DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT NATIONAL TRANSPORT NATIONAL TRANSPORT MASTER PLAN 2050 MASTER PLAN 2050 Presentation to Portfolio Committee Presentation to Portfolio Committee on Transport: on Transport: 4 May 2010 4 May 2010 NATMAP NATMAP – – Transport for 2050 Transport for 2050
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No Slide Title– Transnet providing infrastructure and freight services. Other infrastructure ... – Focus on strategic network (“roads of national importance”) – Elimination
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DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTDEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT
NATIONAL TRANSPORTNATIONAL TRANSPORT MASTER PLAN 2050MASTER PLAN 2050
Presentation to Portfolio Committee Presentation to Portfolio Committee on Transport:on Transport:4 May 20104 May 2010
NATMAP NATMAP –– Transport for 2050Transport for 2050
1. Introduction – what is NATMAP?2. Vision 20503. Transport – status quo4. South Africa – future scenarios5. Transport operations
• Passenger operations• Freight operations
6. Infrastructure7. Key financial, legal and institutional actions8. Critical projects9. Actions required from Portfolio Committee
1. Introduction – what is NATMAP?
NATMAP 2050
Project goal
• National Transport Master Plan (NATMAP) 2050“…to develop a dynamic, long term, sustainable land use /
multi-modal transportation systems framework for the development of networks infrastructure facilities, interchange termini facilities and service delivery”
• NATMAP to be:– Demand responsive to
• Socio-economic growth strategies, or• Any sectoral integrated spatial development plan
– An action agenda for the whole country until 2050
“By 2050, transport in South Africa will meet the needs of freight and passenger customers for accessible, affordable, safe, frequent, high quality, reliable, efficient and seamless transport operations and infrastructure.
“It will do so by continuously upgrading infrastructure and services ahead of demand, as well as in an innovative, flexible and economically and environmentally sustainable manner.
“Transport will support and enable government strategies, particularly those for growth development, redistribution, employment creation and social integration, both in South Africa and in the Southern African Region.”
Goals to support vision
1) To provide integrated land use and transport solutions2) To promote economic development3) To promote rural development giving priority to presidential
nodes4) To maximize the utilization of existing infrastructure facilities5) To maximize the economic return on investment in transport6) To promote integration of transport infrastructure and services7) To minimize the impact on the environment and reduce the
carbon-footprint of transport8) To provide energy-efficient transport, using energy sources that
are sustainable in the long term9) To provide affordable transport to end users, operators and
government
Goals to support vision
10) To provide transport that is equitable to all stakeholders11) To develop transport infrastructure that are meeting
international standards and are technologically sustainable
3. Transport – status quo
Road infrastructure
• Road infrastructure condition– SANRAL network generally good to fair– Provincial paved roads generally fair to poor– Huge maintenance backlog in some areas, e.g. coal
haulage area in Mpumalanga• Traffic usage
– Growth of traffic outstripped extension of paved network– Significant amounts of heavy traffic on roads
• Heavy vehicle overloading• Road safety issues, exacerbated by poor road
condition, absence of clear road marking etc.
Rail infrastructure
• Rail infrastructure condition– Heavy haul lines well maintained, good condition– Rest of network in fair condition; some lines however not
maintained • Rail network generally underutilised• Rolling stock is old• Rail gauge – SA use narrow gauge (outdated)• Institutional setup
• ACSA airports– 10 airports (including the 3 major international airports)– Generally good condition and service– Some airports are (or will be in near future) approaching
saturation, e.g. ORTIA and Cape Town• Ports & pipelines
– Port throughput is approaching capacity in some cases– Poor road access to some ports (e.g. roads to Durban and
Cape Town are severely congested)– Pipeline network at capacity; freight diverted to road. Busy
with NMPP
Some major challenges
• Infrastructure– Lack of expenditure on road maintenance– Overloading on roads– Condition of rail infrastructure (non-heavy haul lines)– Rail infrastructure management systems are ineffectual
(isolated systems, old or incomplete data)– Need to cater for growth in demand
• Road – high traffic growth• Rail – underutilisation• Ports – high growth in containers (Durban),
Some major challenges
• Operations– Monopoly control of rail transport (distorts charges)– Unsatisfied demand for rail taken up by road (less efficient)– Technical regulation of freight transport– Standard of public transport is declining– Customers are dissatisfied
4. South Africa – future scenarios
Demography and Economy
• Study performed by Global Insight and BMR on behalf of NATMAP 2050
• 3 scenarios investigated– Demographic scenarios
• High (centralised population, low HIV/Aids, higher international in-migration)
• Medium (migration levels similar to current trends, HIV/Aids assumptions of greatest likelihood)
• Low (decentralised population, high HIV/Aids)– Economic scenarios
• Also High (positive), Medium and Low (negative) variants
Demography and Economy
• Major findings– Population will grow from 47 million (2005) to about 60
million people by 2050• Significant migration to Gauteng and Western Cape, from
other provinces• EAP to increase from 19 million (2005) to 26 million (2050)• Unemployment to decrease from 38% (2005) to 8.5% (2050)
– GDP expected to grow between 5% and 6% per year
Land use
Energy
Oil scarcity is inevitable, the only question is when and by how much. All indications are that the time horizon is about 20 years, at which point the available fuel will have reduced to about 50% of what it is today.
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Peak oil projections
TRANSPORT INTERVENTIONS
Road based measures only
Road, rail and air based measures
Mode specific measures and
mode shifts
Move to new technologies
Well planned journey
Entirely sufficient
Not required Not required Not required
Taking the back roads
Insufficient Barely sufficient Not required Not required
• Development of integrated, high quality public transport– Linking all cities and towns of national significance– Consists of integrated PT network of primary and
secondary routes– Providing mobility and accessibility– Using optimal modal mix – mode appropriate to each
link/corridor– Accessed via high-quality modal transfer facilities– It is only a framework for further refinement– Extension of IRPTN’s of 12 cities– Phased development over time
• Loads (weighbridge network and enforcement strategy)• Vehicles (COR – roadside inspection)• Drivers (training and driver hours regulation) etc
• Rail and port freight– Reorganisation (see FILM proposals)– Open market, industry involvement– Develop customised rolling stock– Skills training (technical, operational and managerial)– Develop intermodal interfaces and facilities
Freight transport: rail demand
Freight transport: road demand
6. Infrastructure
Road infrastructure
Road: selected recommendations
• Road maintenance– Focus on strategic network (“roads of national importance”)– Elimination of backlog – about R50 billion– Periodic and routine maintenance – about R12 billion/year– (See proposals on funding)
• Promote public transport investment– Regional passenger rail network (take pax off road)– Develop public transport services on SPTN (increase vehicle
occupancy)• Priority bus or normal bus services
– (See passenger operations proposals)
Road: selected recommendations
• Capacity upgrades– Add lanes when roads reach LOS E (reported per province)
• New constructions / major upgrades– When feasible, in high economic centres (e.g. PWV routes in
Gauteng)– In isolated cases, in line with land use directives (e.g.
Makhado-Giyani-Phalaborwa-Mbombela-Richards Bay)
Rail: access to infrastructure
• NATMAP goal: maximise utilisation of existing infrastructure
• Current network only accessible to TFR & PRASA• Recommendation is that network is made accessible
to other operators to attract private initiative in service delivery and investment in rolling stock and infrastructure
• Recommend phased approach starting with ringfencing of rail operations
• Transnet branch line strategy first step in this direction
Rail infrastructure
• Vertical separation of infrastructure and operations– Recommend the immediate institution of rail infrastructure
owning entity (RIA) (similar to e.g. the road and airport modes)
• Will immediately take over branch lines and be responsible for concessioning third party operators on it
• Will immediately acquire concessioning experience to manage further rollout of modern rolling stock
• Will eventually absorb the entire lane network in the country and allow existing freight and passenger agencies, and third party operators, to operate on the network
Rail: standard gauge strategy
• Corridor analysis, formulated strategy to phase in standard gauge rail on 1435mm as an ultimate extension of Gautrain rail project
• Priority corridors for high speed rail– Moloto corridor– Durban Johannesburg corridor– Johannesburg Polokwane corridor– Johannesburg Cape Town corridor
Rail: 2050 plans
Rail: selected recommendations
• Need to introduce rail gauge strategy in phased approach (all new rail developments)
• Implementation of passenger rail initiatives– Funding for Moloto rail line– Feasibility studies for Durban Johannesburg, and Pretoria
Polokwane rail lines• Operations – provide access to private operators• Monitor, update plans in view of future developments:
– Green House Gasses– Supply of fuel and electricity– New coal projects in other countries– New ore development in other countries
Airports: ORTIA
• Current capacity of 24-28 mill p/a reached by 2015• At ultimate phase of master plan, ORTIA will have:
– 4 runways, with adequate taxiways and aprons– Midfield and existing passenger terminals– Improved road access and additional parking– Gautrain access– Cargo facilities, etc.
• Ultimate capacity of about 60 mill p/a
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2029 -Demand = Ultimate Capacity (at least 60 MPA)
Airports: Cape Town and King Shaka
• Cape Town International Airport– Current capacity 15 mill p/a, reached by 2018– Master plan being implemented (including replacement of
main runway, and construction of second runway)– Ultimate capacity of about 45 mill p/a,
reached by 2038• King Shaka International Airport
– Opened on 1 May 2010– Single runway system, initial capacity of about 7.5 mill p/a– Master plan for further development (including second
runway and terminal building)– Ultimate capacity of 45 mill p/a
reached by 2050
Airports: selected recommendations
• Capacity upgrades at airports– All airports evaluated for demand and capacity– Specified future developments (airside, landside) required
to cater for demand• New airport requirements
– Gauteng, at least one other major airport before 2050– Cape Town, estimated from 2040– Durban, estimated from 2050
Ports: capacity enhancement
Cape Town
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Ngqura
Ports: capacity enhancement
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DurbanBay of Natal
DurbanSouth
Richards Bay
Ports: Selected Projects
• Joint study by KZN DOT, National Ports Authority and ETA to choose location of container terminals– Durban Bayhead / Durban South / Richards Bay– Cape Town / Saldanha
• Container terminal expansion at priority sites• Detailed planning and implementation of ports
expansion need to be integrated with ITPs/IDPs of cities and PLTF of provinces to ensure that– Road and rail access is provided in time– Land is reserved– City development and land use opportunities are
maximised
Pipelines
• Major current developments– NMPP (to be completed December 2012)– Kendal Matola pipeline (expected completion within next
year)
7. Key financial, legal and institutional actions
FILM Issue Analyses Outcomes• Whilst NATMAP 2050 identified and analysed a number of ‘original’ issues,
these were frequently an exacerbation of FILM issues already identified as meriting resolution and reform in the White Paper of 1996 and MSA of 1999
– Institutional fragmentation hinders coherence and focus by DoT on policy formulation and strategic planning
– Application of a fair and equitable user-pay principle w.r.t “economic” infrastructure where economically justified and financially viable
– Inter-modality, multi-modal integrated economic regulation and system- wide mechanism to deliver large infrastructure investments
– Comprehensive and multi-tiered benchmark to link funding allocations to agreed national objectives and timelines
– Customer/user centricity, sustainable, stable and consistent funding– Unwinding of the unequal delivery legacy w.r.t access to passenger
transportation and cost recovery (MSA’s “Urban Passenger Vision for 2020 – Public Transport First”)
– Crowding-in the private sector– Firm-level efficiencies and systemic cross subsidization which
perpetuate poor operating practices
NATMAP 2050 FILM Strategies• SA is a developing economy responding both to socio-economic and basic
needs demand imperatives as well as economic global-village nations’ competition for finite transportation funding resources
• SA’s economy relies on competitively priced freight and passenger mobility to be globally competitive
• Fundamental to SA’s ethos in the funding of provision of transportation are equity, efficiency, adequacy and ease of administration & compliance
• Fiscal equivalence and scale is important, but when internalization of externalities require central provision, but diseconomies of large-scale operation call for local provision, the necessary condition for Pareto optimality is then of a size that minimizes unit costs
• Efficient pricing is mandatory, i.e., pricing should fully reflect all individual and long-term marginal social costs, with all external costs being internalized.
• Maximize utility of available and foreseeable availability of funding, institutional and management capacity
• Optimize “yield” i.t.o equitable provision of multi-modal transportation infrastructure and services, efficiently, adequately and within a productive taxation and user charge regime
• Homogenous and iterative economic regulation of all modes
NATMAP 2050 FILM Strategies• Raise financing efficiency through economic and multi-modal evaluation of
projects or/and programmes irrespective of the sphere of government that promotes/sponsoring or owns or in whose sphere of influence the investment may fall
• Rank all investment proposals against expressed policy and declared priority imperatives as articulated by national, provincial and local authority governments as well as “neutral” technical financial viability values – such as IRR or NPV and productivity gains. The evaluation must pay particular attention to any inter-, intra-modal cannibalistic effects of investments as well as resultant transfer of economic activity from one location to another – key is the resultant net gains to society as a whole
• Recoupment of “real costs” of infrastructure provision, whilst ensuring fair representation of user requirements, and raising the effectiveness and co- ordination of institutional interventions at all levels/spheres
• W.r.t capacity, the centralized Transportation Investment Clearing House (TICH) to provide multi-skilled professional services to evaluate all major investments envisaged, irrespective of sphere of government sponsoring any project/programme, mode or functional demand (freight or passenger)
• Institutional & Legislative follow-through
Proposed new institutions / legal reviews
• Multimodal Policy Forum in DOT• Transport Investment Clearing
House (TICH)• Provincial Transport Investment
Funds (PTIF’s)• Transport Economic Regulator (with
modal divisions)• Road Weight Distance Charging
Entity• Rail Infrastructure Agency
• National Planning and Implementation Act
• Enabling legislation for some new entities
• Changes to existing legislation• Review/alignment of Provincial
legislation
Changes to existing institutions
• Allow for more competition between operators (Transnet, PRASA and National Ports Authority)
• “Client” representation on agency boards (SANRAL & PRASA)• Expand portfolios and capitalise on successes of entities (i.e.
SANRAL & ACSA)• Improve effectiveness of entities (i.e Provincial Roads
Departments/Agencies)• Expand responsibilities for strategic policy provision of DOT (for
Rail, Aviation & Marine divisions)• Review responsibilities (i.e SA Maritime Safety Authority)• Re-organise DOT for Regulated Competition
Funding mechanism
• Infrastructure creation, expansion and rehabilitation capital investments– Public / fiscal appropriation– Access and user charges– Long-term PSP instruments – BOT, securitisation– Economic evaluation and lifecycle costing– Multi-modal integration– Institutional and management capacity provisions– Policy goal achievement prescription– Economic regulation
Funding mechanism
• Infrastructure operating expenditure– Right of access
• License fees that discriminate between commercial and private use, freight and passenger conveyance
• Environmental externalities recoupment according to degradation caused
“When you get your permit, you get to sit over here –
All planning, legal, institutional, passenger transport projects
8. Critical projects
Critical projects
• Gauteng– Upgrading of road infrastructure for better connectivity to
ORTIA – PWV15, K86 link, K88 link– Johannesburg Durban high speed passenger rail link– Primary modal transfer facilities at ORTIA, Joh CBD,
Pretoria CBD and Pretoria Station– Study for upgrading / expansion of K29 – Mabilongwe road
route / Johannesburg – Brits interprovincial road– Study for determining need for second major airport for
Gauteng– Construction and maintenance of class 2 routes in all
municipalities
Critical projects
• Limpopo– Pretoria Polokwane rail passenger link– Feasibility and project management for development of a
multi-modal logistics hub in Polokwane and OSBP in Musina
– Pre-feasibility: determination of aero-city concept, ICC and reposition of PIA
– Conceptual planning of a commuter service between Mokopane and Polokwane
– Construction of R33 between N1 intersection through Modimolle to Lephalale to improve development of east- west corridor
– Upgrade of R37 linking Burgersfort via Lydenburg to N4 corridor and Maputo
Critical projects
• Western Cape– Expand and upgrade the port of Saldanha– Doubling of Huguenot tunnel– Expansion of Cape Town port and upgrade road and rail
access to port– Feasibility study for a second airport near Cape Town
• Eastern Cape– Improved railing (standard gauge rail) between Port
Elizabeth (PE) and East London (EL)– Relocate some facilities from Port of PE to Port of Ngqura– Implementation of Wild Coast Meander route– EL freight bypass (R72) with Gonubie bridge
Critical projects• Mpumalanga
– Moloto rail passenger development– Upgrade of coal haulage network– Doubling of Overvaal tunnel– Rapid transit system along R40 corridor (pax rail)– Rapid transit system along N4 corridor (pax rail)
• Free State– Develop and Implement a Dry Grain/Maize Silo Strategic Gravel
Roads Upgrade Programme in order to Upgrade strategic Gravel roads that link dry grain producing farmers with dry Grain silos / elevators (all 5 Districts).
– Provincial Primary Intermodal Public Transport Facilities (Priority Bus) Harrismith & Bloemfontein)
• KwaZulu Natal– New Airport at King Shaka– Richards Bay Airport Upgrade– Upgrade and Expand Richards Bay Port– Upgrade and Expand Durban Port– Improve capacity of the coal line between Richards Bay -
Piet Retief– Feasibility study: Johannesburg - Durban High Speed Rail
Line– New Multi-Modal Pipeline (NMPP) between Durban and
Gauteng
Critical projects
• Northern Cape– Upgrade Rail Line Between Hotazel – Kamfersdam
(Kimberley)– Parking and Road improvements at Upington Airport – Kimberley Airport Terminal Upgrade– Develop primary modal transfer facilities at Upington,
Britstown and Kimberley
Critical projects
• North West – Upgrade N12 between Warrenton and Klerksdorp– Add capacity on N12: 1 lane per direction, Between
Potchefstroom and Klerksdorp – Develop primary modal passenger transfer facilities at
Mafikeng and Rustenburg – Develop secondary modal transfer facilities at Vryburg,
Ventersdorp, Klerksdorp, Brits and Potchefstroom – Develop a regional passenger rail system:N4 corridor