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Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 22 June 2015 - Issue No. 631 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Kingdom, Russia to invest up to $10b in joint fund SG/Agencies + NewBase Saudi Arabia's government and a Russian state fund have signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly invest as much as $10 billion, official Saudi news agency SPA said on Sunday. The deal between Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) and the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) was sealed last week when top Saudi officials visited Russia. The governments also agreed to cooperate on developing nuclear energy. SPA did not say where or when the joint investments would be made. The PIF was set up to help develop the Saudi economy, while the RDIF makes equity investments mainly in Russia and in the last few years has signed similar co-investment agreements with countries such as China, South Korea and Kuwait. Prince Saud K. Al Faisal, executive director for investment policy at the Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority, told Reuters in March that Saudi Arabia was increasingly focusing on investing to obtain technology and benefit its economy rather than just seeking monetary returns. Last week the PIF agreed to buy a 38 percent stake in South Korean builder POSCO Engineering & Construction Co for about $1.1 billion, in a deal that could transfer construction sector expertise to Saudi Arabia. POSCO E&C is one of the leading global engineering and construction companies that specializes in engineering and building industrial and energy facilities, infrastructure and urban development, and has several international branches in emerging markets. The agreement includes a commitment to proceed with strategic plans in Saudi Arabia, such as the establishment of a Saudi joint venture company in the field of engineering and construction. The engineering and construction sector is second only to the oil sector in respect of its financial contribution to the gross domestic product of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Recent studies suggest that the Kingdom plans to spend approximately $15 billion in the construction sector on strategic infrastructure projects this year, which highlights the size of this sector and its importance in creating sustainable economic development.
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Page 1: NewBase 631 special 22 june 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1

NewBase 22 June 2015 - Issue No. 631 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE

Kingdom, Russia to invest up to $10b in joint fund SG/Agencies + NewBase Saudi Arabia's government and a Russian state fund have signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly invest as much as $10 billion, official Saudi news agency SPA said on Sunday. The deal between Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) and the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) was sealed last week when top Saudi officials visited Russia. The governments also

agreed to cooperate on developing nuclear energy. SPA did not say where or when the joint investments would be made. The PIF was set up to help develop the Saudi economy, while the RDIF makes equity investments mainly in Russia and in the last few years has signed similar co-investment agreements with countries such as China, South Korea and Kuwait.

Prince Saud K. Al Faisal, executive director for investment policy at the Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority, told Reuters in March that Saudi Arabia was increasingly focusing on investing to obtain technology and benefit its economy rather than just seeking monetary returns. Last week the PIF agreed to buy a 38 percent stake in South Korean builder POSCO Engineering & Construction Co for about $1.1 billion, in a deal that could transfer construction sector expertise to Saudi Arabia. POSCO E&C is one of the leading global engineering and construction companies that specializes in engineering and building industrial and energy facilities, infrastructure and urban development, and has several international branches in emerging markets. The agreement includes a commitment to proceed with strategic plans in Saudi Arabia, such as the establishment of a Saudi joint venture company in the field of engineering and construction. The engineering and construction sector is second only to the oil sector in respect of its financial contribution to the gross domestic product of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Recent studies suggest that the Kingdom plans to spend approximately $15 billion in the construction sector on strategic infrastructure projects this year, which highlights the size of this sector and its importance in creating sustainable economic development.

Page 2: NewBase 631 special 22 june 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2

Saudi Arabia sees moderate business cycle in 2015, 2016 Saudi Gazette

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will face a moderate business cycle during 2015 and 2016, growing around 3% in real terms, the National Commercial Bank said in its “Saudi Economic Review” this

month. “ Our assumptions centered on lesser contribution from the oil sector and moderation in the non-oil sector,” it noted.

In 2015, the macroeconomic projections were based on an average Arabian Light crude oil price of $65/bbl and an average daily crude oil production level of 9.8 MMBD. Accordingly, this projected decline in oil prices will result in lower oil revenues, which will weigh negatively on the fiscal and current accounts that will register deficits of 11.7% and 3% out of GDP, respectively. Real GDP growth is expected to rise by 3.4%, due mainly to an expected growth in non-oil sector by 5.1%, driven by the private sector that will compensate for the insignificant contribution of oil. The key beneficiaries in 2015 will remain to be the

trade, construction and manufacturing sectors, growing at 7%, 6% and 6%, respectively. The projections for the three sectors are supported by the recent royal decrees, buoyant activity in the projects’ market and resilient business confidence. Notably, the series of royal decrees announced in January and April 2015 will provide favorable stimulus to the non-oil private sector, especially from the bonus payment of two salaries to all public sector employees. Ostensibly, the report said, the next five years might prove to be a challenging time for the Kingdom on the back of rangebound oil prices and slower growth in crude production, given the increased possibility of oversupply from OPEC and non-OPEC. The inflection toward fiscal deficits will weigh negatively on net foreign assets going forward, a situation that have materialized with the government drawing down around $45.5 billion in 2015 YTD. Chinese growth prospects, Federal Reserve monetary policy direction, Iran’s nuclear deal with the West are the most notable events that can pose risks to our crude oil prices and production forecasts whether to the upside or downside given the inherent volatility of oil markets. All is quiet on the monetary policy front, the report noted. Monetary policy in Saudi Arabia is exhibiting a high degree of stability and predictability compared to most emerging markets that suffer from structural deficiencies, which entangled their monetary policy in a balancing act between supporting economic growth and defending currencies. SAMA is mainly concerned these days with price stability and money supply dynamics. On a near-term note, with the Fed expected to raise its target funds rate by the end of the year and gradually thereafter, SAMA will follow suit by increasing the repo and reverse repo rates for the first time since 2009. Yet, it is our opinion that raising the reverse repo and repo rate will not tighten monetary conditions given the ample liquidity, evident from the 3- month interbank market that fell from around 96 bps in 2014 to as low as 77bps in 2Q 2015.

Page 3: NewBase 631 special 22 june 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3

Saudi Arabia, Russia sign nuclear power cooperation deal Reuters + NewBase

Saudi Arabia and Russia have signed an agreement to cooperate on nuclear energy development, a Saudi government body in charge of such projects said. The government body, the King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy, announced the cooperation deal on its website on Thursday but gave no further details.

Saudi-owned al-Arabiya TV, citing unnamed sources, said the kingdom planned to build 16 nuclear reactors in which Russia would play a significant role in operating them.

The Saudi atomic and renewable energy body has already signed nuclear cooperation deals with countries able to build reactors, including the United States, France, Russia, South Korea, China and Argentina.

It is not clear if this new deal will take cooperation with Russia to a more advanced level. In 2012, Saudi Arabia said it aimed to build 17 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear power by 2032 as well as around 41 GW of solar capacity. The oil exporter currently has no nuclear power plants.

Nuclear and solar power stations would reduce the diversion of Saudi Arabia’s oil output for use in domestic power generation, leaving more available for export.

The agreement envisages the formation of a coordination committee for further discussion on the uses of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, as well as the formation of joint working groups to carry out specific projects and research, the exchange of experts, the organization of seminars and workshops, assistance in education and the training of scientific and technical personnel, and the exchange of scientific and technical information.

In March, state-owned R&D companies from Argentina and Saudi Arabia set up a joint venture company, Invania, to develop nuclear technology for Saudi Arabia's nuclear power program. The foundation of Invania, between Taqnia of Saudi Arabia and Invap of Argentina, was announced by Argentina's federal planning ministry and Invap during a visit by the Saudi Arabian consultative assembly, the Shura Council. Invania was established under a nuclear cooperation agreement signed by the two countries in 2011.

Earlier the same month, Saudi Arabia and South Korea signed a memorandum of understanding that could enable at least two South Korean-designed SMART reactors to be built in Saudi Arabia. The two countries are to jointly promote the 330 MWt pressurized water reactor with integral steam generators and advanced safety features in the global market. They signed a cooperation agreement on the peaceful uses of nuclear energy in November 2011.

Although Saudi Arabia's nuclear program is in its infancy, the kingdom has plans to construct 16 nuclear power reactors over the next 20 years. A 2010 royal decree identified nuclear power as essential to help meet growing energy demand for both electricity generation and water desalination while reducing reliance on depleting hydrocarbon resources.

Page 4: NewBase 631 special 22 june 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4

India:Baharat Pet. to expand own refinery expansion Bloomberg + OmanTimes

Bharat petroleum, which holds 49 per cent stake in the project, provided the unbridged portion of the Rs 40-billion equity in form of loan. Photo – Bloomberg NewsIndian firm ready to go ahead with refinery expansion on its own

With Oman Oil Company (OOC) reluctant to put more money, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) has decided to fund the Rs180-200 billion expansion of the Bina refinery in Madhya Pradesh on its own.

Bharat Petroleum, India's second-biggest state refiner, plans to raise Bina refinery capacity to 15 million tonnes in two phases — to 7.8 million tonnes a year from current six million tonnes at a cost of Rs350 billion by 2018 and then to 15 million tonnes at an additional investment of Rs180-200 billion in 5-6 years. Oman Oil Company (OCC), which holds 26 per cent stake in the Bharat Oman Refineries (BORL) the firm that built the refinery, is willing to participate in the first phase expansion but not in the second phase, a top official said.

"We are close to firming up plan to go ahead with the second phase expansion on our own. BPCL will fund the project," he said. Oman Oil Company in 2009 paid a 50 per cent premium for a re-entry into the Rs11,397-crore Bina refinery project. The project was originally conceived through a joint venture company, BORL but the OCC did not contribute equity beyond the initial Rs750 million

The Omanese oil major came back to pick up 26 per cent stake in the project for an additional Rs12.20 billion. The BORL was formed as an equal joint venture company way back in 1993. However, following inordinate delays in the implementation of the project, OOC froze its investment in the company at Rs750 million for a two per cent equity stake.

BPCL, which holds 49 per cent stake in the project, provided the unbridged portion of the Rs 40-billionequity in form of loan. The state-run firm got its loan back once OOC made payments for its 26 per cent share.

The remaining 25 per cent is with financial institutions. BPCL also operates a 12 million tonnes a year refinery at Mumbai and 9.5 million tonnes Kochi unit. It also has majority stakes in the 3 million tonnes Numaligarh refinery in Assam.

The official said BPCL is expanding and upgrading its Kochi refinery in Kerala to process high sulphur crudes by 2016. Kochi refinery capacity is being raised to 15.5 million tonnes from current 9.5 million tonnes.

Crude grades with a high sulphur content are cheaper, and refineries that have installed speciality secondary units to process them can lower feed costs and increase their margins. Besides boosting margins with the upgrade and expansion, the refinery will also be able to produce fully Euro IV compatible petrol and diesel. Also, Numaligarh refinery capacity is being planned to be raised to 9 million tonnes.

Page 5: NewBase 631 special 22 june 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5

Indonesia pumping up its oil and gas industry with foreign investments GulfTimes + NewBase

Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, is trying to stimulate its decrepit oil and gas industry in an aim to feed the rapidly rising demand for fuel among its 240mn-population and its growing middle class. Latest news that the country is about to receive a whopping $7bn investment from Oman to build oil storage facilities, a petrochemical plant and a refinery is seen as just the beginning of a bigger drive to call for new tenders for oil and gas blocks and seek foreign investments into oil production and related facilities and into upgrades of the poor infrastructure in the sector.

The Oman investment is part of plans to raise national fuel output in Indonesia by state-owned oil and gas giant Pertamina, which operates almost all of Indonesia’s refinery capacity, from the current 1mn barrels per day (bpd), a volume far from accommodating domestic demand, to 2.3mn bpd through upgrades and additional plants, according to the country’s energy minister Sudirman Said. The refinery to be built in Indonesia’s Riau province will see its groundbreaking procedure in 2016 and its products will be purchased by Pertamina, Said added. Experts reckon that Indonesia’s energy industry needs a far larger number of new investments in both its exploration and refining sectors in order to significantly upgrade its energy capabilities. For example, Indonesia’s fuel output has suffered from a lack of investment in its refining sector since the construction of its last refinery was completed in 1994. According to data collected by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Indonesia’s energy consumption increased by 44% from 2002 to 2012, with petroleum accounting for the highest proportion of this increase. Despite its sizeable oil reserves, Indonesia shifted from being a net oil exporter to a net importer as early as in 2003 and even suspended its membership in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), in 2009, after joining in 1962. This exit was prompted by growing internal demand for energy, declining production and limited investment to increase capacity. The country’s poor infrastructure, together with its complex

Page 6: NewBase 631 special 22 june 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6

geographic structure, and a difficult regulatory environment have affected these investments in the past.

In 2012, 25 new oil and gas contracts were signed, but the number fell to 14 in 2013 and reached a low of seven in 2014. This year, things look a bit better. Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources in 2015 already awarded 13 new oil and gas blocks to the likes of ConocoPhilips, Shell, Total and Statoil with combined investment commitments of $155.8mn, and another 11 should follow. Pertamina said it plans to construct a $450mn crude oil terminal in East Kalimantan that will allow the company to blend its domestic crude oil with other grades of imported crude oil and act as an oil stock reserve for the country. As of latest figures of 2013, the lion’s share (26%) of Indonesia’s crude oil imports came from Saudi Arabia. The United Arab Emirates delivered 5% and Qatar 4%. Most of Indonesia’s own crude is exported to Japan, Thailand and Australia. Revenues from the oil and gas sector accounted for about one quarter of total state revenue.

Page 7: NewBase 631 special 22 june 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7

NuEnergy Gas Commences CBM Drilling in Indonesia

NuEnergy Gas Limited has commenced drilling for first coal bed methane exploratory well RE-CBM-01CE at the Rengat PSC tenement in Central Sumatra, Indonesia.

“Mobilisation of the rig commenced in early June for well RE-CBM-01CE which is located approximately 195 km South of Pekanbaru, Indonesia. The MCQ 700 fully hydraulic automated truck mounted rig is currently being used to drill to a depth of 495 meters.

The hydraulic rig will be mobilised to the second well, RE-CBM-02CE located 30 km southwest of RE-CBM-01CE upon completion of drilling,” the company said in a statement published Monday.

Rengat PSC covers 2,395km2 of Central Sumatra basin and lies in between prolific oil and gas concessions located in the Central Sumatra basin in the vicinity of a major gas pipeline from Jakarta to the Chevron Duri Steam Flood project and related infrastructure.

NuEnergy has a 100% working interest in Rengat PSC and is the operator of the PSC.

Page 8: NewBase 631 special 22 june 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8

Tanzania: Decision on $15 Billion LNG Project in Three Years Bloomberg + NewBase

Tanzania, holder of East Africa’s biggest natural-gas reserves after Mozambique, will decide on a $15 billion export plant in three years, potentially adding to a glut of supply projects from the U.S. to Australia.

Construction of the 10 million-ton-a-year liquefied natural gas plant would probably be complete around 2020, said Willington Hudson, a director at state-run Tanzania Petroleum Development Corp. BG Group Plc and Statoil ASA are still drilling the fields that would feed the plant, he said.

Discoveries in East Africa this decade have established the region as the newest gas province and raised the prospect of exports to world markets. While rival projects from North America to Australia promise to boost global shipments, BG and its peers in Tanzania and Mozambique are pressing ahead on the expectation demand will outstrip supply in the coming decades.

“You need to look at energy demand for the next 50 years,” Hudson, director for downstream operations, said in an interview in London. “Demand for gas will continue going up.”

Tanzania’s first offshore gas discovery was made in 2010. Since then a series of finds has expanded the country’s potential reserves to 55 trillion cubic feet, enough to meet about 11 years ofdemand from U.S. homes. Almost 90 percent of the resources are far out at sea, making extraction difficult, Hudson said.

Mozambique Plans

In Mozambique, Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and its partners are planning a 10 million-ton-a-year LNG export project with a target start date of 2018.

The East African plants will compete with projects in the U.S., where a boom in shale-gas production has driven down prices, and Australia, where the Queensland Curtis LNG complex plans to ramp up exports this year. Papua New Guinea has also started shipments abroad while projects are moving forward in Canada.

Page 9: NewBase 631 special 22 june 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9

Some LNG projects around the world will face delays or even cancellation, according to the International Energy Agency. Plants in Mozambique and Tanzania are unlikely to come on line by 2020 because of the “challenges” they face in a low oil and gas price environment, Costanza Jacazio, senior gas analyst at the IEA, said this month.

In Tanzania, the government has chosen the location of the proposed LNG plant, Hudson said, without giving more details pending an official announcement.

Regardless of export plans, Tanzania needs its gas to build gas-fired power stations and petrochemical plants, according to the director. Any surplus fuel can be sent to neighbors including Rwanda, Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

“If we have any extra gas, it will make more sense to use it locally and use it within the region,” Hudson said.“ We need the energy to power our own economy.”

Page 10: NewBase 631 special 22 june 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10

Norway approves development of giant Johan Sverdrup field Offshore Energy Today Staff

The Norwegian parliament has approved the plan for development of one of Norway’s largest oil discoveries in decades – the Statoil-operated Johan Sverdrup field in the North Sea.

“Johan Sverdrup is the start of a new chapter in Norwegian oil history,” said the country’s energy minister Tord Lien. He said the development would provide jobs and income“for our grandchildren too”.

“There is reason to be both proud and delighted,” the minister said.

Several major contracts related to the development of the Johan Sverdrup have already been awarded to Norwegian companies. Statoil on Monday awarded $558 million contract to Odfjell Drilling for drilling wells at the field.

Also, last week Norwegian contractor Kvaerner, together with KBR from the US, won a contract for the construction of the topside for the utility and living quarter platform at the Johan Sverdrup field. The contract has a value of $843 million.

Johan Sverdrup is one of the five biggest oil fields on the Norwegian continental shelf. With expected resources of between 1.7 – 3.0 billion barrels of oil equivalent, it will also be one of the most important industrial projects in Norway over the next 50 years. The Johan Sverdrup licensees are Statoil, Lundin Norway, Petoro, Det norske oljeselskap and Maersk Oil.

Page 11: NewBase 631 special 22 june 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11

Oil Price Drop Special Coverage

Oil prices unchanged as worries ease over Greek debt Reuters + NewBase

Oil prices were unchanged in Asian trade on today Monday 22nd June 2015, after initially falling on concerns about the outcome of a eurozone meeting later in the day on the Greek debt crisis , although worries about oversupply still weigh on the market.

Prices rebounded from early lows after a European Commission official tweeted the latest proposal from Greece was a "good basis for progress" in Monday's talks. "On a 24 hour basis we'll see some volatility depending on what happens with Greece," said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at Sydney's CMC Markets.

Brent crude for August delivery was flat at $63.02 a barrel as of 0442 GMT (0042 EDT), after dipping as much as 52 cents when Asian markets opened. The benchmark lost $1.24 in the previous session. Front month U.S. crude was at $59.58 a barrel, down 3 cents after finishing the previous session down 84 cents.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras offered a new reforms package to foreign creditors on Sunday in an effort to avoid default this month on 1.6 billion euros in debt repayments to the International Monetary Fund.

Worries over high domestic U.S. oil production, which has held around 9.6 million barrels a day - the highest level since the early 1970s, still weighed on oil prices, Spooner said.

Page 12: NewBase 631 special 22 june 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12

U.S. oil producers added a rig each in the Permian and Bakken shale basins last week, fuelling worries over high domestic oil output, even as the total number of active U.S. rigs fell last week, data on Friday showed.

"My expectation for a price increase is fairly limited," Spooner said. "One way or another we are likely to see some production cuts. If we did see prices go up then OPEC would increase production and/or U.S. producers would increase theirs as well."

Other analysts also continue to point to the overhang of supply in the market.

Ten million barrels of unsold crude - mainly from Nigeria - are held in offshore storage despite strong summer demand, Morgan Stanley said in a research note on Monday, posing a worrying outlook for oil in the second half of the year.

"If there are this many challenged cargoes in this strong demand environment, we worry about the outlook for physical oil this fall when crude runs and gasoline demand fall seasonally," the note said. And considering the prospects of new supply from Libya and Iran a lower price environment seems increasing likely, Morgan Stanley analysts said.

Iran and Iraq are Opec’s biggest wild cards The National + NewBase

Iran and Iraq have taken over from North American shale oil as the biggest wild card facing Opec and the world oil market in the year ahead, according to a number of leading market analysts.

New research by the Edinburgh oil consultancy Wood Mackenzie, for example, reckons that the combined additional production from the two countries could be running as much as 500,000 to 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) higher in the coming months.

On the other hand, the volatile conditions the two countries face mean output from the two could end up little changed, the consultancy adds. If the higher forecasts prove correct, the extra oil would significantly increase the surplus already swamping the market, according to

the International Energy Agency (IEA) based in Paris.

The dominant factor on the supply front for more than a year has been North American oil production, as it climbed to record levels when world demand was tapering off.

The huge surge in US production – nearly doubling from 2008’s low point of 5 million bpd to the recent levels of 9.6 million bpd – and the refusal by Saudi Arabia and its allies to bow to pressure

Page 13: NewBase 631 special 22 june 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13

and cut Opec’s production, has meant supply has been outstripping demand by more than 1m bpd for months, filling up storage tanks around the world to near capacity.

Benchmark oil prices slumped from US$115 a barrel last summer to a February low of $45, before recovering to trade at around $65 a barrel since April as US production levelled off. Saudi oil officials claimed at this month’s Opec meeting in Vienna that the slowdown by higher-cost producers vindicated its policy.

Now, however, the prospect of additional Iran and Iraq oil supply looms and Opec has no policy to accommodate it. The Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said this month that Iran could increase production by 1m bpd within seven months of sanctions being lifted, bringing it back to its 2011 pre-sanctions level of 3.7 million bpd. Most analysts think that is way too optimistic. Wood Mackenzie believes Iran could be pumping an additional 400,000 bpd by this time next year, with another 200,000 bpd coming on in 2017.

Iraq, meanwhile, could add another 200,000 bpd by next year too, as the country continues to increase production of its Basra Heavy crude grade, which started hitting the market this month, as well as increasing exports from the Kurdish region.

But Wood Mackenzie, in common with other analysts, says the outlook has many volatile variables. The most obvious for Iran is whether it can finalise a deal on sanctions related to its nuclear programme after a preliminary agreement was reached with international negotiators in April.

Wood Mackenzie’s “low case” scenario – if the nuclear deal falls through – would leave output and exports unchanged. Another uncertainty is over the state of repair of Iran’s oilfields – whether the period of idleness for some reservoirs will make it difficult to bring them back into production. Either scenario is possible.

Related to that will be how fast Iran can attract international oil companies’ investment – the oil ministry has been working for months on the politically risky task of improving contracts to offer international oil companies. Even before sanctions closed off Iran to most foreign investment, its contracts were deemed a failure, providing only minuscule returns for most companies.

Wood Mackenzie’s “high case” scenario for

Iranian oil production, with production rising from 2.7 million bpd to 3.1 million bpd next year and 3.3 million bpd in 2017, depends not only on a sanctions deal, but on everything else going right too, says Homayoun Falakshahi, Wood Mackenzie’s Iran analyst.

Page 14: NewBase 631 special 22 june 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14

Oilfield costs fall following decline in oil prices Source: EIA, based on United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, Industry Producer Price Indexes

As oil prices declined—falling more than 50% from June 2014 to January 2015, before increasing slightly in spring 2015—energy production companies focused efforts on increasing operating efficiencies.

While production, rig counts, and employment statistics are good indicators of the expansion or contraction of the oil and natural gas industry, the Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index (PPI) tracks the rates oil and natural gas service firms are receiving for goods and services used in producing oil and natural gas. Changes in the PPI can be used to examine how prices charged by firms throughout the oil and natural gas industry respond to fluctuations in commodity prices.

The magnitude of PPI declines by industrial classification compared with the downturn in oil prices reflects the idea that firms most directly exposed to commodity price fluctuations (producers) will experience the most substantial and immediate change in the rates received for their outputs.

As companies engaged in oil and natural gas production curtail capital expenditures and seek operating efficiencies in response to lower oil prices, these actions apply downward pressure on the rates charged by drillers, support services, and other suppliers.

From June 2014 to May 2015, when the oil and gas prices as measured by the PPI fell by 49%, the PPI by industry classification showed the following changes:

• Rates for drilling activities, which primarily represent service fees for contractors to drill oil and gas wells, declined by 19.6%.

• Rates for support activities, which include the surveying, cementing, casing, and otherwise treating wells, declined by 1.4%.

• The price of sands primarily used for hydraulic fracturing declined 12.5%.

Page 15: NewBase 631 special 22 june 2015

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The PPI index does not necessarily represent the slowdown in business activity, but rather reductions in prices received for particular goods and services. The price reductions reflect both weakened demand for the services offered and heightened industry competition to maintain market share.

Recent quarterly data show that year-over-year changes in net income—a measure of revenue minus operating expenses, depreciation, interest, and taxes—have declined for drilling and extraction companies.

For the first quarter of 2015, ending March 31, a group of 14 drilling companies represented in the OSX index (an index of oil and gas service companies) experienced a first-quarter year-over-year decline of 91% in net income, decreasing from an aggregate net income of $4.0 billion to $352 million. In the same period, a larger group of 57 North American independent oil and gas producers experienced a collective year-over-year decline in net income of 574% from $2.9 billion in net income to a loss of $13.9 billion.

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Offshore rig count going downhill

Baker Hughes Incorporated has posted Weekly Rig Count reports to its Investor Relations website. According to the latest report, offshore rig count has dropped from the previous week.

BHI Rig Count: U.S. -2 to 857 rigs

U.S. Rig Count is down 2 rigs from last week to 857, with oil rigs down 4 to 631, gas rigs up 2 to 223, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 3.

U.S. Rig Count is down 1001 rigs from last year at 1858, with oil rigs down 914, gas rigs down 88, and miscellaneous rigs up 1.

The U.S. Offshore rig count is 27, down 2 rigs from last week, and down 32 rigs year over year.

BHI Rig Count: Canada +9 to 136 rigs

Canadian Rig Count is up 9 rigs from last week to 136 rigs, with oil rigs up 6 to 74, and gas rigs up 3 to 62.

Canadian Rig Count is down 129 rigs from last year at 265, with oil rigs down 92, and gas rigs down 37.

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NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE

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For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy

Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010

Mobile: +97150-4822502 [email protected] [email protected]

Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &

regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.

NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

NewBase 22 June 2015 K. Al Awadi

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publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19