Niels Keijzer PCD focal points meeting OECD, 9 February 2012 Promoting Policy Coherence for Development Exploring new opportunities for measurement.

Niels KeijzerPCD focal points meeting

OECD, 9 February 2012

Promoting Policy Coherence for Development

Exploring new opportunities for measurement

• 2007: Joint-evaluation of EU mechanisms promoting Policy Coherence for Development

• What impact of mechanisms?  changed  sector policies, improved  reporting  on  PCD,   increased  levels  of  awareness…no common view

• “In  the  absence  of  a  clearly  stated  view  of  what  type  and  level  of  impact is  realistic  to  seek  to  achieve,   it  will  be  hard  to  formulate  clear  result-oriented  action  plans  and  progress  will  continue  to  be  hard  to   measure.”

A blast from the past?

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• …PCD objectives.• Existing objectives are process- instead of

result-oriented (i.e. “taking into account”, “creating mechanisms”, …)

• What is needed is managing expectations:• Baseline: what are the effects of policy X on

developing countries today?• Objectives: how should the effects of policy

X have changed by year Y?• Next step: how to know whether this

happens? (i.e. defining indicators and information needs)

One can only measure progress to PCD objectives if one has…:

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• Setting PCD objectives and then measure effects?

• Or measure first to be able to better define objectives?

• … low investments in research and measurement partly explain the limited progress in clarifying objectives

• Some issues worth further exploring for measurement relate to what is measured, how it is done, and who does it

Chickens and Eggs?

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• Inputs (actions, opportunities): direct actions and inputs, e.g. a decision to review a policy, a new mechanism [e.g.: review of the EU’s fisheries policy]

• Outputs (changes in policies): actual changes in policies, or changes at the policy implementation level [e.g.: stricter human rights conditions in fisheries agreements]

• Outcomes (‘effects’ in developing countries): what has 'changed' in developing countries and does it have anything to do with the policies? [e.g.: decreased overfishing in LDCs]

Once objectives are set, indicators could be formulated at these levels

What to measure?

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1. Before (Ex-ante): analysing economic, environmental and social effects of proposed policy, outlines potential synergies and trade-offs

2. After (Ex-post): evaluations addressing PCD, either commissioned by the leading ministry or as part of development cooperation evaluation

3. Continuous (programming and monitoring): Country Strategy Papers for development cooperation can identify key policies, monitoring can be done at HQ and/or field level

How to measure? Types and timing

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• Theory-based, or use existing data, or gather new data

• Data can be quantitative or qualitative• Currently insufficient research, hence (?)

discussions on PCD mainly stress the ‘mission impossible’ aspect

• Causal chains are complex (a change in policy in an OECD country having something to do with well-being of farmers in country X), best use a mix of methods

• Better operationalisation of development objectives also needed (what is ‘contributing to poverty reduction’?)

How to measure? (2)

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• Ongoing: preparation of the OECD strategy on development, exploration of country case studies by the DAC, and attempts to make progress at national level (SE, NL, IE)

• EC has made tentative progress in impact assessments looking at effects of policy options on developing countries (e.g. agriculture, fisheries)

• The CDI has been active since 2003, NGOs like Fairpolitics EU invest in case studies

• ECDPM is doing a study for BMZ and DGIS to explore next steps for PCD monitoring and comparisons between countries

Who does the measuring?

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• Getting the overview: which countries have invested in specific studies or are trying to get a national monitoring process going?

• Who (pays)? Line ministries (referee + player?), development ministry (PCD police?), independent evaluation body (e.g. UK or SE)?

• Unclear PCD results: how do OECD members justify investments?

• Can the DAC peer-reviews be improved to ensure a more detailed analysis of the results of PCD efforts (now process-oriented), e.g. in the field studies?

• Busan outcome document: will the new Global Partnership for Effective Development Cooperation work on this?

Questions for discussion

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European Centre for Development Policy Management (ECDPM)

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