National Fertilizer Development Centre (NFDC) Street No. 1, Sector H-8/1, Islamabad1 KHARIF FERTILIZER SITUATION: MID SEPTEMBER 2009 AND OUTLOOK FOR RABI 2009-10 Executive Summary 1. CUMULATIVE OFFTAKE FOR KHARIF 2009 (APRIL-AUGUST) Cumulative Kharif 2009, (April-August) total nutrient offtake was 1,843 thousand tonnes, which showed an increase of 52.1 per cent over the same timeframe of Kharif 2008. Total nitrogen offtake went up by 30.3 per cent an d phosphate by 298.3 per cent. However, potash witnessed a downward trend. Urea offtake was about 2,646 thousand tonnes, which increased by 20.3 per cent, while DAP offtake was 718 thousand tonnes, which also went up by 471.4 per cent over Kharif 2008. 2. SUPPLY/DEMAND SITUATION DURING AUGUST, 2009 Total nutrient offtake during August, 2009 was about 449 thousand tonnes, which recorded an increase of 86.5 per cent over August 2008. Nitrogen offtake increased by 54.4 pe r cent and phosphate by 406.6 per cent. Potash offtake decreased by 54.8 percent. Urea offtake during August 2009 was 598 thousand tonnes, which went up by 42.2 per cent over August 2008. DAP offtake was about 205 thousand tonnes, as compared to 24 thousand tonnes of August 2008. 3. FERTILIZER PRODUCTION AND IMPORTED SUPPLIES Imported supplies during August were 334 thousand tonnes comprising 180 thousand tonnes ofurea, 153 thousand tonnes of DAP and 1 thousand tonne of TSP. Production of all fertilizer products during August was about 603 thousand tonnes: Urea 453 thousand tonnes, DAP 59 thousand tonnes, CAN 36 thousand tonnes, NP 36 thousand tonnes and SSP 18 thousand tonnes. The production of NPK’s blends has been recorded only about one thousand tonnes. 4. PRICE TREND Domestic: Average prices of nitrogenous fertilizers like urea, CAN and AS decreased while that of phosphatic products increased with the highest increase recorded in price of DAP by 5.2 percent. Price of SOP also witnessed increase by 2 percent. International: Urea prices firmed up and were quoted at US $ 235-265/t fob bulks Yuzhny against 240-260/t of previous month. Arabian Gulf bagged urea reached a level of US$ 283- 290/t. DAP prices during August were in the range of US $ 305-325/t fob bulk in US Gulf and US $ 320-330/t fob in Jordan. MAP fob bulk prices were US $ 305-330/t, TSP US $ 230-235/t and SOP US$ 1130/t. 5. WEATHER SITUATION During the month of August 2009 seasonal low rainfall remained well marked over Baluchistan and adjoining Sindh. Monsoon currents were not very active consequently below normal precipitation reported in most parts of the country. Under the influence of monsoon systems, moderate to heavy rains/thunderstorm were reported from Azad Jammu Kashmir, northern areas, Balakot, Faisalabad, Kamra and Rawalpindi divisions. Monsoon incursions over Sindh and costal belt were also less frequent resulting into below than normal precipitations in this area, as well. Major Kharif crops in the field were cotton, rice, maize and groundnut which were in the reproductive stage of development. Weather induced problems were reported from different parts of the country during the month of August, 2009. The floods due to rains damaged the cotton, sugarcane and chilies crops in Punjab and some districts of NWFP. The Kharif crops were growing normally elsewhere in the country.
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KHARIF FERTILIZER SITUATION: MID SEPTEMBER 2009 AND
OUTLOOK FOR RABI 2009-10
Executive Summary
1. CUMULATIVE OFFTAKE FOR KHARIF 2009 (APRIL-AUGUST)
Cumulative Kharif 2009, (April-August) total nutrient offtake was 1,843 thousand tonnes, whichshowed an increase of 52.1 per cent over the same timeframe of Kharif 2008. Total nitrogenofftake went up by 30.3 per cent and phosphate by 298.3 per cent. However, potash witnessed adownward trend. Urea offtake was about 2,646 thousand tonnes, which increased by 20.3 percent, while DAP offtake was 718 thousand tonnes, which also went up by 471.4 per cent overKharif 2008.
2. SUPPLY/DEMAND SITUATION DURING AUGUST, 2009
Total nutrient offtake during August, 2009 was about 449 thousand tonnes, which recorded anincrease of 86.5 per cent over August 2008. Nitrogen offtake increased by 54.4 per cent andphosphate by 406.6 per cent. Potash offtake decreased by 54.8 percent. Urea offtake duringAugust 2009 was 598 thousand tonnes, which went up by 42.2 per cent over August 2008. DAPofftake was about 205 thousand tonnes, as compared to 24 thousand tonnes of August 2008.
3. FERTILIZER PRODUCTION AND IMPORTED SUPPLIES
Imported supplies during August were 334 thousand tonnes comprising 180 thousand tonnes of urea, 153 thousand tonnes of DAP and 1 thousand tonne of TSP. Production of all fertilizerproducts during August was about 603 thousand tonnes: Urea 453 thousand tonnes, DAP 59thousand tonnes, CAN 36 thousand tonnes, NP 36 thousand tonnes and SSP 18 thousand tonnes.The production of NPK’s blends has been recorded only about one thousand tonnes.
4. PRICE TREND
Domestic: Average prices of nitrogenous fertilizers like urea, CAN and AS decreased whilethat of phosphatic products increased with the highest increase recorded in price of DAP by 5.2percent. Price of SOP also witnessed increase by 2 percent.
International: Urea prices firmed up and were quoted at US $ 235-265/t fob bulks Yuzhnyagainst 240-260/t of previous month. Arabian Gulf bagged urea reached a level of US$ 283-290/t. DAP prices during August were in the range of US $ 305-325/t fob bulk in US Gulf andUS $ 320-330/t fob in Jordan. MAP fob bulk prices were US $ 305-330/t, TSP US $ 230-235/tand SOP US$ 1130/t.
5. WEATHER SITUATION
During the month of August 2009 seasonal low rainfall remained well marked over Baluchistanand adjoining Sindh. Monsoon currents were not very active consequently below normalprecipitation reported in most parts of the country Under the influence of monsoon systems
The Kharif situation in respect of major fertilizer products Urea and DAP appears to besatisfactory right now. The left over of this season will be transferred to next season that will helpmeet the requirements of the coming Rabi 2009-10.
7. OUTLOOK FOR RABI 2009-10
Keeping in view the expected left over of Kharif 2009 and domestic production and importedsupplies, the urea availability will be around 2500 thousand tonnes against the demand of 3000thousand tonnes. Hence, timely import of about 600 thousand tonnes would be needed for Rabi
2009-10. As far as phosphatic fertilizers are concerned, the projected offtake of the DAP is 850thousand tonnes against the 962 thousand tonnes of availability (production and imports), thusthe situation appears to be satisfactory. Other phosphatic fertilizer products like MAP, TSP, NPand SSP will also be available to supplement the DAP availability.
KHARIF FERTILIZER SITUATION: MID SEPTEMBER 2009 AND
OUTLOOK FOR RABI 2009-10
1. INTRODUCTION
The fertilizer supply/demand situation during August 2009, along-with Kharif 2009 and Rabi
2009-10, have been analyzed. The report also contains domestic retail and international fertilizerprices of the major products; namely Urea, DAP, TSP, SOP and MAP. Brief on weather has alsobeen presented.
2. CUMULATIVE FERTILIZER OFFTAKE DURING KHARIF 2009
(APRIL-AUGUST)
The fertilizer use in Kharif is almost over. The provisional cumulative nutrient offtake during Kharif 2009(April-August) was about 1,843 thousand nutrient tonnes, which represented an increase of 52.1 per centover the same timeframe of the last year. Of this, nitrogen offtake was 1,434 thousand tonnes, phosphateabout 403 thousand tonnes and potash only 6.4 thousand tonnes (Table-1).
Consolidated data in Table 1 reveal that cumulative urea and DAP offtake during Kharif 2009 was 2,646thousand tonnes (20.3 per cent over Kharif 2008) and 718 thousand tonnes (471.4 per cent over Kharif 2008) respectively.
Table 1. Cumulative Fertilizer offtake during Kharif 2009 versus Kharif
Table 2. Fertilizer offtake during August, 2009 compared with previous years
('000 tonnes)
Nutrient/ August August August August AugustPer cent
change in 2009Product 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Over 2008
Nitrogen 244 196 242 215 332 54.4
Phosphate 62 22 45 23 116 406.6
Potash 2 1 2 3 1 -54.8
Total 308 219 290 241 449 86.5
Urea 452 383 464 421 598 42.2
DAP 103 32 77 24 205 737.3Note:- Details are presented in Annex 1 and 2
4. FERTILIZER PRODUCTION AND IMPORTED SUPPLIES DURING
AUGUST 2009
Table 3 shows the production and imported supplies during the August 2009. Total production of all products were about 603 thousand tonnes comprising 453 thousand tonnes of Urea (75 % of the total production), 59 thousand tonnes of DAP, 36 thousand tonnes of NP, 36 thousand tonnesof CAN, 18 thousand tonnes of SSP and one thousand tonnes of blends of various grades of NPK.About 334 thousand tonnes of fertilizers were supplied in the market through import.
Table 3. Fertilizer production and imported supplies during August 2008
(‘000 tonnes)
Description Urea DAP NP CAN SSP NPKs SOP MOP MAP TSP Total
Table 4. Province-wise urea and DAP offtake during August 2009 compared with previous years
(‘000 tonnes)Province August August August August August Per cent change
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
in 2009 over2008
Urea
Punjab 272.7 263.4 278.1 265.6 418.3 57.5
Sindh 137.9 72.2 127.6 117.0 129.9 11.0
NWFP 23.9 31.7 31.4 24.3 33.3 37.0
Balochistan 17.9 16.1 27.4 13.6 16.7 22.7
Total 452.4 383.5 464.5 420.5 598.2 42.2
Per cent change -15.2 21.1 -9.5 42.2
over previous year
DAP
Punjab 77.9 18.1 45.0 17.5 114.4 552.2
Sindh 20.2 9.6 22.8 5.4 69.9 1194.9
NWFP 3.1 1.5 5.0 1.3 12.7 844.9
Balochistan 1.6 2.7 4.6 0.2 7.8 4390.2
Total 102.8 32.0 77.3 24.5 204.7 737.3
Per cent change -68.9 141.5 -68.4 737.3over previous year
Details are presented in Annex 7,8&9.
6. SUPPLY DEMAND SITUATION DURING AUGUST 2009
6.1. Urea
Total urea availability during August 2009 was about 741 thousand tonnes, which comprised 109thousand tonnes of previous month leftover, 453 thousand tonnes domestic production and 180 thousandtonnes imported supplies (Table 5). Urea offtake during August 2009 was 598 thousand tonnes withclosing balance of 143 thousand tonnes.
Table 5. Urea and DAP supply/demand situation during Kharif 2009
('000 tonnes)Description APR* MAY* JUN* JUL* AUG* SEP** TOTAL
UREA
Opening inventory 38 76 102 103 109 143 38
Imported supplies 66 52 116 183 180 108 705
Domestic production 397 441 430 442 453 430 2,592
Total availability 501 569 648 727 741 681 3,335
Offtake 422 466 543 618 598 550 3,197
Write off/on -2 -1 -2 -1- -
-7
Estimated inventory 76 102 103 109 143 131 131
DAP
Opening inventory 204 246 209 147 77 86 204
Imported supplies 41 1 27 109 153 171 502
Domestic production 51 56 53 47 59 55 322
Total availability 296 303 290 303 290 312 1,029
Offtake 49 95 143 226 205 100 818
Write off/on -1 1-
0- -
0
Estimated inventory 246 209 147 77 86 212 212
*Actual ** Estimated.
7. SITUATION IN KHARIF 2009
A picture of fertilizer situation during current Kharif season is presented in table 5, which isalmost to over. The data confirm 3,335 thousand tonnes urea availability comprising 705thousand tonnes of imported supplies and 2,592 thousand tonnes of domestic production against3,197 thousand tonnes demand. Similarly 1029 thousand tonnes DAP is available to meet thedemand of 818 thousand tonnes. Therefore the situation remains generally comfortable.
8. OUTLOOK FOR RABI 2009-10
Table 6 presents an outlook for Rabi 2009-10. The figures are based on estimates of domesticproduction, demand forecasts by NFDC and lined up imports reported internationally as well asdi d i th F tili R i C itt ti h ld A t 18 2009
DAP is needed to meet demand during Rabi. Other complimentary products such as MAP, SSP,NP and TSP would also be available in the market to meet the emerging demand.
Table 6. Urea and DAP supply/demand situation during Rabi 2009-10 (Estimated)
Average prices of urea decreased in the range of 3.7 to 4.1 percent from Rs. 797 to 757 per 50 kgbag. Price of CAN and AS also decreased, however, prices of all the phosphatic and potash
products increased.
9.2. International prices
Fertilizer prices for urea, DAP, TSP, MAP and SOP in the international market during August2009 are presented in Table 8. Urea Fob bulk yuzhny price in international market fluctuatedbetween US $ 235-265/t (US $ 240-260/t last month). While in Arabian Gulf, it was US $ 283-290 Fob bagged.
DAP prices during the month were in the range of US $ 305-325/t fob US Gulf, (US $ 285-295/tin July, 2009) while Jordan prices were in the range of US $ 320-330/t fob bulk. MAP, TSP andSOP prices remained at US $ 305-330, 230-235/t and 1130/t respectively during August 2009.
During August 2009, monsoon remained less active over NWFP, Potohar plateau and northernareas. Under their influence moderate to isolated heavy rains/thunderstorms were reported fromthe areas. In NWFP and northern areas in one or two districts reported floods which caused lifeand property losses. In plains of Punjab rainfall remained below normal except Faisalabad whereit remained above normal. In Baluchistan and Sindh provinces except Khuzdar district, monsoonrainfall in this month was recorded below normal.
Table 8. Rainfall data during August 2009 compared with August 2008
Rainfall (mm)
Station August August Per cent
2008 2009 change
Peshawar 9.6 43.8 356.3
Kamra 199.0 169.0 -15.1
Rawalpindi 225.2 202.4 -10.1
Jhelum 184.8 164.3 -11.1
Sargodha 68.0 54.8 -19.4
Lahore 68.4 92.0 34.5
D.I. Khan 31.5 58.6 86.0
Faisalabad 118.2 137.4 16.2
Multan 1.7 6.0 252.9
Khanpur 27.0 1.2 -
Quetta 7.0 0.6 -91.4Rohri 9.0 - -
Hyderabad 1.0 72.0 7100.0Source: National Agromet Centre, Islamabad.
Dated: September 17, 2009
ANNEXES
1. Month-wise nutrient offtake during Kharif 2009 compared with previous seasons.2. Month-wise urea and DAP offtake during Kharif 2009 compared with previous seasons.3. Month-wise nutrient offtake during year 2009-10 compared with previous years4. Month-wise urea and DAP offtake during year 2009-10 compared with previous years5 Pl i d i l d k i i (A 2009)