New Orleans Economic Outlook

New Orleans Economic Outlook

Janet F. Speyrer, Ph.D.Associate Dean for Research

College of Business AdministrationThe University of New Orleans

June 22, 2012

Percent Change in Real U.S. GDPFe

b-80

Feb-

82

Feb-

84

Feb-

86

Feb-

88

Feb-

90

Feb-

92

Feb-

94

Feb-

96

Feb-

98

Feb-

00

Feb-

02

Feb-

04

Feb-

06

Feb-

08

Feb-

10

Feb-

12

Feb-

14

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Source: GSU Economic Forecasting Center

Unemployment Rates by StateMay 2012

ND

SD

NE

KS

TX

OK

MN

WI

AR

IL

IA

LA

MS

MO

WA

ORID

WY

MT

CA

NVUT

AZ

CO

HIAK

NM

ME

NY

SC

AL

FL

GA

IN

KYNC

OHPA

TN

VAWV

MI

VTNHMARICTNJDEMDDC

Initial Unemployment ClaimsNew Orleans Metro vs. US (Monthly)

Indexed to 1999 normal levelsSource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Louisiana Workforce Commission

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

New Orleans Metro US

Per Capita Personal Income New Orleans Metro vs. US

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

New Orleans Metro* US

*Revised to show 2010 Census population figuresSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis, DBER

N. O. Area Average Weekly Wage 20

05 Q

2

2005

Q4

2006

Q2

2006

Q4

2007

Q2

2007

Q4

2008

Q2

2008

Q4

2009

Q2

2009

Q4

2010

Q2

2010

Q4

2011

Q2

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

659.892029088513

856.83563815212

787858

798881 833

921835

932854

962875

Includes 8 parish area: New Orleans Metro plus St. James parishSource: Louisiana Workforce Commission

Bankruptcies per Capita Eastern District of LA vs. US (Quarterly)

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2010

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2011

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2012

Q1

0.00%

0.02%

0.04%

0.06%

0.08%

0.10%

0.12%

0.14%

0.16%

East District LA US

Source: Eastern District Court of Louisiana, American Bankruptcy Institute*For the 2011 & 2012 per capita figures, the 2010 population estimates were used

Foreclosures per HouseholdNew Orleans Metro vs. US

2007

Avg

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2010

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2011

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2012

Q1

2012

Q2

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

New Orleans Metro US

Perc

enta

ge

Source: RealtyTrac *For the 2011 & 2012 per capita figures, the 2010 population estimates were used

New Orleans Metro Job Overview

• The New Orleans metro area had 609,600 jobs in 2005 before Katrina.

• At the low point after the storm, the area had just 425,800 jobs (70% of pre-Katrina).

• By May 2012, employment in New Orleans had grown to 528,100 jobs (86.6% ).

• By the fourth quarter of 2013, 531,000 jobs are forecast (87.1%).

N. O. Metro Total EmploymentPer Month

Jan-

03

Jul-0

3

Jan-

04

Jul-0

4

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650603.7

425.8

528.1 527.6

Jobs

(100

0's)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, DBER

New Orleans Jobs by Industry (% pre-Katrina)Total Nonfarm Employment

Min-ing & Logging

Construction

Manufacturing

Durable Goods

Nondurable Goods

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Infor

mation

Financial Activities

Professio

nal, Scientific,

Technical

Educatio

nal

Services

Leisure

and Hospitality

Other

Services

Government

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

Lowest after Katrina Added in 6 Years Added in 2012 (5 mos.)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

N. O. Metro Construction Activity Per Month

2004 2005 pre-K

2005 post-K

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (5 mos)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Non-building Non-residential Residential

$ M

illio

ns

Source: McGraw Hill Construction, Dodge

New Orleans Metro Total Population19

60

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

969

1,125

1,3291,349

673

1,193

Sources: US Census, GCR & Assoc., System Solutions Consulting

Jefferson

Orleans

Plaquemines

St. Bernard

St. Charle

s

St. John

St. Tammany

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,0002005 Pre-K2005 Oct2011 Nov2012 May

Parish Population

Sources: US Census, DBER estimates, Greater New Orleans Community Data Center

New Orleans Metro Taxable SalesJu

l-02

Jan-

03

Jul-0

3

Jan-

04

Jul-0

4

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

$0.0

$250,000,000.0

$500,000,000.0

$750,000,000.0

$1,000,000,000.0

$1,250,000,000.0

Includes 5 parish area: Plaquemines & Jefferson not included

Total Tonnage Moving Through thePort of New Orleans

1989

-119

89-4

1990

-319

91-2

1992

-119

92-4

1993

-319

94-2

1995

-119

95-4

1996

-319

97-2

1998

-119

98-4

1999

-320

00-2

2001

-120

01-4

2002

-320

03-2

2004

-120

04-4

2005

-320

06-2

2007

-120

07-4

2008

-320

09-2

2010

-120

10-4

2011

-3

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

Exports Imports

Mill

ions

of t

ons

Source: Port of New Orleans

Crude Oil and Natural Gas PricesJa

n-02

May

-02

Sep-

02Ja

n-03

May

-03

Sep-

03Ja

n-04

May

-04

Sep-

04Ja

n-05

May

-05

Sep-

05Ja

n-06

May

-06

Sep-

06Ja

n-07

May

-07

Sep-

07Ja

n-08

May

-08

Sep-

08Ja

n-09

May

-09

Sep-

09Ja

n-10

May

-10

Sep-

10Ja

n-11

May

-11

Sep-

11Ja

n-12

May

-12

May

-13$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

Oil Gas

$ pe

r bar

rel o

il

$ pe

r mcf

gas

Source: Georgia State University

Hotel Room Capacity

Hotel Oc-cupancy

Rate

Accomodation Jobs

Airport Capac-ity

Passenger Deplane-

ments

Casino Ad-missions

State Parks and Welcome Cen-

ters

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2005 Post-K 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Louisiana Office of Tourism, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, STR

Tourism Indicators Compared to Seasonal Pre-Katrina Levels