Noi Bai-Lao Cai Highway Technical Assistance Project

Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report Project Number: TA 7281-VIE November 2009

Socialist Republic of Viet Nam: Noi Bai-Lao Cai Highway Technical Assistance Project Economic and Financial Reassessment of the Greater

Mekong Subregion: Kunming - Hai Phong Transport

Corridor - Noi Bai - Lao Cai Highway Project Prepared by: ORIENTAL CONSULTANTS. Co. LTD For: ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK The report is a document of the borrower. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the ADB Board of Directors, Management, or staff, and may be preliminary in nature.

TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE CONSULTANT’S REPORT

TA No. 7281-VIE: Economic and Financial Reassessment of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS): Kunming - Hai Phong Transport Corridor - Noi Bai - Lao Cai Highway Project

Economic and Financial Reassessment of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS): - i - Kunming - Hai Phong Transport Corridor - Noi Bai - Lao Cai Highway Project ADB TA No. 7281-VIE

TABLE OF CONTENTS Page

1. INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................................1 1.1 Background .........................................................................................................................1 1.2 Project Appreciation ............................................................................................................1

1.2.1 Summary Background Information..................................................................................1 1.3 Project Objectives ...............................................................................................................3 1.4 Scope of Work.....................................................................................................................3 1.5 Approach and Methodology ................................................................................................4 1.6 Methodology........................................................................................................................4

2. COMPONENT 1 - UPDATE OF THE PROJECT COST ESTIMATE ........................................10 2.1 General .............................................................................................................................10 2.2 Methodology of Cost Reassessment.................................................................................11 2.3 Cost Increase ....................................................................................................................11 2.4 Tendency of Volume Increase ...........................................................................................13

2.4.1 Earthwork ......................................................................................................................13 2.4.2 Pavement ......................................................................................................................14 2.4.3 Traffic safety..................................................................................................................17 2.4.4 Bridge............................................................................................................................18 2.4.5 Tunnels .........................................................................................................................20 2.4.6 Local Underpass (Box)..................................................................................................20

2.5 Tendency of Price Escalation ............................................................................................26 2.5.1 Earthwork ......................................................................................................................26 2.5.2 Pavement ......................................................................................................................27 2.5.3 Traffic safety..................................................................................................................27 2.5.4 Bridge............................................................................................................................27 2.5.5 Tunnel ...........................................................................................................................27 2.5.6 Local Underpass ...........................................................................................................27

2.6 Tendency of Construction Cost Increase...........................................................................37 2.7 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................51

3. COMPONENT 2 - TRANSPORT DEMAND FORECAST .........................................................52 3.1 Overview of Methodology..................................................................................................52 3.2 Traffic Surveys and their Analyses ....................................................................................53 3.3 Structure and Contents of the Transport Model.................................................................56 3.4 Socio Economic Forecasts................................................................................................65 3.5 Base Year Validation .........................................................................................................65 3.6 Transport Demand Forecasts............................................................................................66

4. COMPONENT 3 - ECONOMIC EVALUATION .........................................................................72 4.1 General Approach .............................................................................................................72 4.2 Basis for Evaluation ..........................................................................................................73 4.3 Evaluation Parameters ......................................................................................................74 4.4 Prices ................................................................................................................................75 4.5 Costs .................................................................................................................................77

4.5.1 Construction Costs........................................................................................................77 4.5.2 Operating and Maintenance Costs................................................................................77 4.5.3 Land and Resettlement Costs .......................................................................................78

4.6 Source of Benefits .............................................................................................................79 4.6.1 Vehicle Operating Costs ...............................................................................................79 4.6.2 Time Savings ................................................................................................................81 4.6.3 Residual Values ............................................................................................................81



Economic and Financial Reassessment of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS): - ii - Kunming - Hai Phong Transport Corridor - Noi Bai - Lao Cai Highway Project ADB TA No. 7281-VIE

4.7 Evaluation Process............................................................................................................82 4.7.1 Definition of Base Case.................................................................................................82 4.7.2 Use of the Traffic Assignment Model ............................................................................82 4.7.3 Types of Traffic .............................................................................................................83

4.8 Results ..............................................................................................................................84 4.8.1 Overall Results..............................................................................................................84 4.8.2 Sensitivity Tests ............................................................................................................85

5. COMPONENT 4 - FINANCIAL EVALUATION .........................................................................90 5.1 General .............................................................................................................................90 5.2 Project Cost.......................................................................................................................90

5.2.1 Construction cost ..........................................................................................................90 5.2.2 O/M costs......................................................................................................................91 5.2.3 Depreciation ..................................................................................................................91 5.2.4 VEC’s corporate tax ......................................................................................................91 5.2.5 Exchange rate ...............................................................................................................92

5.3 Financing Plan ..................................................................................................................92 5.4 Revenues ..........................................................................................................................93 5.5 Background on Toll Rate ...................................................................................................93

5.5.1 Existing Toll Roads .......................................................................................................93 5.5.2 Other Studies ................................................................................................................93 5.5.3 Regulations of Tolls.......................................................................................................94 5.5.4 Toll Rates in China........................................................................................................94

5.6 Results of Financial Analysis.............................................................................................94 5.6.1 Total Project Cost including FCDD................................................................................94 5.6.2 Financial Analysis Results.............................................................................................95

5.7 Recommended Toll Rate ...................................................................................................98 5.8 Financial Internal rate of Return (FIRR) ............................................................................98

5.8.1 Estimation of FIRR ........................................................................................................98 5.8.2 Estimation of WACC (Weighted Average Capital Cost) ................................................98 5.8.3 Sensitivity Test ..............................................................................................................99

6. COMPONENT 5 - FINANCIAL EVALUATION FOR VEC.......................................................107 6.1 Legal and Institutional Development Background of VEC...............................................107 6.2 Summary of Expressway Investment Plan 2008 to 2025 ................................................110 6.3 Basic Assumptions for Consolidated Institutional Financial Viability Analysis ................. 111 6.4 VEC`s Financial Position 2006 – 2008............................................................................117

6.4.1 VEC’s Income Statement ............................................................................................117 6.4.2 VEC’s Cash Flow Statement .......................................................................................117 6.4.3 VEC’s Balance Sheet..................................................................................................118

6.5 VEC Financial Viability Analysis 2008 to 2033 ................................................................119 6.6 Conclusions & Recommendations ..................................................................................125 APPENDIX 1 TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS .......................................................................... 128 APPENDIX 2 FINANCIAL REGULATIONS OF VIETNAM EXPRESSWAY CORPORATION.......... 130 APPENDIX 3 PRIME MINISTER’S DECISION ON PILOTING SOME MECHANISMS IN VEC....... 141 APPENDIX 4 CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS OF VEC 2008 – 2035........................ 144

APPENDIX 1 ROAD USER COSTS APPENDIX 2 WILLINGNESS-TO-PAY SURVEY APPENDIX 3 TOLL RATE SYSTEM



Economic and Financial Reassessment of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS): - iii - Kunming - Hai Phong Transport Corridor - Noi Bai - Lao Cai Highway Project ADB TA No. 7281-VIE

ACRONYMS

AADT annual average daily traffic ADB Asian Development Bank ADF Asian Development Fund AP affected person ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations AusAID Australian Agency for International Development BEDC BIDV Expressway Development Company BOT Build – Operate – Transfer CFD Caisse Française de Développement CIT Corporate income tax DFID Department for International Development DWT dead weight tonnage EA executing agency EIA environmental impact assessment EIRR economic internal rate of return EM ethnic minority group EMDP ethnic minority development plan EMP expressway master plan FDI foreign direct investment FIDIC International Federation of Consulting & Engineering FIRR financial internal rate of return GDP gross domestic product GMS Greater Mekong Sub Region GOV Government of Vietnam GRT gross registered tonnage HDI human development index HDM highway development and management (software) HH household HIV/AIDS human immunodeficiency virus/ acquired immune deficiency syndrome IA implementing agency IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction & Development ICD inland clearance/container depot IFC International Finance Corporation IP industrial park IT information technology JBIC Japan Bank for International Cooperation JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency KHTC Kunming-Haiphong Transport Corridor LOS level of service MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development MOET Ministry of Education and Training MOF Ministry of Finance MOI Ministry of Industry MOSTE Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment MOT Ministry of Transport MOU Memorandum of Understanding MPI Ministry of Planning and Investment NGO Non- governmental organization NH national highway NTSC National Transport Safety Committee O&M operation and maintenance



Economic and Financial Reassessment of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS): - iv - Kunming - Hai Phong Transport Corridor - Noi Bai - Lao Cai Highway Project ADB TA No. 7281-VIE

OCR Ordinary Capital Resources ODA official development assistance PC People’s Committee PCU passenger car unit PDOT Provincial Department of Transport PIU project implementation unit PMU Project Management Unit PPC Provincial People’s Committee PPMU Provincial Project Management Unit PPP private partnership PR provincial road PRC People’s Republic of China PSP private sector participation RMU road management unit ROW Right-of-way RP resettlement plan RRMU Regional Road Management Unit RTU Rural Transport Unit SDR special drawing rights SDZ special development zone SEIA summary environmental impact assessment SOE state owned enterprise TA technical assistance TEDI Transport Engineering Design Incorporated TEU Twenty-foot equivalent unit VAT value added tax VEC Vietnam Expressway Corporation VINAMARINE Vietnam National Maritime Bureau VIWA Vietnam Inland Waterway Authority VND Vietnam Dong VOC vehicle operating cost VRA Vietnam Road Administration VRC Vietnam Railways Corporation WACC weighted average cost of capital WB World Bank WTO World Trade Organization

Oriental Consultants

Economic and Financial Reassessment of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS): Page 1 Kunming - Hai Phong Transport Corridor - Noi Bai - Lao Cai Highway Project ADB TA No. 7281-VIE

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

1. This technical assistance (TA) has been prepared in response to ADB’s request for proposals for the Economic and Financial Reassessment of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS): Kunming-Hai Phong Transport Corridor -Noi Bai-Lao Cai Highway Project dated 14th August, 2009. It is a short study term for provision of technical assistance (TA) services for a reassessment of the financial and economic feasibility of the Noi Bai-Lao Cai Highway Project. The objective of the 3 month assignment is to examine whether the economic and financial indicators meet the requirements of ADB’s economic and financial policies.

2. The services require the input of 5 M/M of Vietnamese specialists who will be responsible for the engineering and the economic cost aspects of the study, and 9 M/M of international specialists who will be responsible for overall management of the study, and input on economic, operation, engineering & financial issues.

3. Oriental Consultants (OC) has extensive experience in Vietnam and in particular with reference to this project were the leading consultants for the earlier, Project Supervision Consulting Services Noi Bai-Lao Cai Highway Project.

4. The Project includes the evaluation of the implementation of 263km of 4-lane and 2-lane expressway. Essentially this is a review of the economic and financial feasibility as the cost estimates from project bids in October 2008 were higher by between 55% and 65% then the original project cost estimate in September 2007.

5. The team of Vietnamese consultants is considered to have full capability to undertake their assigned tasks. The international specialists have been selected for their knowledge of working with ADB safeguards department and economic and financial specialists as well in particular their familiarity with the project. OC is fully prepared to make available other international staff as required to provide technical support to the project to achieve the ADB objectives on schedule.

1.2 Project Appreciation

1.2.1 Summary Background Information

6. Viet Nam is one of the fastest growing economies in the world recording average annual GDP growth of about 7.5% over the last decade. Broad based and vigorous economic growth combined with Government targeted poverty reduction interventions has all helped reduce poverty.

7. Viet Nam’s transition from central planning to a socialist oriented market economic system has involved the liberalization of markets, recognition of private property rights and the gradual opening up of the economy to external markets for trade and investment. The structure of the economy is changing with most new jobs created by the business sector in existing and newly emerging urban areas and along key transport corridors.

8. This project forms an integral link in the Kunming-Haiphong Transport Corridor which connects Hanoi with the fast growing area of southern China. The earlier project estimated an economic growth of GDP in the Red River Delta Region centered on Hanoi at around 5.3% per annum over the next 15 years whilst the regional population was maintained growing only from 1.6 million to 1.7 million people in the same time period. Although economic growth has slowed in the present economic climate, there is no reason not to believe that this economic growth will not be sustained in the longer term.

9. Figure 1.1 shows the location of the proposed highway in the context of the Kunming-Haiphong Transport Corridor whilst the detailed alignment of the proposed highway adjacent to the Red River is presented in Figure 1.2.



Figure 1.1 Project within the Regional Context



Figure 1.2 Project Detail including Major Cities along the Alignment

1.3 Project Objectives

10. The project objectives are to prepare an appraisal review of the earlier feasibility study of Noi Bai-Lao Cai Highway Project. After the call for bid estimates, there was a concern as the bid estimates were 55% to 65% higher than the cost estimates in the earlier project. This has several impacts on the project including economic and financial returns as well as the amount of capital that is needed for the project.

11. The impact of the proposed project will be a reduction in the cost and travel times for the movement of passengers and goods between the Chinese border at Lao Cai and the Vietnamese capital of Hanoi.

12. The outcome of the project review will be a robust economic and financial feasibility that also address project risk and the source of any additional funds needed to achieve the project completion.

1.4 Scope of Work

13. The Consulting services under these project will include the following components:

(i) Update of the Project Cost Estimate. This component will address the differences between the cost estimates of the earlier project and the bid estimates.

(ii) Update of the Project Benefit Estimate. The key indicator in the update in the project benefits is the estimate traffic flow on the new Noi Bai-Lao Cai Highway. This will require a review of the inputs into the transport model of the earlier project in particular the socio economic forecasts.



(iii) Update of the Project Economic Feasibility. This will require the inputs from parts 1 and 2 of the scope of works. OC will then estimate the economic feasibility after a review of project economic benefits and costs

(iv) Update of the Project Financial Feasibility. This component will determine the project financial viability. It will also be linked in with any additional work in ‘Willingness to Pay” analysis.

(v) Update of VEC’s Financial Projections. This component will combine the financial feasibility component and the project costs to prepare VEC’s financial projections for the project.

1.5 Approach and Methodology

14. The Executing Agency for the TA will be Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Implementing Agency will be the Vietnam Expressway Corporation. The Consultant is currently working closely with these organizations on other projects and would continue the closest possible liaison for this Project.

15. The Consultant is aware that the key stakeholder in such an important project is VEC. The Consultant will ensure that the implementation of the Project is undertaken using participatory procedures to the maximum extent possible. This will necessitate close liaison between the Consultant, VEC and ADB.

1.6 Methodology

16. The Noi Bai-Lao Cai Highway Project is an important link in the Kunming-Hai Phong Transport Corridor. The project besides being an international link between China and Vietnam will also have significant on the communities along the Red River corridor. The connectivity of the communities such as Lao Cai, Yen Bai and Viet Tri with Hanoi and each other is improved significantly with project implementation. For example, the estimated travel time saving between Lao Cai and Hanoi by 2012 is estimated in the order of 60%1. Of course as the project highway is planned to operate as a toll road, not all travelers will take advantage of the new traffic corridor.

17. The recommended analysis methodology for the five identified output driven components of this project is discussed in the remainder of this section. The five identified components are as follows and previously defined above namely:

i. Update of the Project Cost Estimate; ii. Update of the Project Benefit Estimate; iii. Update of the Project Economic Feasibility; iv. Update of the Project Financial Feasibility; and v. Update of VEC’s Financial Projections.

18. The project methodology is shown in Figure 1.3. Components 1 and 2 which include the review of the cost and the estimated traffic flow are the keys in the reassessment of this project.

1 This is an estimate in travel time saving as derived from the Noi Bai-Lao Cai transport model used for the analysis in the earlier

project.



Figure 1.3 Methodology Flowchart

(1) Component 1 - Update Project Costs

19. This is a key component in the review. The consultant will review firstly the key engineering aspects of the project such as the:

� Engineering Design Drawings; � Quantity of Work per Contract; � Market Prices; � Key Infrastructure Components; and � Sizing and Project Staging.

20. This review will be done with the objective of identifying any potential cost savings in earthworks, pavement, road safety facilities etc. As for staging, cost savings may be obtained for example by building the divided highway sections of the project in stages. The output of this stage is an updated project cost that has considered the above plus all other issues such as land acquisition and resettlement, financial charges, consulting services, finance during construction and VEC’s administration costs.

21. In the economic environment that exists today, there is likely an opportunity for savings in some if not all cost components of the project.

(2) Component 2 – Update Economic Benefits

22. This is the second key component in the review as it also incorporates the review of the project demand.



(i) Stage 1- Review Existing Traffic Data

23. During the earlier design project, several traffic surveys were undertaken in order to develop a transport model for the purpose of estimation of traffic flows on the proposed highway project. Those surveys were completed over two years ago. The consultant will liaise with the officials of both ADB and the Vietnamese government to ascertain if there are any more recent traffic data available that is relevant to this project.

24. In particular it is understood that since 2007, there has been an update of the VITRANSS2 project. During this project, there was likely a significant new data collection.

25. The Consultant will review any other studies likely to modify the overall transport plan for the Red River corridor and any necessary updating of the transport model will be undertaken quickly and efficiently.

(ii) Stage 2 – Willingness to Pay Review

26. The current proposed toll for the project is VND 800 per PCU-km. The consultant will review the appropriateness of this toll level. Within the time frame available for this project, it is difficult to conduct and analyze the data from stated preference surveys designed to understand the willingness of users to pay for the said tolled project.

27. In any case where there is not already a similar project, there is always a question mark over the appropriateness of such stated preference surveys as it is often difficult for the potential user to correctly understand the benefits of the project to the user with reference to cost and time savings.

28. Within the project time frame, the consultant will review any other documentation and the appropriateness of other road tolls and studies of such relevance within Vietnam. No specific additional surveys are planned to be undertaken as part of this project.

(iii) Stage 3 – Review Vehicle Operating Costs

29. The range of vehicle types is use in Viet Nam is wide and the consultant will as in earlier studies adopt a total of 11 types in the analysis. It would be possible to use a smaller range, especially as the numbers of some vehicle types are not high. However, it is both more accurate and easier to use a wide range of types based on actual vehicles, rather than to develop a small number of compromise vehicle types based on averages and allocate vehicles identified in traffic surveys to these types. The following vehicle types have been adopted for use in the evaluation namely:

� Motorcycle; � Car; � 4-wheel Drive Vehicle; � Minibus; � Small Bus; � Large Bus; � Pick-up; � Light Truck; � Medium Truck; � Heavy Truck; and � Articulated Truck.

30. Motorcycles will not operate on the expressway but their operating costs on other roads need to be included in the analysis. (The number of motorcycles far exceeds the combined total of all other motorized vehicles in Viet Nam, and they are important in the analysis.) Non-motorized vehicles are not included. Although they will not operate on the expressway they do operate on the rest of the network. However, their speeds will be not be affected by the traffic flow changes resulting from the Project and so they were not included in the analysis. 2 VITRANSS is the acronym for The Study on the National Development Strategy in the Socialist Republic of Vietnam by JICA in July

2000. It is also the basis of the transport model used in the estimation of previous traffic flows on the Noi Bai-Lao Cai Highway Project.



31. Operating costs per km will be reviewed for each of the 11 vehicle types using the HDM-4 relationships incorporated in the Roads Economic Decision (RED) model. The cost portion of the HDM-4 model is appropriate, as it includes base vehicles for all the types considered, and there is flexibility in the definition of vehicles that enables them to be defined with values that reflect closely the specifications of vehicles used in Viet Nam. The key characteristics of the vehicles are based on the specified default values in the HDM-4 model, but with adjustment for Vietnamese conditions. The RED model automatically calculates VOCs for a range of road alignment types and road roughness levels.

32. The level of VOCs will be determined by many factors but the two main determinants are surface roughness and speed. Normally the model would be used to determine average speeds as part of the vehicle operating cost calculation, taking into account the characteristics of vehicles and road conditions, such as roughness, gradient and curvature. However, in this study vehicle speeds were calculated within the assignment model. Therefore VOCs can be calculated for each vehicle type for a range of specified speeds, using the speed restriction parameter in RED to control speeds. From the output a set of coefficients are then developed using multiple regression using an equation with the form:

VOC = a + b * V + c * V2

Where: VOC is operating cost in $ per km a is a constant b and c are coefficients V is speed (km/h)

33. By expressing VOCs as a function of speed in this way it was possible for costs to be determined directly for each road section, by applying the speed/flow relationship to predicted volumes of traffic. This is the same relationship that was developed in the previous project and all parameters will need reviewing to ensure that there has been no significant change.

34. All sections of the expressway will be defined as flat terrain as the alignment standard will be consistent with this, even in the Yen Bai - Lao Cai section where the surrounding terrain is mountainous. Actual surface roughness on individual road sections will be different, and will vary over time between applications of periodic maintenance. However there is no reason to assume that roughness levels on the existing network will in general be significantly different from the present state, or between the �base case” and the “with project case” as will be discussed further later. It will be considered appropriate in a study such as this to assume a standard road surface roughness, so that priorities could be determined on the basis of traffic flow, road geometry and capacity, which will all be altered by the Project in a way that can be determined. Future roughness levels in the existing network are not certain and it would not be appropriate to consider current roughness levels in detail in this study.

(iv) Stage 4 – Update the Transport Model, a New Demand Forecast

35. This is a critical stage of the project analysis review. The transport model update will include any structural changes to the model that might be identified as part of the review of documentation available during Stages 1, 2 and 3. In particular the consultant will review and modify the model structure as a result of any significant changes to the model identified in the review of VITRANSS provided such modification can be incorporated within a timely manner.

36. At this stage, the consultant will also review the key inputs into the transport model including in particular:

� Socio-economic planning data; and � Any delays in the proposed completion of Parallel Roads or other potential projects in competition

with the proposed new highway.

37. After incorporation of the above considerations, the transport model will then be run for the estimation of revised traffic flow on the highway. In the strategic project transport model, the assignment of the vehicle trips to the network is related to the generalized cost equation which is a function of time and distance and out of pocket costs. In this case, this is where the road toll, currently VND 800 per PCU-km is included in the network. The assignment program builds paths based upon the costs and assigns these vehicle trips to those paths for each origin zone. After all origin zones have been processed, link costs are



updated based upon the value of the Volume to Capacity ratio on each link. Then the entire path definition and assignment process is repeated. This process continues until the specified criteria for equilibrium is reached.

38. The assignment and the iterative processes are continued until eventually a state of equilibrium is reached. This assignment procedure therefore will include the impact of the new Road. If HDM4 had been used instead for the economic evaluation, then the network impact is not included. This is the reason that it was important to develop a strategic model developed on the CUBE3 software platform during the earlier study.

� Stage 5 – Estimate Revised Economic Benefits

39. The approach for the estimation of economic benefits will follow conventional economic appraisal methodology for road construction or improvement schemes. That is, the situation forecast to occur with the expressway constructed, referred to as the “with project case”, has been compared with the situation expected if the expressway is not built, referred to as the “base case” or the “without project case”. The comparison is made in terms of road construction and maintenance costs together with road user costs (principally VOC and passenger time costs). The reduction in road user costs for the “with project case” compared with the “base case” provides the benefits used to assesses the return on the costs.

40. The costs that will be taken into account are:

� Construction Costs - These comprise the revised capital costs4 of the project as defined in Component 1 for the expressway project, plus associated costs.

� Land and Resettlement Costs - Land costs will be included in the form of a value that represents the "opportunity cost" of the land, that is its value for alternative uses if it was not required for the road. Resettlement costs are the cost of replacing buildings within the right of way of the road. These costs will also have been updated as part of Component 1 of the project

� Operating and Maintenance Costs - These will be the annual operating costs of the expressway, such as routine and periodic road maintenance, toll collection, and administration. These costs will also have been reviewed during Component 1.

41. Four types of benefit have been quantified and incorporated in the economic evaluation of projects. These are:

� Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC) Savings - These are a basic item in road project evaluations. They are calculated by applying unit prices to the estimated consumption of component items such as fuel, tires, and crew time, for each vehicle type. These consumption levels have been calculated according to the predicted speed, surface condition and geometry of the roads involved, and the characteristics of representative vehicles. The resulting costs per vehicle km are applied to the predicted traffic flow.

� Passenger Time Savings - Passenger time cost savings are obtained when road projects shorten journeys and/or lead to an increase in vehicle speeds, thus reducing journey times. A value of time per hour for each vehicle type is applied as a unit cost to journey times to produce passenger time costs.

� Accident savings - Accident costs have been calculated by applying an average costs per accident to estimated accident rates (per 100 million vehicle km) for the expressway and other roads in the existing road network.

3 CUBE is one of the well developed software packages used in the analysis of transport systems throughout the world. 4 These capital costs are converted from financial to economic costs.



(3) Component 3 – Economic Feasibility

42. After the calculation of the economic benefits, the consultant will estimate the EIRR and the net present value of the project using the discount rate of 12%.

43. The consultant at this stage will then also develop a series of sensitivity tests to include varying project costs, benefits and tool rates, implementation period, traffic forecasts and combination of the aforementioned together with any relevant parameters that may impact on the economic project viability.

44. The analysis will identify risks and undertake appropriate risk and sensitivity analysis for EIRR in accordance with ADB’s Handbook for Integrating Risk Analysis in the Economic Analysis of Projects. This will consider the possible values for key variables such as forecast traffic, investment cost, toll rates, project financing, implementation schedule, etc. based on past experience. The combination of interest and exchange rates is also a real risk as the ADB loan is denominated in US$ and the interest rate is US$ LIBOR plus a spread. The @Risk program will be used to test the impact of the key variables (eg. ±20% forecast traffic, ±20% investment cost) and will generate the range of EIRR at the 90% confidence level.

45. The Consultant will also proposes to use the traffic model to examine the capacity requirements of the planned route, and the recommended timing of staged expansion. The results of this analysis will be reflected in the economic and financial analysis. The Consultant will be able to quickly review the basis (location, scale, timing, alternatives) for the proposed Project. The EIRR and NPV will be calculated for alternatives over the total life cycle of the Project based on ADB’s Guidelines for Economic Analysis of Projects.

46. The Consultant will carry out a distribution analysis of project benefits and calculate the poverty impact ratios in accordance with ADB’s Handbook for Incorporating Poverty Impact Analysis into Economic Analysis of Projects (2001).

(4) Component 4 – Financial Feasibility

47. Continuing the theme above; the Consultant notes that the forecast of toll revenue is inextricably linked to the traffic model. The decisions of which route to take will depend on the actual (or perceived) cost of the alternative options such as using the toll road or using an un-tolled route. For these reasons the traffic model needs to be run for various scenarios. The resulting output is a revenue forecast for the project road. This is further reason for the use of a traffic model such as the CUBE software platform.

48. The Consultant will prepare a detailed cost estimate in Excel that can be updated with variables including exchange rate, disbursement schedule, international and domestic inflation rates, etc. This will include a Project Financing Plan showing ADB lending and counterpart funds and the report will include alternative sources of funds based on maximizing returns.

49. The Consultant will prepare a financial analysis, with assumptions and rationale, which includes the financial internal rate of return and debt service coverage. The revenue risks (lower tolls, lower demand, etc.), cost risks (cost overruns, etc.) and time risks (implementation and construction delays) will be compiled into a table to indicate the sensitivity of the Project to these variables. The Consultant will propose practical management measures (cost & time controls) in order to mitigate these risks to the viability of the Project.

(5) Component 5 – VEC’s Financial Projections

50. From the above, the consultant will assess the financial projections for VEC including financial stability and sustainability of VEC. This will include a discussion on the debt service ratio and the working ratio. Projected financial statements including the profit and loss statement, cash flow statement and balance sheet for the project will be prepared for the period 2009 to 2041, based on the final recommended toll rate. All projections will be prepared in current price basis. The inflation rates for foreign and local currency portions will be based on the information obtained from discussions with staff of the ADB Hanoi office.



2. COMPONENT 1 - UPDATE OF THE PROJECT COST ESTIMATE

2.1 General

51. The project cost estimate has been prepared based on the detailed engineering design. The basic premises in estimating construction cost are as follows:

1) All construction work will be under taken by contractor(s) to be selected by International Competitive Bidding (ICB)

2) Unit rates have been recalculated to October, 2007 rates. The feasibility rates date from 2005 and there have been large increase in steel, cement and bitumen prices.

3) Quantities have been re-calculated based on finally approved alignment.

52. The Feasibility Study cost estimate for The Noi Bai-Lao Cai Highway Project was $ 833.47million in November 2007. After reassessment of Detailed Design, the cost estimate was increased to $ 1,212.93 million in October 2008. This represents an increase of 46% higher than the Feasibility Study cost estimate. The cause of this increase is mainly due to factors of Price escalation and design changes undertaken in the detailed design stage. This chapter will focus on the causes of increase for the each contract package and for the main construction items.

Table 2.1 Cost Comparison for Feasibility Study and Detailed Design Stage

FS DD as of Nov.2007 as of Oct.2008

Difference Package

($) ($) ($) Ratio

A1 117,080,105 191,947,843 74,867,738 164% A2 94,325,691 146,431,610 52,105,919 155% A3 138,740,881 167,915,386 29,174,505 121% A4 89,928,526 129,107,052 39,178,526 144% A5 120,793,193 155,348,365 34,555,172 129% A6 113,296,924 183,145,741 69,848,817 162% A7 82,314,821 116,984,718 34,669,897 142% A8 76,990,748 122,053,983 45,063,235 159%

Total 833,470,889 1,212,934,698 379,463,809 146%

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Figure2.1 Cost Comparison for Feasibility Study and Detailed Design Stage



2.2 Methodology of Cost Reassessment

53. The purpose of this chapter is to identify a cause of increase due to price escalation or volume increase. Assessment method is based on following assumption.

Price Escalation = Quantity 2007 x (Unit cost 2008-Unit Cost 2007) Volume increase = (Quantity 2008 – Quantity 2007) x Unit Cost 2007 Combined Increase = DD cost – (FS Cost + Price Escalation +Volume Increase)

2.3 Cost Increase

54. The cost increase for each package is shown in Table 2.2 and Figure 2.2. These show that the cost increases in the following six items are the main reasons for the overall cost increase.

1) Earthwork 2) Pavement 3) Traffic Safety Facility 4) Bridge 5) Tunnel 6) Local Underpass

55. Based on discussion with ADB, reassessment was carried out for these five items.

- Site clearing

- Earthwork

- Soft ground treatment - Slope protection

- Pavement

- Drainage

- Traffic safety

- Bridge

-Tunnel

- Local Underpass

- Miscellaneous

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Figure 2.2 Price Escalation



Tabl

e 2.

2 C

ost E

stim

ates



2.4 Tendency of Volume Increase

2.4.1 Earthwork

(1) Excavation

Volume increase Package from FS to DD�A2�A3�A4�A6�A7�A8 Volume Decrease Package from FS to DD�A1�A5

(2) Fill

Volume increase Package from FS to DD�A1�A2�A4 Volume Decrease Package from FS to DD�A3�A5�A6�A7�A8

56. The total excavation volume increase from FS to DD is 28,400,000m3 to 32,400,000 m3, approximately 14% increase.

57. The total fill volume increase from FS to DD is 36,700,000 m3 to 37,000,000 m3, approximately 1% increase.

58. The causes of this increase are due to required modifications of Vertical and Horizontal alignment, and in the changing in length of bridge and tunnel.

Table 2.3 Earthwork Volume

� � Excavation Fill � unit FS DD Ratio FS DD Ratio

A1 m3 824,195 222,753 27% 4,059,214 5,247,632 129% A2 m3 679,285 1,088,625 160% 3,144,124 9,048,315 288% A3 m3 1,461,557 2,871,140 196% 5,928,730 4,931,033 83% A4 m3 2,834,139 3,325,687 117% 2,984,436 3,332,705 112% A5 m3 6,396,525 5,529,453 86% 6,023,032 3,463,586 58% A6 m3 6,976,279 8,665,646 124% 6,126,777 5,095,995 83% A7 m3 4,316,623 5,455,359 126% 4,280,988 2,211,977 52% A8 m3 4,900,658 5,197,859 106% 4,193,825 3,738,718 89%

Total m3 28,389,261 32,356,522 114% 36,741,126 37,069,961 101% Difference m3 3,967,261 � 328,835 �

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 Total

Package

million m3FS

DD

Figure 2.3 Excavation Volume



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


Package

million m3FS

DD

Figure 2.4 Fill Volume

2.4.2 Pavement

(1) Pavement Area�m2

� 20% of pavement area increase package from FS to DD�A7 � 20% of pavement area decrease package from FS to DD�A4�A5 � Within 10% of pavement decrease of increase package from FS to DD�A1�A2�A3�A6�A8

59. Total pavement area change for whole package from FS to DD is 4,250,000m2 to 3,890,000 m2, a total of 9% decrease of pavement area.

60. Causes of Change

� Miscalculation of the pavement area in the FS stage for Package A4. � The 4 lane section for A5 in FS stage is longer than that in the DD stage. � 2 locations of overtaking lanes were added on DD stage for A7.

(2) Pavement Volume�m3

61. The pavement volume is increased due to pavement thickness increase even though the pavement area was decreased.

FS Pavement Thickness�76cm DD Pavement Thickness�99cm. 1.3 times thickness than FS Cause of Pavement Design Change: FS�Followed AASHTO Standards DD�Followed Vietnam Standards



Table 2.4 Pavement area

� Area(m2) � Nov.2007 Oct.2008 Difference

Ratio

A1 524,167 530,682 6,515 101% A2 418,763 373,472 � 45,291 89% A3 643,866 586,755 � 57,111 91% A4 615,358 497,371 � 117,987 81% A5 798,456 646,661 � 151,795 81% A6 556,203 492,303 � 63,900 89% A7 297,264 350,805 53,541 118% A8 396,761 411,410 14,649 104%

Total 4,250,838 3,889,459 � 361,379 91%

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000


Package

m2FS

DD

Figure 2.5 Pavement Area



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2.4.3 Traffic safety

(1) Guardrail

62. -9%�+33% of Length change from FS to DD. Total increase length is 50,000 m (10% increase).

(2) Fence

63. 4%�34% of Length change from FS to DD. Total increase length is 80,000 m (18% increase).

Table 2.5 Traffic safety Length

� � Guardrail Fence � unit FS DD Ratio FS DD Ratio

A1 m 85,302 113,607 133% 45,572 54,759 120% A2 m 67,908 77,722 114% 36,731 45,073 123% A3 m 103,666 94,557 91% 59,943 66,341 111% A4 m 88,752 95,062 107% 52,550 62,342 119% A5 m 77,611 77,541 100% 87,581 91,115 104% A6 m 26,948 28,784 107% 63,650 85,596 134% A7 m 19,401 25,349 131% 50,008 60,183 120% A8 m 26,627 34,262 129% 48,534 57,045 118%

Total m 496,215 546,884 110% 444,569 522,454 118% Difference m 50,669 � 77,885 �

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000


Package

(m)FS

DD

Figure 2.7 Guardrail Length



0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000


Package

(m)FS

DD

Figure 2.8 Fence Length

2.4.4 Bridge

64. The number of bridges increased from 113 bridges to 119 bridges in the DD stage. However, total bridge length is deceased form 15,800 m to 12,100 m (Approximately 3,700 m decrease). The bridge area also decreased from 302,000 m2 to 212,000 m2 (Approximately 90,000 m2, 30% decrease).

Table 2.6 Bridge Quantity

Area(m2) � Length(m) FS DD Difference Ratio � FS DD Difference Ratio

A1 51,361 38,782 � 12,579 76% A1 1,716 1,488 � 228 87% A2 35,629 38,220 2,591 107% A2 2,230 1,976 � 254 89% A3 67,167 45,131 � 22,036 67% A3 3,445 2,340 � 1,105 68% A4 29,541 13,073 � 16,468 44% A4 1,532 489 � 1,043 32% A5 30,832 17,224 � 13,608 56% A5 2,050 1,180 � 870 58% A6 36,539 19,960 � 16,579 55% A6 1,876 1,677 � 199 89% A7 33,742 22,811 � 10,931 68% A7 1,181 1,689 509 143% A8 17,298 16,736 � 562 97% A8 1,754 1,298 � 456 74%

Total 302,109 211,937 � 90,172 70% Total 15,782 12,137 � 3,645 77%

� Numbers(each) � FS DD Difference Ratio

A1 16 19 3 119% A2 13 19 6 146% A3 14 17 3 121% A4 9 6 � 3 67% A5 20 12 � 8 60% A6 21 18 � 3 86% A7 10 18 8 180% A8 10 10 0 100%

Total 113 119 6 105%



Bridge Area

0

50,000

100,000

150,000200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Package

(m2)FS

DD

Bridge Length

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000


Package

(m)FS

DD

Bridge Numbers

020406080

100120140


Package

(each)FSDD

Figure 2.9 Bridge Numbers



2.4.5 Tunnels

65. There were 3 tunnels provided for within the FS with a total length of tunnel of 1,640 m. There is one tunnel of 530 m length required only required in the DD stage.

Table 2.7 Tunnel Length

� Length (m) Nov.2007 Oct.2008 Difference

Ratio

A1 0 0 0 � A2 0 0 0 � A3 0 0 0 � A4 0 0 0 � A5 0 0 0 � A6 770 530 " 240 69%

A7 340 0 " 340 0%

A8 530 0 " 530 0%

Total 1,640 530 " 1,110 32%

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800


Package

(m)FS

DD

Figure 2.10 Tunnel Length

2.4.6 Local Underpass (Box)

66. Box length and/or numbers decreased from FS to DD. Package A1.�A1: Box length of 908 m decrease to 799m 12% decrease�

67. Package A2 is increased from 752 m to 785 m, 4% increase.

� Package A3�A8 is increasing 135%�275%.

The cause of these increase is based on request from the local agency. The increased number of Boxes is 218No. to 356No. (163%increase) The increased length is 5,930 m to 9,235 m. (156% increase)



Table 2.8 Local Underpass Length

Length(m) Quantity(each) Package unit FS DD Ratio FS DD Ratio

A1 m 908 799 88% 30 29 97% A2 m 752 785 104% 26 27 104% A3 m 948 1,276 135% 32 48 150% A4 m 862 1,285 149% 30 45 150% A5 m 1,004 1,759 175% 41 76 185% A6 m 617 1,396 226% 25 54 216% A7 m 431 812 188% 17 35 206% A8 m 408 1,123 275% 17 42 247%

Total m 5,930 9,235 156% 218 356 163% Difference m 3,305 � 138 �

Length

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000


Package

(m)FS

DD

Quantity

050

100150200250300350400


Package

(each)FS

DD

Figure 2.11 Local Underpass Quantity



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2.5 Tendency of Price Escalation

68. Unit cost increase for six major construction items from November, 2007 to August, 2008 is 1.32 times.

Table 2.10 Unit Cost Escalation

� � A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 Average1 Earthwork 1.17 1.18 1.23 1.22 1.15 1.23 1.08 1.10 1.17 2 Pavement 1.46 1.47 1.20 1.22 1.43 1.43 1.29 1.27 1.35 3 Traffic safety 1.30 1.31 1.13 1.29 1.14 1.27 1.23 1.48 1.27 4 Bridge 1.56 1.63 1.46 1.63 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.42 1.56 5 Tunnel 1.89 1.89 6 Local Underpass 1.11 1.02 1.18 1.39 1.26 1.25 1.26 1.28 1.22 � Average 1.32 1.32 1.24 1.35 1.31 1.44 1.29 1.31 1.32

Notes: Price escalation ratio based on FS unit cost

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2.5.1 Earthwork

69. The cost increase for each package of earthwork from FS to DD is 1.08�1.23 times. The average for the whole package is 1.17 times. However, there are cost decrease items within some of the unit costs.



2.5.2 Pavement

70. The cost increase for each package of pavement work from FS to DD is 1.20�1.47 times. The average for the whole package is 1.35 times. In the A3 and A4 Packages, the cost for gravel or stone is largely increased. However, the cost for gravel for the other packages are only slightly increased but bituminous material’s cost increase is high. For the packages A7 and A8, the gravel cost is decreased.

2.5.3 Traffic safety

71. The cost increase for each package of traffic safety from FS to DD is 1.14�1.48 times. The average for the whole package is 1.27 times.

2.5.4 Bridge

72. The cost increase for each package for bridges from FS to DD is 1.42�1.63 times. The average for the whole package is 1.56 times. Of particular note is that the concrete and steel material’s cost increases are high. Taking the cost increase for each construction item, the overall Bridge cost increase is sharing a high ratio of 26%�67% for each package and 48% for total cost increase.

2.5.5 Tunnel

73. Whilst there were 3 tunnels (A6, A7, and A8) in the FS, there is one tunnel (A6) in the DD. The tunnel length of package A6 is decreased from 770 m to 530 m. However, unit cost for tunnels has increased considerably (10,275 $/M to 19,389 $/m). Consequently, the tunnel cost for A6 is increased from $ 7.91 Million to $ 10.28 Million.

2.5.6 Local Underpass

74. The cost increase for each package for underpasses from FS to DD is 1.02�1.39 times. The average for whole package is 1.22 times.

75. The comparison results for FS and DD for each package are shown below. A1 and A2 were selected for representative bridge cost analysis.



Table 2.11 Analysis of Price escalation (1/9)



Table 2.11 Analysis of Price escalation (2/9)



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2.6 Tendency of Construction Cost Increase

76. Civil work cost on year 2007, November was $ 833.47 million, and civil work cost on year 2008, October was $ 1, 212.93 million. The cost increase is shown to be 46% higher within one year. This chapter analyses the cause of this increase.

Table 2.12 Price Escalation

FS DD as of Nov.2007 as of Oct.2008

Difference Package

($) ($) ($)

Ratio

A1 117,080,105 191,947,843 74,867,738 164% A2 94,325,691 146,431,610 52,105,919 155% A3 138,740,881 167,915,386 29,174,505 121% A4 89,928,526 129,107,052 39,178,526 144% A5 120,793,193 155,348,365 34,555,172 129% A6 113,296,924 183,145,741 69,848,817 162% A7 82,314,821 116,984,718 34,669,897 142% A8 76,990,748 122,053,983 45,063,235 159%

Total 833,470,889 1,212,934,698 379,463,809 146%

77. Cost comparison results for FS and DD are shown from next “Table 2.13 Comparison table of Cost Estimates”.


Economic and Financial Reassessment of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS): Page 38Kunming - Hai Phong Transport Corridor - Noi Bai - Lao Cai Highway ProjectADB TA No. 7281-VIE

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78. Simulation cost estimates for cost increases are shown in Figure 2.13 Cost Comparison.

79. The cost increases for the major six construction items are $ 388 million (FS stage $ 712 million, and DD stage $ 1,100 million), an increase of 1.54 times from the FS stage. According to our simulation cost estimate the detail of this cost increase is: FS base cost 63%, Price Escalation 35% and Volume increase 2%.

80. Applying the analysis to each package, A1, A2 and A8 shows that FS Base cost is 60%, Price escalation ratio is 30%, and Volume increase is 10%. As for A3, A4, A5, and A7, FS base cost is 70%, Price Increase is 30%, and there is no Volume increase. As for A6, FS base cost is 62%, Price increase is 36%, and Volume Increase is only 2%.

81. As a result of this analysis, the key overall cause of cost increase is Price Escalation. However, Pavement work shows that the main cause of cost increase is mainly volume increase. The reason of this pavement increase will explained in the next chapter.

82. Concerning the Pavement cost increase, as shown on Figure 2.14 Cost Comparison of Pavement, the FS base cost is 54%, Price Escalation is 23%, and Volume Increase is 19%. DD cost estimate for pavement work is showing that two times of FS stage cost estimation. The cause of this cost increase is the thickness of pavement increase from 76 cm on FS stage increase to 99 cm on DD stage. The pavement cost increase is shown in “Figure 2.15 Cost Comparison of Volume Increase”.

83. For the Bridge cost analysis, Price escalation portion is 48% of main six construction items as shown “Figure 2.16 Cost Comparison of Price Escalation”.



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2.7 Conclusion

84. Construction cost for Noi Bai – Lao Cai Expressway project has increased from $ 833 million on FS stage to $ 1,213 million on DD stage, which is 1.46 times the FS stage cost estimate ($ 379 million increase).

85. The pavement area has decreased 9% from FS stage to DD stage. However, the pavement volume has increased due to increased of pavement thickness in the DD stage to comply with the Vietnamese standards. FS pavement thickness was 64cm at the FS stage and is increased to 99cm, representing an increase of 1.3 times.

86. The number of Bridges included in the FS stage has increased from 113 to 119 in the DD stage. However, total bridge length of 15,800 m is decreased to 12,100 m and bridge area is also decreased from 302,000 m2 to 211,000 m2 (30%decrease).

87. The price escalation of the six major construction items are $ 712 million of FS stage to $ 1,100 million. The difference is $ 388 million which is 1.54 times the FS stage.

88. The overall breakdown of cost escalation shows that it is mainly due to price escalation. However, with focus on each of the construction items, the cost increase of earth work and pavement work is showing that Price Escalation and Volume increase ratio is almost same value. The price escalation part of Bridge work is high, but the number decrease is contributing for decrease of total bridge construction cost. In addition, contingency increase is one of main reason of Cost increase.

Table 2.14 Cost Increase by Major Construction Items

� Price Escalation Volume Increase Combined Increase

Volume + Combined Total

- Earthwork 58,227,907 36,612,080 � 4,154,352 32,457,728 90,685,635 - Pavement 53,392,564 45,981,450 10,431,282 56,412,732 109,805,296 - Traffic safety 14,160,324 2,338,885 380,854 2,719,739 16,880,063 - Bridge 129,014,281 � 62,793,178 � 32,570,173 � 95,363,351 33,650,930 - Tunnel 7,013,938 � 11,400,613 � 2,183,553 � 13,584,166 � 6,570,228 - Local Underpass 6,517,221 10,994,903 5,777,802 16,772,705 23,289,926 - Contingency 120,168,184 0 0 0 120,168,184

Total 388,494,419 21,733,527 � 22,318,140 � 584,613 387,909,806

Figure 2.17 Cost Increase by Major Construction Items



3. COMPONENT 2 - TRANSPORT DEMAND FORECAST

3.1 Overview of Methodology

89. In the earlier Technical Assessment of the project in 2007 for the ADB, the analytical transport modeling tools were developed from the Vietnam wide VITRANSS5 project. In this analytical review, it was first envisaged that this review would incorporate all features of the update of Vietnam wide project known as VITRANSS 26 Project. However this was not practical within the timeframe of this project. Essentially the earlier work has been updated with the latest available socio-economic inputs and validated against new traffic count surveys. Details of the earlier model structure are included in summary in this chapter of the report for completeness.

90. The transport network as illustrated in Figure 3.1 essentially is developed from an earlier network model of Vietnam. The project model is derived from the detailed transport model of the VITRANSS project. This model is then re validated against the new traffic survey data collected during this project in the vicinity of the proposed expressway. Later, after model validation, economic network costs7 are prepared for the area shown in this figure.

Figure 3.1 Expressway Project

91. The VITRANSS model was developed as a four step transport model for Vietnam. The model was developed within the framework of the STRADA8 transport planning software. Essentially all the equations used in this transport model for the NB-LC expressway evaluation are derivatives of VITRANNS but are documented in this section of the report for completeness.

92. This four step procedure in VITRANSS is used both for freight and person movements in Vietnam across all modes of transport on land, water and air. The key forecast inputs into this model are economic

5 VITRANSS is the acronym for The Study on the National Development Strategy in the Socialist Republic of Vietnam by JICA in July

2000. 6 The Comprehensive Study on the Sustainable Development of Transport System in Vietnam under final preparation for Japan

International Cooperation Agency and the Ministry of Transport in Vietnam is known as VITRANSS 2. 7 These network costs consisting of vehicle operating costs and travel time costs are prepared for different scenarios. 8 STRADA is the transport modeling software package developed by JICA.



growth and population. In the case of the model for NB-LC expressway, a first estimate of traffic on the existing roads is prepared within the framework of the NB-LC transport model.9

93. The four step VITRANNS model consisting of the following segments namely:

� Trip Generation; � Trip Distribution; � Mode Split; and � Traffic Assignment

94. Following the successful validation of the base year, future transport demand was estimated in the corridor between Lao Cai and Noi Bai. This forecast traffic in 2009 is then compared with the existing observed traffic counts. The forecast demand included natural traffic growth, traffic generated by the project as well as forecasts on the traffic projected to enter Vietnam at Lao Cai from China.

3.2 Traffic Surveys and their Analyses

95. For this study review traffic surveys were undertaken at 13 locations in the corridor of the NB-LC expressway as shown in Table 3.1 and depicted in Figure 3.2. All surveys were undertaken over a consecutive two day period. Roadside interviews10 were undertaken at 9 sites, two of which were for the whole day. The daily traffic volumes11 at each survey site are presented in Table 3.2 after being converted to a representative annual average daily traffic count using seasonal adjustment factors.

96. At these 13 locations, the traffic count ranges from 20,100 pcu in the vicinity of Hanoi to around 700 on National Route 279 in Lao Cai Province. In the vicinity of Hanoi, motorcycles are around 50% of the vehicle mix. At the Lao Cai end of the expressway project, the vehicle mix consists of more than 60% of motorcycles. In addition on National Route 70, the vehicle mix includes nearly 20% of trucks. For completeness, the earlier traffic counts undertaken in 2007 are also included in Table 3.2. This clearly shows the significant change since 2007. There is a decline on traffic on Route 2 of around 10% which is within the limit of the historical decline (see discussion on Box 3.1). The decline in traffic on other routes is only for traffic of low volumes.

97. The historical changes in traffic counts along Routes 2 and 70 are discussed in Box 3.1 These historical traffic counts in the vicinity of Hanoi on Route 2 indicate a decline in traffic as shown in Box 3.1 by between 20 and 30%. It is the Urban traffic count on Route 2 that shows an increase near Hanoi. Whereas the traffic at the northern end of the project reflect an increase in traffic. Both of these trends are reflected in the traffic counts undertaken for this project. These changes are reflected later in the project traffic forecasts.

Table 3.1 Traffic Survey Location and Survey Type

Station Highway (National Route Number) Traffic Count Survey Duration

(hours) 1 2 X 24 2 2C X 16 3 2 X 16 4 32 X 16 5 2 X 24 6 32C X 16 7 2 X 16 8 32C X 16 9 37 X 16

10 37 X 16 11 279 X 16 12 4D X 16 13 70 X 16

Source: Consultants 9 The NB-LC transport model incorporates the equations and structure of VITRANSS. The VITRANSS model was migrated from the

STRADA transport planning software to the CUBE software as part of this project. 10 These road site interviews were for the “Willingness to Pay” Surveys which are discussed in later part of this report. 11 Where these traffic counts were originally a 16 hour count, the count has been expanded to the full 24 hours or daily count.



Table 3.2 Traffic Surveys – Daily Traffic Counts12

Station13 Motorcycle Cars Bus Truck Total (vehicles) Total (pcu) Total

(pcu in 2007)1 9,773 2,039 2,637 5,931 20,381 20,127 22,331 2 3,531 355 212 332 4,429 2,276 3,503 3 6,952 2,203 1,972 4,811 15,938 16,342 17,572 4 1,082 536 406 697 2,720 2,718 3,547 5 2,362 1,354 1,796 4,080 9,592 11,753 12,066 6 2,754 1,003 259 974 4,989 3,788 6,114 7 1,818 928 777 1,320 4,843 5,169 5,685 8 1,166 310 54 408 1,937 1,298 1,369 9 1,800 504 126 844 3,274 2,410 3,156

10 2,248 895 343 1,385 4,871 4,180 4,853 11 585 180 123 97 985 702 566 12 5,120 995 569 739 7,423 4,609 3,105 13 4,344 961 453 1,373 7,132 5,521 3,918

Source: Traffic Surveys

Box 3.1 Historical Trends along Routes 2 and 70 12 The traffic counts were undertaken during the month of September. Each location was counted over a two to three weekdays. The

earlier surveys in 2077 were undertaken over a similar time during the month of April. The traffic counts were then adjusted with seasonal factors from VRA to represent an annual average weekday traffic count.

13 Sites 1, 3, 5 and 12 were adjusted in comparison with other nearby traffic counts from VRA. Seasonal Factors were included in the traffic counts.

Route 2 and Route 70 are parallel roads at least in part to the new expressway. The historic traffic pattern (all vehicles excluding motorcycles) on Route 2 has declined by as much as 28 % between 2007 and 2009 at some locations whereas over the same period the traffic on Route 70 has increased. This is shown below for Route 2. The traffic closer to Hanoi is increasing between 2007 and 2009 but there is a decline in traffic further from Hanoi. This is likely the result of two phenomena namely:

� General economic trend as a result of the changing world economic situation; and � Depopulation of the hinterland surrounding Hanoi.

The probable depopulation of the hinterland and the urban sprawl of Hanoi will result in increased traffic in the immediate vicinity of Hanoi and the decrease in traffic further from Hanoi.

Source: VRA

Whereas, the historic traffic has increased at all locations between 2007 and 2009 on Route 70 as is shown in the figure below.

Source: VRA

A similar same changes in the traffic is reflected in the traffic counts undertaken during this project with the counts on Route 2 showing around a 10% decrease whilst traffic counts on Route 10 reflect an increase.



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s



3.3 Structure and Contents of the Transport Model

98. Essentially a transport model includes three distinct items namely; software, a database and a set of equations linked together. The NB-LC transport model structure including this updated version is a series of linked modules. In the model there are six linked modules namely:

� Trip Generation; � Network Development; � Trip Distribution; � Mode Split; � Vehicle Assignment; and � Report Module.

99. The first step in the development of the NB-LC model is a migration of the transport model from the STRADA software to the CUBE14,15 modeling structure as shown in Figure 3.3. The model structure is simply a series of layered boxes or frames with the opening window shown here in this figure linked together via the model catalogue file. The model catalogue is the unique binary file that describes the complete transport model. This is the common structure for each scenario.

Figure 3.3 Transport Model Overview

100. On the left hand side of the opening window in the catalogue is the control window whilst the overall transport model structure is described in the right or the central window. The control window is split into four sub windows namely:

� The Scenario window; � The Application window; � The Data window; and � The Key window.

14 CUBE is the propriety transport planning software of the CITILABS Company now also incorporating the older TRIPS and

TRANPLAN software packages. Voyager is a scripting language that allows the user to develop their own interfaces. 15 It is recommended that the equations from VITANNSS 2 should also be migrated into CUBE format at the earliest opportunity by a

subsequent project. VITRANSS 2 was also developed using STRADA.



101. The Scenario window lists the various different project scenarios incorporating alternative networks or different years of the analysis. In this case, there are now three additional principal scenarios defined for each of the new focus years namely the revised base year of 2009 and the forecast years of 2014 and 2024. The full scenario window of the transport model is shown in Box 1.

102. The Application window is essentially the manager of all the operations that form the transport model. It includes all the various applications linked to this Catalogue. In this case, the applications are in essence the six modules of the NB-LC transport model. Each of these modules when opened is a flowchart of various software programs from the CUBE suite of software. The flowcharts are illustrated in Figure 3.4 for selected modules.

103. These detailed views present a hierarchical flow chart style that offers the following:

� A clear view of the individual processes that form the complete process, the flow of data from one process to another, and the order in which the processes are run;

� A clear view of the data that is input to, and output from each process; � A convenient means of editing and viewing that data; and � A convenient interface for running either part of the process, or the whole thing.

104. Each application as shown in Figure 3.4 is made up of a set of numbered boxes, where each such box is either a program box, or a group box. A group box represents a group of programs defined in another Application file. Groups are used to split up the functionality into logical sections thus making the Application more readable as it prevents the need for a mass of programs to be together on one display. Groups are shown with taller boxes than the program boxes.

105. The numbers on the boxes reflect the order in which the boxes are run, called the execution order. In for example the trip generation application there are six different programs boxes. The figure shows the linkage of inputs and outputs between the programs. A program box may have an execution order of 0 to indicate that it is not run as part of the batch execution of the application.

Box 1 Scenario Window



Figure 3.4 Generation and Assignment Module

106. The Data window allows the user easy and quick access to any specified input or output data files. This window also allows for the creation of simple reports. The last window is the Key window which controls all major input variables both scalar and vector. This window is shown incompletely in Figure 3.3. The Keys define items that vary each time an Application in a Catalog is run. They may represent a file,

ASSIGNMENT

TRIP GENERATION



number, character string, or Boolean flag. They are assigned values by Scenario. When a Scenario is edited, all of the keys are displayed on a dialog so that each can be given a value for the Scenario. A specific input screen window is prepared for the input values for these keys and this is illustrated in Figure 3.5. These key inputs are also defined in Table 3.3.

107. After the model structure is constructed in the framework of CUBE software, the equations and the database are incorporated in the model. For the NB-LC transport model, the equations are incorporated from VITRANSS. The VITRANSS database is integrated into the NB-LC model and this database is upgraded to existing situation in Vietnam for the North West portion of the network.

108. The Trip Generation Module is essentially the development of the number of trips16 that start and finish in a particular traffic zone. As the NB-LC transport model is a derivative of VITRANSS, every province in Vietnam is represented as a traffic zone. The number of person trips generated or attracted by a traffic zone is determined as a function of population and zonal regional GDP (GRDP) in 1994 value VND. The function takes the form of the product of GRDP and Urban Population17 plus a constant. The coefficients are presented in Table 3.4. In addition to this function, a calibration factor was estimated during VITRANSS for each traffic zone.

Figure 3.5 The Opening Window

16 Trips in this case are defined as the number of long distance trips generated by a traffic zone. 17 All socio-economic forecasts including the base year are presented in a later section.



Table 3.3 Description of Model Input Keys

Model Key Description

Scenario Name Name automatically generated by the software as a result of defining the scenario.

Zone The Number of Traffic zones

Title This is a comment string that is available for use in reports.

Demographic A database file containing all zoning planning data for the current scenario.

GDPFactor A global factor applied to Provincial GDP

POPFactor A global factor applied to Population

Base_Matrix Base External Matrix

Base_Plan Base Year Planning Data

Year The scenario year

GDP_Por File for Proportion of GDP by Sector

Com_Prod File of Commodities available by Region

Generation Inclusion or otherwise of generated traffic

Toll_Rate Specification of Toll Rate in VND per km.

VoC_T_P Perceived Vehicle18 Operating Costs and Perceived Value of Travel Time

VoC_T_E Economic Vehicle Operating Costs and Perceived Value of Travel Time

NewModelRun This parameter describes a branch to additional features of the NB-LC transport model used only in the updated version of the transport model.

SectionA4A519 This parameter determines whether sections A4 and A5 are included or excluded in the With and Without Project Networks.

Source: Consultant

109. In the case of the estimation of freight movements, the amount of freight generated or attracted to a particular traffic is in terms of tonnes for a particular commodity. This is developed for 14 commodity groups. This is given in general by the following equation:

Generated or Attracted Trips= a*X1 +b*X2+c

where X1 and X2 are defined as variables such as surplus or deficit of a commodity group for a particular traffic zone (see Table 3.5).

The calibration parameters of a, b and c are defined in Table 3.6.

Table 3.4 Person Trip Generation Coefficients

Trip Class Product Co-Efficient Constant

Generation 3.2994 4629.5

Attraction 3.2993 4826.7

Source: VITRANSS

110. The character of X1 and X2 variables vary for different commodity groups. Besides including the surplus or deficit for a particular commodity, the nature of the variables is such that they also include other

18 The perceived costs are different to the economic costs in that in for example in the cost of operating a car they refer to only the

running costs such as fuel rather than the full economic cost which would include the capital cost of the vehicle. 19 For this project, the expressway is also divided into 8 sections,A1 to A8 as well as the original three sections designated A, B and

C. The project is evaluated in subsequent sections with and without the construction of Sections A4 and A5. The eight sections are depicted later in Figure 3.8.



zonal parameters such as secondary sector and tertiary sector of GDP. The breakdown of GDP into primary, secondary and tertiary sectors was estimated for the base and projected during the VITRANSS study.

Table 3.5 Generation and Attraction Variables20

Generation Attraction Commodity

X1 X2 X1 X2

Paddy and Other Crops Surplus Deficit GRDP

Sugarcane Surplus - Deficit GRDP

Sugar Surplus GRDP Urban Population

-

Wood Products Surplus Secondary GRDP

Deficit GRDP

Steel Surplus Tertiary GRDP Deficit GRDP

Construction Materials Surplus Tertiary GRDP Deficit Secondary GRDP

Cement Surplus Tertiary GRDP Deficit Tertiary GRDP

Fertilizer Surplus Tertiary GRDP Tertiary GRDP -

Coal Surplus Secondary GRDP

Deficit -

Petroleum Products Surplus Tertiary GRDP Deficit (Secondary + Tertiary) GRDP

Industrial Crops Surplus Tertiary GRDP Deficit Urban Population

Manufacturing Goods Surplus Tertiary GRDP Deficit Secondary GRDP

Fishery Products Surplus Tertiary GRDP Deficit Urban Population

Animal Meat and Others Surplus Tertiary GRDP Deficit Urban Population

Source: VITRANSS

Table 3.6 Generation and Attraction Co-efficient in Freight Equations

Generation Attraction Commodity a B c a b c

Paddy and Other Crops 1.5 0.25 -39.7 1.13 0.10 -10.3 Sugarcane 0.05 - 10.3 0.70 0.001 8.3 Sugar 1.60 0.03 -53.9 0.25 - -2.93 Wood Products 0.55 0.07 90.9 2.51 0.01 13.4 Steel 1.73 0.06 -19.8 1.80 0.02 - 9.6 Construction Materials 0.78 0.11 -54.7 0.27 0.04 436.8 Cement 1.72 0.06 6.9 1.37 0.04 23.0 Fertilizer 2.36 0.13 -41.7 0.15 - 218.2 Coal 4.32 0.01 110.4 7.14 - -234.1 Petroleum Products 1.12 0.24 -195.1 2.55 0.01 -34.4 Industrial Crops 1.79 0.03 -22.4 0.40 0.35 -44.4 Manufacturing Goods 1.43 0.020 62.5 1.33 0.16 188.5 Fishery Products 0.004 0.026 -9.8 .0008 0.29 -16.5 Animal Meat and Others 0.007 0.02 4.3 0.01 0.13 -11.2

Source: VITRANSS

20 There are also some dummy variables but these have been excluded for simplicity of presentation. Further details are available in

the documentation of VITRANSS.



111. The Network Development Module includes the procedure of including or excluding the NB-LC expressway project in the network as well as the exclusion or inclusion of sections A4 and A5. This is determined as a function of the Scenario name. For example, if “No Expressway” is included in the scenario name, then the expressway is dropped from the network. The base network is inclusive of all modes of land, water and air transport. For the NB-LC project, additional fields were added to the original databases that describe the proposed expressway.

112. The road network database is also linked to a geographical map for the purpose of presentation. Network links are represented as a shape rather than a straight line. For this project, the principal interest is road transport. The travel time on other modes is estimated for inclusion in the mode split module.

113. Some parameters are taken from the original VITRANSS network and used in the final estimation of road link capacity. These included the pavement width, pavement condition and the side friction. This data was updated in the vicinity of the project as a result of site inspections21.

114. The capacity of a road link for a two lane road which currently includes most roads in the vicinity of project is a function of the terrain. The initial capacity of a link as developed during VITRANSS is in the range of 2,500 pcu per hour for mountainous terrain to 3,100 pcu per hour for flat terrain. When a two lane road is widened to a four lane road, it is assumed that the capacity increases by its base capacity. This base capacity is adjusted for the following conditions namely:

� Side Friction; � Directional Traffic Split; � Actual Pavement Width; and � Motorcycle Traffic.

115. The Trip Distribution Module includes an estimation of the number of trips between origin and destination zones for both freight and person trips. In the case of person trips, the trips are defined as:

TRIP22 ij = 0.0812 * Gi 0.7075 * Aj

0.70164 * 6.4053 / dij where:

G = the number of trip productions for a zone; A = the number of trip attractions for a zone;. dij = the travel distance between zones; i = the production zone; and j = the attraction zone.

116. In the case of freight trip distribution, VITRANSS identified a poor correlation to any standard distribution so a Fratar procedure was adopted to grow the existing travel patterns. Fratar Distribution is the process of modifying a matrix of values based upon a set of generation and attraction factors for each of the zones in the matrix. The mathematical process is a relatively simple iterative one:

a. In the first iteration, each row in the matrix is factored according to its production factor. At the end of the iteration, the row totals will match the target row values, but the column totals will most likely not match their targets.

b. In the second iteration each column in the modified matrix is factored according its attraction factor.

At then end of the iteration, the column totals will match the target column values, but the row totals may not match their targets.

c. This process continues for some number of iterations; the row and column totals should converge

towards the target totals. When convergence is met, the process is complete.

21 Network improvements in the vicinity of the project were updated following a site inspection in September, 2009. 22 A dummy variable is also included in some traffic zones. This is further detailed in the documentation of the VITRANSS project.



117. The Mode Split Module is the procedure of splitting the travel between zones whether it be freight or person travel into the mode of travel. In the first instance of person travel patterns between traffic zones is estimated almost as an extension of the trip distribution module. Air and car travel are estimated first using the following formula23:

Tij = a*(UPOPi b * GDPCi c)* (UPOPj d * GDPCij e)/tijf

Where Tij is the number of trips between zone i and j. UPOP is the urban population of zone i or j in Thousand; GDPC is the zonal GDP per capita in million 1994 value VND; tij is the modal travel time between zone i and j a, b, c, d, e, and f are calibration constants defined in Table 3.7.

Table 3.7 Person Mode Split Parameters

Mode a b c d e f

Air 0.6554 0.2951 0.2951 0.1441 0.1441 0

Car 0.6199 0.3023 0.4867 0.2957 0.5217 0.9449

Source: VITRANSS

118. Railway and Inland Water mode travel is defined as a proportion of the remaining trips after air and car travel have been estimated from the total trips. For the situation in which there is an available rail or inland water route, the proportions of these modes are defined as a function of the travel time difference between bus and the other mode and are governed by the following formulae:

Proportion of Rail= 1/(1+e 2.4281-0.0295*(time difference between Bus and Rail)); and

Proportion of Water= 1/(1+e -0.6676-0.0418*(time difference between Bus and Water))

119. After the trips of all other modes have been estimated, then the remaining trips between any origin destination pair are assigned to the bus mode. It is also at this stage in the model that generated trips as a result of the expressway project are included in the transport model. Mode Split of freight trips is included in VITRANSS by simply reflecting the existing modal designations into the future.

120. The Vehicle Assignment Module is the allocation of the trips between zones to various travel routes. This is done only for road transport. It is at this stage that the person traffic by car and bus mode is converted into traffic units of pcu whilst the freight tonnage is converted into truck movements. Prior to traffic assignment, there is also an application of calibration factors developed during the validation of the transport model to quickly replicate the existing base year traffic.

121. The assignment of these vehicle trips to the network is related to the generalized cost equation which is a function of time and distance and out of pocket costs. In this case, this is where the road toll is included in the network. The estimation of the co-efficient of perceived vehicle operating cost and travel time are documented later in this report in the chapter that discusses economic parameters.

122. The assignment program builds paths based upon the costs defined above and assigns each of these vehicle trip types to those paths for each origin zone. After all origin zones have been processed, link costs are updated based upon the value of the Volume to Capacity ratio on each link. Then the entire path definition and assignment process is repeated. This process continues until the specified criteria for equilibrium is reached. The volumes from each iteration are then combined to form a weighted assignment.

123. An equilibrium assignment procedure is adopted in this model. As this network is "well behaved", the assignment and the iterative processes are continued until, eventually a state of equilibrium is reached. That state is reached when further adjustments in the link costs used for routing, will not produce significant differences in the system as a whole. In theory, equilibrium is reached when there is no ability for an individual origin destination path cost to improve, without causing degradation in other parts of the network.

23 For the purpose of simplification, dummy variables which address the attractiveness of DaNang to the major centres of Hanoi and

Ho Chin Minh City are not included as part of the equation.



If a system has a significant degree of congestion, it may be difficult (practically impossible) to reach a true state of equilibrium. This equilibrium process is essentially a feedback loop.

124. The result from one assignment iteration is used as the input into the next assignment phase until convergence is reached within the assignment. This iterative procedure is linked by the speed flow curves designated in Figure 3.6. These speed flow curves were adopted from the Indonesian Highway Capacity Manual24. They are presented here for five classes of roads namely:

� Class 1 - Expressway; � Class 2 - Multi Lane Arterial; � Class 3 – Wide 2 Lane Arterial; � Class 4 – 2 Lane Road; and � Class 5 – Narrow 2 Lane Road.

125. An additional option that is included in the assignment procedure here is the ability to track all trips on a particular route. This is known as the selected link option. For the NB-LC model, this option is implemented to track the origin and destination of all trips using the proposed expressway.

126. The Report Module is essentially an economic and financial module. It is at this stage that specific reports are prepared for input into future economic or financial analysis. One report documents the economic costs associated with a particular scenario. These are summarized for vehicle operating costs, travel time and accident costs. The parameters used in the development of the economic costs are summarized later in this report in the economic section. A second report produces an estimation of the traffic volume by section including the total revenue for the expressway. For the purpose of traffic estimation, the expressway is divided into two different groupings the original three sections and a more detailed subdivision unto eight sections which is discussed further later in this part of the report. The original split into three sections is namely:

� A - Noi Bai to Viet Tri; � B - Viet Tri to Yen Bai; and � C- Yen Bai to Lao Cai.

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4

Series2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Spee

d (k

m/h

our)

Volume to Assignment Capacity Ratio

Speed Decay Function by Representative Road TypeInter-urban Highways

Class 1

Class 2

Class 3

Class 4

Class 5

Figure 3.6 Speed Flow Curve

24 The Indonesian Highway Capacity Manual is used, because it is the only dedicated capacity manual in South East Asia that

incorporates conditions that are typical of South East Asia.



3.4 Socio Economic Forecasts

127. There is little available in the way of detail on socio economic characteristics of Vietnam from the earlier reports on this project mentioned in Section I. In VITRANSS, there is a detailed socio economic forecast by traffic zone. The key socio economic indicators for each traffic zone are namely:

� Population; � Proportion of Urban Population; � Regional GDP; � Proportions of GDP by Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Sector; and � Product Surplus and Deficit by Commodity.

128. Not all of the above data was available at the provincial level for the base year and future scenarios. Forecasts of all data was available from VITRANNS, these earlier forecasts were adopted in the NB-LC transport model. The key demographic indicator of population was available in 2009 from the General Statistics Office (GSO), Vietnam at a provincial level. The distributed growth rates into the future were adopted from the VITRANSS 2 reports. The distributions of other socio economic indicators were also taken from this database.

129. The socio economic parameters were then constrained by the key control totals25 of population and GDP as developed from the growth rates estimated from the “Kunming-Haiphong Transport Corridor Multimodal Transport Study” described in Section 1 and as presented in Table 3.8. The regional GDP must be described in 1994 value VND as that is the currency reference year for all of the VITRANSS model equations.

Table 3.8 Key Economic Indicators

Year Population (Million) GDP (Billion VND In 1994 Value)

2009 85.8 528,425

2014 91.7 731,584

2024 104.2 1,327,346

Source: VITRANSS 2 and General Statistics Office (GSO), Vietnam

130. These key economic indicators project a growth in GDP between 2009 and 2014 of 6.7% per annum and 6.1% per annum between 2014 and 2024. The growth in GDP per capita in the same two time periods is 5.3% per annum and 4.8% per annum respectively. For reference in the earlier Technical Assessment of the Project in 2007, the then GDP growth in the first six years between 2006 and 2012 was estimated at 6.0% per annum and the following 10 years was estimated at 4.6% per annum26.

3.5 Base Year Validation

131. The key to the successful adoption of VITRANSS equations for this project is the validation of the base year traffic forecasts against existing traffic counts. As part of the original validation process, the transport model is run in the base year to develop an initial matrix. This initial forecast base year matrix was combined with the observed travel matrix from survey data to form the prior matrix as input into matrix estimation. Matrix estimation is a mathematical procedure for using observed data such as traffic counts and roadside interviews to improve the model framework. This was done for three vehicle classes of car, bus and truck.

132. The model validation check of traffic counts against observed data was repeated in 2009 without the need for further matrix estimation. Essentially the main change in the input model parameters was that of the socio economic database.

25 These control totals were insured in the transport by the application of the model control keys, GDP Factor and Pop_Fac. 26 However the base GDP in 2007 was 20% higher than the current estimate of GDPin 2009.



133. A useful simple statistic to determine the closeness of fit between traffic count and link assignment estimate is the MAD27 ratio which is defined as:

MAD Ratio = nCountEstimateCount 1*� �

Where MAD ratio = Mean absolute difference ratio; Count = Traffic Count; Estimate = Estimate from Matrix calibration procedure; and N = Number of observations.

134. For this analysis the MAD ratio was 0.20 for all vehicles. This is considered an acceptable validation and is similar to the earlier acceptable validation in 2007.

3.6 Transport Demand Forecasts

135. After the validation of the transport model in the base year, it is then executed for the two future year scenarios in 2014 and 2024 for several different scenario options. The growth in local traffic which is not reflected in the inter urban model traffic is incorporated into the transport model by including an allowance for the slowing of traffic as a result of increase in local traffic.

136. The GDP forecasts that drive the growth in transport are presented earlier. The elasticity of growth in travel in relation to GDP are estimated as 2 for person trips and 1 for truck traffic in the ‘Kunming-Haiphong Transport Corridor Multimodal Transport Study’. The regional elasticity curves from this study that support that assumption are reproduced in Figure 3.7 for person trips whilst the elasticity for person trips in the region is reproduced in Table 3.12.

137. The NB-LC transport model estimates growth in person traffic between 2009 and 2024 of 11% per annum in comparison to 6.4% per annum growth in GDP in the same period. In the case of cargo traffic this is anticipated to increase by 8.3% per annum in the same time frame. These two growth rates in traffic between 2009 and 2024 are therefore not in a dissimilar comparable range to that defined by the elasticity values.

Figure 3.7 Relationship between GDP and Car Ownership

27 In this type of validation a MAD Ratio value of less than 0.3 is considered an acceptable value



Table 3.9 Country Specific Elasticities

Source: Kunming-Haiphong Transport Corridor Multimodal Transport Study

138. At the time of preparation of the future network, the toll is included in the new expressway. Also in preparation of the future network, the two parallel roads of National Highway 2 and National Highway 32 are increased in capacity to four lanes by 2014 between Hanoi and Viet Tri. The section of the road to Vinh Yen has already been increased to four lanes between 2006 and 2009. The model reference case toll used for the base analysis is assumed at 1.000 VND28 per pcu-km. This is in line with the assumptions of previous studies.

139. The inclusion of the project expressway into the road network results in the diversion of traffic from the parallel highways of Route 2 and 70. This is best illustrated in the year 2024. In most sections of the proposed project expressway, a little over 60% of traffic including generated traffic within the corridor on the new road is attracted from the immediate parallel highway roads. This implies that traffic on the new highway is drawn from a wider area than the immediate parallel road. This is illustrated in Table 3.10.

Table 3.10 Traffic Diversion from National Parallel Routes 2/70 in 202429

With Project Case No Project Highway Section

Project Highway Traffic

Parallel Route Traffic

Parallel Route Traffic

Percentage of Traffic on Project Highway Diverted from Parallel Road

Yen Bai – Lao Cai 13,200 8,400 14,100 61%

Viet Tri – Noi Bai 41,800 24,300 45,500 63%

Source: Consultant’s Estimate

140. Generated traffic is additional traffic produced beyond normal growth as a result of the development of the expressway corridor. It is implicitly included in the transport model, with generated truck traffic of 20% between Lao Cai and Yen Bai and 18% south east of Viet Tri. No explicit work was undertaken during this project to estimate the level of generated traffic. This level of traffic growth is assumed to occur after the opening of the expressway and this level is the estimate as provided in the earlier mentioned ‘Kunming-Haiphong Transport Corridor Multimodal Transport Study’ with moderate improvement in the parallel rail corridor.

141. The cross border traffic between China and Vietnam is also incorporated in the transport model as estimates provided from the ‘Kunming-Haiphong Transport Corridor Multimodal Transport Study’. It is assumed that the institutional issues of vehicular travel crossing the border between China and Vietnam can be resolved prior to the opening of the expressway in 2014. Otherwise it is unlikely that the estimated level of cross border travel is achievable.

142. The model reference case toll as mentioned earlier is 1000 VND per pcu-km. The traffic volumes for this reference case are shown in Table 3.11 by the three major sections by vehicle class and for the more

28 Documents reviewed earlier in this report had wrongly suggested that the existing toll on national highways was around 300 VND

per passenger car. In fact the true value as presented earlier is around 130 VND per km. This reference toll case is thus on the high side when considering the issue of toll affordability.

29 The values in this table represent traffic diversion to the expressway before the inclusion of the diverted traffic.



detailed eight construction packages by pcu in Table 3.12. The eight package classifications as mentioned earlier are also shown in Figure 3.8.

143. The detailed traffic volumes in the vicinity of the new expressway are presented in Figures 3.9 through to 3.12 for the with project expressway and without project expressway in 2014 and 2024 respectively. The traffic volumes in Table 3.11 represent the average traffic on the designated section of the expressway. At the request of ADB, the earlier traffic forecasts undertaken in 2007 have been included as well. However it must be remembered that the earlier forecasts were associated with a different economic scenario.

144. The current average forecast over the whole project in 2024 is 17,44030 pcu. This is in comparison with the VITRANSS 2 forecast of 8,400 pcu in 2030 on this expressway31. The current forecast is thus higher than the VITRANSS 2 forecast.

145. This reference case realizes a daily revenue of 1,263 Million VND in 2014. In order to test the robustness of this revenue estimate, the project revenue was tested at different toll levels in 2014. The plot of revenue against toll is shown in Figure 3.13.

146. For economic evaluation, results from the transport model are input into the economic analysis. The results from the model are prepared in 2014 and 2024 for scenarios that include and exclude the expressway project. Likewise the inclusion or exclusion of generated traffic is an additional sub set of these scenarios.

Table 3.11 Traffic Volumes (Vehicles) on Expressway for Reference Case

Year

2014 2024 Section Description

Car Bus Truck Car Bus Truck

A Noi Bai-Viet Tri 6,700 500 400 24,600 650 840

B Viet Tri-Yen Bai 1,600 450 1,400 7,800 800 2,640

C Yen Bai- Lao Cai 1,500 450 600 7,500 1,000 1,480

2012 2022

A Noi Bai-Viet Tri 12,500 350 1,800 41,900 600 3,800

B Viet Tri-Yen Bai 4,300 300 1,400 17,700 850 3,000

C Yen Bai- Lao Cai 3,500 300 700 11,300 800 2,000


Table 3.12 Traffic Volumes (PCU) on Expressway by Package Number for Reference Case

Year Construction Packages Locality Distance (km)

2014 2024

A-1 Noi Bai-Tam Duong District 0-27 12,800 42,500 A-2 Tam Duong District -Lap Thach District 27-49 4,600 13,700 A-3 Lap Thach District –Cam Khe District 49-80 5,400 12,700 A-4 Cam Khe District -Yen Bai 80-110 6,900 19,400 A-5 Yen Bai –Yan Yen District 110-151 4,900 16,300 A-6 Yan Yen District –Van Ban District 151-190 2,900 9,900 A-7 Van Ban District –Bao Yen District 190-218 1,800 8,000 A-8 Bao Yen District –Lao Cai 218-244 3,000 10,300


30 The average traffic volume in 2022 was 28,600 pcu for the previous work in 2007 with a lower toll and of course a different

economic forecast. 31 VITRANSS 2 assumes at toll of 0.05 USD per pcu km or 890 VND per pcu km.



Figure 3.8 Expressway Construction Packages

Figure 3.9 Daily Traffic Volume (pcu) in 2014 Without New Expressway



Figure 3.10 Daily Traffic Volume (pcu) in 2014 With New Expressway

Figure 3.11 Daily Traffic Volume (pcu) in 2024 Without New Expressway



Figure 3.12 Daily Traffic Volume (pcu) in 2024 With New Expressway

Figure 3.13 Revenue against Toll in 2014



4. COMPONENT 3 - ECONOMIC EVALUATION

4.1 General Approach

147. This Section presents information on the approach to the economic evaluation of the Noi Bai - Lao Cai Expressway Project, followed by the evaluation results. The main items are a description of the evaluation procedures, the establishment of values for the inputs to the evaluation, and presentation of the results of the evaluation. More information on the vehicle operating cost (VOC) and passenger time inputs is given in Appendix 1 Road User Costs.

148. The economic evaluation is very different from the financial evaluation, although there is normally correlation between the results of a financial and an economic appraisal of a project. Both use very similar costs, and the revenue for the financial appraisal and the benefits for the economic appraisal are both related to the volume of traffic using the expressway. However, the revenue and the benefits are not the same. The revenues for the financial appraisal are simply the product of the traffic volume on the expressway and the toll rate per vehicle km. The economic benefits are more complex, being derived from changes in VOC and time costs over the whole road network, and thus include changes not only for expressway users but also for other road users on the rest of the road network.

149. Normally the economic rate of return will be higher than the financial return. This is because toll rates can normally only be set at a high enough level to recover part of the operating and time cost saving that drivers receive when choosing the expressway route as opposed to alternative routes. If the toll rates are set higher than these savings, which are the source of the economic benefits, drivers would not choose to use the expressway. Therefore financial revenue tends to be lower than economic benefit. In addition, the economic evaluation takes into account the benefits to drivers on roads other than the expressway, which result from less congestion on these roads when vehicles divert to the expressway. These benefits can be obtained over a wide area when long-distance projects are involved.

150. The approach used for the study of the economic viability of the Noi Bai - Lao Cai Expressway follows conventional economic appraisal methodology for road construction or improvement schemes. That is, the situation forecast to occur with the Expressway constructed, referred to as the “with project case”, has been compared with the situation expected if the Expressway is not built, referred to as the “base case”. The reduction in road user costs (principally VOC and passenger time costs) for the “with project case” compared with the “base case” provides the benefits used to asses the economic return on the costs of constructing and operating the Expressway.

151. In the economic evaluation carried out in 2007 only one project case was assessed; the project case was the network including the complete Noi Bai - Lao Cai Expressway, and the base case was the network without the Expressway. The project case considered only Phase I of the expressway, that is with the Expressway constructed to four-lane standard from Noi Bai to Yen Bai, and two-lane standard from Yen Bai to Lao Cai. For the review of the evaluation carried out in this study again only Phase I was considered, but the viability of three cases was assessed. By evaluating these three cases the viability of two specific civil works contract packages with particularly high costs to be assessed separately. These two contract packages are Packages 4 and 5, which are located in the central part of the route and together comprise approximately one third of the total length of the Expressway. The three cases assessed are shown below. Case A is the evaluation of the full Expressway, and corresponds to the previous evaluation carried out in 2007. Case B is the evaluation of Packages 4 and 5, assuming that the remainder of the Expressway is in place. Case C is the evaluation of the Expressway without Packages 4 and 5. (Case C was assessed to enable the model results to be checked for consistency).

Investment Evaluated With Project Case Base Case

Case A Full Expressway Full Expressway No Expressway

Case B Packages A4 & A5 Full Expressway Expressway Without Packages A4 & A5

Case C Expressway Without Packages A4 & A5

Expressway Without Packages A4 & A5

No Expressway



152. The costs taken into account are:

� Construction Costs - These comprise the civil construction works for the project, plus associated costs such as mine clearance, design and project management. The costs were based on bid prices for eight contract packages.

� Land and Resettlement Costs - Land costs are included in the form of a value that represents the "opportunity cost" of the land, that is its value for alternative uses if it was not required for the road. Resettlement costs are the cost of replacing buildings within the right of way of the road.

� Operating and Maintenance Costs - These are the annual operating costs of the Expressway, such as routine and periodic road maintenance, toll collection, and administration.

153. Four types of benefit have been quantified and incorporated in the economic evaluation of projects. These are:

� Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC) Savings - These are a basic item in road project evaluations. They are calculated by applying unit prices to the estimated consumption of component items such as fuel, tires, and crew time, for each vehicle type. These consumption levels have been calculated according to the predicted speed, surface condition and geometry of the roads involved, and the characteristics of representative vehicles. The resulting costs per vehicle km are applied to the predicted traffic flow.

� Passenger Time Savings - Passenger time cost savings are obtained when road projects shorten journeys and/or lead to an increase in vehicle speeds, thus reducing journey times. A value of time per hour for each vehicle type is applied as a unit cost to journey times to produce passenger time costs.

� Residual Value - A residual value for the project at the end of the evaluation period has been included, but this has a minor impact on the results because of the effect of discounting on present values.

154. These are the only benefits considered possible to quantify with sufficient accuracy for inclusion in the evaluation. Accident savings were considered, but these are difficult to quantify without accurate data on accident rates in different conditions. Because there is an increase in the number of vehicle km operated on the network, as drivers choose longer routes to take advantage of the higher speeds possible on the Expressway, it is likely that there will be a small overall increase in accident costs despite the low rate on the Expressway. Being uncertain and with a small net effect accident costs have not been included.

155. The costs and benefits are considered over an evaluation period, discounted and expressed in present value terms. This process provides measures of the overall economic returns obtainable from the Project that can be compared to returns from expenditure on other types of road works and other investments in infrastructure.

4.2 Basis for Evaluation

156. The benefits have been calculated from the results of the traffic assignment model described in the previous Section. Trip matrices were assigned to the network for the “base case”, without the Expressway, and for the “with project case”, assuming the Expressway was in place. Traffic flows, vehicle speeds and VOCs were then calculated within the model.

157. Normally road projects are evaluated using a road appraisal model such as the Highway Development and Management Tool HDM-4, which was recommended for use in the ToR for the 2007 Study. HDM-4 simulates road condition for each road section being analyzed, year-by-year, using three sets of sub-models:

� Road Deterioration - which predicts pavement deterioration and surface roughness � Works Effects - which simulate the effects of road works on pavement condition and determines the

corresponding costs



� Road User Effects - which determine costs of vehicle operation and travel time.

158. These sub-models are used to analyze the total transport cost, or the whole life cycle cost. over a specified period. The objective is to minimize these total transport costs by determining the best engineering and economic alternatives for individual road sections.

159. It is possible to consider a new road section, such as the Expressway, using HDM-4, but it is not considered to be an appropriate method. It is clear that the much improved journey times, made possible by use of the Expressway, will change trip routes and therefore traffic levels over a wide area of northern Viet Nam. It is not practical to consider these network-wide traffic flow effects in the detail required using an HDM-4 analysis, and for this reason the road user savings were estimated with the assignment model. However, the VOC calculations carried out in the assignment model were based on data calculated using the Road User Cost Knowledge System (RUCKS), a World Bank spreadsheet model based on the VOC relationships incorporated in HDM-4.

4.3 Evaluation Parameters

160. Annual cost and benefit streams have been considered over a 24 year period from 2010 and discounted to 2009 present values using a discount rate of 12 per cent. The project was assumed to be completed at the end of 2013 with benefits beginning in 2014, giving a benefit period of 20 years. No allowance has been made for any benefits that may be obtained before the opening year, as a result of some sections of the project being completed before the end of the overall construction period. Similarly, no costs to road users caused by disruptions to traffic during the construction period have been included.

161. Two main indicators of economic viability have been calculated from the annual cost and benefit streams: the Net Present Value (NPV) and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR):

� The NPV is the difference between the present value of costs and the present value of benefits. If the NPV is greater than zero the project is considered to be viable. If there are mutually exclusive projects the overall return on each indicated by the NPV can be used to determine the optimum. This is because, if the discount rate used is correct, then the project with the highest NPV is the optimum. A higher NPV indicates that the greater investment required for a higher cost option is justified, because the incremental benefit from the more expensive option must be producing at least the required rate of return on the incremental cost.

� The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is the discount rate at which the present value of benefits equals the present value of improvement costs, and thus provides a measure of the return on an investment that illustrates the rate of return more readily than the NPV criterion. If the IRR exceeds the required rate of return the project is to be considered viable. Normally the NPV and IRR will give the same indications of viability and priority ranking between projects.

162. In cases where benefits are being estimated over a long period of time, as in this study, the NPV and IRR can be usefully augmented by the First Year Rate of Return (FYRR), especially where high levels of benefits in the later years are important in the NPV calculation. The FYRR is the level of net benefits in the opening year of a project expressed as a percentage of the construction costs. If benefits rise each year the project should be timed so that the FYRR in the year of opening is the first year in which it is greater than the discount rate. Implementation in this year will be the optimum year in terms of producing the highest NPV. In its simplest form the FYRR can be expressed as:

100x Cost Capital

YearOpening in Benefit FYRR �

163. Where construction takes place over several years, as in the case of this Project, the FYRR should be calculated more precisely as the benefit in the opening year expressed as a percentage of the capital costs grossed up by the discount rate to the final year of construction. In this form it can be expressed as:



��

�

�� 1jn

0n

n

j

(r/100))C(1

100*BFYRR

where: B is the annual benefit j is the first year of benefit C is the annual expenditure on capital costs r is the discount rate.

164. This refinement to the expression allows the effect of the capital cost being incurred over several years during the construction period to be included in the calculation.

165. The FYRR is only a valid indicator of the optimum year of opening if two conditions are met: annual benefits increase progressively during the life of the project, and benefits are predominantly time and not project related. That is, benefits in any year should not be affected by the year of construction. These conditions are not normally be a problem in using the FYRR for road projects.

166. The FYRR alone cannot be used to select projects. It indicates only the optimum timing for a particular project and not the overall level of returns. It does not even indicate that benefits will continue for a long enough period for the project to be viable. It is possible for a project to have a high FYRR, suggesting immediate implementation, but to be not viable because it has only a short life. For this reason the calculation of a FYRR is normally supplementary, and used for optimizing timing after overall viability has been determined.

167. The overall evaluation procedure, in which the results of the traffic assignment model were combined with the cost information in a spreadsheet model to produce the parameters discussed above, is shown in diagrammatic form in Figure 4.1.

4.4 Prices

168. Costs and benefits have been valued in terms of prices expressed in Vietnamese dong (VND), and then converted to a United States dollar (US$) basis for reporting purposes, using a conversion rate of US$1:VND17,800.

169. The unit prices used for costing purposes and for assessing benefits have been based on prices in Viet Nam in the second half of 2009. There has been significant inflation in Viet Nam since the previous assessment of the Project in 2007. Prices in Vietnam rose significantly in the last few months of 2007, and in 2008 the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 23 percent. In 2009 prices have been more stable and in August 2009 they were no more than 2 percent above those in August 2008. However, prices relevant to this Project did not increase as rapidly in 2008 as is suggested by these figures. Much of the inflation in 2008 was a result of increases in food prices. Also the significant changes in the exchange rate mean that the US$ price index has shown a different pattern. There was no increase in US$ price terms in 2007, an 8 percent increase in 2008 (compared with the 23 percent increase in terms of VND) but then a 9 percent increase in the year to August 2009. The overall impact is an increase of approximately 13 percent in US$ prices terms since mid-2007.

170. The economic evaluation has generally been conducted on the conventional basis of constant prices, that is without taking the impact of inflation on prices into account. In the case of fuel the long-term price was considered, in view of the major changes in fuel prices in recent years that are not consistent with general prices level changes (this is discussed in the Appendix) but constant prices were also used for this item. An exception was made for passenger time values, which were assumed to increase at an annual rate of 3.6 percent over the evaluation period to reflect expected real increases in income levels, that is increases above the level of inflation.

171. A domestic price numeraire has been used. With this economic prices for traded goods are adjusted by applying a shadow exchange rate factor (SERF). For non-tradable goods they are based on the supply price of domestic production, that is the domestic market price less taxes. Labor is valued at its opportunity cost.



TripGeneration

Gravity Model

Modal Split

TrafficAssignment

VietnamRoad

Network

GDP andPopulation

Data

TimeValues

VOC UnitPrices

ExpresswayMaintenance& Operating

Costs

ExpresswayCapitalCosts

OD andTraffic

Surveys

CrossBorderTraffic

MultimodalTransport Study

VITRANSSProcedure

TrafficFlows

Network VOC andTime Costs

Spreadsheet ProjectEvaluation Model

RUCKS VOCModel

DefineRoad

Network

Prepare EvaluationReport

Evaluation andSensitivity Test

Parameters

CUBE Software

Figure 4.1 Traffic Demand Forecasting and Economic Evaluation Procedure

172. The major cost items involved in the study, principally project construction costs, are non-tradable. For the economic evaluation they have been valued at domestic price levels excluding taxes. These are 86 percent of financial prices.

173. The shadow exchange rate factor (SERF) is estimated by comparing the demand for, and supply of, foreign exchange for trade purposes. The SERF of 1.04, derived in the 2007 evaluation was retained.

174. The other area where economic pricing needs to be considered is wage rates. The wages paid to workers plus any benefits related to their employment they receive are the financial price of labor. The shadow wage rate is the economic price of labor. This should reflect the value of the work performed by the labor if it were not involved in the project under consideration. If there is a surplus in the supply of labor, the project may be employing labor that would otherwise be unemployed, and making no contribution to the



economy. In this case the economic value of the labor would be lower than the wage rate. The difference between the market price for labor and the economic price is the shadow wage rate factor (SWRF). With very little unskilled labor involved in the project and skilled labor rates not requiring significant adjustment, no shadow wage rates were applied.

4.5 Costs

4.5.1 Construction Costs

175. The main item of construction costs is the cost of the civil works proposed for the Project, which includes electrical equipment, such as lighting. The other items are project management and supervision costs, the cost of clearing mines and other unexploded ordnance, together with maintenance equipment. A physical contingency allowance was not included as the costs are based on the selected bid prices the eight contract packages. Price contingencies and taxes are not included in the economic costs used in the evaluation. Any expenditure on the project made before 2010, such as the design cost, has been considered as a sunk cost and is not included in the evaluation.

176. The capital cost estimates for the three cases evaluated for Phase I of the Project are shown in Table.4.1 as economic costs. Case A is the full Expressway, with the cost based on the eight contract packages. Case B is the central section of the Expressway, with the costs based on estimates for packages 4 and 5. Case C is for the remainder of the Expressway, with costs based on packages 1-3 and 6-8.

Table 4.1 Economic Capital Costs ($million)

Case A Case B Case C Civil Works 824.39 197.63 626.76 Mine Clearance 4.13 1.38 2.75 Maintenance Equipment. 1.72 0.57 1.15 Project Management 8.24 2.75 5.50 Consulting Services 24.73 8.24 16.49

Total 863.21 210.57 652.64

Source: Consultants

177. It has been assumed that construction will begin in 2010 and will be completed by the end of 2013. The annual distribution of expenditure of these items is shown in Table 4.2.

Table 4.2 Construction Cost Phasing (%)

2010 2011 2012 2013 Total

Civil Works 20% 32% 37% 11% 100% Mine Clearance 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% Maintenance Equipment 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% Project Management 22% 30% 37% 11% 100% Consulting Services 22% 30% 37% 11% 100%

Source: Consultants

4.5.2 Operating and Maintenance Costs

178. The cost of operating and maintaining the expressway is not a major factor in the evaluation of highways of the type under study, but the costs need to be included in the evaluation. Annual costs of toll collection and administration, plus routine maintenance of the road and electrical equipment are estimated at approximately US$4.5 million. In addition, periodic road maintenance in the form of an AC overlay will be required. The cost of this is estimated at US$21 million. These costs are for the whole length of the Expressway, that is Case A. For the other cases they were estimated using the same cost per km. The timing of overlay will depend on the rate of road surface deterioration, but the costs allow for an overlay at five-yearly intervals.



179. Maintenance costs on the routes of the existing road network parallel with the expressway will be reduced slightly as traffic diverts to the expressway, but on other routes they will rise as a result of traffic increasing. This increase is a consequence of generated traffic and also of journey routes being altered to take advantage of the Expressway. Initially there will be a slight fall in the number of vehicle km operated on the existing network, but within the first few years there will be an overall increase. As a result overall maintenance costs on the existing network will increase, but the extra cost will be small enough to be ignored.

4.5.3 Land and Resettlement Costs

180. Land and resettlement costs need to be considered separately. Where there are buildings on land required for the road alignment the cost of replacing these structures needs to be included in the project costs in addition to the land cost. The cost of resettlement will involve mainly constructing new buildings, and these should be included as capital cost at the time the land is acquired for road use. The economic cost can be determined from the financial cost in the same way as road civil works costs. The estimated cost of replacing buildings on land required for this Project is US$42 million. This cost has been assumed to be incurred in the first two years of the construction period. Additional costs to reflect disruption to businesses and compensation were not included.

181. Land costs are very different in economic terms from financial land costs. It is sometimes argued that the cost of land should be zero in an economic evaluation of a road project, because the land is not consumed by the project and, in theory, it can be retrieved at the end of the assumed life of the project. Thus the cost of the land can be considered as a transfer payment, which has no economic value. However this approach is generally not considered to be correct, and land costs are usually included in an economic appraisal. In some cases they are based on the market price of land, and are specified as a single cost in one year at the beginning of the appraisal period. This assumes that land prices will reflect the economic value of land. However the cost of land in economic terms may not be closely related to the financial cost. Land prices are often distorted by the desire to hold land for social reasons and, especially in or near urban areas, as a speculative investment.

182. In an economic appraisal it is preferable to include a value for land that represents the "opportunity cost" of the land, that is its value for alternative uses if it was not required for the road. For roads outside urban areas this value is best expressed as the net value of potential agricultural production on land, as it is usually agricultural land which is ultimately lost. That is, the economic value of land required for road construction is the value of the crops that would be produced on the land to be covered by the road, net of the cost of producing those crops. This cost can be a included as a single initial cost, based accumulated value of lost production over the life of the road project or as an annual land cost, based on the net value of lost production each year.

183. An appropriate economic cost depends on the circumstances in each case. In some cases the economic land cost is zero. An example of this would be if the road passes through forest or mountain areas in which the land to be used for the road alignment would not be used for any other productive purpose. In some cases a road may pass through residential areas, or areas of commercial and other higher value activities, which have high financial land values. In these cases it is still appropriate to consider the economic value in terms of lost agricultural output, because the relocation of buildings will usually result ultimately in a loss of agricultural land.

184. Land values measured in terms of agricultural production will obviously vary according to the appropriate land use in each area and such factors as crop yields and production costs. However it is clear that the values are not large enough to be a major factor in the evaluation; they are small compared with capital costs and potential road user savings. It is therefore not necessary to undertake a detailed valuation in each case. Instead average values can be used to indicate the general magnitude of costs. Data published by the General Statistics Office show that the average value of production from agriculture in 2005 was approximately VND14.0 million per hectare. Allowing for price increases, this gives a 2009 value of US$950 per hectare.

185. The total land acquisition required for the Project is 19.57 m2 million, of which 14.52 m2 million is used for agriculture or other purposes. The remainder is covered by forest or water. Applying the value of production per hectare to the area of land in use gives an annual cost of US$1.38 million. The annual costs have been converted to a capital cost of $9.5 million, based on the present value of the accumulated annual



losses from 2011 to the end of the evaluation period in 2033. This cost was applied for the evaluation of Case A. For the other two cases the cost was estimated using a standard cost per km derived from the total.

4.6 Source of Benefits

186. Reductions to road user costs, that is vehicle operating costs (VOC), passenger time costs, and accident costs, plus the residual value, have been used as the source of benefits. Because the calculation of vehicle speeds is an integral part of the derivation of VOCs it is common for both VOCs and time costs to be calculated together, and jointly referred to as road user costs. However, because time savings are less tangible as benefits than are VOC savings, and were expected to be the largest component of benefits, it was considered desirable to keep them as a separate category of road user costs, so that their impact on the results is apparent. Accident costs can also be considered as a component of road user costs, but again it is desirable to keep them as a separate category.

4.6.1 Vehicle Operating Costs

187. The range of vehicle types is use in Viet Nam is wide and it was decided to define a total of 11 types in the analysis. It would be possible to use a smaller range, especially as the numbers of some vehicle types are not high. However, it is both more accurate and easier to use a wide range of types based on actual vehicles, rather than to develop a small number of compromise vehicle types based on averages, and allocate vehicles identified in traffic surveys to these types. The following vehicle types, as identified in the classified traffic counts, have been adopted for use in the evaluation (more information about the vehicles, and the derivation of their operating costs is given in Appendix 1).

Private Transport Vehicles Public Transport Vehicles Freight Vehicles

Motorcycle Minibus Pick-up Car Small Bus Light Truck 4-wheel Drive Vehicle Large Bus Medium Truck Heavy Truck Articulated Truck

188. Motorcycles will not operate on the Expressway but their operating costs on other roads need to be included in the analysis. (The number of motorcycles far exceeds the combined total of all other motorized vehicles in Viet Nam, and they are important in the analysis.) Non-motorized vehicles could be included. Although they will not operate on the expressway they do operate on the rest of the network. However, their speeds will be not be affected by the traffic flow changes resulting from the Project and so they were not included in the analysis.

189. Operating costs per km were developed for each of the 11 vehicle types using the HDM-4 relationships incorporated in the Road User Cost Knowledge System (RUCKS) model. The HDM-4 model is appropriate, as it includes base vehicles for all the types considered, and there is flexibility in the definition of vehicles that enables them to be defined with values that reflect closely the specifications of vehicles used in Viet Nam. The key characteristics of the vehicles are based on the specified default values in the HDM-4 model, but with adjustment for Vietnamese conditions. The RUCKS model automatically calculates VOCs per km for a road section with specified alignment and surface roughness levels for a range of traffic levels, and therefore for a range of speeds.32

190. The level of VOCs is determined by many factors but the two main determinants are surface roughness and speed. The RUCKS model determines average speeds as part of the vehicle operating cost calculation, taking into account the characteristics of vehicles, road conditions, such as roughness, gradient and curvature, and traffic levels. In this study vehicle speeds were calculated within the assignment model. Therefore the VOCs calculated with RUCKS for each vehicle type and for a range of speeds were used to develop set of coefficients using multiple regression to apply in an equation with the form:

32 RUCKS was made available by the World Bank in 2007. It produces results virtually identical with those produced by the RED

VOC model that was used in the 2007 evaluation, but with RUCKS it is easier to obtain results for different speeds, as required for this study.



VOC = a + b * V + c * V2

Where: VOC is operating cost in $ per km a is a constant b and c are coefficients V is speed (km/h)

191. By expressing VOCs as a function of speed in this way it was possible for costs to be determined directly for each road section within the traffic assignment model, by applying speed/flow relationship to predicted volumes of traffic.

192. Values were derived for the constant and coefficients for the Expressway and for three terrain types, representing the road sections in the existing road network. The definition of geometric standards also included different standards of road surface roughness. The average geometric conditions and roughness assumed for each terrain type are shown in Table 4.3

Table 4.3 General Geometric Standards

Expressway Flat Rolling Hilly

Rise and Fall (m/km) 2 2 10 20

Curvature (deg/km) 5 10 50 300

Roughness (IRI) 2 3 5 6

Source: Consultants

193. All sections of the Expressway were defined as flat terrain as the alignment standard will be consistent with this, even in the Yen Bai - Lao Cai section where the surrounding terrain is mountainous. Actual surface roughness on individual road sections will be different, and will vary over time between applications of periodic maintenance. However there is no reason to assume that roughness levels on the existing network will in general be significantly different from the present state, or between the �base case” and the “project case”. It was considered appropriate in a study such as this to assume a standard road surface roughness, so that priorities could be determined on the basis of traffic flow, road geometry and capacity, which will all be altered by the Project in a way that can be determined. Future roughness levels in the existing network are not certain and it would not be appropriate to consider current roughness levels in detail in this study.

194. The values of the constants and coefficients obtained by this process and used to determine the full vehicle operating costs for the evaluation are shown in Table. 4.4. Another set of coefficients, based on perceived costs, was used in the traffic assignment process. Perceived costs were defined as fuel costs for private transport vehicles, and fuel costs plus vehicle time costs for public transport and freight vehicles. These costs, plus passenger time costs and toll charges, are the basis for route decision, but the full costs are required to determine the road user benefits.

Table 4.4 VOC Coefficients

Expressway Flat a B c a b c

Motorcycle 0.0521 -0.0007 0.0000 Car 0.4038 -0.0045 0.0000 0.4519 -0.0051 0.0000 4-wheel Drive 0.4513 -0.0048 0.0000 0.5120 -0.0055 0.0000 Minibus 0.4705 -0.0064 0.0000 0.5043 -0.0069 0.0000 Small Bus 0.5664 -0.0074 0.0001 0.6059 -0.0080 0.0001 Large Bus 0.6574 -0.0083 0.0001 0.7043 -0.0089 0.0001 Pick-up 0.4142 -0.0060 0.0000 0.4441 -0.0065 0.0000 Light Truck 0.4845 -0.0068 0.0001 0.5184 -0.0072 0.0001 Med. Truck 0.6309 -0.0083 0.0001 0.6758 -0.0089 0.0001 Heavy Truck 1.3479 -0.0255 0.0002 1.4420 -0.0274 0.0003 Artic. Truck 1.5962 -0.0276 0.0003 1.7142 -0.0295 0.0003



Table 4.4 continued

Rolling Hilly a B c a b c

Motorcycle 0.0569 -0.0008 0.0000 0.0604 -0.0010 0.0000 Car 0.4835 -0.0059 0.0000 0.5286 -0.0078 0.0001 4-wheel Drive 0.5541 -0.0064 0.0001 0.6145 -0.0087 0.0001 Minibus 0.5462 -0.0081 0.0001 0.6008 -0.0106 0.0001 Small Bus 0.6587 -0.0095 0.0001 0.7008 -0.0110 0.0001 Large Bus 0.7749 -0.0106 0.0001 0.8430 -0.0129 0.0001 Pick-up 0.4793 -0.0075 0.0001 0.5277 -0.0099 0.0001 Light Truck 0.5683 -0.0087 0.0001 0.6075 -0.0101 0.0001 Med. Truck 0.7332 -0.0100 0.0001 0.8139 -0.0134 0.0001 Heavy Truck 1.5061 -0.0282 0.0003 1.5953 -0.0315 0.0003 Artic. Truck 1.8015 -0.0300 0.0003 1.9534 -0.0356 0.0004

Source: Consultants

4.6.2 Time Savings

195. Travel time savings are obtained when road improvements lead to an increase in vehicle speeds, thus reducing the journey times of passengers. A value of time per hour for each vehicle type is applied as a unit cost to journey times to produce passenger time costs. Because the calculation of vehicle speeds is an integral part of the derivation of VOCs, it is normal to derive both VOCs and passenger time costs together as road user costs. However, because passenger time savings are less tangible as benefits than VOC savings, it is desirable to show then separately so that their impact on the results is apparent.

196. The values of passenger time per hour per vehicle for different vehicle types are shown in Table 4.5, with the derivation of these values discussed in Appendix 1. Where drivers are assumed to be paid crew their time is included as a component of VOCs. Thus no passenger time is included for freight vehicles. These are 2009 values. They were increased at a rate of 3.6 percent per year throughout the evaluation period in line with the forecast real increase in GDP per head used in the traffic projections.

Table 4.5 Value of Passenger Time

Vehicle Type $/hour Motorcycle 0.41 Car 1.81 4-Wheel Drive 1.96 Minibus 2.57 Small Bus 4.88 Large Bus 8.98

Source: Consultants

197. Reducing cargo delay costs can also be considered as a potential source of benefit. Freight in transit is capital and a reduction in travel times can therefore be translated into savings in inventory costs. Thus the saving in time can be valued by the price of capital, that is the rate of interest. In addition reduced travel time can produce benefits in the form of reduced spoilage of perishable goods, or reduced disruption to production resulting from delays in the supply of materials or components. However the savings are normally small and are not normally included in road studies of this type. Accordingly freight time costs have not been included.

4.6.3 Residual Values

198. A residual value for the project at the end of the evaluation period is usually included in road project evaluations, although the impact on the result is small when an evaluation period of 20 years or more is used. This is because of the impact of discounting when costs and benefits are expressed as present values. A residual value is a difficult concept to apply accurately in the evaluation of a road project. If it is



included in an evaluation it is usually calculated simply as a percentage of the original construction cost. Often this will not represent the true value of the project remaining at the end of the evaluation period.

199. A more accurate valuation would often be based on the estimated future net benefits to be obtained beyond the evaluation period, which are not related to the original construction cost. In cases where the road project is expected to be further upgraded to a higher standard at the end of the evaluation period, the residual value can be considered to be the reduction in the cost of upgrading the road to the higher standard, compared with constructing it at the higher standard without the original project having been built.

200. In this study a value of 60 percent of the construction costs has been included as a residual value. This is higher than often applied, especially for a 25-year evaluation period. It reflects the high proportion of the cost of structures, earth works, ground treatment and slope protection in the total cost, which have an economic life well beyond the evaluation period, and the fact that these will be used for the Phase II upgrading, which is expected to be required near the end of the evaluation period. The impact on the result of varying the residual value is minimal.

4.7 Evaluation Process

4.7.1 Definition of Base Case

201. Assumptions about the “base case” are an important part of the analysis. It is possible for the “base case” to be defined as a “do nothing” alternative, in which no road improvement works are assumed to be carried out on the existing road network during the evaluation period. The level of maintenance assumed to be carried out is also important.

202. The assumed “base case” took into account changes to the existing road network that are either currently under construction or are committed. Specifically NH2 and NH32 were assumed to be upgraded to 4-lane standard on the sections nearest to Hanoi. NH70, which is parallel to the northern section of the expressway (from Yen Bai to Lao Cai) is a lower standard 2-lane road through hilly and mountainous terrain for most of its length. The final 8km into Lao Cai have recently been upgraded to 4-lane divided road standard. It has been proposed that this road will be upgraded to 4-lane standard throughout its length, but this is considered to be unlikely if the Expressway is implemented and no change to the configuration of this road has been assumed.

203. It has been assumed that maintenance will be carried out that keeps the Expressway at a low level of surface roughness. Other roads in the network are assumed to be maintained at standards close to the existing level of roughness.

4.7.2 Use of the Traffic Assignment Model

204. With high levels of traffic on some roads in the network and traffic expected to grow rapidly over the evaluation period it was considered essential to use an assignment model to determine traffic flows. Traffic will divert in response to changing congestion levels. The model can take into account not only the benefits that will accrue to users of the Expressway but also the benefits from lower traffic levels to road users remaining on the existing routes, and the costs to road users on other routes where traffic will increase. Overall net benefits will therefore depend on the allocation of traffic between the routes, the operating and time cost on each road section, and on the total length of journeys.

205. The assignment model has been used to determine traffic levels on all road sections in the strategic road network. Road user costs associated with the traffic assignments on the whole network were calculated directly by the model. These have been used as the basis of the economic evaluation.

206. The model was used to estimate VOCs and passenger time costs for 2014, the assumed opening year of the expressway, and for 2024. These were determined for each of the 11 vehicle types and then totaled to give a result for the whole traffic flow. Annual benefit streams over this period were estimated by interpolating between these two years. Benefit levels beyond 2024 were estimated by applying a 5 percent annual growth rate to VOC and time saving benefits.



4.7.3 Types of Traffic

207. In this study VOC and passenger time costs have been calculated on a network-wide basis in the traffic assignment model. Use of such a model complicates the usual method of determining benefits, which is by simply comparing the base case and the with project case.

208. VOC and passenger time costs need to be considered separately for three types of traffic:

Normal Traffic is that which would occur on each road section in both the “base case” and the “project case”. It includes growth in traffic that will occur as result of growth in population and in the economy, but not increases in traffic caused directly by the implementation of the project. Normal traffic will not benefit directly from use of the Expressway (only diverted traffic will benefit in this way). There will be benefits to some normal traffic as a result of the reduction in traffic on existing roads, which will reduce congestion effects. However, on some roads the traffic will increase, and the project will cause an increase in costs to normal traffic.

Diverted Traffic is that which uses a different route as a result of changes to the road network. The effect of route diversion on traffic flows is included in the evaluations using output from the assignment model. This predicts traffic levels on each road section according to the minimum journey cost for the “base case” network, and then for the “project case” network incorporating the Expressway. In both cases it then calculates overall network road user costs. Thus savings from diverting to a lower cost route are automatically included. This is not simply diversion to the Expressway from roads parallel to it. The effect of route diversion on traffic flows over the whole network is included in the evaluations. With a complete road network involved the situation is complicated; with the initial traffic diversion causing secondary and tertiary traffic diversions to occur as traffic adjusts to the changed operating conditions. That is, traffic that does not divert to the Expressway may divert to or from other roads to minimize journey costs as a result of changes in traffic flows that affect speeds and operating costs. All these savings from diverting to a lower cost route have been included.

Generated Traffic is additional traffic which occurs as a response to a reduction in transport costs and travel time caused by the Project. The term is usually applied to traffic which arises directly as a response to the lower price of travel, in the same way that the consumption of almost all goods and services increases when the price falls. Generated trips may be entirely new trips or they may be the result of regular trips being made more frequently. The term induced traffic is less well defined, but is usually considered to refer to generated traffic, plus other additional traffic on a route. This can include, for example, traffic associated with an industrial development that occurs because of the road improvement, or with a change in mode of transport. In this study all induced traffic has been considered to be generated traffic.

209. The benefits to normal, or existing, traffic are simply the difference between their road user costs on the network as defined in the “base case” and the network in the “project case”. If the road improvement results in savings in fuel consumption, tire wear or passenger time for journeys that are going to be made in both cases, then the benefit is clear. The same is true for diverted traffic. If the improvement makes a new route cheaper, and traffic diverts to it from a route that would be used in the “base case”, the full difference in costs between the two routes is the benefit to diverted traffic. The benefits to normal and diverted traffic can be determined together by taking the difference between network-wide road user costs with the “base case” network and with the “with project” network.

210. The benefits to generated traffic are not so obvious. In the “project case” the trips are made and costs are incurred. In the “base case” the trips are not made, so no costs are incurred. Therefore if the generated traffic is added to the traffic flow in the “project case”, and the road user savings are simply difference in costs between the two cases, then generated traffic will always represent a cost. However, generated traffic is usually regarded as producing a benefit. This because it is assumed that the value of the generated trip to the road user must be at least that of the cost of making the trip, otherwise the trip would not be made. This value is taken as the source of the benefit.

211. It can be assumed that for some generated traffic road users, the value of the trip to them is so high that they were on the verge of making the trip before the project. For these road users the benefit can be considered to be the same as for normal traffic; that is, the difference between the cost of making the trip in



the “project case” and what the cost would have been if they had made the trip with the road network in the “base case”. At the other extreme there will be some generated traffic for whom the value their trip is only just equal to the cost of making the journey in the “project case”. For them there is no economic benefit; the cost of the trip equals the value of the trip, leaving no consumer surplus as a benefit. Other generated traffic road users will range between these two extremes. For simplicity it is usually assumed that the demand curve for transport is a straight line, and the average benefit to generated traffic can then be assumed to be equal to half the difference in costs. Therefore the benefits to generated traffic are assumed to be half of those to normal traffic. This convention has been adopted in this study.

212. It should be noted that to be theoretically correct the generated traffic benefits should be calculated not from the economic VOCs used for normal and diverted traffic, but from perceived VOCs in financial terms. This is because the basis for the benefit is the assumption that the road users will make additional trips if they consider the value of the trip worth the cost, and the appropriate cost is the therefore perceived financial cost. Another issue is that it is implicitly assumed that, if the generated trips were not made, the users would not be making alternative trips that were of value to them. In this study the conventional approach of using total economic VOCs and assuming no alternative trips options has been used. The generated traffic benefits should therefore be considered as being only indicative of their true economic value.

213. The procedure used to determine generated traffic benefits using output from the assignment model is described in Appendix 1.

4.8 Results

4.8.1 Overall Results

214. The results for the evaluation of the three cases tested are summarized in Table 4.8.

Table 4.8 Summary of Evaluation Results

EIRR (%)

NPV (US$ mill)

Case A 18.8 676.7

Case B 28.2 651.1

Case C 12.5 25.5

Source: Consultants

215. The economic evaluation for Case C, that is the Noi Bai – Lao Cai Expressway without Packages 4 and 5, shows that without these sections it just reaches the usual threshold of viability. It has an EIRR of 12.5% and an NPV of US$25.5 million. The annual cost and benefit streams are shown in Table 4.11. (This result, and all the others discussed in this section of the report, is based on the predicted traffic flows with a toll level of VND1000 per km.) Case C is only marginally viable despite significant VOC savings from the high traffic flows and congestion on the existing network at the southern end of the Expressway.

216. The economic evaluation for Case B, that is completing the Noi Bai – Lao Cai Expressway by adding Packages 4 and 5 to the other sections, shows a high EIRR of 28.2%, and an NPV of US$651.1 million, making it highly viable. The annual cost and benefit streams are shown in Table 4.10. It is not surprising that Case B has a much higher EIRR than Case C. It is the "missing link" in the Expressway that enables the full benefits to be obtained, but without incurring the construction costs that have already been expended in Case C. The whole route is clearly more attractive to road users than the two unconnected sections of Case C, and when in place it produces significantly different traffic patterns.

217. With Case B there are significant VOC savings to both normal and generated traffic, with passenger time savings growing to very high levels. The higher speeds on the Expressway directly provide large time savings. VOC savings are depressed from the levels often associated with expressway projects because of the effect of the substantial additional vehicle km operated on the whole network in the “project case” compared with the “base case”, even without including generated traffic. This is because road users will



make longer journeys to utilize the Expressway. In addition the higher speeds on the expressway result in higher VOCs than the minimum cost.

218. The economic evaluation for Case A, that is the whole Noi Bai – Lao Cai Expressway, can be determined from the results of Case B and Case C; the benefits and costs for Case A will be the same as the combined benefits and costs for Case B and Case C. (In this study the three Cases were evaluated separately for purposes of checking the procedure and results.) The rate of return for Case A must be between those for Case A and Case B, it is in effect an average of these two.

219. Case A, the full expressway, shows an EIRR of 18.8%, and an NPV of US$676.7 million, making it clearly viable. The annual cost and benefit streams are shown in Table 4.9.

220. When the full Expressway is considered as a single project, as with Case A, the largest source of benefits initially is the value of VOC savings to normal and diverted traffic. VOC savings to generated traffic are negative at first, but grow to be significant. When generated traffic is included, a substantial number of additional vehicle km are operated on the existing network by 2024.

221. Although the generated traffic itself always receives benefits, the analysis takes into account the fact that this extra traffic imposes costs on all road users due to congestion effects and lower speeds. This impact is incorporated in the generated traffic benefits, which are shown net of the costs imposed on existing road users. In addition there are substantial additional vehicle km operated on the whole network in the “project” case compared with the “base case”, even without including generated traffic. This is because road users will make longer journeys to utilize the Expressway.

222. With the full Expressway passenger time savings increase to very high levels. This results from the much higher speeds on the Expressway providing a significant reduction in journey times, and the assumption of the value of time per hour increasing in real terms over the evaluation period in line with the predicted increase in GDP per head.

223. The first year rate of return analysis shows that a 7.2% return is achieved in 2014. The first year that 12% is obtained is 2016, suggesting that the optimum timing would be to delay the Project by two years.

4.8.2 Sensitivity Tests

224. The impact of adjusting some of the key input values has been tested to show the sensitivity of the EIRR of Case A to the changes. The EIRR was analyzed with respect to changes in the benefit and cost streams. The tests applied were:

1. Base Case

2. Construction costs increased 10%

3. Overall benefits decreased by 10%

4. Toll rates increased to VND1,200 per km

5. Toll rates reduced to VND800 per km

6. Completion delayed by 1 year

7. Combination of 2 and 3

225. The results are shown in Table 4.12. The results of sensitivity analysis show the robustness of the Project’s economic viability to changes in the key variables—construction costs, 1-year delay in completion, and toll rates do not affect the rate of return significantly. A five-year implementation period, causing a one-year delay in opening the project, would only decrease the EIRR slightly because of the relatively low benefits in the first few years of operation. A higher toll would reduce the EIRR, but even at VND1200/km the Project is viable with an EIRR of 15.5%. A lower toll rate of VND800/km results in more traffic using the Expressway and a significant; higher rate of return of 22.3%. Increasing costs by 10% and simultaneously reducing benefits by 10% reduces the IRR to 16.3%.



Table 4.12 Sensitivity Analysis Results

Scenario EIRR 1 Base Case 18.8% 2 Costs +10% 17.8% 3 Benefits -10% 17.7% 4 Toll VND1200/km 15.9% 5 Toll VND 800/km 22.7% 6 Delay of 1 Year 18.2% 7 Combination of 2 and 3 16.8%

Source: Consultants



Tabl

e 4.

9 N

oi B

ai -

Lao

Cai

Hig

hway

Pro

ject

: Eco

nom

ic E

valu

atio

n w

ith T

raffi

c B

ased

on

VND

1000

/km

Tol

l: C

ASE

A

Cos

ts ($

mill)

Ben

efits

($m

ill)

Net

($m

ill)

FYR

R (%

)

Civ

il W

orks

Oth

er C

apita

lLa

nd &

Res

ett.

O&

MN

orm

al a

nd D

iver

ted

Gen

erat

ed

VOC

Tim

eV

OC

Tim

e20

0920

10 1

64.8

8 1

1.38

21.

00- 1

97.2

620

11 2

63.8

0 9

.89

30.

50- 3

04.2

020

12 3

05.0

2 1

2.20

- 317

.22

2013

90.

68 5

.35

- 96.

0320

14 4

.57

57.

69 3

3.23

- 5.1

3- 1

.36

79.

84 7

.220

15 4

.57

63.

74 3

3.10

- 0.6

7 2

1.39

112

.98

10.

220

16 4

.57

69.

79 3

2.97

3.7

8 4

4.14

146

.11

13.

220

17 4

.57

75.

85 3

2.84

8.2

4 6

6.90

179

.25

16.

120

18 4

.57

81.

90 3

2.71

12.

70 8

9.65

212

.38

19.

120

19 2

5.88

87.

95 3

2.58

17.

15 1

12.4

0 2

24.2

1 2

0.2

2020

4.5

7 9

4.01

32.

45 2

1.61

135

.16

278

.65

25.

120

21 4

.57

100

.06

32.

32 2

6.07

157

.91

311

.79

28.

120

22 4

.57

106

.12

32.

19 3

0.52

180

.67

344

.92

31.

120

23 4

.57

112

.17

32.

06 3

4.98

203

.42

378

.06

34.

120

24 2

5.88

118

.22

31.

93 3

9.44

226

.17

389

.88

35.

120

25 4

.57

124

.13

35.

12 4

1.41

248

.79

444

.88

40.

120

26 4

.57

130

.34

38.

63 4

3.48

273

.67

481

.55

43.

420

27 4

.57

136

.86

42.

50 4

5.65

301

.04

521

.47

47.

020

28 4

.57

143

.70

46.

74 4

7.94

331

.14

564

.95

50.

920

29 2

5.88

150

.89

51.

42 5

0.33

364

.26

591

.02

53.

220

30 4

.57

158

.43

56.

56 5

2.85

400

.68

663

.95

59.

820

31 4

.57

166

.35

62.

22 5

5.49

440

.75

720

.24

64.

920

32 4

.57

174

.67

68.

44 5

8.27

484

.82

781

.63

70.

420

33- 4

94.6

3 4

.57

183

.40

75.

28 6

1.18

533

.31

1,3

43.2

3 1

21.0

7,8

56.2

9

E

cono

mic

Net

Pre

sent

Val

ue ($

mill

) 6

76.6

5

E

cono

mic

Inte

rnal

Rat

e of

Ret

urn

18.8

%O

&M =

ope

ratio

n an

d m

aint

enan

ce, V

OC

= v

ehic

le o

pera

ting

cost

, FY

RR

= fi

rst y

ear r

ate

of re

turn



Tabl

e 4.

10 N

oi B

ai -

Lao

Cai

Hig

hway

Pro

ject

: Eco

nom

ic E

valu

atio

n w

ith T

raffi

c B

ased

on

VND

1000

/km

Tol

l: C

ASE

B

Cos

ts ($

mill)

Ben

efits

($m

ill)

Net

($m

ill)

FYR

R (%

)

Civ

il W

orks

Oth

er C

apita

lLa

nd &

Res

ett.

O&

MN

orm

al a

nd D

iver

ted

Gen

erat

ed

VOC

Tim

eV

OC

Tim

e20

0920

10 3

9.53

3.7

9 7

.00

- 50.

3220

11 6

3.24

3.3

0 1

0.20

- 76.

7420

12 7

3.12

4.0

7- 7

7.19

2013

21.

74 1

.78

- 23.

5220

14 1

.52

1.2

5 1

3.31

- 1.1

2- 0

.01

11.

90 4

.320

15 1

.52

2.9

3 2

4.04

0.7

6 1

1.60

37.

81 1

3.7

2016

1.5

2 4

.62

34.

77 2

.64

23.

22 6

3.72

23.

020

17 1

.52

6.3

1 4

5.50

4.5

2 3

4.83

89.

63 3

2.4

2018

1.5

2 7

.99

56.

24 6

.40

46.

44 1

15.5

5 4

1.7

2019

8.6

3 9

.68

66.

97 8

.28

58.

06 1

34.3

5 4

8.5

2020

1.5

2 1

1.37

77.

70 1

0.16

69.

67 1

67.3

7 6

0.4

2021

1.5

2 1

3.05

88.

43 1

2.03

81.

28 1

93.2

8 6

9.8

2022

1.5

2 1

4.74

99.

17 1

3.91

92.

90 2

19.1

9 7

9.1

2023

1.5

2 1

6.42

109

.90

15.

79 1

04.5

1 2

45.1

0 8

8.5

2024

8.6

3 1

8.11

120

.63

17.

67 1

16.1

2 2

63.9

1 9

5.3

2025

1.5

2 1

9.02

132

.69

18.

55 1

27.7

4 2

96.4

8 1

07.1

2026

1.5

2 1

9.97

145

.96

19.

48 1

40.5

1 3

24.4

0 1

17.1

2027

1.5

2 2

0.97

160

.56

20.

46 1

54.5

6 3

55.0

2 1

28.2

2028

1.5

2 2

2.01

176

.62

21.

48 1

70.0

2 3

88.6

0 1

40.3

2029

8.6

3 2

3.11

194

.28

22.

55 1

87.0

2 4

18.3

3 1

51.1

2030

1.5

2 2

4.27

213

.70

23.

68 2

05.7

2 4

65.8

5 1

68.2

2031

1.5

2 2

5.48

235

.08

24.

86 2

26.2

9 5

10.1

9 1

84.2

2032

1.5

2 2

6.76

258

.58

26.

11 2

48.9

2 5

58.8

4 2

01.8

2033

- 118

.58

1.5

2 2

8.10

284

.44

27.

41 2

73.8

1 7

30.8

2 2

63.9

5,3

62.5

6

Eco

nom

ic N

et P

rese

nt V

alue

($m

ill) 6

51.1

2

Eco

nom

ic In

tern

al R

ate

of R

etur

n 28

.2%

O&M

= o

pera

tion

and

mai

nten

ance

, VO

C =

veh

icle

ope

ratin

g co

st, F

YR

R =

firs

t yea

r rat

e of

retu

rn



Tabl

e 4.

11 N

oi B

ai -

Lao

Cai

Hig

hway

Pro

ject

: Eco

nom

ic E

valu

atio

n w

ith T

raffi

c B

ased

on

VND

1000

/km

Tol

l: C

ASE

C

Cos

ts ($

mill)

Ben

efits

($m

ill)

Net

($m

ill)

FYR

R (%

)

Civ

il W

orks

Oth

er C

apita

lLa

nd &

Res

ett.

O&

MN

orm

al a

nd D

iver

ted

Gen

erat

ed

VOC

Tim

eV

OC

Tim

e20

0920

10 1

25.3

5 7

.59

14.

00- 1

46.9

420

11 2

00.5

6 6

.60

20.

30- 2

27.4

620

12 2

31.9

0 8

.13

- 240

.03

2013

68.

94 3

.56

- 72.

5120

14 3

.05

56.

44 1

9.92

- 4.0

2- 1

.35

67.

94 8

.220

15 3

.05

60.

81 9

.06

- 1.4

4 9

.79

75.

17 9

.020

16 3

.05

65.

17- 1

.81

1.1

4 2

0.93

82.

39 9

.920

17 3

.05

69.

54- 1

2.67

3.7

2 3

2.07

89.

61 1

0.8

2018

3.0

5 7

3.91

- 23.

53 6

.30

43.

21 9

6.84

11.

620

19 1

7.25

78.

28- 3

4.39

8.8

8 5

4.35

89.

86 1

0.8

2020

3.0

5 8

2.64

- 45.

25 1

1.45

65.

49 1

11.2

8 1

3.4

2021

3.0

5 8

7.01

- 56.

12 1

4.03

76.

63 1

18.5

1 1

4.2

2022

3.0

5 9

1.38

- 66.

98 1

6.61

87.

77 1

25.7

3 1

5.1

2023

3.0

5 9

5.74

- 77.

84 1

9.19

98.

91 1

32.9

6 1

6.0

2024

17.

25 1

00.1

1- 8

8.70

21.

77 1

10.0

5 1

25.9

8 1

5.1

2025

3.0

5 1

05.1

2- 9

7.57

22.

86 1

21.0

6 1

48.4

1 1

7.8

2026

3.0

5 1

10.3

7- 1

07.3

3 2

4.00

133

.16

157

.16

18.

920

27 3

.05

115

.89

- 118

.06

25.

20 1

46.4

8 1

66.4

6 2

0.0

2028

3.0

5 1

21.6

9- 1

29.8

7 2

6.46

161

.13

176

.35

21.

220

29 1

7.25

127

.77

- 142

.86

27.

78 1

77.2

4 1

72.6

8 2

0.7

2030

3.0

5 1

34.1

6- 1

57.1

4 2

9.17

194

.96

198

.10

23.

820

31 3

.05

140

.87

- 172

.86

30.

63 2

14.4

6 2

10.0

5 2

5.2

2032

3.0

5 1

47.9

1- 1

90.1

4 3

2.16

235

.90

222

.78

26.

720

33- 3

76.0

5 3

.05

155

.31

- 209

.16

33.

77 2

59.4

9 6

12.4

2 7

3.5

2,4

93.7

3

Eco

nom

ic N

et P

rese

nt V

alue

($m

ill)

25.

54

Eco

nom

ic In

tern

al R

ate

of R

etur

n 12

.5%

O&M

= o

pera

tion

and

mai

nten

ance

, VO

C =

veh

icle

ope

ratin

g co

st, F

YR

R =

firs

t yea

r rat

e of

retu

rn



5. COMPONENT 4 - FINANCIAL EVALUATION

5.1 General

226. The review of financial analysis in this study aims at review of financial viability based on the reviewed project cost and the reviewed traffic forecast results. Taking the actual situation of construction progress of the Project Expressway into consideration, the following cases are assumed for financial analysis:

Case 1: Full Expressway Case 2: Partial Expressway excluding the section of Package A4 and A5

227. The Project costs and the revenues in accordance with the two cases are set up for the financial analysis.

228. The financial projections are presented in current price terms, which are taking the potential impact of domestic and foreign inflation into account, assuming domestic and international inflation rates of 6% and 0.5% per annum, respectively over the analysis period.

5.2 Project Cost

5.2.1 Construction cost

229. Based on the reviewed cost estimates, the Project construction costs for the case of full expressway and partial expressway are shown in Tables below:

230. The amounts both of physical contingency and price contingency have been already included in the stage of cost estimates for each cost item, therefore the amount contingencies are shown in zero.

Table 5.1 Estimated Project Construction Cost (Full Expressway Case)

Foreign

Currency Local Currency

Total (US$ 1,000)

Civil Works 508,898 416,371 925,269

Mine Clearance 311 799 1,110

Maintenance Equipment 1,200 800 2,000

Electric, Tolling System 15,999 15,999 31,998

Land Acquisition and Resettlement 0 101,151 101,151

Incremental Administration Cost 0 8,400 8,400

Consulting Services 26,970 28 26,998

(Base Cost) 553,378 543,548 1,096,926

Physical Contingency 0 00 0

Price Contingency 0 0 0

Base Cost + Physical Cntgcy+ Price Cntgcy. 553,378 543,548 1,096,926

Source: Estimated by Consultants Note: Amounts of physical contingency and price contingency have been already included estimated

cost for each cost item.



Table 5.2 Estimated Project Construction Cost (Partial Expressway Case)

Foreign Currency

Local Currency Total (US$ 1,000)

Civil Works 386,763 316,442 703,205 Mine Clearance 208 536 744 Maintenance Equipment 804 536 1,340 Electric, Tolling System 10,719 10,719 21,438 Land Acquisition and Resettlement 0 67,771 67,771 Incremental Administration Cost 0 5,628 5,628 Consulting Services 18,070 19 18,089 (Base Cost) 416,564 401,651 818,215 Physical Contingency 0 0 0 Price Contingency 0 0 0 Base Cost + Physical Cntgcy+ Price Cntgcy. 416,564 401,651 818,215

Source: Estimated by Consultants Note: Amounts of physical contingency and price contingency have been already included estimated

cost for each cost item.

5.2.2 O/M costs

231. The operation and maintenance (O/M) costs comprising two components of the routine O/M costs and the periodical maintenance cost are assumed based on the results of engineering study. In the previous study, the routine O/M costs at 2007 price were approximately US$ 4.57 million per annum, and the periodical maintenance including overlay was US$ 21.31 million every 8 years.

232. In this review study, the O/M costs at 2009 price are estimated using the changing ratio of the consumer price index between 2007 and 2009. According to the statistical data of consumer price index, the changing ratio of the consumer price index between 2007 and 2009 is estimated to be approximately 1.3. Consequently, the routine O/M costs at 2009 price are estimated to be approximately US$ 5.95 million per annum. The periodical maintenance including overlay at 2009 price is estimated to be US$ 27.70 million The O/M costs are assumed to be increased in accordance with the inflation rate of 6% per annum. While the above figures are for the case of the full expressway, those in the case of the partial expressway are; US$ 3.98 and 18.56 million for the routine O/M costs and the periodical maintenance cost, respectively.

5.2.3 Depreciation

233. The life expectancy of fixed assets is assumed to be 40 years, taking regulations, the actual physical duration, and sample cases in other countries into account. Based on the depreciation regulation of MOF (The Finance Minister’s Decision No. 206/2003/QD-BTC of December 12, 2003 “Regulation of management, Use and Depreciation of Fixed assets”, the life expectancy of fixed assets for a highway is stipulated to be 20 years. According to the financial regulation of VEC, the depreciation period for fixed assets such as expressway has minimum depreciation duration equivalent to the payback period of the project and current regulation on depreciation. When considering the payback period of the OCR loan, this would give a minimum period of 25 to 30 years. On the other hand, the actual physical life expectancy of assets is considered to be much longer. The life expectancy of highway structure in tax law is 30 to 60 years in Japan, and 39 years in USA.

234. Regarding the maintenance equipment and the facilities of electric and tolling system, the life expectance of 10 years are assumed. Those assets are scheduled to be repurchased every 10 years.

5.2.4 VEC’s corporate tax

235. The corporate tax rate of 25% is assumed, in line with corporate tax law.



5.2.5 Exchange rate

236. The assumed exchange rate is VND 17,800 per US$

5.3 Financing Plan

237. It is assumed that Project cost will be funded by ADB’s OCR, ADF, and VEC’s bond as a base case, or subsidy as an alternative case. For ADB’s OCR and ADF loans, VEC will borrow the funds from Ministry of Finance on an on-lending basis. The on-lending premium of 0.2% per annum additional to the interest rate of ADB loans is set up based on the information of recent on-lending agreement between MOF and VEC.

238. The financing options are assumed as shown in Table below:

Table 5.3 Financing Plan

Plan (Base) Plan (Alternative) Loan OCR (*) Re-Lending Re-Lending ADF (*) Re-Lending Re-Lending Counterpart Fund Bond (**) VEC’s Bond (None) Subsidy (***) (None) (Subsidy)

Note: (*) OCR and ADF: VEC will borrow from Ministry of Finance through re-lending. (**) Bond: VEC will issue bond with Government guarantee. (***) Subsidy: Government subsidy. Assumed in an alternative case.

239. Setting up for financing is: ADF of US$ 200 million, and the counterpart fund of US$ 120 million.

240. Regarding OCR, the loan amount is sub-divided into two components of OCR (Original) and OCR (Supplemental).

241. The loan amount of OCR (Original) is set up as the amount of US$ 896 million after FCDD without relending fee. When the total required OCR amount is less than the amount of US$ 896 million, the loan amount of OCR (Original) is assumed to be equivalent to the total required OCR amount. The loan amount of OCR (Supplemental) is estimated as a remaining balance deducting the OCR (Original) amount from the total required OCR amount

242. The assumed loan conditions are shown in the following Table:

Table 5.4 Assumed Loan Conditions

Loan Assumed Condition ADF Interest rate: 1.0% during grace period, and 1.5% for the remaining years

Total Repayment 32 years (Grace period: 8 years and net repayment of 24 years) Re-Lending interest rate 0.2% After re-lending 1.2% during grace period, and 1.7% for the remaining years. Amortization schedule: equal amortization

OCR (Original) Interest rate: 2.92% (5 Years Libor 2.72% plus Spread 0.2%) Re-Lending interest rate (0.2%) Total Repayment 27 years (Grace period: 7 years and net repayment of 20 years) After re-lending interest rate : 3.12% Commitment charge: 0.15% on un-disbursed balance. Amortization schedule: Installment schedule is determined using annuity basis with 10% discount rate.

OCR (Supplemental) Interest rate: 2.92% (5 Years Libor 2.72% plus Spread 0.2%) Re-Lending interest rate (0.2%) Total Repayment 25 years (Grace period: 5 years and net repayment of 20 years) After re-lending interest rate : 3.12% Commitment charge: 0.15% on un-disbursed balance. Amortization schedule: Installment schedule is determined using annuity basis with 10% discount rate.

Bond 15 Years bond with interest rate of 11% (The interest rate during construction period is capitalized.)



5.4 Revenues

243. The daily revenues are estimated in the traffic model (since traffic levels are depended on the selected toll rate) by multiplying the assumed rate and the estimated daily PCU kilometers. The daily revenues are converted to annual revenues by using the number of days of 365. The VND currency basis revenues are converted to US$ currency basis revenues by using assumed exchange rate (VND 17,800 per US$). The depreciation of VND against to US$ is assumed at 1.3% per annum, considering the recent years’ trend of exchange rates between VND and US$. The toll revenues are assumed to be increased every five years in accordance with the inflation rate of 6% per annum. The planning years for demand forecast are year 2014, 2024 and 2034. The traffic volumes of remaining years are estimated by linear interpolation.

244. VAT (10%) is assumed to be charged to the toll revenues.

245. Regarding projected traffic volumes, capacity saturation for Highway Section A and Section C is considered and traffic volume is capped once capacity is reached.

5.5 Background on Toll Rate

5.5.1 Existing Toll Roads

246. In Vietnam, at present there is no comparable expressway to analyze the level of toll. Some sections of national highway are tolled. The toll for national highways is set according to the decree of Ministry of Finance, as shown in the following Table:

Table 5.5 Toll for National Highways

VND per One Time

1 Two, Three Wheel Motorcycle and Equivalent 1,000

2 Tractor and Equivalent 4,000

3 Passenger Vehicle with less than 12 seats, Freight Vehicle with loading capacity under 2 ton and Public Bus

10,000

4 Passenger Vehicle with less than 12 to 30 seats, Freight Vehicle with loading capacity 2 to 4 ton

15,000

5 Passenger Vehicle with over 31 seats, Freight Vehicle with loading capacity 4 to 10 ton 22,000

6 Freight Vehicle with loading capacity 10 to 18 ton and Container 20 ft Truck 40,000

7 Freight Vehicle with loading capacity over 18 ton and Container 40 ft Truck 80,000

Source: Circular 90/2004/TT-BTC, as of September 7 2004, Guiding the Regime of Road Toll Collection, Payment, Management and Use, MOF

5.5.2 Other Studies

247. There are recent study reports regarding national expressway projects. The assumed tolls in each study report are shown in following Table:



Table 5.6 Assumed Toll per Km for Passenger Car for each Study Reports

Study Assumed Toll per Km (Passenger

Car) (VND per Km)

The Economic and Financial Study for the Kunming – Haiphong Expressway Project (Nov. 2005)

667

Hanoi – Viet Tri – Lao Cai Expressway Project FS (TEDI) (Jan. 2006) 286

Kunming – Haiphong Transport Corridor Multimodal Transport Study (Feb. 2006) 160

Expressway Network Development Plan Project (FINNROAD) (March 2007) 400

Noi Bai – Lao Cai Expressway Project (ADB) (September 2007) 600, 700, 800, 1000 in line with financing plan

HCMC – Long Thanh – Dau Giay Expressway Project (ADB) (September 2008) 900

Source: Each Study Report

248. The spacing of toll gates is stipulated to be every 70 km in theory. As a practical example, current toll tolls on a selected section of National Highway No.1 south from Hanoi average VND 134 per km for a passenger car (a 372 km section is served by 5 toll gates each charging VND 10,000.)

5.5.3 Regulations of Tolls

249. According to the Circular 90/2004/TT-BTC, as of September 7 2004, Guiding the Regime of Road Toll Collection, Payment, Management and Use, MOF, the level of toll rates applicable to roads invested by the state with loan capital and subject to toll collection for capital recovery shall not exceed twice the toll rates applicable to roads with tolls for operation and maintenance revenue only.

250. However, as advised by VEC under current guidelines higher rates may be charged.

251. In a letter to the Prime Minister No. 3321/BGTVT-KHDT of June 2006, MOT requested approval of the Noi Bai – Lao Cai Highway project, and inclused in the letter was a suggestion to use a yoll rate of VND 800 to 1,000 per kilometer. The Prime Minister’s office replied in letter 1531/TTg-CN of September 28 2006 giving approval for the project as proposed in MOT’s letter.

252. Furthermore, recently, Decision of Prime Minister on Piloting Some Mechanism, Policies Applied to Expressway Investment Operation Project of the Employer – Vietnam Expressway Corporation (VEC), 1202/QD-TTg dated September 10, 2007 has been issued. This Decision allows VEC to decide the appropriate toll level to ensure repayment requirement of the project (except for the project, which are requested by the authorized state-owned agency to apply the toll level regulated by the Government).

5.5.4 Toll Rates in China

253. The proposed Noi Bai – Lao Cai highway will form an integral part of an international transport corridor linking with Kunming in PRC., and will be competing with other transport routes in PRC. Therefore, compatibility of the toll level to those on expressway in the PRC is required. According to study reports of recent expressway projects in PRC (ADB Study Reports of Heilongiang Road Network Development Project, June 2006 and Southern Gansu Roads Development Project, Nov 2006) , toll rates for proposed projects are on 0.35 CNY per passenger car per km, which is approximately equivalent to US$ 0.05 or VND 700 to 800.

5.6 Results of Financial Analysis

5.6.1 Total Project Cost including FCDD

254. The total project cost including FCDD (Financing charge during development) is estimated as shown in the following Table:



Table 5.7 Total Project Cost including FCDD

(1) Base Financing Plan (Full Expressway Case: Without Re-Lending Fee and With Re-Lending Fee)

(Million US$)

OCR (Original)

OCR (Supplemental)

OCR (Total)

ADF Bond Total

Financing 786.9 0.0 786.9 190.1 120.0 1,096.9

FCDD (Without Re-Lending Fee) 100.2 0.0 100.2 9.9 46.2 156.3

FCDD (With Re-Lending Fee) 107.2 0.0 107.2 12.0 46.2 165.3

Total (Without Re-Lending Fee) 887.1 0.0 887.1 200.0 166.2 1,253.3

Total (With Re-Lending Fee) 894.0 0.0 894.0 202.0 166.2 1,262.3

(2) Alternative Financing Plan (Full Expressway Case: Without Re-Lending Fee and With Re-Lending Fee)

(Million US$)

OCR (Original)

OCR (Supplemental)

OCR (Total)

ADF Subsidy Total

Financing 786.9 0.0 786.9 190.1 120.0 1,096.9

FCDD (Without Re-Lending Fee) 100.2 0.0 100.2 9.9 0.0 110.1

FCDD (With Re-Lending Fee) 107.2 0.0 107.2 12.0 0.0 119.1

Total (Without Re-Lending Fee) 887.1 0.0 887.1 200.0 120.0 1,207.1

Total ( With Re-Lending Fee) 894.0 0.0 894.0 202.0 120.0 1,216.1.

Source: Estimated by Consultants. Note: FCDD: financial charge during development

5.6.2 Financial Analysis Results

255. The financial analysis is made for the cases of the full expressway and the partial expressway, and for the base financing plan and the alternative financing plan, with the toll rate of VND 1,000 to 1,500 per vehicle km for passenger car.

256. The results of project financial analysis are summarized in the following Table and the detail overleaf.

257. While in the case of base financing plan, mainly due to the lower revenues reflecting the lower reviewed traffic forecast volume and the financial costs related to bond, the financial analysis results show severe situations for every toll rate case, in the case of the alternative financing plan with subsidy, cash flow situation has been improved thanks to the decreased financial costs through the introducing of subsidy. Consequently, the alternative financing plan with subsidy is recommendable in order to improve financial viability.

258. When considering the two cases of the full expressway case and the partial expressway case, the former shows rather sound financial situation than the latter. This means that the implementation of the full expressway be relatively viable compared to the case of the partial expressway.



Table 5.8 Project Financial Analysis Results

(1) Base Financing Plan (With Bond)

<Full Expressway Case>

Toll Rate Per

Vehicle km for

Passenger car

Accumu- lated Net Cash flow (Positive

or Negative)

Negative Equity

(Positiveor

Negative)

First Year of Surplus in Accumu

lated Surplus in Cash flow

FIRR WACC Mini- mum DSCR

Average DSCR

1,000 Negative (to 2030)

Negative (to 2027)

2031 3.5% 1.64% 0.27 1.43


Negative (to 2026)

2030 3.9% 0.35 1.56


Negative (to 2026)

2030 3.7% 0.29 1.49


Negative (to 2026)

2030 3.9% 0.33 1.55


Negative (to 2026)

2029 4.1% 0.37 1.61


Negative (to 2027)

2030 3.7% 0.29 1.49

<Partial Expressway Case>

Toll Rate Per

Vehicle km for

Passenger car


or Negative)

Negative Equity

(Positive or

Negative)


lated Surplus in Cash

flow


Average DSCR


Negative (to 2032)

2038 1.8% 1.58% 0.00 0.96


Negative (to 2032)

2037 1.9% 0.02 0.99


Negative (to 2031)

2036 2.2% 0.07 1.06


Negative (to 2030)

2035 2.5% 0.12 1.14


Negative (to 2030)

2035 2.5% 0.12 1.14


Negative (to 2032)

2037 2.0% 0.04 1.01

Source: Estimated by Consultants. Note: Accumulated net cashflow: Positive or Negative: Positive stands for “No government subsidy

will be required”. Negative stands for “Government subsidy will be required”. Negative Equity in balance Sheet: Positive or Negative: Positive stands for “Equity will remain positive”. Negative stands for “Equity will show negative even once”

For Full Expressway Case, while the revenue maximum in year 2014 is located in the case of toll rate of VND 1,100, the revenue maximum in year 2024 is located in the case of toll rate of VND 1,400. So that, less parallel results among the cases by toll rate are observed.



(2) Alternative Financing Plan (With Subsidy)

<Full Expressway Case>

Toll Rate Per

Vehicle km for

Passenger car


or Negative)

Negative Equity

(Positiveor

Negative)




Average DSCR

1,000 Negative (2021, 2023)

Positive 2024 3.5% 1.41% 0.35 1.79

1,100 Positive Positive 2014 3.9% 0.46 1.95

1,200 Negative (2021, 2023)

Positive 2024 3.7% 0.37 1.86

1,300 Positive Positive 2014 3.9% 0.44 1.94

1,400 positive Positive 2014 4.1% 0.48 2.01

1,500 Negative (2018, 2021 – 2023)

Positive 2024 3.7% 0.38 1.87

<Partial Expressway Case>

Toll Rate Per

Vehicle km for

Passenger car


or Negative)

Negative Equity

(Positive or

Negative)



FIRR WACC Mini- mum

DSCR

Average DSCR


Negative (to 2024)

2032 1.8% 1.26% 0.00 1.30


Negative (to 2024)

2031 1.9% 0.03 1.35


Negative (to 2023)

2030 2.2% 0.09 1.43


Negative (to 2022)

2027 2.5% 0.17 1.54


Negative (to 2022)

2027 2.5% 0.18 1.54


Negative (to 2024)

2030 2.0% 0.06 1.37

Source: Estimated by Consultants. Note: Accumulated net cashflow: Positive or Negative: Positive stands for “No government subsidy

will be required”. Negative stands for “Government subsidy will be required”. Negative Equity in balance Sheet: Positive or Negative: Positive stands for “Equity will remain positive”. Negative stands for “Equity will show negative even once”

For Full Expressway Case, while the revenue maximum in year 2014 is located in the case of toll rate of VND 1,100, the revenue maximum in year 2024 is located in the case of toll rate of VND 1,400. So that, less parallel results among the cases by toll rate are observed.



5.7 Recommended Toll Rate

259. Only based on the indicators in the financial analysis results in the full expressway case in the alternative financing plan, the case in the toll level of VND 1,400 will be optimum, followed by the case in the toll level VND 1,100, although with a slight difference.

260. However, the willingness to pay survey results (only for private vehicle owners) has suggested that, almost all respondents were willing to use the highway at a toll rate of VND 600 per km, and around 70% were willing to use the highway at a toll rate of VND 800 per km. However, only about 30% of the respondents were to use the highway at a toll rate of VND 1,100 - 1,200 per km."

261. Considering the above, the toll level of VND 1,100 is to be selected, although still higher toll level according to the above survey results.

5.8 Financial Internal rate of Return (FIRR)

5.8.1 Estimation of FIRR

262. The financial internal rate of return (FIRR) for the Project is calculated based on similar assumption to the financial performance analysis shown above, however, several distinctive assumptions:

a) The FIRR calculation is made on the basis of constant 2009 prices. b) The calculation period is from 2009 to 2041. c) The project cost excluding price contingency is applied. d) The revenues are not adjusted for inflation and currency depreciation. e) The operation and maintenance costs are not adjusted for inflation. f) The residual value in the final year of calculation period is considered.

263. FIRR is calculated for the case of the full expressway and the partial expressway with the toll rate of VND 1,000 to 1,500 per vehicle km for passenger car.

264. Based on the above mentioned assumptions, FIRR values for the above cases are already shown in Table 5.8.

265. The details of FIRR calculation for the case of the full expressway with the toll rate of VND 1,100 per vehicle km for passenger car is shown in Table 5.10.

5.8.2 Estimation of WACC (Weighted Average Capital Cost)

266. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for the case of the full expressway in the alternative financing plan is calculated for comparison with the FIRR value. Inflation rates are assumed to be 0.5% and 6% for foreign and domestic inflation rates, respectively. As a result, WACC for the Project is estimated to be 2.9%.

Table 5.9 Estimated Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) (Alternative Financing Plan, Full Expressway Case)

ADF OCR (Original)

OCR (Supplemental)

Subsidy Total

Amount (US$ million) 200.0 887.1 0.0 120.0 1,207.1 Weighting 16.6% 73.5% 0.0% 9.9% 100.0% Nominal Cost 1.2% 3.12% 3.12% 0.0% Tax Rate 25% 25% 25% 25% Tax-adjusted Nominal Cost 0.90% 2.34% 2.34% 0.0% Inflation Rate 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.0% Real Cost 0.40% 1.83% 1.83% 0.0% Weighted Component of WACC 0.07% 1.35% 0.00% 0.0% 1.41%

Source: Estimated by Consultants



Table 5.10 Estimated Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) (Alternative Financing Plan, Full Expressway Case,

Toll Rate = VND 1,100 per Vehicle km for Passenger Car) (US$ Million)

Costs Revenue Cash Flow

Year CapitalInvestment

O/M VAT CorporateTax

Total (After

CorporateTax)

2009 0.0 0.0 0.02010 295.1 295.1 (295.1)2011 306.7 306.7 (306.7)2012 355.4 355.4 (355.4)2013 139.7 3.0 1.1 0.0 143.8 11.2 (132.6)2014 5.9 2.8 0.0 8.8 28.2 19.42015 5.9 3.4 0.0 9.3 34.0 24.62016 5.9 4.0 0.0 9.9 39.8 29.92017 5.9 4.6 0.0 10.5 45.6 35.12018 5.9 5.1 0.0 11.1 51.4 40.32019 5.9 5.7 0.0 11.7 57.2 45.62020 5.9 6.3 0.0 12.2 63.0 50.82021 33.6 6.9 0.0 40.5 68.8 28.32022 5.9 7.5 0.0 13.4 74.6 61.22023 34.0 5.9 8.0 0.4 48.4 80.4 32.02024 5.9 8.6 8.6 23.2 86.3 63.12025 5.9 9.2 8.9 24.0 91.7 67.72026 5.9 9.7 9.1 24.8 97.1 72.32027 5.9 10.3 9.3 25.5 102.5 77.12028 5.9 10.8 9.4 26.1 108.0 81.82029 33.6 11.3 7.5 52.4 113.4 60.92030 5.9 11.9 14.3 32.1 118.8 86.72031 5.9 12.4 14.1 32.5 124.2 91.82032 5.9 13.0 13.9 32.8 129.7 96.82033 34.0 5.9 13.5 13.6 67.0 134.8 67.82034 5.9 13.8 18.7 38.5 138.3 99.82035 5.9 14.2 18.0 38.1 141.8 103.62036 5.9 14.5 17.2 37.7 145.3 107.62037 33.6 14.9 9.5 58.0 148.8 90.82038 5.9 15.2 15.6 36.8 152.3 115.62039 5.9 15.6 20.8 42.3 155.8 113.52040 5.9 15.9 19.8 41.6 159.3 117.72041 (315.4) 5.9 16.3 18.8 (274.4) 162.8 437.2

FIRR before Corporate Tax 4.4%FIRR after Corporate Tax 3.9%WACC 1.4%

Source: Estimated by Consultants Note: ( ) = negative, FIRR = Financial Internal Rate of Return, O/M = Operation & Maintenance,

VAT = Value Added Tax,

5.8.3 Sensitivity Test

267. Sensitivity test for FIRR is made for the case of the full expressway in the alternative financing plan with the toll rate of VND 1,100 per vehicle km for passenger car, by altering the construction cost (cost over-run of +10%), O/M costs (cost over-run of +10%), or the decrease of traffic volume (-10%).



Table 5.11 Sensitivity Test for FIRR

FIRR (%) WACC (%) (For Reference) (FIRR as of 2007)

1. Base Case 3.9% 1.4% (6.5%)

2. Traffic volume decrease by 10% 3.3% 1.4% (5.6%)

3. Construction cost increased by 10% 3.4% 1.5% (5.8%)

4. O/M costs increased by 10% 3.8% 1.4% (6.3%)

5. Combination of above 2, 3 and 4 2.8% 1.5% (5.0%)

Source: Estimated by Consultants



Tabl

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0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

11.6

Net O

pera

ting

Prof

it / (

Loss

)0.0

0.00.0

0.0(7

.9)(9

.1)(3

.9)(2

6.6)

(24.6

)(1

9.2)

5.011

.8(3

7.2)

25.0

30.5

60.2

B. C

ashf

low

Stat

emen

tOp

erati

ng In

come

0.00.0

0.00.0

(7.9)

(9.1)

(3.9)

(26.6

)(2

4.6)

(19.2

)5.0

11.8

(37.2

)25

.030

.560

.2De

prec

iation

0.00.0

0.00.0

15.2

30.4

30.4

30.4

30.4

30.4

30.4

30.4

30.4

30.4

31.4

32.3

Net C

F fro

m Op

erati

on0.0

0.00.0

0.07.3

21.3

26.5

3.95.8

11.2

35.5

42.3

(6.8)

55.4

61.8

92.5

Equit

y0.0

120.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

Loan

0.017

5.130

6.735

5.413

9.70.0

0.00.0

Inves

tmen

t Cos

t0.0

295.1

306.7

355.4

139.7

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.053

.00.0

Debt

Repa

ymen

t0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

15.6

25.6

27.3

29.2

31.3

33.6

36.1

38.8

41.9

Net C

ashf

low

0.00.0

0.00.0

7.321

.326

.5(1

1.7)

(19.7

)(1

6.1)

6.311

.0(4

0.4)

19.4

(30.0

)50

.7Ac

cum

ulat

ed C

ashf

low

0.00.0

0.00.0

7.328

.655

.143

.323

.67.5

13.8

24.8

(15.6

)3.8

(26.2

)24

.4

C. B

alanc

e She

etCu

rrent

asse

t0.0

0.00.0

0.07.3

28.6

55.1

43.3

23.6

7.513

.824

.8(1

5.6)

3.8(2

6.2)

24.4

Fixed

asse

t1.2

299.7

616.2

990.4

1,155

.91,1

84.3

1,213

.71,2

16.1

1,216

.11,2

16.1

1,216

.11,2

16.1

1,216

.11,2

16.1

1,269

.01,2

69.0

Accu

mulat

ed D

epre

ciatio

n0.0

0.00.0

0.015

.245

.676

.110

6.513

6.916

7.319

7.722

8.225

8.628

9.032

0.435

2.7Ne

t Fixe

d ass

et1.2

299.7

616.2

990.4

1,140

.71,1

38.7

1,137

.61,1

09.6

1,079

.21,0

48.7

1,018

.398

7.995

7.592

7.094

8.691

6.3To

tal A

sset

1.229

9.761

6.299

0.41,1

48.0

1,167

.31,1

92.7

1,152

.91,1

02.7

1,056

.21,0

32.1

1,012

.794

1.993

0.892

2.494

0.8Eq

uity

0.012

0.012

0.012

0.011

2.110

3.099

.072

.547

.928

.733

.745

.68.3

33.4

63.8

124.0

Loan

1.217

9.749

6.287

0.41,0

35.9

1,064

.31,0

93.7

1,080

.41,0

54.9

1,027

.699

8.496

7.193

3.589

7.585

8.681

6.7To

tal L

iabilit

y and

Equ

ity1.2

299.7

616.2

990.4

1,148

.01,1

67.3

1,192

.71,1

52.9

1,102

.71,0

56.2

1,032

.11,0

12.7

941.9

930.8

922.4

940.8

DSCR

(Deb

t Ser

vice C

over

age R

atio)

0.7

40.6

60.7

31.1

51.2

00.3

51.3

20.5

41.8

4De

bt to

Total

Ass

ets0.9

020.9

120.9

170.9

370.9

570.9

730.9

670.9

550.9

910.9

640.9

310.8

68



Item

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

A. In

com

e Sta

tem

ent

Gros

s Rev

enue

0.00.0

0.00.0

13.4

35.4

42.1

48.7

55.0

61.3

90.1

97.9

105.6

113.0

120.2

170.3

VAT

to Re

venu

e0.0

0.00.0

0.01.3

3.54.2

4.95.5

6.19.0

9.810

.611

.312

.017

.0O/

M Co

sts0.0

0.00.0

0.03.8

8.08.4

8.99.5

10.0

10.6

11.3

12.0

12.7

13.4

14.2

Perio

dical

Maint

. C0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.055

.70.0

0.00.0

Oper

ating

Pro

fit0.0

0.00.0

0.08.3

23.9

29.5

34.8

40.1

45.1

70.4

76.8

27.3

89.0

94.8

139.0

Depr

eciat

ion0.0

0.00.0

0.015

.230

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.431

.432

.3Int

eres

t (AD

F)0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.03.4

3.23.1

2.92.8

2.62.5

2.4Int

eres

t (OC

R)0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

27.7

27.1

26.6

26.0

25.3

24.5

23.7

22.8

21.8

Inter

est (

Bond

)0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.0Pr

ofit b

efore

Tax

0.00.0

0.00.0

(6.9)

(6.6)

(1.0)

(23.2

)(2

0.9)

(15.1

)10

.918

.2(3

0.4)

32.3

38.1

82.5

Corp

orate

Tax

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

1.020

.6Ne

t Ope

ratin

g Pr

ofit

/ (Lo

ss)

0.00.0

0.00.0

(6.9)

(6.6)

(1.0)

(23.2

)(2

0.9)

(15.1

)10

.918

.2(3

0.4)

32.3

37.1

61.9

B. C

ashf

low

Stat

emen

tOp

erati

ng In

come

0.00.0

0.00.0

(6.9)

(6.6)

(1.0)

(23.2

)(2

0.9)

(15.1

)10

.918

.2(3

0.4)

32.3

37.1

61.9

Depr

eciat

ion0.0

0.00.0

0.015

.230

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.431

.432

.3Ne

t CF

from

Oper

ation

0.00.0

0.00.0

8.323

.929

.57.2

9.615

.341

.448

.60.0

62.7

68.5

94.2

Equit

y0.0

120.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

Loan

0.017

5.130

6.735

5.413

9.70.0

0.00.0

Inves

tmen

t Cos

t0.0

295.1

306.7

355.4

139.7

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.053

.00.0

Debt

Repa

ymen

t0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

15.6

25.6

27.3

29.2

31.3

33.6

36.1

38.8

41.9

Net C

ashf

low

0.00.0

0.00.0

8.323

.929

.5(8

.4)(1

6.0)

(12.0

)12

.217

.4(3

3.6)

26.6

(23.3

)52

.4Ac

cum

ulat

ed C

ashf

low

0.00.0

0.00.0

8.332

.261

.653

.237

.225

.237

.354

.721

.247

.824

.476

.8

C. B

alanc

e She

etCu

rrent

asse

t0.0

0.00.0

0.08.3

32.2

61.6

53.2

37.2

25.2

37.3

54.7

21.2

47.8

24.4

76.8

Fixed

asse

t1.2

299.7

616.2

990.4

1,155

.91,1

84.3

1,213

.71,2

16.1

1,216

.11,2

16.1

1,216

.11,2

16.1

1,216

.11,2

16.1

1,269

.01,2

69.0

Accu

mulat

ed D

epre

ciatio

n0.0

0.00.0

0.015

.245

.676

.110

6.513

6.916

7.319

7.722

8.225

8.628

9.032

0.435

2.7Ne

t Fixe

d ass

et1.2

299.7

616.2

990.4

1,140

.71,1

38.7

1,137

.61,1

09.6

1,079

.21,0

48.7

1,018

.398

7.995

7.592

7.094

8.691

6.3To

tal A

sset

1.229

9.761

6.299

0.41,1

49.0

1,170

.91,1

99.2

1,162

.81,1

16.3

1,073

.91,0

55.7

1,042

.697

8.697

4.897

3.199

3.1Eq

uity

0.012

0.012

0.012

0.011

3.110

6.510

5.682

.461

.546

.457

.375

.545

.177

.311

4.517

6.4Lo

an1.2

179.7

496.2

870.4

1,035

.91,0

64.3

1,093

.71,0

80.4

1,054

.91,0

27.6

998.4

967.1

933.5

897.5

858.6

816.7

Tota

l Liab

ility a

nd E

quity

1.229

9.761

6.299

0.41,1

49.0

1,170

.91,1

99.2

1,162

.81,1

16.3

1,073

.91,0

55.7

1,042

.697

8.697

4.897

3.199

3.1

DSCR

(Deb

t Ser

vice C

over

age R

atio)

0.8

20.7

30.8

01.2

61.3

10.4

61.4

40.6

51.8

7De

bt to

Total

Ass

ets0.9

020.9

090.9

120.9

290.9

450.9

570.9

460.9

280.9

540.9

210.8

820.8

22

Tabl

e 5.

12 (2

) Pr

ojec

t Fin

anci

al S

tate

men

t (A

ltern

ativ

e Fi

nanc

ing

Plan

, Ful

l Exp

ress

way

, Tol

l Rat

e: V

ND

1,1

00 p

er k

m fo

r Pas

seng

er C

ar)

(Uni

t: U

S$ M

illion

)



Item

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

A. In

com

e Sta

tem

ent

Gros

s Rev

enue

0.00.0

0.00.0

11.1

30.6

37.4

44.0

50.4

56.7

84.0

92.0

99.7

107.2

114.5

162.7

VAT

to Re

venu

e0.0

0.00.0

0.01.1

3.13.7

4.45.0

5.78.4

9.210

.010

.711

.516

.3O/

M Co

sts0.0

0.00.0

0.03.8

8.08.4

8.99.5

10.0

10.6

11.3

12.0

12.7

13.4

14.2

Perio

dical

Maint

. C0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.055

.70.0

0.00.0

Oper

ating

Pro

fit0.0

0.00.0

0.06.3

19.5

25.2

30.6

35.9

41.0

65.0

71.5

22.0

83.8

89.6

132.2

Depr

eciat

ion0.0

0.00.0

0.015

.230

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.431

.432

.3Int

eres

t (AD

F)0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.03.4

3.23.1

2.92.8

2.62.5

2.4Int

eres

t (OC

R)0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

27.7

27.1

26.6

26.0

25.3

24.5

23.7

22.8

21.8

Inter

est (

Bond

)0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.0Pr

ofit b

efore

Tax

0.00.0

0.00.0

(9.0)

(10.9

)(5

.2)(2

7.4)

(25.0

)(1

9.2)

5.512

.9(3

5.7)

27.0

32.9

75.7

Corp

orate

Tax

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.013

.9Ne

t Ope

ratin

g Pr

ofit

/ (Lo

ss)

0.00.0

0.00.0

(9.0)

(10.9

)(5

.2)(2

7.4)

(25.0

)(1

9.2)

5.512

.9(3

5.7)

27.0

32.9

61.8

B. C

ashf

low

Stat

emen

tOp

erati

ng In

come

0.00.0

0.00.0

(9.0)

(10.9

)(5

.2)(2

7.4)

(25.0

)(1

9.2)

5.512

.9(3

5.7)

27.0

32.9

61.8

Depr

eciat

ion0.0

0.00.0

0.015

.230

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.431

.432

.3Ne

t CF

from

Oper

ation

0.00.0

0.00.0

6.319

.525

.23.0

5.411

.235

.943

.3(5

.3)57

.564

.394

.1Eq

uity

0.012

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.0Lo

an0.0

175.1

306.7

355.4

139.7

0.00.0

0.0Inv

estm

ent C

ost

0.029

5.130

6.735

5.413

9.70.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

53.0

0.0De

bt Re

paym

ent

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.015

.625

.627

.329

.231

.333

.636

.138

.841

.9Ne

t Cas

hflo

w0.0

0.00.0

0.06.3

19.5

25.2

(12.6

)(2

0.2)

(16.1

)6.8

12.0

(38.8

)21

.4(2

7.5)

52.2

Accu

mul

ated

Cas

hflo

w0.0

0.00.0

0.06.3

25.8

51.0

38.4

18.2

2.18.8

20.8

(18.0

)3.4

(24.1

)28

.1

C. B

alanc

e She

etCu

rrent

asse

t0.0

0.00.0

0.06.3

25.8

51.0

38.4

18.2

2.18.8

20.8

(18.0

)3.4

(24.1

)28

.1Fix

ed as

set

1.229

9.761

6.299

0.41,1

55.9

1,184

.31,2

13.7

1,216

.11,2

16.1

1,216

.11,2

16.1

1,216

.11,2

16.1

1,216

.11,2

69.0

1,269

.0Ac

cumu

lated

Dep

recia

tion

0.00.0

0.00.0

15.2

45.6

76.1

106.5

136.9

167.3

197.7

228.2

258.6

289.0

320.4

352.7

Net F

ixed a

sset

1.229

9.761

6.299

0.41,1

40.7

1,138

.71,1

37.6

1,109

.61,0

79.2

1,048

.71,0

18.3

987.9

957.5

927.0

948.6

916.3

Tota

l Ass

et1.2

299.7

616.2

990.4

1,146

.91,1

64.5

1,188

.61,1

48.0

1,097

.41,0

50.8

1,027

.11,0

08.7

939.5

930.4

924.5

944.5

Equit

y0.0

120.0

120.0

120.0

111.0

100.2

94.9

67.5

42.5

23.3

28.8

41.6

5.933

.065

.912

7.7Lo

an1.2

179.7

496.2

870.4

1,035

.91,0

64.3

1,093

.71,0

80.4

1,054

.91,0

27.6

998.4

967.1

933.5

897.5

858.6

816.7

Tota

l Liab

ility a

nd E

quity

1.229

9.761

6.299

0.41,1

46.9

1,164

.51,1

88.6

1,148

.01,0

97.4

1,050

.81,0

27.1

1,008

.793

9.593

0.492

4.594

4.5

DSCR

(Deb

t Ser

vice C

over

age R

atio)

0.7

20.6

50.7

31.1

61.2

20.3

71.3

50.5

81.8

6De

bt to

Total

Ass

ets0.9

030.9

140.9

200.9

410.9

610.9

780.9

720.9

590.9

940.9

650.9

290.8

65

Tabl

e 5.

12 (3

) Pr

ojec

t Fin

anci

al S

tate

men

t (A

ltern

ativ

e Fi

nanc

ing

Plan

, Ful

l Exp

ress

way

, Tol

l Rat

e: V

ND

1,2

00 p

er k

m fo

r Pas

seng

er C

ar)

(Uni

t: U

S$ M

illion

)



Item

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

A. In

com

e Sta

tem

ent

Gros

s Rev

enue

0.00.0

0.00.0

12.1

32.7

39.6

46.4

53.0

59.4

87.8

95.9

103.8

111.5

118.9

168.8

VAT

to Re

venu

e0.0

0.00.0

0.01.2

3.34.0

4.65.3

5.98.8

9.610

.411

.111

.916

.9O/

M Co

sts0.0

0.00.0

0.03.8

8.08.4

8.99.5

10.0

10.6

11.3

12.0

12.7

13.4

14.2

Perio

dical

Maint

. C0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.055

.70.0

0.00.0

Oper

ating

Pro

fit0.0

0.00.0

0.07.1

21.5

27.2

32.8

38.2

43.4

68.4

75.0

25.7

87.6

93.6

137.7

Depr

eciat

ion0.0

0.00.0

0.015

.230

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.431

.432

.3Int

eres

t (AD

F)0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.03.4

3.23.1

2.92.8

2.62.5

2.4Int

eres

t (OC

R)0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

27.7

27.1

26.6

26.0

25.3

24.5

23.7

22.8

21.8

Inter

est (

Bond

)0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.0Pr

ofit b

efore

Tax

0.00.0

0.00.0

(8.1)

(9.0)

(3.2)

(25.3

)(2

2.7)

(16.8

)8.9

16.4

(32.0

)30

.936

.981

.2Co

rpor

ate T

ax0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

19.4

Net O

pera

ting

Prof

it / (

Loss

)0.0

0.00.0

0.0(8

.1)(9

.0)(3

.2)(2

5.3)

(22.7

)(1

6.8)

8.916

.4(3

2.0)

30.9

36.9

61.9

B. C

ashf

low

Stat

emen

tOp

erati

ng In

come

0.00.0

0.00.0

(8.1)

(9.0)

(3.2)

(25.3

)(2

2.7)

(16.8

)8.9

16.4

(32.0

)30

.936

.961

.9De

prec

iation

0.00.0

0.00.0

15.2

30.4

30.4

30.4

30.4

30.4

30.4

30.4

30.4

30.4

31.4

32.3

Net C

F fro

m Op

erati

on0.0

0.00.0

0.07.1

21.5

27.2

5.27.7

13.6

39.3

46.8

(1.6)

61.3

68.3

94.2

Equit

y0.0

120.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

Loan

0.017

5.130

6.735

5.413

9.70.0

0.00.0

Inves

tmen

t Cos

t0.0

295.1

306.7

355.4

139.7

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.053

.00.0

Debt

Repa

ymen

t0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

15.6

25.6

27.3

29.2

31.3

33.6

36.1

38.8

41.9

Net C

ashf

low

0.00.0

0.00.0

7.121

.527

.2(1

0.4)

(17.9

)(1

3.7)

10.1

15.5

(35.2

)25

.2(2

3.5)

52.3

Accu

mul

ated

Cas

hflo

w0.0

0.00.0

0.07.1

28.6

55.8

45.3

27.5

13.7

23.9

39.4

4.329

.56.0

58.3

C. B

alanc

e She

etCu

rrent

asse

t0.0

0.00.0

0.07.1

28.6

55.8

45.3

27.5

13.7

23.9

39.4

4.329

.56.0

58.3

Fixed

asse

t1.2

299.7

616.2

990.4

1,155

.91,1

84.3

1,213

.71,2

16.1

1,216

.11,2

16.1

1,216

.11,2

16.1

1,216

.11,2

16.1

1,269

.01,2

69.0

Accu

mulat

ed D

epre

ciatio

n0.0

0.00.0

0.015

.245

.676

.110

6.513

6.916

7.319

7.722

8.225

8.628

9.032

0.435

2.7Ne

t Fixe

d ass

et1.2

299.7

616.2

990.4

1,140

.71,1

38.7

1,137

.61,1

09.6

1,079

.21,0

48.7

1,018

.398

7.995

7.592

7.094

8.691

6.3To

tal A

sset

1.229

9.761

6.299

0.41,1

47.8

1,167

.31,1

93.4

1,154

.91,1

06.6

1,062

.51,0

42.2

1,027

.396

1.795

6.595

4.697

4.6Eq

uity

0.012

0.012

0.012

0.011

1.910

2.999

.774

.551

.834

.943

.860

.228

.259

.196

.015

7.9Lo

an1.2

179.7

496.2

870.4

1,035

.91,0

64.3

1,093

.71,0

80.4

1,054

.91,0

27.6

998.4

967.1

933.5

897.5

858.6

816.7

Tota

l Liab

ility a

nd E

quity

1.229

9.761

6.299

0.41,1

47.8

1,167

.31,1

93.4

1,154

.91,1

06.6

1,062

.51,0

42.2

1,027

.396

1.795

6.595

4.697

4.6

DSCR

(Deb

t Ser

vice C

over

age R

atio)

0.7

70.6

90.7

71.2

21.2

80.4

41.4

20.6

41.8

7De

bt to

Total

Ass

ets0.9

030.9

120.9

160.9

360.9

530.9

670.9

580.9

410.9

710.9

380.8

990.8

38

Tabl

e 5.

12 (4

) Pr

ojec

t Fin

anci

al S

tate

men

t (A

ltern

ativ

e Fi

nanc

ing

Plan

, Ful

l Exp

ress

way

, Tol

l Rat

e: V

ND

1,3

00 p

er k

m fo

r Pas

seng

er C

ar)

(Uni

t: U

S$ M

illion

)



Item

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

A. In

com

e Sta

tem

ent

Gros

s Rev

enue

0.00.0

0.00.0

11.5

32.0

39.4

46.6

53.7

60.5

89.8

98.5

106.9

115.0

123.0

174.9

VAT

to Re

venu

e0.0

0.00.0

0.01.2

3.23.9

4.75.4

6.09.0

9.810

.711

.512

.317

.5O/

M Co

sts0.0

0.00.0

0.03.8

8.08.4

8.99.5

10.0

10.6

11.3

12.0

12.7

13.4

14.2

Perio

dical

Maint

. C0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.055

.70.0

0.00.0

Oper

ating

Pro

fit0.0

0.00.0

0.06.6

20.9

27.1

33.0

38.8

44.4

70.2

77.3

28.5

90.9

97.2

143.2

Depr

eciat

ion0.0

0.00.0

0.015

.230

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.431

.432

.3Int

eres

t (AD

F)0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.03.4

3.23.1

2.92.8

2.62.5

2.4Int

eres

t (OC

R)0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

27.7

27.1

26.6

26.0

25.3

24.5

23.7

22.8

21.8

Inter

est (

Bond

)0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.0Pr

ofit b

efore

Tax

0.00.0

0.00.0

(8.6)

(9.5)

(3.4)

(25.0

)(2

2.1)

(15.8

)10

.718

.7(2

9.3)

34.1

40.6

86.7

Corp

orate

Tax

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

1.921

.7Ne

t Ope

ratin

g Pr

ofit

/ (Lo

ss)

0.00.0

0.00.0

(8.6)

(9.5)

(3.4)

(25.0

)(2

2.1)

(15.8

)10

.718

.7(2

9.3)

34.1

38.7

65.0

B. C

ashf

low

Stat

emen

tOp

erati

ng In

come

0.00.0

0.00.0

(8.6)

(9.5)

(3.4)

(25.0

)(2

2.1)

(15.8

)10

.718

.7(2

9.3)

34.1

38.7

65.0

Depr

eciat

ion0.0

0.00.0

0.015

.230

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.431

.432

.3Ne

t CF

from

Oper

ation

0.00.0

0.00.0

6.620

.927

.15.4

8.314

.641

.249

.11.2

64.5

70.1

97.3

Equit

y0.0

120.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

Loan

0.017

5.130

6.735

5.413

9.70.0

0.00.0

Inves

tmen

t Cos

t0.0

295.1

306.7

355.4

139.7

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.053

.00.0

Debt

Repa

ymen

t0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

15.6

25.6

27.3

29.2

31.3

33.6

36.1

38.8

41.9

Net C

ashf

low

0.00.0

0.00.0

6.620

.927

.1(1

0.2)

(17.3

)(1

2.7)

12.0

17.8

(32.4

)28

.4(2

1.7)

55.5

Accu

mul

ated

Cas

hflo

w0.0

0.00.0

0.06.6

27.5

54.6

44.4

27.1

14.4

26.3

44.2

11.8

40.2

18.5

73.9

C. B

alanc

e She

etCu

rrent

asse

t0.0

0.00.0

0.06.6

27.5

54.6

44.4

27.1

14.4

26.3

44.2

11.8

40.2

18.5

73.9

Fixed

asse

t1.2

299.7

616.2

990.4

1,155

.91,1

84.3

1,213

.71,2

16.1

1,216

.11,2

16.1

1,216

.11,2

16.1

1,216

.11,2

16.1

1,269

.01,2

69.0

Accu

mulat

ed D

epre

ciatio

n0.0

0.00.0

0.015

.245

.676

.110

6.513

6.916

7.319

7.722

8.225

8.628

9.032

0.435

2.7Ne

t Fixe

d ass

et1.2

299.7

616.2

990.4

1,140

.71,1

38.7

1,137

.61,1

09.6

1,079

.21,0

48.7

1,018

.398

7.995

7.592

7.094

8.691

6.3To

tal A

sset

1.229

9.761

6.299

0.41,1

47.3

1,166

.21,1

92.2

1,153

.91,1

06.2

1,063

.11,0

44.6

1,032

.196

9.296

7.296

7.199

0.3Eq

uity

0.012

0.012

0.012

0.011

1.410

1.998

.573

.551

.435

.546

.365

.035

.769

.810

8.517

3.5Lo

an1.2

179.7

496.2

870.4

1,035

.91,0

64.3

1,093

.71,0

80.4

1,054

.91,0

27.6

998.4

967.1

933.5

897.5

858.6

816.7

Tota

l Liab

ility a

nd E

quity

1.229

9.761

6.299

0.41,1

47.3

1,166

.21,1

92.2

1,153

.91,1

06.2

1,063

.11,0

44.6

1,032

.196

9.296

7.296

7.199

0.3

DSCR

(Deb

t Ser

vice C

over

age R

atio)

0.7

80.7

00.7

91.2

61.3

10.4

81.4

70.6

71.9

2De

bt to

Total

Ass

ets0.9

030.9

130.9

170.9

360.9

540.9

670.9

560.9

370.9

630.9

280.8

880.8

25

Tabl

e 5.

12 (5

) Pr

ojec

t Fin

anci

al S

tate

men

t (A

ltern

ativ

e Fi

nanc

ing

Plan

, Ful

l Exp

ress

way

, Tol

l Rat

e: V

ND

1,4

00 p

er k

m f

or P

asse

nger

Car

)

(Uni

t: U

S$ M

illion

)



Item

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

A. In

com

e Sta

tem

ent

Gros

s Rev

enue

0.00.0

0.00.0

10.5

29.4

36.4

43.2

49.8

56.2

83.7

91.8

99.8

107.5

115.0

163.6

VAT

to Re

venu

e0.0

0.00.0

0.01.0

2.93.6

4.35.0

5.68.4

9.210

.010

.711

.516

.4O/

M Co

sts0.0

0.00.0

0.03.8

8.08.4

8.99.5

10.0

10.6

11.3

12.0

12.7

13.4

14.2

Perio

dical

Maint

. C0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.055

.70.0

0.00.0

Oper

ating

Pro

fit0.0

0.00.0

0.05.7

18.5

24.3

29.9

35.4

40.6

64.7

71.4

22.1

84.1

90.0

133.0

Depr

eciat

ion0.0

0.00.0

0.015

.230

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.431

.432

.3Int

eres

t (AD

F)0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.03.4

3.23.1

2.92.8

2.62.5

2.4Int

eres

t (OC

R)0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

27.7

27.1

26.6

26.0

25.3

24.5

23.7

22.8

21.8

Inter

est (

Bond

)0.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.0Pr

ofit b

efore

Tax

0.00.0

0.00.0

(9.5)

(11.9

)(6

.1)(2

8.1)

(25.6

)(1

9.6)

5.212

.7(3

5.7)

27.3

33.4

76.5

Corp

orate

Tax

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.014

.1Ne

t Ope

ratin

g Pr

ofit

/ (Lo

ss)

0.00.0

0.00.0

(9.5)

(11.9

)(6

.1)(2

8.1)

(25.6

)(1

9.6)

5.212

.7(3

5.7)

27.3

33.4

62.5

B. C

ashf

low

Stat

emen

tOp

erati

ng In

come

0.00.0

0.00.0

(9.5)

(11.9

)(6

.1)(2

8.1)

(25.6

)(1

9.6)

5.212

.7(3

5.7)

27.3

33.4

62.5

Depr

eciat

ion0.0

0.00.0

0.015

.230

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.430

.431

.432

.3Ne

t CF

from

Oper

ation

0.00.0

0.00.0

5.718

.524

.32.3

4.810

.835

.643

.1(5

.2)57

.764

.794

.8Eq

uity

0.012

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.0Lo

an0.0

175.1

306.7

355.4

139.7

0.00.0

0.0Inv

estm

ent C

ost

0.029

5.130

6.735

5.413

9.70.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

53.0

0.0De

bt Re

paym

ent

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.00.0

0.015

.625

.627

.329

.231

.333

.636

.138

.841

.9Ne

t Cas

hflo

w0.0

0.00.0

0.05.7

18.5

24.3

(13.3

)(2

0.7)

(16.5

)6.4

11.9

(38.8

)21

.6(2

7.1)

52.9

Accu

mul

ated

Cas

hflo

w0.0

0.00.0

0.05.7

24.2

48.5

35.2

14.4

(2.1)

4.316

.2(2

2.6)

(0.9)

(28.0

)24

.9

C. B

alanc

e She

etCu

rrent

asse

t0.0

0.00.0

0.05.7

24.2

48.5

35.2

14.4

(2.1)

4.316

.2(2

2.6)

(0.9)

(28.0

)24

.9Fix

ed as

set

1.229

9.761

6.299

0.41,1

55.9

1,184

.31,2

13.7

1,216

.11,2

16.1

1,216

.11,2

16.1

1,216

.11,2

16.1

1,216

.11,2

69.0

1,269

.0Ac

cumu

lated

Dep

recia

tion

0.00.0

0.00.0

15.2

45.6

76.1

106.5

136.9

167.3

197.7

228.2

258.6

289.0

320.4

352.7

Net F

ixed a

sset

1.229

9.761

6.299

0.41,1

40.7

1,138

.71,1

37.6

1,109

.61,0

79.2

1,048

.71,0

18.3

987.9

957.5

927.0

948.6

916.3

Tota

l Ass

et1.2

299.7

616.2

990.4

1,146

.41,1

62.9

1,186

.11,1

44.8

1,093

.61,0

46.7

1,022

.71,0

04.1

934.9

926.1

920.6

941.2

Equit

y0.0

120.0

120.0

120.0

110.5

98.6

92.5

64.3

38.7

19.1

24.3

37.0

1.428

.662

.012

4.5Lo

an1.2

179.7

496.2

870.4

1,035

.91,0

64.3

1,093

.71,0

80.4

1,054

.91,0

27.6

998.4

967.1

933.5

897.5

858.6

816.7

Tota

l Liab

ility a

nd E

quity

1.229

9.761

6.299

0.41,1

46.4

1,162

.91,1

86.1

1,144

.81,0

93.6

1,046

.71,0

22.7

1,004

.193

4.992

6.192

0.694

1.2

DSCR

(Deb

t Ser

vice C

over

age R

atio)

0.7

10.6

40.7

21.1

61.2

10.3

81.3

60.5

91.8

7De

bt to

Total

Ass

ets0.9

040.9

150.9

220.9

440.9

650.9

820.9

760.9

630.9

990.9

690.9

330.8

68

Tabl

e 5.

12 (6

) Pr

ojec

t Fin

anci

al S

tate

men

t (A

ltern

ativ

e Fi

nanc

ing

Plan

, Ful

l Exp

ress

way

, Tol

l Rat

e: V

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6. COMPONENT 5 - FINANCIAL EVALUATION FOR VEC

6.1 Legal and Institutional Development Background of VEC

268. The Vietnam Expressway Corporation (VEC) was established in October 2004 as a state-owned enterprise (SOE) under the direct control and supervision of the Ministry of Transport (MOT). VEC is the designated entity to become the eventual owner and perhaps also operator33 of selected34 expressway assets in Viet Nam. Hence, VEC is apparently not the only “player” in the development of expressways in Viet Nam.

269. VEC’s present main institutional characteristics in terms of vision and business objectives are that the organization has a “provisional” organization structure as well as a “provisional” charter”35. The provisional charter defines VEC’s institutional mandate and functions quite broadly in Article 4 as:

� “Investment in expressway construction, management, maintenance and organizing toll collection on the national expressways

� Investment in construction of other transport infrastructure by different modalities � Operation and doing business by providing services along expressways; such as: rest houses,

restaurants, filling stations, advertisement and construction materials � Transport engineering consultancy: studying the national expressway network development;

preparing pre-feasibility studies and feasibility studies; designing and supervising transport infrastructure construction works; and

� Studying development of service in the adjacent areas to the expressways”36.

270. VEC’s current core activities consist of the promotion of the expressway “Master Plan” and the development of three out of six (6) active expressway projects, out of which the “Cau Gie – Ninh Binh, Noi bai – Lao cai and Hochiminh – Longthanh - Daugiay expressways are under construction with the supervision of VEC.

271. VEC’s total charter capital promised by the state at its establishment in 2004 was about US dollar 56.12 million37. The Ministry of Finance (MOF) transferred around US dollar 2.8 million by the time of its foundation. However, VEC’s charter capital increased as of January 1st, 2005 and reached in December 31st, 2005 a level of US dollar 15.80mil, of which US dollar 8.56 million is additionally provided by MOF, US dollar 4.43 million originates from toll collections, transferred by MOF from toll collected on tolled national highways, which are administered by “Viet Nam General Road Administration (VGRA)”, a division of MOT. It is envisaged that the remaining charter capital of around US dollar 40.32million will be provided by granting VEC toll collection rights for the Cau Gie and Phu Dong toll plazas for ten years. To date 31 December 2008 charter capital of the Company is US dollar 56.27 million. VEC has issued some government backed-bond for financing the construction of the Cau Gie – Ninh Binh and Noi bai – Lao cai Expressways.

272. VEC in its current start-up phase is provisionally organized in accordance with the provisions of the “Law on State Enterprises”38 along three (3) hierarchical levels, seven (7) divisions with functional responsibilities. In addition, there are two (3) project implementing units (PIUs) for the Cau gie - Ninh binh, Noi bai - Lao cai projects and Southern projects and two (02) subsidiaries including the Expressway Consulting Joint Stock Company and the Expressway Servicing Joint Stock Company . Total staff on VEC’s payroll was 243 people in June 2009. The organization’s operational principles are regulated by the 33 The discussion as to whether O&M of the expressways should be outsourced under concessionaire contracts is on-going and no

final decision seems to have been taken yet. 34 See Section 7.3 for details. According to information received from VEC, not all expressways identified presently in the Prime

Minister’s approval list will be constructed and operated by VEC, 35 The recent FINNROAD-Study (April 2007) analyses VEC’s prevailing institutional set-up in relative detail in Chapter 2.6 of Volume

2 of the Final Report. The detailed findings, conclusions and recommendations stated in the FINNROAD-Study do not need to be repeated here, but rather form the starting point for more detailed deliberations.

36 MOT decision No. 3033/QD-BGTVT dated October 6th, 2004: VEC Charter; MOT Decision 3446/QD-BGTVT dated November 12th, 2004.

37 The charter capital is 1,000 billion VND, equivalent to US dollar 56.12 million at an exchange rate of VND 17,800 to one US dollar. All US dollar quotes are using this exchange rate unless explicitly stated otherwise.

38 Details of the current organization structure are presented and discussed in the FINNROAD-Study; Vol. 2; Chapter 2.4, pp. 13 ff.



“Temporary Operational and Organization Regulation”, approved by MOT with decision No. 3446/QD-BGTVT dated November 12th, 2004. The financial management of VEC as a SOE is regulated in the “Financial Regulations Of The Vietnam Expressway Corporation” promulgated by Decision 2547/QD-BGTVT dated November 22nd, 2006 by MOT39 .

273. However, Viet Nam’s prevailing law requires that VEC-type SOEs be converted no later than July 1st, 2010 either into a limited liability or shareholding company. The legal conversion requirement will have a profound impact on VEC’s institutional and commercial performance opportunities and risks, since the date falls into the peak years of planned investment activities40.

274. A full-scale institutional capability and capacity analysis is beyond the scope of the present investigation. However, selected current institutional capacities and capabilities of VEC are presented based on the analyses in the FINNROAD report, selected interviews with VEC core staff as well as “birds-eye-view” institutional analyses. They are presented in the matrix in Table 6.1.

275. VEC even under the prevailing regulatory framework for SOE’s must be a profitable entity, in order to enable MOF to on-lend ODA loan receipts. A converted VEC that takes either the legal form of a limited liability or shareholding company must be even more considerate to ensure its long-term commercial viability, in order to ensure and maintain high levels of credit-worthiness and credibility with lending institutions and/or potential private sector investors.

276. Major issues, in order to achieve and sustain such high levels are:

� The almost total absence of in-house demand modeling expertise which results in having to rely on other entities

� VEC’s lack of practical experience as an expressway owner and operator, and � VEC’s lack of practical experience in asset management and full commercial orientation of its

activities.

39 An unofficial English translation is attached in Appendix 2. 40 VEC plans presently to invest around US dollar 1,844 million up to 2011, equivalent to about 42.86 per cent of the total investment

volume up to the year 2020.



Table 6.1 Selected VEC Institutional Capabilities & Capacities

Issues Observations Preliminary capability and capacity rating

Transport Sector Policy Formulation

Currently outside mandate & playing field of VEC. However, this may become important once VEC is converted into a limited liability or shareholding company that must be commercially viable.

Currently not applicable

After conversion, VEC must make contribution, inter alia, to policy fields such as "road transport sector competitive environment", "toll rate determination” and "toll rate adjustment mechanisms".

Project Identification & Planning

The actual process during which expressway and/or "other transport infrastructure" are identified and formulated is not clear. That leaves VEC little room to select projects with high "profitability"

Low

Business Plan Development, Monitoring & Verification

The current investment program which reflects a prioritized long-list of projects was undertaken by an out-house consultant. VEC appears to have, at present, little in-house expertise to verify the proposed investment program.

Low

Review of F/S: Technical Aspects

VEC's "Project Technical Division" is presently responsible for project preparation & implementation, construction supervision and QM. The Division is staffed with 21 persons in Ha Noi.

Medium

Review of F/S: Economic & Financial Analysis

VEC relies currently on the economic and financial results received from other institutions, such as TEDI. A critical review of such results appears not to be undertaken.

Low

Demand Modeling & Demand Analysis

Accurate demand analysis is the central key to ensure accuracy of the economic and financial viability of and individual project. VEC does not undertake its own "sector" and/or "project-related" demand modeling. This is a core-deficiency.

Low

Construction Supervision & Construction Quality Management

After conversion issues that may become critical are, inter alia, construction supervision and QM (claims management).

Medium to High

Customer's Service Orientation

Will become important once VEC becomes the owner & operator of expressways.

Currently not applicable

Toll collecting VEC has presently no toll collecting experience & little in depth knowledge of modern toll collecting systems and their operational implications.

Low

Road Maintenance VEC has presently no experience in this type of activity, but needs to develop in-house expertise.

Low

Management Information System (including a FMIS)

Is at present not institutionalized, but will be needed once VEC becomes a commercial expressway investor and operator.

Low

Staff Motivation Staff motivation levels are high but need to be tailored more toward a "commercial thinking".

Medium to High



6.2 Summary of Expressway Investment Plan 2008 to 2025

277. Recently, MOT has submitted the expressway master plan on November 2007, (No. 7056/TTg-BGTVT) and the approval by Prime Minister has been given on December 2008 (No. 1734/QD-TTg). The outline is that the total length is 5,873 km (including 120 km on operation), of which 2,512 km up to year 2020, and 3,241 km after year 2020. The expressways of Cau Gie – Ninh Binh, Noi Bai – Lao Cai, Long Thanh – Dau Giay, and Ben Luc – Long Thanh are included into the category of planned section up to 2020.

278. VEC is mandated with the implementation of selected expressway priority projects that form part of the recent expressway master plan (MP) attached to the Decision 1734/QD-TTg dated 01 December 2008 signed by the Prime Minister. The master plan comprises thirty-nine (39) expressway investment projects that are prioritized by the period before 2020 and afterwards as summarized in Table 6.2.

Table 6.2 Viet Nam Proposed Expressway Network Development Plan up to 2020 and beyond

Before 2020 Beyond 2020

22 projects 17 projects

Total length: 2,512 km Total length: 3,241 km

Total cost: US $ 18890 million Total cost: US $ 24,156 million

Source: Decision 1734/2008/QD-TTg dated 01 December 2008 Note: Total cost is defined as cost before financing and expressed in 2009 US dollar constant price base

(1US$ = VND 17,800).

279. Out of the twenty two (22) expressway projects listed in the expressway master plan for implementation before 2020, six projects are approved for VEC management. Out of the six projects, only four (4), namely:

� Cau Gie – Ninh Binh (presently under construction) � Noi Bai - Lao Cai (presently under construction and tender stage), � Hochiminh - Long Thanh – Dau Giay (presently under construction and tender stage) � Ben luc - Long thanh (presently in its FS)

280. are covered by the present financial viability consideration of VEC. The other two, which are Ha noi – Lang son and Ha long – Mong cai are expected to be designed in 2010. The management of these two projects will also be outsourced to consulting firms. The six projects under VEC management are summarized in Table 6.3.



Table 6.3 Expressway Projects Approved for VEC management

Status Tentative Sources of Funds (US$ millions)

Expressway Name Start

constr Start

operat Length (km) Gvt. Gvt.

bonds ODA Invt. Cost

Cau Gie - Ninh Binh on-going 2013 50 x x 482.17

Noi Bai - Lao Cai on-going 2013 244 x ADB 1,216.054

HCM - Long Thanh - Dau Giay on-going 2013 55 x ADB, JBIC 932.396

Ben Luc - Long Thanh 2012 2016 58 x ADB, JICA 1,674.302

Ha Noi - Lang Son 2010* tbd 130 x Chinese ODA/ BOT

740.00

Ha Long - Mong Cai 2010* tbd 128 x Chinese ODA/ BOT

837.60

Total 665 5,882.522

Sources: Decision 1734/2008/QD-TTg dated 01 December 2008 Decision 412/2007/QD-TTg dated 11 April 2007 * Tentative dates for conducting feasibility study and not start of construction dates.

tbd = to be determined; Investment cost of HN-LS and HL-MC is without FCDD.

281. Table 6.4 provides the tentatively estimated drawdown schedule. It is tentatively estimated that the four projects, if implemented as planned, will have a total investment cost of US dollar 4,304.9 million with the peak for investment financing falling into the years 2011 (US dollar 751.38 million) and 2012 (US dollar 1,179.6 million), equivalent to 44.86 per cent of the total approved investment cost for VEC’s expressway package over the period. The four expressway projects have a total length of 407 km, equivalent to 61 per cent of total length of VEC managed expressways planned under the Prime Minister’s approval list.

6.3 Basic Assumptions for Consolidated Institutional Financial Viability Analysis

282. The results of indicators regarding individual project’s financial viability indicators and VEC profitability are dependent variables of (i) the magnitude of engineering base cost estimates; (ii) the engineering draw down schedules, including the construction methods; (iii) the financing plans underlying each individual project and the financing charges arising from the selected financing plans, (iv) potential delays in project realization; (v) projected physical traffic demand, (vi) the gross revenue streams that result from the physical demand and its related toll rate, (vii) the operating and maintenance costs during project lifetime, and (viii) the value added tax (VAT) as well as corporate income tax (CIT) regime applicable to the Vietnam Expressways Corporation (VEC).



Table 6.4 VEC Tentative Expressway Draw-Down Schedule & Related Investment Cost �Unit: US$ million�

Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 TOTALExpressway Project Length CG-NB 50 131.56 38.37 100.29 105.22 106.73 482.17NB-LC 244 1.18 298.54 316.49 374.18 165.48 28.47 29.31 2.40 1,216.04HCM-LT-DG 55 66.92 294.88 161.41 171.85 183.32 26.78 6.67 6.76 6.86 6.95 932.40BL-LT 58 157.82 515.37 289.95 305.12 321.18 28.99 29.77 8.91 8.53 8.65 1,674.29

TOTAL 407 198.48 334.43 560.24 751.38 1,179.60 482.21 340.26 357.25 38.24 36.72 8.91 8.53 8.65 4,304.90

[1] So far, 131.56mil was disbursed for the construction of CG-NB expressway. Although the construction has started

since 2006, this amount was assumed to be spent in 2008. The drawdown schedule for the rest of expected investment cost in the next 4 years (2009 - 2012) is assumed at: 2009 = 10%; 2010 = 30%, 2011 = 30% and 2012 = 30% for remaining construction cost. The disbursement of other three projects is taken from respective FSs.

[2] A review of the Noi bai – Lao cai feasibility study has been taken since September 2009 and data is taken from tentative estimations of consultants.

[3] The Ho chi minh – Long thanh – Dau giay (HLD) expressway data is collected from the local financial consultant of the Ho chi minh – Long thanh – Dau giay Technical Assistance Project.

[4] It is assumed that the FC is 46% of the engineering base cost and the LC the balance of 54%. [5] During construction period, bond interest is treated as FCDD, capitalized into investment cost and financed by

extra bond issuance.

283. The following fundamental assumptions were used to determine the consolidated financial viability of VEC:

284. Engineering base cost. Engineering base cost (EBC) for the CG-NB is taken from the Prime Minister’s decision approving CG-NB total investment cost. EBC of NB-LC, HCM-HCM-LT-DG and BL-LT expressways is taken from the cost estimate undertaken from the project’s FSs.

285. FC and LC components. All expressways follow the technical design standards for 4L expressways. It is assumed, therefore that the share FC: LC is a constant of EBC at FC = 45% and LC = 55%

286. Management and tender assistance. This component was estimated as a share of EBC.

287. Engineering Draw down schedule. So far, 131.56mil was disbursed for the construction of CG-NB expressway. Although the construction has started from 2006, this amount was assumed to be spent in 2008. The drawdown schedule for the rest of expected investment cost in the next 4 years (2009 - 2012) is assumed at: 2009 = 10%; 2010 = 30%, 2011 = 30% and 2012 = 30% for construction cost.

288. Although loan agreement between the Government of Vietnam and ADB was signed in 2007, no disbursement has been made due to project delay. Data for the Noi bai – Lao cai expressway is extracted from the financial review part in the Noibai – Lao cai FS Review TA, which has been started from September 2009 and due in 03 months. The disbursement of other two projects is taken from respective project’s FSs. In the review, resulting from price adjustment additional investment cost is required which is assumed to be financed by incremental OCR from ADB with current term and conditions specified in Table 6.5.

289. Government contribution. US dollar 56mil equity of VEC was spent on the construction of the CG-NB expressway. A grant (or subsidy) is assumed to be provided by the Government in both the HCM-HCM-LT-DG and BL-LT projects. Domestic contribution in the others (CG-NB and NB-LC) is funded by government-backed corporate bonds. It is also assumed that the Government’s financial support in the form of equity contribution can be treated in the analyses as “sunk cost”41, since the Government does not expect any “return-on-equity” (ROE).

41 In this analysis, terms including grant, subsidy, equity, government contribution and sunk cost are replaceable. These terms can

be understood as forms of financial support from the Government aiming at raising the projects’ financial viability and showing the Government’s strong commitment in developing expressways.



290. IDC. The basis for computing interest during construction (IDC) is the engineering draw down schedule and the terms & conditions of ADB’s ADF and OCR lending facilities for the Noi Bai – Lao Cai and HCM-LT-DG expressways. Also JBIC’s conditions are applied for the calculation of JBIC’s portion in HCM-LT-DG. Besides, terms and conditions of a co-financier (currently unknown) are applied in the estimation of ICD in BL-LT project. In both CG-NB and NB-LC projects, ICD of bonds is assumed to be financed by extra bonds.

291. Financing requirements. IDC and financing cost during development (FCDD) are a dependent variable of (i) the engineering draw down and (ii) lending terms & conditions.

292. Interest and loan repayment schedule considerations. For internationally funded sources, interest starts accruing with the date of signature under the loan agreement (L/A). For 15-year-maturity bond, interest is paid by annual coupon and principal is returned after 15 years since the issuance date.

293. The assumed loan conditions are shown in the following Table.

Table 6.5 Assumed Loan Conditions

Loan Condition ADF Interest rate: 1.0% during grace period, and 1.5% for the remaining years

Total Repayment 32 years: Grace period of 8 years and net repayment of 24 years On-lending interest rate: 0.2% (After On-Lending: 1.2% (during grace period), and 1.7% for the remaining years) Amortization schedule: equal amortization

OCR (NB-LC) (previous)

Interest rate: 2.92% (5 Years Libor 2.72% plus Spread 0.2%) On-Lending interest rate (0.2%) Total Repayment 27 years (Grace period: 7 years and net repayment of 20 years) After On-lending interest rate : 3.12% Commitment charge: 0.15% on un-disbursed balance. Amortization schedule: Installment schedule is determined using annuity basis with 10% discount rate

OCR (HCM-LT-DG)

Interest rate: 4.98% (5 Years Libor 4.78% plus Spread 0.2%) On-Lending interest rate (0.2%) After On-lending interest rate : 5.18% Total Repayment 25 years (Grace period: 5 years and net repayment of 20 years) Commitment charge: 0.15% on un-disbursed balance Amortization schedule: Installment schedule is determined using annuity basis with 10% discount rate.

OCR (BL-LT) Interest rate: 3.01% (5 Years Libor 2.81% plus Spread 0.2%) On-Lending interest rate (0.2%) After On-lending interest rate : 3.21% Total Repayment 25 years (Grace period: 5 years and net repayment of 20 years) Commitment charge: 0.35% on un-disbursed balance Amortization schedule: Installment schedule is determined using annuity basis with 10% discount rate.

JBIC (civil work)

Interest rate: 1.2% during grace period and the remaining years On-lending interest rate: 0.2% (After On-Lending: 1.4%) Total Repayment 28 years: Grace period of 8 years and net repayment of 20 years Amortization schedule: equal amortization

JBIC (consultancy)

Interest rate: 0.01% during grace period and the remaining years On-lending interest rate: 0.2% (After On-Lending: 0.21%) Total Repayment 28 years: Grace period of 8 years and net repayment of 20 years Amortization schedule: equal amortization

Co-financier of BL-LT (civil work)

Interest rate: 1.2% On-Lending interest rate (0.2%) After On-lending interest rate : 1.4% Total Repayment 30 years (Grace period: 10 years and net repayment of 20 years) Amortization schedule: Equal amortization

Co-financier of BL-LT (consultancy)

Interest rate: 0.01% On-Lending interest rate (0.2%) After On-lending interest rate : 0.21% Total Repayment 30 years (Grace period: 10 years and net repayment of 20 years) Amortization schedule: Equal amortization

Bond 15 Years bond with interest rate of 11%/year (The interest rate during construction period is capitalized)



294. The Noi Bai – Lao Cai expressway. Project cost will be funded by ADB’s OCR, ADF, and government-backed corporate bonds. ADF can and will only be used for the Noi Bai – Lao Cai Expressway in the ceiling amount of US dollar 200 million because of its poverty alleviation target. The funding needed apart from government-backed corporate bonds (US dollar 120 million) and ADF (US dollar 202 million) will be met by OCR from ADB. In 2007, ADB agreed to lend US dollar 896 million (with FCDD) for the construction of the expressway. The incremental amount of OCR is estimated as a remaining balance deducting the OCR (previous) amount from the total required OCR amount. For ADB’s OCR and ADF loans, VEC will borrow the funds from Ministry of Finance on an on-lending basis. The on-lending premium of 0.2% per annum additional to the interest rate of ADB loans is assumed.

Table 6.6 Financing Drawdown for Noi Bai – Lao Cai Project �Unit: US$ million�

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total

OCR 1.18 139.76 255.39 302.23 142.39 26.13 26.94 894.02 ADF 38.79 61.11 71.95 23.1 2.34 2.37 2.4 202.06 Subsidy 120 120

Total 1.18 298.55 316.5 374.18 165.49 28.47 29.31 2.4 1,216.08

295. The Long Thanh – Dau Giay expressway project costs are financed by a US dollar 516.5 million JBIC loan (with FCDD), US dollar 410 million from ADB (with FCDD) and US dollar 5.72 million to be funded by the Government.

Table 6.7 Financing Drawdown for Long Thanh – Dau Giay Project �Unit: US$ million�

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total

ADB (OCR) 66.916 182.309 43.468 46.706 50.597 20.202 410.198

JBIC 110.11 116.909 124.065 131.597 6.578 6.67 6.763 6.857 6.953 516.502

Govt contribution 2.46 1.03 1.08 1.13 5.7

Total 179.486 300.248 168.613 179.433 57.175 26.872 6.763 6.857 6.953 932.4

296. The Cau Gie –Ninh Binh expressway is funded totally domestically by the government contribution (US dollar 56 million) and bond issuance with annual coupon rate of 11%.

Table 6.8 Financing Drawdown for Cau Gie – Ninh Binh Project �Unit: US$ million�

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total

Equity 56.002 56.002

Bond 75.562 38.369 100.287 105.225 106.728 426.169

Totals 131.564 38.369 100.287 105.225 106.728 482.171

297. In the Ben Luc – Long Thanh expressway project, it is assumed that the Project cost will be funded by the basic scheme of co-financing between ADB and Co-financiers. The assumed financing sources are ADB’s OCR, Co financier’s Loans (for civil work component and for consultancy component), and government contribution through VEC. The government contribution is assumed to be granted by the state budget to improve the project feasibility. It is assumed that regarding ADB’s OCR and Co financier’s Loans, VEC will borrow the funds from Ministry of Finance on an on-lending basis, with the assumed on-lending premium of 0.2% per annum additional to each loan. Although the road construction is expected to start from 2012 within four years, some disbursement is to be made in 2011 on land acquisition, compensation and resettlement as well as in the tax portion.



Table 6.9 Financing Drawdown for Ben Luc – Long Thanh Project �Unit: US$ million�

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total

ADB (ADF) 12.02 0.4 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.46 0.47 0.49 15.13

ADB (OCR) 5.64 178.27 143.14 151.76 160.91 20.34 20.99 681.05

Co financier (Civil) 0 168.23 131.49 137.89 144.63 8.15 8.27 8.38 8.5 8.62 624.16

Co financier (Consul) 0 5.03 3.87 4.01 4.16 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 17.27

Govt contribution 140.16 163.45 11.04 11.04 11.04 336.73

Total 157.82 515.38 289.96 305.13 321.18 28.99 29.77 8.91 8.54 8.66 1,674.34

298. Tax. VAT (10%) is assumed to be charged to the toll revenues. VEC is subject to a tax preferential scheme according to the Decree 164/ND-CP dated December 22, 2003 as shown in the Table below. Whenever negative profit occurs, the loss is deductible from positive profit before tax of the following (maximum five) year(s).

Table 6.10 VEC’s CIT tax preferential scheme

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ….

0% 0% 50% x 20%

50% x 20%

50% x 20%

20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 25% 25% 25%

exemption exemption reduction reduction reduction reduction reduction reduction reduction reduction common common common

299. Depreciation. Depreciation of the expressway assets is computed over 40 years.

300. Physical demand. Is measured in “PCU units”. The estimated demand forecast for the individual expressway projects was taken from the following data sources:

� Cau Gie – Ninh Binh. The demand is based on the data stated in the 2002 feasibility study undertaken by Transport Engineering Design Incorporated (TEDI)

� Noi Bai – Lao Cai. The demand is based on modeling exercise undertaken by the technical assistance project implemented by PCI.

� Long Thanh – Dau Giay. The demand is based on modeling exercise undertaken by the current technical assistance project

� Ben Luc – Long Thanh: The demand is based on modeling exercise undertaken by the current technical assistance project

301. Demand projections for the individual expressways using VND 365/km; VND 601/km and VND 800/km are summarized in Table 6.11. Table 6.12 summarizes estimated demand after adjusting the toll rates for all expressways to VND 800/km by using an elasticity factor between toll rate level and number of trips.

Table 6.11 Traffic Demand Projections at Various Toll Rates (Unit: PCU/day)

Expressway Name 2009 2012 2013 2022

Cau Gie - Ninh Binh [VND 372/km] 38,241 55,937 63,327 116,578

Noibai - Laocai [VND 800/km] 9,400 27,300

Long Thanh - Dau Giay [VND 602/km] 49,641 117,187



Table 6.12 Traffic Demand Projections at Toll Rate of VND 800/km (Unit: PCU/day)

Expressway Name 2009 2012 2013 2022

Cau Gie - Ninh Binh 27,281 39,905 45,177 83,167

Noi Bai - Lao Cai 9,400 27,300

Long Thanh - Dau Giay 40,999 96,785

302. Toll rate and revenue estimations. The demand estimations produce PCU/daily traffic. The daily traffic is converted into PCU/km/day and multiplied by 365 calendar days. This seems justified, since actual traffic counts show very little hourly and weekday variations. The annual traffic demand is then converted into gross toll revenues by using the assumed toll rate. Annual revenues in VND are adjusted for inflation by 5% annually and converted into US dollar base. However, the toll adjustment is made once every five years to avoid objection from road users. The conversion into US dollar is undertaken by using the assumed exchange rate with an assumed depreciation rate of the VND against the dollar of 1.3% per annum. The revenue stream is capped once the physical traffic reached technical design capacity for a 4-lane expressway. In projects’ FS, there are different assumptions of toll rate level applying to deferent projects, as follows:

Table 6.13 Toll rate level applied to projects in their FSs

CG-NB VND 800/km NB-LC VND 1,100/km HCM-LT-DG VND 900/km BL-LT VND 1,500/km

303. O&M cost. For the Noi Bai – Lao Cai expressway, the routine O/M costs at 2007 price were approximately US$ 4.57 million per annum, and the periodical maintenance including overlay was US$ 21.31 million every 8 years. Using price adjustment, the routine O/M costs at 2009 price are estimated to be approximately US$ 5.95 million per annum. The periodical maintenance including overlay at 2009 price is estimated to be US$ 27.70 million. O&M cost assume (i) toll collection cost and routine maintenance; (ii) Periodic maintenance is estimated and introduced every eight years in NB-LC project and ten years in HCM-LT-DG project.

304. The projected O&M costs of Hochiminh-Longthanh-Daugiay expressway, also comprising annual routine costs and periodic road maintenance costs, are based on the results of engineering studies. The annual O&M costs are approximately $0.6 million at 2007 prices. The cost of periodic maintenance to overlay the highway is assumed to be $5 million every 10 years starting in 2020. It is assumed that these O&M costs will increase in accordance with the domestic inflation rate of 5% per annum.

305. In the BL-LT project, periodic maintenance also takes place every 7 years, but actual disbursement is made equally in each of the seven-year period. The maintenance equipment is replaced every ten years. The routine O/M costs at 2009 price are approximately US$ 6.456 million per annum, which is comprising the operation cost of US$ 4.532 million and the maintenance cost of US$ 0.829 million, and the electricity cost for highway lighting of US$ 1.095 million. The periodical maintenance including overlay is assumed to be US$ 23.975 million every 7 years. The actual disbursement of periodical maintenance cost is assumed to be done partially in annual average basis from year 2021 (annual amount of US$ 3.425 million). The O/M costs are assumed to be increased in accordance with the inflation rate of 5% per annum.



6.4 VEC`s Financial Position 2006 – 2008

6.4.1 VEC’s Income Statement (Unit: USD)

ITEM 2006 2007 2008 Income from Sales & Services 270,607 0 0 Deduction of Revenue 0 0 0 Net income from Sales & Services 270,607 0 0 Cost of Goods Sold 270,607 0 0 Gross Incomes from Sales & Services 0 0 0 Income from Financial Activities 541,076 160,155 357,134 Financial Activities Expenses 0 0 0 Sales Cost 0 0 0 Administrative Cost 196,214 160,155 357,134 Net Profit from Business Activities 344,862 0 0 Other Income 0 0 0 Other Expenses 0 0 0 Other Profit 0 0 0 Gross Profit before Tax 344,862 0 0 Current Corporate Income Tax 0 0 0 Deferred Corporate Income Tax 0 0 0 Profit after Income Tax 344,862 0 0

6.4.2 VEC’s Cash Flow Statement (Unit: USD)

ITEM 2006 2007 2008 I. Net Cash Flow of Business Activities 1. Income of Sale, Services 604,349 124,294 1,181,427 2. Payment to Suppliers (18,168,698) (27,300,758) (71,166,744) 3. Payment to Employees (195,441) (277,503) (367,946) 4. Payment of Loan Interest 0 0 (2,052,529) 5. Other Income from Business Activities 8,351,651 33,916,562 2,409,466 6. Other Payment for Business Activities (3,789,855) (24,041,427) (1,197,746)

Net Cash Flow of Business Activities (13,197,994) (17,578,832) (71,194,072) II. Cash Flow Investment Activities 1. Payment for Procurement (123,255) 0 (207,022) 2. Payment for Loan 0 0 (73,899,837) 3. Receipt from Loans 0 0 63,929,612 4. Contribution into Other Companies 0 0 (1,278,090)

Net Cash Flow Investment Activities (123,255) 0 (11,455,336) III. Cash Flow Financial Activities 1. Receipt from Stocks Issuance 5,117,748 17,480,207 10,865,720 2. Payment for Contribution 0 (4,152) 0 3. Receipt of Loans 0 0 77,143,867 4. Payment for Loan Principal 0 0 (4,499,337)

Net Cash Flow Financial Activities 5,117,748 17,476,055 83,510,251 Net Cash Flow in Period (8,203,501) (102,777) 860,842 Cash & Cash Equivalent at Opening Balance 8,829,296 625,796 523,019 Effect of Change in Exchange Rate 0 0 12,812 Cash & Cash Equivalent at Closing Balance 625,796 523,019 1,396,673



6.4.3 VEC’s Balance Sheet (Unit: USD)

Assets 31/12/2006 31/12/2007 31/12/2008 A. SHORT-TERM ASSETS 14,749,780 37,944,936 90,604,692 I. Cash and Cash Equivalents 625,796 523,019 1,396,673 II. Short-term Financial Investment 561,798 14,243,258 24,213,483 III. Receivables 13,395,315 22,482,626 63,786,933 IV. Inventories 0 0 0 V. Other Short-term Assets 166,872 696,033 1,207,603

B. LONG-TERM ASSETS 6,870,759 29,130,287 65,819,031 I. Long-term receivable 0 II. Fixed assets 6,870,759 29,130,287 64,540,941 III. Long-term Investments 0 0 1,278,090

TOTAL ASSETS 21,620,539 67,075,223 156,423,723 LIABILITIES AND EQUITY A. DEBTS 133,674 24,690,884 99,819,264 I. Short-term debts 131,480 2,213,729 8,029,616 II. Long-term debts 2,194 22,477,155 91,789,648

B. EQUITY 21,486,865 42,384,339 56,604,459 I. Equity 21,334,177 42,197,597 56,279,985 II. Others state-funded sources and funds 152,688 186,742 324,474

TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY 21,620,539 67,075,223 156,423,723

306. The financial management system in VEC is in its early stage of development, due to VEC`s short life in existence (starting from October 2004). Most of the financial activities are performed by the Accounting and Financial Department, which has 11 staff including 1 chief accountant, 2 deputy chief and other 08 accountants whose work load is related to cash payment and infrastructure accounting. The code of conduct or job description for each position have not been clearly stated.

307. Based on accounting and financial regulation issued by MOF applying to companies in general (Decision15/2006/QD-BTC dated March 20, 2006) and the financial regulation issued by MOT in November 2006 specifically applicable to VEC (Decision 2547/2006/QD-BGTVT dated November 22, 2006, financial statements including Income Statement, Cash Flow, Balance Sheet and Explanatory Note are formulated. This report extracts main parts of the first there in three years (2006-2008), all of which are audited by an independent auditor (Auditing & Informatic Services Company Limited – AISC). Regulations are strictly followed during the development of these reports.

308. The finance and accounting department is responsible for funds and asset management, and implementation of financial accounting and bookkeeping. Financial reports are prepared by accountants using a computerized accounting system connected to all transactions in an online general ledger. The reports are reviewed by an internal auditing control board, and audited by an independent external auditor annually. External auditor has reviewed the audited financial statements of the past years and rated satisfactory with unqualified opinion. The financial management system and VEC staff are considered adequate for accounting purposes.

309. Over the last three years, VEC totally depends on deposit interest to spend on their administrative costs. This source of income, although fluctuates through years, is unsustainable. The rise in 2008 came from higher interest rate (doubled the rate in 2007) and undisbursed amount of issued bonds. In the future, when borrowing by issuing long-term bond (normally 1- to 15 years), VEC has to pay higher interest rate despite of the Government guarantee, that may exceed demand interest rate earned from banks. Similarly, disbursement rate will be higher in coming years when expressway plans are implemented leading to lower unused cash and interest earnings.

310. Assets of the company have increased over time, partially from higher equity gained from road fee collection at Cau gie Southern Station and mostly from long-term bonds. In 2007, VEC issued US $ 22.47mil 15-year bond with 9% interest rate. In 2008, another US $ 39.33mil 5-year bond was issued with



the same rate. In-mid 2008, due to high inflation, the company had to pay 16% interest rate for US $ 28.09 mil bond with maturity ranging from 3 to 24 months. Although the short maturity put the company in liquidity risk, VEC can refinance that with cheaper funding when the high inflation is over. Currently, annual market rate decreased to 10-11% for long-term bond.

311. In contrast of the increase in assets, equity share decreases sharply (from 63% in 2007 to 36% in 2008) and the trend will continue resulting from huge borrowing on expressway construction. Loan, especially with long-term maturity, has risen from 0.01% in 2006 to 33% in 2007 and 58% in 2008. Currently, VEC’s ability to pay is moderate with the current ratio and quick ratio standing at 11.28 and 3.18, respectively (in 2008). Cash closing balance is positive and increasing in the last three years which is strongly attributed to borrowing inflow. Net cash flow from business and investment activities is negative in all three years. In the coming years, when payments are made to contractors for completed works, the company may have less cash in hand and face a severe liability risk. Given this situation, lenders may be reluctant to provide more loans without government guarantee.

312. To ensure its financial viability in the future, VEC is to diversify services. One of the main revenue sources is toll collection, which is currently regulated to be decided at VEC discretion in expressways under their management (see Appendix 3). However, due to expressways’ funding sources mainly from borrowings, the rate is expected to raise two or threefold to make them financially attractive to investors and lenders. Moreover, other activities like motels, restaurants, petrol station, and so on for road users are to be invested synchronously along with the road construction to generate extra income to the company when roads are put into use.

313. However, at the initial step of project preparation, the company needs more financial support from the Government. Currently, VEC is managing the construction of four (04) expressways, which cost more or less US dollar 1 billion each. The equity amount (US dollar 56 million) granted by the state obviously too small, creating too high debt ratio when all expressways are constructed. The Government encourages VEC to issue government-guaranteed long-term bonds, of which interest rate is controlled by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and unattractive to investors. Since the beginning of the year (2009), VEC continuously failed to issue 3 and 5-year-maturity due to low offered interest rate. MOF seems to be currently reluctant to raise the rate aiming at avoiding conflict with the low-interest-rate policy of the Government as a measure stimulating domestic business.

314. Given the importance of expressways contributing to the country’s infrastructure, which is an essential requirement of both domestic and foreign investors, it is necessary for the Government to grant more equity to VEC in line with the number of expressway assigned to VEC management. Even though all borrowings are backed by the Government, higher equity ratio will bring more trust to lenders regarding state commitment in constructing and operating expressways efficiently, as well as to increase projects’ efficiency.

315. VEC will be operating in expressway management, which is in itself a new concept in Viet Nam. Despite of the fact that the staff has experience of donor-financed projects, the complexity of expressway projects in the medium- and long-run will require new approaches to financing. Large occupational training is needed to improve their capability in handling these complicated projects in the future.

6.5 VEC Financial Viability Analysis 2008 to 2033

316. The following step-by-step methodology is employed to assess the institutional financial viability of VEC under the given master plan investment scenario for the four expressway projects with financial drawdown given in Table 6.6, 6.7, 6.8, 6.9 and toll rate level applied to each project stated in Table 6.13.

317. Step 1. Based on FS of each project, the financial drawdown schedule with FCDD is extracted. Total investment cost into the proposed four expressways over the period 2008 to 2020 are estimated at US dollar 4,304.89 million (including FCDD). Details of financing amount and sources of each project as well borrowing/equity share are shown in Table 6.14.



Table 6.14 Financing amount and sources and borrowing & equity share of each project

Project ADB (OCR)

ADB (ADF) JBIC Co-financier Bond Total loan Equity Total Loan

share Equity share

CG-NB 426.17 426.17 56.00 482.17 88.39% 11.61%NB-LC 894.02 202.00 1,096.02 120.00 1,216.02 90.13% 9.87%HCM-LT-DG 410.20 516.50 926.70 5.70 932.40 99.39% 0.61%BL-LT 696.19 641.39 1,337.58 336.72 1,674.30 79.89% 20.11%

Total 2,000.40 202.00 516.50 641.39 426.17 3,786.47 518.42 4,304.89 87.96% 12.04%

29. Step 2. O&M estimations comprise (i) cost for the main maintenance office and sub-maintenance offices, (ii) cost for toll collection, (iii) cost for maintenance of electric facilities, (iv) routine maintenance cost and periodic maintenance cost. O&M cost are also inflation adjusted over the life span of the projects. 30. Step 3. Consolidated gross revenues are estimated after physical demand measured in PCU and/or PCU/km/year is adjusted for different toll rate assumption. It is assumed that VEC will obtain the toll collection rights for the Cau Gie – Ninh Binh expressway that is under construction. Toll collection on that expressway is assumed to commence in 2013 in the first three projects and in 2016 in Ben Luc – Long Thanh expressway. Gross revenue streams are capped when physical demand reaches design capacity. Table 6.15 identifies gross revenue streams by expressway and consolidated revenue of VEC. 31. Step 4. The loan repayment schedule is determined based on lending terms & conditions as identified in Table 6.5. Table 6.16 presents the consolidated loan repayment schedule for the four expressway projects.

Table 6.15 Consolidated Toll Gross Revenue Streams (Unit: US$ million)

Year Cau Gie – Ninh Binh

Noi Bai – Lao Cai

Long Thanh – Dau Giay

Ben Luc – Long Thanh

Total of 4 expressways

2013 47.90 13.41 38.29 99.60 2014 55.34 35.35 41.59 132.28 2015 62.58 42.09 45.18 149.85 2016 69.62 48.65 57.54 32.39 208.20 2017 76.47 55.04 61.04 38.45 231.01 2018 106.11 61.25 64.76 44.71 276.83 2019 114.38 90.05 82.47 51.15 338.06 2020 122.43 97.92 87.49 58.12 365.96 2021 130.25 105.57 92.09 86.96 414.86 2022 137.84 113.01 114.96 96.34 462.16 2023 184.59 120.24 121.00 105.93 531.76 2024 193.00 170.31 127.36 115.69 606.36 2025 198.05 178.70 157.54 125.62 659.91 2026 202.93 186.84 160.14 181.61 731.53 2027 207.66 194.75 162.91 195.31 760.62 2028 270.86 202.42 195.51 208.91 877.70 2029 276.50 280.84 199.18 218.77 975.29 2030 281.95 290.50 203.05 226.79 1,002.29 2031 287.21 299.87 232.04 309.86 1,128.99 2032 287.04 308.95 229.07 314.24 1,139.29 2033 366.07 316.99 226.13 314.97 1,224.16 2034 365.75 429.67 258.41 311.27 1,365.10 2035 365.37 434.92 255.09 307.40 1,362.78 2036 364.94 439.97 251.82 406.25 1,462.97 2037 364.46 444.81 287.77 401.03 1,498.08 2038 459.18 449.46 284.08 395.89 1,588.61 2039 453.29 607.45 280.43 390.80 1,731.97 Total 6,051.75 6,019.06 4,316.97 4,938.45 21,326.24



Table 6.16 Consolidated Principal Loan Repayment Schedule (Unit: m US$)

Year Cau Gie – Ninh Binh

Noi Bai – Lao Cai

HCM-Long Thanh –

Dau Giay Ben Luc –

Long Thanh Total of 4

expressways

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 7.16 7.16 2015 7.88 7.88 2016 15.61 8.67 24.28 2017 25.59 9.53 35.12 2018 27.31 36.31 11.89 75.51 2019 29.19 37.36 13.71 80.26 2020 31.27 38.51 15.02 84.80 2021 33.56 39.78 48.53 121.87 2022 36.07 41.18 50.11 127.36 2023 75.56 38.84 42.71 51.85 208.96 2024 38.37 41.88 44.40 53.77 178.41 2025 100.29 45.22 46.26 55.87 247.64 2026 105.22 48.90 48.30 58.19 260.62 2027 106.73 52.95 50.55 60.74 270.97 2028 57.41 53.02 63.54 173.97 2029 62.31 55.74 66.63 184.67 2030 67.69 58.73 70.02 196.45 2031 73.62 62.02 73.75 209.40 2032 80.14 65.64 77.86 223.64 2033 87.31 69.63 82.37 239.31 2034 95.20 25.83 87.34 208.37 2035 103.88 25.83 92.80 222.51 2036 8.42 25.83 98.81 133.06 2037 8.42 25.83 105.42 139.67 2038 8.42 0.00 32.70 41.12 2039 8.42 32.70 41.12 2040 8.42 32.70 41.12 Total 426.17 1,096.05 926.70 1,336.32 3,785.24

318. Step 5. Table 6.17 summarizes the consolidated institutional picture for VEC as “the owner and operator” of all four expressways with toll rate applied shown in Table 6.13. In the initial analytical step the following performance indicators are assessed:

� Is the net revenue stream sufficient to cover O&M expenditures, and � Is the cash flow after O/M cost and tax sufficient to cover debt service?



Tabl

e 6.

17 V

EC F

inan

cial

Via

bilit

y 20

08 to

203

5 (U

nit:

m U

S$)

Year

In

v.

Stre

am 4

pr

ojec

ts

Gro

ss

reve

nue

stre

am

VAT

10%

O

&M

C

ost

Dep

re-

ciat

ion

Inte

rest

Prof

it be

fore

ta

x Pr

ofit

afte

r tax

Acc

. Pr

ofit

afte

r tax

Net

cas

h flo

w

Acc

. Net

C

F

Cas

h av

ail.

for

debt

se

rvic

e

Tota

l de

bt

serv

ice

DSC

R

Deb

t R

atio

2008

19

8.48

2009

33

4.43

2010

56

0.23

2011

75

1.39

2012

1,

179.

60

2013

48

2.21

99.6

0 9.

96

9.38

45.9

246

.88

-12.

54-1

2.54

-12.

5433

.39

33.7

380

.27

46.8

81.

71

89.6

%

2014

34

0.26

132.

28

13.2

3 9.

9861

.13

67.9

4-2

0.00

-20.

00-3

2.54

33.9

767

.70

109.

0775

.10

1.45

90

.7%

2015

35

7.26

149.

85

14.9

9 10

.63

61.1

367

.55

-4.4

5-4

.45

-36.

9948

.80

116.

5112

4.23

75.4

31.

65

91.3

%

2016

38

.24

208.

20

20.8

2 20

.18

95.7

694

.77

-23.

34-2

3.34

-60.

3348

.15

164.

6616

7.20

119.

051.

40

91.8

%

2017

36

.72

231.

01

23.1

0 21

.43

95.7

696

.82

-6.1

1-6

.11

-66.

4454

.53

219.

1918

6.47

131.

941.

41

92.0

%

2018

8.

9127

6.83

27

.68

22.7

695

.76

95.6

135

.01

35.0

1-3

1.43

67.1

628

6.35

226.

3913

3.40

1.70

91

.1%

2019

8.

5333

8.06

33

.81

24.1

795

.76

102.

6881

.65

69.0

937

.66

97.6

738

4.02

267.

5316

9.86

1.58

89

.4%

2020

8.

6536

5.96

36

.60

33.1

295

.76

100.

8299

.66

74.7

411

2.41

100.

0948

4.11

271.

3217

1.23

1.58

87

.7%

2021

414.

86

41.4

9 89

.96

95.7

610

7.38

80.2

760

.20

172.

6149

.93

534.

0426

3.35

213.

421.

23

86.1

%

2022

462.

16

46.2

2 36

.39

95.7

610

4.81

178.

9813

5.76

308.

3712

1.58

655.

6233

6.33

214.

761.

57

82.8

%

2023

531.

76

53.1

8 47

.71

96.7

110

2.08

232.

0917

4.07

482.

4480

.97

736.

5937

2.86

291.

891.

28

78.5

%

2024

606.

36

60.6

4 41

.17

97.6

690

.86

316.

0323

7.03

719.

4617

7.34

913.

9342

5.55

248.

211.

71

73.3

%

2025

659.

91

65.9

9 43

.79

97.6

683

.54

368.

9327

6.70

996.

1614

9.89

1,06

3.82

457.

9030

8.01

1.49

67

.1%

2026

731.

53

73.1

5 46

.52

97.6

669

.20

444.

9933

3.74

1,32

9.90

196.

271,

260.

0950

0.61

304.

341.

64

60.1

%

2027

760.

62

76.0

6 49

.49

97.6

654

.09

483.

3136

2.48

1,69

2.39

217.

211,

477.

3151

4.23

297.

021.

73

53.1

%

2028

877.

70

87.7

7 63

.65

97.6

638

.56

590.

0744

2.55

2,13

4.94

397.

081,

874.

3957

8.77

181.

683.

19

46.7

%

2029

975.

29

97.5

3 14

4.92

97.6

634

.48

600.

7045

0.53

2,58

5.46

397.

442,

271.

8358

2.67

185.

233.

15

41.0

%

2030

1,00

2.29

10

0.23

59

.74

97.6

630

.10

714.

5753

5.93

3,12

1.39

474.

462,

746.

2966

3.69

189.

233.

51

35.2

%

2031

1,12

8.99

11

2.90

63

.17

97.6

625

.38

829.

8862

2.41

3,74

3.80

551.

723,

298.

0274

5.45

193.

723.

85

29.6

%

2032

1,13

9.29

11

3.93

66

.81

97.6

620

.28

840.

6163

0.46

4,37

4.26

549.

633,

847.

6574

8.40

198.

773.

77

24.7

%

2033

1,22

4.16

12

2.42

83

.55

98.6

514

.78

904.

7767

8.58

5,05

2.84

587.

594,

435.

2479

2.01

204.

423.

87

20.1

%

2034

1,36

5.10

13

6.51

74

.73

99.6

410

.07

1,04

4.15

783.

115,

835.

9572

9.02

5,16

4.26

892.

8216

3.80

5.45

16

.4%

2035

1,36

2.78

13

6.28

79

.04

99.6

46.

231,

041.

5978

1.19

6,61

7.14

718.

425,

882.

6888

7.06

168.

645.

26

13.1

%



319. The following preliminary findings can be drawn from the picture that emerges, if all four expressway projects are implemented in accordance with the investment schedule as indicated in Table 6.4, if all financing plan assumptions are kept as assumed in the analysis and if the time horizon for calculations is 25 years since now (2008-2035).

320. Finding 1 Toll rate assumptions. Physical demand in PCU and/or PCU/km/year is a dependent variable of (i) toll rate assumptions and (ii) expressway influence area and network demand. Due to interest conflict, the stand alone viability considerations by TEDI and VEC are based on different toll rates with a view to ascertain that individual expressways are “viable” from a debt service point of view only, i.e. they must be able to pay back debts from the first operational year onwards. The relationship between toll rate and traffic demand should be modeled using proven software.

321. Finding 2 Toll rate determination. Toll rate determination is at present based on tolls levied on national highways under the prevailing toll regulation and consultants’ selection from various levels varying from VND 500/km to VND 1,500/km. It is unclear whether the toll rate is or is not within the limits of user benefits. Even though, according to Government decision VEC is able to select a rate at their discretion for expressways under their management (see Appendix 3), a realistic toll rate should be based on user benefits and willingness-to pay, which can only be measured by a carefully taken survey and reliable model.

322. Finding 3 Toll rate increases. Viet Nam has at present no law/decree that would allow for transparent toll rate increases. However, the above financial considerations increase net revenue streams every five years by the assumed inflationary factor, thereby expressing gross revenues in nominal terms. Such assumption is theoretically correct and allowed under viability considerations. However, in reality and as the example in other countries shows, increasing nominal toll rates can be a troublesome exercise, since the public does not easily understand that the nominal price of tolls should keep pace with general inflation in the economy. Hence, gross revenue and therefore net revenue streams are overestimated in the above base case.

323. Finding 4 Demand estimations. As was observed above, Viet Nam has presently only limited capability to undertake network-wide demand estimations for the proposed network configuration. That leaves demand estimations undertaken on a “stand alone” basis highly vulnerable to unacceptable error margins. Physical demand, assumed toll rates and therefore estimated gross/net revenue streams are the “lifeline” when it comes to financial viability, either on a “case-by-case” basis and/or on a consolidated basis.

324. Finding 5 Financing plan. The Cau gie – Ninh binh expressway was decided to be constructed by sharing funding between VEC equity and domestically issued bonds with Government’s guarantee. ADB also pledged to support the construction of the Noi bai – Lao cai by a combination of ADF and OCR sources additional to government-back bonds issued by VEC. Financing plans of these roads are basically determined42. Financial plan of the Hochiminh-Longthanh-Daugiay expressway is discussed in paragraph 29 with terms and conditions shown in Table 6.5. Final decisions on fund sharing have not been made in the Benluc-Longthanh project, which should be based on (i) a viable business development plan of the implementing entity; (ii) the financial capacities of the implementing entity and (iii) the “merits” in economic and financial terms of each individual investment project.

325. Finding 6. Revenue and profits. VEC’s annual net revenue streams are either insufficient to cover O&M expenditures, interest and depreciation or slightly above costs over the first 05 years after putting the first three expressways (CG-NB, NB-LC and HCM-LT-DG) into operation. Profit after tax only climbs to a comfortable level from 2019 onwards.

326. Finding 7. Cash flow. Annual net cash flow is positive since the first year of operation (2013). This encouraging result might come from the assumption of a substantial free money from the Government in both the Noibai-Laocai and Benluc-Longthanh expressways.

327. Finding 8 DSCR. Together with increasing annual net revenues streams over years, debt service coverage ratio satisfies ADB requirement (1.3) in all years under consideration except 2021, when the ratio stands at 1.23, slightly lower than requirement. 42 The Noi bai – Lao cai FS is under a review with a TA funded by ADB due to out-of-date construction costs using 2007 price.

According to tentative result of the review, in order to improve the project’s financial viability, US$ 120million (previously assumed to be financed by Government-backed VEC-bond) should be funded in form of a subsidy from the Government of Vietnam with no requirement of interest and principal payment. Results of this review are applied to this analysis.



328. Finding 9 Financial leverage. After putting these expressways into operation, VEC debt ratio is considerably high with 88% in 2013. The ratio remains at the high level above 80% till 2022 when VEC start pay back loan to JBIC and other lenders (e.g. the co-financier in the BL-LT project). From 2022 onwards, the debt ratio decreases steadily and continuously to 13.1% in 2035. However, this picture may change if VEC continues borrowing to finance other expressways in the future such as the Hanoi – Langson or Halong – Mongcai.

329. Finding 10 Domestic debt burden. A large amount of bond is supposed to be issued to finance the Cau gie – Ninh binh expressway (US dollar 426.17 million). These bonds are backed by the Government and pay an annual interest rate of 11% in 15 years of their maturity. In early 2009, due to the economic recession occurring worldwide and in Vietnam, the Government introduced an interest rate support program with a 4% interest rate reduction for borrowing in working capital. VEC was eligible to borrow VND 1,000 billion (equivalent to US dollar 56.18 million) from a commercial bank paying 6% after-reduction interest rate. Besides, because of the high inflation rate, VEC had to issue VND 500 billion (equivalent to US dollar 28.09 million) bond with maturity ranging from 3 to 24 months in 2008, paying 16% yearly interest rate. These borrowings are to be matured very soon which will require VEC to continue issuing more bonds which are used to repay matured debts and finance new construction.

330. Finding 11 Domestic borrowing difficulties. The current economic situation in Vietnam is unstable and difficult to forecast. Due to the global economic crisis which negatively affected Vietnam socio-economic situation, the Government has to apply expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate domestic demand supporting business and rural/disadvantaged areas. The consequence of such policies might be a pressure on inflation and exchange rate. The gold price in both international and domestic markets is another issue causing distortion and difficulties to the economy. Both institutional and individual investors tend to select more safety investment options in real estate, gold, etc. and require higher interest rate for bonds, especially bonds with high maturity. Since the beginning of 2009, VEC has failed many times while trying to sell 3-year and 5-year maturity Government-guaranteed bonds in the capital market. Their bond interest rate which is capped by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) is usually lower than market requirement.

331. Given the current situation and macro-economic concerns in Vietnam, it will be very difficult to borrow by bonds, especially with long maturity or VEC has to pay higher rate as they did in 2008. This is not a easy solution to VEC because the rate is control by MOF, who is reluctant to increase interest to avoid creating pressures to the raise domestic interest rate. Moreover, high rate will erode VEC profit and harm its ability to pay which is very important to a company carrying high debt ratio like VEC.

332. Finding 12 Financial management system. Under the Hochiminh-Longthanh-Daugiay TA from ADB, a financial information system (FIS) is developed to help VEC in making a financially sustainable expressway investment plan that takes into account monitoring and planning cost-recovery tariff levels, forecasting traffic levels, making projected financial statements, and developing a debt-management strategy. The FIS setup is necessary and helpful to VEC in projecting and monitoring expressway plans. Currently, FIS is in the progress of transferring from the software developer.

333. In the present VEC organization, there is an internal audit/inspection committee reporting to the Management Board, which is directed by a graduate in finance. There is also a Finance and Accounting Department with the majority work load relating to accounting. The company lack a division specialized in financial management. The current Finance and Accounting Department is doing well in accounting and forming financial reports, collecting accounts receivable, formulating annual budget. However, they lack necessary skills in long-term budgeting and risk management which are essential for large company involving in infrastructure investment as VEC.

334. Finding 14. In summary, VEC under the given basket of assumptions with considerable government subsidy in the Noibai-Laocai (US$ 120mil) and the Benluc-Longthanh (US$ 336mil) expressways will be financial unstable and unprofitable over the period 2013 to 2017, and then enter a period of relatively high profitability. Its ability to pay is also positive with high DSCR since the first year of expressway operation. However, there is no firm confirmation of the Government regarding the mentioned subsidy, and data is unreliable far in the future.



6.6 Conclusions & Recommendations

335. The present institutional viability analysis undertaken for VEC had to make fundamental assumptions as regards project cost, traffic demand, toll rates, draw down schedule and financing plans, operational and maintenance cost. Hence, while the emerging picture is quite positive, the following “caveats” should be taken into account in an assessment of the institutional viability that should be undertaken in more detail in the near future:

336. Realistic revenue projections. VEC should establish an in-house capability and capacity to model demand on the road/expressway network, in order to achieve its own and independent estimations on “most likely revenue” scenarios. Revenues from tolls and retained earnings derived from such revenues43 are the long-term life-line of VEC’s financial viability. Project-wise and/or institution-wise financial viability is typically very sensitive to demand or revenue overestimations. There is out-house expertise that is currently charged by the GoV with undertaking pre-feasibility and/or feasibility studies for the proposed expressway projects. However, the data and recommendations of these studies are not critically checked and it appears to be unclear to what extent they comply with standard error margins allowable: pre-feasibility study error margin equal or < 25%; F/S error margin equal or < 10% and bankable F/S error margin equal or < 3%.

337. Toll rate setting. As the case under consideration shows, the individual expressways are investigated under different toll rate assumptions. This is unsatisfactory from a policy point of view, since its implies that “in reality” toll expressway users are charged differently for expressways of the same technical design standards. Toll rates should be determined based on realistically estimated user benefits. Also, while an attempt has been made to adjust the physical demand in this investigation to the assumed toll rate ranging from VND 800/km to VND 1,500/km, this can be hardly more than a very rough proxy.

338. Moreover, in all projects, traffic demand is converted from projected number of vehicles by vehicle type to PCU (passenger carrying unit) per kilometer per day before multiplying with the assumed toll rate to estimate revenue. However, in practice vehicles are to pay different toll rate levels depending on their types (e.g. car <8 seats, bus 8-15 seats, bus 16+ seats, truck <2.5t, truck 2 axles, truck 3 axles, truck 4+ axles, motorcycle, etc.). VEC should establish an in-house capability and capacity to project toll rate level by vehicle type making each project sufficiently viable in terms of finance.

339. Equity contributions. Currently, out of the three expressways under construction including Cau gie – Ninh binh, Noi bai – Lao cai and, the Government contributes only US dollar 56 million to the Cau gie – Ninh binh project in forms of VEC equity accounting for 11.62% project costs. Share of assumed Government contribution in the Hochiminh – Longthanh – Daugiay projects is marginal with 0.54%. The equity share in the Noibai-Laocai and Benelux – Longthanh is an assumption without firm commitment from the Government. The GoV through MOF considers an equity contribution as “sunk cost”, i.e. no return-on-equity (ROE) is expected. Hence, from a VEC point-of view the equity contribution is actually a subsidy and it improves therefore VEC’s overall financial picture by reducing initial investment cost (with lower FCDD) and financial performance criteria. It should be investigated from a “project-stand-alone” and then “institutional point-of-view” what happens if (i) the equity portion is increased and treated as a subsidy (as is the case), or (ii) the equity portion is kept and/or increased and treated as equity that needs to generate a certain percentage in ROE.

340. Expressways are critical infrastructure to economic development as a basis for investment from both state and private sources. Investment in expressways themselves, nonetheless, is substantially high. The costs to construct all projects assigned to VEC (see Table 6.3) are about US dollar 6 billion44. Carrying investment in all these expressways by a high portion of borrowings creates a burden of interest and principal payment liability to VEC and reduces projects’ financial feasibility and sustainability. High debt ratio also worries donors who provides not only concessional loans but also requires commercial terms in some loans. Although all loans are backed by the Government, VEC financial sustainability and ability-to-pay are important criteria for project selection by lenders.

43 Revenues from other infrastructure facilities, such as for example gasoline stations and rest areas, are typically a very small

fraction of the toll revenues only. They are therefore not considered here. 44 Investment costs of the Hanoi – Langson and Halong Mongcai expressways shown in Table 6.3 are roughly estimated without

FCDD. If FS for these projects are developed with more precise data and methodology, investment cost of each project may exceed US dollar 1 billion.



341. Given the advantages of Government subsidy and the importance of investment in expressways, it is essential for governmental financial and state management agencies (MOF and MOT) to consider contributing higher government share in expressways investments as well as to increase VEC’s equity, as expressway management companies in some countries45. This will help to improve project financial viability, VEC profitability and financial sustainability as well as lenders’ confidence in the Government’s commitment as regards expressway development support.

342. Institutional privilege requirements. Some preferential policies has been issued to support VEC’s operation such as corporate income tax exemption and reduction, right to decide toll rate in expressways under their management, on-lending borrowing through MOF from international donors, etc (see Decision 1202/QD-TTg dated September 2007). However, further review of these privileges needs to be made to evaluate their sufficiency. The model applied in VEC currently is unique and newly introduced in Vietnam without prior domestic experience.

343. Financial management system. The current FM system in VEC is doing well in accounting daily transactions and developing annual plan, but lack expertise in long-term budgeting and risk management. In order to fully develop the system in financial management, there should be an manager (e.g. deputy general director) holding the responsibility of a Chief Financial Manager (CFO) as well as a strengthened financial department with more staff engaging in budgeting and risk management.

344. Loan considerations. Under the given terms & conditions the OCR loan is relatively “cheap money” when compared with market rates. The annual borrowing rate is also diminished from 5.63% (without on-lending fee charged by MOF) in 2007 when loan agreement for the Noi bai – Lao cai project was signed to 2.92%% (without on-lending charge) currently required by ADB due to the global economic crisis. However, as the investigation shows, the amount borrowed should be “minimized”, in order to minimize the considerable debt service burden that occurs when toll revenue generating capacity is still at lower levels, due to low traffic demand.

345. Other financing tools. It should be investigated whether the issuing of bonds could considerably increase project and/or institutional financial performance. As other participants in the bond market, VEC has to pay market rate as to be successful in mobilizing money by bonds, which trends to increase above the assumed 11% in this analysis. However, VEC’s offered rate should be lower than a cap regulated by MOF. As such, bond is considered as the most expensive funding source. This source is also unreliable due to lack of commitment to lend since the starting point of project’s construction as other borrowings from institutional donors like ADB or JBIC. This unreliability may delay project progress or force VEC to either issue more expensive bonds or temporally borrow with high interest rate from commercial banks to redeem their financial obligation to contractors.

346. Also, investment cost contains a sizeable share in taxes (about 10% for VAT) and in land acquisition/compensation that is not returned by depreciation. MOF together with VEC should investigate the financial performance benefits that can be obtained by granting, for example, VAT waivers or government subsidy to be spent on land acquisition/compensation as the hypothesis given in the Ben luc – Long thanh project. The tradeoff between equity contributions and tax waivers may result in better project and/or institutional financial performance.

347. Beside asking for lending from financial institutions or using state budget to finance road construction, the Government and VEC can think of other financing options such as build-operate-transfer (BOT), build-transfer (BT), build-operate-own (BOO) and public-private partnership (PPP). These investment tools has been applied in road development in many countries including Vietnam’s neighbors as China, Singapore, Indonesia, South Korea, etc. Funds mobilized from non-state sources will help to reduce the government’s and VEC’s financial burden in financing expressway projects.

348. Presently, the Binhminh Import Export Production and Trading Company (Bitexco) was approved by the Government to develop the Dau giay- Phan thiet road (128km) under the BOT form. BEDC (BIDV Expressway Development Company), a consortium established by large corporations and economic groups, including Vinashin, PetroVietnam, Bitexco, VNPT, and Song Da Corporation, was allowed by the 45 The Korean Expressway Company (KEC), established in 1969 and owed by the Korean Government, plays the role as investment

owner and manager of the whole expressway network in Korea (3,113 km in operation). The current register capital of KEC is valued at US dollar 25 billion in addition to US dollar 20 billion accumulated surplus. KEC’s main shareholder is the Koran Government (holding 86.95% of capital together with other three Korean banks.



Government to construct the Trung luong – My thuan – Can tho expressways (82km). The BEDC also waiting for the Government to approve their proposal to acquire the right of toll collection on the near-completion HCMC-Trung Luong Expressway (62 km) over 40 years. In return, the consortium will refund the investment (US dollar 581 million) to the Government in four years after the handover of the commercial right over the expressway linking HCMC with Mekong Delta’ Tien Giang Province.

349. Given these examples, the financial contribution of private investment in expressways is insubstantial with several pilot forms. The role of private participation in expressway development in Vietnam has not been emphasized. Some main causes are raised to explain the situation, which are the unattractiveness of transportation projects, large capital requirement, long payback period and high risk involved.

350. In order to promote further this model, a more detail study is needed, which is beyond the scope of this report. In general, because of the challenges faced by private investors, the Government should introduce preferable incentives such as high state capital share (that may probably decrease over time with more confidence built from private parties), tax waivers/reduction, more transparent legal framework, etc.

351. VEC investment and business plan. VEC needs to prepare a business plan that is based on realistic appraisals of traffic demand and the economic and financial viability of the individual expressway projects. Based on such a plan, a phasing of expressway implementation could be undertaken from the view-point of financial viability and sustainability of VEC.



APPENDIX 1 TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS 1. Expressway. Expressways in terms of physical characteristics are defined in article 3(10) of the “Law

on Land Road Traffic” as “roads reserved only for high-speed vehicles, with median strips dividing carriageways for vehicles to run in opposite directions and without crossing other roads on the same level”. (See also design standards TCVN 5729-1997) An additional requirement has to be added from Decree No. 186/2004/ND-CP that stipulates that expressways have to be bordered by a twenty (20) meters safety corridor. Hence, not all national highways are expressways, nor are expressways a sub-class of national highways (example: provincial roads could also be expressways).

2. National Expressways. This expression combines two elements: (1) administrative jurisdiction and (2)

physical characteristics (see item 1. above). 3. VEC Provisional Charter. The VEC Charter was promulgated by MOT Decision No. 3446/QD-BGTVT

of 12 November 2004 and the “Law on State enterprises” (Law No. 14/2003/QH11 of 26 November 2003). State enterprises can be organized in form of a State company (= the state holds the entire charter capital or a dominant share), a joint stock company or a limited liability company. VEC is organized in form of an independent State Company. An independent State company is defined in article 3(9) of the “Law on State Enterprises” as “a company which does not belong to the organizational structure of State corporations”.

4. Business Objectives of VEC. They are defined in article 3 of the VEC Provisional Charter. They are

defined as: “The Corporation’s business objectives are to develop production, to improve investment effect and management quality, to make joint operation, joint venture, to enhance prestige and competitive capacity in domestic and international market, to promoting capital accumulating and concentrating process, to gradually develop for enhancing a key role in national expressways’ investment, construction, operation management.”

5. Business Scope of VEC. The business scope is defined in article 4 of the VEC Provisional Charter as:

- Investing in construction, management, maintenance and toll collection on the national expressways

- Investing in construction of other traffic infrastructure in all forms - Developing, doing business in services along the expressways such as: guesthouse, restaurant,

petrol station, advertising board, construction material - Transport technical consultancy: studies how to develop national expressway network; make

pre-feasibility study; feasibility study; design; supervising traffic infrastructure works - Carry out the study to develop new kind of services along the expressways.

6. Conversion of VEC. The present form of VEC-type State company will cease to exist as such no later

than 1 July 2010. This is explicitly provided for in article 166 of the “Law on Enterprises. Article 166 (1) provides two choices for VEC conversion: (a) into a limited liability company or (b) into a shareholding company (for this option a minimum of three (3) shareholders are required).

7. VEC forms of capital mobilization. Article 10(a) of the VEC Provisional Charter allows VEC to:

“…mobilize capital for business in forms of issuing bonds, credit bills, promissory notes; borrowing capital of banks, credit institutions and other financial organizations, of individuals and organizations outside the Corporation; borrowing capital of laborers, and other forms of capital mobilization under the provision of law.”

8. “Basic” Enterprise Bonds. Are governed by Decree No. 52/2006/ND-CP of 19 May 2006. Among other

prerequisites, issuing entity must have generated profits in the year proceeding the year of issuance. 9. “Government-Guaranteed Enterprise Bonds. Are governed by chapter III of Decree No.

141/2003/ND-CP dated 20 November 2003. 10. Enterprise Bonds issued to the general public. Are governed by Decree No. 144/2003/ND-CP dated

28 November 2003 on securities and security markets. In addition, the provisions of MOF Circular 75/2004/TT-BTC dated 23 July 2004 apply. Registration with the State Securities Commission for registration certification is obligatory.



11. Tolling Perspective. The tolling perspective for national expressways is subject to two different

regimes. (A) Expressways invested with State budget capital are subject to the provisions of point 2 of Section 1 of Part II of MOF Circular 90/2004/TT-BTC. It states that; “the toll rates for roads invested with State budget capital shall uniformly apply to all booths according to the toll rate table promulgated together with this Circular.” (B) Expressways built by private investors are subject to point 1 of Section IV of Part II of Circular No. 90/2004/TT-BTC. It permits road-using charges to be twice the level of those collected on expressways invested with State budget capital.

12. National Expressway Master Plan. Means the expressway master plan proposed by FINNROAD in

Volume 3 of their final report, in particular Chapter 3.11. 13. Investment Plan. Means the tentative investment outlay undertaken by the consultant based on

Chapter 3.11 of the FINNROAD study. 14. Financing Structure. Financing structure and/or financing mechanism means the different weight of

financing instruments in the financing plan. 15. Revenue instruments. Refers to all revenue generating instruments currently and in future at the

disposal of VEC. 16. Debt-Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR). Is defined as “net operating income/total debt service. 17. O&M. Means all operation & maintenance cost of VEC pertaining to its on-going business operations.



APPENDIX 2 FINANCIAL REGULATIONS OF VIETNAM EXPRESSWAY CORPORATION (Attached to the Decision 2547/QD-BGTVT dated November 22, 2006)

CHAPTER I

GENERAL PROVISIONS Article 1. Scope of regulation This regulation states guidelines for the financial management of the Vietnam Expressway Corporation (VEC). Article 2. Accounting and Financial principles, regulations to be applied VEC is a state-owned company, financially independent, subject to effectiveness principle in business, and responsible for maintaining, developing state capital delivered to the company. VEC is allowed to open bank accounts in the State Treasury, domestic and foreign banks according to legislative provisions. The company is subject to tax obligations and benefits as regulated by laws. VEC should comply with the current accounting ad statistical regulations. Article 3. The company’s subsidiaries VEC has some subsidiaries financially independent and some others dependent. The company invests capital transferred from the State to its subsidiaries consistent with each subsidiary’s business activities and capital-using plan approved by the Management Board. The subsidiaries bear responsibilities before the State and the company for the effectiveness of transferred capital. Article 4. Supervision The company is supervised by the MOT who acts as the ownership representative and financially monitored by MOF; subsidiaries are supervised by the company in accordance with the company’s charter and state financial agencies regarding the financial management of the state’s capital and assets. Article 5. Responsibilities of the Management Board and General Director The Management Board and General Director are responsible for the effectiveness of the state’s capital and assets assigned to the company; and for the compliance of financial management regulations stipulated in the Decision and other current relevant financial regulations of the State. The power, obligations and responsibilities of the Management Board and General Director in the company’s financial management are subject to Item 6 of the Financial Regulations accompanying the Decree 199/2004/ND-CP dated December 03, 2004 of the Government and the company’s charter.

CHAPTER II THE MANAGEMENT AND UTILIZATION OF (LIABILITIES + EQUITY) AND ASSETS

Article 6. The company’s liabilities and capital 1. Charter capital

a) The initial charter capital of the company is VND1,000bil granted by the state. b) Any increase/decrease of the company’s charter capital should be approved by MOT after

receiving writing suggestion from MOF. c) The company should disclose any change in its charter capital.

2. Liabilities: The company is allowed to mobilize other sources of fund subject to the Corporate Law,

including: a) Borrowing from banks, domestic and foreign credit institutions



b) Borrowing from local and international individuals/organizations (direct lending or bond issuance,….)

c) Assistance from local and international individuals/organizations d) Others

3. The State contribution to expressway construction The State contribution is clarified specifically in every expressway project.

Article 7. State capital transfer to the company 1. The State transfers its capital to the Management Board. The transfer should be subject to Article 7

Decree 199/2004/ND-CP. 2. The General Director transfer capital to subsidiaries in accordance with projects approved by the

Management Board. Article 8. The company’s rights and responsibilities in the utilization of its capital and funds 1. The company has discretion regarding the utilization of state capital and other funds under its

management for project investment and business activities. The company takes responsibilities for the preservation, development and effectiveness of the capital before the MOT, and ensures benefits of relevant bodies such as lenders, customers, employees subject to contracts.

2. In case that the company uses its funds for purposes that are different from regulations, it should ensure sufficient fund if needed. The utilization of investment fund is to follow legislative provisions in investment and construction.

3. In case that the company is assigned by the State with a special mission, its capital and other funds should be gathered to fulfill the mission.

Article 9. Capital and fund utilization forms of in the company’s operation 1. The capital is invested in the construction of national expressways and other transportation

infrastructure facilities: the company is allowed to invest its funding sources in the construction of national expressways and other transportation infrastructure facilities according to projects approved by competent authorities.

2. The capital is invested in the procurement and improvement of fixed assets serving the company’s operation and subject to the following principles: a) appropriate to the company’s operating demand b) compliant with current legal framework in infrastructure construction investment and fixed assets

procurement in state-owned companies. 3. Capital investment in other business activities: the company is allowed to invest in registered activities

subject to capital preservation and development principles. 4. Out-going investment

The company is permitted to invest its capital/assets under its management in outside activities. Out-going investments relating to land use should be subject to legal provisions in land use. Out-going investments should comply with legal regulations and principles of capital preservation, development and effectiveness, create higher income and do not negatively affects the company’ operating targets. Forms of out-going investment vary depending on actual context and may take the following: a) An establishment of a new one-member limited liability state-owned company b) A set up of a new domestic joint stock company, limited liability company, partnership company,

joint venture company; or a BCC without a foundation of a new legal entity. c) Buying shares or contributing to joint stock companies, limited liability companies, partnership

companies and joint venture companies. d) Acquisition of another company e) Bond purchase, f) Others as regulated by the laws.

Article 10. Authorities in capital mobilization and investment 1. Authorities in capital mobilization

a) The Management Board shall approve projects or borrowing contract which have value exceeding the company’s charter.



b) The General Director approve projects or borrowing contract which have value equal or less than the company’s charter

2. Authorities in capital investment a) Investment in newly established one-member limited liability state-owned companies,

multi-member limited liability state-owned companies or State joint stock companies: - If the project works in sectors or locations where new state-owned firms are permitted, the

authorities in capital investment are delegated as below: + The Management Board shall approve projects which have value accounting for

30%-50% of assets reported in financial reports of the latest quarter. The General Director approves projects which have value accounting for less than 30% of assets reported in financial reports of the latest quarter.

+ The MOT shall approve projects which have value exceeding 50% of assets reported in financial reports of the latest quarter.

- If the project works in sectors or locations where new state-owned firms are not permitted, the MOT shall approve the fund contribution plan of the newly established company.

b) The fund contribution to establish foreign-invested joint venture companies in Viet Nam, abroad-located firms or to undertake buyout in companies working in another sector shall be approved by MOT.

c) Other fund contribution plans: - The general Director shall approve projects which have value accounting for less than 30% of

assets reported in financial reports of the latest quarter (except for investments relating to the Board’s approval).

- The Management Board shall approve projects which have value accounting for 30%-50% of assets reported in financial reports of the latest quarter

- The MOT shall approve projects which have value exceeding 50% of assets reported in financial reports of the latest quarter

3. The company is not permitted to invest in or contribute to other firms that are mainly owned or managed by wife, husband, mother, father, children, blood brother, blood sister of members of the Management Board, the Supervision Board, Board of Directors and Chief Accountant of the company.

Article 11. The preservation of state capital in the company The company is in charge of preserving state capital by applying the following measures: 1. complying with state regulations regarding capital and assets management, profit distribution and other

financial and accounting requirements. 2. Buying asset insurance as required by the laws. 3. establishing provisions for

a) inventory devaluation b) uncollectible receivables c) long-term investment devaluation d) job loss allowance

4. Liquidating non-performing loans and lost assets in accordance with current legislative provisions; accounting uncollectible receivables and lost assets in pursuant to Item 5, Section A, Chapter II of Circular 33/2005/TT-BTC dated April 29, 2005 issued by MOF (guidelines for the Financial Regulations of SOEs and state capital in companies).

5. Other measures complying with regulations. Article 12. Payables management For payables, the company should: 1. Fully record payables including interest 2. make payment at maturity as committed. Regularly review and analyze the company’s liquidity

capability aiming at proposing suitable solutions for debt payment at maturity to avoid overdue debts. 3. The amount incurred due to the foreign exchange changes in the financial period and the amount of

payables in foreign currencies at the end of the financial year should be treated according to Item 4.2, Section A, Chapter II of Circular 33/2005/TT-BTC.

4. Prior to closing accounting ledgers for financial statement formulation, the company is to value and double check its obligations with lenders, account the amount of foreign currency payable change incurred due to the foreign exchange changes into to operating costs as regulated by legislative



provisions. Simultaneously, it should evaluate and classify debts in accordance with regulation so as to timely detect overdue debts, analysis causes and propose appropriate remedial measures.

Section 2

THE MANAGEMENT AND USE OF THE COMPANY’S ASSETS Article 13. Assets of the company 1. Assets of the company include current and fixed assets as regulated in the Decree 1999/2004/ND-CP

funded by charter capital, borrowings and other sources. Total asset value is calculated from the Balance Sheet of the latest quarter.

2. The company has discretion in selecting projects investing in the construction, procurement, improvement or structural change of fixed assets to be consistent with business targets so as to enhance capital effectiveness.

3. Decision-making authorities regarding projects are stipulated in Item 2, Article 10 of this Decision. Projects under the Management Board’s authority should not exceed the maximum limit in Group B stated in the Regulation of the management of investment and construction projects. Implementation procedures should follow regulations of the management in investment and construction projects.

Article 14. The management and use of the company’s assets 1. Fixed assets depreciation

a) Every fixed asset in the company (including those awaiting to use, not in need to use or in liquidation process) is to be depreciated in accordance with current regulations. The depreciation of assets working on operating business is accounted to operating costs, while that of the others (waiting to use, not in need to use or in liquidation process) is accounted to costs of other activities.

b) For assets which are not fully depreciated but lost or damaged, causes should be identified to look for compensation from the responsible individual/organization, which shall be decided by the Management Board. The difference between the residual and compensation is accounted to costs of other activities.

c) The minimum depreciation is calculated based on the maximum utilization period regulated by the MOF. There is no maximum limit on depreciation. The General Director shall make decision on depreciation amount which should not be below the minimum limit as regulated by MOF.

Specially, for assets and mortgages as expressways and other transportation infrastructure facilities invested by the company in pursuant to competent authorities’ decisions, the minimum depreciation duration is calculated subject to the payback period of the approved project and current regulations in depreciation.

d) For infrastructure works that are completed and put into operation, but their value has not been finalized by the competent authorities, the temporary value computerized from accounting data should be used for depreciation purpose. Their base value will be adjusted following the approval of final value.

e) Assets which are leased or pledged, the depreciation should be subject to regulations as well as recorded and recovered.

2. Inventory management The management of inventory should be compliant with Article 17 of Decree 199/2004/ND-CP, Accounting standard #2 “Inventory” in the Decision 149/2001/QD-BTC dated December 31, 2001 of the MOF. At the end of the accounting period, provisions for inventory devaluation shall be made as regulated in Item 5.2, Section A Chapter II of Circular 33/2005/TT-BTC given that their base value is higher than the expected recovery. - base value includes costs incurred from the purchase, process and other direct costs. - Expected value is the (expected) selling price (excluding costs incurring to complete the product

and sale costs). 3. Asset counting and re-evaluation

a) The company is to count aiming at identifying asset quantity, double check at accounting books before closing the books and developing yearly financial reports. Causes for excessive or lost assets are to be identified to look for compensation from the responsible individual/organization which shall be decided by the Management Board.

b) The company will re-evaluate their assets in the following cases:



a. Assets are to be re-counted and re-evaluated in pursuant to the state competent agency’s decision.

b. Ownership of the company is changed by equitization or ownership diversification. c. The company’s assets are used for out-going investments The asset re-evaluation is done while the company’s ownership is changed or those assets are contributed in joint venture or business corporation projects as regulated by laws. The increase-decrease value of re-evaluated assets is accounted in compliance with state regulations in specific cases.

4. Handling for asset loss a) For lost assets, the company should clearly identify causes and propose remedial measures:

- If the asset is lost due to individuals or collectives’ fault, these individuals/organizations are to be in charge of compensation which shall be decided by the Management Board in pursuant to legislative provisions.

- The insured assets, if being lost, shall be handled according to insurance contracts. - The difference between the lost and compensation value will be made up by the financial

provision fund (established from after tax profit). The remaining is accounted to operating costs of the period.

- For serious lost caused by natural disasters or objective reasons that the company is unable to recover themselves, a plan shall be developed by the Management Board to be submitted to MOT and MOF. Given the MOF’s comments, MOT will work out solutions for the lost within their authorities.

b) The company takes responsibility in the recovery of lost assets, otherwise the Management Board and the General Director shall be in charge of losses to the ownership representative as in the case of unfaithful financial report.

Article 15. The management of receivables 1. The company is to develop and issue regulations for receivable management, clearly delegate

responsibility to individuals or teams in the recording and collection of receivables; open accounting books for receivables by subject, periodically categorize these items (revolving, non-performing and uncollectible) and keep track of collection.

2. The company is permitted to sell their receivables as regulated by laws including unexpired, non-performing and uncollectible loans to recover the investment with negotiable price.

3. The company is to evaluate their receivables, double check at borrowers, categorize and identify non-performing loans before closing the books and developing yearly financial reports. Provisions are made for non-performing receivables.

Uncollectible receivables are solved following regulations. The difference between overdue loans and compensation coming from relevant compensators will be made by provisions for bad receivables and provisions for financial loss. The remaining is accounted to operating costs of the period. The uncollectible receivables that are solved need to be recorded in off-balance sheet reports and collected. The recovered amount afterwards will be accounted to income before tax. Article 16. Assets leasing, pledging, liquidating and selling 1. The company is allowed to lease, pledge, liquidate and sell assets owned by them subject to principles

of capital effectiveness, preservation and development. a) The Management Board makes decision on leasing and pledging contracts and other economic

contracts with value exceeding the charter capital. Contracts with value equal to or less than the charter capital are decided by the General Director.

b) The liquidation of assets with residual value less than 30% of total value in financial reports of the latest quarter; from 30% to 50%, the General Director; above 50%, the MOF, based on the Management Board’s suggestion.

2. The leasing and pledging of assets should comply with the Civil Code and other regulations. 3. The liquidation of assets attached to land is to be compliant with land regulations. If assets are

liquidated by destruction, a Liquidation Committee should be activated by the General Director. 4. The assets liquidation is to be taken through auction or by the company themselves publicly and

subject to legal provisions in assets auction. In case that the asset value is relatively small, the General



Director will decide either auction or negotiation given that the price is higher its market value. Income from asset liquidation is managed, used and accounted in compliance with regulations.

CHAPTER III

OPERATING REVENUE, COST, PROJECT MANAGEMENT COST AND PROFIT DISTRIBUTION Article 17. Revenue The company’s revenue comes from operating revenue and other income incurred at the head office, subsidiaries and at firms fully invested by the company: 1. Revenue from investment and management of expressways and transportation infrastructure facilities:

a) Revenue from toll collection in expressways and transportation infrastructure facilities invested by the company: - is the actual yearly collection if it is done by the company - is the fraction between the total amounts received from transferee and the year number of the

transfer, if the company transfers toll collection right to other individuals/organizations. b) Revenue from toll amount that is retained by the company to spend on toll collection. The

percentage of retaining amount is subject to agreement between MOT and MOF. c) Other revenue from investment and business activities.

2. Revenue from services: is the amount coming from sale of goods and services incurred in the period

accepted by customers after subtracting commercial discount and return, including a) Revenue from providing services for expressways users as motels, restaurants, petrol stations,

advertisements, construction materials, etc. b) Revenue from technical transportation consulting services as national expressway network

development research; feasibility study formulation, design, supervision, testing, quality accreditation of transportation infrastructure.

c) Revenue from services in neighboring areas of expressways d) Additional fees to sale price as subsidy, additional charge, etc. that are credited to the company e) Revenue from gifts, goods exchanged or self-consumed by the company

3. Revenue from financial activities: a) Revenue from sale of propriety rights, leasing; permitting other parties to use the companies'

assets, from loan interests, deposit interests, interests on deferred payment or installment payment on goods sale, the financial leasing interests.

b) Difference from foreign currency sale, exchange rate difference; difference profits from transfer of capital and divided profits from investment outside the companies (including after-tax profits after making deductions for various funds of the State-run one-member limited liability companies); the after-tax profits payout from subsidiaries resulting from the contribution of State capital; the after-tax profits contributed from subsidiaries to the development investment funds; income from security trading (shares, bonds) and collection from subsidiaries for management expenditures.

4. Other revenues include proceeds from liquidation and sale of fixed assets, collected insurance indemnities, debts with unidentified creditors and being inscribed as revenue increases, fines collected from customers for contractual breaches, and other collections.

5. Methodology to identify several items of revenue as well as conditions and timing for revenue calculation is regulated in Item 1, Section 1, Part C of the Circular 33/2005/TT-BTC.

Article 18. Expenses 1. Expenses for business activities of companies of the company include:

Expense for raw materials, materials, fuels, power (calculated according to the actual consumption levels and the actual cost prices), a) consumption level: The General Director should construct material consumption norms for each

product to be submitted to the Management Board for approval and bear responsibility for the preciseness of these norms. If actual consumption in production exceeds respective norm, causes and responsibilities are clarified for compensation, which shall be accounted to other revenues. On contrary, employees are rewarded if actual consumption falls below norm with bonus value less than material savings of the year. Rewards are accounted to operating expenses. The General Director determines the compensation or bonus. The company should regularly review norms to be consistent with reality.



b) Actual cost price: - Price of in-coming materials includes:

o The price stated in receipts issued by suppliers. In case of imported materials, the price equals to buying price (in foreign currency) times foreign exchange rates quoted by the bank where the company’s demand account is opened, plus import tax and other charges (if any), minus discounts.

o Freight, loading, keeping, loss insurance cost, warehouse rent, processing costs incurred prior to arrival, etc.

- Price of self-produced materials o Actual material cost price o Processing costs of the company o Price of materials processed by other companies o Actual material cost price o Processing cost charged by the other companies

Materials taken in or out of the company’s warehouse, processing costs, freight costs, etc. should be enclosed with receipts as required by regulations. Costs of tools are allocated to expenses based on their utilization duration with the maximum of 2 years. Expense for fixed asset amortization calculated according to Item 1, Article 14 of this Regulation Expense for salary, wage, salary-like allowance and mid-shift meal expense. The mid-shift meal expense is decided by Management Boards depending on business effectiveness, but monthly expenses should not in excess of minimum wage. Social insurance funding, trade union funding, medical insurance premiums, which must be paid for laborers by the companies according to regulations Expenses for outside services are expenditures for business operations of the company, including: a) major repair expenditure of fixed assets is accounted to operating costs of the year (or allocated

partially to the next year in case of negative profit). Periodical major repair expenditure of some specific fixed assets is allocated in advance to costs based on projected expenses by the end of the financial year. When the repair takes place, the difference between projected and actual, either positive or negative, is accounted to expenses.

b) Expenses for transactions, brokerage, meetings, promotion, advertisement, etc. are recorded by actual amount. A regulation on the management of these items is to be developed and disseminated to all employees of the company for implementation and supervision. The General Director is in charge of actual expenses.

The company is not allowed to pay commission to sale agents, targeted customers, management positions and the sale staff who directly involve in product sale. c) Lease payment of fixed assets in lease contract. If single payment is made, the amount will be

allocated to operating costs according to leasing duration. d) Per diem is paid in accordance with the Management Board’s approved norms which are

publicized to employees for supervision. e) Expenses on transportation, electricity, water, paper, office facilities, fire protection, auditing,

consulting, insurance, commission and others Provisions for inventory devaluation, long-term investment loss, uncollectible receivables and job loss allowance is regulated in Item 5.2, 5.3, 5.4 Article 5, Section A, Chapter II of the Circular 33/2005/TT-BTC.

f) Other pecuniary expenses include: + Natural resource tax, land tax, license tax; + Land rent; + Severance or job-loss allowances to laborers; + Training to raise managerial capabilities, professional skills of laborers; + Expense for healthcare work; expense for scientific research, technological renewal research; + Innovation rewards, increased labor productivity rewards, supplies and expense saving

rewards. The reward levels shall be decided by general directors, directors of companies, based on the efficiency brought about by the above things but must not be higher than the expense savings brought about by such things within one year;

+ Expense for female laborers; + Expense for environmental protection; + Expense for mid-shift meals for laborers;



+ Expenses for activities of the Party and mass organizations in the companies (expenses outside the funding of the Party and mass organizations to be spent from the prescribed sources);

+ Other pecuniary expenses; 2. Financial activity expenses, including expenses related to investment outside the companies, payable

interests on mobilized capital, exchange rate difference upon payment, payment discount expense, asset-leasing expense, long-term investment devaluation provisions

3. Other expenses, including: a) Expense for fixed asset sale, liquidation, including the remaining values of fixed assets upon their

liquidation, sale; b) Expense for recovery of debts already deleted from the accounting books; c) Expense for fine collection; d) Payment of fines for contractual breaches; e) Contribution to profession associations participated by the company f) Other expenses

4. The following amounts shall not be accounted to expenses: a) Losses that are compensated by the Government, insurers or other compensators. b) Fines for law violations in administration, environment, overdue loan payment (subject to

subjective causes), financial regulations. c) Expense for procurement, construction, improvement of fixed assets (other than expressways and

transportation infrastructure in approved projects) that are invested by state fund for infrastructure construction;

d) Expenses for repair and maintenance of welfare facilities as houses, guest houses for employees and expenditures for other welfare facilities;

c) Contributions to local and social organizations; d) Other expenses funded by other sources.

Article 19. Expense management

Companies must strictly manage all expenses in order to reduce expenditures and production costs with a view to increasing profits by the following managerial measures: 1. Elaborating, promulgating, and organizing the implementation of technical-economic norms such as

material consumption, labor consumption and other expenditures based on which the company’s expenses are managed. Those norms are approved by the Management Board Chairman. The norms must be disseminated to implementers, publicized to laborers in the companies for application, inspection and supervision.

2. Periodically organizing the analysis of production expenditures, costs of the companies with a view to detecting shortcomings and weaknesses in management and factors that increase expenditures, costs so as to work out remedial solutions in time

3. In case of failure to achieve the norms, thus raising the costs, the causes thereof and the responsibilities therefore must be clearly analyzed for handling according to law provisions. If it is due to subjective causes, compensation must be made based on the Management Board’s decision complying with legislative provisions.

Article 20. Profits and profit distribution

1. Profits earned in the year by a company mean the total of profits earned from business activities and

profits earned from other activities. - The difference between the goods sale and service provision turnover and the total cost of

consumed products and goods or service expenses in the period; - The difference between the turnover from financial activities and the expense for financial

activities arising in the period. - The difference between the turnover from other activities and the expense for other activities

arising in the period 2. The companies' earned profits, after being subtracted for offsetting the previous year's losses

according to the provisions of the Enterprise Income Tax Law and paying the enterprise income tax, shall be distributed as follows: a) Paying dividend to fund contributors according to contracts (if any),



b) Paying the remaining of fines due to regulation violations in taxation, transportation, accounting, economic contracts, overdue loan payment after subtracting compensations from offenders (if any); paying expenditures actually made but accounted to taxable costs

c) Offsetting losses of the previous years, which are no longer valid for deduction from pre-tax profits; d) Deducting 10% for the financial provision fund; when the fund's credit balance is equal to 25% of

the charter capital, no more deduction is required; e) The amount left after the deductions prescribed at Points a, b, c and d of this Item are made shall

be distributed according to the ratio between the State capital at the company and the capital mobilized by the companies themselves in the year on annual average.

The capital mobilized by the companies themselves means the money amounts mobilized by the companies through issuance of bonds, notes, loans from organizations and/or individuals within and without the country on the basis that the companies take self-responsibility for repayment of both principals and interests to lenders as committed, except for loans guaranteed by the Government, the Finance Ministry and loans provided with concessional interest rate.

3. The profits divided according to the State investment capital shall be used for reinvestment in supplementing the State capital at the company. In cases where it is not necessary to supplement the State capital at the company, the MOT shall decide to transfer them to the concentrated funds for investment in other companies.

4. Profit payout to self-mobilized capital shall be distributed as follows: a) Contributing at least 30% for the development investment fund of the companies; b) Contributing 5% at most for setting up reward funds for the company management team. The

annual deduction level shall not exceed VND 500 million (for companies with Management Boards), provided that the ratio of pre-tax earned profits to the State capital at the company must be equal to or larger than the planned profit ratio;

c) The remaining profits shall be distributed into the reward and welfare funds of the company. The level of contribution for each fund shall be decided by the Management Boards after consulting with the companies' trade unions. In two years following the profit-making year, if the value of the two reward and welfare funds is less than 02-actual-month wage payment, the company may reduce contribution to the development investment fund to raise the two fund balance up to 02-actual-month wage payment. The maximum reduction is equal to the whole contribution to the development investment fund of the year.

The actual payout rate to the development investment fund and the management team reward fund is decided by MOT subject to the Management Board’s suggestion.

Article 21. Purposes of funds

a) The financial provision shall be used to make up for the remaining property loss or damage after being compensated by individual/organizational offenders, insurers or the company’s security devaluation provisions, investment provisions; compensate for the company's losses as decided by the Management Boards or MOT.

b) The development investment fund shall be used to supplement the companies' charter capital. c) The reward fund shall be used:

- To make year-end or periodical rewards. The actual rewards are decided by the General Director following the Union Chairman’s suggestion which is made on the basis of labor productivity and achievement of each employee in the company;

- To make irregular rewards to individuals, teams in the company resulting from their profitable innovations. The actual rewards are decided by the General Director;

- To reward individuals and units outside the company for their great contribution to the company. The actual rewards are decided by the General Director.

d) The welfare fund shall be used: - For investment in construction or repair of public-utility works of the companies; For partial

contribution in the construction of welfare facilities of the sector or with other units under contracts

- For expenditures on public activities of employees in the companies in sport, culture, sigh-seeing;

- For contribution to social welfare fund - For regular or unexpected supports to employees in difficulty. - For other welfare activities. The use of welfare funds shall be decided by the Management Board after consulting with the trade union.



e) The reward funds for the management team shall be used to reward the Management Board and the Board of Directors. The rewards shall be decided by MOT based on the company’s effectiveness and the Management Board’s recommendation.

f) The use of the above-mentioned funds must be publicized according to regulations on financial publicity, regulations on grassroots democracy and the State's regulations. The companies can make spending from the reward, welfare, company management and administration board-rewarding funds only after fully repaying due debts and fulfilling other property obligations.

CHAPTER IV

THE FINANCIAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE COMPANY AND FINANCIALLY DEPENDENT SUBSIDIARIES AND INDEPENDENT MEMBER COMPANIES

Article 22. The relationship with financially dependent subsidiaries The company’s financially dependent subsidiaries do not have their own capital and assets. Their capital and assets belong to the company. The company may delegate them to perform several activities in accounting and financial management. The delegation is stated in their regulations in organization, business management and the company’s specific provisions. Accounting entries of financially dependent subsidiaries are taken centrally at the company and their business performance is shown in the company’s financial reports. Article 23. The relationship with joint stock companies and limited liability companies with two or more members where the company contribute the majority of capital, and with one-member limited liability state companies and joint venture companies 1. In companies having charter capital partially invested by the company, the company shall manage this

share subject to legislative provisions, charter of the company and of the destination company. As the owner of the share in other companies, the company executes the rights and responsibilities of a shareholder in joint stock companies or of a member in limited liability firms. The economic relationship in buying, selling, leasing, lending between the company and fund-receiving entity should be pursuant to contract and payment should be made as of other economic entities.

2. Depending on its contribution, the company may delegate a representative to manage or keep track of the capital invested in the others. The decision is made by the Management Board Chairman according to the General Director’s suggestion. Rights, obligations, responsibilities and requirements of the representative are stipulated in Article 46, 47 and 48 of Decree 199/2004/ND-CP.

3. The company is not allowed to directly withdraw the fund invested in other independent members in any form such as cash/assets transfer without payment except for transferring the share to other investors. The authorities to withdraw investment from other companies are regulated in Item 2, Article 9 of the Decision.

4. The reinvestment of profits payout so as to raise the company’s investment amount in other firms is subject to the Management Board Chairman’s decision and the firms’ charter.

5. The relationship with one-member limited liability state companies and joint venture companies is stipulated in Article 24, and 26 of Decree 153/2004/ND-CP.

CHAPTER V FINANCIAL PLANS, ACCOUNTING STATISTICAL AND AUDITING REGIMES

Article 24.- Financial plans 1. The planed profit ratio of the company is decided by MOT. 2. The General Director shall develop medium and long-term financial plans compatible with the

company’s business plan to be submitted to the Management Board 3. The Management Board shall decide on the company’s financial plan which are reported to MOT and

used as bases for supervising and evaluating the business management and administration of the Management Board and the General Director. The format and sending time of financial plan to MOT are subject to requirements applied to state-owned companies.



Article 25. Accounting, statistics , reporting and disclosure in finance 1. Accounting and statistics: subject to current regulations applying to corporations 2. Financial plan: The company is to formulate and send financial statements quarterly and annually

subject to requirements applied to state-owned companies The company’s final statements are to be approved by the Management Board following the verification of the Supervision Board. The Management Board takes responsibilities for the preciseness and truthfulness of these reports. The company’s final statements are to be audited pursuant to legal provisions. 3. Financial disclosure: The company is to disclose its financial status as required by laws. The disclosure

of annual financial performance is guided by MOF and the company is responsible for the disclosed information.

4. Financial year: starting from January 01 to December 31 Article 26. Supervision and auditing 1. The company is to comply with financial auditing and an internal auditing subject to MOT’s regulations.

- The company’s Supervision Board is in charge of monitoring business outcomes reflected in accounting books and financial statements. The Supervision Board shall approve the representative for state shareholding in member companies, perform supervision to support the management of the Management Board and the General Director and the utilization of state capital in affiliates.

- The General Director and the assisting team execute the internal auditing in subsidiaries. - The MOT shall supervise and evaluate the company’s business performance as well as classify

the company. 2. The company is supervised by relevant state agencies in its financial activities and financial

statements.

CHAPTER VI IMPLEMENTATION

Article 27. Implementation The Management Board and the General Director are responsible for implementing financial management regulations stipulated in this Decision and other legislative provisions. Difficulties emerged during implementation should be timely reported to MOT for resolutions.

THE MOT MINISTER

HO NGHIA DUNG (signed)



APPENDIX 3 PRIME MINISTER’S DECISION ON PILOTING SOME MECHANISMS IN VEC

PRIME MINISTER

No.: 1202/Q�-TTg

SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF VIET NAM Independence – Freedom – Happiness

Ha Noi, 10thSeptember, 2007

DECISION On Piloting Some Mechanisms, Policies Applied To Expressway Investment Operation

Projects of The Employer - Viet Nam Expressway Corporation

PRIME MINISTER

Pursuant to Law on Organization of the Government dated December 25, 2001; Pursuant to Law on Enterprise dated November 29, 2005; Pursuant to Law on Investment dated November 29, 2005; At the proposal of Minister of Transport,

DECISION:

Article 1. Modification Scope and Subjects to apply The decision prescribes the pilot of some mechanisms, policies applied to expressway investment and operation projects (hereinafter referred to as “Expressway Projects”) under management of the Employer - Viet Nam Expressway Corporation (VEC) Article 2. Content of Pilot Mechanisms and Policies for Application 1. For the expressway projects, which are appraised by the authorized state-owned agencies to be

efficient and credit-worthy, on-lending policy can be applied to the Government’s ODA loan; OCR loan or commercial loan of the Governments or of the international credit organization; or to the long-term international bond of the Government.

2. Subject to each highway investment project, VEC reserves the right to issue domestic or international Bond as regulated under the Government’s guarantee. In case, during the project’s payback period, VEC cannot recover capital from project’s income or sources to repay the loan, additional bond can be issued for repayment purpose. MOF will consider and submit to the Prime Minister’s approval for each case.

3. VEC is entitled to borrow the development and investment capital as stipulated in Decree No.151/2006/ND-CP of the Government dated 20th December, 2006 on investment and export credit of the State, for investing in expressway projects

4. VEC shall decide toll level for the expressways, of which he is the Employer, to ensure repayment requirement of the project (except for the projects, which are requested by the authorized state-owned agency to apply the toll level regulated by the Government).

5. VEC is assigned to develop services along the expressway, of which VEC is the Employer (such as filling station, stopping station, advertisement and other works) in accordance with law and regulations. The outputs gained from operating these services, if any, shall be input in the investment efficiency of the project.

6. For expressway investment projects which are required by the State for investment but credit-worthiness is low, the Government may consider a subsidy for compensation, support, resettlement and land acquisition costs.

7. VEC is entitled to use his charter capital based on the principle of concentrating to complete his duties for investment operation of the expressways, of which he is the Employer, and concurrently to balance his capital for serving his business and production of the works assigned to him.



In the period of toll collection for capital payback of every project, the income gained from toll collection or transferring operation right shall be given priority for use in order to payback capital sources borrowed and/or mobilized by VEC.

8. Ministry of Finance is required to supplement the lacking amount to VEC so that by the year 2008, VEC’s charter capital can reach the amount of 1,000 billion VND. From 2009, based upon status of VEC’s business and capital demand, Ministry of Finance shall consider to supplement charter capital to VEC annually as regulated.

9. At the initial construction and toll collection stages, in case VEC has no any profits from all production, business and service activities in fiscal year, VEC shall be entitled to set up 2 (two) reward and welfare funds. The deduction rate shall not exceed two monthly-salaries and be post into accounts of project operation and management and toll collection management cost.

Article 3. Responsibility of Viet Nam Expressway Corporation (VEC) 1. Board of Directors, General Director of VEC take responsibility for your decision to the law and ensure

that the Expressway Projects, of which VEC is the Employer, shall be implemented in due accordance with regulations stated in this decision and other relevant laws so that the project can be put into operation as scheduled, with quality assurance and investment efficiency.

2. Based upon the master plan, which is approved by authorized agencies, VEC shall take the initiative in selecting the expressway alignment to submit to the authorized agency for assigning duties and promoting the investment preparation work.

Article 4. Responsibilities of Ministries, Branches, People’s Committee of Provinces,

Centrally-run cities. 1. Ministry of Transport has responsibility for implementing the State management function in due

accordance with the regulations and timely resolving difficulties and obstacles within his authority or reporting Prime Minister the matters beyond his authority; and instructing VEC to map out privatization plan and submit for approval as regulated.

2. Ministry of Finance shall be responsibility for acting as a guarantee for payment of domestic and international Bond issued by VEC; for cooperating with Ministry of Transport and Ministry of Planning and Investment to consider the capital payback capability of some projects assigned to VEC and propose to Prime Minister measures of subsidy from State Budget in accordance with the regulation at item 6, Article 2 of this Decision.

3. Ministries: Construction, National Defense, Natural Resource and Environment, Agriculture and Rural Development, Information and Communications, Ministry of Industry and Trade, State Bank of Viet Nam shall take responsibilities for cooperating with Ministry of Transport and facilitating VEC to implement effectively the expressway investment projects.

4. People’s Committee of provinces, centrally-run cities, at which the project route runs through, shall bear responsibility to chair and cooperate with VEC in implementation of compensation, assistance, resettlement and land acquisition works in accordance with regulations; to give favour conditions to VEC to realize his right of operating services along expressway (as regulated at item 5 Article 2 of this Decision) within management scope of the locality.

Article 5. Implementation Organization This Decision became effective as from signing date. Ministers of Ministries: Transportation, Finance, Planning and Investment, Construction, National Defense, Natural Resource and Environment, Agriculture and Rural Development, Information and Communications, Industry and Trade; Governor of State Bank of Viet Nam, Chairmen of People’s Committee of provinces and centrally-run cities, at which the project runs through, Board of Directors, General Director of VEC and Leaders of related Agencies have responsibility for implementation of this Decision./.



Address: - Secretary of the CPV Central Committee; - PM, Deputy of PMs, - MOT, MPI, MOF, MOC, MONRE, MIC, MARD, MND, MIT, - PC of provinces, centrally-run cities; - The Central Government Office and Dept. of the Party; - SBV; - Bank for Development of Viet Nam; - VEC; - Government Office, and departments……, Website of the Government; - Files: the Office, CN (5b).120

FOR PRIME MINISTER DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER

(Signed)

NGUYEN SINH HUNG



APPENDIX 4 CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS OF VEC 2008 – 2035 (UNIT: US$ MILLION)

ITEM Total 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

A. INCOME STATEMENT

GROSS REVENUE 0.36 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 99.60 132.28 149.85 208.20 231.01 276.83 338.06 365.96 414.86 462.16 531.76 606.36 659.91 731.53 760.62 877.70 975.29 1,002.29 1,128.99 1,139.29 1,224.16 1,365.10 1,362.78VAT to Revenue 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.96 13.23 14.99 20.82 23.10 27.68 33.81 36.60 41.49 46.22 53.18 60.64 65.99 73.15 76.06 87.77 97.53 100.23 112.90 113.93 122.42 136.51 136.28TOTAL REVENUE 0.36 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 89.64 119.06 134.87 187.38 207.90 249.14 304.26 329.36 373.38 415.94 478.58 545.72 593.92 658.37 684.56 789.93 877.76 902.06 1,016.09 1,025.36 1,101.75 1,228.59 1,226.50O/M Cost 0.36 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 9.38 9.98 10.63 20.18 21.43 22.76 24.17 33.12 89.96 36.39 47.71 41.17 43.79 46.52 49.49 63.65 144.92 59.74 63.17 66.81 83.55 74.73 79.04Operating Profit 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 80.27 109.07 124.23 167.20 186.47 226.39 280.09 296.24 283.42 379.55 430.88 504.56 550.14 611.86 635.06 726.28 732.85 842.33 952.92 958.55 1,018.20 1,153.86 1,147.46Depreciation 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 45.92 61.13 61.13 95.76 95.76 95.76 95.76 95.76 95.76 95.76 96.71 97.66 97.66 97.66 97.66 97.66 97.66 97.66 97.66 97.66 98.65 99.64 99.64Interest (ADF) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42Interest (OCR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.06 20.67 47.90 46.91 45.83 45.14 43.81 42.35 40.75 38.98 37.05 34.92 32.58 30.01 27.19 24.08 20.67 16.92 12.79 8.25 4.51 1.65Interest (JBIC) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83Interest (co-financier JICA) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.56 8.12 7.68 7.24 6.80 6.36 5.92 5.48 5.05 4.61 4.17 3.73 3.29 2.85 2.41Interest (Bond) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 46.88 46.88 46.88 46.88 46.88 46.88 46.88 46.88 46.88 46.88 46.88 38.57 34.35 23.31 11.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total Interest charges 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 46.88 67.94 67.55 94.77 96.82 95.61 102.68 100.82 107.38 104.81 102.08 90.86 83.54 69.20 54.09 38.56 34.48 30.10 25.38 20.28 14.78 10.07 6.23PROFIT BEFORE TAX 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -12.54 -20.00 -4.45 -23.34 -6.11 35.01 81.65 99.66 80.27 178.98 232.09 316.03 368.93 444.99 483.31 590.07 600.70 714.57 829.88 840.61 904.77 1,044.15 1,041.59Corporate tax 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.55 24.91 20.07 43.22 58.02 79.01 92.23 111.25 120.83 147.52 150.18 178.64 207.47 210.15 226.19 261.04 260.40PROFIT AFTER TAX 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -12.54 -20.00 -4.45 -23.34 -6.11 35.01 69.09 74.74 60.20 135.76 174.07 237.03 276.70 333.74 362.48 442.55 450.53 535.93 622.41 630.46 678.58 783.11 781.19

B. CASH FLOW STATEMENT

Operating Income 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -12.54 -20.00 -4.45 -23.34 -6.11 35.01 69.09 74.74 60.20 135.76 174.07 237.03 276.70 333.74 362.48 442.55 450.53 535.93 622.41 630.46 678.58 783.11 781.19Depreciation 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 45.92 61.13 61.13 95.76 95.76 95.76 95.76 95.76 95.76 95.76 96.71 97.66 97.66 97.66 97.66 97.66 97.66 97.66 97.66 97.66 98.65 99.64 99.64Net CF from operation 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.39 41.13 56.68 72.42 89.65 130.77 164.86 170.51 155.97 231.52 270.78 334.69 374.36 431.41 460.15 540.21 548.19 633.59 720.07 728.12 777.23 882.75 880.83Equity 56.00 2.46 1.03 141.24 164.58 11.04Loan 140.19 309.86 525.87 555.73 771.93 271.76TOTAL INFLOWS 196.19 312.32 526.90 696.97 936.50 316.18 41.13 56.68 72.42 89.65 130.77 164.86 170.51 155.97 231.52 270.78 334.69 374.36 431.41 460.15 540.21 548.19 633.59 720.07 728.12 777.23 882.75 880.83

Investment Cost 196.19 312.32 526.90 696.97 936.50 282.80Bond interest paymentsDebt Repayment 7.16 7.88 24.28 35.12 63.62 67.18 70.41 106.04 109.95 189.81 157.35 224.47 235.13 242.93 143.13 150.75 159.13 168.35 178.49 189.64 153.73 162.41TOTAL OUTFLOWS 196.19 312.32 526.90 696.97 936.50 282.80 7.16 7.88 24.28 35.12 63.62 67.18 70.41 106.04 109.95 189.81 157.35 224.47 235.13 242.93 143.13 150.75 159.13 168.35 178.49 189.64 153.73 162.41

NET CASH FLOW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.39 33.97 48.80 48.15 54.53 67.16 97.67 100.09 49.93 121.58 80.97 177.34 149.89 196.27 217.21 397.08 397.44 474.46 551.72 549.63 587.59 729.02 718.42

C. BALANCE SHEET

CURRENT ASSETS 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 33.73 67.70 116.51 164.66 219.19 286.35 384.02 484.11 534.04 655.62 736.59 913.93 1,063.82 1,260.09 1,477.31 1,874.39 2,271.83 2,746.29 3,298.02 3,847.65 4,435.24 5,164.26 5,882.68

Fixed Assets 198.48 532.91 1,093.14 1,844.53 3,024.14 3,506.35 3,846.61 4,203.87 4,242.11 4,278.83 4,287.74 4,296.27 4,304.92 4,304.92 4,304.92 4,304.92 4,304.92 4,304.92 4,304.92 4,304.92 4,304.92 4,304.92 4,304.92 4,304.92 4,304.92 4,304.92 4,304.92 4,304.92Accumulated depreciation 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 45.95 107.08 168.22 263.98 359.74 455.51 551.27 647.04 742.80 838.57 935.28 1,032.94 1,130.60 1,228.27 1,325.93 1,423.59 1,521.25 1,618.92 1,716.58 1,814.24 1,912.89 2,012.53 2,112.17NET FIXED ASSETS 198.45 532.88 1,093.12 1,844.51 3,024.11 3,460.40 3,739.53 4,035.65 3,978.13 3,919.08 3,832.23 3,745.00 3,657.89 3,562.12 3,466.36 3,369.64 3,271.98 3,174.32 3,076.66 2,978.99 2,881.33 2,783.67 2,686.01 2,588.35 2,490.68 2,392.03 2,292.40 2,192.76

TOTAL ASSETS 198.80 533.23 1,093.46 1,844.85 3,024.46 3,494.13 3,807.23 4,152.16 4,142.78 4,138.27 4,118.57 4,129.02 4,142.00 4,096.16 4,121.97 4,106.23 4,185.91 4,238.14 4,336.75 4,456.30 4,755.72 5,055.50 5,432.30 5,886.36 6,338.34 6,827.27 7,456.66 8,075.44

Acc. Loan 142.48 474.45 1,033.65 1,643.80 2,658.83 3,130.00 3,452.06 3,790.40 3,804.37 3,805.97 3,751.26 3,692.61 3,630.85 3,524.81 3,414.86 3,225.05 3,067.71 2,843.24 2,608.10 2,365.17 2,222.04 2,071.30 1,912.17 1,743.82 1,565.34 1,375.70 1,221.97 1,059.56Equity 56.32 58.78 59.81 201.05 365.63 364.13 355.17 361.75 338.41 332.30 367.31 436.41 511.15 571.35 707.11 881.18 1,118.20 1,394.90 1,728.65 2,091.13 2,533.68 2,984.21 3,520.13 4,142.54 4,773.00 5,451.58 6,234.69 7,015.88

EQUITY AND LIABILITIES 198.80 533.23 1,093.46 1,844.85 3,024.46 3,494.13 3,807.23 4,152.16 4,142.78 4,138.27 4,118.57 4,129.02 4,142.00 4,096.16 4,121.97 4,106.23 4,185.91 4,238.14 4,336.75 4,456.30 4,755.72 5,055.50 5,432.30 5,886.36 6,338.34 6,827.27 7,456.66 8,075.44

DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio)Debt to Total Assets

TOTAL OF CASH AVAILABLE FOR DEBT SERVICERevenue 0.36 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 99.60 132.28 149.85 208.20 231.01 276.83 338.06 365.96 414.86 462.16 531.76 606.36 659.91 731.53 760.62 877.70 975.29 1,002.29 1,128.99 1,139.29 1,224.16 1,365.10 1,362.78O/M Cost 0.36 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 9.38 9.98 10.63 20.18 21.43 22.76 24.17 33.12 89.96 36.39 47.71 41.17 43.79 46.52 49.49 63.65 144.92 59.74 63.17 66.81 83.55 74.73 79.04Reinvestment (Maint Equip) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00VAT to Revenue 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.96 13.23 14.99 20.82 23.10 27.68 33.81 36.60 41.49 46.22 53.18 60.64 65.99 73.15 76.06 87.77 97.53 100.23 112.90 113.93 122.42 136.51 136.28Corporate Tax 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.55 24.91 20.07 43.22 58.02 79.01 92.23 111.25 120.83 147.52 150.18 178.64 207.47 210.15 226.19 261.04 260.40

Sub-Total 80.27 109.07 124.23 167.20 186.47 226.39 267.53 271.32 263.35 336.33 372.86 425.55 457.90 500.61 514.23 578.77 582.67 663.69 745.45 748.40 792.01 892.82 887.06

TOTAL OF DEBT SERVICEPrincipal payment 7.16 7.88 24.28 35.12 37.79 67.18 70.41 106.04 109.95 189.81 157.35 224.47 235.13 242.93 143.13 150.75 159.13 168.35 178.49 189.64 153.73 162.41ADB (OCR) 7.16 7.88 24.28 26.70 29.37 32.94 36.17 39.73 43.64 47.94 52.67 57.87 63.59 69.89 76.82 84.43 92.82 102.03 112.17 123.33 87.42 96.09ADB (ADF) 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.42JBIC 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83 25.83Co-financier (JICA) 32.07 32.07 32.07 32.07 32.07 32.07 32.07 32.07 32.07 32.07 32.07 32.07 32.07 32.07 32.07Bond 75.56 38.37 100.29 105.22 106.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Interest payment 46.88 67.94 67.55 94.77 96.82 95.61 102.68 100.82 107.38 104.81 102.08 90.86 83.54 69.20 54.09 38.56 34.48 30.10 25.38 20.28 14.78 10.07 6.23ADB (OCR) 21.06 20.67 47.90 46.91 45.83 45.14 43.81 42.35 40.75 38.98 37.05 34.92 32.58 30.01 27.19 24.08 20.67 16.92 12.79 8.25 4.51 1.65ADB (ADF) 3.03 2.90 2.78 2.65 2.53 2.40 2.27 2.15 2.02 1.89 1.77 1.64 1.52 1.39 1.26 1.14 1.01 0.88 0.76JBIC 7.88 7.48 7.07 6.67 6.26 5.86 5.46 5.05 4.65 4.24 3.84 3.44 3.03 2.63 2.22 1.82 1.41Co-financier (JICA) 8.56 8.12 7.68 7.24 6.80 6.36 5.92 5.48 5.05 4.61 4.17 3.73 3.29 2.85 2.41Bond 46.88 46.88 46.88 46.88 46.88 46.88 46.88 46.88 46.88 46.88 46.88 38.57 34.35 23.31 11.74 0.00

Sub-Total 46.88 75.10 75.43 119.05 131.94 133.40 169.86 171.23 213.42 214.76 291.89 248.21 308.01 304.34 297.02 181.68 185.23 189.23 193.72 198.77 204.42 163.80 168.64

DSCR 1.71 1.45 1.65 1.40 1.41 1.70 1.58 1.58 1.23 1.57 1.28 1.71 1.49 1.64 1.73 3.19 3.15 3.51 3.85 3.77 3.87 5.45 5.26DEBT RATIO 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.83 0.79 0.73 0.67 0.60 0.53 0.47 0.41 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.16 0.13

WORKING RATIO 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.10 0.08 0.08 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.10 0.24 0.09 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.17 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.06 0.06O&M 0.36 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 9.38 9.98 10.63 20.18 21.43 22.76 24.17 33.12 89.96 36.39 47.71 41.17 43.79 46.52 49.49 63.65 144.92 59.74 63.17 66.81 83.55 74.73 79.04Revenue 0.36 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 89.64 119.06 134.87 187.38 207.90 249.14 304.26 329.36 373.38 415.94 478.58 545.72 593.92 658.37 684.56 789.93 877.76 902.06 1,016.09 1,025.36 1,101.75 1,228.59 1,226.50

APPENDIX 1 ROAD USER COSTS

Table of Contents Page

1. VEHICLE OPERATING COSTS................................................................................. A1-1 1.1 Representative Vehicles ........................................................................................ A1-1 1.2 Vehicle Characteristics .......................................................................................... A1-3 1.3 Running Costs ....................................................................................................... A1-4 1.4 Vehicle Capital Costs............................................................................................. A1-5 1.5 Unit Prices ............................................................................................................. A1-7

2. TIME COSTS ............................................................................................................. A1-14 2.1 Passenger Time Costs .......................................................................................... A1-14 2.2 Freight Time Costs ................................................................................................ A1-17

3. GENERATED TRAFFIC BENEFITS........................................................................... A1-18

A1-1

1. VEHICLE OPERATING COSTS

1.1 Representative Vehicles

In the HDM-4 model 16 motorized vehicle types are provided as representative vehicles, with an additional 4 non-motorized vehicle types. These can be used as a basis for defining the vehicle fleet to be used in an analysis. Each motorized vehicle is defined by a set of data containing over 150 items. Default input values are provided for the great majority of these parameters, including typical operating characteristics such as annual km operated and vehicle weights. The only inputs for which specific data must be specified to complete the input values are unit prices for vehicles, fuel, tires, etc. However, many of the default values need to be adjusted to produce realistic estimates of vehicle operating costs.

The Road User Cost Knowledge System (RUCKS) a spreadsheet model developed by the World Bank using the HDN-4 parameters was used for this Study. This allows operating costs for 12 motorized vehicle types to be determined simultaneously. Among the representative vehicles used as base vehicles in HDM-4 there are examples that closely match all of the eleven types used in the traffic counts, and these have been used in the analysis. Brief descriptions of the vehicle types used in the analysis are given below.

(1) Motorcycle

Many models are available in Viet Nam, but the great majority have engine capacities in the range of 70 cc to 125 cc. Japanese makes such as Honda, Yamaha and Suzuki predominate, but in recent years lower-priced Chinese brands have been introduced. Although the Chinese motorcycles are much cheaper there are relatively few in use, especially in the main urban areas. Almost all motorcycles are assembled in Viet Nam, with a high level of local components. The import duty on components for motorcycles has now been raised to the same level as that for fully-assembled machines. Motorcycles are generally used for private transport, but many are also used to provide a taxi service for passengers, or to carry small amounts of freight. A variety of locally made three-wheel vehicles based on motorcycles, known as lambros, operate in Viet Nam, but the numbers operating in the project area are too small to justify a separate vehicle category.

(2) Car

This type includes sedan cars and station wagons. They are used for private passenger transport, with many also operated by businesses and government, and used commercially as taxis, mostly in urban areas. A wide range of types is operated in Viet Nam but the majority are sedan cars with 4-cylinder engines of up to 2000 cc. A significant proportion in the main urban centers are higher value and luxury cars, but these are rare outside such areas. The majority of cars in use are of Japanese or Korean origin, with most assembled in Viet Nam because of the higher duties charged on fully built up (FBU) vehicle imports. Vehicles with 7-8 seats, such as the Toyota Innova, are included in the car category. The Toyota Innova and Camry are the best selling cars in Viet Nam, with the lower priced Korean brands Hyundai, Daewoo and Kia taking the next three places in the market.

(3) 4-wheel Drive Vehicle

Four-wheel drive (4x4) vehicles are often used in Viet Nam for private transport as an alternative to sedan cars. The popular Mitsubishi Pajero range is no longer available commercially in Viet Nam, and most new sales are Toyota Landcruisers and the luxury brand Lexus. These are all imported as FBU vehicles rather than assembled in Viet Nam. Typically they have 2500-5000 cc diesel engines. They are expensive vehicles, with the prices of most models about twice that of sedan cars of the same make. They are generally not distinguished as a separate category in road studies, but they often are in Viet Nam because numbers are significant, and they have higher operating costs and average passenger occupancy. Other 4x4 vehicles, such as the Ford Escape and Ranger, are included in the Pick-up category referred to below.

A1-2

(4) Minibus

The minibus type is typically a 12-15 seat vehicle, sometimes referred to as a microbus or van. In Viet Nam they are only a small proportion of the vehicle fleet. They are often used for private company transport or for express and tourist transport, rather than for regular public transport as in many other countries. The Toyota Hiace and the Ford Transit are the market leaders. Virtually all newly registered vehicles are assembled on Viet Nam.

(5) Small Bus

The small bus typically has 16-25 seats and an engine capacity of not less than 2800 cc. They are distinguished from the minibus type by having dual wheels on the rear axle. Some are assembled in Viet Nam, but most vehicles in this category are imported from Korea or Japan, with the Hyundai Chorus, Kia Combi, Toyota Coaster and Nissan Civilian the most popular current models.

(6) Large Bus

Buses with 26 seats or more have been classified as large buses in this Study. In this category Daewoo and Transinco assemble buses in Viet Nam, but these are mostly for urban use, and the great majority of large buses in highway use are Korean-made Hyundai models. The most common are the Aero Express and Aero Space models, which normally have 46 seats. Most currently in use have been imported as second-hand vehicles, typically when about two years old, but import duties are now much higher on second-hand vehicles than on new vehicles, and the majority of recent imports have been of new vehicles. The HDM-4 Medium Bus type is used as the base vehicle (the HDM-4 Large Bus type is a three-axle vehicle not used in Viet Nam).

(7) Pick-up

These vehicles, also known as utilities, are used as light freight vehicles or for private transport as an alternative to sedan cars. They are not particularly common in Viet Nam compared with other countries in the region, probably because the range that is assembled in Viet Nam is limited and imported vehicles are not competitive because of the high rate of duty. The smallest vehicles have engines of below 1000 cc and a carrying capacity of less than 1 ton, with the Suzuki Carry a popular model of this type. However, most in this category have diesel engines of 2500 cc and a carrying capacity of about 1.2 tons, with the Ford Ranger the most popular of these larger vehicles. Many are twin-cab versions, rather than the single cab, suggesting that they are often used as an alternative to a car for private transport. Very small trucks are also included in this category, being distinguished from the light truck category described below in having only single wheels on the rear axle.

(8) Light Truck

These are trucks with a gross vehicle weight (GVW) usually in the range five to seven tons with a payload of up to 3.5 tons. They have dual wheels on the rear axle. The Mitsubishi Canter and the Isuzu NKR range have been assembled in Viet Nam for some time, with the body made locally. More recently much lower priced vehicles of Chinese origin have been assembled locally by private truck maker Vinaxuki. Much of the fleet is composed of imported vehicles, usually second-hand Hyundai or Kia models from Korea. Manufacturers have increased the capacity of these vehicles in recent years and the latest models have payload capacities of 4 tons.

(9) Medium Truck

These are the same configuration as the light truck, having two axles and dual wheels on the rear axle, but are significantly larger. They usually have a GVW between 12 and 16 tons and have a carrying capacity up 6 to10 tons. They are the most common category of vehicles, other than motorcycles, operating on most roads. Many different models are operated in Viet Nam. Older vehicles are often of Russian or eastern European manufacture, mostly Kamaz and IFA models, but most newer vehicles are Japanese Hino or Korean Hyundai makes. Some have specialized bodies and operate as dump trucks or tankers. Hino trucks are assembled in Viet Nam and local truck and bus maker Truong Hai now also assembles trucks in this category, but the great majority of the current fleet has been imported, mostly as second-hand vehicles from Korea, or more recently new vehicles from China.

A1-3

(10) Heavy Truck

These are rigid trucks with more than two axles. The most common type is a three-axle truck, with a tandem rear axle and dual wheels on the rear axles. They are commonly referred to as “10 wheelers”. The GVW of such vehicles is typically 20 to 28 tonnes with a 10 to15 tonnes load capacity. Four-axle trucks could not be registered in Viet Nam for a time, but are now common. Chinese trucks crossing the border at Lao Cai are often four-axle vehicles. Until recently all heavy trucks were imported, mostly as second-hand vehicles, with Hyundai models the dominate make. Now some heavy trucks are assembled in Viet Nam, and other are imported new because of the import duty penalty on second-hand imports.

(11) Articulated Truck

These vehicles, which are also known as semi-trailers, are becoming more common in Viet Nam, but are still a small part of the fleet. Various configurations operate, with the most common type having a three-axle prime mover and a two-axle trailer. They typically have a GVW of 40-44 tonnes and a recommended load of 20-25 tonnes. Many such vehicles are used to transport containers. The prime movers (or tractor units) are imported, usually second-hand, and coupled with locally renovated trailers. The main brands of prime movers are International and Hyundai.

1.2 Vehicle Characteristics

The key characteristics of the vehicles are based on the specified default values in the HDM-4 VOC model, with some adjustment for Vietnamese characteristics and conditions. The more important characteristics are shown in Table A1.1. HDM-4 requires a number of input values relating to vehicle age and annual utilization that are used to calculate the capital cost component of VOCs, that is depreciation and interest. Vehicle age, expressed as average life, is also used in the calculation of vehicle maintenance costs. These inputs are difficult to determine. Estimates have been made from the information used in other studies in Viet Nam, and also from owner-interviews. Vehicle registration and import statistics have been considered, although these are not detailed enough to give more than a general impression of the age structure of the vehicle fleet.

It does seem that, despite the rapid increase in the size of the vehicle fleet, the average age of vehicles in Viet Nam is higher than in some developing countries, with some very old vehicles in use. With all vehicle types there is a general pattern of new vehicles being used intensively for a few years and then used less intensively as they become older, with some vehicles still operated when more than 20 or even 30 years old. This is especially so in the case of trucks, but these older vehicles are generally used only for short hauls, with much lower utilization. Therefore the average service life used as input to the model is less than the estimated average age of all vehicles, to reflect that the majority of annual vehicle-km are operated by the newer vehicles in the fleet. The average life used for vehicles also reflects that many of the larger trucks and buses have been imported second-hand, and the vehicle prices used reflect this, so the defined service life in Viet Nam is less than the total service life. The assumed average utilization and other basic characteristics for each vehicle category are shown in Table A1.1.

Table A1.1 Basic Vehicle Characteristics

Vehicle Type No of Tires

Fuel Type

Annual km

Annual working hours

Average life

(years)

No. of Crew

Average Passenger Load

GVW

Motorcycle 2 P 10,000 400 8 - 1.5 0.20Car 4 P 15,000 600 12 0.3 2.5 1.204- Wheel Drive 4 D 20,000 800 10 0.7 3.0 1.60Minibus 4 P 35,000 1,500 10 1 10.0 1.70Small Bus 6 D 50,000 2,000 10 2 19.0 4.50Large Bus 6 D 50,000 2,000 10 3 35.0 9.00Pick-up 4 D 25,000 1,500 12 1 - 1.80Light Truck 6 D 40,000 1,500 12 2 - 5.00Medium Truck 6 D 40,000 1,500 12 2 - 12.00Heavy Truck 10 D 40,000 1,500 12 2 - 18.00Articulated Truck 18 D 40,000 1,500 12 2 - 30.00Notes: P=Petrol, D=Diesel, GVW= Gross Vehicle Weight Source: Consultant’s estimates

A1-4

1.3 Running Costs

The HDM-4 model predicts the consumption of resources for each component of vehicle operating cost per kilometer, such as the number of liters of fuel consumed and amount of tire wear, for each category of vehicles. The model takes into account a wide range of factors, including the surface condition and geometry of each road section, and the characteristics of representative vehicles. When multiplied by the appropriate unit prices, such as VND per liter of fuel and VND per tire, this consumption is converted to a cost per kilometer. The model gives estimates of consumption that are broadly consistent with the information obtained from vehicle operators, although generally predicted consumption is higher than that reported. In this regard HDM-4 is a significant improvement over HDM-III, which produced unacceptable estimates in some case, particularly in regard to vehicle maintenance and repair costs. A number of changes have been made to make the results reflect reported costs more closely, as described below. It is not possible to verify consumption rates over the whole range of road conditions, but the results appear realistic.

(1) Fuel Consumption

Fuel consumption predicted by HDM-4 is considered to be too low compared with information from operators in the case of most vehicle types. One possible reason is that some of the vehicle fleet is composed of relatively old technology vehicles, which have higher fuel consumption than more modern designs. It is considered appropriate to make adjustments. Initially this was done using Kpea, the calibration factor for total engine and accessories power. However, this factor is only available in the latest versions of the full HDM-4 model, and not in the RUCKS model, which was used for the VOC calculations. Therefore calibration was carried out using ZETAB, the base fuel-to-power efficiency factor (ml/kW.s), a recommended parameter for adjusting fuel consumption.

(2) Tire Wear

In the model tire consumption rates are calculated as the number of equivalent new tires consumed per 1000 veh-km for each wheel. Many factors are taken into account, including the type of tire, the volume of wearable rubber in the tire, the weight of the vehicle, and the number of wheels on the vehicle. Road condition is taken into account in the model by calculating the forces acting on the tire, which are largely determined by road curvature. The roughness of the road is not taken into account directly. The tire wear predicted is too low for all vehicle types, especially on level, straight roads in good condition, when compared with the evidence from vehicle operators. For other roads the tire wear is generally a little too low. Adjustment of the model was carried out by increasing substantially the value of C0tc, the constant term of the tire tread wear model, and making minor adjustments to Ctcte, the wear coefficient of the tire tread wear model.

The revised values for fuel consumption and tire wear coefficients are shown in Table A1.2

Table A1.2 Amended Fuel Consumption and Tire Wear Coefficients

Tire Wear Vehicle Type Base Fuel

Efficiency (ml/kW/s) Wear Constant Term - C0tc

Wear Coefficient - Ctcte

Motor cycle 0.07 0.03 0.002 Car 0.10 0.07 0.008 4-Wheel Drive 0.08 0.07 0.008 Minibus 0.08 0.08 0.006 Small Bus 0.10 0.07 0.006 Large Bus 0.07 0.08 0.004 Utility 0.10 0.09 0.008 Light Truck 0.07 0.06 0.003 Medium Truck 0.09 0.09 0.004 Heavy Truck 0.07 0.11 0.003 Articulated Truck 0.07 0.11 0.003

Source: Consultant’s estimates

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(3) Oil Consumption

No changes have been made to the model in regard to oil consumption and vehicle maintenance. Oil consumption is not significant because it is only a minor component of VOC and is not affected significantly by road conditions. Changes in road condition and vehicle speed have little impact on oil consumption, and because it is the difference in VOC between different road and traffic conditions that is important in an evaluation, it is not necessary to calibrate the oil consumption component.

(4) Maintenance

Vehicle maintenance is an important component of VOC, and is affected by road conditions, especially roughness. It is calculated as parts consumption per 1000 veh-km, expressed as a fraction of the average new (or replacement) vehicle price, plus the number of maintenance labor hours required per 1,000 km. Information on maintenance costs is not consistent, with different operators reporting very different costs for maintaining similar vehicles operating on similar routes, but the HDM-4 results appear to be close to the average reported costs. The HDM-4 predicted maintenance results for roads with rough surfaces are probably higher than actual costs, but because such roads are not involved this study no adjustment was considered necessary.

1.4 Vehicle Capital Costs

The capital cost of vehicles are an important component of vehicle operating costs. Interest costs are included in VOC per km by dividing the annual interest cost (determined from the price of a new vehicle and the interest rate) by the annual utilization in km. Depreciation is included as a component in VOC per km by dividing the price of a new vehicle by the overall service life of the vehicle in km.

(1) Vehicle Utilization

The assumed average values relating to utilization used in the VOC calculations were shown in Table A1.1 above for each vehicle category. The distance driven per year is important as it is used to convert annual charges, such as interest payments, from an annual cost to a cost per km. If a specified distance driven per year is not the basic input used to express utilization, the model must derive this to convert charges from an annual cost to a cost per km. The utilization models to do this can be of three types:

1. Constant hourly utilization - where the annual hours are user-specified and annual distance is function of hours and predicted speed.

2. Constant distance utilization - where the annual kilometrage is user-specified, and will not vary with speed.

3. Adjusted utilization - in which speed changes affect annual distance utilization according to some form of model and user specified parameters.

HDM-4 uses both constant hourly utilization and adjusted utilization models for different aspects of modeling costs.

(2) Interest Costs

In the previous HDM-III model the utilization specified by the user, in terms of km driven, was used directly to determine interest costs per km. There has been a major change with HDM-4, which incorporates a constant hourly utilization model, and this is considered to cause difficulties in determining appropriate interest costs. The relationship between hours and km used in the model is:

SHRDAKM 0� where AKM is the annual utilization in km HRD0 is the annual utilization in hours driven (user specified) S is the predicted speed for the link in km/h

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The relationship implies that all time savings on a trip are used for additional travel. This is not realistic for most vehicles, and especially so for those in private use. For vehicles with a low annual utilization the interest cost saving from a road improvement that results in higher speeds can produce a large part of the total VOC saving, when no significant economic benefit is occurring. Some adjustment to the interest costs component of VOCs is considered necessary. The only method of making this adjustment with the HDM-4 model is to reduce the interest rate. If the interest rate is reduced by 50 percent this has the same effect as specifying that 50 percent of time savings from higher speeds can be utilized for additional trips. (In this regard HDM-4 is considered to be inferior to HDM-III, which includes the hourly utilization ratio as an input, and this enables the user to specify the proportion of time savings that could be utilized to make additional trips.)

In this Study the length of the Project and the large difference in speeds between then expressway and existing roads results in journey time savings of several hours. It is considered that this provides the opportunity for a much larger number of additional trips to be made than in most road projects. It has therefore been assumed that 85 percent of time savings would be utilized for additional trips in the case of buses, trucks and utilities, and 20 percent for other vehicles (cars, four-wheel drive vehicles and motorcycles). Adjustment has been made to the interest rate applied consistent with these assumptions, which results in significant reductions in overall VOC savings obtained from higher speeds in the case of the smaller vehicles.

(3) Depreciation Costs

In HDM-4 two user options are currently available as a basis for calculating the depreciation component of VOCs :

Constant life - in which the service life in years is specified and held constant; service life in km is varies as a function of predicted speed.

Optimal life - in which service life in km varies as a function of roughness.

The constant life method is the default option for cars, four-wheel drive vehicles and motorcycles, which are assumed to be predominantly used for private journeys rather than operated commercially. When the constant life method is used it is necessary to specify the average proportion of private use each vehicle type, because one of two methods is used in the model to determine the average service life of vehicles. The two equations used in HDM-4 with the constant life method are:

00 LIFEAKMLIFEKM � if private use > 50%

00 LIFEHRWKSLIFEKM � if private use � 50% where LIFEKM is the service life in km AKM0 is the user specified annual utilization in km LIFE0 is the user specified service life in years S is the predicted speed for the road section HRWK0 is the user specified annual utilization in hours driven

However, in practice the HDM-4 model does not offer the choice that is referred to in the documentation. When the constant life method is selected, the first equation is only applied to vehicles for which the base vehicle type is a car. Thus, whatever proportion of private use is specified for any vehicle other than a car, only the second equation is used. With this equation depreciation reduces linearly with speed. The proportion of private use has no effect. There will therefore be an automatic decrease in depreciation costs per km in direct proportion to the speed increase. In Viet Nam, where there is significant commercial use of all vehicle types, it is not considered appropriate to use the constant life method. This decrease in depreciation costs will overestimate the benefits of a road improvement that produces an increase in vehicle speeds, especially where the specified annual utilization in hours is low.

For cars, the only effect of specifying different proportions of private use is the use of one of the two equations shown above, with 50 percent the deciding value. There is no difference in depreciation costs if private use is, for example, 10 percent or 40 percent. If at least 50 percent private use is specified for cars, the model gives no change in depreciation cost as a result of increases in speed (there can be a small

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change in depreciation costs through the impact of road roughness on the residual value of vehicles). If private use of cars is specified as below 50 percent depreciation decreases linearly with speed as for all other vehicles.

Therefore the constant life method is not considered satisfactory for any vehicle type and the optimal life method has been used to calculate depreciation costs for all vehicle types. This method determines the utilization of the vehicle by estimating the point at which vehicle repair costs make it economical to replace the vehicle. With the optimal life method, the service life of the vehicle and depreciation costs are linked to road roughness. Thus there are benefits in the form of depreciation costs in VOC from road improvements that reduce surface roughness, which will apply in the case of the expressway.

1.5 Unit Prices

The HDM-4 model first predicts the consumption of resources for each component of vehicle operating cost, and then multiplies the amounts by the appropriate unit prices, such as VND or US$ per liter of fuel and per tire. This converts consumption to a cost per kilometer. The total of costs for all components is the vehicle operating cost.

For the evaluation VOCs expressed as economic costs are required. Costs are expressed in financial terms when the unit prices used are market prices. They are expressed in economic terms when prices are net of taxes and subsidies, and if necessary further adjusted by the use of a shadow price so that they reflect more closely the resource cost of the item to the Vietnamese economy. In the HDM-4 based VOC model in RUCKS unit prices are required to value the following items:

� replacement vehicle � tires � fuel � lubricating oil � crew � maintenance labor � annual overhead � interest rate

With all VOC models it is necessary to review unit prices periodically and update them when significant changes occur. Unit prices applicable in 2007 were produced for the previous study carried out in mid-2007, which incorporated information from a number of other road studies in Viet Nam using HDM-4 that had been carried out around that time. These have been updated to mid-2009 levels.

(1) Vehicle Cost

Vehicle prices are important as they are used for determining the capital cost of vehicles, expressed in terms of both depreciation and interest, and are also used for calculating vehicle maintenance and repair costs, which are determined from an estimate of the proportion of a vehicle that needs to be replaced per km. A single vehicle model can be used to represent each vehicle type, but it is preferable to calculate an average price, based on the prices of a number of models, weighted by the volume of sales in the country. An estimate was made based on prices of the most popular models and a listing of the market leaders in 2008. It is difficult to obtain precise information on the structure of prices for vehicles in Viet Nam, and so identify how much of the selling price is the tax component, which should be excluded to derive economic costs. Frequent changes are made to the tax system.

Import duties are applied to vehicles and components for assembly. Rates vary according to the country of origin and whether vehicles are imported in kit form, that is as completely knocked down (CKD) units, or imported in fully built up (FBU) form. The duty on FBU vehicles varies between new and second-hand vehicles. (In practice the duty on second-hand vehicles is determined from an assumed vehicle price specified by the Ministry of Finance.) Import duty on cars and light vehicles was 90% until 2007, when it was reduced to 60% as part of Viet Nam’s entry into the World Trade Organisation (WTO). This led to a surge in imports of FBU vehicles and the rate was subsequently increased to 93%. For CKD imports there is no longer variation according to the amount of local content in the vehicles, and the rate of duty is

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generally 20-255. In the case of motorcycles, for which there is significant local production rather than assembly, there is no distinction between the rate of import duty for CKD and FBU imports.

The main difficulty in determining the import duty component of financial prices is that the proportions of the costs of imported components and of local components plus assembly are not known. The price of imported components and local assembly costs are usually regarded as commercially confidential, but some information has been obtained to indicate the general composition of costs sufficiently accurately for determining VOC input prices. The cost of local content, plus assembly costs and local overheads, has been assumed to be 30 percent of car and 4WD ex-factory prices, and 15 percent of bus and truck ex-factory prices.

There is a special consumption tax (SCT) applied to some vehicles. This is currently levied at a rate of 50% on cars and other vehicles with up to five seats. For vehicles with 6-15 seats the rate of SCT is 30%, and for those with 16-24 seats it is 15%. There is now no distinction between the rates for imported and locally assembled vehicles. No SCT is levied on motorcycles, large buses or trucks, with the exception of second-hand buses for which the rate is 50%.

In addition there is value added tax (VAT), which is levied at 10% on most vehicles, but at 5% on buses with more than 24 seats and trucks. VAT is levied on the final price, including all other taxes and duties.

Most light vehicles are assembled in Viet Nam in small-scale operations, although imports of FBU vehicles have become more significant in recent years. There is probably no economic price benefit in local assembly at present. In fact it is probable that the cost of an imported CKD kit is higher than the cost of importing a fully assembled vehicle, before the cost of local assembly is added. It is only the higher import duty, and until recently SCT, on fully-assembled vehicles that has encouraged manufacturers to assemble vehicles in Viet Nam.

Similarly, most motorcycles are assembled locally, but with a higher proportion of local components than other vehicles. Basically all components other than engines are locally made. In the case of larger buses and trucks there has been little local assembly and most have been imported, but recently local assembly has been increasing. These imports have been mostly of second-hand vehicles from Korea, with Hyundai the dominant make, but recently tax penalties on second-hand vehicles has meant that many are now imported as new vehicles.

Estimates of the 2009 financial and economic vehicle prices used in the Study are shown in Table A1.3.

Table A1.3 Vehicle Prices (US$)

Financial Price

Economic Price

Motor cycle 1,100 880Car 36,000 18,0004-wheel drive 125,000 40,000Minibus 38,000 22,000Small Bus 50,000 35,000Large Bus 75,000 64,000Pick up 32,000 26,000Light Truck 29,000 25,000Medium Truck 38,000 34,000Heavy Truck 75,000 69,000Articulated . Truck 85,000 78,000


When part of the current fleet for some vehicle types is composed of second-hand imports, it is difficult to derive appropriate parameters for VOC calculation using HDM-4, or similar models. These models calculate depreciation, maintenance and repair costs assuming new vehicle prices together with average vehicle ages and deterioration rates based on utilization starting from new. However, in order to reflect the situation in Viet Nam, an allowance for some second-hand prices have been used, together with a

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reduced vehicle life, to represent the time from importation to the end of the regular service life. In theory the vehicles will require more maintenance than those introduced into the fleet as new vehicles but HDM-4 tends to overestimate vehicle maintenance costs for trucks and buses when used with the default parameters, and so no adjustment was made

(2) Tire Price

The price of tires for each vehicle type is required to value tire consumption costs. In addition the cost of a set of tires is deducted from the economic vehicle price for the purpose of calculating parts consumption and capital cost.

Both imported and domestically produced tires are used in Viet Nam. Until recently only bias ply (or cross ply) tires were manufactured domestically, and all radial tires, which are the most commonly used type on cars and other light vehicles, were imported. The largest local tire manufacturer, the Southern Rubber Industry Company (CASUMINA), now produces radial tires for cars and trucks although they only have a small share of the market at present. Using information from tire distributors average tire prices have been estimated assuming a mix of imported and domestically produced tires.

VAT of 10% is charged on all tires. For tires manufactured in Viet Nam this is the only significant tax. In the case of imported tires there is also import duty. The rate charged depends on the type of tire, and the country of origin. Currently imported tires of the types used by conventional road vehicles are subject to import duty of 30% if from a Most Favoured Nation (MFN) country but only 10% if from an ASEAN country. For motorcycle tires the MFN rate is 50% with no concession for ASEAN countries. The import duty is calculated not from actual prices but from minimum prices specified by the Ministry of Finance according to the country of origin. Those imported from Japan are more expensive than those from Thailand and Indonesia, the two major sources of imported tires, which are both members of ASEAN. The prices of imported tires have been based on imports from these two countries.

The derivation of economic tire prices on this basis is shown in Table A1.4 with prices based on those quoted by distributors and manufacturers for typical tire sizes for each vehicle class.

Table A1.4 Tire Price Data

Domestic Imported Economic ($)

Size Price (VND) Size Price (VND) Dom. Import Ave.

Motorcycle 2.50x17/6PR 89,700 2.50x17 366,000 5.0 13.7 8.5Car 6.00x12/10PR 315,000 185/70 R14 1,180,000 17.7 50.9 47.64-W Drive 7.50x16/12PR 1,330,000 235/70 R16 2,604,000 74.6 112.4 108.6Minibus 7.00x16/14PR 947,200 185/R14 1,428,000 53.2 61.6 60.8Light Bus 7.50x16/16PR 1,074,480 215/70R 17.5 2,760,000 60.3 119.1 113.3Heavy Bus 10x20/16PR 2,331,000 10x20/16PR 3,068,000 130.8 132.4 131.6Pick-up 6.50x16/12PR 851,200 195x14 1,302,000 47.8 56.2 55.4Light Truck 7.50x16 1,280,000 825x16/16PR 1,904,000 71.8 82.2 77.0Med. Truck 9x20/16PR 1,995,000 910x20/16PR 2,820,000 112.0 121.7 116.8Hvy. Truck 10x20/16PR 2,304,000 10x20/16PR 3,272,500 129.3 141.3 135.3Artic. Truck 11x20/18PR 2,797,200 11x20/16PR 3,038,000 157.0 131.1 144.1


(3) Fuel and Lubricants Prices

Fuel costs are an important component of VOCs, but do not dominate total costs and so the price of fuel is not as critical in an appraisal as is sometimes thought.

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Retail fuel prices in Viet Nam were set by the Government until May 2007, and some control is still exercised. Current prices are approximately VND15,700 per liter for petrol and VND13,100 per liter for diesel fuel. Tax rates vary frequently, but are generally low in order to keep prices as low as possible in the face of high international prices.

The economic price of fuel should be based on international border prices, the export price for fuel producing countries and the import price for fuel importers. Viet Nam is a producer of crude oil and now has an oil refinery. The long delayed Dung Quat refinery in Quang Ngai Province went into production in February 2009. It has a capacity of 140,000 barrels per day (bbl/d), although production has been subject to disruption. Production is to be expanded and a second refinery Nghi Son is scheduled to go into production in 2013. Domestic demand is about 275,000 bbl/d, and rising significantly, and so imports of refined products continue to be required. Therefore, even though a large proportion of fuel products will be domestically produced during the evaluation period of the project, it is appropriate that the cost of imported refined fuel products should be used as the basis to establish economic prices. This is because the fuel savings arising from a transport project will have a marginal effect on total fuel consumption in Viet Nam, which will be reflected in the volume of imports of refined product. Thus, in economic terms the benefit of a saving in fuel consumption will be a reduction in the import of refined products. As in the case of most import fuel prices in the Asia-Pacific region, those for Viet Nam are closely related to the Singapore ex-refinery spot price.

Because the economic evaluation of projects is normally conducted on the basis of constant prices, that is without taking the impact of general price inflation into account, it is usual to calculate VOCs using current unit prices as indicators of future prices in real terms. Given the fluctuations in crude oil and fuel prices there is clearly a danger in selecting current fuel prices to indicate the value of fuel over an appraisal period. International fuel prices, which are always quoted in US dollars, follow closely the movements in crude oil prices, which fluctuate according to world fuel supply and demand conditions. As such they do not follow the same general trends in prices of other goods. Other input prices tend to be much more stable and all follow similar trends, and so do not change significantly in relation to each other. When calculating VOCs for transport project evaluations the fuel price should be an estimate of the average price over the appraisal period, typically 20 years or more, expressed in present-day dollars, rather than simply the current price, which may be affected by short-term factors.

During most of the 1990s crude oil prices were relatively stable, fluctuating between $15 and $20 per barrel, but fell rapidly in 2008, reaching a low of $9.8 per barrel. In the current decade prices have been more volatile. Prices fluctuated within the range $20-$40 per barrel until 2004. There was then a sustained increase, reflecting supply constraints and rising demand especially in China and India, and probably speculation. Prices peaked at over $140 per barrel in mid-2008, before falling rapidly to $40 by the end of the year, and then rising again to $70 in 2009.

The monthly average Singapore ex-refinery prices of diesel fuel and petrol over the 3½ -year period up to July 2009 are shown in Figure A1.1. Also shown are monthly average crude oil prices over the same period. (Crude oil prices are shown on the left axis and fuel prices on the right axis). The series are very closely related. It is the crude oil price that largely determines the prices of fuel products. Given fluctuations in crude oil prices there is clearly a danger in selecting current fuel prices to indicate the value of fuel over an evaluation period..

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30

50

70

90

110

130

150

US$

per

bar

rel

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

US

cent

s pe

r litr

e

Brent Crude Oil

Petrol

Diesel Fuel

Figure A1.1 Crude Oil and Singapore Fuel Export Prices Jan 2006-July 2009

There are no official forecasts of future prices, and few forecasts of prices more than a few weeks in the future are generally available. Recent forecasts for the medium-term, that is up to the end of 2010, vary widely; from a reduction to $50 per barrel or even lower, to maintaining current prices, and to returning to prices of $150 or more. In the absence of authoritative forecasts a crude oil price of $100 has been adopted for this Study. This is based on an assumption that prices will fall in real terms in the medium term, as demand is depressed by higher prices and economic slowdown, followed by an increase in the long-term as world demand continues to rise.

With a crude oil price of $100 per barrel the import prices for Viet Nam would be approximately $0.60 and $0.65 per liter for petrol and for diesel fuel respectively. Given the uncertainty about future oil prices these fuel prices are only indicative. This uncertainty is compounded by changes in the technology of vehicle engines and the introduction of bio fuels.

Many types of lubricants are used in Viet Nam, with a wide range of prices according to type, quality and whether they are bought in bulk or in small amounts. All are imported, with import duty of 20%. Market prices per liter range from VND16,000 to over VND40,000. However they are a minor component of operating cost and it is acceptable to use an approximate figure. An economic price of $2.0 per liter has been adopted for this Study.

(4) Interest Rate

HDM-4 requires an annual interest charge on the purchase of new vehicle. The charge is calculated by specifying an annual interest rate. Even if bank loans are not used for the purchase of vehicles it is still appropriate to include an interest charge. This is because in economic terms the interest cost relates to the economic cost of the capital resource tied up in owning the vehicle, that is, the opportunity cost, which is equivalent to income that would have been received if the capital had been invested elsewhere.

Current medium-term interest rates in Viet Nam are approximately 14% on an annual basis, but for economic analyses, as in this Study, the interest rate should be the same as the discount rate used, that is 12%. However, as mentioned above in discussion of vehicle capital costs, it is considered that this rate should be adjusted to compensate for the overestimation of the reduction in interest costs per km from speed increases that are calculated by the HDM-4 model. Therefore the interest rates used were; 2.4% in the case of cars, four-wheel drive vehicles and motorcycles, with 10% for buses and trucks.

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(5) Crew Costs

In Viet Nam most vehicles, including many cars, have a paid driver. In this study crew time has been applied to all vehicle types except motorcycles. Some motorcycles are operated on a commercial basis, but by an owner-driver rather than by a paid driver. The passenger time cost for motorcycles allows for the rider using the motorcycle commercially. Most larger vehicles also have one or two assistants in addition to the driver. In the case of privately owned buses the owner often travels on the bus to supervise operations.

The crew cost is derived from typical wages and allowances paid to drivers, and to assistants where appropriate. State owned enterprises generally pay lower wages than the private sector, but provide allowances in addition to the wages. In the private sector, and especially for longer journeys, wages are often paid on a per trip basis, rather than as a fixed wage per week or per month. Generally wages and allowances are higher for larger vehicles, although car drivers often receive wages that are as high as those of heavy truck and bus drivers. Typical wages and allowances for drivers of trucks and buses in the Hanoi area range from VND2.7 - 3.5 million per month, but can be significantly higher when drivers are paid on a trip basis. Total wage costs for assistants are approximately VND1 million per month, but bus conductors receive about VND1,600,000. Outside the Hanoi area wages are lower.

In HDM-4 the cost of the crew for vehicles is required in the form of the cost per hour for each vehicle type, and this is converted to a cost per km from the predicted vehicle speed.

The form of the model for crew hours is:

S)PP(CH

1001001000 �

�

where CH is the number of crew hours per 1,000 veh-km PP is the percentage of private trips S is the vehicle speed in km/h

Most vehicles in Viet Nam operate on a commercial basis, with no private trips involved. Because the model coverts the hourly cost to a cost per km from the predicted speed, all time savings from higher speeds are assumed to be used for additional trips if there is no private use of the vehicle. It is considered that this will result in an overestimate of the crew cost component of VOC savings when higher speeds are achieved. This applies even if crew wages are fixed on an hourly or monthly basis, as time savings are not fully converted to additional trips. However, a part of the total wage costs is derived from trip related allowances in some cases, and this overestimation will therefore be greater. This is because if higher speeds are involved and the time savings are used for additional trips, then there will be higher wage costs. However, the impact on overall VOC is small and no adjustment has been made to compensate for this.

Table A1.5 Crew Costs

Car 4-wheel Drive

Pick up & Minibus

Small & Large Bus Light Truck Other

Trucks

Driver's Wage & Allowances (VND/mth) 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000

Drivers per vehicle 0.4 0.7 1 1 1 1

Assistant's Wage 1,000,000 1,400,000 1,000,000 1,000,000

Assistants per vehicle 1 1.5 1 1

Crew Cost (VND/mth) 1,200,000 2,100,000 4,000,000 5,600,000 4,000,000 4,500,000

Hours/month 190 190 190 190 190 190

Crew Cost ($/hour) 0.39 0.68 1.30 1.82 1.30 1.46


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(6) Maintenance Labor

In the HDM-4 model the number of hours of labor required per km are determined according to vehicle and road characteristics. This is converted to a cost by applying an hourly wage cost for maintenance labor. The wage cost should include an allowance for workshop consumables and overheads as well as the basic wage. An average wage rate is difficult to determine in Viet Nam because of the different arrangements made by owners for vehicle maintenance. It appears that some vehicle maintenance is carried out by drivers during periods when vehicles are not being utilized, rather than in formal workshops by mechanics. As in the case of drivers’ wages, typical wages for mechanics are lower in rural areas than in Hanoi.

A wage rate of VND3 million per month has been used. With an exchange rate of VND 17,800 and an assumption of 190 hours work per month this is equal to $0.90 per hour. Applying a factor of 1.75 as an allowance for assistants and workshop overheads, the total economic maintenance labor cost is $1.55 per hour.

(7) Overheads

Overheads, or standing costs, include items such as depreciation of offices, salaries of administration staff, and insurance costs. They are difficult to incorporate in VOC calculations realistically, and usually are not included.

They can be considered as either a component of running costs or, probably more accurately, as an annual charge per vehicle. It is considered that overhead costs should not be included in VOC. It is not clear that administration costs per km would decrease significantly as a result of higher speeds. There will be some increased utilization of commercial vehicles in terms of annual km driven, but this may incur higher annual administration costs that would lessen the impact on cost per km. Similarly annual vehicle insurance costs may be expected to increase if more km are operated. Insurance costs are a proxy for accident costs, and these would be expected to increase in line with the number of km operated. Thus, although overhead costs are incurred by operators, significant benefits are not likely to be obtained from road improvements, and in producing VOC estimates for assessing road improvements it is preferable not to include them as a cost component.

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2. TIME COSTS

2.1 Passenger Time Costs

A time cost per vehicle can be included in HDM-4 to value time savings for vehicle passengers resulting from higher speeds on improved roads. These savings are in addition to the time value of the vehicle itself and crew costs for commercially operated vehicles. HDM-4 allows values per person per hour for both work and non-work time to be specified separately. These are combined with an estimate of the percentage of passenger trips that are worked related, and an average passenger load per vehicle, to produce a passenger time cost per vehicle hour. They can be included in the VOC component of RUCKS but have been applied separately to the vehicle hours calculated in the assignment model. The cost per km is calculated directly from the hourly cost and the predicted speed (travel time is simply the inverse of speed).

The estimation of the value of time should take into account information on the purpose of journeys, in particular whether journeys are being made for work purposes or not. Savings in time when journeys are related to work clearly have a value; if less time is spent traveling more time in the working day can be used for productive purposes, resulting in an increase the economic output of the country. The standard approach used in valuing such time in transport studies is that it is considered to be at least equal in value to average wage rates, or some other indicator of earnings. This is based on the assumption that, unless there is major distortion in the labor market, wage rates will reflect the economic value of work performed.

Non-working time savings do not increase national production but, as there is evidence that people are prepared to pay for such savings, they must be considered as increasing the welfare of passengers. In principle there is no reason why a monetary value should not be attached to the time spent on trips for social, educational and other non-work purposes, including purely leisure trips. However, although individuals value such time, and are willing to pay for it, whether society values such savings is questionable. The decision to value non-working time or not should reflect government policy. If it is to maximize GDP, then projects should be selected only on the basis of measurable increases in economic returns, and non-working travel time savings should be ignored. That is a zero value should be placed on non-working time. In this Study it was considered preferable to include non-working time, which is the standard approach used in such studies.

The value of non-working time is more difficult to quantify than working time. It is usually based on revealed preference (RP), that is by observing what people are prepared to pay in the form of tolls or higher fares to reduce their travel time, or on stated preference (SP), that is on what people say they would pay to reduce traveling time. Most of the research of this type has been carried out in high-income countries. This shows that there is a wide variation in the values people give to travel time savings outside working hours, but most values are in the range 25-50 percent of earnings. In some cases the values are more than 100 percent of working time. Marginal values of time may vary for the same individual, depending on the amount of time saved on each occasion and the activities for which the time saved is used. There is also evidence that factors such as comfort and convenience are relevant, with waiting time and time lost due to congestion valued more highly than general traveling time. Significant travel time savings will be obtained from this Project, and given the type of trips and the nature of the time savings involved, a relatively high valuation of non-working time is considered to be appropriate.

There are often difficulties in undertaking RP and SP surveys in developing countries. Where they have been attempted they often show inconsistent results, with differences between the results of RP and SP surveys in the same country, and completely different relationships between the values of time indicated by the surveys and income levels in different countries1. Such surveys were not attempted in this Study.

There are other difficulties in determining the value of travel time in the circumstances of this Study. In the rural areas through which the road passes for much of its length, western-type formal employment is almost non-existent, and people often make multipurpose trips, making it difficult to precisely define ‘working’ and ‘non-working’ time. If people are not formally employed, but are engaged in agriculture or self-employed, their time spent traveling for any purpose may be preventing them from performing their

1 “The Value of Time in Least Developed Countries” DFID Research No.R7785. Department for International Development, Final

Report, July 2002.

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normal work activities. Thus, although their trip is not work related, it may be reducing their working time and should be valued accordingly.

(1) Income Levels

It is difficult to determine appropriate income levels to use to value travel time in Viet Nam. It is possible to obtain the information directly from travelers during O-D surveys, but large samples are required and it is normally difficult to obtain this information from respondents at roadside interviews. It was not attempted in the surveys conducted in this Study, and secondary data on income levels, discussed below, were used. (Although information on incomes was not collected in the surveys, information on trip purpose, and numbers of passengers per vehicle, was collected during the O-D surveys. Some adjustments were made to the information relating to trip purpose to allow for the lack of distinction between journeys made in work time and journeys to/from work. The results are incorporated in Table A1.8 below.)

In Viet Nam information on average income per head from all forms of economic activity is available from extensive surveys. Such information is more useful than that relating only to wage rates, as a significant proportion of the working population is not engaged in paid employment. Household Living Standard Surveys (HLSS) are carried out very two years. The most recent HLSS for which results are available is that carried out in 2006. A summary of the income results from the 2006 survey is given in Table A1.6

Table A1.6 Average Income per capita per month (VND 000 at 2006 current prices)

Vietnam Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Quintile 5 Urban Rural

636.5 184.3 318.9 458.9 678.6 1,541.7 1,058.4 505.7

Red River Delta North East North

West

North Central Coast

South Central Coast

Central Highlands South East Mekong

River Delta

653.3 511.2 372.5 418.3 550.7 522.4 1,064.7 627.6

Source: Household Living Standard Survey 2006, General Statistics Office of Viet Nam

The data show that there are wide variations between rural and urban households, between regions, and especially between the Quintile 1 and Quintile 5 income groups (the lowest and highest 20% of households respectively).

Comparison with the 2004 Survey suggests the annual growth of incomes was almost 15 percent per year between 2004 and 2006, with similar rates for all quintile groups and areas. This is a high rate of growth but is almost identical to the annual growth in GDP per head at current prices reported by the General Statistics Office of Viet Nam (GSO) over the same period, which reflects both economic growth and inflation. If price increases are excluded the real increase was approximately 8 percent per year. Preliminary GDP data for 2008 suggest that the growth rate of GDP per head between 2006 and 2008 was 22 percent per year, with the increase in the rate of growth largely due to the high rate in inflation in 2007/08. Economic growth between 2008 and 2009 is expected to be about 6 percent in real terms, with inflation at 2 percent. These data suggest that 2009 income levels are of the order of 60 percent above 2006 levels in current price VND terms, and this increase has been applied to the 2006 income levels shown in Table A1.6 to produce estimates of income in 2009.

The income levels shown above are the average per capita incomes for all household members. They should be expressed per head of the working population when used as indicators of wage rates and the value of working time. Nationally 48 percent of the total population has been recorded as being economically active in recent years. Assuming that 50 percent of household members are economically active, their average incomes would be twice those shown, and this has been assumed to be the base for valuing time. The estimated hourly wage rates derived from the data shown in Table A1.6 are shown in Table A1.7 for the regions most relevant to this Study, assuming 180 working hours per month and VND17,800 per US$.

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Table A1.7 Estimated Average Hourly Earnings in 2009 (US$)

Vietnam Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Quintile 5 Urban Rural Red River Delta

North East

0.64 0.18 0.32 0.46 0.68 1.54 1.06 0.51 0.65 0.51


(2) Travel Time Estimates

In estimating travel time values a number of additional issues were considered. For example, it is probable that those people traveling will have incomes higher than the average for the whole population, especially those traveling during working time. Another issue considered was whether to value the non-working time of higher income groups, for example those living in the main urban centers or those traveling in cars, more highly than that of other road users, or of the population as a whole. For reasons of equity there is a case for giving the same value to all non-working time.

The regional variation in income levels was considered. The first 48 km of the Project alignment is in Hanoi and Vinh Phuc provinces, which are in the Red River Delta Region, but most of the length is in the provinces of Lao Cai, Yen Bai and Phu Tho, which are in the North East Region. The Red River Delta Region has income levels very close to the national average, but those of the North East Region are significantly below the national average and are the same as the national average for rural areas. The 2007 OD surveys show that the majority of the travelers in the corridor have a journey origin or destination in Hanoi, or one of the main urban centers of Vinh Phuc and Phu Tho, such as Vinh Yen, Viet Tri, and Phu Tho City. Because of this trip pattern, and the fact that wages of those traveling during working time would probably be higher than average, the estimated national average earnings per hour shown in Table A1.6 have been used as the base on which travel time values have been estimated, rather than using regional data.

It is normal to value car passenger time more highly than that of other road users, to reflect their higher incomes. Some previous studies in Viet Nam have given much higher time values for car passengers than other road users. In a 1996 study2 they were valued at 10 times those of motorcycle users, based on the relative purchase prices of cars and motorcycles. At present very few cars in Viet Nam are privately owned, the majority being owned by government agencies or companies. Accordingly income levels of car passengers should not be considered as being so different from other road users as vehicle prices might suggest, but they must be well above the average. For this Study it has been assumed that car and 4-wheel drive vehicle passengers are in the Quintile 5 group. Given the very high usage of motorcycles it would be expected that users would be generally representative of the whole population. Therefore both motorcycle and bus passenger time has been valued using average total income as the base.

Non-working time has been valued at 30 percent that of work time, with child passengers included in this category. This is a relatively high ratio to working time, but is considered appropriate because of the nature of the potential for large savings per person, which make the saving more valuable than the minimal savings achieved on short road projects.

A shadow wage rate of 0.55 was applied to unskilled rural wage rates in the Project. This was taken into account in the calculation of economic travel times for motorcycle and bus passengers, but not car and four-wheel drive vehicle passengers. There is evidence from the social surveys that the lowest income groups make very few journeys outside their immediate location. In addition the travel times were based not on wage rates, but on household income levels, which include income from self-employment and trading activities as well as formal wages. Therefore the shadow wage rate factor was applied to only 35 percent of total income. An adjusted shadow wage rate factor of 0.85 was applied to both work and non-work time.

The estimation of a value for passenger time costs per vehicle needs to take into account passenger loads, that is the average number of people in each vehicle type. This was derived from the OD survey 2 Viet Nam Urban Transport Management Study Final Report, April 1996, MVA Asia Limited

A1-17

results. For cars and 4-wheel drive vehicles the passenger numbers observed were reduced slightly to allow for a proportion of such vehicles having a paid driver. Although some motorcycles operate as taxis they are privately owned and it is appropriate to regard all time as passenger time. All freight vehicles and buses were assumed to have a paid crew.

The economic appraisal of projects is normally undertaken with costs valued at constant base-year levels, on the assumption that relative costs change at similar rates. An exception is sometimes made for passenger time values, which are assumed to increase in real terms over time; that is they increase faster than general price levels. This is to reflect projected increases in real income per head as a result of economic growth. Most standard appraisal models such as HDM-4 cannot incorporate an escalating unit value of time. Given that time savings are less tangible as economic benefits than other road user savings it was decided to take a conservative view, and not increase the base year unit values of time over the evaluation period.

The resulting passenger time values for vehicle types carrying passengers are shown in Table A1.8. No passenger time savings have been included for freight vehicles. These time values are lower than those used in the recent VITRANSS 2 Study3, and were not increased over time in line with forecast growth in GDP per capita to reflect a real increase in time values as sometimes applied to transport appraisals. They are therefore considered represent a conservative value of time values.

Table A1.8 2009 Passenger Travel Time Values

Motor- cycle Car 4-wheel

Drive Mini-bus Small Bus Large Bus

Passenger Time ($/hour): Work Time 0.64 1.54 1.54 0.64 0.64 0.64Non-work Time 0.19 0.46 0.46 0.19 0.19 0.19

Percentage Work Time 30 30 30 25 25 25Ave. Pass. Time Cost ($/hour) 0.32 0.79 0.79 0.30 0.30 0.30Shadow Wage Rate Adjustment 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85Economic Pass. Time Cost ($/hour) 0.28 0.79 0.79 0.26 0.26 0.26Passenger Occupancy* 1.5 2.3 2.5 10 19 35Total Pass. Time Cost ($/hour) 0.41 1.81 1.96 2.57 4.88 8.98Total Pass. Time Cost (VND/hour) 7,358 32,150 34,945 45,687 86,804 159,903

*0.4 of cars and 0.7 of 4-wheel drive vehicles assumed to have a paid driver in addition to passenger numbers. Source: Consultant’s estimates

2.2 Freight Time Costs

Reducing cargo delay costs can also be considered as a potential source of benefit. Freight in transit is capital and a reduction in travel times can therefore be translated into savings in inventory costs. Thus the saving in time can be valued by the price of capital, that is the rate of interest. However the value of most freight is not significant when converted to a cost per hour and is considered small enough to be ignored in the evaluation. It is possible that there are additional benefits from faster transit times, such as reduced spoilage and less need for stock inventories, but it is not likely that these would be significant even if they could be measured.

3 The Comprehensive Study on the Sustainable Development of Transport System in Vietnam (VITRANSS 2), Draft Final Report-

Main report, July 2009, Almec Corporation, Oriental Consultants Co. Ltd., Nippon Koei Co. Ltd.

A1-18

3. GENERATED TRAFFIC BENEFITS

The problem of producing a benefit by adding the generated traffic to the traffic flow in the network model can be solved by considering two other cases in addition to the “base case” and the “project case”.

The resulting four cases are: Road Network Traffic

Case 1 (Base Case) Without Expressway Without Generation

Case 2 With Expressway Without Generation

Case 3 (Project Case) With Expressway With Generation

Case 4 Without Expressway With Generation

The benefits are calculated from the total VOC and passenger time costs as follows.

Normal and Diverted Traffic = Case 1 – Case 2 Generated Traffic = 0.5*((Case 4 - Case 3) – (Case 1 – Case 2))

In the case of accident costs no distinction is made between those associated with normal or generated traffic. The accident cost saving is simply the total cost of accidents in the base case minus the cost of accidents in the with project case. In terms of the example above this is:

Accident Costs = Case 1 – Case 3

The method of calculating generated traffic benefits can best be illustrated by use of a simple example. Consider the two networks shown in Figure A1.2. The “base case” network is shown as Case 1, which consists of three towns, A, B and C that are connected by Road No. 5. The number of vehicle trips per day (vpd) is as follows;

6,000 between A and B 10,000 between B and C 12,000 between A and C

As shown in Case 1 there will be a total of 22,000 vpd along the section of Road No. 5 between A and B, with 18,000 vpd on the section between B and C. In Case 2 it is assumed that a new expressway, designated as Road No. 21, is constructed to provide a direct link between A and C. In this simple example it can be assumed that all the traffic traveling directly between A and C will divert to Road No. 21. The traffic flow on Road No. 21 will therefore be 12,000 vpd. The traffic flows on Road No. 5 will decrease accordingly; to 6,000 vpd between A and B and to 10,000 vpd between B and C.

A1-19

C

5

A

B

22,000

18,000

Case 1

C

5

21

A

B

12,000

10,000

6,000

Case 2

Figure A1.2 Network for Calculating Normal and Diverted Traffic Benefits

Benefits have been calculated using the following assumptions:

� the total length of Road 5 is 100km (50km from A to B and 50km from B to C) � the length of Road 21 is 80km � VOC/km on Road 5 is $0.5 � VOC/km on Road 21is $0.4.

The only benefit is that for the 12,000 vpd that divert from Road 5 to Road 21. The diverted traffic benefit is:

12,000 x ((100 x $0.5) – (80 x $0.4)) = $216,000

This can be calculated on a network-wide basis by deducting the total costs of Case 2 from the total costs of Case 1, as shown in Table A1.9. The difference between network costs of $1,000,000 and $784,000 is $216,000, the same as calculating the diversion benefit directly.

Table A1.9 Comparison of Example Network VOC Cases 1 and 2

Traffic Network VOC ($) Road Section km VOC/km($) Case 1 Case 2 Case 1 Case 2

5 A-B 50 0.5 22,000 10,000 550,000 250,000 5 B-C 50 0.5 18,000 6,000 450,000 150,000

21 A-C 80 0.4 12,000 - 384,000 Total 1,000,000 784,000

Source: Consultants

In a more realistic example there would also be benefits to normal traffic remaining on Road 5. This is because the reduction in traffic on this road as a result of the diversion to road 21 would be expected to reduce congestion, increasing speeds and probably lowering vehicle operating costs per km for the traffic that remains on the road. If this occurs it is taken into account by the procedure illustrated.

A1-20

If it is assumed that the shorter distance and lower cost/km of Road 21 generates additional traffic then this can be added to the network In this example it is assumed that an additional 3,000 vpd operate between A and C in the “project” case. Because Road 5 remains at the same standard as in the “base case” no generated traffic will use that road. The traffic flow will then be as shown as Case 3 in Figure A1.3. The calculation of generated traffic benefits must consider the costs that this traffic would have incurred in using the original “base case” network. The resulting total traffic flows, in which the total traffic flows that will occur in the “project” case (that is normal plus generated traffic) are assigned to the “base case” network, are shown as Case 4

C

5

21

A

B

C

5

A

B

25,000

15,000

10,000

6,000 21,000

Case 3 Case 4

Figure A1.3 Network for Calculating Generated Traffic Benefits

In this simple example generated traffic benefits can be calculated conventionally. The volume of the generated traffic is 3,000. In the "project case" this generated traffic travels 80km on Road 21 at a cost of $0.4 per vehicle km. On the “base case” network it would have traveled 100km on Road 5 at a cost of $0.5 per vehicle km. The respective total costs are therefore:

Base case 3,000 * 100 * $0.5 = $150,000. Project Case 3,000 * 80 * $0.4 = $ 96,000

Applying the convention that generated benefits are half the value of normal traffic benefits, the benefit to generated traffic is therefore:

($150,000 - $96,000) /2 = $27,000

It would be possible to calculate the benefits to this generated traffic by assigning generated traffic alone, that is without any normal traffic, to the “base case” and “project” networks. Then the same procedure as for normal and diverted traffic, that is by comparing Case 1 and Case 2, could be used. However, the assignments require that full traffic flow is included, so that speed/flow relationships are applied correctly. In a realistic example generated traffic would not only use the new expressway; it would use other roads in the network to gain access to the expressway from its origin, and from the exit point from the expressway to its final destination. Where these other roads in the network are carrying high volumes of traffic even a small amount of additional generated traffic can impose significant costs. Although the impact on each vehicle in the traffic flow may not be significant, the total effect will be if many vehicles are affected. Therefore it is necessary to calculate generated traffic benefits on a network-wide basis from the assignment of total traffic flows as in Case 3 and Case 4.

A1-21

The network-wide costs are calculated as shown in Table A1.10. If the calculation:

Generated Traffic Benefits = 0.5*((Case 4 - Case 3) – (Case 1 – Case 2))

is applied to these network-wide costs the result is the same as shown above when calculating the generated traffic diversion benefit directly. That is:

0.5*((1,150,000 – 8880,000) – (1,000,000 – 784,000)) = $27,000

Table A1.10 Comparison of Example Network VOC Cases 1, 2, 3 and 4

Traffic Network VOC ($) Road Section km VOC/km

($) Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4

5 A-B 50 0.5 22,000 10,000 10,000 25,000 550,000 250,000 250,000 625,000

5 B-C 50 0.5 18,000 6,000 6,000 21,000 450,000 150,000 150,000 525,000

21 A-C 80 0.4 - 12,000 15,000 - - 384,00 480,000 -

Total 1,000,000 784,000 880,000 1,150,000

Source: Consultants

Such a procedure, calculating generated traffic from network-wide operating costs, is considered to be the only practical method for all but very simple networks. It can also be seen that the method takes into account the impact that generated traffic has on other road users. Generated traffic itself will always have positive road user cost savings. However, these may be small, and the addition of generated traffic ALWAYS slows down existing traffic on any link in the network on which it operates. Therefore including generated traffic must always reduce time savings benefits to existing traffic, and may well reduce VOC benefits as VOCs increase at lower speeds. The above procedure determines not simply the gross benefit to generated traffic, but the benefit net of the impact of generated traffic on existing traffic. The overall impact can be negative, especially when the additional generated traffic operates on a network where some roads are congested.

APPENDIX 2 WILLINGNESS-TO-PAY SURVEY

SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF VIETNAM Vietnam Expressway Corporation (VEC)

Small Technical Assistance for Noi Bai - Lao Cai Highway Project

WILLINGNESS-TO-PAY SURVEY

ORIENTAL CONSULTANTS

November 2009

ORICONSUL

Table of Contents

Page

1. Project Description............................................................................................................. A2-1

2. Existing transport conditions on Noi Bai- Lao Cai corridor ................................................. A2-1

3. Implementation of Willingness to pay Survey .................................................................... A2-1 3.1 Introduction................................................................................................................. A2-1 3.2 Willingness to pay Locations ...................................................................................... A2-2 3.3 Method........................................................................................................................ A2-2 3.4 Implementation ........................................................................................................... A2-2 3.5 Results........................................................................................................................ A2-2

APPENDIX A: PHOTOGRAPHS····························································································· A2-7

APPENDIX B: WILLINGNESS TO PAY SURVEY

1. Station No.1 – Phu Tho Province ··············································································· A2-8

2. Station No.2 – Yen Bai Province ················································································ A2-47

3. Station No.3 – Lao Cai Province················································································· A2-68

Small Technical Assistance for Noi Bai - Lao Cai Highway Project .

Willingness-to-pay Survey Report Oriental Consultants

1. Project Description

Kun Ming- Hai Phong Transport Corridor is a project under Expanded Greater Mekong Sub-region Cooperation Program, aiming at promoting the relationship and cooperation among 6 countries sharing Mekong River including Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar and Van Nam (China). In a conference, 6 countries have agreed Kun Ming- Hai Phong Transport Corridor (from Lao Cai to Hai Phong in Vietnam) with the length of 443km to be the first priority road alignment which is closely linked to large and potential market of China and to be negotiated by the Vietnamese Government for inclusion into the Trans-Asia road system.

Noi Bai-Lao CaiHighway Project involves the construction of a new highway of approximately 244 km length. The highway will start near the Noi Bai International Airport in the District of Soc Son, Ha Noi City, and will traverse the provinces of Vinh Phuc, Phu Tho, Yen Bai and Lao Cai towards the Chinese border in the north. A total of 18 districts and 72 communes will be traversed by the highway which is envisaged to be operational by 2012. The Government of Viet Nam (GOV) plans to carry out the construction of the highway in two phases. During the first phase, which is the scope of this Project, 4 lanes (i.e., 2 lanes each way) will be constructed from Noi Bai to Yen Bai, while 2 lanes (i.e., 1 lane each way) will be constructed from Yen Bai to Lao Cai. In future, Government plans to widen the Noi Bai-Yen Bai Section into 6 lanes, and the Yen Bai-Lao Cai Section into 4 lanes.

Noi Bai- Lao Cai highway when completed will help to reduce travel time and cost, and more importantly to increase traffic safety in view of the alarming statistics on traffic casualties and fatalities along the current routes to Lao Cai.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has decided to assign Orient Consultant (OC to) undertake Small Technical Assistance for Noi Bai - Lao Cai Highway Project (the Project).

The general objective of the Willingness-to-pay survey is to obtain the baseline information about toll fee to be adopted along the project route.

2. Existing transport conditions on Noi Bai- Lao Cai corridor

Noi Bai - Lao Cai transport route includes NR-2 from Noi Bai – Vinh Yen - Viet Tri – Phong Chau - Doan Hung and NR-70 from Doan Hung to Lao Cai, and additionally, NR-32, NR-32C, NR 4E, NR37, NR279 running in parralell and also through Vinh Phuc, Phu Tho, Viet Tri and Lao Cai.

3. Implementation of Willingness to pay Survey

3.1 Introduction

The expectedly adopted toll fees will be the main source of refund to the Investor when the project route is open to traffic. The toll rates should be at a acceptable level to the road users so as to attract traffic to use the project route. If the toll rates are set too high the number of vehicles using the highway will certainly be reduced. In addition, this project is funded in the mode of ‘getting loans - paying debts’, so the toll rates must ensure the recovery of investment capital and a reasonable amount of profits for the investor.

In consideration of the construction purposes of the highway and actual conditions of the research area and with reference to the toll rates adopted for other roads in the project area, the adjustment in toll rates is expected to bring about the corresponsive revenues. The toll rates will be determined on a distance basis in consideration of the refund to the investor.

According to the Circular No. 90/2004/TT-BTC of September 7, 2004, Guiding the Regime of Road Toll Collection, Payment, Management and Use, MOF”, the level of toll rates applicable to roads invested by the State with loan capital and subject to toll collection for capital recovery shall not exceed twice the toll rates applicable to roads with tolls for operation and maintenance revenue only.

A2-1



Currently toll fees on section of Noi Bai – Lao Cai section are collected by 2 toll gates Vinh Yen station (BOT Project) and Viet Tri Toll gate (under VRA management by), the toll rates for a passenger car are charged at VND 15,000 for Vinh Yen station (BOT Project) and VND 10,000 for Viet Tri one.

At this stage of study, a Willingness to pay survey was carried out to recommend the adopted toll rates for the close toll collection system for this highway and to further verify the results of the previous survey which was conducted during the detailed design phase of the project.

After having the updated willingness to pay survey data, the toll rates figured out in the detailed design phase shall be revised accordingly.

The survey was conducted to investigate the road users’ attitude and particular attention to affordable toll fee adopted for Noi Bai-Lao Cai highway. The results of the survey can be used by transport economists, transport planners and policy makers for their own analysis.

The willingness to pay survey has been has been carried out by APECO from 1 September 2009 to 18 September 2009 together with a traffic survey.

3.2 Willingness to pay Locations

The study team conducted willingness to pay survey at 3 locations Phu Tho Provincial, Yen Bai Provincial and Lao Cai Provincial. Distribution of the locations is shown in Table A2.1.

Table A2.1 Willingness to pay locations

Location Location Zone

1 Viet Tri Town Phu Tho

2 Yen Bai City Yen Bai

3 Lao Cai City Lao Cai

3.3 Method

3.3.1 Method adoption

The direct interview method was adopted for the survey. Some questionnaires were designed and used for interview purpose. During interview process a full explanation of the survey was given to the interviewees in order to get reliable results.

3.3.2 Questionnaire Design

The questionnaires was prepared in three types separately for interviewing operator and driver:

� Truck Operator Interview; � Bus Operator Interview; � Private Vehicle Driver/Owner Interview.

3.4 Implementation

The three locations in Lao Cai, Yen Bai and Phu Tho Provinces were selected for the survey.

For each location, 2 staffs under the supervision of 1 team leader were assigned for interviwing work throughout the survey duration.

3.5 Results

The results of the survey are tabulated in the summary table below.

A2-2


Small Technical Assistance for Noi Bai - Lao Cai Highway Project

W

illin

gnes

s to

pay

loca

tions

Surv

ey L

ocat

ion

A2-3



Private Vehicle Operator Interview

i ii iii iv 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Return journey length to Hanoi (hrs/days) Toll fee payment

No.

Name of Operator

Owner

Paid

Driver

Vehicle Types

Trips to Hanoi

Routes

Trip purpose to

Hanoi

Types of work Travel

time Length of

stay Total return

length

Advantages of project

Toll fee

Vehicle types

30,000 40,000 60,000

1 29U-4413 Gov. company Yes 7 2/month NH2, NH32 work Construction 2.25 Not defined 2.25 Yes yes yes maybe 2 30L-5294 Private No 4 2/month NH2, NH32 work Computer

software 2 Not defined 2 Yes yes yes maybe

3 21H-3545 Private No 4 Not often NH2, NH32 family - 2 Not defined 2 Yes yes yes no 4 30S-4163 Gov. company Yes 7 2/month NH2, NH32 business business 2.25 Not defined 2.25 Yes yes yes no answer5 30K-4155 Gov. company Yes 7 2/week NH2, NH32 business - 2.5 4 2.5 Yes yes yes no answer6 99U-1648 Gov. company No 7 No NH2, NH32 business - 2 Not defined - Yes no answer no

answer maybe

7 88H-8844 Private - 4 - NH2, NH32 work - 2 Not defined - - no answer no answer

maybe

8 30N-1058 - - 4 - NH2, NH32 work - 2 Not defined 2 - yes yes maybe 9 29Y-1863 Gov. company Yes 7 Not often NH32 work - 2 - - - no answer yes maybe

10 30H-1652 - Yes 5 1/month NH2 work - 2.5 1 - - no answer no answer

maybe

VIET

TR

I

11 29Z-3762 Gov. company Yes 7 No - recreation - 2 - - Yes no answer no answer

maybe

75,000 100,000 150,000 12 21H-5018 Gov. company No 4 Not often - work Telecom 4 2 4 Yes maybe maybe no answer13 22L-2299 Private - - - NH70, NH32C recreation - 4.5 2 4 Yes no answer yes yes 14 30K-4155 Gov. company Yes 7 - NH70, NH32C business Construction 4-5 2 4 Yes yes yes no answer15 30W-8846 Private No 7 Not often NH32C family - 4.5 3 4.5 Yes yes maybe no 16 29Y-4152 Gov. company Yes 7 No - business - 4.5 2 4 - yes yes no answer17 29K-0074 Gov. company Yes 4 - NH2, NH32C business - 4 - 4 Yes yes yes no

YEN

BA

I

18 33M-4911 Private No 4 - - business passenger carrier - - - - no answer no answer

no answer

150,000 200,000 300,000 19 24N-4112 Gov. company Yes 4 1/month NH70 business - 8-10 No 24 Yes 100,000 4 seats yes no

answer no answer

20 Binh Gov. company Yes 5 4-5/2 mths NH70 work business 8-10 1-2 days 1-2 days Yes 100,000 5 seats yes no answer

no answer

21 Le Q. Thinh Private No 5 2/month NH70, NH32C work Private business 8-10 10 1 day Yes 100,000 5 seats yes no answer

no answer

22 24N-3883 Gov. company - - - NH70 business passenger carrier 8 1 day 2 days Yes no answer maybe no answer23 24N-4113 Gov. company Yes 5 1/month - business - 8-11 1 hrs 20 hrs Yes yes no

answer no answer

24 24N-1712 Private No 7 - - family - 10 1 day 10 hrs - 100,000 7 seats no answer maybe no answer25 24N-4245 Private No 7 1/month NH70 business business 9-10 1 day 2 days - no answer yes no answer26 30F-6114 Gov. company Yes 5 1/month NH32C business business 8-10 24 hrs 2 days - yes no

answer no answer

27 24N-2671 Private No 5 2-3/month NH70 family - 10 1 day 2-3 days - no answer maybe no answer28 29X-7378 Private Yes 7 1-3/month - business company business 8-10 12 hrs 24 hrs - yes no

answer no answer

29 24N-5216 Private No 5 1/month - business business 8-9 1-2 days 8-9 hrs Yes no answer yes no answer30 24N-3254 Gov. company Yes 5 1-3/month - work business 8-10 1 day 8-10 hrs Yes 100-

150,000 5 seats yes no

answer no answer

31 34L-1285 Private No 5 1/month NH32C work Construction 9 2-3 days 9 - 100,000 5 seats yes no answer

no answer

32 29Y-9604 Private No 7 1/month NH32C work - 8-10 1 day 10 - don't know

no answer yes no answer

LAO

CA

I

33 24N-4120 Gov. company Yes 7 1/month NH32C work textile, electric 9-11 1 day 9-11 - don't know

no answer yes no answer

A2-4



Bus Operator Interview

i 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Pr. No. Name of Operator

No. of buses

operated Bus type

to Hanoi route

Trips /week Routes One-way fares to Hanoi Length of journey to Hanoi (hrs or days) Limited/ Non-

limited stop

Advantages of

the project

Toll fee Vehicle type

Acceptable level

Toll fee payment Truck types

Type Min Max Bus type Travel

time Waiting

time Return time

1 21H-4453 1 Small Bus (20-30seats) AC - - NH2, NH32

AC 40,000 50,000 Minibus 2 hrs 15' 4 hrs 2 hrs 15' Intermediate - 60,000 Small Bus Yes 60,000 Small Bus

Yes 80,000 Small Bus 2 30K-8846 6 Small Bus (20-30seats) AC Yes - NH2,

NH32 AC 45,000 50,000 Small Bus 2 hrs 30' 4 hrs 2 hrs 30' Limited stop Yes 60,000 Small Bus Yes 60,000 Small Bus

Yes 80,000 Small Bus 3 21H-2477 1 Small Bus (20-30seats) AC - - NH2,

NH32 AC 40,000 - Small Bus 2 hrs 30' 4 hrs 2 hrs 30' Limited stop Yes 75-

100,000 Small Bus Yes 60,000 Small Bus

Yes 80,000 Small Bus 4 88H-8974 1 Small Bus (20-30seats) AC - - NH2,

NH32 AC 50,000 - Small Bus 2 hrs 15' 4 hrs 2 hrs 15' Intermediate Yes 75-

100,000 Small Bus Maybe 60,000 Small Bus

Maybe 80,000 Small Bus 5 30L-3248 2 Small Bus (20-30seats) AC Yes - NH2,

NH32 AC 45,000 55,000 Small Bus 2 hrs 30' 2 hrs 2 hrs 30' Intermediate Yes 80-

100,000 Small Bus Yes 60,000 Small Bus

Yes 80,000 Small Bus 6 19L-3330 2 Small Bus (20-30seats) AC Yes - Nh2,

NH32 AC 70,000 100,000 Minibus 8 hrs - - - - 100,000 Minibus Yes 60,000 Small Bus

Non AC

60,000 80,000 200,000 Small Bus Yes 80,000 Small Bus

300,000 Large Bus Maybe 120,000 Small Bus 7 20L-3919 1 Large Bus (>30seats) AC - - NH2,

NH32 AC 45,000 50,000 Minibus 3 hrs 30' 2 hrs 3 hrs Intermediate - 100,000 Large Bus Yes 75,000 Large Bus

Yes 100,000 Large Bus Maybe 150,000 Large Bus 8 30L-5210 3 Small Bus (20-30seats) Non AC - - NH2 AC 45,000 55,000 Large Bus 2 hrs 2 hrs - - - 60,000 Large Bus Yes 75,000 Large Bus

Yes 100,000 Large Bus

9 4 Minibus AC - - NH2, NH32

AC 40,000 Minibus 2 hrs 1 hr - Limited stop - 80-100,000

Minibus Maybe 40,000 Minibus

Truong Dinh Long

60,000 Minibus

VIET

TR

I

10 30N-8788 1 Small Bus (20-30seats) AC - 2-4 NH2, NH32

AC 45,000 55,00 Small Bus 2 hrs 2 hrs - Limited stop Yes 60,000 Small Bus Maybe 120,000 Small Bus

11 21H-3719 1 Small Bus (20-30seats) AC Yes - NH70 AC 70,000 - Small Bus 4 hrs 0.5 hrs 4 hrs - - - - Maybe 150,000 Small Bus

12 20P-6335 1 Large Bus (>30seats) AC - - NH70 AC 70,000 - Large Bus 4 hrs - - - - 180,000 Large Bus Maybe 200,000 Large Bus

Maybe 250,000 Large Bus

13 21H-3719 1 Large Bus (>30seats) AC - - NH32 AC 40,000 - Large Bus 4 hrs 2 hrs 4 hrs - - 280-300,000

Large Bus Yes 200,000 Large Bus

Non AC

35,000 - Yes 250,000 Large Bus

14 30P-6649 1 Large Bus (>30seats) AC - - NH70 AC 70,000 - Large Bus 4 hrs 15' 4 hrs - - - - Maybe 150,000 Small Bus

15 21H-2308 4 Large Bus (>30seats) Non AC - - NH2, Nh32

AC 45,000 50,000 Minibus 4 hrs 30' 6-8 hrs 4 hrs 30' Limited stop - 160,000 Large Bus Yes 200,000 Large Bus

Yes 250,000 Large Bus

No 375,000 Large Bus

16 33M-1027 1 Small Bus (20-30seats) AC Yes - NH2, NH32

AC 40,000 50,000 Minibus 3 hrs 30' - 3 hrs 30' Intermediate Yes 150,000 Small Bus Maybe 200,000 Large Bus

Non AC

30,000 40,000 200,000 Large Bus

17 21H-3089 1 Small Bus (20-30seats) AC - - NH2, NH32

AC 40,000 Small Bus 4 hrs - - - - - - No 150,000 Small Bus

YEN

BA

I

Non AC

30,000 No 200,000 Small Bus

A2-5



i 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Pr. No. Name of Operator

No. of buses

operated Bus type

to Hanoi route

Trips /week Routes One-way fares to Hanoi Length of journey to Hanoi (hrs or days) Limited/ Non-

limited stop

Advantages of

the project

Toll fee Vehicle type

Acceptable level

Toll fee payment Truck types

Type Min Max Bus type Travel

time Waiting

time Return time

18 12 Minibus AC Yes - NH70 AC 6,000,000 7,000,000 Minibus 10 hrs - 24 hrs Limited stop - 100,000 Minibus Yes 150,000 Minibus 4 Small Bus (20-30seats) AC Yes - NH70 AC 6,000,000 Small Bus 10 hrs - 24 hrs Limited stop - 200,000 Small Bus Yes 300,000 Small Bus

Cuong Huong Com.

3 Large Bus (>30seats) AC Yes - NH70 AC 8,000,000 Large Bus 10 hrs - 24 hrs Limited stop - 250,000 Large Bus Yes 375,000 Large Bus 19 24N-0890 10 Minibus AC - - NH70 120-

140,000- Minibus 8-10 hrs 12 hrs 24 hrs - Yes 100,000 Minibus Yes 150,000 Minibus

2 Small Bus (20-30seats) AC - - NH70 120,000 - 150-200,000

Small Bus Yes 300,000 Small Bus

20 29Y-9704 9 Minibus AC Yes - NH70 AC 150,000 - Minibus 10 hrs 12 hrs 20 hrs Limited stop Yes 100,000 Minibus Yes 150,000 Minibus

4 Small Bus (20-30seats) AC Yes - NH70 AC 120,000 - Small Bus 10-11 hrs

24 hrs 24 hrs 180,000 Small Bus Yes 300,000 Small Bus

21 24N-5162 1 Small Bus (20-30seats) AC Yes - - AC - 200,000 Small Bus 8 hrs - - Limited stop Yes 200,000 Small Bus Yes 200,000 Minibus

22 5 Minibus AC - - NH70 AC 6-7,000,000

contract Minibus 10-12 hrs

1-5 hrs 20-24 hrs Intermediate - 80-100,000

Minibus Yes 150,000 Minibus

Sapa Transport

Comp.

23 20 Minibus Non AC Yes - NH70 AC 6,000,000 contract Minibus 10-12 hrs

3 days 4 days Limited stop Yes 100,000 Minibus Yes 150,000 Minibus

10 Small Bus (20-30seats) AC Yes - NH70 AC 7,000,000 contract Small Bus 10-12 hrs

3 days 4 days 200,000 Small Bus Yes 300,000 Small Bus

Hai Van Comp.

40 Large Bus (>30seats) AC Yes - NH70 AC 12,000,000 contract Large Bus 10-12 hrs

3 days 4 days 300,000 Large Bus Yes 375,000 Large Bus

24 1 Small Bus (20-30seats) AC Yes - NH70 AC 100,000 150,000 Small Bus 10 hrs 12 hrs 10 hrs Limited stop Yes 150-200,000

Small Bus Maybe 300,000 Small Bus

A. Chien 0165 783 438

LAO

CA

I

25 24N-5162 4 Minibus AC Yes - - AC 150,000 - Minibus 10-11 hrs

10-12 hrs

24 hrs - - 100,000 Minibus Maybe 150,000 Minibus

A2-6



APPENDIX A: PHOTOGRAPHIC FOR WILLINGNESS TO PAY SURVEY

A2-7



APPENDIX B:

WILLINGNESS TO PAY SURVEY Station No.1 – Phu Tho Province

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WILLINGNESS TO PAY SURVEY Station No.2 – Yen Bai Province

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WILLINGNESS TO PAY SURVEY Station No.3 – Lao Cai Province

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APPENDIX 3 Toll Rate System

Table of Contents Page

1. Vehicle Classification.......................................................................................................... A3-1

2. Toll Rate System in Indonesia............................................................................................ A3-3

3. Toll Rate System in Malaysia ............................................................................................. A3-8

4. Toll Rate System in Japan.................................................................................................. A3-11

5. Toll Rate System in Korea (Seoul-Chuncheon expressway) ............................................. A3-12

6. Toll Rate System in Thailand.............................................................................................. A3-13

7. Toll Rate System in China .................................................................................................. A3-13

A3-1

1. Vehicle Classification

In Vietnam, specific toll amount for each vehicle is based on the vehicle classification shown in the circular No.90/2004/TT-BTC of MOF. The vehicle classification is defined by the combination of the number of seats and the loading capacity focusing on the benefits provided by road use as below.

Table A3.1 Vehicle Class in Vietnam

Vehicle Class Definition 1 Two wheelers, three wheelers, mopeds and the like 2 Lambretta, rudimentary trucks, tractors 3

Cars with seats of 12 or less, trucks with a capacity less than 2 tons, mass transit buses

4 Cars seats between 12 and 30, trucks with a capacity between 2 and 4 tons 5 Cars with seats of 30 or more, trucks with a capacity between 4 and 10 tons 6 Trucks with a capacity between 10 and 18 tons, 20ft-container lorries

Ordinary Vehicle

7 Trucks with a capacity of 18 tons or more, 40ft-container lorries 1 Military cars Defense Ministry

Vehicle 2 Military trucks 1 Cars with seats less than 7 2 Cars with seats of 7 or more 3 Specialized automobiles 4 Trucks

Police Force Vehicle

5 Two wheelers, three wheelers

Discussion on the toll rate system in the Master Plan will be based on this classification. This classification can be carried out automatically by appropriate license plate system and using advanced license plate scanner. The same method can be applied for carrying out other vehicle classifications exemplified in the followings.

(1) Vehicle Class in Indonesia

In Indonesia, vehicle classification by the number of axles is adopted for the toll rate system focusing on the damage by the trucks to the road structure. This classification can be carried out automatically by using simple sensors.

Table A3.2 Vehicle Class in Indonesia

Vehicle Class Definition

Class I Sedan, Jeep, Pickup truck, Small truck and Bus

Class II Truck with 2 axles

Class III Truck with 3 axles

Class IV Truck with 4 axles

Class V Truck with 5 or more axles

(2) Vehicle Class in Malaysia

In Malaysia, vehicle classification by the number of axles is adopted for the toll rate system focusing on the damage by the vehicles to the road structure. In addition, lower toll rates are prepared for the taxis and the buses highly public. This classification can be carried out automatically by using simple sensors.

A3-2

Table A3.3 Vehicle Class in Malaysia


Class 0 Motorcycles, bicycles or vehicles with 2 or less wheels

Class 1 Vehicles with 2 axles and 3 or 4 wheels excluding taxis

Class 2 Vehicles with 2 axles and 5 or 6 wheels excluding buses

Class 3 Vehicles with 3 or more axles

Class 4 Taxis

Class 5 Buses

(3) Vehicle Class in Japan

In Japan, vehicle classification by the combination of the number of axles, the vehicle weight and the vehicle dimension is adopted for the toll rate system focusing on the damage by the vehicles to the road structure and on the occupancy on the road. This classification can be carried out automatically by appropriate license plate system and using many kinds of sensors including advanced license plate scanner.

Table A3.4 Vehicle Class in Japan


Light Vehicle - Light vehicle - Motorcycle

Ordinary Vehicle - Small size vehicle (excluding light vehicle and motorcycle) - Sedan - Light tractor with trailer (which has an axle)

Medium Vehicle

- Small bus with seats of 11 to 29 and a weight less than 8 tons - Truck with a weight less than 8 ton and axles of 3 or less - Light tractor with trailer (which has 2 or more axles) - Tractor with trailer (which has an axles)

Large Vehicle

- Bus with seats of 30 or more or a weight more than 8 tons, and a length less than 9 m

- Truck with a weight of 8 to 25 tons and axles of 3 or less - Tractor with trailer (which has 2 or more axles) - Large tractor with trailer (which has an axles)

Extra Large Vehicle

- Bus with sheets of 30 or more, a weight more than 8 tons, and a length more than 9 m

- Truck with axles of 4 or more - Large tractor with trailer (which has 2 or more axles) - Large construction vehicle

A3-3

2. Toll Rate System in Indonesia

1) Class I - Sedan, Jeep, Pickup truck, Small truck and Bus

2) Class II - Truck with 2 axles

3) Class III - Truck with 3 axles

4) Class IV - Truck with 4 axles

5) Class V - Truck with 5 or more axles

Toll rate: Toll Road Operation

Toll Belawan - Medan - Tanjung Morawa

A3-4

Toll Rate Belawan - Medan - Tanjung Morawa

A3-5

Toll Surabaya Gresik and Surabaya – Gempol

Toll Rate Surabaya – Gempol

A3-6

Toll Rate Surabaya – Gresik

A3-7

Tol Semarang

Toll Rate Semarang

A3-8

3. Toll Rate System in Malaysia

1) Class 0 - Motorcycles, bicycles or vehicles with 2 or less wheels

2) Class 1 - Vehicles with 2 axles and 3 or 4 wheels excluding taxis

3) Class 2 - Vehicles with 2 axles and 5 or 6 wheels excluding buses

4) Class 3 - Vehicles with 3 or more axles

5) Class 4 - Taxis

6) Class 5 - Buses

Toll rate: Open toll systems Open toll systems require expressway users to pay a fixed toll charge at the toll plaza based on the class of vehicle used. The user is free to exit the expressway at any junction or to continue on to the next toll plaza or toll collection point. Semi urban highways with numerous junctions or intersections serving short distance trips usually employ an open toll system. On the North-South Expressway, this system is used at the following locations:

Bukit Kayu Hitam toll plaza

Class Type of vehiclesNormal prices (inMalaysian Ringgit(RM))

*Daily off-peak hourtravel (in MalaysianRinggit (RM)

* Off-peak hour travelduring festive season(in Malaysian Ringgit(RM)

0 Motorcycles, bicycles or vehicles with 2 orless wheels Free NIL NIL

1 Vehicles with 2 axles and 3 or 4 wheelsexcluding taxis RM3.30

2 Vehicles with 2 axles and 5 or 6 wheelsexcluding buses RM4.80 NIL NIL

3 Vehicles with 3 or more axles RM6.50 NIL NIL

4 Taxis RM1.50 NIL NIL

5 Buses RM2.40 NIL NIL

A3-9

Jitra toll plaza










Kempas toll plaza










(* Toll payments between 12:00 am and 7:00 am)

Closed toll systems

Closed toll systems require expressway users to pay toll charges based on the distance travelled and the class of vehicle used. Drivers collect a transit ticket at the toll plaza on entering the expressway.

The ticket, which is surrendered at the exit toll plaza, is used to calculate the amount of toll payable based on the distance between the point of entry and exit.

Closed toll systems are well suited to inter-urban highways on which long distance traffic volumes are high. About 786 km of the North-South Expressway, including the 35 km stretch of the New Klang Valley Expressway, are operated on a closed toll system for this reason.

A3-10

Hutan Kampung - Sungai Dua toll plaza

Class 1 Exit Plaza HKG ASU ASS PDG GRN SPU SPS BRT SGD

Hutan Kampung 0.4 1.4 3.9 5.8 8.8 10.1 11.6 13

Alor Star (North) 0.4 1.2 3.1 5.6 8 9.3 10.8 12.2

Alor Star (South) 1.4 1.2 2.4 4.8 7.2 8.5 10.1 11.4

Pendang 3.9 3.1 2.4 3 5.2 6.5 8 9.4

Gurun 5.8 5.6 4.8 3 2.6 3.8 5.4 6.7

Sungai Petani (North) 8.8 8 7.2 5.2 2.6 1.6 3.1 4.5

Sungai Petani (South) 10.1 9.3 8.5 6.5 3.8 1.6 2.2 3.6

Bertam 11.6 10.8 10.1 8 5.4 3.1 2.2 1.6

Sungai Dua 13 12.2 11.4 9.4 6.7 4.5 3.6 1.6

Juru - Skudai toll plazas

Class 1 Exit Plaza JRU BTU/S JWI BDB BKM TPU CKJ KKS IPU

Juru 1.1 2.8 4.4 6.9 8.5 10.5 13.5 16.8

Bukit Tambun 1.1 1.9 3.5 6.1 7.6 9.6 12.6 15.9

Jawi 2.8 1.9 1.9 4.4 6.1 8 10.9 14.3

Bandar Baharu 4.4 3.5 1.9 2.7 4.4 6.3 9.3 12.4

Bukit Merah 6.9 6.1 4.4 2.7 1.8 3.8 6.8 10.1

Taiping (North) 8.5 7.6 6.1 4.4 1.8 2.2 5.2 8.6

Changkat Jering 10.5 9.6 8.8 6.3 3.8 2.2 3 6.4

Kuala Kangsar 13.5 12.6 10.9 9.3 6.8 5.2 3 3.5

Ipoh North (Jelapang) 16.8 15.9 14.3 12.4 10.1 8.6 6.4 3.5

A3-11

4. Toll Rate System in Japan

1) Light Vehicle - Light vehicle - Motorcycle Toll rate: (150+24.6xL)x0.8 yen, where L is driving distance in km

2) Ordinary Vehicle - Small size vehicle (excluding light vehicle and motorcycle) - Sedan - Light tractor with trailer (which has an axle) Toll rate: 150+24.6xL yen, where L is driving distance in km

3) Medium Vehicle - Small bus with seats of 11 to 29 and a weight less than 8 tons - Truck with a weight less than 8 ton and axles of 3 or less - Light tractor with trailer (which has 2 or more axles) - Tractor with trailer (which has an axles) Toll rate: (150+24.6xL)x1.2 yen, where L is driving distance in km

4) Large Vehicle - Bus with seats of 30 or more or a weight more than 8 tons, and a length less than 9 m - Truck with a weight of 8 to 25 tons and axles of 3 or less - Tractor with trailer (which has 2 or more axles) - Large tractor with trailer (which has an axles) Toll rate: (150+24.6xL)x1.65 yen, where L is driving distance in km

5) Extra Large Vehicle - Bus with sheets of 30 or more, a weight more than 8 tons, and a length more than 9 m - Truck with axles of 4 or more - Large tractor with trailer (which has 2 or more axles) - Large construction vehicle

Toll rate: (150+24.6xL)x2.75 yen, where L is driving distance in km

A3-12

5. Toll Rate System in Korea (Seoul-Chuncheon expressway)

1) Vehicle Class

Vehicle Class Passenger Car Freight Vehicle

1 < 16-seat < 2.5 t

2 17 < 32-seat 2.5 � 5.5 t

3 > 33-seat 5.5 � 10 t

4 10 � 20 t

5 > 20 t

2) Toll Rate

Class-1 Misa IC TocsosampeIC Hwado IC Sojyong IC Seorak IC Gangchon IC NamChuncheo

n ICChuncheon

JCTMisa IC - 1,000 1,600 2,200 3,700 4,500 5,400 5,900Tocsosampe IC 1,000 - 1,600 2,200 3,700 4,500 5,400 5,900Hwado IC 1,600 1,600 - 1,000 2,100 3,700 4,000 4,500Sojyong IC 2,200 2,200 1,000 - 1,500 3,100 3,500 4,000Seorak IC 3,700 3,700 2,100 1,500 - 1,600 2,600 3,200Gangchon IC 4,500 4,500 3,700 3,100 1,600 - 1,000 1,600NamChuncheon IC 5,400 5,400 4,000 3,500 2,600 1,000 - 1,000Chuncheon JCT 5,900 5,900 4,500 4,000 3,200 1,600 1,000 -


n ICChuncheon



n ICChuncheon



n ICChuncheon



n ICChuncheon


A3-13

6. Toll Rate System in Thailand

In Thailand, we have only one true intercity motorway and that is the Bangkok-Chonburi Motorway.

The full length of Toll Road is 86 Km. the toll rate is based on the number of vehicle wheels. The Toll Rate is:

� 4-Wheel Vehicle = 30 Baht � 6-Wheel Vehicle = 50 Baht � >6-Wheel Vehicle = 70 Baht

Therefore for the full motorway the toll is 60 Baht or 0.70 Baht per Km or 0.02USD per km or approximately 400 VND per km. The average AADT traffic varies from 20,000 to 80,000 depending on the section of the Motorway. 7. Toll Rate System in China

Table A3.5 Traffic Volume of Related Highways in 2007

Passenger car veh/d Total

Type I Type II Type III Type IV

Cargo vehicle veh/d

Free vehicle veh/d veh/d pcu/d

Toll station at Wuzhuang trunk of Hefei-Nanjing Highway 3496 132 811 933 8723 202 14296 23953

Hefei-Xuzhou Highway 4146 152 950 946 5258 223 11675 17461 Toll station at the trunk of Lianyungang-Huoerguos Highway in Anhui and Jiangsu Province

3240 97 370 179 9539 157 13582 21404

Toll station at the trunk of Lianyungang-Huoerguos Highway in Anhui and Henan

1646 55 217 182 5250 126 7476 12120

Toll station at the trunk of Bengbu-Nanjing Highway in Anhui and Jiangsu

3565 139 730 1212 5245 187 11078 18033

Toll station at the trunk of Ninghuai Highway 3102 122 569 885 4091 176 8945 13150

Table A3.6 Vehicle type classification and toll standard of vehicle toll for freeways in Anhui (Unit: Yuan/Vehicle /Kilometer)

Vehicle type and specifications Charge standard Class Passenger bus truck

The first class �7 seats �2 Ton 0.4

The second class 8 seats�19 seats 2 Ton�5 Ton�including 5 tons� 0.7

The third class 20 seats�39 seats 5 Ton�10 Ton�including 10 tons� 1.0

�40 seats 10 Ton�15 Ton�including 15 tons� 1.2 The fourth class

Container of 20 foot 1.2 �15 Ton 1.4 The fifth class Container of 40 foot 1.4

A3-14

The charge of passenger bus of this project will be according to vehicle type charge model.

Considering the weight counting charge model adopted currently, dynamic charge standard and close relation of charge rate, gross mass of vehicle and goods, actual load rate and so on, so charge rate of every vehicle is with the character of uniqueness for truck charge. Therefore, correct the charge sum with weight counting charge contribution ratio considering affection from over load to actual charge in the course of truck charge prediction. Considering the treatment to over loading in our country, the over loading phenomenon will be reduced little by little. Combining with the investigation to current highways, the weight counting charge contribution ratio in the earlier years of project establishment is 35% and descending by 1% every year in the future.

Table A3.7 Charge standard schedule in the future years of every vehicle type of this project (Unit: Yuan/Vehicle /Kilometer)

Year Small bus Big bus Small truck Middle truck Big truck trailer

2013-2032 0.49 1.12 0.40 0.79 1.10 1.40

.

SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF VIETNAM Vietnam Expressway Corporation (VEC)

Noi Bai – Lao Cai Highway Technical Assistance Project

TRAFFIC SURVEY REPORTMAIN REPORTAPPENDIX A: ROAD SIDE TRAFFIC COUNT DATAAPPENDIX B: WILLINGNESS TO PAY SURVEY

ORIENTAL CONSULTANTS

November 2009 ORICONSUL

HANOI-LAO CAI HIGHWAY TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT

TRAFFIC SURVEY REPORT Oriental Consultants

Table of contents

1. Project Description 12. Existing transport conditions on Noi Bai- Lao Cai corridor Project

Description 13. Implementation of Traffic Count Survey 1

3.1 Introduction 13.2 Traffic Count Locations 13.3 Vehicle Classification 23.4 Roadside traffic counts. 33.5 Willingness to pay survey 3

A. Summary table of field data carried out by survey team 5B. Summary table of field data carried out by VRA from year 2005 to

September 2009 68

C. Sketch of Traffic Count Locations 101

D. Photograph 126APPENDIX A: ROAD SIDE TRAFFIC COUNT DATA

1. Station No.1 2. Station No.2 3. Station No.3 4. Station No.4 5. Station No.5 6. Station No.6 7. Station No.7 8. Station No.8 9. Station No.9 10. Station No.10 11. Station No.11 12. Station No.12 13. Station No.13

APPENDIX B: WILLINGNESS TO PAY SURVEY

1. Phu Tho Station No.1 2. Yen Bai Station No.1 3. Lao Cai Station No.3



1. Project Description Kun Ming- Hai Phong Transport Corridor is a project under Expanded

Greater Mekong Sub-region Cooperation Program, aiming at promoting the relationship and cooperation among 6 countries sharing Mekong River including Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar and Van Nam (China). In a conference, 6 countries have agreed Kun Ming- Hai Phong Transport Corridor (from Lao Cai to Hai Phong in Vietnam) with the length of 443km to be the first priority road alignment which is closely linked to large and potential market of China and to be negotiated by the Vietnamese Government for inclusion into the Trans-Asia road system. In recent years, the economic and commercial cooperation between Vietnam and China has been greatly improved; export value through Lao Cai international border gate (Vietnam) to Van Nam (China) has been increased and supposed to be much more increased after improvement of transportation system on the corridor. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has decided to assign OC to undertake Small Technical Assistance for Noi Bai - Lao Cai Highway Project (the Project). The Traffic Survey” (the Study) should be implemented in accordance with the relevant laws and regulations in force of Vietnam. The Study covers total 264 km of the corridor between Noi Bai - Lao Cai. OC will engage a qualified local consultant (the Subcontractor) to carry out the Traffic Survey in accordance with the following Specification. The general objectives of the Traffic Study are to obtain:

a) baseline information about present traffic levels in the project area b) data for use in updating the national transport model used in VITRANSS

study in year 2000 c) data for use in review of a traffic forecast for the Noi Bai – Lao Cai Highway

2. Existing transport conditions on Noi Bai- Lao Cai corridor Project Description

Noi Bai - Lao Cai transport route includes NH-2 from Noi Bai – Vinh Yen - Viet Tri – Phong Chau - Doan Hung and NH-70 from Doan Hung to Lao Cai, and additionally, NH-32, NH-32C, NH 4E, PR151, running in parralell and also through Vinh Phuc, Phu Tho, Viet Tri and Lao Cai. 3. Implementation of Traffic Survey 3.1 Introduction

The traffic survey has been implemented on site from 1 September 2009 to 18 September 2009. The traffic survey has been carried out by APECO.

3.2 Traffic Count Locations

The study team conducted traffic count survey at 13 locations on those NHs.Distribution of the count locations (Km Station) is shown in Table 1.



Table 1. Traffic count locations

Location Time Close with

station of NB-LC alignment

Location Zone

1 24 Km 15 NR No.2 Vinh Yen

2 16 Km 30 NR No.2C Vinh Yen

3 16 Km 45 NR No.2 Lo River

4 16 Km 50 NR No. 32 Da River

5 24 Km 55 NR No.2 Viet Tri

6 16 Km 60 NR No. 32C Lam Thao

7 16 Km 68 NR No.2 Phu Tho

8 16 Km 116 NR No. 32C Yen Bai

9 16 Km 116 NR No. 37 Yen Bai

10 16 Km 116 NR No.37 Yen Bai

11 16 Km 196 NR No.279 Yen Bai

12 16 Km 251 NR No.4D Lao Cai

13 16 Km 256 NR No.70 Lao Cai

3.3 Vehicle Classification

Classification of vehicle during the count is in accordance with the format being used by the Vietnam Road Administration. Definition for each type of vehicles is as follows: - Car: Sedan Car of 4 seats. - 4 Wheel Drive: 4 seats or more like Land-cruiser, Jeep, Pajero. - Minibus: 9-15 seats - Light Bus: >15-24 seats - Heavy Bus: more than 24 seats - Pick-up: 4 wheel vehicle that is half car half truck with less than 1 ton load

capacity. - Light Truck: 2 axles, 6 wheels, load capacity of less than 4 ton. - Medium Truck: 2 axles, 6 wheels, load capacity of not less than 4 ton. - Heavy Truck: 3 or more axle.



- Articulated Truck: Container truck of Trailer Truck. - Motorcycle: all 2 wheel motorized vehicle. 3.4 Roadside traffic counts.

The survey locations are selected as shown in the attached figure, which consists of two types by survey period; namely,

��11 survey sites 16-hour (6:00 A.M. – 22:00 P.M.) count stations

��2 sites 24-hour (6:00 A.M. – 6:00 A.M.) count stations.

The 16-hour survey count data should be expanded to the volume for 24 hours with reference to similar survey sites.

The traffic counts survey will be performed simultaneously for 2 days duration on normal weekday on Tuesday/Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday or Friday excluding public holidays. At each count station, traffic has been counted in three 8-hour shift per day. For each shift, 2-6 workers has been assigned under the supervision of 1 Supervisors throughout the count duration. After each count day, the data has been input to computer in the form standardized in Excel for easy analysis of the data. Existing road side traffic counts data carried out by Vietnam Road Administrator (VRA) was collected from year 2004 to 2009 by monthly data, the data has been input to computer in the form standardized in Excel files.

3.5 Willingness to pay survey.

The 03 survey locations are selected for Lao Cai, Yen Bai and Phu Tho Provinces, which consists of three interview survey forms as:

�� Truck Operator Interview

�� Bus Operator Interview

�� Private Vehicle Driver/Owner Interview

At each station, 30 drivers and 03 companies were interviewed by survey team, the data has been input to the form standardized



A. SUMMARY TABLE OF FIELD DATA FOR ROAD SIDE TRAFFIC COUNT CARRIED OUT BY SURVEY TEAM

Noi

Bai

- La

o C

ai H

ighw

ay T

echn

ical

Ass

ista

nce

Proj

ect

Sta

tion

(Lý

tr×nh

):K

m 1

5Tr

affic

Cou

nt P

oint

:1-

1

Dat

e (N

gµy)

:9/

9/20

09

Dire

ctio

n (H

-íng)

:H

a N

oi -

Lao

Cai

Sed

anFo

ur W

heel

Driv

eM

ini B

us 9

-16

No.

Ligh

t Bus

>9-

24 N

o.H

eavy

Bus

>24N

o.P

ick

- up

Ligh

t Tru

ck 6

whe

el a

nd <

4to

ns

Med

ium

Tru

ck(2

axl

e, 6

whe

el a

nd >

4to

ns)

Hea

vy T

ruck

(> 3

axl

es)

Arti

cula

ted

Truc

k1

23

45

67

89

1011

126:

00~

7:00

3015

1136

202

3630

2313

487:

00~

8:00

3743

1248

356

4136

299

548:

00~

9:00

4148

330

364

4824

243

309:

00~

10:0

042

1814

4823

838

2318

1636

10:0

0~

11:0

011

:00

~12

:00

4425

729

242

833

218

2612

:00

~13

:00

3937

733

182

2417

1713

3713

:00

~14

:00

4821

1248

234

3548

175

3014

:00

~15

:00

4824

848

235

3548

335

3715

:00

~16

:00

3934

1436

3013

2823

367

4016

:00

~17

:00

4816

935

366

3920

239

4917

:00

~18

:00

3635

1824

2427

1224

812

4818

:00

~19

:00

4830

611

1917

2915

1836

19:0

0~

20:0

030

195

185

59

3012

1830

20:0

0~

21:0

028

95

1712

22

2516

1621

21:0

0~

22:0

011

1719

63

442

1125

1322

:00

~23

:00

21

67

36

523

:00

~0:

002

53

62

0:00

~1:

002

11

1:00

~2:

002

33

2:00

~3:

001

43

25

33:

00~

4:00

11

23

12

64:

005:

002

12

12

23

215

5:00

~6:

005

23

45

21

225

578

392

153

473

336

8839

747

832

020

459

1

Hou

rs

Tota

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d si

de tr

affic

cou

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(Dai

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ary)

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Veh

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Car

Bus

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cle

Rem

arks

Cat

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Noi

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ay T

echn

ical

Ass

ista

nce

Proj

ect

Sta

tion

(Lý

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):K

m 1

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nt P

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:1-

2

Dat

e (N

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:9/

9/20

09

Dire

ctio

n (H

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Driv

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Ligh

t Tru

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Hea

vy T

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(> 3

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Arti

cula

ted

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23

45

67

89

1011

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00~

7:00

224

1823

62

927

1112

427:

00~

8:00

244

718

126

187

336

8:00

~9:

0048

1313

1728

2029

1038

9:00

~10

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121

11

26

631

10:0

0~

11:0

042

1810

1024

4836

4816

616

11:0

0~

12:0

016

414

1224

201

247

424

12:0

0~

13:0

018

106

156

218

2823

942

13:0

0~

14:0

026

67

128

616

245

3914

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~15

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242

218

61

77

1816

3615

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~16

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344

44

72

208

1017

16:0

0~

17:0

029

29

1012

221

1012

4117

:00

~18

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182

1224

185

2418

2432

3618

:00

~19

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302

1224

111

1823

3210

3019

:00

~20

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364

414

151

1726

157

2520

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~21

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304

46

56

2516

1317

21:0

0~

22:0

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44

81

1129

1319

1322

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~23

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21

13

21

310

23:0

0~

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11

25

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50:

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1:00

21

12

21:

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2:00

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2:00

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11

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12

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24

165:

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6:00

32

21

32

21

25

444

6712

621

218

587

206

369

273

200

553

Hou

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de tr

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(Dai

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Veh

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Car

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k

Mot

orcy

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Rem

arks

Cat

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y

Noi

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ay T

echn

ical

Ass

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Proj

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(Lý

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nd >

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Hea

vy T

ruck

(> 3

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Arti

cula

ted

Truc

k1

23

45

67

89

1011

126:

00~

7:00

3723

1240

1548

3522

119

307:

00~

8:00

4247

1648

641

3633

813

488:

00~

9:00

4830

842

348

2024

214

369:

00~

10:0

034

366

4828

432

1836

953

10:0

0~

11:0

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1415

3518

148

3017

1327

11:0

0~

12:0

031

286

3716

287

2515

3712

:00

~13

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3037

648

230

3718

347

13:0

0~

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308

4239

248

2414

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~15

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4836

1835

536

548

1254

15:0

0~

16:0

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3612

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4830

2810

4216

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~17

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3817

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3424

2512

1740

17:0

0~

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1610

243

2845

2416

6018

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~19

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3024

273

2545

2416

4019

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~20

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3615

338

1733

1818

2820

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~21

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3612

69

235

2816

1712

21:0

0~

22:0

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72

324

2420

1822

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~23

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2:00

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2:00

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3:00

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62

4:00

5:00

21

11

42

23

205:

00~

6:00

31

12

21

32

21

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598

414

142

541

9120

751

547

238

223

966

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(> 3

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Arti

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ted

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23

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67

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126:

00~

7:00

242

68

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1816

122

247:

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4830

1724

324

278

68

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9:00

4819

1818

363

2529

301

369:

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10:0

047

226

1224

4936

367

3610

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~11

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3616

107

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3530

3010

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~12

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244

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3024

1530

12:0

0~

13:0

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112

2412

618

13:0

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69

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1012

2414

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~15

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184

511

86

1513

630

15:0

0~

16:0

024

710

71

612

145

3016

:00

~17

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2413

1230

712

3617

:00

~18

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202

2416

192

1228

249

4618

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~19

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184

1618

101

2422

1416

3619

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~20

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134

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1210

1812

1329

20:0

0~

21:0

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75

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25

1824

1125

21:0

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22:0

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608:

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368

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3427

336

1836

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11:0

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935

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12:0

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536

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286

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2930

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14:0

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233

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15:0

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17:0

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19:0

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630

1927

148

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20:0

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20:0

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21:0

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22:0

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Veh

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Bus

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Rem

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Cat

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Noi

Bai

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echn

ical

Ass

ista

nce

Proj

ect

Sta

tion

(Lý

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:1-

2

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e (N

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No.

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>24N

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Ligh

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67

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184

1012

51

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197

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186

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197

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413

244

019

:00

~20

:00

355

25

105

320

227

020

:00

~21

:00

62

161

102

111

314

021

:00

~22

:00

517

45

12

15

8122

:00

~23

:00

23:0

0~

0:00

0:00

~1:

001:

00~

2:00

2:00

~3:

003:

00~

4:00

4:00

5:00

5:00

~6:

0026

216

615

810

959

163

138

118

9127

3578

Hou

rs

Tota

l

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d si

de tr

affic

cou

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(Dai

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Rem

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Proj

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No.

Hea

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4No.

Pic

k - u

pLi

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ruck

6w

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and

<4

tons

Med

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Tru

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axl

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whe

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4to

ns)

Hea

vy T

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(> 3

axl

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Arti

cula

ted

Truc

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23

45

67

89

1011

126:

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7:00

118

56

16

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61

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7:00

~8:

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316

48

1313

167

141

58:

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9:00

1216

283

2326

65

23

346

9:00

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1015

2314

73

1833

151

202

10:0

0~

0:00

147

163

1216

212

195

257

11:0

0~

12:0

019

613

76

1221

2124

317

612

:00

~13

:00

262

72

414

423

192

207

13:0

0~

14:0

038

28

111

1518

34

111

14:0

0~

15:0

018

284

114

58

1815

186

15:0

0~

16:0

06

229

336

214

2018

7216

:00

~17

:00

334

815

319

196

36

240

17:0

0~

18:0

015

3714

72

164

213

526

018

:00

~19

:00

514

103

612

412

122

259

19:0

0~

20:0

017

212

1220

133

16

312

120

:00

~21

:00

317

26

24

12

110

221

:00

~22

:00

611

31

63

61

282

22:0

0~

23:0

023

:00

~0:

000:

00~

1:00

1:00

~2:

002:

00~

3:00

3:00

~4:

004:

005:

005:

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6:00

289

231

158

128

115

182

161

180

165

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Ligh

t Tru

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Med

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Hea

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(> 3

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Arti

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Truc

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23

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126:

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7:00

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17

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2418

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8:00

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09:

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103

922

1927

420

310

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92

102

115

527

1018

111

:00

~12

:00

154

45

41

28

2412

183

12:0

0~

13:0

06

51

33

110

96

860

13:0

0~

14:0

013

76

123

215

122

697

14:0

0~

15:0

022

314

193

1613

333

1212

215

:00

~16

:00

197

12

330

278

3111

164

16:0

0~

17:0

020

84

14

210

635

420

517

:00

~18

:00

1414

21

216

188

99

251

18:0

0~

19:0

017

101

11

120

96

722

219

:00

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:00

94

22

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120

20:0

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32

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21:0

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22:0

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511

23

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159

9922

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~23

:00

23:0

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0:00

0:00

~1:

001:

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2:00

2:00

~3:

003:

00~

4:00

4:00

5:00

5:00

~6:

0021

812

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7841

105

214

145

300

121

2430

Roa

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(Dai

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Mot

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No.

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>24N

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Ligh

t Tru

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whe

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Med

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Tru

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whe

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Hea

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(> 3

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Arti

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Truc

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23

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67

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126:

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123

711

12

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7:00

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82

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921

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291

8:00

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178

56

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811

969:

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412

399

10:0

0~

0:00

285

614

69

1218

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8411

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~12

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1314

27

32

134

16

117

12:0

0~

13:0

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32

119

13:0

0~

14:0

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1719

193

610

513

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14:0

0~

15:0

012

811

27

316

321

310

615

:00

~16

:00

338

318

311

92

73

115

16:0

0~

17:0

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64

41

2115

614

517

017

:00

~18

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46

11

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101

190

18:0

0~

19:0

03

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616

710

175

7719

:00

~20

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51

21

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35

5120

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~21

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1211

13

191

182

51

5221

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82

31

12

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22:0

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23:0

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1:00

1:00

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002:

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3:00

3:00

~4:

004:

005:

005:

00~

6:00

246

119

7710

398

106

198

8115

242

1531

Hou

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de tr

affic

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(Dai

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Proj

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No.

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Bus

>24N

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- up

Ligh

t Tru

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whe

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4to

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Med

ium

Tru

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Hea

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(> 3

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Arti

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23

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67

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126:

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7:00

63

24

135

581

7:00

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3118

2612

78:

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9:00

139

112

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184

317

178

9:00

~10

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1623

43

415

1927

212

233

10:0

0~

0:00

277

45

319

218

328

157

11:0

0~

12:0

07

122

45

416

1127

1921

512

:00

~13

:00

122

72

74

157

56

4413

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~14

:00

1014

414

24

1119

1311

123

14:0

0~

15:0

043

133

164

2118

831

914

515

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~16

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1820

45

627

3213

226

115

16:0

0~

17:0

032

1413

42

165

1438

723

517

:00

~18

:00

233

12

13

123

1715

156

18:0

0~

19:0

017

183

22

117

128

421

019

:00

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514

41

613

174

23

155

20:0

0~

21:0

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129

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21:0

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22:0

010

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216

25

1410

6322

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23:0

0~

0:00

0:00

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001:

00~

2:00

2:00

~3:

003:

00~

4:00

4:00

5:00

5:00

~6:

0025

517

276

6855

157

233

180

296

142

2363

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o.H

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>24N

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- up

Ligh

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whe

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4to

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Med

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whe

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Hea

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(> 3

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Arti

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67

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126:

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143

577:

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8:00

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2814

121

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8:00

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2311

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432

912

313

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56

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324

918

1113

610

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113

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1519

195

110

11:0

0~

12:0

018

69

56

56

16

1286

12:0

0~

13:0

05

133

22

52

145

227

13:0

0~

14:0

017

2824

126

174

711

211

314

:00

~15

:00

172

172

417

1518

162

7815

:00

~16

:00

2421

612

168

314

214

128

16:0

0~

17:0

030

82

14

322

916

416

617

:00

~18

:00

103

42

923

53

215

18:0

0~

19:0

07

23

75

818

2524

293

19:0

0~

20:0

07

23

24

217

52

3320

:00

~21

:00

612

41

167

1312

91

6621

:00

~22

:00

29

12

52

49

6422

:00

~23

:00

23:0

0~

0:00

0:00

~1:

001:

00~

2:00

2:00

~3:

003:

00~

4:00

4:00

5:00

5:00

~6:

0024

515

812

476

9811

126

216

619

757

1607

Hou

rs

Tota

l

Roa

d si

de tr

affic

cou

nts

(Dai

ly S

umm

ary)

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t ng

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Veh

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Car

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Truc

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Rem

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B. SUMMARY TABLE OF ROAD SIDE TRAFFIC COUNT CARRIED OUT BY VIETNAM ROAD ADMINISTRATOR FROM YEAR 2005 – TO SEPTEMBER 2009

Unit: No. /Day

No. Station/Month Sedan Light

TruckMediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus

TukTuk Motorcycle Bicycle Total

1 Km 15 1837 2324 1468 792 364 1033 921 30 6096 3709 8769JanuaryFebruary

MarchAprilMayJuneJuly

AugustSeptember

OctoberNovemberDecember



AugustSeptember




AugustSeptember


526 278 1313 1200 3829477 910 432 391 331 484

424 440 281 36571215 1111318436 914 430 414

423 392 259 3931

930 29 6368 3812 8745

1168 1049320

1879 2207 1477 769 410

539 943 518 537

1044

807 786 23 67211271 11171041054 1755 1372 820

788 777 2572

15

6491

930 29 6368 3812 8745

1379 12141058 2046 1023 702

6228 3552 8963

1879 2207 1477 769 410 1044

1879 2399 1456 757 409 1087 961

3762 8598

Road side traffic counts carried out by VRA - Natinal Road No. 2 - Year 2006

1752 2366 1472 849 273 967 873 46 5692

Unit: No. /Day


TruckMediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus





AugustSeptember




AugustSeptember


1605 2197 51693 93 113 70 9 69

60 33 29

34 35

4431409 1567980 70 93 69

70 34 28 527

141 18 3435 4050 921

1621 228326

138 197 236 95 42

106 95 103 65

54

97 125 25 9483320 396537139 208 230 87

66 153 17 9243475 401623153 202 248 62

Unit: No. /Day


TruckMediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus


1 Km 15 1856 2298 1485 746 391 1065 1098 27 6692 4134 8967April 1912 2175 1313 900 328 884 993 36 5982 4117 8541May 1477 2166 1217 512 344 851 862 17 4706 3396 7446June 2115 2228 1754 787 382 1254 1275 54 8234 4553 9849

October 1875 2653 1556 762 402 1168 1143 27 6751 4230 9586November 1854 2399 1566 695 383 1166 1292 21 6730 4175 9376December 1905 2169 1501 821 506 1069 1022 9 7749 4332 9002

2 Km 45 1119 2229 1056 769 110 889 862 23 1306 1234 7056April 1235 2477 1165 881 122 995 973 36 1368 1232 7884May 1191 2394 1131 887 130 945 900 36 1377 1565 7614June 1088 2163 1016 546 76 839 792 17 1198 1093 6537


3 Km 108 463 924 443 437 241 481 472 209 1492 1369 3669April 445 854 414 359 304 433 425 304 1352 1249 3538May 435 898 456 454 222 395 421 163 1435 1343 3444June 446 871 261 347 254 615 523 237 1255 1175 3554


4 Km 145 139 171 190 87 40 56 142 10 3239 3743 836April 161 173 209 58 31 46 129 7 3422 3960 814May 116 143 192 92 34 38 145 9 3057 3555 769June 140 152 189 93 35 57 152 6 3318 3867 824


5 Km 219 106 102 96 48 13 78 24 32 1442 1673 500April 111 111 114 66 18 85 27 39 1595 1849 571May 118 125 126 68 13 79 25 45 1498 1985 599June 130 131 128 65 19 95 30 37 1718 1890 635



Unit: No. /Day


TruckMediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus


1 Km 15 1905 2470 1482 954 463 1096 1120 25 7296 4097 9514January 1931 2764 1761 1194 575 1177 1101 21 6768 4168 10524February 1653 2384 1308 900 337 996 1031 8 6192 3475 8617

March 1824 2346 1450 856 441 1143 1124 30 6492 3437 9214April 1863 2509 1432 886 524 1056 1073 22 7354 4458 9365May 1751 2404 1423 925 438 968 1009 23 7267 4263 8941June 2019 2511 1506 905 449 1176 1235 36 7942 4227 9837July 2057 2420 1412 1050 484 1048 1135 21 7633 4066 9627

August 2038 2521 1606 858 489 1308 1274 19 7638 3466 10113September 2100 2500 1509 917 479 1119 1140 22 8239 4562 9786











Unit: No. /Day


TruckMediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus











Unit: No. /Day


TruckMediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus


Km 15 1834 2535 1391 1064 454 1096 1124 25 7736 4044 95231 January 1893 2392 1448 983 462 1067 1015 24 7885 4237 9284

February 1929 2644 1308 1135 423 1070 1013 24 7288 3625 9546March 1902 2887 1559 995 395 1187 1193 50 7437 3878 10168AprilMayJuneJuly 1758 2431 1283 1154 455 1110 1108 33 7250 3811 9331




March 980 1952 914 729 102 794 769 57 1425 1418 6297AprilMayJuneJuly 1046 2020 1026 781 100 900 876 57 1508 1774 6807












Unit: No. /Day


TruckMediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus







Unit: No. /Day


TruckMediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus


1 Km 15 1802 2516 1411 1030 481 1133 1188 12 7806 3972 9571January 1738 2559 1406 1107 447 1128 1265 19 7635 3848 9669

February 1708 2440 1315 989 412 1141 1155 10 7470 3492 9170March 1805 2472 1406 1143 477 1116 1148 19 7607 3787 9586April 1771 2366 1346 1007 457 1092 1146 12 8065 3701 9197May 1879 2505 1387 1029 450 1094 1217 15 8085 3627 9576June 1784 2411 1436 1153 527 1131 1166 3 7800 4019 9611July 1792 2349 1481 946 474 1203 1224 2 8944 3927 9471







3 Km 108 494 998 519 523 249 500 520 0 2286 2062 3803January 558 1144 574 589 257 572 592 0 2503 2060 4286February 622 1197 630 630 304 626 636 2503 2123 4645

March 582 1175 605 610 269 591 609 2560 2175 4441April 599 1202 637 641 293 605 629 0 2525 2190 4606May 545 1108 567 576 263 537 575 0 2333 2122 4171June 540 1117 575 609 271 531 570 0 2320 2147 4213July 454 930 490 495 220 428 464 0 2115 1941 3481




Unit: No. /Day


TruckMediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus











Unit: No. /Day

No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus


1 Km 15 2039 1983 2232 1005 711 1444 1193 6 9773 2293 10613January 1909 3104 1529 1273 568 1198 1211 7 7449 4789 10799

February 2022 2912 1615 1284 584 1302 1349 4 7755 4514 11072March 2146 3254 1865 1372 646 1540 1579 4 8602 5273 12406April 1847 2795 1635 1183 612 1092 1132 5 7542 3550 10301May 2190 2746 2592 889 566 885 984 16 5427 1468 10868June 1733 1853 1584 692 472 673 992 16 3951 1047 8015July 2361 529 3681 944 1061 2249 1242 0 16376 0 12067












Unit: No. /Day

No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus









No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus




AugustSeptember


1321 949

779

648

826

1331 973

89 81 160 191

77 75 117 81

81 44

17 177

11 169

75 29

1406 1521

Road side traffic counts carried out by VRA - Natinal Road No.4E - Year 2004Unit: No. /Day

55 81 156 174 17 165 86 45

No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus


1 Km 27 107 96 143 101 6 169 81 38 1383 1037 741April 116 96 175 137 1 164 86 47 1316 1122 822May 130 111 161 95 12 200 103 35 1475 967 847June 102 89 124 84 10 171 77 40 1347 995 697



No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus







No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus







No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus







No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus






No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus



March 143 141 104 61 27 81 75 28 8671 8610 660July 163 157 122 69 35 87 85 39 8736 8668 757



Road side traffic counts carried out by VRA - Natinal Road No.37 - Year 2007Unit: No. /Day

No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus











No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus









No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus




AugustSeptember




AugustSeptember



261 268 367 127 86 97 111 127 1273 1084 1444

207 256 95 59 107 99 96

99 106265 120 51 96 1034 966 1190

262

248

1068 934 1181

205

148 70 32 44 1643 490117 96

39 50

44 10

155 98 141 58

39 51 37 7126 88 197 70

561

586

615

37 8

1535 401

1842 348

No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus


1 Km 3 260 147 204 113 63 92 96 96 908 825 1071April 238 190 267 130 46 90 109 99 1230 1112 1169May 348 141 173 104 75 102 92 102 828 758 1137June 160 176 228 98 51 65 82 76 1216 1102 936July 263 115 139 100 92 108 101 116 507 489 1034


2 Km 46 137 108 153 92 54 59 43 10 1345 456 656April 141 127 181 100 48 67 43 4 1416 476 711May 101 113 189 111 71 73 57 26 1513 556 741June 129 87 132 79 38 47 37 4 1160 502 553



No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus











No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus



March 203 163 232 161 123 105 126 77 1223 1197 1190July 205 245 294 206 155 85 175 79 1135 1123 1444




March 114 86 145 77 49 53 59 22 949 302 605July 184 130 111 118 95 65 34 6 718 226 743




No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus










3 Km 125 133 118 100 93 90 41 32 15 1772 800 562January 0February 154 148 123 141 122 51 37 3118 1331 776

March 324 113 93 71 90 58 33 2022 1058 782April 165 147 99 79 80 57 42 1677 795 669May 109 89 105 53 71 26 21 32 2127 1185 506June 128 194 124 121 132 52 40 33 1250 534 824July 116 116 108 111 108 54 35 1155 567 648


October 104 118 100 99 77 45 36 1324 1143 579November 72 68 84 87 82 18 19 1321 537 430December 122 131 87 97 82 32 30 0 2168 771 581


No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus








3 Km 125 211 141 100 75 84 50 50 2 2036 820 711January 115 109 102 98 104 46 44 1297 943 618February 282 100 84 76 78 48 58 1941 644 726

March 324 113 93 71 90 58 33 2022 1058 782April 225 145 85 77 83 61 73 2104 737 749May 198 163 92 53 75 45 34 2966 1646 660June 225 192 139 86 81 46 49 2410 835 818July 256 191 103 47 60 61 79 0 2062 490 797



No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus




AugustSeptember


644 379

256

193

215

465 296

51 19 21 25

42 20 26 24

19 45

19 9

21 14

27 26

532 420


51 17 40 34 18 12 29 55

No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus


1 Km 38 55 36 25 20 11 20 25 28 723 459 218April 54 34 11 16 22 10 26 20 743 391 193May 47 26 23 8 7 22 13 32 677 390 178June 46 35 20 22 16 10 30 39 618 412 218



No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus







No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus



March 82 13 52 56 15 14 51 54 953 708 337July 43 86 49 52 11 29 44 27 830 826 341




No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus







No. Station/Month

Sedan LightTruck

MediumTruck

HeavyTruck

ArticulateTruck

LightBus

HeavyBus






HA

NO

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WA

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TRA

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CT

TRA

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SU

RV

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OR

T O

rient

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onsu

ltant

s

loca

tion

1km

15

Vinh

yen

Team

1 In

clude

s : T

raffic

coun

ts po

ints :

N01

, N02

Ha N

oi

Nr2Tr

affic

Cou

nt (2

4h)

Nr2 T

raffic

Cou

nt (2

4h)

2 1

100

m

Lao

cai

CÇu

Tam

Can

h

Tam

can

h Br

idge

Tam canh stream

HA

NO

I-LA

O C

AI H

IGH

WA

Y TE

CH

NIC

AL

ASS

ISTA

NC

E PR

OJE

CT

TRA

FFIC

SU

RV

EY R

EP

OR

T O

rient

al C

onsu

ltant

s

loca

tion

2km

30

vinh

yen

Team

1 In

clude

s : T

raffic

coun

ts po

ints :

N01

, N02

ha n

oi

Nr 2

cTr

affic

Cou

nt (1

6h)

Nr 2

cTr

affic

Cou

nt (1

6h)

2 1

Xãm lÎ

Khu

vùc X

ãm G

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Khuvù

cXãm

LÎ

Proje

ctal

ignmen

t

Proje

ctal

ignmen

t

Proje

ctal

ignmen

t

Proje

ctal

ignmen

tkm

30+600

HA

NO

I-LA

O C

AI H

IGH

WA

Y TE

CH

NIC

AL

ASS

ISTA

NC

E PR

OJE

CT

TRA

FFIC

SU

RV

EY R

EP

OR

T O

rient

al C

onsu

ltant

s

loca

tion

3km

45

Lo r

iver

Team

2 In

clude

s : T

raffic

coun

ts po

ints :

N01

, N02

Ha N

oi

Nr2Tr

affic

Cou

nt (1

6h)

Nr2 T

raffic

Cou

nt (1

6h)

2

1

1000

m

Lao

cai

CÇu

ViÖt

Tr×

Viet

Tri

Bridg

e

Lo r

iver

HA

NO

I-LA

O C

AI H

IGH

WA

Y TE

CH

NIC

AL

ASS

ISTA

NC

E PR

OJE

CT

TRA

FFIC

SU

RV

EY R

EP

OR

T O

rient

al C

onsu

ltant

s

loca

tion

4km

50

da r

iver

Team

2 In

clude

s : T

raffic

coun

ts po

ints :

N01

, N02

Ha N

oi

Nr32

Traf

fic C

ount

(16h

)

Nr32

Traf

fic C

ount

(16h

)

2 1

100

m

yen

bai

CÇu

Trun

g Hµ

Trun

g ha

Brid

ge

da r

iver

HA

NO

I-LA

O C

AI H

IGH

WA

Y TE

CH

NIC

AL

ASS

ISTA

NC

E PR

OJE

CT

TRA

FFIC

SU

RV

EY R

EP

OR

T O

rient

al C

onsu

ltant

s

loca

tion

5km

55

Viet

Tri

Team

2 In

clude

s : T

raffic

coun

ts po

ints :

N01

, N02

Ha N

oi

Nr2

Traf

fic C

ount

(24h

)

Nr2

Traf

fic C

ount

(24h

)

2 1

100

m

yen

bai

CÇu

Phó

N̈ng

phu

nang

bri

dge

Stre

am

HA

NO

I-LA

O C

AI H

IGH

WA

Y TE

CH

NIC

AL

ASS

ISTA

NC

E PR

OJE

CT

TRA

FFIC

SU

RV

EY R

EP

OR

T O

rient

al C

onsu

ltant

s

loca

tion

6km

60

phu

tho

Team

3 In

clude

s : T

raffic

coun

ts po

ints :

N01

, N02

Ha N

oi

Nr32

cTr

affic

Cou

nt (1

6h)

Nr32

cTr

affic

Cou

nt (1

6h)

2 1

100

m

yen

bai

CÇu

MiÔ

u

MIE

U BR

IDGE

Stre

am

HA

NO

I-LA

O C

AI H

IGH

WA

Y TE

CH

NIC

AL

ASS

ISTA

NC

E PR

OJE

CT

TRA

FFIC

SU

RV

EY R

EP

OR

T O

rient

al C

onsu

ltant

s

loca

tion

7km

68

Phu

tho

Team

1 In

clude

s : T

raffic

coun

ts po

ints :

N01

, N02

, N03

noi b

aiNr 2

Traf

fic C

ount

(16h

)

Nr 2

1

Lao

cai

Traf

fic C

ount

(16h

)3provical road 315

provical road 315

Traf

fic C

ount

(16h

)

2

(Cro

ssed

pro

ject

ali

gnm

ent)

HA

NO

I-LA

O C

AI H

IGH

WA

Y TE

CH

NIC

AL

ASS

ISTA

NC

E PR

OJE

CT

TRA

FFIC

SU

RV

EY R

EP

OR

T O

rient

al C

onsu

ltant

s

km 1

16ye

n ba

iTe

am 3

Inclu

des :

Tra

ffic co

unts

point

s : N

01, N

02

Ha N

oi

Nr32

cTr

affic

Cou

nt (1

6h)

Nr32

cTr

affic

Cou

nt (1

6h)

2 1

100

m

yen

bai

CÇu

V̈n

Phó

VAN

PHU

BRID

GE

Red

Rive

r

HA

NO

I-LA

O C

AI H

IGH

WA

Y TE

CH

NIC

AL

ASS

ISTA

NC

E PR

OJE

CT

TRA

FFIC

SU

RV

EY R

EP

OR

T O

rient

al C

onsu

ltant

s

loca

tion

9km

116

yen

bai

Team

3 In

clude

s : T

raffic

coun

ts po

ints :

N01

, N02

Yen

BaiNr

37Tr

affic

Cou

nt (1

6h)

Nr37

Traf

fic C

ount

(16h

)

2 1

(Crossed project alignment)

Au l

au S

trea

m

Au L

au B

ridge

Au l

au S

trea

m

HA

NO

I-LA

O C

AI H

IGH

WA

Y TE

CH

NIC

AL

ASS

ISTA

NC

E PR

OJE

CT

TRA

FFIC

SU

RV

EY R

EP

OR

T O

rient

al C

onsu

ltant

s

loca

tion

10

km 1

16Ye

n Ba

iTe

am 3

Inclu

des :

Tra

ffic co

unts

point

s : N

01, N

02, N

03

lao

cai

Nr 70

Nr 70 ha noi

nr 3

7

nr 3

7Tr

affic

Cou

nt (1

6h)

2

Traf

fic C

ount

(16h

)

1

TrafficCount (16h)3

Nr 70

Nr 70

yen

bai

HA

NO

I-LA

O C

AI H

IGH

WA

Y TE

CH

NIC

AL

ASS

ISTA

NC

E PR

OJE

CT

TRA

FFIC

SU

RV

EY R

EP

OR

T O

rient

al C

onsu

ltant

s

loca

tion

11

km 1

96ye

n ba

iTe

am 4

Inclu

des :

Tra

ffic co

unts

point

s : N

01, N

02ha noi

Nr 2

79

Nr 2

79

lao

cai

provical road 151

provical road 151

Traf

fic C

ount

(16h

)1

NR27

9

Nr27

9Tr

affic

Cou

nt (1

6h)

2

(Crossed Project Alignment)

red

rive

r Tan

anFe

rry

HA

NO

I-LA

O C

AI H

IGH

WA

Y TE

CH

NIC

AL

ASS

ISTA

NC

E PR

OJE

CT

TRA

FFIC

SU

RV

EY R

EP

OR

T O

rient

al C

onsu

ltant

s

loca

tion

12

km 2

51la

o ca

iTe

am 5

Inclu

des :

Tra

ffic co

unts

point

s : N

01, N

02, N

03sapa Nr

4d

Nr 4

dLa

oca

icen

ter

nr 4e

nr 4e

Traf

fic C

ount

(16h

)

2

Traf

fic C

ount

(16h

)1

Traf

ficCo

unt(

16h)

3

Nr4d Nr

4d

Ha n

oi

HA

NO

I-LA

O C

AI H

IGH

WA

Y TE

CH

NIC

AL

ASS

ISTA

NC

E PR

OJE

CT

TRA

FFIC

SU

RV

EY R

EP

OR

T O

rient

al C

onsu

ltant

s

loca

tion

13

km 2

56la

o Ca

iTe

am 6

Inclu

des :

Tra

ffic co

unts

point

s : N

01, N

02

yen

baiNr

70Tr

affic

Cou

nt (1

6h)

Nr70

Traf

fic C

ount

(16h

)

2 1

100

m

lao

cai

CÇu

B¶n

PhiÖ

t

Ban

Phiet

Brid

ge

RailWayRailWay

RailWayRailWay



d. PhotographicRoadside traffic counts



Vehicle Classification

Sedan 4 Wheel Drive car

Mini Bus 9-15 seats Ligh Bus >15-24 seats

Heavy Bus >24 seats Pick Up



Medium Truck 2 axle 6 wheel >4 ton

Light trucks 2 axle 6 wheel <4 ton

Heavy Truck 3 axle Articulated Truck



Willingness to pay survey