New Technologies to Shape The Future of Transport - It’s About the Data - David Pickeral - IBM Industry Smarter Solutions Team - Transforming Transportation 2014 - EMBARQ The World

New Technologies to Shape The Future of Transport: “It’s About the Data” !

Transforming Transportation 2014!

!   Presented at Transforming Transportation 2014!

!   David E. Pickeral, JD, Transportation Sector Lead!!   IBM Industry Smarter Solutions Team!

© 2014 International Business Machines Corporation

New Technologies to Shape The Future of Transport: “It’s About the Data” Plenary Session: Transforming Transportation Through Technology

David E. Pickeral, JD Transportation Sector Lead IBM Industry Smarter Solutions Team

© 2014 International Business Machines Corporation

© 2014 International Business Machines Corporation 3

Computational Engineering challenges

IBM Intelligent Transportation (IIT)

China

Watson Almaden

Austin

Tokyo Haifa

Zurich

India

Dublin

Melbourne

Brazil

Saudi Arabia

Nairobi

•  TOAS: Public Transportation Awareness •  Urban Dynamics:

•  Megaffic: Agent based Traffic Management

•  Never Blocked

•  Traffic Prediction Tool

•  Smarter Traveler

•  Multi-modal Transportation Pricing •  DOCIT

•  Analytics for frugal ITS

© 2014 International Business Machines Corporation 4

Data Needed

Transportation Management Solutions – Functionality

Road sensor Movement (Mobile, GPS, etc.)

Transit & Transportation System

Network GIS People count, Behavior

Vehicle location & flow

Journey history, travel time predictions Upcoming travel Actionable information

Optimized transit Routes and scenario Planning Passenger O/D matrices

Decision support for Public transportation Network planning

Predicted time of Arrival Predicted traffic Conditions upto 1-hour ahead

Route performance, Road speed, vehicle location

Optimized prices, Revenue potential Under different rules And assumptions

Journey Management System

Zonal densities and Interzonal O/D matrices

Transit network Simulation and Operational plan Optimization Analysis of passenger Spatio-temporal Distribution Traffic simulation

Dynamic route Reconstruction and Time of arrival prediction

Network-wide Optimization of prices To maximize revenue Or profit

Fare rules

Analyses / Projects

Results Provided

IBM Intelligent Transportation (IIT)

© 2014 International Business Machines Corporation 5

Smarter Traveler notifies users in case of transportation incidents

IBM Intelligent Transportation (IIT)

© 2014 International Business Machines Corporation 6

Smarter Traveler: Solution Architecture

Driver Services - Transportation Management

© 2014 International Business Machines Corporation 7

Traffic Prediction Tool (TPT)

7

0 50 100 150 200 250

200

400

600

800

ID 103011024

0 50 100 150 200 250

050

015

0025

0035

00

ID 103063556

REAL

[pl,

]

0 50 100 150 200 250

500

1500

2500

3500

ID 103064570

REAL

[pl,

]

0 50 100 150 200 250

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

ID 103064571

0 50 100 150 200 250

1000

2000

3000

4000

ID 103064655

REAL

[pl,

] rr

r

rrrr

r

rr

r

r

rrr

r

r

r

r

rrr

r

rr

r

r

rr

r

0 50 100 150 200 250

500

1500

2500

3500

ID 103064789

REAL

[pl,

]

0 50 100 150 200 250

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

ID 103067974

0 50 100 150 200 250

010

020

030

040

0 ID 103072372

REAL

[pl,

]

rr

rrr

rrrrrrrrrrrr

r

rr

rrr

r

rr

rr

rrrrr

rr

rr

r

r

r

r

rrrrrrrr

rrrrrrrrrrrrrr

rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

rrrrrrrrrrrrr

r

r

rr

rrrrr

r

rr

rrrrr

r

r

rr

r

rrrrr

rrr

rr

r

rrrrr

r

rrr

r

r

r

r

rrrrrr

r

r

r

rr

r

r

r

r

r

r

r

r

r

rrr

r

rr

r

rr

rrr

r

r

r

rrrr

r

r

rr

r

r

r

rr

r

r

r

r

rr

r

r

r

rrr

r

rrr

0 50 100 150 200 250

1000

2000

3000

4000

ID 103102451

REAL

[pl,

]

Little automated use is made of the gigabytes of real-time traffic data today; often, by the time it is received, it is no longer representative of the actual traffic

► Issue: “real-time” is too late

IBM’s TPT provides a layer of intelligence by using sensor data in sophisticated algorithms that create relevant insights from the raw data

► IBM Innovation: forecast the future

TPT accurately forecasts future

traffic conditions, including incidents

volu

me

blue = forecast black = actual red = incident

time

Current Focus Traffic Operations: Variable Message Sign setting; traffic signal timing, ramp metering

Future Use Traffic Planning; Dynamic Road Pricing; congestion based tariff setting; route planning & advice

Extension: Data Expansion (2008 IME) develop algorithm to fill in gaps of real-time sensor data, resulting in a complete picture of future traffic state, network-wide

tool screenshot

IBM Intelligent Transportation (IIT)

© 2014 International Business Machines Corporation 8

Typical Scenario:

• A family travels from Birmensdorf (ZH) to the Zoo.

Several possibilities with different • Modes • Connections • Transfers and uncertainties! • Delays • Lack of parking • Traffic jams • …

Use Case 1 Personal Journey Planning

•  Provides API to external applications to plan a journey in a multi-modal network and track trip progress

•  Re-plan when User is off-track; Events invalidate plan; Events create better opportunities

Use Case 2 Operator facing optimization

•  Derive and communicate to operator performance measures based on how the system works for a user

-  Account for uncertainties -  Performance Metrics: journey times, wait times, missed connections, walk access distances

•  Make recommendations on schedule refinements

Dynamic Optimization of Community Intermodal Transportation (DOCIT)

IBM Intelligent Transportation (IIT)

© 2014 International Business Machines Corporation 9

Data à Operational, Failure, Usage, Condition, Customer, Location

Data

Assets

• Asset Management • Work Management • Service Management • Inventory / Contract • Procurement Management

EAM

/ SCA

DA

Enterprise Asset Management Scada, Sensors, Inspection, Metering Systems

AD

AM

Descriptive, Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics

Insight, Foresight and Prescriptions

• Maintenance Planning • Maintenance Scheduling • Replacement Planning • Condition Assessment • Failure Cause Analysis • Failure Prediction • Usage Analysis • Customer Analysis

IBM Intelligent Transportation (IIT)

Analytics Driven Asset Management - ADAM

© 2014 International Business Machines Corporation 10

PALM: Planning Analytics for Asset Lifecycle Management

Enterprise Asset Management GIS Agency Plan

(O&M + Capital)

Agency Financials

Unified information portal of Region Assets across all agencies Road Water Sanitary / Storm Ponds Bike Paths Signs Pavement Buildings

Cross Agency Project

Identification

Investment Planning – O&M

vs. Capital

Predict Prescribe Coordinate Act

Predictive Analytics

Strategic Needs & Sustainability

Assessment (replace vs. rehab vs. run to failure)

Infrastructure Profile

Profile

IBM Intelligent Transportation (IIT)

© 2014 International Business Machines Corporation 11

Thank You

[email protected]

www.linkedin.com/in/pickeral