New South Walesdata.daff.gov.au/.../AustCropRrt20160209_v1.0.0.docx · Web viewWidespread rainfall across cropping regions in Queensland and northern New South Wales in late January

Australian crop report

Prepared by the Australian Bureau of Agriculturaland Resource Economics and Sciences

No. 177February 2016

Australian crop report February 2016 ABARES

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The next issue of Australian crop report is scheduled to be released on 15 June 2016.

In the next issue:2015–16 summer crop area estimates and production forecasts updated2016–17 winter crop area and production forecasts

AcknowledgementsThis report was prepared by Benjamin Agbenyegah, Dean Mansfield, Matthew Miller, David Mobsby, Christopher Price and Kyann Zhang.

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ContentsOverview 1

Climatic and agronomic conditions 4

Crop conditions and production forecasts, by state 11

New South Wales 11

Queensland 12

Victoria 14

South Australia 15

Western Australia 16

Statistical tables 17

TablesTable 1 Summer crop plantings and production, Australia 2

Table 2 Winter crop production, Australia 3

Table 3 Winter crop area, Australia 3

Table 4 Rainfall in major cropping districts 9

Table 5 Summer crop forecasts, New South Wales, 2015–16 11

Table 6 Winter crop estimates, New South Wales, 2015–16 12

Table 7 Summer crop forecasts, Queensland, 2015–16 13

Table 8 Winter crop estimates, Queensland, 2015–16 13

Table 9 Winter crop estimates, Victoria, 2015–16 14

Table 10 Winter crop estimates, South Australia, 2015–16 15

Table 11 Winter crop estimates, Western Australia, 2015–16 16

Table 12 Australian winter crop production and area 17

Table 13 Australian summer crop production and area 17

Table 14 State production, major crops 18

Table 15 State production, other crops 20

Table 16 Australian supply and disposal of wheat, oilseed and pulses 22

Table 17 Australian supply and disposal of coarse grains 23

Table 18 Grains and oilseed prices 24

ii


MapsMap 1 Australian rainfall percentiles, 1 November 2015 to 31 January 2016 4

Map 2 Australian rainfall percentiles, January 2016 5

Map 3 Rainfall outlook, February to April 2016 5

Map 4 Upper layer soil moisture, January 2016 6

Map 5 Lower layer soil moisture, January 2016 7

Map 6 Forecast median shire grain sorghum yield 8

Map 7 Australian rainfall districts 10

iii


OverviewWidespread rainfall across cropping regions in Queensland and northern New South Wales in late January improved the outlook for dryland summer crops. This followed below average rainfall in some of these regions during December and much of January. Additionally, in its latest three-month rainfall outlook (February to April 2016), issued on 28 January 2016, the Bureau of Meteorology forecast that above-average rainfall is more likely in these regions.

Planting of summer crops is now largely complete in most of Australia’s major summer cropping regions. Total area planted to summer crops is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2015–16 to around 1.2 million hectares. An increase in area planted to cotton and mung beans is estimated to more than offset a fall in area planted to grain sorghum and rice. Total summer crop production is forecast to fall by 6 per cent to 3.9 million tonnes, largely as a result of a forecast fall in rice production.

Area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to fall by 2 per cent in 2015–16 to 712 000 hectares largely because of a forecast decline in planted area in Queensland. Planted area in Queensland is expected to fall because of unfavourable planting conditions in central Queensland during December and much of January. However, in New South Wales planting conditions were favourable during the planting window so area planted to grain sorghum is estimated to have increased from last year to 712 000 hectares. This would be the second highest since 2008–09. Grain sorghum production is forecast to rise by 3 per cent to 2.2 million tonnes, driven by an assumed increase in average yield.

Area planted to cotton is estimated to have increased by 37 per cent in 2015–16 to 270 000 hectares. This significant rise mainly reflects above average rainfall in November 2015, which improved water storage levels in dams serving Australia’s cotton growing regions. In response to the increased supply of irrigation water, area planted to irrigated cotton is estimated to have increased by around 7 per cent to 210 000 hectares. Additionally, the November rainfall created favourable planting conditions for dryland crops and area planted to dryland cotton is estimated to have increased from a negligible level last year to 60 000 hectares. However, average yield is assumed to fall by 23 per cent as a result of the estimated increase in area planted to dryland cotton, which typically yields around 70 per cent less than irrigated cotton. Australian cotton production is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2015–16 to 546 000 tonnes of cotton lint and around 772 000 tonnes of cottonseed.

Area planted to rice is estimated to have fallen by 56 per cent in 2015–16 to around 31 000 hectares, reflecting a significant reduction in supply of irrigation water available to rice growers in New South Wales. Rice production is forecast to fall by 58 per cent to 305 000 tonnes, assuming average yields.

1


Table 1 Summer crop plantings and production, Australia

Year New South Wales Queensland Australia

’000 ha kt ’000 ha kt ’000 ha kt

2005–06 776 2 791 645 1 516 1 433 4 352

2006–07 338 1 037 545 1 099 918 2 166

2007–08 398 1 668 791 2 877 1 199 4 567

2008–09 402 1 430 746 2 350 1 156 3 794

2009–10 381 1 405 514 1 342 903 2 764

2010–11 713 2 514 790 1 901 1 514 4 446

2011–12 757 3 064 783 2 379 1 558 5 494

2012–13 711 3 205 687 2 250 1 411 5 505

2013–14 568 2 317 559 1 469 1 139 3 846

2014–15 s 439 2 011 727 2 124 1 178 4 194

2015–16 f 468 1 746 759 2 148 1 239 3 945

% change 2014–15 to 2015–16 7 –13 4 1 5 –6

f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: State production includes cottonseed, grain sorghum, corn (maize), mung beans, rice, peanuts, soybeans and sunflower. Total for Australia also includes navy beans and small areas and volumes of summer crops in other states.

Harvesting of winter crops has been completed and total Australian winter crop production is estimated to have increased by 4 per cent in 2015–16 to 39.5 million tonnes. Winter crop production is estimated to have increased in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia. However, production is estimated to have fallen in Victoria because of poor seasonal conditions.

For the major winter crops, wheat production is estimated to have risen by 5 per cent in 2015-16 to 24.2 million tonnes and barley production by 4 per cent to 8.5 million tonnes. In contrast, canola production is estimated to have fallen by 15 per cent to 2.9 million tonnes.

Chickpea production is estimated to have increased significantly in 2015–16, reflecting a 56 per cent increase in planted area. This increase was in response to high chickpea prices.

Crop quality was highly variable in 2015-16. Wheat quality was generally good in Victoria but inconsistent in the other states. Most barley failed to meet malting grade because of high screenings. The oil content of the canola crop was low in some states, but overall quality was generally good.

2


Table 2 Winter crop production, Australia

Year New South Wales

kt

Victoria

kt

Queensland

kt

South Australia

kt

Western Australia

kt

Australia

kt

2005–06 11 981 6 267 1 433 7 518 13 945 41 226

2006–07 3 794 1 748 924 2 793 8 278 17 580

2007–08 3 999 4 692 1 194 4 706 10 761 25 415

2008–09 9 438 3 887 2 326 4 863 13 785 34 378

2009–10 7 787 5 889 1 617 7 035 12 943 35 344

2010–11 14 784 7 625 1 821 9 316 8 044 41 672

2011–12 11 952 7 352 2 329 7 371 16 600 45 670

2012–13 11 123 6 886 2 156 6 470 11 243 37 934

2013–14 9 773 6 775 1 516 7 221 16 510 41 880

2014–15 s 10 171 4 884 1 527 6 875 14 503 38 030

2015–16 s 11 408 4 111 2 129 7 174 14 622 39 499

% change 2014–15 to 2015–16

12 –16 39 4 1 4

s ABARES estimate.Note: Includes barley, canola, chickpeas, faba beans, field peas, lentils, linseed, lupins, oats, safflower, triticale and wheat.

Table 3 Winter crop area, Australia

Year New South Wales

’000 ha

Victoria

’000 ha

Queensland

’000 ha

South Australia

’000 ha

Western Australia

’000 ha

Australia

’000 ha

2005–06 5 593 2 969 966 3 868 7 407 20 827

2006–07 5 671 3 082 808 4 141 6 477 20 207

2007–08 6 312 3 375 873 4 131 7 265 21 978

2008–09 6 295 3 492 1 208 3 979 7 899 22 901

2009–10 6 106 3 488 1 173 3 783 8 271 22 844

2010–11 6 158 3 457 1 217 3 821 7 715 22 392

2011–12 5 969 3 411 1 205 3 838 8 252 22 693

2012–13 5 852 3 457 1 222 3 776 8 097 22 421

2013–14 5 314 3 284 1 105 3 448 8 249 21 421

2014–15 s 5 389 3 181 1 048 3 426 8 289 21 351

2015–16 s 5 674 3 263 1 134 3 568 8 418 22 075

% change 2014–15 to 2015–16

5 3 8 4 2 3

s ABARES estimate.Note: Includes barley, canola, chickpeas, faba beans, field peas, lentils, linseed, lupins, oats, safflower, triticale and wheat.

3


Climatic and agronomic conditionsFrom the beginning of November 2015 to the end of January 2016, rainfall was mostly average across cropping areas of Victoria and Queensland, average to above average across New South Wales and South Australia and extremely high across Western Australian cropping regions (Map1).

Map 1 Australian rainfall percentiles, 1 November 2015 to 31 January 2016

Note: Rainfall percentages are displayed for cropping regions only.Source: Bureau of Meteorology

During November 2015 most Australian cropping regions recorded average to above average rainfall. December 2015 rainfall was generally average or below for most cropping regions across eastern Australia. Some areas in Victoria, South Australia and Queensland received severely deficient falls, and Western Australia had average to extremely high rainfall. In January 2016 rainfall was at least average for most cropping regions across Australia, with many regions receiving well above average to extremely high rainfall (Map 2).

4


Map 2 Australian rainfall percentiles, January 2016

Note: Rainfall percentiles are displayed for cropping regions only.Source: Bureau of Meteorology

The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest seasonal rainfall outlook (February to April 2016) indicates that above average rainfall is likely across all cropping areas in Australia (Map 3).

Map 3 Rainfall outlook, February to April 2016

Note: Rainfall outlook is displayed for cropping regions only.Source: Bureau of Meteorology

The outlook for temperatures from February to April 2016 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be lower than average over most of inland Australia, with an increased chance of above average daytime temperatures in the far north and south of Australia. The outlook indicates no strong trend towards warmer or cooler than average night-time temperatures across Australia’s summer cropping regions.

5


A strong El Niño persists, but ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific are showing a gradual cooling signal. Climate models suggest El Niño will decay over the coming months, with a likely return to neutral conditions in the second quarter of 2016.

Based on the 26 El Niño events since 1900, around 50 per cent have been followed by a neutral year and 40 per cent have been followed by La Niña. Models also suggest neutral and La Niña states are about equally likely for the second half of 2016, with a repeat El Niño the least likely outcome. Historically, the breakdown of strong El Niño events brings above average rainfall to parts of Australia in the first half of the year, which is reflected in the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest seasonal rainfall outlook.

Map 4 and Map 5 show the relative levels of modelled upper layer (~0.1 metres) and lower layer (~0.1 to ~1 metres) soil moisture for cropping zones across Australia in January 2016. Soil moisture estimates are relative to the historical long-term average (1910 to 2015) and presented in percentiles.

Upper layer soil moisture responds quickly to seasonal conditions and will often show a pattern that reflects rainfall and temperature events in the days leading up to the analysis date. Lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to seasonal conditions and tends to reflect the accumulated effects of events that have occurred over longer periods.

Relative upper layer soil moisture in January 2016 (Map 4) for the wheat–sheep zone is predominantly above average to very much above average. Relative upper layer soil moisture across summer cropping regions in Queensland was average to above average, while in northern New South Wales relative upper layer soil moisture was predominately well above average. This pattern of relative upper layer soil moisture reflects rainfall received in January 2016.

Map 4 Upper layer soil moisture, January 2016

Note: Relative upper layer soil moisture displayed for summer cropping regions only.Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

Relative soil moisture in the lower layer in January 2016 was generally above average across cropping regions in southern Queensland, northern New South Wales and Western Australia, with cropping regions across the remainder of New South Wales and Victoria showing generally average lower layer relative soil moisture (Map 5). SA and northern Queensland cropping

6


regions show relative lower layer soil moisture levels tending towards below average to well below average for this time of year.

Map 5 Lower layer soil moisture, January 2016

Note: Relative lower layer soil moisture displayed for summer cropping regions only.Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

Map 6 shows the shire-scale forecasts of grain sorghum yields obtained from the University of Queensland’s Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation. These forecasts are based on information about starting soil moisture conditions and the seasonal outlook, including the most recent trend in the Southern Oscillation Index.

At the beginning of January 2016, forecast median grain sorghum yields were highly variable but generally below average to average for summer cropping regions of Queensland, with predicted yields ranging from between 0 to the 100th percentile. For cropping regions in northern New South Wales forecast median grain sorghum yields were generally average to above average, ranging from the 20th to the 100th percentile. This pattern reflects rainfall received during spring and December 2015.

It is expected that above average rainfall received in January 2016 in many summer cropping regions of northern New South Wales and Queensland should have markedly improved yield prospects for grain sorghum.

7


Map 6 Forecast median shire grain sorghum yield

Note: Forecast median shire yield ranked relative to all years (%), given the Southern Oscillation Index phase was ‘rapidly falling’ at the end of December 2015.Source: Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation

8


Table 4 Rainfall in major cropping districts

District District

no.

Nov.median

mm

Nov. 2015

mm

Dec.median

mm

Dec. 2015

mm

Jan. median

mm

Jan 2016

mm

New South Wales

NW Plains (W) 52 38 64 47 31 50 153

NW Plains (E) 53 51 63 63 45 63 128

NW Slopes (N) 54 64 83 79 82 78 135

NW Slopes (S) 55 66 70 76 76 71 107

N Tablelands (N) 56 83 97 97 114 97 132

CW Plains (S) 50 30 66 35 32 34 79

CW Plains (N) 51 33 68 41 21 42 109

CW Slopes (N) 64 52 77 47 42 61 114

CW Slopes (S) 65 41 78 45 44 47 84

C Tablelands (N) 62 61 96 57 86 60 129

C Tablelands (S) 63 62 92 66 63 74 139

Riverina (W) 75 22 50 23 19 18 51

Riverina (E) 74 31 69 31 22 22 65

SW Slopes (N) 73 48 96 44 29 36 68

SW Slopes (S) 72 74 113 67 53 55 142

Victoria

N Mallee 76 19 22 16 3 13 41

S Mallee 77 24 23 19 5 13 38

N Wimmera 78 26 21 20 9 15 36

S Wimmera 79 32 22 25 17 20 42

Lower North 80 27 38 20 11 21 49

Upper North 81 33 38 26 18 25 64

Lower North East 82 67 98 62 61 45 118

North Central 88 55 41 50 32 37 71

Western Plains 89 48 32 37 25 28 54

West Coast 90 53 31 44 25 32 33

Queensland

Central Highlands 35 54 58 77 60 90 102

Maranoa 43 54 53 62 62 63 118

W Darling Downs 42 50 55 70 54 65 106

E Darling Downs 41 59 73 81 75 68 99

Moreton S Coast 40 79 111 109 59 119 127

continued …

9

b


Table 4 Rainfall in major cropping districts (continued)

District District

no.

Nov.median

mm

Nov. 2015

mm

Dec.median

mm

Dec. 2015

mm

Jan. median

mm

Jan 2016

mm

South Australia

Upper South East 25B 28 37 22 8 15 46

Murray Mallee 25A 21 40 17 3 12 34

Murray River 24 21 25 16 4 13 33

East Central 23 31 29 24 10 16 39

Yorke Peninsula 22A 20 30 16 6 9 25

Lower North 21 24 50 19 3 14 50

Upper North 19 17 40 17 5 13 28

Western Agricultural 18

18 26 13 6 9 13

Western Australia

North Coast 8 6 21 5 5 6 37

Central Coast 9 16 16 8 11 4 29

Northern Central 10

9 27 7 7 8 55

South Central 10A 16 23 10 35 8 75

South East 12 13 24 17 22 13 43

Note: Median rainfall is calculated over the period 1900 to 2015 for November and December and 1900 to 2016 for January. Australian rainfall districts are shown in Map 7.Source: Bureau of Meteorology monthly district rainfall reports

Map 7 Australian rainfall districts

Note: Displayed for major cropping districts only. See Table 4 for district names and observed district rainfall.

10


Source: Bureau of Meteorology

11


Crop conditions and production forecasts, by stateNew South WalesSeasonal conditions towards the end of October and during November were favourable for summer crop planting. Heavy rainfall during this period improved levels of upper layer soil moisture and producers increased area planted to summer crops in response. Further heavy rainfall in January has also been beneficial and yields have been above average for crops already harvested.

In its latest three-month rainfall outlook (February 2016 to April 2016), issued on 28 January 2016, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) forecast a 60 per cent to 70 per cent chance of the summer cropping regions in New South Wales receiving higher than median rainfall.

Area planted to summer crops in New South Wales is forecast to increase by 7 per cent in 2015–16 to 468 000 hectares, driven by an estimated increase in area planted to grain sorghum and cotton. However, summer crop production in New South Wales is forecast to fall by 13 per cent to 1.7 million tonnes, largely because of a significant forecast fall in rice production.

Area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to expand by 8 per cent to 197 000 hectares, reflecting relatively high prices at the start of the planting window. Yields are expected to increase by 11 per cent to around 3.6 tonnes a hectare because of favourable planting conditions and above average rainfall in January. Grain sorghum production is forecast to increase by 20 per cent to 700 000 tonnes.

Area planted to cotton is estimated to have increased by 31 per cent in 2015–16 to 163 000 hectares. This reflects an estimated 6 per cent rise in area planted to irrigated cotton to 132 000 hectares, and 31 000 hectares planted to dryland cotton, up from a negligible area last year. However, average yield is assumed to fall by 22 per cent, which reflects the increase in area planted to lower yielding dryland cotton. Cotton production is forecast to rise by 3 per cent in 2015–16, to 337 000 tonnes of cotton lint and around 477 000 tonnes of cottonseed.

Area planted to rice is estimated to have fallen by 57 per cent in 2015–16 to around 30 000 hectares, which reflects relatively low allocations of irrigation water and a significant increase in the price of supplementary water. Rice production is forecast to decline by 58 per cent to around 300 000 tonnes, assuming average yields.

Table 5 Summer crop forecasts, New South Wales, 2015–16

Crop Area

’000 ha

Yield

t/ha

Production

kt

Area change

%

Prod. change

%

Grain sorghum 197 3.55 700 8 20

Cotton lint 163 2.07 337 31 3

Cottonseed 163 2.92 477 31 3

Rice 30 10.00 300 –57 –58

Note: Yields are based on area planted.

12


Total winter crop production in New South Wales is estimated to have increased by around 12 per cent in 2015–16, reflecting a 5 per cent increase in planted area and an estimated 7 per cent improvement in average yield.

Wheat production is estimated to have increased by 16 per cent in 2015–16 to 7.5 million tonnes, reflecting increases in planted area and average yield. Area planted to wheat increased by 10 per cent to around 3.4 million hectares and average yield is estimated to have risen by 5 per cent higher to 2.2 tonnes a hectare.

Barley production is estimated to have risen by 5 per cent in 2015–16 to 1.9 million tonnes, largely reflecting an increase in planted area. Average yield is estimated to have increased slightly to 2.10 tonnes a hectare.

Canola production is estimated to have fallen by 15 per cent in 2015–16 to 833 000 tonnes, largely reflecting a 17 per cent reduction in planted area to around 560 000 hectares. Yields are estimated to have averaged around 1.5 tonnes a hectare.

Table 6 Winter crop estimates, New South Wales, 2015–16

Crop Area

’000 ha

Yield

t/ha

Production

kt

Area change

%

Prod. change

%

Wheat 3 410 2.20 7 500 10 16

Barley 900 2.10 1 890 5 5

Canola 560 1.49 833 –17 –15


QueenslandSpring and early summer rainfall was generally favourable for the early planting of summer crops in southern Queensland. Unfavourable seasonal conditions in central Queensland during December and much of January reduced regional soil moisture levels at the start of the summer crop planting window. However, widespread rainfall received in late January has improved dryland summer crop prospects in all cropping regions.

In its latest three-month rainfall outlook (February to April 2016), issued on 28 January 2016, the Bureau of Meteorology forecast a 55 per cent to 75 per cent chance of the summer cropping regions in Queensland receiving higher than median rainfall.

Area planted to summer crops in Queensland is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2015–16 to around 759 000 hectares. An increase in area planted to cotton and mung beans is expected to more than offset a fall in area planted to grain sorghum. Total summer crop production is forecast to increase by only 1 per cent to 2.15 million tonnes. This largely reflects an increase in area planted to dryland cotton, which typically has a much lower yield than irrigated cotton.

Area planted to grain sorghum in Queensland is forecast to fall by 6 per cent in 2015–16 to 514 000 hectares. However, planted area in 2014–15 was above average at 546 000 hectares, which would still be the second highest since 2008–09. The fall in area planted to grain sorghum is expected in southern Queensland because of the increase in area planted to dryland cotton and in central Queensland largely because of unfavourable seasonal conditions in December and much of January.

13


Harvesting of early planted grain sorghum has begun in southern Queensland and yields have been variable to date. However, the favourable rainfall outlook for February to April is assumed to result in above average yields in many cropping regions.

Area planted to cotton is estimated to have increased by 47 per cent in 2015–16, comprised of an estimated 7 per cent increase in area planted to irrigated cotton to 78 000 hectares and an estimated 29 000 hectares planted to dryland cotton. Last year, negligible area was planted to dryland cotton. However, average yield is assumed to decline by 25 per cent to 1.95 tonnes a hectare, reflecting area planted to lower yielding dryland cotton. Cotton production in Queensland is forecast to rise by 10 per cent to 209 000 tonnes of cotton lint and around 296 000 tonnes of cottonseed.

Table 7 Summer crop forecasts, Queensland, 2015–16

Crop Area

’000 ha

Yield

t/ha

Production

kt

Area change

%

Prod. change

%

Grain sorghum 514 2.99 1 538 –6 –3

Cotton lint 107 1.95 209 47 10

Cottonseed 107 2.76 296 47 10


Total winter crop production in Queensland is estimated to have risen by 39 per cent in 2015–16 to 2.1 million tonnes, largely driven by record high chickpea production and above average cereal crop yields in southern Queensland. However, there were regional variations that reflected the variable pattern of rainfall received in this region. Harvesting of winter crops began in early October 2015 and was largely completed by mid November.

Wheat production is estimated to have increased by 31 per cent in 2015–16 to 1.4 million tonnes. Average yield is estimated to be 26 per cent higher at 2 tonnes a hectare, reflecting the above average yields in southern Queensland.

Chickpea production is estimated to have more than doubled in 2015–16 to a record 555 000 tonnes. Area planted to chickpeas reached a record 338 000 hectares. The increase in planted area was largely in response to high chickpea prices at planting time. Crop yields in central Queensland were limited by warm and dry seasonal conditions, while yields in southern Queensland are expected to be above average.

Table 8 Winter crop estimates, Queensland, 2015–16

Crop Area

’000 ha

Yield

t/ha

Production

kt

Area change

%

Prod. change

%

Wheat 700 2.00 1 400 4 31

Barley 75 2.07 155 –40 –35

Chickpeas 338 1.64 555 105 176


14


VictoriaSeasonal conditions in Victoria were poor during the winter crop growing season in 2015–16, with many cropping regions receiving less than 60 per cent of average seasonal rainfall. Reflecting this, a higher than normal proportion of crops was grazed or cut for hay.

Total winter crop production in Victoria is estimated to have decreased by 16 per cent (to 4.1 million tonnes) in 2015–16 from a below average season in the previous year. This is estimated to have been almost 40 per cent below the five-year average to 2014–15 and the lowest since 2008–09.

Wheat production is estimated to have declined by 15 per cent in 2015–16 to around 2.1 million tonnes. Wheat quality was generally good with high protein levels and relatively few screenings.

Barley production is estimated to have fallen by 2 per cent in 2015–16 to 1.3 million tonnes, with an increase in area planted partially offsetting the impact of lower yields. In contrast with wheat, the overall quality of barley was poor. This was largely a result of differences in timing of crop development. Only a small proportion of barley production met malting barley standards and high screenings resulted in downgrades among the feed grades.

Canola production is estimated to have declined by around a third in 2015–16 to 350 000 tonnes. Area planted to canola fell by 20 per cent and harvested area was further reduced by a significant proportion of crops being grazed or cut for hay. A fall in the average yield also contributed to the decline in production. Oil content was lower than average, with many crops recording oil content of between 35 per cent and 40 per cent.

Table 9 Winter crop estimates, Victoria, 2015–16

Crop Area

’000 ha

Yield

t/ha

Production

kt

Area change

%

Prod. change

%

Wheat 1 460 1.45 2 110 2 –15

Barley 960 1.35 1 300 9 –2

Canola 370 0.95 350 –20 –34


15


South AustraliaUnfavourable seasonal conditions in South Australia disrupted development of wheat and barley crops but average yields are estimated to have been above the 10-year average to 2014–15. Crop quality was adversely affected by the unfavourable conditions and high screenings, particularly for barley. Harvest progress was delayed in November because of fires in the state. Some farmers in the affected regions suffered losses but aggregate state production was not significantly affected.

Total winter crop production in South Australia is estimated to have risen by 4 per cent in 2015–16 to 7.2 million tonnes. Yields in mid-north South Australia were slightly lower than anticipated but this was offset by particularly strong yields on the Eyre Peninsula. Total area planted increased by around 4 per cent to 3.6 million hectares.

Wheat production is estimated to have increased by 4 per cent in 2015–16 to 4.4 million tonnes. Area planted to wheat is estimated to have increased by around 6 per cent, but average yield is estimated to have fallen from the high level achieved in 2014–15.

Barley production is estimated to have increased by around 7 per cent to 1.9 million tonnes, driven mainly by increases in planted area. Unfavourable seasonal conditions adversely affected grain quality.

Canola production is estimated to have remained largely unchanged at 296 000 tonnes. Area planted to canola fell by 22 per cent but this was offset by an estimated 29 per cent rise in average yield. The increase in average yield represents a return to average yields in most regions from the lows of 2014–15.

Table 10 Winter crop estimates, South Australia, 2015–16

Crop Area

’000 ha

Yield

t/ha

Production

kt

Area change

%

Prod. change

%

Wheat 2 000 2.19 4 376 6 4

Barley 810 2.32 1 881 3 7

Canola 225 1.32 296 –22 0


16


Western AustraliaTotal winter crop production in Western Australia is estimated to have increased by 1 per cent in 2015-16 to 14.6 million tonnes, despite variable seasonal conditions. Area planted to winter crops rose by around 2 per cent to 8.4 million hectares, reflecting the favourable start to the season.

Crop quality was variable, with the quality of cereal crops generally poorer than canola crops.

Wheat production is estimated to have been largely unchanged in 2015–16 at 8.8 million tonnes. Area planted to wheat increased by 2 per cent to 5.1 million hectares but this was largely offset by an estimated 2 per cent fall in average yield. Wheat protein levels were around average but high rates of screenings resulted in a higher than average proportion of the crop being graded as general purpose.

Barley production is estimated to have increased by 7 per cent in 2015–16, which largely reflects an 8 per cent increase in planted area. A well above average share of harvested barley crops has been graded as feed because of well above average levels of screenings.

Canola production is estimated to have fallen by 11 per cent in 2015–16 to 1.5 million tonnes. Area planted to canola was 14 per cent lower at 1.2 million hectares. Canola quality was good and oil content high, which reflects the earlier planting of canola crops this season. Earlier planting resulted in canola yield and quality being less affected by the dry spring conditions than cereal crops.

Table 11 Winter crop estimates, Western Australia, 2015–16

Crop Area

’000 ha

Yield

t/ha

Production

kt

Area change

%

Prod. change

%

Wheat 5 150 1.71 8 800 2 0

Barley 1 350 2.41 3 250 8 7

Canola 1 200 1.22 1 463 –14 –11

Lupins 326 1.37 445 13 16


17


Statistical tablesTable 12 Australian winter crop production and area

Crop Area Production

2013–14

’000 ha

2014–15 s

’000 ha

2015–16 s

’000 ha

2013–14

kt

2014–15 s

kt

2015–16 s

kt

Wheat 12 613 12 155 12 728 25 303 23 076 24 219

Barley 3 814 3 912 4 100 9 174 8 173 8 490

Canola 2 721 2 824 2 357 3 832 3 447 2 945

Chickpeas 508 425 661 629 555 1 013

Faba beans 152 164 282 328 284 319

Field peas 245 237 238 342 290 205

Lentils 170 189 232 254 242 258

Lupins 387 443 490 626 549 607

Oats 715 869 863 1 255 1 184 1 249

Triticale 80 126 117 126 225 191

s ABARES estimate.Note: Crop year refers to crops planted during the 12 months to 31 March. Slight discrepancies may appear between tables as a result of including the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory in Australian totals.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia

Table 13 Australian summer crop production and area

Crop Area Production

2013–14

’000 ha

2014–15 s

’000 ha

2015–16 f

’000 ha

2013–14

kt

2014–15 s

kt

2015–16 f

kt

Grain sorghum 532 730 712 1 282 2 178 2 240

Cottonseed 392 197 270 1 252 730 772

Cotton lint 392 197 270 885 516 546

Rice 75 71 31 819 724 305

Corn (maize) 52 67 66 390 401 420

Soybeans 25 32 32 32 68 64

Sunflower 17 35 36 18 40 46

f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: Crop year refers to crops planted during the 12 months to 31 March. Slight discrepancies may appear between tables as a result of including the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory in Australian totals.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

18

Australian

crop report February 2016

ABARES

19

Table 14 State production, major crops

Australian


ABARES

20

Winter crops New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Tasmania

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

Wheat

2015–16 s 3 410 7 500 1 460 2 110 700 1 400 2 000 4 376 5 150 8 800 8 33

2014–15 s 3 088 6 449 1 431 2 491 670 1 066 1 886 4 202 5 071 8 824 8 44

2013–14 3 269 6 596 1 536 3 396 758 1 036 1 927 4 254 5 115 9 977 8 43

Five-year average to 2014–15

3 506 7 874 1 604 3 533 831 1 425 2 104 4 522 4 978 8 319 7 36

Barley

2015–16 s 900 1 890 960 1 300 75 155 810 1 881 1 350 3 250 5 14

2014–15 s 860 1 793 882 1 327 124 240 786 1 756 1 255 3 040 5 17

2013–14 715 1 486 919 2 036 106 180 810 1 892 1 258 3 556 6 25


749 1 637 857 1 853 99 185 827 1 876 1 215 2 631 7 24

Canola

2015–16 s 560 833 370 350 1 1 225 296 1 200 1 463 1 1

2014–15 s 675 980 461 529 1 0 289 295 1 397 1 641 1 2

2013–14 673 922 439 710 2 1 297 419 1 307 1 777 1 3


716 1 059 458 654 1 1 284 380 1 210 1 346 1 1

Oats

2015–16 s 300 360 131 160 18 15 60 101 350 607 4 6

2014–15 s 366 352 131 176 84 14 56 89 228 547 4 6

2013–14 268 283 106 213 23 3 54 82 260 661 4 12

Five-year average to 2014– 285 327 130 219 37 12 60 93 258 531 4 8

Australian


ABARES

21

15

continued …

Table 14 State production, major crops (continued)

Summer crops New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Tasmania

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

Grain sorghum

2015–16 f 197 700 0 0 514 1 538 0 0 1 2 0 0

2014–15 s 183 583 0 1 546 1 591 0 1 0 4 0 0

2013–14 175 419 0 0 356 860 0 0 1 2 0 0


198 662 1 2 441 1 305 0 0 1 2 0 0

Cottonseed

2015–16 f 163 477 0 0 107 296 0 0 0 0 0 0

2014–15 s 124 462 0 0 73 268 0 0 0 0 0 0

2013–14 256 831 0 0 136 421 0 0 0 0 0 0


274 822 0 0 170 462 0 0 0 0 0 0

Rice

2015–16 f 30 300 0 2 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

2014–15 s 70 720 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

2013–14 73 812 1 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


87 864 0 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: Zero area or production estimates may appear as a result of rounding to the nearest whole number, where production or area estimates are less than 500 tonnes or 500 hectares.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Australian


ABARES

22

Table 15 State production, other crops

Winter crops New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Tasmania

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

Chickpeas

2015–16 s 291 439 13 5 338 555 17 11 3 3 0 0

2014–15 s 209 282 26 52 165 201 21 16 3 4 0 0

2013–14 220 251 48 50 216 296 19 27 5 6 0 0

Five-year average to 2014–15 271 316 41 55 189 243 16 19 5 5 0 0

Field peas

2015–16 s 48 73 54 21 0 0 114 82 22 29 0 0

2014–15 s 51 66 51 65 0 0 110 127 25 32 0 0

2013–14 50 53 51 68 0 0 112 184 32 37 0 0


Lentils

2015–16 s 3 2 100 50 0 0 130 206 0 0 0 0

2014–15 s 1 1 86 80 0 0 102 162 0 0 0 0

2013–14 1 1 79 112 0 0 89 141 1 1 0 0


Lupins

2015–16 s 62 76 33 24 0 0 70 61 326 445 0 0

2014–15 s 56 66 32 26 0 0 68 75 287 382 0 0

2013–14 57 57 28 29 0 0 56 78 246 461 0 0


continued …

Australian


ABARES

23

Table 15 State production, other crops (continued)

Summer crops New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Tasmania

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

Corn (maize)

2015–16 f 22 188 3 33 39 193 0 0 1 6 0 0

2014–15 s 22 180 3 38 41 176 0 0 1 7 0 0

2013–14 22 209 3 38 26 137 0 0 1 5 0 0


Soybeans

2015–16 f 20 43 1 1 12 20 0 0 0 0 0 0

2014–15 s 20 47 1 2 12 20 0 0 0 0 0 0

2013–14 20 24 0 0 5 7 0 0 0 0 0 0


Sunflower

2015–16 f 11 16 0 0 24 29 0 0 1 1 0 0

2014–15 s 10 10 0 0 24 29 0 0 1 1 0 0

2013–14 11 13 1 0 5 4 0 0 1 1 0 0


f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: Zero area or production estimates may appear as a result of rounding to the nearest whole number, where production or area estimates are less than 500 tonnes or 500 hectares.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia


Table 16 Australian supply and disposal of wheat, oilseed and pulses

Crop 2009–10

kt

2010–11

kt

2011–12

kt

2012–13

kt

2013–14

kt

2014–15s

kt

Wheat

Production 21 834 27 410 29 905 22 855 25 303 23 076

Apparent domestic use 4 999 5 663 6 334 6 451 6 642 6 922

– seed 675 695 649 631 608 636

– other a 4 324 4 968 5 685 5 820 6 035 6 286

Exports b 14 791 18 584 24 656 18 644 18 612 16 586

Imports b 15 12 14 17 20 22

Canola

Production 1 907 2 359 3 427 4 142 3 832 3 447

Apparent domestic use a 721 810 871 631 969 821

Exports 1 187 1 549 2 557 3 512 2 863 2 626

Pulses

Production

– lupins 823 808 982 459 626 549

– field peas 356 395 342 320 342 290

– chickpeas 487 513 673 813 629 555

Apparent domestic use a

– lupins 470 621 416 290 310 299

– field peas 196 95 130 145 175 124

– chickpeas 1 39 93 1 0 3

Exports

– lupins 353 186 565 169 316 250

– field peas 162 302 215 177 169 168

– chickpeas 503 474 581 853 629 663

a Calculated as a residual: production plus imports less exports less any observed or assumed change in stocks and, for wheat only, less seed use. b Includes grain and grain equivalent of wheat flour. s ABARES estimate.Note: Production, use, trade and stock data are on a marketing year basis: October–September for wheat; November–October for canola, peas and lupins. The export data on a marketing year basis are not comparable with financial year export figures published elsewhere.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia

24


Table 17 Australian supply and disposal of coarse grains

Crop 2009–10

kt

2010–11

kt

2011–12

kt

2012–13

kt

2013–14

kt

2014–15s

kt

Barley

Production 7 865 7 995 8 221 7 472 9 174 8 173

Apparent domestic use 3 230 2 631 2 075 2 182 2 218 2 240

– seed 226 199 166 167 164 172

– other a 3 004 2 432 1 909 2 015 2 054 2 069

Export 4 635 5 364 6 146 5 289 6 957 5 932

– feed barley 2 668 3 601 3 758 2 972 3 944 3 070

– malting barley 1 248 1 062 1 619 1 512 2 273 2 149

– malt (grain equivalent) 720 700 770 805 740 713

Oats

Production 1 162 1 128 1 262 1 121 1 255 1 184

Apparent domestic use 954 1 009 1 083 850 1 005 877

– seed 42 41 40 35 35 34

– other a 912 969 1 043 815 970 843

Export 208 118 179 271 249 308

Triticale

Production 545 355 285 171 126 225

Apparent domestic use 545 355 285 171 126 225

– seed 9 7 5 4 6 6

– other a 536 348 280 167 119 219

Export 0 0 0 0 0 0

Grain sorghum

Production 1 508 1 935 2 239 2 229 1 282 2 178

Apparent domestic use 1 167 984 1 060 1 083 885 547

– seed 3 3 3 3 4 4

– other a 1 164 981 1 056 1 080 881 543

Export b 998 341 950 1 179 1 146 397

Corn (maize)

Production 328 357 451 506 390 401

Apparent domestic use 321 312 346 402 330 332

– seed 1 1 1 1 1 1

– other a 320 311 345 401 329 331

Export b 13 9 46 106 106 60

a Calculated as a residual: production plus imports less exports less any observed or assumed change in stocks and less seed use. b Export volumes are shown in year of actual export, which is typically one year after production. s ABARES estimate.Note: Production, use and export data are on a marketing year basis: marketing years are November–October for barley, oats and triticale; March–February for grain sorghum and corn (maize). The export data on a marketing year basis are not comparable with financial year export figures published elsewhere.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade)

25


Table 18 Grains and oilseed prices

Crop 2014

Q2

A$/t

2014

Q3

A$/t

2014

Q4

A$/t

2015

Q1

A$/t

2015

Q2

A$/t

2015

Q3

A$/t

2015

Q4

A$/t

Wheat

Domestic: feed, del. Sydney 327 288 295 300 297 295 289

International: US no. 2 hard red winter, fob Gulf a

356 308 334 323 304 309 298

Barley

Domestic: 2 row feed, del. Sydney 316 283 284 283 285 275 252

Export: feed b 265 278 299 325 204 374 272

Export: malting b 286 295 326 352 214 387 329

International: feed, fob Rouen a 250 219 247 262 251 255 251

Grain sorghum


Export b 349 326 369 377 352 367 497

Oats


International: CME oats nearby contract 271 265 264 248 221 221 223

Corn (maize)


International: US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf a 230 189 203 222 217 234 233

Oilseed

Domestic: canola, del. Melbourne 532 468 470 494 501 541 553

International: Europe rapeseed, cif Hamburg 581 461 490 517 549 571 576

International: US no. 2 soybeans, fob Gulf a 616 504 493 505 497 524 492

Pulses

Domestic: lupins, del. Kwinana 327 293 322 350 320 322 320

Domestic: chickpeas, del. Melbourne 449 433 449 607 768 841 794

Domestic: field peas, del. Melbourne 389 366 361 433 530 534 519

Export: chickpeas b 534 556 571 618 699 874 864

Export: field peas b 431 468 462 513 575 544 568

a Average of daily offer prices made in US$, converted to A$ using quarterly average of daily exchange rates. b Export unit values reflect the average price received for grain exported over the quarter, not current market prices. These prices are the average unit value (free on board) of Australian exports recorded by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. A long lag time can exist between when exporters negotiate prices and when the product is exported.Note: Q1 refers to January–March; Q2 refers to April–June; Q3 refers to July–September; Q4 refers to October–December. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES (compiled from various market sources); Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculture, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, Washington DC

26

New South Walesdata.daff.gov.au/.../AustCropRrt20160209_v1.0.0.docx · Web viewWidespread rainfall across cropping regions in Queensland and northern New South Wales in late January

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