New Local Climate New Local Climate Outlook Products from Outlook Products from the NWS the NWS Jay Breidenbach NOAA/National Weather Service
New Local Climate Outlook New Local Climate Outlook Products from the NWSProducts from the NWS
Jay BreidenbachNOAA/National Weather Service
OutlineOutline
Introduce the new Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook (L3MTO)
Where to find Climate Products on Web Downscaling Methodology Product Benefits and Limitations Future Local Climate Products
L3MTO FactsL3MTO Facts
The NWS is downscaling/transforming Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) large scale 3-month temperature outlooks to specific locations
The L3MTO is:• Produced centrally at CPC • Disseminated via local WFO climate websites• Released simultaneously with CPC’s 3-month
outlook product suite (3rd Thursday every month)
• Produced for approximately 10 sites per WFO, or about 1150 sites nationwide – can potentially increase to ~4,000 sites
How the Product was DevelopedHow the Product was Developed
CD data Station data
Regression Analysis1971-2000
1994-2003 Trend Significance
Station Forecast Solution
Verification filter
Annual routine:
CPC CD forecastMean and St. Dev.
Monthly routine:
NoSignificant?
Bivariate statisticsRegression Coefficients
Intercept Adjustment
Yes
SufficientScore?
Forecast data
Distribution and Display
Yes
Climatology Data
No
December - January - February1971-2000
y = 0.9166x + 8.5689
R2 = 0.9581
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
20 25 30 35 40 45CD43 Temperature (deg F)
TU
L T
emp
erat
ure
(d
eg F
)
y = mx + b (where m = slope and b = y-intercept)
33.033.0
38.838.8
Graph Courtesy of Nicole Kempf
Outlook EvaluationOutlook Evaluation
Access to the outlook evaluation is available on every display of the L3MTO
This tool can be used for both the national and the local 3-month temperature outlooks
Evaluation statistics can be computed for any combination of 3-month periods and/or years during 1994 to present (2003)
Allows the user to select different types of skill scores
Questions and FeedbackQuestions and Feedback
The “Questions and Feedback” tab links users to an online form to provide comments
User feedback is important, as this product will be evolving based on this feedback.
The L3MTO is now Available on The L3MTO is now Available on all WFO Websitesall WFO Websites
http://www.weather.gov/climate/l3mto.php
L3MTO BenefitsL3MTO Benefits
More spatial detail – higher resolution outlooks
The L3TMO suite provides multiple presentation formats to accommodate a wide range of users
Includes helpful resources for interpretation
Available locally, on all WFO webpages; higher visibility
L3MTO LimitationsL3MTO Limitations
Does not provide detail about the month-to-month or day-to-day variability
It’s a probabilistic forecast
• more challenging to explain
Because this product is an extension of the national 3-month outlook to the local level, it will naturally inherit the national product’s skill
What About Precipitation?What About Precipitation?
Precipitation is a much more complicated element to downscale
The precipitation downscaling methodology is under development
The product’s webpage design will be identical to the L3MTO design
ENSO Based CompositesENSO Based Composites
Initially will include temperature and precipitation
Eventually other parameters will be added – WFOs will choose
ENSO based composites will be combined with CPC’s Nino 3.4 SST forecast – if the results are significant, then a forecast will accompany the L3MTO.