Nordic meeting for trade in goods and services 16-18 September, Thorshavn, Far Oe Ger Stam 28th of August 2014 Transition to BPM6: the Dutch case
Dec 17, 2015
Nordic meeting for trade in goods and services
16-18 September, Thorshavn, Far Oe
Ger Stam
28th of August 2014
Transition to BPM6:
the Dutch case
Outline
BPM6 transition SN
– Who involved, how organized?
– ITGS issues: relative modest change
– ITSS issues: drastic change‐ Improved and altered processes in-, through- and
output (big bang)
– Actual issues
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Who involved, how organized?
– Steering group National accounts, Central Bank, ITGS and ITSS: ESA2010 & BPM6, resulting in co-operation on various data processes
– Revision NA with new basic year 2010
– Project ITGS and ITSS (organisationally closer related within SN)
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Who involved, how organized?
– Project ITSS & ITGS‐ Comply with all relevant regulations for International
Trade in Services (ITS) and International Trade in Goods (ITG)
‐ Provide all stakeholders with the necessary information
‐ Methodological improvements
‐ ESA2010 already implemented in 2011 for the Structural Business Surveys and Balance-sheet Survey: consistency aimed with ITGS/ITSS for large enterprises
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ITGS issues
Data collection ITGS not fundamentally changed:– still based upon customs information and own
questionnaire on goods crossing the border
ESA2010/BPM6: corrections necessary for:• goods crossing the border but no economic
ownership transfer from/to NL• goods not crossing the border but economic
ownership transfer from/to NL
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ITGS issues
BPM6 urges for economic in stead of juridical ownership:
– Goods sent abroad for processing ‐ excluded from im- and exports ITGS
– Production Abroad– production under foreign enterprise control in NL is
not trade
– Exports of goods previously imported / goods in quasi-transit
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ITGS issues
Altered ITGS data processes:
– Goods procured in ports by carriers• Import newly estimated• Improved estimation method for export
– Merchanting (incl. via customs warehouse )• Part of ITGS now• Data collection by ITSS
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ITSS issues
Altered in-, through- and output processes:
– Lot of new and changed ITSS items in BPM6 methodology
– New survey sampling design SME (use of VAT-registration)
– New questionnaire (design)– Abolishment X12-ARIMA estimations: replaced by
own data collection or applying new external sources
– Surveys of the Dutch Central Bank (SPE and MFI data)
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ITSS issues
Altered in-, through- and output processes:
– Travel adapted for business travel, border & seasonal workers, health & education related travel etc.
– CIF/FOB correction for ITGS maintained, but new approach ITSS for ‘FIT adjustment’ (Freight Insurance and Transport Adjustment)
– Amendment ICT systems– New data dissemination scheme
ITSS issues: new & changed service items
Changed or new ITSS items in BPM6 (some
examples)
– New classification for services of manufacturing services and maintenance & repair
– The sales of research and development such as patents and copyrights: treated now as produced assets and included in services.
– Financial services:‐ ‘Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly
Measured’ (FISIM) to be recorded as a service. Transactions between banks are removed, so lower values
than before and ‘Buying and selling spreads’ added.
– ‘Services between affiliated enterprises, n.i.e.’ removed
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Checking source data
Population dataAnnual ITS Business Register process
Quarterly Streamlined ITS process
ITS- loading and roughly checking
Imputation
Weighing and additional
estimation SME
Detailing
Automatic process
Primary source data LE and SME
Secondary source data
Macro-editing (tool: Macroview)
ITS– loading and basic compilation
ProcessOutput
Quarterly and annual ITS Output process
Direct data collection SN
External sources
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ITSS issues ITS: questionnaires
Changed questionnaire design :LE and SME:
– Use 6-digit Eurostat codes for services– Service category descriptions– Switching board old/new services (for transition)– Questionnaire design SME – Communication
SPE and MFI:– CB: adaption of questionnaires and explanations,
including delineation of the enterprise population with SN
ITSS issues: SME sample design
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Design of population and sample 2014:
– Based upon the GBR: 1.4 mln enterprises– Gross selection 261.000 enterprises
detected from various sources (most important are):
• VAT services and merchanting 2013 q1-3 en 2012 q4 (in total 239.000 enterprises!)
• International payments data 2013 q1-3 and 2012 q4• Positive response SME from year 2013 q 1-3 en 2012
q4
ITSS issues: SME sample design
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Design of population and sample 2014:
– Reduction of the gross selection by excluding probably fractional ITS-traders using various criteria (80% of the enterprises and only 6% of im- en export)
– Net population frame: 51 700 enterprises probably active in ITS (= sample frame)
ITSS issues: SME sample design ITSS
Design of population and sample 2014:
– Reduced number of 39 strata by aggregated combination:
‐ SIC code of enterprise (19 groups) divided into 3 groups: • Integral part of largest expected ITSS sized
enterprises (≥ 10 mln. € im ports + exports, based upon VAT data and –if present- ITSS data or otherwise selected)
• Large expected ITSS sized enterprises (≥ 1 mln. € im ports + exports, based upon VAT data and –if present- ITSS data )
• Other, expected smaller ITSS sized enterprises15
ITSS issues: SME sample design ITSS
Design of population and sample 2014:
– Allocation SME (how many units are how sampled):
‐ 5 000 enterprises sampled (by use of Neyman allocation) out of almost 52 000 enterprises (= net population)
‐ mean sample ratio is 1 out of 10 enterprises‐ varies over strata from 1:1 (complete
covered stratum) to 1: 47 (stratum ‘Trade (SIC code), small as for ITSS') 16
ITSS issues: synthetic estimations diminished
Abolition ITSS X12-Arima estimations (time series estimations)
– Financial services– Insurance services– Trade related services– Government services– Merchanting (now positive & negative exports of goods)
– Major change for insurances services. Mix of SN & CB data of insurance companies for exports of all kinds of insurances.
– Financial services will be mix of direct SN/CB data collection. Partly new synthetic estimation for ‘Buying & selling spreads’. 17
ITSS issues: IT systems adapted
Three IT systems adapted (input,
throughput, analysis)
– Design and building changes in the system, by special (SN) IT department and related ITS business workers
– Adjustment of the analysis tool Macro-view queries to the new classification.
– Conversion of historical data in throughput system (2009-2013) needed, esp. for editing purposes. 18
Actual issues
– Further efforts needed for coherence between related ITGS and ITSS items
– New levels of outcomes ITSS
– Back-casting and publication ITSSPublication of NA, BoP, ITGS and ITSS on different moments and with different formats and content
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