Nile Basin Conflict And Its Commercial Impact Mahmoud ElMassry Tarek El Rayes Ahmed Abd Tawab Dalya Nayal.

Nile Basin Conflict And Its Commercial Impact

Mahmoud ElMassry

Tarek El Rayes

Ahmed Abd Tawab

Dalya Nayal

Agenda

•Why the concern?•Basic Basin Facts•Riparian Countries•Legal Situation•Ethiopian Hurdles•Egyptian Vision • Status-Quo•Egyptian-Comesa Trade•Commercial & Political Impacts•How To Avoid War•Evaluation

Basic Basin Facts:

•Nile is world’s longest river—4,145 miles.•10 African countries where the River Nile passes.•North is the White Nile from Lake Victoria in Kenya.• Passes through Uganda to Sudan where it meets the Blue Nile at Khartoum. •Then continue to the river, flows north towards Egypt.•The Nile Basin covers an area of 3.4 million km ².•Egypt acquires 87 percent of its water from the river.

Riparian Countries•Ten riparian countries; most important Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Uganda.

•Others are Kenya, Tanzania, Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, and Eritrea.

•95 percent of Egyptians live in Nile Valley and depend on river for fresh water.

•Nile water is life or death issue for Egypt.

•Nile is also crucial for Sudan.

•86 percent of water reaching Aswan comes from Ethiopia.

•14 percent arrives via White Nile from Uganda and southern riparian states.

Legal Situation:•Historically, Egypt and Sudan determined Nile water allocations.

•1929 agreement between Egypt and UK gave Egypt 84 billion cubic meters annually and Sudan 4 billion cubic meters.

•1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan allocated 55.5 billion cubic meters (three quarters) to Egypt and 18.5 billion cubic meters (one-quarter) to Sudan.

•No other riparian signed 1929 and 1959 agreements.•Egypt has been confident for many years that the Conventions of 1929 and 1959.

•Many Trails done by the these countries to reach an agreement concerning the Nile water but they failed till now.

•In February-February 1999 was signed between the Nile Basin Initiative of the ten Nile Basin countries, in order to strengthen regional cooperation (a socio - social) between these countries.

Ethiopian Hurdles

•Ethiopia was excluded from 1929 & 1959 agreements .

•By 2025 population will reach 122 M .

•No agricultural development as there no beneficiary of Nile water

Egyptian Vision

•Egypt was insisting on the concept of technical cooperation with NBC as a key principal .

•70’s Egypt tried to form an non official group called UNDOGO with the NBC (Ethiopia Refuse it)

•Egypt joined what was called TechoNile on December 1992

•Egypt Joined the common vision initiative by the world bank ‘’98’’

Status-Quo

•Entebbe agreement between NBC put an end to the common vision initiative .

•Egypt declared that it will not recognize this agreement .

•Sudan declared its withdrawal from the common vision initiative. •Egypt Trying to smooth its relations with Ethiopia .

Egyptian-Comesa Trade

•Officially Our Trade with Africa is very limited.

•Trade with NBC is not an exceptional case.

•Since our participation in Comesa on 29-6-1998.

•Egyptian export with COMESA represents 3.8% whereas its 38.5% with EU ** 2006 figures

Commercial & Political Impacts

•8 out of 19 COMESA members are NBC .

•Four of those 8 countries signed an agreement in June, 2010 seeking more water from the River Nile ‘’ Entebbe’’.

•Egypt still opposing this agreement .

•In addition to the objective weakness in our COMESA trade the last development with the 4 NBC members in COMESA will negatively contribute in worsening our trade with them .

How To Avoid War

•Riparian countries have taken important steps to minimize conflict.

•Created several organizations to resolve problems cooperatively.

•Most important is Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), regional partnership of riparians.

•World Bank coordinates International Consortium for Cooperation on the Nile (ICCON), which promotes Financing for cooperative water resource development.

•Countries with significant hydroelectric power potential could sell power to Sudan and Egypt

Evaluation

Nile conflicts and its impacts reflects :-

a)The Egyptian Nile policy is not an abortive one its a reaction type one .b)The Political & Economical tendency of Egypt is toward the north not the south c)The foreign policy of Egypt is not unique or solid enough to maintain the basic interest of the Egyptian people

Thank You