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@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Why do we es5mate?
Analysis of requirements Priori5sa5on
Predic5on Blame!
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Warren Ellis, author & humanist
“I try not to get involved in the business of predic'on.
It's a quick way to look like an idiot.”
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How long is a piece of string?
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120 cm 100 cm 70 cm 60 cm 40 cm
E. D. C. A. B.
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... these studies which have for a few years now given rise to the claim that "research shows that people are be)er at rela5ve than absolute es5ma5on" do not in fact seem to square with that claim.
This doesn't entai l that re la5ve es5ma5on doesn't work -‐ only that it is not proven.
h)p://guide.agilealliance.org/guide/rela5ve.html
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12 cm 10 cm 7 cm 6 cm 4 cm
E. D. C. A. B.
@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
h)ps://es5ma5on.lunarlogic.io/assets/cards-‐range-‐8fc41b2e3fd282125f4602a712020204.png
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@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Resource alloca5on
Release planning
How much?
When?
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winnipegagilist.blogspot.com
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© C
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@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Probabilis5c planning
...uses historical data or a model of expected capability to build a
forecast of the project outcome
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Cost of delay
http://blackswanfarming.com/cost-of-delay/
... is a way of communicating the impact of time on value.
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
“... rather than trying to improve the ini>al project es>mates, the budgets and deadlines must be set based on the value of delivery (not the cost).”
h)p://www.gilb.com/dl460
Es5ma5on: A Paradigm Shig Toward Dynamic Design-‐to-‐Cost
and Radical Management
@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
Shouty!
h)ps://github.com/cucumber-‐ltd/shouty.net
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
"We aren't really bad at es5ma5ng.
What we are really bad at is enumera5ng all the assump5ons that lie behind our es5mates."
-‐Paul Rook
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Woody Zuill
h)p://www.agileroots.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2014/06/WoodyZuill_2013-‐150x168.png
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
BANG HEAD HERE
Observed Cycle
h)p://ajcp.ascpjournals.org/content/134/3/361/F1.large.jpg
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Vasco Duarte
h)p://2013.itakeunconf.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2013/03/vasco-‐duarte-‐300x400.jpg
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
h)ps://media.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/shrink_200_200/p/7/000/2c4/38d/0ea9e25.jpg
Neil Killick
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.ioh)p://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1176417752/Headshot_2.jpg
Glen Alleman
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
The idea behind the #NoEs5mates approach to sogware development
isn't to eliminate es:mates
[it is] to explore other ways to solve problems
without specifically asking, 'How long will it take?'
h)p://www.cio.com/ar5cle/2381167/agile-‐development/-‐no-‐es5mates-‐in-‐ac5on-‐5-‐ways-‐to-‐rethink-‐sogware-‐projects.html
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Giving sogware projects an API ... [is] about
“yes, yes, yes”.
h)p://xprogramming.com/ar5cles/ar5facts-‐are-‐not-‐the-‐problem/
@sebrose h)p://cucumber.io
Ask yourself whether the value you get from es5mates jus5fies the cost of producing them.
#NoEs:mates is the banner under which people look for alterna:ve ways
of gerng the benefits that they want,
without the waste that they don’t.
Finally....
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