New mobility trends outstripping German Gemütlichkeit? Patterns of emigration in Germany 16th International Metropolis Conference Workshop “Under-explored.

New mobility trends outstripping German Gemütlichkeit?

Patterns of emigration in Germany

16th International Metropolis Conference Workshop “Under-explored aspects of emigration: observations from developed countries”, 14 September 2011

Bernd ParuselElena AntoniGerman National Contact Point of the EMNFederal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF)

Structure

1. Defining and measuring emigration

2. Emigration of foreign nationals 3. Policy measures to address the emigration of foreign

nationals

4. Emigration of German nationals5. Policy measures to address the emigration of

Germans

6. Emigration in media and politics

7. Emigration patterns: worrying for nothing?

8. Conclusion

1 Defining and measuring “emigration”

• Persons giving up their principle residency in Germany have to give notice to the registration office

• Those persons are then statistically recorded as emigrants

• The length or purpose of emigration cannot be recorded

2 EMIGRATION OF FOREIGNERS

2.1 Emigration patterns of foreignersInflows / outflows

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

Figure 1: migration patterns of foreigners

immigration to Germany (foreigners only)emigration from Germany (foreigners only)

2.1 Emigration patterns of foreignersNet migration flows

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

20000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Figure 2: Net migration flows 2000-2009 (foreigners only)

Net migration flows (foreigners only)

2.1 Emigration patterns of foreignersGroups of foreigners and their migration behavior

Groups that generally stay permanently: • Late resettlers (ethnic Germans), Jewish

immigrants, people immigrating for the purpose of family reunion, recognized refugees

Groups that are characterized by temporary stay:

• Labor migrants, especially from central and eastern Europe

• Often seasonal workers, intra-EU migrants, students

2.1 Emigration patterns of foreignersEmigration based on duration of stay and nationalities

Emigration reflects the history of migration to Germany:

• More than 1/4of all Greek, Croatian and Turkish citizens that

emigrated in 2009 had been staying in Germany for 30 years or longer (“old” countries of origin)

• More than 3/4of all citizens from Poland, Slovakia, the Czech

Republic and Hungary had been staying less than four years

• More than 1/2of all citizens from Romania, Bulgaria and Brazil had

been staying less than a year (“new” countries of origin)

2.1 Emigration patterns of foreignersEmigration according to last residence permit

(purpose of stay, 2009)

perma-nent res-

idency14%

education18%

em-ploy-ment15%Family reasons

11%

rejected asylum seekers

7%

others36%

2.2 Explaining emigration patterns of foreignersStudies on Emigration of Turkish nationals

• TASD-Study: interviews with 254 Turkish academics and students concerning their plans on leaving Germany*

36% say they want to move back to Turkey because of:– “not feeling at home in Germany” (41%) – job related reasons (25%) – economical reasons (9%)– family reasons may also matter

• Study of the Info GmbH and Liljeberg Research International: interviews with 300 German and Turkish nationals**

– 42% plan to return to Turkey - more young than older people

– 21% see Germany as their “home country”, 38% see both Germany and Turkey as their “home countries” and 37% only Turkey

2.2 Explaining emigration patterns of foreignersPossible explanations for emigration in general

• Difficulty of having foreign qualifications recognized in Germany

• Lack of a strategic provision of services to assist migrants with orientation on the job market

• Not feeling welcome

• Probably various soft factors, such as: difficult language, weather conditions, …

3 Measures imposed to address the emigration of foreigners

• New regulations to improve conditions for working and staying in Germany for foreign graduates (expected)

• Improved recognition of foreign qualifications (planned)

• Efforts to improve integration

• “Welcome culture”

4 EMIGRATION OF GERMANS

4.1 Emigration patterns of GermansMigration patterns of Germans

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Figure 4: Migration patterns of Germans: 2000-2009

Germans returning to Germanyemigration from Germany (Germans only)

4.1 Emigration patterns of Germans:Net migration flows

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009-80000

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

Figure 5: Net migration flows (Germans only)

4.1 Emigration patterns of GermansMain countries of destination

Switzerland15.9%

US8.7%

Poland7.8%

Austria7.6%

UK5.9%Spain

5.1%France4.7%

Turkey3.0%

Canada2.7%

Netherlands2.5%

others36.1%

Figure 6: Main countries of destination for German emigrants (2009) Total number of German emigrants: 154,988.

4.1 Emigration patterns of Germans

• German emigrants consist both of “classical emigrants” that move away permanently and “temporary emigrants”

• Especially highly-educated Germans leave*– 43% of Germans emigrating have a university

degree (comp. to 29% of the non-mobile society)

– 36% scientists– 18% technicians – 19% managers

4.2 Explaining emigration patterns of Germans

Push Factors: Situation in Germany that make emigration more likely (e.g.

working conditions, salary).

Pull Factors: Positive conditions in country of destination

• All high-qualified employees and executives: pull factors decisive: higher wages, better standards of

living, career opportunities• Scientists:

push factors dominate: employment and research situation in Germany not perceived as attractive

5 POLICY MEASURES TO ADDRESS THE EMIGRATION OF GERMANS

Picture on the right: Program North-Rhine-

Westphalia to promote the return of highly talented young

scientists from abroad.

5 Policy measures to address the emigration of Germans

Measures to address the emigration of scientists (I)

• Resolution of the federal cabinet for the establishment of a Law on scientific freedomObjective: increase autonomy and independence of

research institutions

• Establishment of the “Junior Professor”Objective: enable young scientists to research and teach

independently

• New remuneration system for university professorsMake Germany more attractive for highly-skilled academics

and professionals

5 Policy measures to address the emigration of Germans

Measures to address the emigration of scientists (II)

• “High-tech-strategy”

• “Excellence initiative”funding of research clusters and graduate colleges

• Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia: promote return of talented scientists from abroad

• Grants and awards from foundations

5 Policy measures to address the emigration of Germans

Measures to address emigration in general

• Return initiatives esp. in eastern Germanyvirtual job portals encouraging people to return

• Social security agreements with various countries of destination with regard to pension insuranceSo that time spent abroad can be included in insurance

periods

• Improvement of structures to reconcile work and family life

6 Emigration in the media and politics

• Discussion about “Brain Drain” in Germany: fear to lose the most talented brains, especially in research, medicine

• Fear of increasing shortcomings in the number of high-qualified employees, especially doctors, nurses and engineers

Concerning emigration of foreigners:• Criticism of Germany lacking a “welcoming

attitude”

7 Emigration patterns of GermansA lot of worrying for nothing?

• Especially highly educated Germans emigrate, however the willingness to return is high

• OECD: German “brain drain” often overestimated:regarding highly-skilled labor overall, Germany is more of an import- than an export country*

8 Conclusion - The “problem” of emigration?

• Emigration of highy qualified persons is a problem for a country that faces labour shortages

• However: Increased mobility is a general trend of our time (reflects globalization and EU integration)

• Emigration can also be of advantage for Germany (benefits through circular movements, “brain circulation”)

• Emigration of foreigners: A different attitude and integration approach in Germany necessary?

Thank you for your attention!

Dr. Bernd ParuselFederal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF)German National Contact Point of the [email protected]