New Malaysia Responsive Leaders, Participative Rakyat Ali ...

Mohd Nizam Mohd AliSoh Mey Lee

A New Malaysia

Responsive Leaders, Participative Rakyat

First Printing, 2018

© Malaysian Institute of Integrity, 2018

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or in any information

storage and retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the Malaysian Institute of Integrity.

Published in Malaysia by

Malaysian Institute of Integrity

Menara Integriti, Persiaran Tuanku Syed Sirajuddin

Off Jln Tuanku Abdul Rahman, 50480 Kuala Lumpur

Perpustakaan Negara Malaysia Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Mohd. Nizam Mohd. AliA New Malaysia : Integrity Responsive Leaders, Participative Rakyat / Mohd Nizam Mohd Ali, Soh Mey Lee.ISBN 978-967-5091-58-21. Public admininistration--Moral and ethical aspects--Malaysia2. Civil service ethics--Malaysia. I. Soh, Mey Lee. II. Title.351.109595

Dicetak olehLEGASI PRESS SDN BHD

No 17A, Jalan Helang SewahTaman Kepong Baru, Kepong

52100 Kuala Lumpur

5 A N e w M a l a y s i a : I n t e g r i t y ~ R e s p o n s i v e Le a d e r s , Pa r t i c i p a t i v e R a k ya t

Contents Foreword 2 - 3

Developing the Scenario agenda and the scenario horizon 4 - 18

The Scenarios

• Scenario 1: Truly Happy Malaysia 19 - 28

• Scenario 2: Shadow Play 29 - 39

• Scenario 3: Highway to Hell 40 - 51

• Scenario 4: Beast and Beauty 52 - 61

Post Remarkable Persons Review 62 - 67

Acknowledgement

The Malaysian Institute of Integrity (IIM) would like to thank YBhg. Tan Sri Hamid Bugo, a senior member of IIM Board of Directors, for his astute guidance and leadership in this Scenario Planning: Integrity project. We would also wish to record our gratitude to YBhg. Tan Sri Dr Sulaiman Mahbob and YBhg. Dato’ Sutinah Sutan for their respective inputs throughout the project period. Similar gratitude and thanks to Haji Yasir Abdul Rahman, (former) Director of PETRONAS Leadership Centre (PLC) for his able counsel and advisory in undertaking the project. IIM would also like to acknowledge with thanks, to each and every member of the project team for their active and passionate participation in the project 2-day workshop - in developing and completing the four scenarios of integrity under the facilitating guidance of Ms Soh Mey Lee, the project consultant and IIM Private Sector team as the organizing secretariat.


ForewordThe Scenario Planning: Integrity project is part of the Malaysian Institute of Integrity’s strategic approach to understand the future of Malaysia given the key concerns with regard to societal values and the uncertainties in the current as well as the future socio-economic and political landscape of Malaysia that could have an impact as we forge into the future.

The main objective of the project is intended to stretch our thinking and imagination about the future, which may turn out in more than one possible way that we know – or generally, the “business as usual” way. It provides a well-tested management methodology for strategic thinkers to think of the unthinkable, so that we are better prepared to handle and manage elements of surprises and uncertainties.

Scenario stories help to encourage us to improve the quality of strategic conversation in order to create a common language and understanding about the future.

The underlying premise of scenario planning techniques is that if the future is uncertain, then there are in fact, multiple equally plausible futures, which are known as scenarios. However, not everything in the future is uncertain; there are always elements of the future which are quite predictable because of the consequences of underlying causal structure such as temporal order of events and related behaviour or co-variance between variables.

The gist of scenario planning is to reduce uncertainty by uncovering the underlying structure which gives rise to predetermined elements in the outside world and provides an understanding of what is fundamentally unpredictable. The goal of scenario planning then is not to predict the future, but to enable us to stretch our thinking and challenge our mental models in order to examine trends and discontinuities.

Scenarios enable us to anticipate a range of possible alternative futures and to explore the implications of these futures, ultimately, through strategic conversations, help us to develop plans to cope with them. Having done this, we hope to be well-equipped to proactively modify our strategic direction as actual events unfold.

The scenarios are crafted to enable us to understand the different plausible futures so that we can identify the key concerns and potential risks to enable us to formulate more robust strategies and policies that will help us to better manage risks and be more prepared to react to change.


By promoting a scenario-thinking culture, cross-functional or multi-disciplinary teams can work together to frame better quality decisions, policies or strategies. The foregoing scenarios as per documented herein are presented to serve as guiding sign posts for each Malaysians to reflect and reason out its respective plausibility. The project was initiated and completed in 2013 to project worst-case/best-case scenarios onto a 7-year time horizon of 2014/2020. To publish it now is apt.

May God help guiding us to find our true path to reach the common destiny of good governance and integrity in this new Malaysia. May our leaders listen to our voice of conscience and be accountable to the rakyat of Malaysia that gave them the sacred trust of hope to lead us home. Integrity finally, in its proper definition, is ‘being true and honest to your own self’ as my Teacher says.

Mohd Nizam Mohd Ali, Ph.D*Scenario Planning: Integrity Project Team LeaderKuala Lumpur: 9 June 2018

*Nizam Ali is the Senior Director of the Malaysian Institute of Integrity since its establishment in 2004 who provides institutional consultancy to stakeholders in areas of governance and integrity system. He is contactable via email [email protected] or mobile +60193552061.


At the start of the scenario development project, a facilitated discussion was held to establish the scenario agenda. The following are the key concerns of the team members about the future of societal values of Malaysia.

1. Erosion of values as society is driven by greed and materialism and little recognition for noble values - is it due to liberalism and Westernisation?

2. System of cultivating a culture of dependency3. Women play bigger role at work and in business – the emergence of the “Superwoman”4. Apathy and rampant “tidak apa” attitude5. Lack of caring attitude or volunteerism and mindfulness culture - Selfish interest first6. People lack a sense of direction on where the country is heading – doubtful of Vision 2020

(Yawning gap between vision & reality)7. Benchmark standards are low ranking 8. Declining productivity – take medical certificates9. Lack of knowledge-seeking culture10. Best in class – Goals are questionable- Mediocrity is acceptable?11. Compliance, integrity and governance becoming a major concern – poor trust or distrust

in the system12. Gossips sells vs. facts – role of social media13. Quality of life – deteriorating due to high crime

The Scenario HorizonThe team discussed and agreed that the scenario project will look into a seven year scenario horizon from 2013 to 2020. The scenario horizon is established as a guide for team members to look into the future, up to end of year 2020. However, scenarios are stories about the future. Hence, the timing of the uncertainty or a scenario event is not as important as the range of uncertainties that the team is able to flag out during the scenario development process. What is stressed as more important is for the team to flag out the emergent novel realities, or in scenario planning terminology, the “AHA” factors – WWDKWDK (what we don’t know we don’t know).

Scenario planning allows team members to think of the unthinkable, things that they are unable to raise and discuss comfortably in a typical work environment. By creating stories of the future, the team members have the liberty and creativity to think out of the box and extrapolate them in events that take the form of scenario logics, each with causal effects and linkages that weave nicely into a complete scenario story.

Developing the Scenario agenda and the scenario horizon


Generation of ideas by the team lead to various idea clusters

• Leadership

• Relativity

• Crime

• Mentality

• Respect

• Societal Values

• Family values

• Public Service

• Transparency and Governance

• Public Policy and education

• Politics

• Media, ICT, Technology

• Beliefs

• Quality of life

• Global Issues

• Economics


A deep dive into some of the clusters to converge the team’s understanding reveals the systemic connectivity of events

EROSION OF FAMILY VALUESEROSION OF FAMILY VALUES

Poor Parenting

skills

Sense of hopelessness and neglect

EVENTS

PATTERNS

STRUCTURE

High Divorce rate

Breakdown of family

Children are neglected

Maids are easily affordable

Children are raised by maids

Money and toys pacify kids

Gadgets provide comfort

Cyber cafes and truancy

from schools

Rising drug abuses by youths

Youths are subject to bad influences

Communication breakdown in families

Negative Values

Rude youths

Rebellious youths

Rising cases of child abuses

Wasting time “Lepak”

Wrong company

Digitalised world

Rising Gangsterism at schools

Unproductive adults contribute to

unemploymentPoor anger management

Rising crime ratesCheats

Poor schooling performance

No Respect for eldersGeneration gap

Loss of human touchAbandonment of babies

Lack/poor enforcement of law and public policy



SOCIETAL VALUES

EVENTS

PATTERNS

STRUCTURE

“Kiasu” – status symbol

Career orientation

Consumerism

Brand consciousness

Sense of desperation

Rising cost of living

High personal debt

- Joneses

‘Along’

Selfish

TV influence – Peer Pressure

Get rich quick schemes

Geneva Schemes

Rising corruption

Declining productivity

Breakdown of family values

Theft and rising crime

Dual Career families

Moonlighting

Individualistic

$ driven

Arrogance

Decrease accountability

Self centered “ME”

Erosion

Non Ethical activities

Greed

Lack of trust

Lack in discipline

Poor caring attitude

Lack sense of oneness

SOCIETAL VALUESEROSION OF FAMILY VALUES

Poor Parenting

skills

Sense of hopelessness and neglect

EVENTS

PATTERNS

STRUCTURE

High Divorce rate

Breakdown of family

Children are neglected

Maids are easily affordable

Children are raised by maids

Money and toys pacify kids

Gadgets provide comfort

Cyber cafes and truancy

from schools

Rising drug abuses by youths

Youths are subject to bad influences

Communication breakdown in families

Negative Values

Rude youths

Rebellious youths

Rising cases of child abuses

Wasting time “Lepak”

Wrong company

Digitalised world

Rising Gangsterism at schools

Unproductive adults contribute to

unemploymentPoor anger management

Rising crime ratesCheats

Poor schooling performance

No Respect for eldersGeneration gap

Loss of human touchAbandonment of babies

Lack/poor enforcement of law and public policy


EVENTS

PATTERNS

STRUCTURE

Lack of confidence

Political patronage

Mediocre

Poor management

Incompetency

DNA of leaders not specified

Manipulation

Favoritism

‘People’ – tidak apa

Poor calibre of leaders elected

Flattery

‘legal system cumbersome’

Power distance

Loopholes in processes and policies are exploited

Lack trustworthiness

Focus on own legacy vs national interest

Self interest

Power abuse

Cronyism

Nepotism

Control

Don’t walk the talk

Personal agenda

Poor role model


Leadership

People lack sense of direction


EVENTS

PATTERNS

STRUCTURE

Lack of confidence

Political patronage

Mediocre

Poor management

Incompetency

DNA of leaders not specified

Manipulation

Favoritism

‘People’ – tidak apa

Poor calibre of leaders elected

Flattery

‘legal system cumbersome’

Power distance

Loopholes in processes and policies are exploited

Lack trustworthiness

Focus on own legacy vs national interest

Self interest

Power abuse

Cronyism

Nepotism

Control


Personal agenda

Poor role model


Mentality

EVENTS

PATTERNS

STRUCTURE

Resource- rich create dependency

Growing selfishness

Upbringing

Poor ownership

Irresponsibility

Social system and Education not focus

on teaching responsibility

Couldn’t careless attitude

Poor accountabilityNot answerable

“Tai-chi” and finger pointing

Blame culture

Inconveniences – leading to poorer

quality of life

Anger

Stress

3rd world mentality

Individualism

BAU

Lack /Not thinking

Control


Mistakes



Transparency and Governance

EVENTS

PATTERNS

STRUCTURE

Lack knowledge

capture

Lack knowledge repository

Poor documentation

Poor record keeping

Bureaucracy

Red tapes

Lack implementation

structure

Too many vehicles

Think big

Lost of translation of

rules/ policies

Selective/ poor enforcement and execution

Poor planning

Increase cost of doing business

Corruption

Lack of consequence management

Lack independence of judiciary

Lack punishment

Role of ‘judiciary/ judges’

Lack of courage/ trust

3rd world mentality

IndividualismPoor

compliance

Weak process

Tight controls

Lack reference

Bad structure

Dualism

Power abuse


EVENTS

PATTERNS

STRUCTURE

Lack knowledge

capture

Lack knowledge repository

Poor documentation

Poor record keeping

Bureaucracy

Red tapes

Lack implementation

structure

Too many vehicles

Think big

Lost of translation of

rules/ policies

Selective/ poor enforcement and execution

Poor planning

Increase cost of doing business

Corruption

Lack of consequence management

Lack independence of judiciary

Lack punishment

Role of ‘judiciary/ judges’

Lack of courage/ trust

3rd world mentality

IndividualismPoor

compliance

Weak process

Tight controls

Lack reference

Bad structure

Dualism

Power abuse


Crime

EVENTS

PATTERNS

STRUCTURE

Cybercafes

Lack security/safety

Underworld

Connection to international

syndicates

Influx of illegals

Urban poor

Break ins

Poor law enforcement

Foreign guards

Lack of trust/confidence

Lower investment by businesses

Gated communities

Higher unemployment

Rising organised crime

Talent drain

Gangs

Drugs

Corruption

Guns/Weapons

Fraud / Trafficking

Money laundering


No. Key Dimension Votes Ranking

1 Leadership 18 2

2 Societal Values 5 3

3 Family 4 4

4 Mentality 3 5

5 Crime 0

6 Transparency & Governance/ Public policy & Public service

20 1

Crime is deemed to be the end result of all other drivers The team felt that transparency, governance, public policy and public services are somewhat underlined by common features

The Scenario Development process

Based on the key concern clusters, the team took a vote on the two most important drivers that can affect the integrity model of the nation’s future.


More Predictable

Least predictable

More ImpactLess Impact

CRIME

TRANSPARENCY & GOVERNANCE/ POLICIES/ PUBLIC

SERVICE

SOCIETAL VALUES

LEADERSHIP

FAMILY

MENTALITY

However, when the scenario impact/predictability matrix is applied, leadership and societal values appears to be the key drivers that have the most impact and are less predictable. The team felt that mentality and family values also constituted societal values. Leadership influences transparency, governance, policies and public service delivery. The team concluded that societal values and leadership quality and behaviours could be the critical uncertainties that can impact the country’s future integrity values and model

Scenario impact/predictability matrix


The two key drivers – societal values and leadership behaviour - were selected to form the

key dimensions of the Scenario Matrix. The team felt that four scenarios are possible.

Conscience-driven, civic consciousness

Apathy & not participative

PassiveResponsiveLeadership

Societal Values

• Government or Leaders are responsive

• Society is civil/ Conscientious

• Quality of Life

• Government is responsive

• Society do not care/apathy

• Leaders are sluggish and passive

• Society is civil / conscientious

• Leaders and society do not care

NZ

Norway

Japan

India

USA

UK

France

Syria

Afghanistan

1

4

2

3


All four scenario quadrants are worth exploring.

• In scenario 1, the team felt that a scenario where the government is responsive to

the starting conditions and a society that is civic-minded and conscientious can

plausibly lead the country to a truly successful state like the economic models of

Norway and New Zealand.

• In scenario 2, the team thinks that even if the government is passive and unresponsive

to current situations, but if society is civic conscious and conscientious, a future state

where society drives change amidst an unresponsive government is still possible

• In scenario 3, the team is of the view that a scenario where both government and

society are unresponsive and passive in addressing current situations can potentially

lead the country into a chaotic and worsening future.

• In scenario 4, the team felt that a future in which the government will be awakened

to the current negative situation in the country and take some positive measures to

address them is also plausible. In this scenario, even if society is apathetic about the

negativity, it is plausible that change will happen and some measure of progress can

be achieved.


Scenario End States

Conscience-driven, civic consciousness

Apathy and not participative

PassiveResponsive

• Leaders are elected /selected by appointment - Process focus on

qualification and leadership training

• Values of an educated society shun money politics and

corruption

• Fixed tenure in office

• Emergence of Gen Y leaders

• Responsive –Passive- Suppressive

• Focus on K-based / technology

• Achieved developed nation status

• Lower income disparity

• Balance urban-rural population

• Self-sufficiency

• Racial /religious harmony

• AHA – self regulation/ self-sufficiency

Truly Happy Malaysia Shadow Play

Highway to HellBeast and the Beauty

• Society take charge at micro level, not macro level -

organises themselves to fight crime, freedom of speech

and ‘improved’ public service delivery

• People expect more accountability Education – initiated

by communities e.g. home, private, internet, education

and value-based education (religious, association,

industry, self-help groups)

• Society is aware of their rights and more challenging the

authorities.

• Re-emergence of neighbourhood watch

• Disintegration of society and nationhood

• New social contract- Self moderation as a necessity

• Transition to maturity of society

• Emergence of the ‘Kelantan’ syndrome

• Chaos before stability

• Unresponsive government/ Uncivilised people

• Failed state - social anarchy, highly corrupted society,

economic tribalism, brain drain, social problems

• Leaders only thinking about 2018 (GE 14)

• Ostrich mentality -leaders do not know what is

happening – WDKWDK/ Governance going backwards

• BN needs to find another party to strengthen

themselves / Malay based government – other races

and even same race upset – intra & inter ethnic issues/

social class issues

• Widespread culture of complacency & ceremonial

• Geopolitical exploitation - Build fastest train

• Economic dominance by superpower –– US & SG

collaboration to undermine Malaysia

• Malaysia breaks into 3 ‘S’ - Sabah, Sarawak, Singapore

• Initially, procurement system not transparent – direct

negotiation, nepotism, cronyism, favouritism/Too much

political intervention

• Influx of foreigners from poverty stricken countries bring along

bad culture – too many Universities / colleges

• Government and opposition are always in conflict

• Religious extremism; Social divide and distrust

• Economic system – aim to be FDI from no 8 to top 5; ease of

doing business no 6. GDP 5-5.5%; CPI 4.9; CG no.23

• A responsive government awakened by the negativity

and introduced better system and procedures & improved

enforcement

• Better education /Focus on science & mathematics/

• Swift punishment for wrongdoers

• One stop centre for investors – encourage business

• Improved enforcement – name & shame policy – deterrent

• ISA or similar regulation reinstated.

• Better race relation activities

• Selective control of immigration

• Media play a role to educate public - responsible reporting

1 2

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Shadow Play: Scenario implications

• At the start of the scenario, there were signs of initial chaos – diverse communities diverse needs and expectations – and the lack of coordinated direction

• With improved ICT and information flow, society is better informed and knows what to do

• Development of socially responsible individuals (I/ We) who desire social order• Seeing the gap in public service delivery, civil society decides what to do - No way

for the government to prevent the demand for community initiated education, meet expectations for increased professionalism, accountability

• Society understood the dilemma and conflict of priorities and was unable to meet the needs and expectations of society as a whole

• Self-governance by civil society in important areas such as security and education - society takes charge

• There were greater calls for accountability and even early election• Two possibilities: transition - disorderly but eventually someone will take initiative or

social duties / responsibilities may evolve• Without patriotism/ nationalism – implications of integrity, virtues, self- interest above

nation

Truly Happy Malaysia: Scenario implications

• Starting conditions due to negative effects of politics as the political environment was overwhelmed by populist measures triggered a wake-up call for the leadership to embrace change as well as more importantly, leadership change.

• On the education front, the urgency and call for K-based education was driven by the need to upscale the structure of the economy for global competitiveness.

• The emergence of Gen Y leaders bring about new thinking on workplace arrangements, quite similar to the developed world

• The family unit was given much more focus and attention• Calls for greater trade liberalisation requires the government to respond with more

concrete actions.• Focus on self-sufficiency especially in agriculture, energy supply and knowledge

development put the nation on the right path to growth and development. Various infrastructure including waste management, water supply, transportation and alternative were developed to support growth.

• Favourable perception of Malaysia - open and fair economy and society.• Improved quality of life as the nation pursues sustainable development economic model.


The Beast and Beauty: Scenario implications

• Developed nation status/ High income nation can be achieved if government is responsive in addressing conditions at the start of the scenario

• Malaysia’s image is transformed from crime-ridden, poor governance and low transparency to a “clean Malaysia society and image” at the end of the scenario horizon made possible by leaders doing the right things and doing things right to achieve a stable government and efficient public service contributing to regaining the nation’s economic competitiveness

• Economic development is possible if crime, education, transparency and governance is carefully addressed

• Quality of life – personal safety is possible with stringent laws introduced and effective policing

Highway to Hell : Scenario implications

• Ethnic disunity rather than unity can lead to political instability which took a turn for the

worse and along racial lines in the scenario

• Poor public service delivery and policies are not addressing real issues

• Flattery and ceremonial culture too rampant and becoming wasteful and unproductive

and resulting in “Me” first mindset and mentality rather than patriotism/nationalism

• Economic growth stagnant due to poor business confidence, monopoly by some

quarters and low skill, low technology employment, currency fluctuations and volatility

• Towards the end of the scenario, rising poverty and social dissatisfaction due to higher

cost of living, low wage increase, natural disasters and poor infrastructure resulting in

worsening quality of life and standard of living for Malaysia

• The nation is susceptible to exploitation by external parties who will attempt to

promote separation


Scenario 1 Truly Happy Malaysia:

Government is responsive and

society is civic-minded


Truly Happy Malaysia


Scenario 1 Story:Truly Happy Malaysia

In the Truly Happy Malaysia scenario, the team painted a scenario where the starting conditions of the country was feeling the negative effects of politics. The political environment was overwhelmed by populist measures such as ‘Bantuan Rakyat 1 Malaysia (BRIM) and Kedai Rakyat 1 Malaysia (KRIM)’ which imposes long term strain on the economy. The government, as it seems, was not focus on addressing the real issues such as rising crime, fraud and corruption. To add to that, the education system was not addressing the human capital needs of industry and talent drain further hampered business growth.

On the social front, there is a lot to lament about rising crime – on the streets, guns, drugs and thefts were becoming a widespread concern. In communities, house break in and violence were on the rise. Meanwhile, white collar crimes were also on the rise.

On the trade front, more and more, the forces of globalisation were forcing Malaysia to let go of the little protectionist measures for home-grown industries.

Crime, gangsterism, unemployment, low productivity and declining FDI remains high on the list of concerns of both civil society and government. Employment opportunities were largely for unskilled cheap foreign labourers.

All these events triggered a wake- up call for the leadership to embrace change as well as more importantly, leadership change.

On the education front, the urgency and call for K-based education was driven by the need to upscale the structure of the economy for global competitiveness. The structural shift in Malaysia’s economic model is needed to push the nation forward to a “developed” nation status by 2020.

Towards the end of the decade, a wake- up call at the start of the decade on talent development saw concerted efforts to grow our own timber and in time to come the nation reaps success as more Malaysian Intellectual Properties are noted in the world.

Meanwhile, a new generation of leadership works together to promote racial and religious harmony. The emergence of Gen-Y leaders bring about new thinking on workplace arrangements, quite similar to the developed world.


The family unit was given much more focus and attention. Over time, improved quality family time and values and better community relations enable the nation to make an effort to fight and reduce crime.

Communities work together to improve social harmony with many community relations activities introduced at schools, universities and neighbourhoods. There were signs of maturity in terms of managing racial and religious harmony.

At the same time, efforts were made towards achieving gradual liberalisation, partly driven by the ASEAN Economic Community. Calls for greater trade liberalisation requires the government to respond with more concrete actions. Global trade competitiveness has become more real and in no time citizens were quick to criticise “protection” of Proton.

Focus on self-sufficiency especially in agriculture, energy supply and knowledge development put the nation on the right path to growth and development. Various infrastructure including waste management, water supply, transportation and alternative were developed to support growth.

Given the right conditions, citizens were quick to respond and support the government in their efforts to push for development. In short, a first world mindset and mentality was quickly unfolding.

On the political front, a major change to fixed term tenure in office provided the basis for leaders to introduce and manage change.

Towards the end of the scenario, with government-facilitated business growth and better talent development and work culture, the nation move forward towards becoming a more developed nation with sustainable economic and environmental management models.

Malaysia soon become an envy of our neighbours and was mentioned by the World Bank as a successful economic and multicultural role model.


Truly Happy Malaysia:End States

• Leaders elected /selected by appointment - Process focus on qualification and leadership training

• Values of an educated society shun money politics and corruption

• Fixed tenure in office

• Emergence of Gen Y leaders

• Responsive –Passive- Suppressive

• Focus on K-based / technology

• Achieved developed nation status

• Lower income disparity

• Balance urban-rural population

• Self-sufficiency

• Racial /religious harmony

• AHA – self regulation/ self sufficiency/

• Gen Y leadership takes over the realm with first world mindset and mentality and the push to recognise meritocracy

• Over time, fair competition prevails and the government becomes less involved in business

• There is better trust in the new leadership styles and capability as we witness serious efforts in poverty eradication and an increasing shift towards knowledge and skill based economy rather than labour intensive industries

• With trust comes better self regulation and overall, Malaysia’s ranking in CPI improved remarkably

• Citizens enjoy better quality of work life balance


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Truly Happy Malaysia: Starting Conditions

• With GE13 and 2013 a closing chapter, the government realised the need to re-energise ETP quickly to address the economic challenges ahead. Fuel and sugar subsidies were removed and talks of implementing the GST looming.

• Money politics were shunned by all quarters – no BRIM; no KRIM but instead micro-financing is made more accessible to promote business

• Crime is a sore issue with citizens in part due to the high citizen to police ratio

• Racial and religious harmony were seen as crucial issues and concerted efforts were made to review populism in elections and race-based parties are seen as the root cause for racial disunity. Instead of vernacular schools, more inclusive national type schools are promoted

• More and more Malaysia finds itself in need to join the ASEAN Economic Community.

• To remain competitive, leaders realised the need to teach our people how to fish – skills training becomes an important focus area

• Granted the high crime rates at the start of the scenario, more focus was given to family bonding. As it becomes more difficult to employ foreign maids, business and government both promoted flexible working hours . This enables families to spend more quality time with children and promoted better home environment for learning and education

• The public realises the importance of sustainable development to support better quality of life. As such, waste management infrastructure and carbon footprints become an important measure


Truly Happy Malaysia: What Happen Next?

• On the political front, a major change to fixed term tenure in office provided the basis for leaders to introduce and manage change

• Focus on self-sufficiency especially in agriculture, energy supply and knowledge development put the nation on the right path to growth and development

• Various infrastructure including waste management, water supply, transportation and alternative were developed to support growth

• A wake-up call at the start of the decade on Talent development saw concerted efforts to grow our own timber and in time to come the nation reaps success as more Malaysian IPs are noted in the world

• Given the right conditions, citizens were quick to respond and support the government in their efforts to push for development

• In short, a first world mindset and mentality was quickly unfolding

• Competition is a stark reality and in no time citizens were quick to criticise “protection” of Proton


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For the Truly Happy Malaysia scenario to happen, the team felt that key scenario events such as a review of populist election structure must happen at the beginning of the scenario horizon. As the scenario story advances, other important events such as the introduction of the K-based syllabus, fair competition, racial and religious harmony must happen for this scenario to be plausible.

Towards the later part of the scenario timeline, meritocracy and emergence of Gen-Y leaders would support the case for this scenario to happen. The plausibility must be further supported by government becoming less involved in businesses and for the country to finally become more competitive on the global front, protection of local businesses and industries for example Proton, must be withdrawn.

Key Scenario Sign Posts



Scenario 2 Shadow Play:

Government is unresponsive or passive

but society is civic-minded and

conscientious


Shadow Play


Scenario 2 Story: Shadow Play

In Shadow Play scenario, the team painted a scenario where an ineffective government drive civil society, including NGOs, human rights groups etc. to take charge and fill in the gaps where government service left out. At least, at the micro level, society at their community level, demand that they take charge and be involved in decision-making and participation with regard to education, personal safety and security.

At the macro level, people are expecting more accountability and national direction from the government.

With the advent of the media and internet, civil society is more aware of their rights and more and more they are challenging the authorities on major decisions with regards to the quality of life, security and education.

The rising costs of living drives civil society to question the government on issues related to subsidy and Goods and Services Tax.

Moreover, prolonged inaction and impasse with regard to the direction of the education further motivated people and communities to initiate home schooling, private tuition, and internet education. Other groups such as religious groups, associations, industry, and self-help groups, were pushing for value-based education due to perceived ineffectiveness of government-assisted education initiatives.

Education is seen as social investment and cannot be taken lightly.

Citizen activism- Society organises themselves emulating the “Kelantan Syndrome”

On another note, society organises themselves in an attempt to fight crime. In the beginning of the scenario, drugs and violence were becoming serious issues and threatening peace of mind of communities and neighbourhoods. Deep down, people were really concerned with disintegration of society and nationhood as security threats and risks arising from the incursion in Lahad Datu and incidents of guns and high profile murders created the chaos and raise the risk profile of the country.


Fed up with the lack of action by the police and the government, society organizes themselves and the re-emergence of the neighbourhood watch was becoming more eminent.

Society, as it is perceived by others, appears to have adopted the “Kelantan Syndrome,” where civil society is capable of managing and organizing themselves well in a situation where government is playing a rather passive, if not inadequate role in solving societal problems.

There were early signs of transition into a more mature society as a more moderate rather than hardline approach to civil society was accepted as a way of life. The demand and expectations for independent media is a key indicator.

Concurrently, civil society regardless of religious and ethnic background has one thing in common - to fight for freedom of speech and ‘improved’ public service delivery.

Society demanded fair representation and transparency in government to resolve a lot of public issues.

After grappling with the long standing perennial issue on water supply and greater awareness on environment, the call for better accountability and compliance leads to a resolve on anti-corruption while at the same time heightened expectations of public service delivery in many key areas.

Heightened expectations of civil society were also targeted at the monarchy that is also expected to play its role where appropriate.

From race to cause

The push for implementation of the Independent Police Complaints and Misconducts Commission is another example of growing expectations by society to do things right and do the right thing. Improved social cohesion leads people to recognize and push for meritocracy and excellence.

In a way, there is a push towards merit-based performance as more and more people expect less political appointees and demand for the “best person for the position.” This was most imminent in municipal elections.


In many ways, there was clear social cohesion as communities demand and expect better integrity in business as well as in public service delivery, better security, fair politics and independent judiciary.

Transparent selection of judges

For a long time now, people are anticipating for an independent judiciary. As society becomes better informed, facilitated by the Internet and the media, the call for a more respectable judiciary in line with international standards and practices, pushes society to voice out strongly for an independent and respectable bench of judiciary towards the end of the scenario horizon.

Integrity is deemed an important societal virtue

The team also portrayed a scenario where consumer activism is strong and effectively fights for rights of consumers. This is made possible by a better informed society due to fair and transparent reporting.

Towards the end of the scenario civil society in Malaysia is modelled after the First World as the seeds were sown by rising expectations for better accountability by society in the early part of the scenario. A matured society cut across racial, religious and ethnic boundaries and works together to resolve common causes and continuously pushed for change.

In the end, we see a shift from money politics to competency-based politics on the political scene. Tighter enforcement of environmental policies led to a more sustainable environment.

The political and social environment becomes more conducive to investment and possible for the private sector driven growth. Among the major projects is water harvesting projects, green energy projects including solar power become an important national focus.


Shadow Play: End States

Society takes charge and drive changes

• Society take charge at micro level, not macro level

• Gap is filled by the civil society, NGOs etc

• Demand for them to take charge – involved in decision making/ participation

• People are expecting more accountability and national direction – society at their

community level – element of coordination is desired

• Education – initiated by communities e.g. home, private, internet, education and value-

based education (religious, association, industry, self-help groups)

• Society is aware of their rights and as such we see more challenging the authorities

• Society organises themselves to fight crime, to fight for freedom of speech and

‘improved’ public service delivery

• Re-emergence of neighbourhood watch

• Chaos and risk involved

• Disintegration of society and nationhood

• New social contract- Self moderation as a necessity

• Transition to maturity of society

• Emergence of the ‘Kelantan’ syndrome

• Development of effective conscience

• Chaos before stability

• 2018 – some elements of decentralisation

• More urbanised population – society expect different segments to play their role

• Consumer activism to fight for rights of consumers – better informed society due to fair

and transparent reporting

• NGOs are also active

• Civil society modelled after 1st world – expectations for better accountability by society

• Integrity is deemed an important societal virtue

• In the end, a matured society pushed for change

• A shift from money politics to competency-based politics

• Tighter enforcement of environmental policies

• Private sector driven growth- Water harvesting projects, green energy including solar

power become an important national focus

• Judiciary is respectable and independent


Shad

ow P

lay:

Sce

nar

io L

og

ic


Shadow Play: Starting Conditions

Unresponsive government

• Representative not considered as leaders

• Too preoccupied with politics and politicking

• Less and lack accountability and poor execution of policies leading to public outcry - chaos

• Gradual decline of power distance

• Non Transparent policies

• Investment in technology including ICT and media

• Status Quo on reports – NATO/ OIC

• ASEAN integration see the need for trade liberalisation and competition

• Introduction of GST, poorly communicated objectives

• Frustration of citizens due to high cost of living, low wages, high unemployment of graduates

• Confused education system and public policies

• No execution, no delivery

• Rising crime (drugs and violence) lead to citizen activism

• Growing awareness on environmental issues


Shadow Play: What happen next?

Society takes charge & drive changes

• Demand for early election

• Business – for self, own

• “ME” society:

• Crime

• Talent development

• Investment + EC

• Policies

• Business

• Employment

• Greater expectation for monarchy to play its role

• Greater demand for better accountability and heightened anti corruption expectations in public service

• Education is seen as social investment – community initiated education

• Improved social cohesion leading to recognition for meritocracy and excellence

• Concerns on water resource management

• Demand for fair elections at municipal level

• Delineation of election boundaries – change of government to more accountable

• Expectations of citizens for transparent appointment of judges

• Demand for independent media and reporting


Shad

ow P

lay

: Key

Sce

nar

io S

ign

Po

sts

Greater

awareness on

environm

ent

Ci/zen ac/vism

Gradual

decline of

power

distance

Social cohesion

Expecta/on of

monarchy to

play its role

Greater dem

and

accountability

Transparent

selec/on of

judges

Gradual

decline of

power

distance

Community

ini/ated

educa/on

Merit & Meritocracy

Best person for posi/on

Independent judiciary

‘New

’ poli/cs

From

money

poli/cs to

competency nature

poli/cs

Deliena/on of elec/on boundaries


The Shadow Play scenario is driven by greater conscience, consciousness and awareness by the civil society of the environment, crime and chaos, and more importantly the demand for greater accountability. More and more of the public do not consider their elected “representatives” as leaders as they are viewed as too preoccupied with politics and politicking. As a result, the lack of accountability and poor execution of policies leads to public outcry. Citizen activism rise to the occasion, filling the gap where public service failed.

Over time, the key scenario signpost in the Shadow Play scenario sees community-initiated services such as education and in residential security. The demand for meritocracy becomes more pressing as the public expects the best person for the position. The demand for greater transparency in the judiciary and greater expectations for the monarchy to play its role further see the push for change.

The team felt that an important scenario signpost is the push for delineation of the election boundaries to happen. Towards the end of scenario, the team felt that there is a gradual shift from money politics of the past to the competency-driven politics of the future. The emergence of new politics for Malaysia happens and a transparent and independent judiciary becomes a reality for Malaysia.



Scenario 3 Highway to Hell:

Government is unresponsive

and society is also not

civic-minded


Highway to Hell


Scenario 3 story: Highway to Hell

In the “Highway to Hell” scenario, the team painted a scenario where rampant nepotism and cronyism and sheer ignorance of excellence at the start of the scenario timeline, set the scene for poor ethical commitment.

Bribery and corruption is widespread, resulting in sub-standard and poor quality of public infrastructure and facilities provided. The public is angry with misuse of government money and failure of major projects.

The lack of enforcement continues to frustrate the public. The Judiciary system is not entirely independent and offenders continue to commit without guilt as they can easily slip past the grip of law.

Environmental calamities and issues are given low priority and the “couldn’t careless attitude” of politicians paying “lip service” is quite obvious.

Little Napoleons in public service causes delays and choking approvals and coupled with irresponsible leaders who lack vision, economic development is going nowhere.

The culture of complacency and greed; tolerance of incompetency was breeding in a situation where leaders and society in general could not careless.

Inefficient public service delivery and a private sector driven by “get rich quick” mentality instead of building sustainable business models. Governance going backwards and deteriorating.

The failure to develop a new mode of thinking to resolve the problems was obvious and frustrating. Leaders fail to communicate vision that inspires commitment.

In short, it was clear to the public that leaders are not able to envision the face of tomorrow in the mirror of today. Combined with the high and rising crime rates, public dissatisfaction was at its peak.

A weakened ringgit battered by lack of direction of the economy harbours a black market foreign currency.


With little focus on technology, many talented Malaysians migrated in search of better job opportunities due to the low salary and wages. Meanwhile, Malaysians who remained behind continued to shun low paying jobs at home. These jobs continued to be performed by migrant workers from under developed countries.

Their presence in bigger numbers also sees congested public facilities and services. Malaysians in general were angry at long queues in hospitals and highly congested public transportation services.

The inconveniences while taking a toll on the quality of life, further created public distrust on public service delivery.

Meanwhile, nepotism and cronyism is creating wealth for a different class of Malaysians. Over time, the fabric of society sees a widening gap between the rich and the poor. In fact, Malaysian society was seeing several classes of people. Among these are the urban poor, the rural poor, the wealthy businessmen and the affluent professional as well as the working class.

It was also not wrong to conclude that in this context, the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer, due to rising costs of living and low wages.

FDI and investment at all-time low

Signs were beginning to point to the fact that a non- inclusive economic model does not work for the country. Talented Malaysians continue to leave for higher salary elsewhere.

Business confidence is poor while FDI and business investment is at all-time low. Despite having a good legal framework in place, enforcement remains poor and ineffective as bribery and corruption are widespread.

As a result, the economy continues to depend on low unsophisticated technology to support its growth. The telecommunications service, a major backbone to support and fuel growth in the 21st century, becomes stagnant over time due to low re-investment by the sector.

The country remains trapped in the “middle income” band while its neighbours moved on.


High Inflation

Rising cost of living is the key concern of the rakyat. The need for fiscal structural adjustment and consolidation process to lower overall balance of Federal Government finance, which has been persistently in deficit for more than 15 years, triggered policy-driven inflation, although largely externally-driven.

Budget deficit and fiscal indiscipline was ultimately affecting macroeconomic performance, particularly inflation. Long-delayed fiscal deficit corrective measures, although are undeniably necessary, was being implemented, one after another similar to shock therapy, resulted in overshooting of consumer prices and rising cost of living.

As expectations that other measures are also in the pipeline, coupled with almost across-the-board ringgit depreciation and pressure on rising wages, the inflation genie is clearly rearing its ugly head again and could turn bigger, fuelled simultaneously by both cost-push and demand-pull factors, creating an almost a perfect scenario for persistently high inflation, not yet accustomed to members of the public or rakyat in Malaysia.

Inflation continues unabated as policy-driven measures arising from fiscal structural adjustment through subsidy rationalization and broadening of the tax base by implementing goods and services tax (GST), effective on 1 April 2015.

Minimum wage policy and currency depreciation, aimed at boosting exports and avoiding shrinking current account surplus provide additional sparks for rising prices and cost of living in the country.

Infrastructure development takes a big step backward due to widening fiscal deficits. In the end, the environment suffers and falls into dilapidated conditions.

Race-based political parties emerges

Fed up, race-based political parties emerged driven in part by the widening economic gap. Ethnic conflicts become common, further confusing the citizens.

Meanwhile, the education syllabus lacks nationalism and patriotism, does not help in racial unity. Prolonged state of self above the nation resulted in tremendous erosion of values in Malaysian society.


To many people, ‘cash is king’ in Malaysian society, while noble values such as respect for one another, respect to elders and human rights are compromised.

Integrity and honesty, no longer become the norm of Malaysian value system.

Failed state

Signs are leading the nation to a failed state as the country nearly inched towards military rule. Security is poor, both on land and at sea. At sea, pirates are king.

Intra and inter- ethnic issues in addition to socio-economic and class issues raised public anger to an all- time high.

Public frustration with leaders who adopted the “Ostrich mentality” - do not want to know what is happening and only thinking about GE 14 further aggravated the situation.

Instead, a widespread culture of complacency that is becoming too engrossed with ceremony, flattery and protocols is becoming a burden to the cost of doing business.

Granted the weaknesses, the nation becomes subjected to geopolitical exploitation by outsiders who have many hidden agenda.


Highway to Hell:End States

• Signs are leading the nation to a failed state as the country nearly inched towards Military rule

• Culture of complacency and greed; tolerance of incompetency

• Inefficient public service delivery and a private sector driven by “get rich quick” mentality instead of building sustainable business models

• Governance going backwards and deteriorating

• Education syllabus lacks nationalism and patriotism, does not help in racial unity

• Moving towards a “failed state” - social anarchy, highly corrupted society, economic tribalism, brain drain, social problems

• Ostrich mentality -leaders do not want to know what is happening – WWDKWDK and only thinking about 2017/2018 (GE 14)

• BN needs to find another party to strengthen themselves (Malay based government – other races and even same race upset – intra and inter ethnic issues on top of social class issues)

• Widespread culture of complacency and becoming too engrossed with ceremony and flattery/protocols

• Geopolitical exploitation by outsiders – Pretext of building fastest train with hidden agenda and implications

• Economic dominance by superpower –– USA & Singapore collaboration to undermine Malaysia

• Malaysia risks breaking into 3 ‘S’ - Sabah, Sarawak, Singapore


Hig

hway

to H

ell:

Scen

ario

Lo

gic


Highway to Hell:Starting Conditions

• At the start of the scenario timeline, rampant nepotism and cronyism and sheer ignorance of excellence set the scene for poor ethical commitment

• As bribery and corruption is also widespread, poor quality public amenities and facilities are provided

• Environmental calamities and issues are given low priority and the “couldn’t careless attitude” of politicians paying “lip service” is quite obvious

• Little “Napoleons” in public service causes delays and choking approvals and coupled with irresponsible leaders who lacks vision, economic development is going nowhere

• Leaders are not able to envision the face of tomorrow in the mirror of today

• Combined with the high and rising crime rates, public dissatisfaction was at its peak

• A weakened ringgit battered by lack of direction of the economy harbours a black market foreign currency

• With little focus on technology, many talented Malaysians migrated in search of better job opportunities


Highway to Hell:What Happen Next?

• As a result, the rich gets richer and the poor gets poorer

• FDI and business investment is at all time low

• The country remains trapped in the “middle income” band while its neighbours moved on

• Signs are pointing to the fact that a non inclusive economic model does not work

• Telecommunications service remain stagnant due to low re-investment by the sector. As a result, the economy continues to depend on low unsophisticated technology to support its growth

• Leaders fail to communicate vision that inspires commitment

• Despite having a good legal framework in place, enforcement remains poor and ineffective

• The Judiciary system is not entirely independent and offenders continue to commit without guilt as they can easily slip past the grip of law

• Widespread poverty is evident due to high unemployment

• Erosion of values is seen as cash is king.

• Fed up, race-based political parties emerges driven in part by the widening economic gap

• Ethnic conflicts become common, further confusing the citizens

• Security is poor, both on land and at sea. At sea, pirates are king.

• Infrastructure development takes a big step backward

• In the end, the environment suffers and fall into dilapidated conditions

• Business confidence is poor


Hig

hway

to H

ell:

Key

Sce

nar

io S

ign

po

sts

Poor

en

forc

emen

t of

polic

ies

Envi

ronm

enta

l is

sues

take

s lo

w p

riorit

y

Dis

trus

t of

pub

lic

serv

ice

Soci

al u

nres

t

Non

incl

usiv

e ec

onom

y

Use

of v

ery

basi

c/si

mpl

e te

chno

logy Po

or

busi

ness

co

nfide

nce

Inde

pend

ence

of

judi

ciar

y qu

estio

nabl

e

Wid

enin

g ec

onom

ic g

ap

Mul

tirac

ial p

artie

s

Brai

n D

rain

Polic

e st

ate

Labo

ur in

tens

ive

econ

omy

Wid

espr

ead

pove

rty

Pira

tes

rule

the

sea

Non

incl

usiv

e ec

onom

y

Mor

e is

sue

with

dis

aste

rs Po

llute

d en

viro

nmen

t


At the start of this scenario, poor enforcement of policies created distrust of the public services. Environmental issues take low priority leading poor sustainability of economic development and deterioration of public infrastructure.

The team felt that further mistakes were not corrected by the government as the economy continue to build on simple and basic technology as a result of brain drain or the outward migration of talents to other countries.

The country continues to build on labour intensive economic model; wages remain stagnant resulting in widespread poverty and poor business confidence. As a result of the non-inclusive economic model, the poor get poorer while the rich get richer.

Towards the end, the country witnesses a widening wealth gap among its citizens. Natural disasters resulting from drought, flooding and landslides further led to social dissatisfaction. The government of the day is kept busy with having to grapple with socio-economic and environmental problems. Meanwhile, these events gradually led to deterioration and chaos, making the country volatile and exposed to external risks and attacks.

Key Scenario Sign posts


Scenario 4The Beast and Beauty:

Government is responsiveand

society is civil


The Beast and Beauty

Beast & Beauty


Scenario 4 Story The Beast and Beauty

In Beast and the Beauty scenario, the team portrayed a scenario where poor showings of the country in global rankings in 2013, prompted the Government to take drastic measures to respond to the decline.

In terms of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Malaysia was ranked no.8 in Asia, Ease of Doing Business (EoDB) no.6, Corporate Governance (CG) no.23, Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) score 4.9/10 and GDP fall short of the 5-5.5% target. Other weaknesses were also highlighted by risk assessment agencies, World Bank etc. and these include low integrity index; opaque procurement system; direct negotiations in government tenders; cronyism; nepotism; favouritism; political intervention and high rent-seeking activities.

In addition to the poor showings in global ranking, high crime rates and widening racial and wealth divide were also crippling the nation’s image. This was made worse by the high entry of low skilled migrants and the high number of universities and colleges that draws students from Third World countries.

The influx of bad influences (drugs, human trafficking and prostitution) associated with foreign students and crimes committed by foreigners further aggravated the image of Malaysia. To make matters worse, religious extremism rears its ugly head. The social and economic problems aggravated the political conflicts and led to public distrust and anger.

Towards 2017/2018, as the next election draws closer, this situation nudged a wake-up call to the leaders. The leaders were determined to respond to key areas.

Starting with improved enforcement, the Internal Security Act or law of similar effect was introduced and enforced. Better employment terms are provided for key law enforcement officers and more importantly, the Chief Commissioner of Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission is now appointed under the Constitution to ensure better impartiality.

Meanwhile, draconian laws are introduced to curb rent seeking and make it illegal. Over time several “big fish” are caught and “name and shame” becomes a form of social punishment.

The government takes a serious view on government tender processes and introduces change in procurement policy. This was to be a nascent start to the merit based procurement process and a step forward towards greater transparency, as expected by many parties.


Meanwhile, many corporations in the private sector were already increasing self-regulation, partly to conform to more stringent international regulations as well as banks and financial authorities.

The fact that greater transparency equals greater integrity motivates business leaders to want to move in the right direction.

Stringent policies on declaration of donors, funding and donation into party account are closely adhered to, given the severe punishments.

The government is intent on creating better awareness on religious teachings and this leads to arrests of fanatics.

Race relations are taken seriously and activities to promote better relations take centre stage at community and school levels. Meanwhile, immigration policies are reviewed and selective control of immigration procedures are put in place to provide good filter of migrant population.

On the economic front, the government continues to pursue efforts on streamlining of investment rules to attract FDI.

Education as the government realised is not to be taken lightly. Through careful consultation with the business, the education sector works to resolve and meet the human capital needs of the business. Prime focus on science and mathematics education by the education sector started to put the nation on the right path towards becoming a developed nation status.

On the media front, the clever use of the media for responsible social media reporting means that stern action will be taken against wrongful reporting. Over time, a shift towards more responsible reporting helps to curtail the declining image of the country and this couple with good infrastructure and resourceful human capital, in some ways help to improve the country’s global ranking over time.

The education system succeeded in developing an indigenous pool of talent and this, together with lower crime and public service efficiency, attracted more inflow of FDI.

Towards the end of the scenario, Malaysia becomes one of the top 5 nations in terms of EoDB, its CPI registered 8.0; top 10 in terms of corporate governance and GDP registered a 7% growth per annum supported by strong FDI inflows.

The beast that it once was - is now a picture of beauty, admired by many.


The Beast and Beauty: End States

• Initially, procurement system is not transparent – direct negotiation, nepotism, cronyism, favouritism/Too much political intervention

• Influx of foreigners from poverty stricken countries bring along bad culture – too many Universities & colleges

• Govt & opposition are always in conflict

• Religious extremism; Social divide and distrust

• Economic system – aim to be FDI from no 8 to top 5; ease of doing business no 6. GDP 5-5.5%; CPI 4.9; CG no.23

• A responsive govt - Better system and procedures and improved enforcement

• Better education / Focus on science and mathematics

• Swift punishment for wrongdoers

• One stop centre for investors – encourage business

• Improved enforcement – name and shame policy – deterrent

• ISA or similar regulation reinstated.

• Better race relation activities

• Selective control of immigration

• Media play a role to educate public - responsible reporting

• Towards the end of the decade, it is quite apparent that the nation is moving towards more transparent procurement system and processes and is supported by a transparent and accountable public service quite similar to the developed world

• Overall, the country’s crime rate has declined significantly with better policing and stringent laws

• With better race relations, there is stronger awareness on patriotism and this is apparent at international events where Malaysians of all races and ethnicity give their best performances

• The education system succeeded in developing an indigenous pool of talent and this, together with lower crime and public service efficiency, attracted more inflow of FDI

• The path taken by the government makes Malaysia an envy to its neighbours and a showcase of an economic miracle

• Towards the end, Malaysia becomes one of the top 5 nations in terms of EoDB, its CPI registered 8.0; top 10 in terms of corporate governance and GDP registered a 7% growth per annum supported by strong FDI inflows.


The

Bea

st a

nd

Bea

uty

: Sce

nar

io L

og

ic

↑ ENTR

Y OF FO

REIGNER

GOVT

/OPP

O. C

ONFLICT

RELIGIOUS EX

TREM

ISM

SOCIAL

DIVIDE/DISTRU

ST

215 UNI &

COLLEG

E BA

D IM

AGE CR

EATED

INFLUX OF BA

D INFLUEN

CE

LOW IN

TEGRITY

INDE

X OPA

QUE PR

OCU

REMEN

T

SYSTEM

DIRE

CT NEG

O

CRONYISM

, NEP

OTISM

FA

VOURITISM

PO

LITICA

L INTERV

ENTION

HIGH RE

NT SEEK

ING

ACTIVIITIES

FDI N

O.8 IN

ASIA

EoDB

NO.6

CG NO.23

CPI =4.9

GDP

5-‐5.5%

R E P O

N

S I V E L E A D E R S H I P

SOCIETAL

VAL

UES APA

THY

2013

20

15

2016

20

18

2020

BETTER

EMPLOYM

ENT TERM

FOR

KEY LAW ENFO

RCEM

ENT

OFFICER

S

SYSTEM

PR

OCE

DURE

↑

IMPR

OVE

D EN

FORC

EMEN

T

BETTER

ED

UCA

TION

SWIFT PU

NISHM

ENT

FOR WRO

NGD

OER

S STRE

AMLINING OF

INVE

STMEN

T RU

LES

TO ATTRA

CT FDI

ONE STOP CE

NTR

E FO

R INVE

STMEN

T

APPO

INTM

ENT OF

MAC

C CO

MMISSIONER

UNDE

R CO

NSTITUTION

NAM

E & SHA

ME

BIG FISH

CAU

GHT

RENT SEEKING

ILLEGA

L

MER

IT BAS

ED

PROCU

REMEN

T PR

OCE

SS

CHAN

GE IN

PR

OCU

REMEN

T PO

LICY

↑ PRIVA

TE

SECT

OR SELF

REGU

LATION

DECLAR

ATION

OF DO

NORS,

FUNDING &

DONAT

ION

INTO

PAR

TY

ACCO

UNT

AMEN

DMEN

T OF SO

CIETY AC

T FO

R PO

LITICA

L CO

NTR

IBUTION

LOW CRIME

RATE

ISA/SIMILAR

LAW

RE

INSTAT

ED

GOV. CRE

ATES

MORE

AW

AREN

ESS

ON RELIGIOUS

TEAC

HINGS

MORE

ARR

ESTS

OF FA

NAT

ICS

BETTER

RAC

E RE

LATIONS

ACTIVITIES

SELECT

IVE

CONTR

OL

IMMIGRA

TION

PROCE

DURE

S

IMPR

OVE

D RA

CIAL SOCIAL

HARM

ONY

EDUCA

TION

BY M

EDIA

CONSO

LIDA

TION OF

EDUCA

TION

POLICIES TO M

EET

BIZ RE

QUIREM

ENT

ENCO

URA

GE

RESPONSIBLE SO

CIAL

MED

IA REPORT

ING

FOCU

S ON

SCIENCE

&

MAT

H ED

UCA

TION

STRICT

LAW

S AG

AINST

WRO

NGF

UL

REPO

RTING

PROMOTE

ENGL

ISH

LANGU

AGE

INCE

NTIVE

TO

BIZ TO

BRING

HOME TA

LENT

TRAN

SPAR

ENT &

ACCO

UNTA

BLE

PUBLIC SER

V.

TRAN

SPAR

ENT

PROCU

REMEN

T SYSTEM

&

PROCE

SSES

SAFER

ENVIRO

NMEN

T

SHOWCA

SE

SUCC

ESS

STORY

DEVE

LOP

TALENT

POOL

↑ RAC

E RE

LATION

PUBLIC SEC

TOR

EFFICIEN

CY

IMPR

OVE

D QUALITY OF LIFE

PATR

IOTISM

CPI 8.0

EoDB

TO

P 5

CG

TOP 10

GDP 7%

↑ FDI


The Beast and Beauty: Starting Conditions

• In this scenario the Leaders are responsive and the Government did 3 key things: improve on people, process and system; education

• Government is concerned about poor showing of key economic indicators in global ranking (FDI NO.8 IN ASIA,EoDB NO.6, CG NO.23, CPI =4.9 and GDP 5-5.5%)

• Other weaknesses were also highlighted by risk assessment agencies, World Bank etc. and these include low integrity index; opaque procurement system; direct negotiations in government tenders; cronyism; nepotism; favouritism; political intervention and high rent seeking activities

• Constant friction and conflict between the Government and the Opposition party leading to stand offs and standstill

• Religious extremism rears its ugly head

• Social divide wedged by rich-poor gap and urban-rural geographical divide leading to distrust and anger

• High entry of foreigners into the country leading to high number of low skilled migrants further worsened by the high number of universities and colleges that draws students from 3rd world countries

• Influx of bad influences (drugs, human trafficking and prostitution) associated with foreign students and crimes committed by foreigners further aggravated the image of Malaysia


The Beast and Beauty: What Happen Next?

• The spate of negative events and results spurred the government to take drastic actions• Starting with improved enforcement, the ISA or law of similar effect was introduced and

enforced

• The government is intent on creating better awareness on religious teachings and this leads to arrests of fanatics

• Race relations are taken seriously and activities to promote better relations take centre stage

• Meanwhile, immigration policies are reviewed and selective control of immigration procedures are put in place to provide good filter of migrant population

• Draconian laws are introduced to curb rent seeking and make it illegal. over time several “big fish” are caught and “name and shame” becomes a form of social punishment

• The government takes a serious view on government tender processes and introduce change in procurement policy. This was to be a nascent start to the merit based procurement process

• Meanwhile the private sector follow suit by increasing self regulation. stringent policies on declaration of donors, funding and donation into party account are closely adhered to, given the severe punishment

• The Society Act for political contribution was accordingly amended and proper systems and procedures are put in place. Soon, swifter punishment for wrongdoers becomes a deterrent

• Better employment terms are provided for key law enforcement officers and more importantly, the MACC Commissioner is now appointed under the Constitution to ensure better impartiality

• On the business front, the government continues to pursue efforts on streamlining of investment rules to attract FDI

• Education as the government realised is not to be taken lightly. Through careful consultation with the business, the education sector works to resolve and meet the human capital needs of the business.

• Prime focus on science and mathematics education by the education sector started to put the nation on the right path towards becoming a developed nation status

• On the media front, the artful use of the media for responsible social media reporting means that stern action will be taken against wrongful reporting


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Key Scenario Sign PostsIn the Beast and Beauty scenario, the team flagged out improved enforcement as the start for improving the conditions in the country. Leaders are responsive and the Government did three key things: improve on people, processes and systems; and education. The spate of negative events and results spurred the government to take drastic actions.

Starting with improved enforcement, the ISA or law of similar effect was introduced and enforced. Draconian laws are introduced to curb rent seeking and make it illegal. Over time several “big fish” are caught and “name and shame” becomes a form of social punishment.

Better employment terms are provided for key law enforcement officers and more importantly, the MACC Commissioner is now appointed under the Constitution to ensure better impartiality On the business front, the government continues to pursue efforts on streamlining of investment rules to attract FDI.

Education as the government realised is not to be taken lightly. Through careful consultation with the business, the education sector works to resolve and meet the human capital needs of the business. Prime focus on science and mathematics education by the education sector started to put the nation on the right path towards becoming a developed nation status.

On the business front, the government continues to pursue efforts on streamlining of investment rules to attract FDI. Towards the end of the scenario, Malaysia becomes one of the top 5 nations in terms of EoDB, its CPI registered 8.0; top 10 in terms of corporate governance and GDP registered a 7% growth per annum supported by strong FDI inflows.


Post Remarkable Persons Review


Common scenario implications

• Societal values can have impact on future direction of socio-economic progress of the nation – honesty and integrity affects good governance and transparent practices in both public and private sectors

• Family and education systems contributed to nurturing good societal values as these part a major part in developing future leaders

• Social class divide is becoming more predominant with the following key socio-economic features emerging or continuing :

- Peasantry and growing number of poor families - Economic tribalism with 10-12 families dominating the economy - Collusion of rich and powerful - Flattery and ceremonial culture too rampant and becoming wasteful and

unproductive

• Society’s desire for social order and inclination to self governance in areas where government appears incapacitated; also partly attributed to the general lack of macro / national direction and vision, rising crime; widespread corruption; nepotism, cronyism and political intervention; perceived religious extremism; negative media reports about Malaysia

• General lack of social or national consciousness and “patriotism appears to take a back seat whilst a “despicable ME first” mentality is quietly emerging

• Lack of transparency and good governance hampering economic growth, public service delivery, dampening harmonious relationships and poor image

• Economic growth quite stagnant due to poor business confidence, monopoly by some quarters and low skill, low technology employment, currency fluctuations and volatility

• A sustainable economic development model is urgent needed to address resource and talent needs


Based on the scenarios developed by the team, the nation has possibility of heading into three different directions making a concerted effort and choice is crucial to determine which way it wants to head into.

VIRTUOUS SOCIETY Civic-minded and patriotic; matured society that

values integrity and shuns corrupt practices

Despicable “Me” first

society

FAILED STATE Chaos,

disharmony, directionless, self interest groups, exploitation by outside parties


What strategic options do we have?

• Review of national strategic initiatives to assess overlap of issues to be responsive to social / societal issues on crime, corruption, patriotism, poverty etc

• A revisit of the “family” as a societal institution to nurture youths and their future emerging role in society as well as nurturing virtuous values

• Review of the economic development model – to ensure the nation can become more self -sufficient and self-reliant especially on food security, technology, talent and human capital

• Move beyond studies and theories and execute strategies well in these areas

Malaysia’s goal on integrity is “To be best in class in terms of integrity, compliance and governance.”

What is stopping us from getting there?

Key obstacles flagged out in the scenarios include:

• Gossip sells rather facts – effectiveness of communication of messages and medium

• Acceptance of mediocrity – selection and choice of leaders

• Declining productivity- attributed to congested infrastructure (traffic jams, poor public transportation, speed of broad band, talent gaps, water rationing, floods, haze etc)

• Distrust – of systems provided by the government (education, safety and security related issues, declining quality of life, rampant corruption, gap between vision and reality)

• “Self - interest ” first rather than national interest (poor civic mindedness and consciousness, family values, lack of caring attitude and volunteerism etc.)

• Liberal values versus traditional values


What is next?- Some questions for consideration

• What should be our strategies for managing change?

• What policies and guidelines should be address?

• What is our goal to guide the public policy actions?

It is recommended that the Malaysian Institute of Integrity (IIM) continue to identify and work with target partners to address respective areas with regard to the following to address the key uncertainties in the scenarios and ensure that these are tracked and monitored:

• Family institution – inculcating good values amongst youths, role of working women

• Education and schooling – Mathematics and science education, K-syllabus

• Race and ethnic relations (e.g. National Service programmes)

• Department of Environment on environment and sustainability – how corrupt business practices can harm the environment and jeopardise sustainable development in the long term

• Ministry of Home Affairs – understanding the youth mindset, migrant mindset on why crimes are committed

In the whole journey of this Scenario Planning: Integrity project exercise, it was determined that the future well-being of this country is influenced by two key factors i.e. responsiveness of the government and conscience-driven or civil conscientiousness of our society. While there are many permutations of how these two factors could vary and influence our socio-economics and political landscape, the four scenarios developed in this exercise provide some good ideas about the possible extremes of outcomes when the two factors exists or are compromised. Hence, it is logical to explore further how these factors could be strengthened further in order for the new Malaysia to move towards the more positive side of the scenarios. While systems and processes could to a certain extent influence how the government and its agencies operate, the level of responsiveness is very much dependent on the values and beliefs which lie in the hearts and minds of those in-charge, at every level. The same could be said regarding the conscience of the society. In the context of Malaysia, which is a multi-racial, multi-lingual and multi-religions nation, the efforts to direct or influence the hearts and minds would be very challenging.


The Malaysian Institute of Integrity, as the people’s institution that carry the trust and voice of conscience, is well-placed to serve and steer this agenda further.

Recognising the above, any effort to drive the government and society towards behaviours which would bring better outcomes must be well-planned, effectively executed, well-financed and sustainable over a long period of time. This will involve many stakeholders that are willing to work together to achieve a common vision of the new Malaysia. Hence, a long term plan which is founded on the aspirations and ideas of these diverse groups would be the uniting factor and would anchor the various efforts which are necessary to influence and instil values and beliefs which would drive Malaysians to play their respective roles accordingly.

We must work towards realizing the Truly Happy Malaysia scenario and avoid ending up in the Highway to Hell scenario. It is possible to make it a reality if we collectively agree to work hard and sacrifice our individual self-interests to leave a great legacy to our children and future generations of Malaysians. The saying of “we do not just inherit the earth from our ancestors but borrowing it from our children” is apt.


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