NEW SOUTH WALES Transmission Annual Planning Report 2014
NEW SOUTH WALES
Transmission Annual Planning
Report 2014
1 │ NEW SOUTH WALES TRANSMISSION ANNUAL PLANNING REPORT 2014 CONSUMER SUMMARY
Message from the Managing DirectorTransGrid is adapting and enhancing its business operations to become more responsive to the changing energy environment so that we can continue to provide a safe, reliable and economically efficient transmission service to NSW, the ACT and the National Electricity Market.
The electricity industry is in a time of transformation. The last five years have seen a shift towards renewable sources of generation, smarter ways of managing peak demand for electricity, adoption of energy efficiency initiatives and energy storage technologies becoming more affordable. Consequently, the electricity supply chain of the future will look very different to that of the past.
TransGrid is shaping the transmission network of the future and has committed to responding to the changing environment by altering the way we plan, operate and maintain our network. We will also align our business priorities with the changing needs of electricity consumers to ensure robust and sustainable solutions.
The Transmission Annual Planning Report documents the process and outcomes of TransGrid’s Annual Planning Review. This summary has been developed to provide an overview of TransGrid’s key planning initiatives with a particular focus on:
• our commitment to more effective consumer engagement;• identifying non-network options; and • condition based renewal of assets nearing the end of their
serviceable lives.
TransGrid’s proposed asset renewal program comprises the most economic combination of replacement and refurbishment options for transmission equipment reaching a condition that reflects the end of its serviceable life. The program is essential to ensure the continued safety of staff, contractors and the public and to maintain a reliable electricity supply.
In recent years, significant price rises have occurred for electricity consumers. TransGrid understands that electricity is an essential service and that consumers should pay no more than necessary for their electricity supply. On average, the cost of transmission makes up approximately 11% of an average electricity bill for homes and small businesses in NSW.
We acknowledge that every dollar counts and in recognition of this, TransGrid has established a comprehensive consumer engagement program to give consumers a voice in the development of our business plans.
I believe that consultation is key to TransGrid’s future. As a transmission service provider, our continued role in the electricity supply chain depends on our capacity to be responsive to change. We must consider and take into account the opinions and preferences of our customers, and be ready and willing to adapt to new ways of operating our business.
In delivering the 2014 Transmission Annual Planning Report, we invite you to share your views with us and take part in a robust discussion which will help shape the transmission network of the future. We look forward to your valuable feedback.
Peter McIntyre Managing Director
July 2014
About TransGridTransGrid owns and operates the main high voltage electricity transmission network in NSW and the ACT, connecting generators, distributors and major end users.
TransGrid’s role is to deliver a safe, secure and reliable network through efficient maintenance, proficient operation of assets and sensible investment.
Our network comprises 96 bulk supply substations and more than 12,900 kilometres of high voltage transmission lines, which equates to about the distance of a return flight from Sydney to Singapore.
As part of TransGrid’s ongoing commitment to ensure consumer input into our planning process, we are consulting on the Transmission Annual Planning Report. This aims to ensure the document complies with the requirements of the National Electricity Rules while meeting the ongoing needs of stakeholders. A forum will be held in August 2014 and afterwards TransGrid will conduct a survey about the detail provided in this report. We will also publish a summary of the outcomes of the feedback received. This will help inform our 2015 report. Stakeholder forums throughout the state will also be held, outlining our plans. To get involved in this consultation, visit our engagement website – www.yoursaytransgrid.com.au
Yass
Yanco
Griffith
Buronga
Broken Hill
FinleyDeniliquin
Darlington Point
AlburyHume
Cooma
Munyang
Snowy Adit
Queanbeyan
Tumut
Murrumburrah
Cowra
Kangaroo ValleyMarulan
GullenRange
Panorama
Molong
Orange
Beryl
Parkes
Forbes
Wellington Bayswater Liddell
Dapto
Muswellbrook
Tamworth 330
Armidale
Dumaresq
Lismore
Tamworth 132
Gunnedah
Narrabri
Moree
Inverell Glen Innes
Tenterfield
Koolkhan
Coffs Harbour
Nambucca
Kempsey
Port Macquarie
Taree
Balranald
Coleambally
Murray
Upper Tumut
Lower Tumut
ANMJindera
Guthega
132 & 330
Avon
Wagga 132Burrinjuck
Wag
ga
330
Red Cliffs
Dederang
Wodonga
Bulli CreekMudgeeraba
Uranquinty
Gadara
Capital Wind Farm
RaleighDorrig
o
Wollar
Macksville
Boambee South
Bannaby
Wagga North
8E 8C
8M 8L 96L
Directlink
967
89
96R
96T966
87
96C
96H
965
9U2
96M
9U3
968
86
85969
97A
97B
88 84
83
5A6 5A7
5A5 5A381
8232 31
964
96P
94M
94B
947
948944
94X
72
79
94K
945
94T
94P94U
9987677999973
61
3910
18
16
854
9
99M
990
991
970
3
1/7792976/1
976/2
O7
O1
99499F
99J
99K
97K/2
97K/1
3C
979
97G6867
6665
64
O51
992
ex-975
99TX5/1
X5/3
X2
99L
99A
9R3
63
996
62
O60995
99B99H
9R19R2
96G
9W89W3
9W79W6
9W2
9W5
OX1
5A4
96F
8996N
993
9W9
9R6
9U4
Manildra94H
OrangeNorth
949
Williamsdale
978 97D
Stroud
Hawks Nest
Mudgee
Ilford
Burrendong
Geehi
Blowering
Murrumbateman
Casino
99P
O97B
3W
Canberra
Jindabyne97L
9C8 96
3
Morven
99Z
17
Mt P
iper
132
94E
3J
Herons Creek
11
INSETto Tomago
Wallerawang
Mt Piper500/330
INSETEraring
Vales Point
Regentville
SydneySouth
Liverpool
Vineyard
Ingleburn
to Bannaby
to Bayswater
to Liddell
Haymarket
Macarthur
toWallerawang
KempsCreek
Munmorah
Tuggerah
SydneyEast
NewcastleWaratah West
SydneyNorth
to Daptoto Avon
Beaconsfield West
5A1 5A232 31
8281
9496
9W
8295
90 9293
26
2M
24 92
23, 26
222521
2629
14 20
38
3230
14
13 12 41
42
11
76 7876
17
37
39
27 95992Z
932, 939
28
26
77
MountColah
Mount Druitt
Brandy Hill
Tomago9C5
9C8 to Stroud
One Steel
HolroydSydney West
1C1F
9C6
NEW SOUTH WALES TRANSMISSION ANNUAL PLANNING REPORT 2014 CONSUMER SUMMARY │ 2
TransGrid’s revenue comes from electricity bills, and comprises around 11% of the average electricity bill for NSW homes and small businesses.*
Our network
GENERATION
DISTRIBUTION
COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS CONSUMERS
RESIDENTIALCONSUMERS
DIRECT CONNECTCUSTOMERS
TRANSMISSION
TransmissionSubstation
Power Transformers
Power StationSolar FarmWind Farm
DistributionSubstation
TransGrid’s role in supplying electricity TransGrid’s network carries bulk electricity from generators through high voltage transmission lines, underground cables and substations. The high voltage electricity is then converted to low voltage electricity suitable for household consumption at substations closer to power users Distribution networks such as Ausgrid, Endeavour Energy and Essential Energy deliver electricity through smaller poles and wires to more than 3 million homes and businesses throughout NSW and the ACT.
*As at end of July 2014, excluding carbon price.
3 │ NEW SOUTH WALES TRANSMISSION ANNUAL PLANNING REPORT 2014 CONSUMER SUMMARY
Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC)
Makes and amends the National Electricity Rules and provides market development advice to governments
Australian Energy Regulator (AER)
Regulates the energy markets and networks under the national energy market legislation and rules
Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)
Operates the energy markets and systems and delivers planning advice in eastern and south eastern Australia
Facilitating the National Electricity MarketTransGrid’s network is interconnected to QLD and VIC, providing a strong electricity system that makes interstate energy trading possible. The NSW transmission system forms the backbone of the National Electricity Market.
About Our 2014 Transmission Annual Planning Report The Transmission Annual Planning Report is a key output from the NSW Annual Planning Review, the central vehicle by which TransGrid provides an assessment of the capabilities and constraints of our network for the upcoming 10 year period.
The report documents the process and outcomes of the review and provides advance information to market participants, consumers and other interested parties on the nature and location of capabilities and emerging constraints in TransGrid’s transmission network. It also includes information on the status of our network plans and projects as they evolve from need identification to completion.
The Transmission Annual Planning Report is one of a number of channels through which TransGrid provides information pertinent to transmission and distribution planning in the National Electricity Market.
The 2014 Transmission Annual Planning Report includes:
• outcomes of the annual planning review including planning analysis of network capabilities and constraints, and potential solutions within a 10 year planning horizon;
• completed, committed and planned projects; • energy and demand forecasts;• network replacement projects; and• opportunities to collaborate with providers of non-network solutions.
This information also forms an input to the preparation of the National Transmission Network Development Plan produced by the AEMO.
This summary is intended as an introduction to the key initiatives that are detailed in the full report.
ENERGY AND DEMAND FORECASTSTransmission network planning requires detailed planning, analysis and modelling by engineers. TransGrid’s state based energy and demand forecasts are prepared by AEMO, with extensive input by TransGrid. The key economic, price and demographic projections underpinning these forecasts are available from AEMO’s website. TransGrid also receives forecasts from connected distribution networks to assist in localised network planning.
NSW Energy ForecastsNSW energy consumption is forecast to increase by an average annual rate of 0.4% for the next 10 years. The main drivers of this growth are population and state income. This is partially offset by growth in rooftop PV solar, energy efficiency and electricity price. The following chart shows the historical trend and energy projections for NSW. TransGrid’s forecast based on the medium scenario.
NSW Region Energy Projections
NS
W R
egio
n E
nerg
y (G
Wh)
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
2023
/24
2022
/23
2021
/22
2020
/21
2019
/20
2018
/19
2017
/18
2016
/17
2015
/16
2014
/15
2013
/14
2012
/13
2011
/12
2010
/11
2009
/10
2008
/09
2007
/08
2006
/07
2005
/06
Estimate
AEMO 10% POE MediumActual AEMO 50% POE Medium
AEMO HighActual AEMO LowAEMO Medium
NSW Peak DemandThe peak demand projections in the full report indicate that summer maximum demand is forecast to increase at an annual average rate of 1.2% and winter maximum demand at 1.1% for the next 10 years.
TransGrid is a State Owned Corporation and like all other Australian electricity transmission network service providers, its operations are overseen by the Australian Energy Regulator. The Australian Energy Market Commission and Australian Energy Market Operator also have significant roles in the regulation and operation of the National Electricity Market.
NEW SOUTH WALES TRANSMISSION ANNUAL PLANNING REPORT 2014 CONSUMER SUMMARY │ 4
NSW Region 2013 Summer Demand Projections and Actual DemandsN
SW
Sum
mer
Pea
k D
eman
d (M
W)
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
2023
/24
2022
/23
2021
/22
2020
/21
2019
/20
2018
/19
2017
/18
2016
/17
2015
/16
2014
/15
2013
/14
2012
/13
2011
/12
2010
/11
2009
/10
2008
/09
2007
/08
2006
/07
2005
/06
AEMO 10% POE MediumActual AEMO 50% POE Medium
AEMO HighActual AEMO LowAEMO MediumNSW Region 2013 Winter Demand Projections and Actual Demands
NS
W W
inte
r P
eak
Dem
and
(MW
)
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
NON-NETWORK AND DEMAND MANAGEMENT OPTIONSTransGrid is committed to assessing non-network options alongside network solutions to address network constraints where it is feasible and cost-effective to do so. By taking this approach TransGrid can defer or avoid significant capital costs associated with network investment and deliver benefits to consumers through lower transmission costs.
In our planning we consider demand management solutions such as load curtailment or shifting, embedded generation, energy efficiency and energy conservation measures wherever these factors reduce load on the network. Non-network options are considered on an equal footing with network options when planning the network and applying the AER’s Regulatory Investment Test for Transmission (RIT-T).
Building upon previous projects undertaken in the 2009/10 to 2013/14 regulatory period, TransGrid plans to target its demand management innovation activities for the next five years in the areas of collaboration, market understanding and development, and technology trialling.
OPENING UP OUR PLANNING PROCESSESTransGrid understands that energy consumers are interested in its operations in terms of the prices they pay for electricity, their access to electricity when and where they need it and the financial, environmental and community impacts of our infrastructure.
We understand the importance of working with the community to find the most appropriate and holistic electricity solution, so TransGrid has established a new comprehensive consumer engagement program, thus giving consumers a voice in the development of TransGrid’s plans.
In opening our planning processes we have redefined the way in which we engage with the community on capital works programs to improve how we plan and deliver projects to communities. Conversations with the community will start in the early planning stages, when a need is identified to address an energy problem, and give communities a say in the development of TransGrid’s plans.
Our new stakeholder engagement process is proactive and transparent. It is based on meaningful, open and honest engagement; focuses on listening to feedback; incorporating and addressing stakeholder views in our business plans; and responding to and acting upon stakeholder feedback.
Identity Need
Decision Gate 0: Planning Funds
Approval
Regulatory ConsultationStakeholder Engagement
Network Support Consultation
Community Consultation
Planning & Environmental Approvals
Stage 1: Identify Need
Stage 2: Review Options
Stage 4: Implement Solution
Stage 3: Planning Detail
Compile Program
Evaluate Options
Develop Project
Establish Contract
Deliver Project
Finalise Project
Decision Gate 1: Project
Commencement
Decision Gate 2: Project
Determination
Decision Gate 3: Financial & Contractual
Commitment
THE NETWORK PLANNING PROCESS
5 │ NEW SOUTH WALES TRANSMISSION ANNUAL PLANNING REPORT 2014 CONSUMER SUMMARY
COMPLETED, COMMITTED AND PLANNED DEVELOPMENTS*
Recently completed development Completed works from 2012/13 to 2013/14:
Project Location Purpose Status
Construction of short sections of 330 kV line NSW Mid North Coast Increase the capacity of the transmission system to meet present limitations
Completed
Installation of 132 kV transmission line between Tarro and Essential Energy’s Stroud substation
NSW Mid North Coast Increase the capacity of the transmission system to meet present limitations
Completed
Connection of Essential Energy’s Heron’s Creek substation to TransGrid’s Taree-Port Macquarie 132 kV line
NSW Mid North Coast Maintain reliable supply to Lew/Laurieton area with backup
Completed
Installation of control devises on existing equipment NSW New England Northern Tablelands
Power quality control Completed
Wallerawang substation replacement NSW Central Tablelands Condition based replacement to maintain reliable supply
Completed
Installation of a cable link between Beaconsfield West & Haymarket substations
NSW Inner Metropolitan Sydney
Maintain reliable supply Completed
Replacement of shunt reactors at Murray switching station & Yass substation
NSW Snowy Mountains Maintain voltage control and relieve constraints on the Canberra to Kangaroo Valley 330 kV transmission line
Completed
Connection of Gullen Range Wind Farm to a new switching station
NSW Southern Tablelands Connecting renewable energy to the network
Completed
Transformer & reactor replacement program
NSW Central Tablelands, New England Northern Tablelands, North West Slopes, Inner Metropolitan Sydney, and Snowy Mountains.
Condition based replacement to maintain reliable supply
Completed
Replacement of secondary system at Tumut substation
NSW Riverina Condition based replacement to maintain reliable supply
Completed
MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM Some of TransGrid’s assets were built during the establishment of the transmission network in the 1950s and 1960s and are now reaching the end of their serviceable lives. TransGrid has set prudent assessment standards to ensure that the long term interests of consumers are at the forefront of the network planning decision making process. We propose an asset renewal program comprising of replacement and refurbishment based on condition and forecast need. We consider this program as essential to ensure the safety of staff, contractors and the public, and to maintain a reliable electricity supply.
TransGrid’s asset management system has been independently reviewed against the newly released international standard ISO55001. As a result of that review TransGrid is expecting to attain full certification later this year to ensure international best practice asset management standards continue to be achieved.
NETWORK DEVELOPMENT TransGrid is proactive in its response to the changing energy landscape. As energy usage patterns change, TransGrid will continue providing a level of reliability that consumers are satisfied with at the most efficient cost.
We undertake comprehensive planning and analysis processes to assess network capabilities and identify the areas of the network where limitations are expected to emerge in the future. These limitations could be addressed with non-network and/or network solutions.
The energy and demand forecasts form a fundamental input to this process in identifying the areas of the network that require investment. Planning and development of the network is undertaken on a cyclical and needs basis to ensure that transmission service delivery to our customers is cost-effective, environmentally responsible, responsive to changing requirements and meets the jurisdictional, contractual and national electricity rules obligations.
NEW SOUTH WALES TRANSMISSION ANNUAL PLANNING REPORT 2014 CONSUMER SUMMARY │ 6
Committed developmentsCommitted and underway network solutions, which have financial and contractual commitments; are under development; and have passed Decision Gate 3 of TransGrid’s Network Investment Process:
Project Location Purpose Status
Orange substation replacement NSW Central West Condition based replacement to maintain reliable supply
CommittedDue Q2 2017
Western Sydney Supply substation, line & cable installations (with Ausgrid)
NSW Sydney CBD & Western Sydney
Maintain reliable supply UnderwayDue Q3 2014
Munmorah Power Station 330 kV generator disconnection
NSW Central Coast Retirement of power station UnderwayDue Q3/4 2014
Upper Tumut switching station rehabilitation NSW Snowy Mountains Condition based replacement to maintain reliable supply
UnderwayDue Q1 2015
Murray–Guthega 132 kV line remediation
NSW Snowy Mountains Remediation to restore capacity to maintain reliable supply
UnderwayDue Q4 2014
Cooma substation replacement NSW Snowy Mountains Condition based replacement to maintain reliable supply
Underway Due Q4 2015
Yanco substation refurbishment NSW South West Condition based replacement to maintain reliable supply
Underway Due Q3 2015
Capacity upgrade of Yass–Bannaby 330 kV & Gullen Range–Yass 330 kV lines
NSW Southern Tablelands Maintain reliable supply UnderwayDue Q4 2014/Q1 2015
Transformer replacement at Newcastle, Griffith & Yanco substations
NSW Hunter & South West Condition based replacement to maintain reliable supply
UnderwayDue Q4 2014
Capacitor Bank replacement at Canberra, Yass & Orange substations
ACT, NSW Southern Tablelands & Central West
Maintain adequate power transfer capability
UnderwayDue Q4 2014–Q2 2017
Upcoming planned developmentsProposed network solutions which have completed the regulatory process but are not yet committed projects or are exempt from the regulatory process:
Project Location Purpose Status
Remediation of Wallerawang to Sydney South/Ingleburn 330 kV lines
NSW Central Tablelands and Sydney South
Meet quality of supply requirements Proposed
Establishment of Wallaroo switching station and associated 330 kV line connections
NSW Southern Tablelands and ACT
Meet jurisdictional reliability requirements in the ACT
Proposed
Installation of switchbays at Sydney West and Williamsdale substations
NSW Western Sydney and Southern Tablelands
Meet electricity distributor requirements
Proposed
Quality of supply monitors at 13 strategic customer connection points
Various Assist in meeting national electricity rules requirements
Proposed
Condition based replacement of assets nearing the end of its serviceable life
Various Maintain reliability Proposed
Installation of monitors to record real time line capabilities
Various Monitor weather conditions & conductor temperature to improve short-term forecasting
Proposed
* This is not a complete or definitive list and further information is contained in the Transmission Annual Planning Report 2014 chapters 6 and 7. The regulatory consultation process is underway for the Queensland – NSW Interconnector (QNI) transmission capacity project.
NETWORK CONSTRAINTSAs part of its Annual Planning Review, TransGrid has identified a number of possible constraints for their planning and consultation including:
Constraints expected within five years• Supply to the Gunnedah/Narrabri area;• ‘Powering Sydney’s Future’ supply to the Sydney Inner
Metropolitan area;• Sydney South – Beaconsfield network capacity;• Supply to the Beryl/Mudgee area;• Connection of Ausgrid’s new subtransmission substation
in the Munmorah/Doyalson area;• Condition of Munmorah, Vales Point, Canberra, Burrinjuck
and Wagga substations;• Condition of Wallerawang – Orange North 132 kV line; and• Snowy to Sydney network capacity.
Constraints expected within five to ten years
• Tamworth and Armidale 330 kV Switchyards;• Hunter Valley – Tamworth – Armidale 330 kV
system capacity;• Voltage control in Northern NSW;• Supply to the Forster/Tuncurry area; and• Capacity of Marulan – Avon, Marulan – Dapto,
and Kangaroo Valley – Dapto Lines.
DISCLAIMER
The New South Wales 2014 Transmission Annual Planning Report, the Outline and the Consumer Summary are prepared and made available solely for information purposes. Nothing in these documents can be or should be taken as a recommendation in respect of any possible investment.
The information in these documents reflect the forecasts, proposals and opinions adopted by TransGrid as at 30 June 2014 other than where otherwise specifically stated. Those forecasts, proposals and opinions may change at any time without warning. Anyone considering these documents at any date should independently seek the latest forecasts, proposals and opinions.
These documents include information obtained from AEMO and other sources. That information has been adopted in good faith without further enquiry or verification.
The information in these documents should be read in the context of the Electricity Statement of Opportunities and the National Transmission Network Development Plan published by AEMO and other relevant regulatory consultation documents. It does not purport to contain all of the information that AEMO, a prospective investor or Registered Participant or potential participant in the NEM, or any other person or Interested Parties may require for making decisions. In preparing these documents it is not possible nor is it intended for TransGrid to have regard to the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of each person or organisation which reads or uses these documents.
In all cases, anyone proposing to rely on or use the information in these documents should:
1. Independently verify and check the currency, accuracy, completeness, reliability and suitability of that information;
2. Independently verify and check the currency, accuracy, completeness, reliability and suitability of reports relied on by TransGrid in preparing these documents; and
3. Obtain independent and specific advice from appropriate experts
or other source.s.
Accordingly TransGrid makes no representations or warranty as to the currency, accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability for particular purposes of the information in these documents. Persons reading or utilising the New South Wales 2014 Transmission Annual Planning Report, the Outline and the Consumer Summary acknowledge and accept that TransGrid and/or its employees, agents and consultants shall have no liability (including liability to any person by reason of negligence or negligent misstatement) for any statements, opinions, information or matter (expressed or implied) arising out of, contained in or derived from, or for any omissions from, the information in these documents, except insofar as liability under any New South Wales and Commonwealth statute cannot be excluded.
Copies of the Transmission Annual Planning Report for 2014 are available from TransGrid:
180 Thomas St, Sydney NSW 2000 PO BOX A1000, Sydney South NSW 1235 T (02) 9284 3000 | F (02) 9284 3456
© State of New South Wales through TransGrid 2014.
All rights reserved.
ABN 19 622 755 774
www.transgrid.com.au