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North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL
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North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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Global Corporate in North America © Zurich North America 3 Agenda Tuesday, February 24 1:00 pmWelcomeGreg Maguire 1:15 pmZurich & Global Corporate UpdateMario Vitale 2:00 pmEconomic Outlook / Q&ADaniel Hofmann 2:35 pmZurich’s perspective on the financialMike Kerner and insurance markets including reinsurances Zurich review of counter parties for reinsurance beyond the rating agencies 3:05 pmNew Products / SolutionsMike Garceau 3:15 pmRound-table OPEN discussion facilitated by: Paul Horgan 3:55 pmClosing, next steps & next meetingMario Vitale 4:00 pmMeeting adjourns
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Page 1: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar

February 24, 2009

CONFIDENTIAL

Page 2: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

Global Corporate in North America2

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Welcome New MembersDan Baldwin - Leggett & Platt

Paul Prouty - Newmont Mining

Alain Simard - Saputo Inc.

Claudia Temple - Kraft Foods

Steve Allison - The Shaw Group

Stacey Regan - General Electric Company

Chris Gallagher – Procter & Gamble

Page 3: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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AgendaTuesday, February 241:00 pm Welcome Greg Maguire

1:15 pm Zurich & Global Corporate UpdateMario Vitale

2:00 pm Economic Outlook / Q&ADaniel Hofmann

2:35 pm Zurich’s perspective on the financial Mike Kerner

and insurance markets including reinsurances

Zurich review of counter parties for reinsurancebeyond the rating agencies

3:05 pm New Products / SolutionsMike Garceau

3:15 pm Round-table OPEN discussion facilitated by: Paul Horgan

3:55 pm Closing, next steps & next meeting Mario Vitale

4:00 pm Meeting adjourns

Page 4: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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Why a Risk Management Council? Mission

Provide an open forum for discussion and information exchange between Zurich in North America and Risk Managers

Explore current issues and trends affecting the management of risk

Seek collaborative development of contemporary, tangible solutions for Zurich in North America and its customers

Page 5: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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Objectives

 Encourage constructive dialog between large corporations and Zurich.Establish two-way communication between Zurich senior management and industry representatives on economic, regulatory and social issues which may affect our industry or our customers' industries.Create an understanding of Zurich and of its customers' product and service needs so as to align our respective operations to meet these needs.Provide Risk Managers an opportunity to exchange information.

 

Page 6: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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Council structure and terms of service

Risk managers from large domestic and global companies

Three year termsRegular meeting attendance (attend 4 of the 6 meetings)

One third of memberships expire each year One third are new

Page 7: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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Company membership criteria Values long-term relationships Values solid risk engineering and claims services Values direct dialogue with carriers

Views price as one criteria in buying decision, but not sole criteria

Page 8: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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Company membership criteria Values carriers with international capabilities

Risk management is a key function Global company with strong financial rating (BB

or better)

Annual revenues greater than USD 750 million

Page 9: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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Risk manager selection criteria

Proven track record of exploring new, innovative approaches to risk financing and management

Active in the professional community via RIMS or other professional groups

Position of authority within firm and some autonomy in decision-making

Page 10: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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Council “members-only” web sitewww.registration123.com/zurich/NARMC/SITE

Page 11: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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Coming soon!

The NEW Zurich Virtual Concierge!

You’re “personal” Zurich HelpPointYou’re very own Zurich “p-url”

Page 12: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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NEW! Virtual Literature

Rack

Page 13: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

Zurich and Global Corporate Update

Mario P. VitaleCEO, Global Corporate

Page 14: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

14

Global Corporate CEO - My new role

ZFS 2008 Financial Results – an overview

What can you expect from Zurich? – 2009 Strategy

WEF Report

State of the Market – an overview

Q & A

Page 15: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

15

Global Corporate CEO – My new role

GC CharimanGeoff Riddell

GC CEOMario Vitale

GC CUOAlan Fairhead

GC COOAnn Haugh

GC HR Business PartnerRobin Buendia

GC Customer & Distrib.David Martin

GC CFOMike Reid

GC CCOChris Barnes

CEO GCiEThomas Hürlimann

CEO GCiNAMario Vitale

CEO GCiAPHugh Robson

Page 16: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

16

Global Corporate CEO - My new role

ZFS 2008 Financial Results – an overview

What can you expect from Zurich? – 2009 Strategy

WEF Report

State of the Market – an overview

Q & A

Page 17: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

17

1 Snapshot on the summarized consolidated results of the Group for the YE Dec 31, 2008 & 2007 respectively. These are unaudited results that should be read in conjunction with the ZFS Group Annual Report 2008 for further details

2 Parentheses around numbers represent an adverse variance3 After tax, as % of APE (Annual Premium Equivalent)4 Margin on gross earned premiums of the Farmers Exchanges. Zurich Financial Services has no ownership interest in the Farmers Exchanges. Farmers Group,

Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of the Group, provides management services to the Farmers Exchanges and receives fees for its services.

ZFS 2008 Financial Results – Highlights1

In USDm 2008 2007 Change2

Business Operating Profit 5’186 6’707 (23%)Net income attributable to shareholders 3’039 5’714 (47%)General Insurance combined ratio 98.1% 95.6% (2.5 pts)Global Life New Business margin3 23.1% 24.7% (1.7 pts)Farmers Mgmt Services managed GEP margin4 6.9% 6.8% 0.1 ptsReturn on common shareholders’ equity (ROE) 12.1% 21.3% (9.2 pts)Business operating profit (after tax) ROE 16.8% 18.9% (2.1 pts)

Source: ZFS Financial Report 2008

Zurich achieved impressive results in a challenging environment, recording its 24th quarter of profitability with a BOP over 5 USD billions and delivering a 12.1% ROE to our shareholdersGI GWP and policy fees were up 4% and the combined ration was 98.1%Global Corporate contributed to the results

Page 18: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

18

Zurich’s current ratings

How analysts commented our 2008 result

“That the company could have achieved such a performance in such a difficult macro environment we think is a strong testament to its resiliency and defensiveness. With operating performance expected to stay good, capital should regrow relatively quickly in our view.”

Brian Shea, Merrill Lynch

“ The group is not immune to the credit crisis, but solvency ratio I ratio per year end 2008 is a solid 153% and as such the group remains well placed to weather the current credit crisis and benefit from a possible hardening of rates in the US non life market.”

Andreas VanEmbden, Cazenove

Financial Strength Rating S&P Moody’s A.M. Best Fitch

- Zurich Insurance Company AA-/Stable A1/Stable A/Stable A+/Positive

- Zurich American Insurance Co. AA-/Stable n.r. A/Stable n.r.

- Zurich Australian Insurance Ltd. A+/Stable n.r. n.r. n.r.

Page 19: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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Perfect Storm

Decreased investment

income

Worldwide recession

Record breaking

catastrophes

Prolonged, deep soft market

Page 20: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

20

Economic Outlook for 2009

Page 21: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

21

Global Corporate CEO - My new role

ZFS 2008 Financial Results – an overview

What can you expect from Zurich? – 2009 Strategy

WEF Report

State of the Market – an overview

Q & A

Page 22: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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What can you expect from Zurich?Global Corporate priorities for 2009

We continue delivering on our Strategy …

ProfitabilityExpense ManagementTalent ManagementGC Transformation ProgramChange Management

Page 23: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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What can you expect from Zurich?Global Corporate priorities for 2009

… in order to deliver what our customers need…

A strong financial partnerOperational excellenceGlobal and integrated insurance solutions The right people who think globally & act locallyDelivery “when it matters”

ONE ZURICH Experience

Page 24: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

24

What can you expect from Zurich?Global Corporate priorities for 2009

…and become a true Market Leader!

„GC will be recognized as the most relevant supplier of products and solutions to corporate customers throughout the world,

whilst operating efficiently and effectively“

Page 25: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

25

Global Corporate CEO - My new role

ZFS 2008 Financial Results – an overview

What can you expect from Zurich? – 2009 Strategy

WEF Report

State of the Market – an overview

Q & A

Page 26: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

26

Global risks have increased

Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal TechnologicalFood price volatility Climate change Terrorism Pandemics Breakdown of CII

Oil / gas price spike

Loss of fresh water Collapse of NPT Infectious

diseases Nanotechnology

Major fall in US$ Desertification US/Iran conflict Chronic diseases

Chinese hard landing Earthquakes US/DPRK conflict Liability

regimes

Fiscal crises Inland flooding Afghanistan instability

Asset price collapse Cyclone

Transnational crime and corruption

Retrenchment from globalization

Israel-Palestine conflict

Violence in Iraq

Increased riskUnchanged riskDecreased risk

Key:

Change in 27 risks also included in 2008 report

Source: Global Risks Report 2009 / Zurich

Page 27: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

27

Strongercorrelation

Current account deficit / fall in US$

International terrorism

Pandemics

Climate change

Retrenchment from globalisation

China economic hard landing

Middle East instability

Developing world disease

Inland flooding

EarthquakesChronic disease in developed countries

Interstate and Civil Wars

Transnational crime and corruption

Asset prices

Oil price shock

Emergence of nanotech risks

Tropical storms

Failed and failing states

Fiscal crises

Breakdown of CII

Loss of freshwater services

Spread of liability regimes

Proliferation of WMD

Key:

Why worry?

Source: Global Risks Report 2009 / Zurich

Page 28: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

28

A remarkable neglect in the C-Suite

Source: PwC 11th Annual Global CEO Survey

Percentage of CEOs concerned about specific risks

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Economic downturn

Energy security

Supply chain

Climate change

Terrorism

Pandemics

2007 2008

Page 29: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

29

The need for comprehensive Enterprise Risk Management

ERM

Corporate FailuresLarge Catastrophes• WorldCom• Enron• Credit crisis

Industry Initiatives

• Treadway Report, US• Turnbull Report, UK• Dey Report, Canada

Best Practices• Banks• Asset Managers• Energy Firms• Corporations

Regulatory Actions• S.E.C.• Sarbanes-Oxley• Basel II• Regulators• ISO 31000 (July ‘07)

Source: Zurich Financial Services

Page 30: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

30

We do it at Zurich, too

TRPs for Business Segments

TRPs for Business Divisions

TRPs forRegions and Business Units

Inpu

t fo

r th

ough

t st

arte

rs

Gro

up K

ey F

ocus

Poi

nt Group TRP

Source: Zurich Financial Services

Page 31: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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Our challenge: Integrate global risks into ERM

The corporate sector is under-investing in the mitigation of global risks

Investments should be undertaken within a comprehensive enterprise risk management framework

Technical sophistication is less important than planning for the next crisis

Don’t be surprised by the predictable!!

Page 32: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

32

Global Corporate CEO - My new role

ZFS 2008 Financial Results – an overview

What can you expect from Zurich? – 2009 Strategy

WEF Report

State of the Market – an overview

Q & A

Page 33: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

33

Market & Industry forecast

Hardening market for global corporate with some other segments experiencing no turn in rates until late 2009, early 2010

Another above average hurricane season

Large industry losses from Madoff scandal

Recession expected to last throughout the year

New administration in The White House

New surprises not yet uncovered

Changes in competition due to financial stress

Page 34: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

34

Market & Industry Forecast – Zurich response

Mario VitaleCEO Global Corporate ZFS

Page 35: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

35

Global Corporate CEO - My new role

ZFS 2008 Financial Results – an overview

What can you expect from Zurich? – 2009 Strategy

WEF Report

State of the Market – an overview

Q & A

Page 36: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

Looking into the Abyss

Daniel M. HofmannGroup Chief EconomistZurich Financial Services

Page 37: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

37

Disclaimer and cautionary statementCertain statements in this document are forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, statements that are predications of or indicate future events, trends, plans or objectives. Undue reliance should not be placed on such statements because, by their nature, they are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Zurich Financial Services undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any of these forward-looking statements, whether to reflect new information, future events or circumstances or otherwise. This communication is directed only at persons who (i) have professional experience in matters relating to investments or (ii) are persons falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) (high net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc) of The Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 (as amended) or to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as relevant persons). This communication must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this communication relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. 

Page 38: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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Global trade is at a standstill

Source: Thomson Datastream

Baltic Exchange Dry Index

0

2'000

4'000

6'000

8'000

10'000

12'000

01/04 09/04 05/05 01/06 09/06 05/07 01/08 09/08

General macro

Page 39: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

39

The recession is on for some time now…

Source: Zurich

General macro

2008

Economic activity index for the United States and Germany

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

United States Germany

Values below -1 denote a recession

2009

Page 40: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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… there is no quick end in sight… General macro

Source: Thomson Datastream

Leading indicators for the US and Germany

-25-20-15-10-505

101520

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

y/y-ch

ange

in p

erce

nt

ECRI (US) Business expectations (GER)

Page 41: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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General macro Financial stress at exorbitant levels

Source: Zurich

US financial stress indexWeek of February 20, 2009

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

01/07 07/07 01/08 07/08 01/09

Stan

dard

dev

iatio

ns fr

om m

ean

March 17: Collapse of

Bear Stearns

July 13: Extensive financial aid for

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

November 19:Fear of huge credit card debts

October 8: Global slump of equity markets

September: Collapse of Lehman and AIG

Page 42: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

42

Global banks were hit hard

Source: Bloomberg / Feb 20, 2009

Includes AIG Includes AIG

Writedowns Accumulated, USD billions

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

HY 08 FY 08 YTD 09

Asia Europe Americas

Capital raised Accumulated, USD billions

0

100

200300

400

500

600

700800

900

1000

HY 08 FY 08 YTD 09

Asia Europe Americas

The financial sector

Page 43: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

43

Insurers to feel more pain

Source: Bloomberg / Feb 20, 2009

But more asset write-offs to come

The financial sector

Losses and replenishmentsSince October 2007; in USD billions

48.9

18.6

40.1

10.33.7

20.3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Writedowns* Capital raised*

Monolines P&C Life

* without AIG

Page 44: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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The financial sector Rapid adjustment in the US stock market

Source: Datastream, Zurich

Mature market equitiesIndex = 100 at market peak

40

60

80

100

-300 -150 0 150 300 450 600Days relative to market peak

Perce

nt

2007 - 2009 1999 - 2001

Index peaks2007-2009: Oct 31, 2007 1999-2001: Mar 28, 2000

Page 45: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

1968-1977

1958-1967

1948-1957

1995-2007

1988-1997

1978-1987

Decades

19911941 19511890 1886187019951997

1957196619732001

1982

1961196319671976

19831996199819992003

1932

1903191319141929

19341939194019461953196219691977195119902000

1905

1892189718981904

191819191921192619441949195219591954196519681971197219791986198820042006

1877

1871187218741875

1881186718891891189418951896189919021906191119121916192319471948195619601970

19841978

1987

19931992

1994

20072005

19351939

19171920

19421943

18831887

18641878

18681869

19351958

191319541974

2002

193619381945

1930

183718411854

1910

190019011909

1925

184518511853

1882

183518471848

1858

184218441856

195019551975

187318841893

191519221934

186018611876

184918501855

1859186518661867

1937 184318631928

186218791885

185719071910

183019081927

182518281831

184618521880

182718331835

182918321834

182618361840

1911

We areWe are herehere

2008

-50 to -40

-40 to -30

-30 to -20

-20 to -10 -10 to 0 0 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 30 30 to 40 40 to 50 50 to 60

1839

Truly a once in 100 years event

The financial sector US total market returns 1825-2008

Page 46: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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A framework for analysis From the financial to the real cycle

In the past, the real cycle lagged the financial cycle by 7 to 12 months

Higher creditlosses

Reduced creditsupply

Weakereconomy

Real economy drivenFinancial markets driven

AsseAsset t

salessales

Falling Falling asset asset valuesvalues

LeverageLeveragetoo hightoo high

Capital Capital reducedreduced

Page 47: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

47 Close down for long

period

Glo

bal

cred

it

a

nd c

apit

al m

arke

ts

Severe slowdown Moderate slowdownEconomic activity

Limited constraints

Slow recovery

Peak to trough>12 months

-------------Recovery

18 – 24 months

Long freeze

Peak to trough>12 months--------------Recovery

6 – 10 years

Quick fix

Peak to trough6 – 9 months

Roller coasterPeak to trough6 – 9 months----------------False dawn

3 – 6 months---------------------Peak to trough6 – 9 months

A framework for analysis Stylized recession types

Page 48: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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Implications for insurance A hard market?

Source: CIABSource: ISO/Zurich

“The soft market trend has turned” – MarketScout, January 7, 2009

US policyholder surplusUSD billions

370390

410430

450470

490510

530

2007 2008 2009

Forecast

Expected decline of 25% in '08

Reversal in rate changesUS commercial business; average all lines

-15%

-12%

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

21%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

KatrinaRitaWilma

2009 expectations:

- Commercial property, non CAT - Commercial property, CAT- Energy, Gulf of Mexico- Energy, other- Marine hull- Airline

Δ in %

0-1010-25

50-10010 5 5

Source: Merryll Lynch

Page 49: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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Implications for insurance The market’s view on competitors

5-yr CDS spreads on January 30, 2009

0 200 400 600 800 1'000

XL

AIG

Swiss Re

Aviva

ING

Axa

Zurich

Ace

Allianz

RSA

GeneraliExtreme spread widening; upward shift for all firms and three segments with Zurich comfortable in the middle of the top tier

II

III

I

Source: Thomson Datastream

5-yr CDS spreads on June 30, 2007

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

XL

Ace

AIG

Swiss Re

Zurich

RSA

Axa

Allianz

ING

Aviva

GeneraliVery compressed spreads with three segments; little differentiation within segments, and Zurich in the middle of the second tier

III

II

I

Page 50: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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Real GDP forecast 2008 - 2010

2008 2009 2010United States 1.2 -1.6 0.7

Euro area - Germany - Italy - Spain

0.91.3

- 0.51.2

- 2.0- 2.5- 2.1- 1.7

0.20.1-0.1-0.1

United Kingdom 0.8 - 2.8 0.2

Switzerland 1.8 - 0.9 0.6

Japan -0.3 - 2.6 0.4

Source: IMF / Zurich /Créa

Appendix 1

Page 51: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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2008 2009 2010United States 4.0 -1.0 1.9

Euro area - Germany - Italy - Spain

3.42.83.64.2

0.50.30.60.7

1.10.61.01.8

United Kingdom 3.6 1.0 1.4

Switzerland 2.5 0.2 1.2

Japan 1.4 -0.5 -0.2

CPI inflation forecast 2008 - 2010

Source: Oxford Economics

Appendix 2

Page 52: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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Forex adjustments are underway

Source: Thomson Datastream

Appendix 3

Trade weighted exchange ratesJan 2000 - Feb 2009

70

90

110

130

150

170

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Inde

x 199

0=10

0

USD EUR GBP JPY

Page 53: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

Zurich’s perspective on the financial and insurance markets

Mike KernerGlobal CUO, General Insurance

Page 54: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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Agenda

1. Zurich’s Perspective on the Financial and Insurance Markets (including reinsurance)

2. Zurich’s Review of Counter Parties for Reinsurance (beyond the rating agencies)

Page 55: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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The recession is on for some time now…

Source: Zurich

General macro

Economic activity index for the United States and Germany

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

United States Germany

Values below -1 denote a recession

2008

Page 56: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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… and there is no quick end in sightGeneral macro

Source: Thomson Datastream

Leading indicators for the US and Germany

-25-20-15-10-505

101520

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

y/y-ch

ange

in p

erce

nt

ECRI (US) Business expectations (GER)

Page 57: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

57

Higher creditlosses

Reduced creditsupply

WeakereconomyAsseAsse

t t salesale

ss

Falling Falling asset asset valuesvalues

LeverageLeveragetoo hightoo high

General macro From the financial to the real cycle

Financial markets driven Real economy driven

Capital Capital reducedreduced

Page 58: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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Stress imposed relative to June 30, 2008• Equities -25% • ABS -

5%• Real estate -15% • BBB/A -

5%• Alt A -10% • AAA/AA -2%• Subprime -20%Source: Citibank

Capital buffers relative to S&P "A" ratingTop 10 European insurers

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E Stress

Varia

nce i

n EU

R bi

llions

Similar loss in financial strengthbut from different starting points

Implications for insurance Solvency could become an issue

Page 59: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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Implications for insurance Bond yields are falling

Source: FxStreet.com, US interest rates

Page 60: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

60

Implications for insurance Reinsurance capacity is constrained

Capital constraints in place

Capital Markets (temporarily??) shut down

Withdrawal of Hedge Fund and Private Equity Capacity

Reinsurers’ “ReLoad” Strategy in question.

Reinsurance Prices are Going Up

Page 61: North America Risk Management Council Meeting/Webinar February 24, 2009 CONFIDENTIAL.

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Implications for insurance Pricing Needs to Increase

Profits and Financial Strength must come from Underwriting.

Balance sheets must be rebuilt.

The price of Risk must be fully and correctly priced.

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Agenda

1. Zurich’s Perspective on the Financial and Insurance Markets (including reinsurance)

2. Zurich’s Review of Counter Parties for Reinsurance (beyond the rating agencies)

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Zurich’s View of Reinsurance

Purposes of Reinsurance (partial list)Primarily, a Form of Risk CapitalA vehicle to take volatility out of EarningsFacilitates Risk Sharing, Retention and SpreadingA Source of Market/Product Expertise

Advantages“Annual” optionalityFlexible in design

DisadvantagesReinsurance Recoverables are Illiquid and UntradableEmbedded Credit RiskEmbedded Accounting/Operational Risk

We fundamentally believe that markets workArbitrage Opportunities are RareSavings through risk diversification are possible

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Strategy – Optimize Reinsurance Purchasing

The total reinsurance spend of the Group was USD 5.9bn in 2007.The Cession Rate of General Insurance decreased from 16.1% to 15% in 2007.Cession rate reduction was mainly achieved by increasing retentions and eliminating working layer covers. Premium Growth of the Group also contributed

USDm

Reinsurance Spend and Cession Rate (r.s)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200712%

15%

18%

21%

24%

27%

Total Ceded Premium Cession Rate - General Insurance

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Reinsurance Governance Starts with Zurich Risk Policy

Zurich Risk Policy - Chapters 2, 4 and 7

Global Head of Group

Reinsurance

Heads of Group Re Purchasing Centers

Reinsurance Account

Managers

Financial Credit Risk AnalysisAnalytical Evaluation

Catastrophe analysis

Tools and capabilities

Reinsurance Strategy

Daily Management

Corporate Reinsurance Security CommitteeAuthority Statements

Oversight processes

Group Finance CommitteeGroup Reinsurance

CommitteeGroup Controller DepartmentBD Reinsurance Networks

Group Balance Sheet Committee

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Approval process for reinsurers

Zurich Risk Policy (ZRP) defines the acceptable limits per reinsurer reflecting the respective credit quality and Zurich’s capital base.

Limits consider exposure net of collateral

Group Risk Management analyzes all the reinsurers and applies an internal rating which might deviate from the official ratings

Based on independent financial analysis and additional insights

Corporate Reinsurance Security Committee (CRSC) decides about the acceptability of reinsurers and sets potential limitations or restrictions individually for each reinsurer.

e.g. short-tail vs. long tail acceptability

Group Credit Risk Management (GCRM) continuously monitors the developments in the markets in order to quickly implement appropriate correction measures.

GCRM perform stress tests assuming multiple global natural catastrophe events and a simultaneous financial market crisis.

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Reinsurance Assets - Measures already taken

Continuous reduction of purchased reinsurance.

Corporate Reinsurance Security Committee (CRSC) approves acceptable reinsurance partners applying the Zurich Risk Policy guidelines for credit risk.

Created Reinsurance Asset Management Team in 2005 leading to the following achievements:

Implemented single name credit default swap program and purchased protectionNegotiated collateral agreements with reinsurance companiesContinuous evaluation and execution of commutation opportunities Introduced stringent termination and off-set clauses into the reinsurance contracts

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Questions?

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New Products / Solutions

Michael GarceauCOO & CFO, Specialties

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Agenda

Zurich OverviewSpecialties OverviewSpecialties NAC - OrganizationNew Products / Solutions

Cyber LiabilitySpecialty E&OUmbrellaCorporate D&OTrade Credit

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Zurich Overview

Global franchise doing business in 170 countriesStrong & stable financial ratings (S&P AA-)Delivered a 1% return on $180b of invested assets (as of 12/31/08)Business Operating Profit (BOP) of $5.3b in 200824 consecutive quarters of profitability

Financial strength is critically important during these challenging times, particularly on long-tailed

business

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Specialties Overview

A top tier player in our chosen Specialty lines in the US with $2.4b GWP in 2008Over 600 employees across North America in 24 officesCenter of technical expertise and underwriting knowledge for specialty linesIntegrated approach to assessing risks (Underwriting, Claims and Actuarial)Committed to delivering distinctive products for unique risks through our focused approach to serving customer needs

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Specialties NAC - Organization

PresidentSeraina Maag(212) 553 33 13

Medical PL

Specialty E&OCyber Liability

Corp. D&O

MM D&O

EPLICaptiveAgents

Crime

CorporateAccident

Occ. Accident

Disability

Specialty Health

GroupUmbrella

XS Casualty

SpecialCasualty

Professional Liability

Marcia Munn(212) 859 26 70

ManagementLiabilitySalvatore Pollaro(212) 553 55 31

A&H

Bryan Salvatore(212) 553 56 97

Casualty

Bob Shine(212) 553 57 51

Railroad

A&H Sales

Surety, Credit & Political RiskDaniel Riordan(202) 585 31 01

Political Risk

Trade Credit

Core Surety

Large Surety

International Surety

Commercial Surety

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New Products / SolutionsProfessional Liability

Cyber Liability (Security and Privacy Liability)What’s New – Security & Privacy product expected to be released in June 2009, coverage for 1st and 3rd party risks is availableAppetite – Wide range of industry classes, specifics still evolvingCapacity – To be finalized, likely in the $10m rangeExpertise – Brad Gow, formerly of ACE has been hired to lead the Specialty E&O group. Brad has extensive background in network security issues.

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New Products / SolutionsProfessional Liability

Specialty E&OWhat’s New – Zurich Pro Plus was released in the marketplace late 2008 (feedback from Brokers has been excellent)Appetite – Engineering, technology, real estate, media, specified professions (e.g., consultants) with three distinct revenue bands– $1 - $5m– $15m to $1b– > $1b (excess policies only)

Capacity – up to $10mExpertise – dedicated Specialty E&O team led by Brad Gow providing specialized regional underwriting support, specialized claims, centralized administration and focus on ease of doing business

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New Products / SolutionsCasualty

UmbrellaWhat’s New– Now offering coverage above a SIR, Important change driven

by customer need / feedback– Appetite – wide range of small-to-medium size businesses – Capacity - $1m - $25m

General– Sustainable and consistent provider of coverage– Broad appetite with limits up to $50m– Flexible A/B form following primary coverage helps reduce

likelihood of gaps in coverage, no territory restrictions

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New Products / SolutionsManagement Liability

Corporate D&OWhat’s New– Zurich Specialties will release a new, state of the art policy form at RIMS

(April 19 – 23), incorporating numerous benefits and policy enhancements requested by brokers and customers

– Appetite – Fortune 2000 companies, although can provide solutions for middle market companies as well

– Capacity - $25m on a primary or excess basisGeneral– Broad appetite with limits up to $35m– Multinational capabilities, critical for global customers– Flexible and responsive manuscripting

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New Products / SolutionsSurety, Political Risk and Trade Credit

Trade Credit (Domestic xs. Credit)What’s New - New product offers protection from losses associated with the non-payment of trade related receivables by the insured’s customers due to financial or political eventsAppetite – Broad appetite ranging from middle market to Fortune 500 companiesCapacity - Policy limits up to $75m and single obligor limits up to $37.5mExpertise - Hired new team from AIG (John Pellew)

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Round-table / Open discussion

Facilitated by:Paul HorganCUO, Global Corporate,North America

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Open discussion

Risk Profile Map What risks are keeping you up at night?

Collateral New Considerations*

*(bank quality, bankruptcy law / interpretations vis a vis cash as collateral, Reg 114 trusts, add'l fee's / premium in lieu of collateral)

What creative solutions to collateral council members have experienced / heard about

Other

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Closing & next steps

Mario P. VitaleCEO, Global Corporate

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THANK YOU for

Participating!

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Meeting Participants

Council MembersSteve Allison – The Shaw Group Inc.Dan Baldwin – Leggett & PlattDavid Binder – Nestle USATim Bunt – CB Richard Ellis, Inc.Vince Coffey – Novelis Inc.Mark Davis – Constellation Brands, Inc.Stacey Regan - GEManny Difilippo – George Weston LimitedHoward Edelstein – Sealed Air CorporationLance Ewing – Harrah’s EntertainmentChris Gallagher – Procter & GamblePaula Gentile – MGM MirageGreg Hoff – The ServiceMaster CompanyLeslie Lamb – CiscoGlenn Peterson – EWI Inc.Paul Prouty – Newmont Mining CorporationDebbie Rodgers – AramarkScott Sanderson – Koch Industries Inc.Scot Schwarting – WhirlpoolAlain Simard – Saputo Inc.Claudia Temple – Kraft Foods Inc.Heidrun Toben – Alstom Power, Inc.

Zurich Mario Vitale – CEO, Global CorporateChris Barnes – CCO, Global CorporateRon Davis – EVP, Head of Customer Management, Zurich

Financial ServicesJP Fowler – EVP, Relationship Management, Global

Corporate in North AmericaMichael Garceau – COO & CFO, Specialties, North

America CommercialAnn Haugh – COO, Global CorporateMonique Hesseling – CMO, Global EnergyDaniel Hofmann – Group Chief Economist, Zurich

Financial ServicesPaul Horgan – CUO, Global Corporate in North AmericaMike Kerner – CUO, Zurich Financial ServicesBrenda Lombardo – SVP, Head of Marketing, Global

Corporate in North AmericaGreg Maguire – EVP, Head of Customer & Distribution

Management, Global Corporate in North AmericaKevin McCracken – EVP, Head of Casualty, Global

Corporate in North AmericaJoe Tocco – EVP, Head of Property, Global Corporate in

North AmericaUrs Uhlman – SVP, Head of Corporate Business, Global

Corporate Canada

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