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Normal Distributions

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Chapter 6. Normal Distributions. Understandable Statistics Ninth Edition By Brase and Brase Prepared by Yixun Shi Bloomsburg University of Pennsylvania. The Normal Distribution. A continuous distribution used for modeling many natural phenomena. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Page 1: Normal Distributions

ChapterNormal Probability Distributions

1 of 105

6

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc.All rights reserved.

Page 2: Normal Distributions

Chapter Outline

• 6.1 Graphs of Normal Probability Distributions• 6.2 Standard Units and Areas Under the Standard

Normal Distribution• 6.3 Areas Under Any Normal Curve• 6.4 Normal Approximations to Binomial

Distributions

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Page 3: Normal Distributions

Section 6.1

Graphs of Normal Probability Distributions

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Page 4: Normal Distributions

Section 6.1 Objectives

• Graph a normal curve and summarize its important properties

• Apply the empirical rule to solve real-world problems

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Page 5: Normal Distributions

Continuous Probability Distribution

Continuous random variable • Has an infinite number of possible values that can be

represented by an interval on the number line.

Continuous probability distribution• The probability distribution of a continuous random

variable.

Hours spent studying in a day

0 63 9 1512 18 2421

The time spent studying can be any number between 0 and 24.

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Page 6: Normal Distributions

Properties of Normal Distributions

Normal distribution • A continuous probability distribution for a random

variable, x. • The most important continuous probability

distribution in statistics.• The graph of a normal distribution is called the

normal curve.

x

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Page 7: Normal Distributions

Properties of Normal Distributions

1. The mean, median, and mode are equal.2. The normal curve is bell-shaped and is symmetric

about the mean.3. The total area under the normal curve is equal to 1.4. The normal curve approaches, but never touches, the

x-axis as it extends farther and farther away from the mean.

x

Total area = 1

μ© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 7 of 105

Page 8: Normal Distributions

Properties of Normal Distributions5. Between μ – σ and μ + σ (in the center of the curve),

the graph curves downward. The graph curves upward to the left of μ – σ and to the right of μ + σ. The points at which the curve changes from curving upward to curving downward are called the inflection points, or transition points.

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 8 of 105

μ – 3σ μ + σμ – σ μ μ + 2σ μ + 3σμ – 2σ

2

2( )

21( )2

x

f x e

Page 9: Normal Distributions

Means and Standard Deviations

• A normal distribution can have any mean and any positive standard deviation.

• The mean gives the location of the line of symmetry.• The standard deviation describes the spread of the

data.

μ = 3.5σ = 1.5

μ = 3.5σ = 0.7

μ = 1.5σ = 0.7

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Page 10: Normal Distributions

Exercise 1: Understanding Mean and Standard Deviation

1. Which normal curve has the greater mean?

Solution:Curve A has the greater mean (The line of symmetry of curve A occurs at x = 15. The line of symmetry of curve B occurs at x = 12.)

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Page 11: Normal Distributions

Exercise 2: Understanding Mean and Standard Deviation

2. Which curve has the greater standard deviation?

Solution:Curve B has the greater standard deviation (Curve B is more spread out than curve A.)

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Page 12: Normal Distributions

Example: Interpreting Graphs

The scaled test scores for the New York State Grade 8 Mathematics Test are normally distributed. The normal curve shown below represents this distribution. What is the mean test score? Estimate the standard deviation.Solution:

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Because a normal curve is symmetric about the mean, you can estimate that μ ≈ 675.

Because the inflection points are one standard deviation from the mean, you can estimate that σ ≈ 35.

Page 13: Normal Distributions

Example: Two Normal Curves

Both curves have the samemean, µ = 6.

Curve A has a standarddeviation of σ = 1.

Curve B has a standarddeviation of σ = 3.

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Page 14: Normal Distributions

The Empirical Rule

Page 15: Normal Distributions

The Empirical Rule

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Exercise 3: Sketch Distribution

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The playing life of a Sunshine radio is normally distributed with a mean of 600 hours and a standard deviation of 100 hours. Sketch a normal curve showing the distribution of the playing life of the Sunshine radio. Scale and label the axis; include the transition points.

Page 17: Normal Distributions

Exercise 4: Use Empirical Rule

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The playing life of a Sunshine radio is normally distributed with a mean of 600 hours and a standard deviation of 100 hours. Use the empirical rule to compute the probabilities that a randomly selected radio will last as specified:Life of Randomly Selected Radio

Probability Expression

Probability Calculation

Between 600 and 700 hours

 

Between 400 and 500 hours

   

Greater than 700 hours 

   

Page 18: Normal Distributions

Exercise 4: Use Empirical Rule

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The playing life of a Sunshine radio is normally distributed with a mean of 600 hours and a standard deviation of 100 hours. Use the empirical rule to compute the probabilities that a randomly selected radio will last as specified:Life of Randomly Selected Radio

Probability Expression Probability Calculation

Between 600 and 700 hours

½ of 68% = 34%

Between 400 and 500 hours

13.5%

Greater than 700 hours

13.5% + 2.35% = 15.85%

Page 19: Normal Distributions

The annual wheat yield per acre on a farm is normally distributed with a mean of 35 bushels and a standard deviation of 8 bushels. Sketch a normal curve and shade in the area that represents the probability that an acre will yield between 19 and 35 bushels.

Exercise 5: Use Empirical Rule

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Page 20: Normal Distributions

= Exercise 5: Use Empirical Rule

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Page 21: Normal Distributions

Section 6.1 Summary

• Graph a normal curve and summarize its important properties

• Apply the empirical rule to solve real-world problems

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Page 22: Normal Distributions

Section 6.2

Areas Under the Standard Normal Distribution

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Page 23: Normal Distributions

Section 6.2 Objectives

• Convert raw data to z scores• Convert z scores to raw data• Graph the standard normal distribution• Find areas under the standard normal curve

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Page 24: Normal Distributions

The Standard Normal Distribution

Standard normal distribution • A normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard

deviation of 1.

–3 1–2 –1 0 2 3

z

Area = 1

z Value Mean

Standard deviation x

• Any x-value can be transformed into a z-score by using the formula

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Page 25: Normal Distributions

z scores

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Page 26: Normal Distributions

The Standard Normal Distribution

• z scores also have a normal distribution µ = 0 σ = 1

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The Standard Normal Distribution

• If each data value of a normally distributed random variable x is transformed into a z-score, the result will be the standard normal distribution.

Normal Distribution

x

σ

0

σ 1

z

Standard Normal Distribution

• Use the Standard Normal Table to find the cumulative area under the standard normal curve.

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Page 28: Normal Distributions

Properties of the Standard Normal Distribution

1. The cumulative area is close to 0 for z-scores close to z = –3.49.

2. The cumulative area increases as the z-scores increase.

z = –3.49

Area is close to 0

z

–3 1–2 –1 0 2 3

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Page 29: Normal Distributions

z = 3.49

Area is close to 1

Properties of the Standard Normal Distribution

3. The cumulative area for z = 0 is 0.5000.4. The cumulative area is close to 1 for z-scores close

to z = 3.49.

Area is 0.5000z = 0

z

–3 1–2 –1 0 2 3

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Page 30: Normal Distributions

Standard Normal Table – Appendix II, Table 5 – Page A22

Table gives the cumulative area for a given z value.• When calculating a z Score, round to 2 decimal

places.• If a z-score is halfway between two values in the

table, round to 3 decimal places• For a z-score less than -3.49, use 0.0000 to

approximate the area.• For a z-score greater than 3.49, use 1.0000 to

approximate the area.

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Area to the Left of a Given z-score

Page 32: Normal Distributions

Area to the Right of a Given z-score

Page 33: Normal Distributions

Area Between Two z-scores

Page 34: Normal Distributions

Exercise 1a: Using The Standard Normal Table

Find the cumulative area that corresponds to a z-score of 1.15.

The area to the left of z = 1.15 is 0.8749.Move across the row to the column under 0.05

Solution:Find 1.1 in the left hand column.

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Page 35: Normal Distributions

Exercise 1b: Using The Standard Normal Table

Find the cumulative area that corresponds to a z-score of –0.24.

Solution:Find –0.2 in the left hand column.

The area to the left of z = –0.24 is 0.4052.© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 35 of 105

Move across the row to the column under 0.04

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Exercise 1c: Finding Area Under the Standard Normal Curve

Find the area under the standard normal curve to the left of z = –0.99.

From the Standard Normal Table, the area is equal to 0.1611.

–0.99 0z

0.1611

Solution:

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Page 37: Normal Distributions

Exercise 1d: Finding Area Under the Standard Normal Curve

Find the area under the standard normal curve to the right of z = 1.06.

From the Standard Normal Table, the area is equal to 0.1446.

1 – 0.8554 = 0.1446

1.060z

Solution:

0.8554

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Page 38: Normal Distributions

Find the area under the standard normal curve between z = –1.5 and z = 1.25.

Exercise 1e: Finding Area Under the Standard Normal Curve

From the Standard Normal Table, the area is equal to 0.8276.

1.250z

–1.50

0.89440.0668

Solution:0.8944 – 0.0668 = 0.8276

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Page 39: Normal Distributions

Using Technology to find Normal Probabilities

Must specify the mean and standard deviation of the population, and the x-value(s) that determine the interval.

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Using Technology to find Normal Probabilities

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Page 41: Normal Distributions

Re-compute Exercise 1 (parts a-e) using the normalcdf function on the TI-84 calculator.

Exercise 2: Finding Area Under the Standard Normal Curve

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  Description Cumulative Area

a) Find the cumulative area that corresponds to a z-score of 1.15.

0.8749

b) Find the cumulative area that corresponds to a z-score of -0.24.

0.4052

c) Find the cumulative area that corresponds to a z-score of -0.99.

0.1611

d) Find the cumulative area to the right of z=1.06

1 – 0.8554 = 0.1446

e) Find the area under the standard normal curve between z = –1.5 and z = 1.25.

0.8944 – 0.0668 = 0.8276

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Suppose Tina and Jack are in two different sections of the same course and they recently took midterms. Tina’s class average was 64 (with S.D.=3) and she got a 74. Jack’s class average was 72 (with S.D.=5) and he got an 82. Assuming that all scores are normally distributed, who did better relative to the class?  • Interpretive Statement: Although each score was 10

points above the average, Tina’s score was far better with respect to the other students in her section.

Exercise 3: Standardize Data

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Page 43: Normal Distributions

A pizza parlor chain claims a large pizza has 8 oz. of cheese with a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. An inspector ordered a pizza and found it only had 6.9 oz. of cheese. Franchisee’s can lose their store if they make pizzas with 3 standard deviations (or more) of cheese below the mean. Assume the distribution of weights is normally distributed.

Exercise 4: Standardize Data

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Page 44: Normal Distributions

Exercise 4 (contd.): Standardize Data

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a) Find the z-score for x = 6.9 oz. of cheese.b) Is the franchisee in danger of losing its store? Why?c) Find the minimum amount of cheese a franchisee can put on a

large pizza so it is not in danger of losing its store. b) No.

𝜇=8 ,𝜎=0.5

Page 45: Normal Distributions

Practice #1: Area Under Standard Normal Curve

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Practice #1:Find the area under the standard normal curve

Lower Upper Area Type

Bound BoundLeft Tail

Right Tail

Between Bounds

1) -3 3    0.99732) 1  0.1587 3) 0 2.53    0.49434)   2.53  0.0057 5) -2.34  0.0096   6) -2 2    0.9545

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Finding Areas Under The Normal Curve

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The probability that z equals a certain number is always 0.P(z = a) = 0

Therefore, < and ≤ can be used interchangeably. Similarly, > and ≥ can be used interchangeably. P(z < b) = P(z ≤ b)P(z > c) = P(z ≥ c)

Page 47: Normal Distributions

Section 6.2 Summary

• Converted raw data to z scores• Converted z scores to raw data• Graphed the standard normal distribution• Found areas under the standard normal curve

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Page 48: Normal Distributions

Section 6.3

Areas Under Any Normal Curve

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Page 49: Normal Distributions

Section 6.3 Objectives

• Find probabilities for “standardized events”• Find a z score from a given normal probability

(inverse normal)• Use the inverse normal function to find guarantee

problems

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Page 50: Normal Distributions

Probability and Normal Distributions

If a random variable x is normally distributed, you can find the probability that x will fall in a given interval by calculating the area under the normal curve for that interval.

P(x < 600) = Area μ = 500σ = 100

600μ = 500x

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Page 51: Normal Distributions

Probability and Normal Distributions

P(x < 600) = P(z < 1)

Normal Distribution

600μ =500

P(x < 600)

μ = 500 σ = 100

x

Standard Normal Distribution

600 500 1100

xz

1μ = 0

μ = 0 σ = 1

z

P(z < 1)

Same Area

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Page 52: Normal Distributions

Exercise 1: Finding Probabilities for Normal Distributions

A survey indicates that people use their cellular phones an average of 1.5 years before buying a new one. The standard deviation is 0.25 year. A cellular phone user is selected at random. Find the probability that the user will use their current phone for less than 1 year before buying a new one. Assume that the variable x is normally distributed. (Source: Fonebak)

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Page 53: Normal Distributions

Solution: Finding Probabilities for Normal Distributions

P(x < 1) = P(z < -2.00) = 0.0228

Normal Distribution

1 1.5

P(x < 1)

μ = 1.5 σ = 0.25

x

1 1.5 20.25

xz

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Standard Normal Distribution

–2 0

μ = 0 σ = 1

z

P(z < –2)

0.0228

Page 54: Normal Distributions

Exercise 2: Finding Probabilities for Normal Distributions

A survey indicates that for each trip to the supermarket, a shopper spends an average of 45 minutes with a standard deviation of 12 minutes in the store. The length of time spent in the store is normally distributed and is represented by the variable x. A shopper enters the store. Find the probability that the shopper will be in the store for between 24 and 54 minutes.

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Page 55: Normal Distributions

Solution: Finding Probabilities for Normal Distributions

P(24 < x < 54) = P(–1.75 < z < 0.75) = 0.7734 – 0.0401 = 0.7333

z1

x

24 4512

1.75

24 45

P(24 < x < 54)

x

Normal Distribution μ = 45 σ = 12

0.0401

54

z2

x

54 4512

0.75

–1.75z

Standard Normal Distribution μ = 0 σ = 1

0

P(–1.75 < z < 0.75)

0.75

0.7734

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Page 56: Normal Distributions

Exercise 3: Finding Probabilities for Normal Distributions

If 200 shoppers enter the store, how many shoppers would you expect to be in the store between 24 and 54 minutes?

Solution:Recall P(24 < x < 54) = 0.7333

200(0.7333) =146.66 (or about 147) shoppers

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Page 57: Normal Distributions

Exercise 4: Finding Probabilities for Normal Distributions

Find the probability that the shopper will be in the store more than 39 minutes. (Recall μ = 45 minutes and σ = 12 minutes)

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Page 58: Normal Distributions

Solution: Finding Probabilities for Normal Distributions

P(x > 39) = P(z > –0.50) = 1– 0.3085 = 0.6915

z x

39 45

12 0.50

39 45

P(x > 39)

x

Normal Distribution μ = 45 σ = 12

Standard Normal Distribution μ = 0 σ = 1

0.3085

0

P(z > –0.50)

z

–0.50

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Page 59: Normal Distributions

Exercise 5: Finding Probabilities for Normal Distributions

If 200 shoppers enter the store, how many shoppers would you expect to be in the store more than 39 minutes?

Solution:Recall P(x > 39) = 0.6915

200(0.6915) =138.3 (or about 138) shoppers

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Page 60: Normal Distributions

Using Technology to find Normal Probabilities

Must specify the mean and standard deviation of the population, and the x-value(s) that determine the interval.

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Page 61: Normal Distributions

61

Example: Using Technology to find a Proportion in Normal Distribution

Larson/Farber 5th ed

A certain set of normally distributed exam scores as a mean of 74 with a standard deviation of 5. What is the proportion of scores less than 82?

Standard Normal tables tell you the proportion of data that is below a given z-score in a normally distributed population.

Page 62: Normal Distributions

Exercise 6: Finding Probabilities for Normal Distributions

If 200 shoppers enter the store, how many shoppers would you expect to be in the store more than 39 minutes? Use the TI-84 calculator.

Solution:P(x > 39) = normalcdf(-0.50,1E+99) = 0.6915 200(0.6915) =138.3 (or about 138) shoppers

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Page 63: Normal Distributions

Section 6.3

Inverse Normal Lookups

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Page 64: Normal Distributions

Find Values, Given a Probability

• In the previous section, we were given a normally distributed random variable x and we were asked to find a probability.

• In this section, we will be given a probability and we will be asked to find the value of the random variable x.

x z probability

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Page 65: Normal Distributions

Find Values, Given a Probability

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Page 66: Normal Distributions

Exercise 1: Finding a z-Score Given an Area

Find the z-score that corresponds to a cumulative area of 0.3632.

z 0z

0.3632

Solution:

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Page 67: Normal Distributions

Solution: Finding a z-Score Given an Area

• Locate 0.3632 in the body of the Standard Normal Table.

• The values at the beginning of the corresponding row and at the top of the column give the z-score.

The z-score is –0.35.

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Page 68: Normal Distributions

Inverse Normal Lookup viaTI-84

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Page 69: Normal Distributions

TI-84 Solution: Finding a z-Score

z = invNorm(0.3632) = -0.35.

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z 0z

0.3632

Page 70: Normal Distributions

Exercise 2: Finding a z-Score Given a Right Tail Area

Find the z-score that has 10.75% of the distribution’s area to its right.

z0z

0.1075

Solution:

1 – 0.1075 = 0.8925

Because the area to the right is 0.1075, the cumulative area is 0.8925.

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Page 71: Normal Distributions

Exercise 2: Finding a z-Score Given a Right Tail Area

• Locate 0.8925 in the body of the Standard Normal Table.

• The values at the beginning of the corresponding row and at the top of the column give the z-score.

The z-score is 1.24.

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Page 72: Normal Distributions

Exercise 3: Finding a z-Score Given a Left Tail Area via TI-84

Find the z-score that corresponds to a cumulative area of 0.3632.

z 0z

0.3632

Solution: z = invNorm(0.3632) = -0.35.

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Page 73: Normal Distributions

Exercise 4: Finding a z-Score Given a Percentile

Find the z-score that corresponds to P5.Solution:The z-score that corresponds to P5 is the same z-score that corresponds to an area of 0.05.

The areas closest to 0.05 in the table are 0.0495 (z = –1.65) and 0.0505 (z = –1.64). Because 0.05 is halfway between the two areas in the table, use the z-score that is halfway between –1.64 and –1.65. The z-score is –1.645.

z 0z

0.05

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Page 74: Normal Distributions

Exercise 5: Find z Scores, Given Center Area

Find the z value such that 90% of the area under the standard normal curve lies between –z and z.

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Page 75: Normal Distributions

Solution: Find z Scores given Center Area

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Exercise 5: Find z Scores given Center Area

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Looking in Table 5, we see that 0.0500 lies exactly between areas 0.0495 and 0.0505. The halfway value between z=1.65 and z=1.64 is z=1.645. Therefore, we conclude that 90% of the area under the standard normal curve lies between the z values -1.645 and 1.645.

Page 77: Normal Distributions

Transforming a z-Score to an x-Score

To transform a standard z-score to a data value x in a given population, use the formula

x = μ + zσ

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Page 78: Normal Distributions

Exercise 6: Finding an x-ValueA veterinarian records the weights of cats treated at a clinic. The weights are normally distributed, with a mean of 9 pounds and a standard deviation of 2 pounds. Find the weights x corresponding to z-scores of 1.96, –0.44, and 0.Solution: Use the formula x = μ + zσ

z = 1.96: x = 9 + 1.96(2) = 12.92 pounds

z = –0.44: x = 9 + (–0.44)(2) = 8.12 pounds

z = 0: x = 9 + (0)(2) = 9 poundsNotice 12.92 pounds is above the mean, 8.12 pounds is below the mean, and 9 pounds is equal to the mean.

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Page 79: Normal Distributions

Exercise 7: Finding a Specific Data ValueScores for the California Peace Officer Standards and Training test are normally distributed, with a mean of 50 and a standard deviation of 10. An agency will only hire applicants with scores in the top 10%. What is the lowest score you can earn and still be eligible to be hired by the agency?Solution:

An exam score in the top 10% is any score above the 90th percentile. Find the z-score that corresponds to a cumulative area of 0.90.

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Page 80: Normal Distributions

Solution: Finding a Specific Data ValueFrom the Standard Normal Table, the area closest to 0.9 is 0.8997. So the z-score that corresponds to an area of 0.9 is z = 1.28.

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Page 81: Normal Distributions

Solution: Finding a Specific Data Value

Using the equation x = μ + zσ

x = 50 + 1.28(10) = 62.8

The lowest score you can earn and still be eligible to be hired by the agency is about 63.

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Page 82: Normal Distributions

Solution via TI-84

x = invNorm(0.90,50,10) = 62.8

The lowest score you can earn and still be eligible to be hired by the agency is about 63.

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Page 83: Normal Distributions

Exercise 8: Finding a Specific Data ValueMagic Video Games Inc. sells expensive computer games and wants to advertise an impressive, full-refund warranty period. It has found that the mean life for its’ computer games is 30 months with a standard deviation of 4 months. If the life spans of the computer games are normally distributed, how long of a warranty period (to the nearest month) can be offered so that the company will not have to refund the price of more than 7% of the computer games?

:

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Page 84: Normal Distributions

Exercise 8: Finding a Specific Data ValueMagic Video Games Inc. sells expensive computer games and wants to advertise an impressive, full-refund warranty period. It has found that the mean life for its’ computer games is 30 months with a standard deviation of 4 months. If the life spans of the computer games are normally distributed, how long of a warranty period (to the nearest month) can be offered so that the company will not have to refund the price of more than 7% of the computer games?

:

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Page 85: Normal Distributions

Exercise 8: Finding a Specific Data Value

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Interpretive Statement: The warranty period should be 24 months if the company does not want to refund the price of more than 7% of the games.

Page 86: Normal Distributions

Exercise 8: Finding a Specific Data Value

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Interpretive Statement: The warranty period should be 24 months if the company does not want to refund the price of more than 7% of the games.

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Practice #2: Inverse Normal Lookups

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.

      Area Left TailRight Tail Center Area  

  µ σ Components Area Area A (1-A)/2 var value valuea) 0.0 1.0 0.50 0.32 0.82      a = 0.92 b) 0.0 1.0        0.94 0.03a = -1.88 c) 90.0 7.0        0.82 0.09z = -1.34 1.34

  90.0 7.0            bL 80.61 

  90.0 7.0            bR   99.39d) 45.0 5.0        0.88 0.06z = -1.55 1.55

  45.0 5.0          xL 37.23 

  45.0 5.0            xR   52.77  45.0 5.0            b = 7.77 

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Section 6.3 Summary

• Found probabilities for “standardized events”• Found a z score from a given normal probability

(inverse normal)• Used the inverse normal function to solve guarantee

problems

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Page 89: Normal Distributions

Section 6.4

Normal Approximations to Binomial Distributions

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Page 90: Normal Distributions

Section 6.4 Objectives

• Determine when the normal distribution can approximate the binomial distribution

• Find the continuity correction• Use the normal distribution to approximate binomial

probabilities

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Page 91: Normal Distributions

Normal Approximation to the Binomial

Page 92: Normal Distributions

Normal Approximation to a Binomial• Binomial distribution: p = 0.25

• As n increases the histogram approaches a normal curve.© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 92 of 105

Page 93: Normal Distributions

1. Sixty-two percent of adults in the U.S. have an HDTV in their home. You randomly select 45 adults in the U.S. and ask them if they have an HDTV in their home.

Example: Approximating the Binomial

Decide whether you can use the normal distribution to approximate x, the number of people who reply yes. If you can, find the mean and standard deviation.

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Page 94: Normal Distributions

Solution: Approximating the Binomial

• You can use the normal approximationn = 45, p = 0.62, q = 0.38

np = (45)(0.62) = 27.9nq = (45)(0.38) = 17.1

• Mean: μ = np = 27.9• Standard Deviation: 45 0.62 0.38 3.26 σ npq

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Page 95: Normal Distributions

2. Twelve percent of adults in the U.S. who do not have an HDTV in their home are planning to purchase one in the next two years. You randomly select 30 adults in the U.S. who do not have an HDTV and ask them if they are planning to purchase one in the next two years.

Example: Approximating the Binomial

Decide whether you can use the normal distribution to approximate x, the number of people who reply yes. If you can, find the mean and standard deviation.

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Page 96: Normal Distributions

Solution: Approximating the Binomial

• You cannot use the normal approximationn = 30, p = 0.12, q = 0.88

np = (30)(0.12) = 3.6nq = (30)(0.88) = 26.4

• Because np < 5, you cannot use the normal distribution to approximate the distribution of x.

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Page 97: Normal Distributions

Correction for Continuity

• The binomial distribution is discrete and can be represented by a probability histogram.

• To calculate exact binomial probabilities, the binomial formula is used for each value of x and the results are added.

• Geometrically this corresponds to adding the areas of bars in the probability histogram.

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Page 98: Normal Distributions

Correction for Continuity• When you use a continuous normal distribution to

approximate a binomial probability, you need to move 0.5 unit to the left and right of the midpoint to include all possible x-values in the interval (continuity correction).

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Exact binomial probability

P(r = c) P(c – 0.5 < x < c + 0.5)

c c – 0.5 c c + 0.5

Normal approximation

Page 99: Normal Distributions

Correction for Continuity

Page 100: Normal Distributions

Exercise 1: Using a Correction for Continuity

Use a continuity correction to convert the binomial interval to a normal distribution interval.

1. The probability of getting between 270 and 310 successes, inclusive.

Solution:• The discrete midpoint values are 270, 271, … 310• The corresponding interval for the continuous normal

distribution is269.5 < x < 310.5

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Page 101: Normal Distributions

Exercise 2: Using a Correction for Continuity

Use a continuity correction to convert the binomial interval to a normal distribution interval.

2. The probability of getting at least 158 successes.

Solution:• The discrete midpoint values are 158, 159, 160 …. • The corresponding interval for the continuous normal

distribution is x 157.5

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Page 102: Normal Distributions

Exercise 3: Using a Correction for Continuity

Use a continuity correction to convert the binomial interval to a normal distribution interval.

3. The probability of getting fewer than 63 successes.

Solution:• The discrete midpoint values are …, 60, 61, 62.• The corresponding interval for the continuous normal

distribution is x < 62.5

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Page 103: Normal Distributions

Using the Normal Distribution to Approximate Binomial Probabilities

1. Verify that the binomial distribution applies.

2. Determine if you can use the normal distribution to approximate x, the binomial variable.

3. Find the mean µ and standard deviation σ for the distribution.

npq np

Is np > 5?Is nq > 5?

Specify n, p, and q. In Words In Symbols

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Page 104: Normal Distributions

Using the Normal Distribution to Approximate Binomial Probabilities

4. Apply the appropriate continuity correction. Shade the corresponding area under the normal curve.

5. Find the correspondingz-score(s).

6. Find the probability.

xz

Add or subtract 0.5 from endpoints.

Use the Standard Normal Table.

In Words In Symbols

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Page 105: Normal Distributions

Exercise 4: Approximating a Binomial Probability

Sixty-two percent of adults in the U.S. have an HDTV in their home. You randomly select 45 adults in the U.S. and ask them if they have an HDTV in their home. What is the probability that fewer than 20 of them respond yes? (Source: Opinion Research Corporation)

Solution:• Can use the normal approximation (see slide 91) μ = 45 (0.62) = 27.9 450.620.38 3.26

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Page 106: Normal Distributions

Solution: Approximating a Binomial Probability

z x

19.5 27.9

3.26 2.58

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Normal Distribution μ = 27.9 σ ≈ 3.26

0.0049–2.58 μ = 0

P(z < –2.58)

Standard Normalμ = 0 σ = 1

z

Page 107: Normal Distributions

Exercise 5: Approximating a Binomial Probability

A survey reports that 62% of Internet users use Google Chrome as their browser. You randomly select 150 Internet users and ask them whether they use Chrome as their browser. What is the probability that exactly 96 will say yes?

Solution:• Can use the normal approximation np = 150∙0.62 = 93 > 5 nq = 150∙0.38 = 57 > 5

150 0.62 0.38 5.94 σ μ = 150∙0.62 = 93

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Page 108: Normal Distributions

Solution: Approximating a Binomial Probability

z1

x

95.5 935.94

0.42

0.6628 z2

x

96.5 935.94

0.59

0.59μ = 0

P(0.42 < z < 0.59)

Standard Normalμ = 0 σ = 1

z

0.42

0.7224

P(0.42 < z < 0.59) = 0.7224 – 0.6628 = 0.0596© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 108 of 105

Normal Distribution μ = 27.9 σ = 3.26

Page 109: Normal Distributions

The owner of a new apartment building needs to have 25 new water heaters installed. Assume the probability that a water heater will last 10 years is 0.25. a) What is the probability that 8 or more will last at

least 10 years? Use the binomial distributionb) Can the binomial probability distribution be

approximated by a normal distribution? Explain.c) If so, use a normal distribution to approximate the

binomial distributiond) Find the error between the two calculations.

Exercise 6: Approximating a Binomial Probability

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Page 110: Normal Distributions

Exercise 6: Approximating a Binomial Probability

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𝑃 (𝑟 ≥ 8 )=𝑃 (8 ≤𝑟 )=𝑃 (7.5 ≤𝑥 )

Page 111: Normal Distributions

• What is the probability that 8 or more will last at least 10 years? Use the binomial distribution.

• Can the binomial probability distribution be approximated by a normal distribution? Explain.

• Yes.

Exercise 6: Approximating a Binomial Probability

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c) If so, use a normal distribution to approximate the binomial distribution

0.58 z ) = normalcdf(0.58, 1E+99) d) Find the error between the two calculations.0.2810 – 0.2735 = 0.0075. The normal approximation to the binomial is quite good.

Exercise 6: Approximating a Binomial Probability

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Page 113: Normal Distributions

Section 6.4 Summary

• Determined when the normal distribution can approximate the binomial distribution

• Found the continuity correction• Used the normal distribution to approximate binomial

probabilities

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