Impact on Climate Change in the US Has Been Resoundingly Positive
• Natural gas security has meant expanded gas use in electric generation• Increased share for gas in the US energy mix• Inexpensive natural gas has spurred a revival in American manufacturing and has
fostered LNG exports that will shrink the trade deficit, strengthen the dollar, and bolster employment
• Newfound security of supply benefits will continue to provide the United States with the ability to rebalance America’s stature in the world; such is the importance of energy in the global economy
• Security means that gas may play a larger role in the near to mid term in response to CO2 emissions constraints; this may allow some very stringent emissions regulations in the long term that could limit all fossil fuels
• A vastly different global gas market, expanding exports of LNG from North America and a growing global gas market