NJ Future Forum 2012 Flooding Robinson

Dr. David A. RobinsonProfessor, Dept. Geography

New Jersey State Climatologist

Panel onTreating Flooding as the “New

Normal” Redevelopment Forum 2012

New Jersey Future

March 9, 2012

Recent NJ Flooding:a weather/climate perspective

Summing up

1. Increased NJ precipitation of late- annual- extreme events?

2. Increased flooding of late 3. Beginning to experience a “new normal”? 4. Potential of future increases in:

precipitationextreme eventsflooding

A precipitation rich state……

……most often

Spruce Run Reservoir: March 2002

Pinelands:May 2007

However sometimestoo little……

Delaware River: November 1963

Too often oflate too much

Irene rainfall:station

observations

Irene: NJ riverflooding

Manville, NJ

Lincoln Park, NJ

Paterson, NJ

Kinnelon, NJ

Manville, NJ: August 28, 2011 (2PM EDT)

Again and again and again...............

Millstone River,Manville, NJ

September 17, 1999

April 16, 2007

March 14, 2010

Peak Annual Flow Raritan

Delaware River

Easton-PhillipsburgBridge: June 2006

Easton, PA, August 1955

Trenton train station, September 23, 1882

September 2004

Peak Annual Flow Delaware

PassaicBasin

March2011

Peak Annual Flow Passaic

Rising temperatures

Steady or increasing precipitation

Increasing variability and extremes- storms, flood, drought, heat…….

Rising sea level

New Jersey's future climate

Warmer↓

MoreEvaporation

Warmer↓

MorePrecipitation

NJ Weather & Climate Networkht

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Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow (CoCoRaHS) network:

http://cocorahs.org

Summing up

1. Increased NJ precipitation of late- annual- extreme events?

2. Increased flooding of late 3. Beginning to experience a “new normal”? 4. Potential of future increases in:

precipitationextreme eventsflooding

Thank you

http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim