LECTURE L03 EXPONENTIAL WORLD
New Technology Lecture L03 Exponential World
Nov 02, 2014
For the most time of human history, life was local and linear. Local in the way that anything that happened was close by, a least within a walking distance. Linear in the way that your life was the same as your father and your childs. Nothing changed.
Just like the evolution of man, technology improvements follow an evolutionary progress. New ideas or products are to begin with immature and fragile with slow improvements. Then the progress accelerates until the products become mature and taken for granted. Then the cycle repeats and a new layer of technology is added to the previous. This process is exponential. One such observation of exponential is Moore’s Law.
Any new technology that gets wide acceptance in society needs to be adopted by people. We will explore that type of people are the first to adopt new things, and what types come later.
Just like the evolution of man, technology improvements follow an evolutionary progress. New ideas or products are to begin with immature and fragile with slow improvements. Then the progress accelerates until the products become mature and taken for granted. Then the cycle repeats and a new layer of technology is added to the previous. This process is exponential. One such observation of exponential is Moore’s Law.
Any new technology that gets wide acceptance in society needs to be adopted by people. We will explore that type of people are the first to adopt new things, and what types come later.
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LECTURE L03EXPONENTIAL WORLD
How does technology evolve?
Evolution of technology is closely linked with the evolution of mankind
Charles Darwin published “On The Origin of Species” in 1852
Evolutionary Process
Each generation breeds the next, and becomes an input
Samuel Butler published 1859 a letter to the editor of the Press in New Zealand, called “Darwin among the Machines”
Kingdom of the machines
Kevin Kelly: The Seventh Kingdom
Kevin Kelly’s The Seventh Kingdom
http://www.bordalierinstitute.com/images/brainEvolution.jpg
Evolution of the human brain
THE EXPONENTIAL
The S-‐Curve
The S-curveBased on the notion of the Technical Life Cycle
Improvements in performance varies
throughout the life of the technology
Prod
uct P
erfo
man
ce
Research and development phase
Growth phase
Maturity phase
Time and effort
The S-curve
The S-curve Exponential trends can be composed of a
sequence of S-‐curves where each curve is
faster
The S-curve Exponential trends can be composed of a
sequence of S-‐curves where each curve is
faster
Technology Life Cycle
Technology Life Cycle
The technology life-cycle (TLC) describes the commercial gain of a product through the expense of research and development phase, and the financial return during its "vital life".
In the early days !The innovators and technology enthusiasts drive the market They demand technology Small percentage of the market
In the later days !The pragmatists and conservatives dominate; they want solutions and convenience The big market
Technology Life Cycle
The Digital Revolution
IBM System/360
360/20 with 24K of memory
Computers in 1964
Transistor, 1947
Integrated circuit, 1959
Intel 4004, 1971
The Digital Revolution
Vacuum tube, 1904
Gordon Moore published an article in 1965 called “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits”
Number of transistors onan integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months
Moore’s Law
Number of transistors onan integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months.
Moore’s Law
Technological growth
accelerates
The Fifth Paradigm
1977 Apple II $1,298 4000 bytes memory Motorola 6502 1MHz
2007 iMac 17-inch $1,199 1GB memory Intel 2.0GHz
30 years of product improvements
iPad 2 as fast as Cray 2 supercomputer, fraction of the size
Read more: http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4
Cray 2 1985 Apple iPad 2 2011
30 years of product improvements
Slow growth in the beginning than accelerates
Exponential Growth
Flickr picture by spwelton
Second half of the Chess board
The Legend of theAmbalappuzha Paal Payasam
Number of transistors onan integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months.
Moore’s Law
Exponential growth
Computers will be faster
Computers will be smaller
Computers will be cheaper
Computers will be everywhere
Things that once were impossible become possible
From a 1946 Comic strip to CES 2009
And from 2009 to 2014
Source: http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/id2008012_297369.htm
Bill Buxton’s Long nose of Innovation
The Long Nose of Innovation
Growth of Technology
Evolutionary processes – bothbiology and technology, tend to a c c e l e r a t e
Ray Kurzweil on how technology will transform us (from TED.com)
Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage.
As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time.
The Law of Accelerating Returns
“An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is
exponential, contrary to the common-sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000
years of progress (at today's rate).”
- Ray Kurzweil
S-Curve
S-Curve
S-Curve
S-Curve
S-Curve
S-Curve
Is this evolution of technology good?
Technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral
Kranzberg’s 1. law of technology
Peter Diamandis
NEXT: !
The Adjacent Possible
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