1 Rethinking Agriculture in a Changing Climate Rethinking Agriculture in a Changing Climate Nina V. Fedoroff Science and T echnology Advis er to the U. S. Secretary of State and to the Admi nistrator of USAID Nina V. Fedoroff Science and T echnology Advis er to the U. S. Secretary of State and to the Admi nistrator of USAID www.nndb.com/people/250/000024178/malthus.jpg www.nndb.com/people/250/000024178/malthus.jpg Thomas Malthus Thomas Malthus http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:An_Essay_on_the_Princi ple_of_Popul ation.jpg http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:An_Essay_on_the_Princi ple_of_Popul ation.jpg Concerns about food security are not new…… Concerns about food security are not new……
Dr Nina Fedoroff's presentation on boosting agriculture and developing genetically engineered crops
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Rethinking Agriculture in a Changing ClimateRethinking Agriculture in a Changing Climate
Nina V. Fedoroff
Science and Technology Adviser to the U. S. Secretary of State
and to the Admi nistrator of USAID
Nina V. Fedoroff
Science and Technology Adviser to the U. S. Secretary of State
and to the Admi nistrator of USAID
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Thomas MalthusThomas Malthus
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Concerns about food security are not new……Concerns about food security are not new……
Stott et al, Nature 432:610 (2004)Stott et al, Nature 432:610 (2004)
Increasing global temperatures Increasing global temperatures
Slide courtesy of Dr. David BattistiSlide courtesy of Dr. David Battisti
Impact of climate change on crops Impact of climate change on crops
2003
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Projections use 22 climate models (IPCC AR4) forced by A1B Emiss ion scenario.
Variability taken from observations
Projections use 22 climate models (IPCC AR4) forced by A1B Emiss ion scenario.
Variability taken from observations
Slide courtesy of Dr. David BattistiSlide courtesy of Dr. David Battisti
Projected growing season temperatures Projected growing season temperatures
Battisti and Naylor 2008Battisti and Naylor 2008
Projected growing season temperatures Projected growing season temperatures
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Schlenker and Roberts 2009, PNASSchlenker and Roberts 2009, PNAS
The relationship between temperature and crop yield The relationship between temperature and crop yield
A third of the world’s population already lives in drylandsA third of the world’s population already lives in drylands
Slide courtesy of Dr. Avigad Vonshak, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the NegevSlide courtesy of Dr. Avigad Vonshak, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev
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QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this pic ture.
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this pic ture.
Water scarcity will increase in many populous placesWater scarcity will increase in many populous places
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this pic ture. Slide courtesy of Dr. David Molden, International Water Management InstituteSlide courtesy of Dr. David Molden, International Water Management Institute
What will be MORE abundant? What will be MORE abundant?
What will be LESS abundant? What will be LESS abundant?
The shape of the futureThe shape of the future
What does that mean? What does that mean?
Today’s crops will not suffice for tomorrow’s worldToday’s crops will not suffice for tomorrow’s world
� Energy� Energy
� Fresh water� Fresh water
� Arable land� Arable land
� People (demand)� People (demand)
� Desert� Desert
� Heat� Heat
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What will it take to adapt agriculture to climate
change?
What will it take to adapt agriculture to climate
change?
� Conventional breeding for tolerance to heat, drought, salinity� Conventional breeding for tolerance to heat, drought, salinity
� Molecular modification for tolerance to heat, drought, salinity� Molecular modification for tolerance to heat, drought, salinity
� Out-of-the-box thinking: new crops, new methods, new systems � Out-of-the-box thinking: new crops, new methods, new systems
d e c o m p r e s s o ra r e n e e d e d t o s e e t h is p ic t u r e .
Q u ic k T im e ™ a n d a
d e c o m p r e s s o ra r e n e e d e d t o s e e t h is p ic t u r e .
International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), Aleppo, SyriaInternational Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), Aleppo, Syria
Q uickTime™ and a decompressorare needed t o see t his pict ure.
Q uickTime™ and a decompressorare needed t o see t his pict ure.
1 kg wheat – 500-2000 liters of water1 kg wheat – 500-2000 liters of water
1 kg fish – 10 liters of water1 kg fish – 10 liters of water
Water requirements of food cropsWater requirements of food crops
Adapted from Dr. Avigad Vonshak, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the NegevAdapted from Dr. Avigad Vonshak, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev
1 kg beef – 5000-20,000 liters of water!1 kg beef – 5000-20,000 liters of water!
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13 km Seawater River
Seawater Farms Bahia Kino
Photo courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater FoundationPhoto courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation
Integrated aquaculture and saline agricultureIntegrated aquaculture and saline agriculture
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Integrated aquaculture and saline agricultureIntegrated aquaculture and saline agriculture
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Photos courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater FoundationPhotos courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation
Integrated aquaculture and saline agricultureIntegrated aquaculture and saline agriculture
Integrated aquaculture and saline agricultureIntegrated aquaculture and saline agriculture
Photos courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater FoundationPhotos courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation
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Rethinking Agriculture in a Changing ClimateRethinking Agriculture in a Changing Climate
Nina V. Fedoroff
Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretar y of State
and to the Admi nistrator of USAID
Nina V. Fedoroff
Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretar y of State