NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD Multi-Faceted Services of New NWS Local Climate Products Marina Timofeyeva, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and NOAA.

NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD

Multi-Faceted Services of New NWS Local Climate Products

Marina Timofeyeva,University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and NOAA NWS

Contributors: Robert Livezey, Michael Brewer, Annette Hollingshead and David Unger



Outline• Lessons of L3MTO implementation

• New local user needs

• What NWS can offer in response to these needs?

• New local product: 3 Month Outlook of Local El Nino / La Nina Impacts (3MOLEI) with Rate of Local Climate Change

• 3MOLEI local variables developmental work incorporates local climate specificities and user needs


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CD83 SLC Ogden Heber Pl. Grove Logan

L3MTO Implementation Lessons

• Provides guidance for local users



• Links NOAA National Centers (CPC, NCDC) with Local Offices and local users

NOAANWS Regional

And Local Offices

NOAANWS Regional

And Local Offices

NOAANESDIS NCDC

NOAANESDIS NCDC

NOAANWS NCEP

CPC

NOAANWS NCEP

CPC

Expertise inMetadata and Observations

Local Customer Services and Feedback

Expertise in data QC, Homogenized Data

Expertise inMonitoring and Outlook Products



• Meets scientific requirements (RISAs)– Verification (ARC + Forecast Evaluation Tool)– Consistency in components’ interpretation



• Meets scientific requirements (RISAs)– Verification (ARC + Forecast Evaluation Tool)– Consistency in components’ interpretation

Help consists of:• Definitions and Interpretation Examples• Benefits and Limitations• Glossary



• Serves user educational purposes: – Conveys visualization of probabilistic forecast– Supplements outlook with historical climate

reference information



• Contains user interaction component: – continuous customer feedback

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-06

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New Local Customer Needs

• Climate Change: Information, Local impacts– Western Governors Association – California Water Resources– Alaska oil companies; wild life management

• El Nino / La Nina: Information, Local impacts– Canaan Valley, West Virginia, 2004 Congressional

Request– Water Resources Management– Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center (PEAC)


NWS Climate Change Guidance to Local Users

• NWS mission does not include projections of climate change for the future decades: maximum lead of NWS climate outlooks is 12.5 months for 3 month average temperature or total precipitation

• NWS local staff is able to provides different educational materials on local customers:– Fact sheets on Climate Change– Comprehensive summary on science of Global Climate Change– IPCC report facts

• NWS is committed to provide the best quality climate observation that can be used in local climate change assessments. Besides the raw data, available local and regional climate change products include:– Range of climate variability for climatology period and full records– Current rate of trends in climate variables– Impacts of other climate phenomena on trend adjusted climate variables

• Other NOAA line offices that provide information on climate change:– National Climatic Data Center– Earth System Research Laboratory– National Oceanographic Data Center– Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab


Rate of Local T/P Change

• Scientific justification for the product:– NCDC Data: local trend is preserved, while

artificial step changes have been removed– Methodology peer reviewed (Livezey, et al.,

2007) – Predictability is currently being tested


Rate of Local T/P Change• Although using a simple linear model, hinge reduces

sampling error by: • Anchoring line on previous to 1976 observations (Hinge)• Expressed in variable units per decade or per 30 years:

– 60 years range 48°F to 58°F, current rate of rise 1.7°F/10 years

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1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

Data Trend


Rate of Change Regional versus Local


3 Month Outlook of Local El Nino / La Nina Impacts

• Based on composite analysis • On trend adjusted data• With significance test to avoid sampling error

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Eastern North Dakota Temperature (°F)

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25

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.30 1941,1958,1966,

1973,1983,1987,1988,1992,1995,1998

Eastern North Dakota Temperature (°F)


3 Month Outlook of Local El Nino / La Nina Impacts

• Forecast alters historical probabilities to forecast for Nino 3.4SST (Higgins,et al., 2004)

FORECAST USING CURRENT CPC Nino 3.4:FORECAST USING CURRENT CPC Nino 3.4:

CPC CURRENT ENSO FORECAST:CPC CURRENT ENSO FORECAST:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/sstcon34.txt

Nino3.4

Term

Warm Neutral Cold

Above 67% 33% 11%

Near 13% 53% 28%

Below 20% 14% 61%

P P P P P P Pca tegorysta tion

above even tsta tion

aboveN ino

near even tsta tion

nearN ino

below even tsta tion

belowN ino /

./

./

.* * *3 4 3 4 3 4

Example – ElNino with 7.5 month lead (forecast for JFM 2005):Example – ElNino with 7.5 month lead (forecast for JFM 2005):

NINO 3.4 INITIAL TIME 5 200X PROJECTION FRACTION Lead Mo BELOW NORMAL ABOVEJFM 7.5JFM 7.5 0.0800.080 0.3930.393 0.5270.527

49%0.67*0.5270.33*0.3930.11*0.08P

30%0.13*0.5270.52*0.3930.28*0.08P

21%0.2*0.5270.14*0.3930.61*0.08P

MiamiJFM,above

MiamiJFM,near

MiamiJFM,below

HistoricForecast alters historical probabilities to forecast for Nino 3.4 SST (Higgins, et al., 2004al ProbabilitiesNino 3.4. Forecast


3MOLEI Development


3MOLEI Beyond T / PNWS Local Offices Studies

PR Studies• Sea level change• Extreme precipitation events

AR Studies• Min/Max temperature and precipitation

CR Studies• Number of tornado days• Number of significant tornadoes in the north central U.S.

WR Studies• US SW river flow exceedance of flooding stage

ER Studies• 3MOLEI methodology test

SR Studies•Extreme events in the Florida dry season and their relationship to ENSO, PNA, AO and NAO•Major extratropical (ET) storms•Severe weather (Tornadoes)•Excessive rainfall and flooding•Drought and wildfire•Severe cold outbreaks


Summary• L3MTO implementation tested a new approach in

developing local climate products

• Needs of local users include information and impact on Climate Change and ENSO

• 3MOLEI implementation will include auxiliary product: Rate of Local T/P Change– Prototype stage testing is expected in May 2008

– Experimental release is expected in September 2008

• Local staff has been trained to provide climate services on new local products

• Local studies at WFO level raise local climate expertise and help to incorporate local user needs in identifying new climate variables for potential operational forecast products

NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD Multi-Faceted Services of New NWS Local Climate Products Marina Timofeyeva, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and NOAA.

Documents

local slide

noaa nws contributors

local users noaa nws

rate of local climate

local climate specificities

local users nws mission

local trend

local customers